Risk of vascular events in patients with polymyalgia rheumatica

Background:

Polymyalgia rheumatica is one of the most common inflammatory rheumatologic conditions in older adults. Other inflammatory rheumatologic disorders are associated with an excess risk of vascular disease. We investigated whether polymyalgia rheumatica is associated with an increased risk of vascular events.

Methods:

We used the General Practice Research Database to identify patients with a diagnosis of incident polymyalgia rheumatica between Jan. 1, 1987, and Dec. 31, 1999. Patients were matched by age, sex and practice with up to 5 patients without polymyalgia rheumatica. Patients were followed until their first vascular event (cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, peripheral vascular) or the end of available records (May 2011). All participants were free of vascular disease before the diagnosis of polymyalgia rheumatica (or matched date). We used Cox regression models to compare time to first vascular event in patients with and without polymyalgia rheumatica.

Results:

A total of 3249 patients with polymyalgia rheumatica and 12 735 patients without were included in the final sample. Over a median follow-up period of 7.8 (interquartile range 3.3–12.4) years, the rate of vascular events was higher among patients with polymyalgia rheumatica than among those without (36.1 v. 12.2 per 1000 person-years; adjusted hazard ratio 2.6, 95% confidence interval 2.4–2.9). The increased risk of a vascular event was similar for each vascular disease end point. The magnitude of risk was higher in early disease and in patients younger than 60 years at diagnosis.

Interpretation:

Patients with polymyalgia rheumatica have an increased risk of vascular events. This risk is greatest in the youngest age groups. As with other forms of inflammatory arthritis, patients with polymyalgia rheumatica should have their vascular risk factors identified and actively managed to reduce this excess risk.Inflammatory rheumatologic disorders such as rheumatoid arthritis,^1,2 systemic lupus erythematosus,^2,3 gout,⁴ psoriatic arthritis^2,5 and ankylosing spondylitis^2,6 are associated with an increased risk of vascular disease, especially cardiovascular disease, leading to substantial morbidity and premature death.^2–6 Recognition of this excess vascular risk has led to management guidelines advocating screening for and management of vascular risk factors.^7–9Polymyalgia rheumatica is one of the most common inflammatory rheumatologic conditions in older adults,¹⁰ with a lifetime risk of 2.4% for women and 1.7% for men.¹¹ To date, evidence regarding the risk of vascular disease in patients with polymyalgia rheumatica is unclear. There are a number of biologically plausible mechanisms between polymyalgia rheumatica and vascular disease. These include the inflammatory burden of the disease,^12,13 the association of the disease with giant cell arteritis (causing an inflammatory vasculopathy, which may lead to subclinical arteritis, stenosis or aneurysms),¹⁴ and the adverse effects of long-term corticosteroid treatment (e.g., diabetes, hypertension and dyslipidemia).^15,16 Paradoxically, however, use of corticosteroids in patients with polymyalgia rheumatica may actually decrease vascular risk by controlling inflammation.¹⁷ A recent systematic review concluded that although some evidence exists to support an association between vascular disease and polymyalgia rheumatica,¹⁸ the existing literature presents conflicting results, with some studies reporting an excess risk of vascular disease^19,20 and vascular death,^21,22 and others reporting no association.^23–26 Most current studies are limited by poor methodologic quality and small samples, and are based on secondary care cohorts, who may have more severe disease, yet most patients with polymyalgia rheumatica receive treatment exclusively in primary care.²⁷The General Practice Research Database (GPRD), based in the United Kingdom, is a large electronic system for primary care records. It has been used as a data source for previous studies,²⁸ including studies on the association of inflammatory conditions with vascular disease²⁹ and on the epidemiology of polymyalgia rheumatica in the UK.³⁰ The aim of the current study was to examine the association between polymyalgia rheumatica and vascular disease in a primary care population.     

Gut microbiota of healthy Canadian infants: profiles by mode of delivery and infant diet at 4 months

Background:

The gut microbiota is essential to human health throughout life, yet the acquisition and development of this microbial community during infancy remains poorly understood. Meanwhile, there is increasing concern over rising rates of cesarean delivery and insufficient exclusive breastfeeding of infants in developed countries. In this article, we characterize the gut microbiota of healthy Canadian infants and describe the influence of cesarean delivery and formula feeding.

Methods:

We included a subset of 24 term infants from the Canadian Healthy Infant Longitudinal Development (CHILD) birth cohort. Mode of delivery was obtained from medical records, and mothers were asked to report on infant diet and medication use. Fecal samples were collected at 4 months of age, and we characterized the microbiota composition using high-throughput DNA sequencing.

Results:

We observed high variability in the profiles of fecal microbiota among the infants. The profiles were generally dominated by Actinobacteria (mainly the genus Bifidobacterium) and Firmicutes (with diverse representation from numerous genera). Compared with breastfed infants, formula-fed infants had increased richness of species, with overrepresentation of Clostridium difficile. Escherichia–Shigella and Bacteroides species were underrepresented in infants born by cesarean delivery. Infants born by elective cesarean delivery had particularly low bacterial richness and diversity.

Interpretation:

These findings advance our understanding of the gut microbiota in healthy infants. They also provide new evidence for the effects of delivery mode and infant diet as determinants of this essential microbial community in early life.The human body harbours trillions of microbes, known collectively as the “human microbiome.” By far the highest density of commensal bacteria is found in the digestive tract, where resident microbes outnumber host cells by at least 10 to 1. Gut bacteria play a fundamental role in human health by promoting intestinal homeostasis, stimulating development of the immune system, providing protection against pathogens, and contributing to the processing of nutrients and harvesting of energy.^1,2 The disruption of the gut microbiota has been linked to an increasing number of diseases, including inflammatory bowel disease, necrotizing enterocolitis, diabetes, obesity, cancer, allergies and asthma.¹ Despite this evidence and a growing appreciation for the integral role of the gut microbiota in lifelong health, relatively little is known about the acquisition and development of this complex microbial community during infancy.³Two of the best-studied determinants of the gut microbiota during infancy are mode of delivery and exposure to breast milk.^4,5 Cesarean delivery perturbs normal colonization of the infant gut by preventing exposure to maternal microbes, whereas breastfeeding promotes a “healthy” gut microbiota by providing selective metabolic substrates for beneficial bacteria.^3,5 Despite recommendations from the World Health Organization,⁶ the rate of cesarean delivery has continued to rise in developed countries and rates of breastfeeding decrease substantially within the first few months of life.^7,8 In Canada, more than 1 in 4 newborns are born by cesarean delivery, and less than 15% of infants are exclusively breastfed for the recommended duration of 6 months.^9,10 In some parts of the world, elective cesarean deliveries are performed by maternal request, often because of apprehension about pain during childbirth, and sometimes for patient–physician convenience.¹¹The potential long-term consequences of decisions regarding mode of delivery and infant diet are not to be underestimated. Infants born by cesarean delivery are at increased risk of asthma, obesity and type 1 diabetes,¹² whereas breastfeeding is variably protective against these and other disorders.¹³ These long-term health consequences may be partially attributable to disruption of the gut microbiota.^12,14Historically, the gut microbiota has been studied with the use of culture-based methodologies to examine individual organisms. However, up to 80% of intestinal microbes cannot be grown in culture.^3,15 New technology using culture-independent DNA sequencing enables comprehensive detection of intestinal microbes and permits simultaneous characterization of entire microbial communities. Multinational consortia have been established to characterize the “normal” adult microbiome using these exciting new methods;¹⁶ however, these methods have been underused in infant studies. Because early colonization may have long-lasting effects on health, infant studies are vital.^3,4 Among the few studies of infant gut microbiota using DNA sequencing, most were conducted in restricted populations, such as infants delivered vaginally,¹⁷ infants born by cesarean delivery who were formula-fed¹⁸ or preterm infants with necrotizing enterocolitis.¹⁹Thus, the gut microbiota is essential to human health, yet the acquisition and development of this microbial community during infancy remains poorly understood.³ In the current study, we address this gap in knowledge using new sequencing technology and detailed exposure assessments²⁰ of healthy Canadian infants selected from a national birth cohort to provide representative, comprehensive profiles of gut microbiota according to mode of delivery and infant diet.     

A qualitative investigation of smoke-free policies on hospital property

Background:

Many hospitals have adopted smoke-free policies on their property. We examined the consequences of such polices at two Canadian tertiary acute-care hospitals.

Methods:

We conducted a qualitative study using ethnographic techniques over a six-month period. Participants (n = 186) shared their perspectives on and experiences with tobacco dependence and managing the use of tobacco, as well as their impressions of the smoke-free policy. We interviewed inpatients individually from eight wards (n = 82), key policy-makers (n = 9) and support staff (n = 14) and held 16 focus groups with health care providers and ward staff (n = 81). We also reviewed ward documents relating to tobacco dependence and looked at smoking-related activities on hospital property.

Results:

Noncompliance with the policy and exposure to secondhand smoke were ongoing concerns. Peoples’ impressions of the use of tobacco varied, including divergent opinions as to whether such use was a bad habit or an addiction. Treatment for tobacco dependence and the management of symptoms of withdrawal were offered inconsistently. Participants voiced concerns over patient safety and leaving the ward to smoke.

Interpretation:

Policies mandating smoke-free hospital property have important consequences beyond noncompliance, including concerns over patient safety and disruptions to care. Without adequately available and accessible support for withdrawal from tobacco, patients will continue to face personal risk when they leave hospital property to smoke.Canadian cities and provinces have passed smoking bans with the goal of reducing people’s exposure to secondhand smoke in workplaces, public spaces and on the property adjacent to public buildings.^1,2 In response, Canadian health authorities and hospitals began implementing policies mandating smoke-free hospital property, with the goals of reducing the exposure of workers, patients and visitors to tobacco smoke while delivering a public health message about the dangers of smoking.^2–5 An additional anticipated outcome was the reduced use of tobacco among patients and staff. The impetuses for adopting smoke-free policies include public support for such legislation and the potential for litigation for exposure to second-hand smoke.^2,4Tobacco use is a modifiable risk factor associated with a variety of cancers, cardiovascular diseases and respiratory conditions.^6–11 Patients in hospital who use tobacco tend to have more surgical complications and exacerbations of acute and chronic health conditions than patients who do not use tobacco.^6–11 Any policy aimed at reducing exposure to tobacco in hospitals is well supported by evidence, as is the integration of interventions targetting tobacco dependence.¹² Unfortunately, most of the nearly five million Canadians who smoke will receive suboptimal treatment,¹³ as the routine provision of interventions for tobacco dependence in hospital settings is not a practice norm.^14–16 In smoke-free hospitals, two studies suggest minimal support is offered for withdrawal, ^17,18 and one reports an increased use of nicotine-replacement therapy after the implementation of the smoke-free policy.¹⁹Assessments of the effectiveness of smoke-free policies for hospital property tend to focus on noncompliance and related issues of enforcement.^17,20,21 Although evidence of noncompliance and litter on hospital property^2,17,20 implies ongoing exposure to tobacco smoke, half of the participating hospital sites in one study reported less exposure to tobacco smoke within hospital buildings and on the property.¹⁸ In addition, there is evidence to suggest some decline in smoking among staff.^18,19,21,22We sought to determine the consequences of policies mandating smoke-free hospital property in two Canadian acute-care hospitals by eliciting lived experiences of the people faced with enacting the policies: patients and health care providers. In addition, we elicited stories from hospital support staff and administrators regarding the policies.     

Effect of ambient air pollution on the incidence of appendicitis

Background

The pathogenesis of appendicitis is unclear. We evaluated whether exposure to air pollution was associated with an increased incidence of appendicitis.

Methods

We identified 5191 adults who had been admitted to hospital with appendicitis between Apr. 1, 1999, and Dec. 31, 2006. The air pollutants studied were ozone, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide, and suspended particulate matter of less than 10 μ and less than 2.5 μ in diameter. We estimated the odds of appendicitis relative to short-term increases in concentrations of selected pollutants, alone and in combination, after controlling for temperature and relative humidity as well as the effects of age, sex and season.

Results

An increase in the interquartile range of the 5-day average of ozone was associated with appendicitis (odds ratio [OR] 1.14, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03–1.25). In summer (July–August), the effects were most pronounced for ozone (OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.10–1.57), sulfur dioxide (OR 1.30, 95% CI 1.03–1.63), nitrogen dioxide (OR 1.76, 95% CI 1.20–2.58), carbon monoxide (OR 1.35, 95% CI 1.01–1.80) and particulate matter less than 10 μ in diameter (OR 1.20, 95% CI 1.05–1.38). We observed a significant effect of the air pollutants in the summer months among men but not among women (e.g., OR for increase in the 5-day average of nitrogen dioxide 2.05, 95% CI 1.21–3.47, among men and 1.48, 95% CI 0.85–2.59, among women). The double-pollutant model of exposure to ozone and nitrogen dioxide in the summer months was associated with attenuation of the effects of ozone (OR 1.22, 95% CI 1.01–1.48) and nitrogen dioxide (OR 1.48, 95% CI 0.97–2.24).

Interpretation

Our findings suggest that some cases of appendicitis may be triggered by short-term exposure to air pollution. If these findings are confirmed, measures to improve air quality may help to decrease rates of appendicitis.Appendicitis was introduced into the medical vernacular in 1886.¹ Since then, the prevailing theory of its pathogenesis implicated an obstruction of the appendiceal orifice by a fecalith or lymphoid hyperplasia.² However, this notion does not completely account for variations in incidence observed by age,^3,4 sex,^3,4 ethnic background,^3,4 family history,⁵ temporal–spatial clustering⁶ and seasonality,^3,4 nor does it completely explain the trends in incidence of appendicitis in developed and developing nations.^3,7,8The incidence of appendicitis increased dramatically in industrialized nations in the 19th century and in the early part of the 20th century.¹ Without explanation, it decreased in the middle and latter part of the 20th century.³ The decrease coincided with legislation to improve air quality. For example, after the United States Clean Air Act was passed in 1970,⁹ the incidence of appendicitis decreased by 14.6% from 1970 to 1984.³ Likewise, a 36% drop in incidence was reported in the United Kingdom between 1975 and 1994¹⁰ after legislation was passed in 1956 and 1968 to improve air quality and in the 1970s to control industrial sources of air pollution. Furthermore, appendicitis is less common in developing nations; however, as these countries become more industrialized, the incidence of appendicitis has been increasing.⁷Air pollution is known to be a risk factor for multiple conditions, to exacerbate disease states and to increase all-cause mortality.¹¹ It has a direct effect on pulmonary diseases such as asthma¹¹ and on nonpulmonary diseases including myocardial infarction, stroke and cancer.^11–13 Inflammation induced by exposure to air pollution contributes to some adverse health effects.^14–17 Similar to the effects of air pollution, a proinflammatory response has been associated with appendicitis.^18–20We conducted a case–crossover study involving a population-based cohort of patients admitted to hospital with appendicitis to determine whether short-term increases in concentrations of selected air pollutants were associated with hospital admission because of appendicitis.     

Secular trends in acute dialysis after elective major surgery �� 1995 to 2009

Background:

Acute kidney injury is a serious complication of elective major surgery. Acute dialysis is used to support life in the most severe cases. We examined whether rates and outcomes of acute dialysis after elective major surgery have changed over time.

Methods:

We used data from Ontario’s universal health care databases to study all consecutive patients who had elective major surgery at 118 hospitals between 1995 and 2009. Our primary outcomes were acute dialysis within 14 days of surgery, death within 90 days of surgery and chronic dialysis for patients who did not recover kidney function.

Results:

A total of 552 672 patients underwent elective major surgery during the study period, 2231 of whom received acute dialysis. The incidence of acute dialysis increased steadily from 0.2% in 1995 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.15–0.2) to 0.6% in 2009 (95% CI 0.6–0.7). This increase was primarily in cardiac and vascular surgeries. Among patients who received acute dialysis, 937 died within 90 days of surgery (42.0%, 95% CI 40.0–44.1), with no change in 90-day survival over time. Among the 1294 patients who received acute dialysis and survived beyond 90 days, 352 required chronic dialysis (27.2%, 95% CI 24.8–29.7), with no change over time.

Interpretation:

The use of acute dialysis after cardiac and vascular surgery has increased substantially since 1995. Studies focusing on interventions to better prevent and treat perioperative acute kidney injury are needed.More than 230 million elective major surgeries are done annually worldwide.¹ Acute kidney injury is a serious complication of major surgery. It represents a sudden loss of kidney function that affects morbidity, mortality and health care costs.² Dialysis is used for the most severe forms of acute kidney injury. In the nonsurgical setting, the incidence of acute dialysis has steadily increased over the last 15 years, and patients are now more likely to survive to discharge from hospital.^3–5 Similarly, in the surgical setting, the incidence of acute dialysis appears to be increasing over time,^6–10 with declining inhospital mortality.^8,10,11Although previous studies have improved our understanding of the epidemiology of acute dialysis in the surgical setting, several questions remain. Many previous studies were conducted at a single centre, thereby limiting their generalizability.^6,12–14 Most multicentre studies were conducted in the nonsurgical setting and used diagnostic codes for acute kidney injury not requiring dialysis; however, these codes can be inaccurate.^15,16 In contrast, a procedure such as dialysis is easily determined. The incidence of acute dialysis after elective surgery is of particular interest given the need for surgical consent, the severe nature of the event and the potential for mitigation. The need for chronic dialysis among patients who do not recover renal function after surgery has been poorly studied, yet this condition has a major affect on patient survival and quality of life.¹⁷ For these reasons, we studied secular trends in acute dialysis after elective major surgery, focusing on incidence, 90-day mortality and need for chronic dialysis.     

Effectiveness of interventions designed to reduce the use of imaging for low-back pain: a systematic review

Background:Rates of imaging for low-back pain are high and are associated with increased health care costs and radiation exposure as well as potentially poorer patient outcomes. We conducted a systematic review to investigate the effectiveness of interventions aimed at reducing the use of imaging for low-back pain.Methods:We searched MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials from the earliest records to June 23, 2014. We included randomized controlled trials, controlled clinical trials and interrupted time series studies that assessed interventions designed to reduce the use of imaging in any clinical setting, including primary, emergency and specialist care. Two independent reviewers extracted data and assessed risk of bias. We used raw data on imaging rates to calculate summary statistics. Study heterogeneity prevented meta-analysis.Results:A total of 8500 records were identified through the literature search. Of the 54 potentially eligible studies reviewed in full, 7 were included in our review. Clinical decision support involving a modified referral form in a hospital setting reduced imaging by 36.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] 33.2% to 40.5%). Targeted reminders to primary care physicians of appropriate indications for imaging reduced referrals for imaging by 22.5% (95% CI 8.4% to 36.8%). Interventions that used practitioner audits and feedback, practitioner education or guideline dissemination did not significantly reduce imaging rates. Lack of power within some of the included studies resulted in lack of statistical significance despite potentially clinically important effects.Interpretation:Clinical decision support in a hospital setting and targeted reminders to primary care doctors were effective interventions in reducing the use of imaging for low-back pain. These are potentially low-cost interventions that would substantially decrease medical expenditures associated with the management of low-back pain.Current evidence-based clinical practice guidelines recommend against the routine use of imaging in patients presenting with low-back pain.^1–3 Despite this, imaging rates remain high,^4,5 which indicates poor concordance with these guidelines.^6,7Unnecessary imaging for low-back pain has been associated with poorer patient outcomes, increased radiation exposure and higher health care costs.⁸ No short- or long-term clinical benefits have been shown with routine imaging of the low back, and the diagnostic value of incidental imaging findings remains uncertain.^9–12 A 2008 systematic review found that imaging accounted for 7% of direct costs associated with low-back pain, which in 1998 translated to more than US$6 billion in the United States and £114 million in the United Kingdom.¹³ Current costs are likely to be substantially higher, with an estimated 65% increase in spine-related expenditures between 1997 and 2005.¹⁴Various interventions have been tried for reducing imaging rates among people with low-back pain. These include strategies targeted at the practitioner such as guideline dissemination,^15–17 education workshops,^18,19 audit and feedback of imaging use,^7,20,21 ongoing reminders⁷ and clinical decision support.^22–24 It is unclear which, if any, of these strategies are effective.²⁵ We conducted a systematic review to investigate the effectiveness of interventions designed to reduce imaging rates for the management of low-back pain.     

Prevalence of and factors associated with head impact during falls in older adults in long-term care

Background:

Falls cause more than 60% of head injuries in older adults. Lack of objective evidence on the circumstances of these events is a barrier to prevention. We analyzed video footage to determine the frequency of and risk factors for head impact during falls in older adults in 2 long-term care facilities.

Methods:

Over 39 months, we captured on video 227 falls involving 133 residents. We used a validated questionnaire to analyze the mechanisms of each fall. We then examined whether the probability for head impact was associated with upper-limb protective responses (hand impact) and fall direction.

Results:

Head impact occurred in 37% of falls, usually onto a vinyl or linoleum floor. Hand impact occurred in 74% of falls but had no significant effect on the probability of head impact (p = 0.3). An increased probability of head impact was associated with a forward initial fall direction, compared with backward falls (odds ratio [OR] 2.7, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.3–5.9) or sideways falls (OR 2.8, 95% CI 1.2–6.3). In 36% of sideways falls, residents rotated to land backwards, which reduced the probability of head impact (OR 0.2, 95% CI 0.04–0.8).

Interpretation:

Head impact was common in observed falls in older adults living in long-term care facilities, particularly in forward falls. Backward rotation during descent appeared to be protective, but hand impact was not. Attention to upper-limb strength and teaching rotational falling techniques (as in martial arts training) may reduce fall-related head injuries in older adults.Falls from standing height or lower are the cause of more than 60% of hospital admissions for traumatic brain injury in adults older than 65 years.^1–5 Traumatic brain injury accounts for 32% of hospital admissions and more than 50% of deaths from falls in older adults.^1,6–8 Furthermore, the incidence and age-adjusted rate of fall-related traumatic brain injury is increasing,^1,9 especially among people older than 80 years, among whom rates have increased threefold over the past 30 years.¹⁰ One-quarter of fall-related traumatic brain injuries in older adults occur in long-term care facilities.¹The development of improved strategies to prevent fall-related traumatic brain injuries is an important but challenging task. About 60% of residents in long-term care facilities fall at least once per year,¹¹ and falls result from complex interactions of physiologic, environmental and situational factors.^12–16 Any fall from standing height has sufficient energy to cause brain injury if direct impact occurs between the head and a rigid floor surface.^17–19 Improved understanding is needed of the factors that separate falls that result in head impact and injury from those that do not.^1,10 Falls in young adults rarely result in head impact, owing to protective responses such as use of the upper limbs to stop the fall, trunk flexion and rotation during descent.^20–23 We have limited evidence of the efficacy of protective responses to falls among older adults.In the current study, we analyzed video footage of real-life falls among older adults to estimate the prevalence of head impact from falls, and to examine the association between head impact, and biomechanical and situational factors.     

Predictors of long-term prognosis of depression

Background:

Many people with depression experience repeated episodes. Previous research into the predictors of chronic depression has focused primarily on the clinical features of the disease; however, little is known about the broader spectrum of sociodemographic and health factors inherent in its development. Our aim was to identify factors associated with a long-term negative prognosis of depression.

Methods:

We included 585 people aged 16 years and older who participated in the 2000/01 cycle of the National Population Health Survey and who reported experiencing a major depressive episode in 2000/01. The primary outcome was the course of depression until 2006/07. We grouped individuals into trajectories of depression using growth trajectory models. We included demographic, mental and physical health factors as predictors in the multivariable regression model to compare people with different trajectories.

Results:

Participants fell into two main depression trajectories: those whose depression resolved and did not recur (44.7%) and those who experienced repeated episodes (55.3%). In the multivariable model, daily smoking (OR 2.68, 95% CI 1.54–4.67), low mastery (i.e., feeling that life circumstances are beyond one’s control) (OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.03–1.18) and history of depression (OR 3.5, 95% CI 1.95–6.27) were significant predictors (p < 0.05) of repeated episodes of depression.

Interpretation:

People with major depression who were current smokers or had low levels of mastery were at an increased risk of repeated episodes of depression. Future studies are needed to confirm the predictive value of these variables and to evaluate their accuracy for diagnosis and as a guide to treatment.Depression is a common and often recurrent disorder that compromises daily functioning and is associated with a decrease in quality of life.^1–3 Guidelines for the treatment of depression, such as those published by the Canadian Network for Mood and Anxiety Treatments (CANMAT)⁵ and the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) in the United Kingdom,⁴ often recommend antidepressant treatment in patients with severe symptoms and outline specific risk factors supporting long-term treatment maintenance.^4,5 However, for patients who do not meet the criteria for treatment of depression, the damaging sequelae of depression are frequently compounded without treatment.⁵ In such cases, early treatment for depression may result in an improved long-term prognosis.^6–8A small but growing number of studies have begun to characterize the long-term course of depression in terms of severity,⁹ life-time prevalence¹⁰ and patterns of recurrence.¹¹ However, a recent systematic review of the risk factors of chronic depression highlighted a need for longitudinal studies to better identify prognostic factors.¹² The capacity to distinguish long-term patterns of recurrence of depression in relation to the wide range of established clinical and nonclinical factors for depression could be highly beneficial. Our objective was to use a population-based cohort to identify and understand the baseline factors associated with a long-term negative prognosis of depression.     

Diagnoses during follow-up of patients presenting with fatigue in primary care

Background

Little is known about the distribution of diagnoses that account for fatigue in patients in primary care. We evaluated the diagnoses established within 1 year after presentation with fatigue in primary care that were possibly associated with the fatigue.

Methods

We conducted a prospective observational cohort study with 1-year follow-up. We included adult patients who presented with a new episode of fatigue between June 2004 and January 2006. We extracted data on diagnoses during the follow-up period from the patients’ medical records as well as data on pre-existing chronic diseases.

Results

Of the 571 patients for whom diagnostic data were available, 268 (46.9%) had received one or more diagnoses that could be associated with fatigue. The diagnoses were diverse and mostly included symptom diagnoses, with main categories being musculoskeletal (19.4%) and psychological problems (16.5%). Clear somatic pathology was diagnosed in 47 (8.2%) of the patients. Most diagnoses were not made during the consultation when fatigue was presented.

Interpretation

Only a minority of patients were diagnosed with serious pathology. Half of the patients did not receive any diagnosis that could explain their fatigue. Nevertheless, because of the wide range of conditions and symptoms that may explain or co-occur with the fatigue, fatigue is a complex problem that deserves attention not only as a symptom of underlying specific disease.Fatigue is a common problem seen in primary care. It is reported as the main presenting symptom in 5% to 10% of patients.^1–3 Both its nonspecific nature and its high prevalence make fatigue a challenging problem for general practitioners to manage. The symptom may indicate a wide range of conditions, including respiratory, cardiovascular, endocrine, gastrointestinal, hematologic, infectious, neurologic and musculoskeletal diseases, mood disorders, sleep disorders and cancer.^4–13 Patients with a chronic disease often report symptoms of fatigue,^14,15 and the prevalence of chronic disease is higher among patients presenting with fatigue than among other patients.¹⁶ Regardless of the underlying pathology, fatigue is a phenomenon with social, physiologic and psychological dimensions.^17–20Little is known about the distribution of diagnoses in populations of patients presenting with fatigue as a main symptom in primary care. A Dutch morbidity registration of episodes of care showed that fatigue was a symptom diagnosis in about 40% of patients.²¹ Previous studies involving patients presenting with fatigue as a main symptom either had small samples^22,23 or reported diagnoses that were based on standardized laboratory testing at baseline.^24,25 Because of the wide range of possible diagnoses, large observational studies are needed to determine the distribution of diagnoses in primary care.We carried out a prospective study involving patients in primary care practices in whom fatigue was the main presenting symptom. The aim of our study was to describe the distribution of diagnoses established within 1 year after presentation that were possibly associated with the fatigue.     

Effect of nasal balloon autoinflation in children with otitis media with effusion in primary care: an open randomized controlled trial

Background:Otitis media with effusion is a common problem that lacks an evidence-based nonsurgical treatment option. We assessed the clinical effectiveness of treatment with a nasal balloon device in a primary care setting.Methods:We conducted an open, pragmatic randomized controlled trial set in 43 family practices in the United Kingdom. Children aged 4–11 years with a recent history of ear symptoms and otitis media with effusion in 1 or both ears, confirmed by tympanometry, were allocated to receive either autoinflation 3 times daily for 1–3 months plus usual care or usual care alone. Clearance of middle-ear fluid at 1 and 3 months was assessed by experts masked to allocation.Results:Of 320 children enrolled, those receiving autoinflation were more likely than controls to have normal tympanograms at 1 month (47.3% [62/131] v. 35.6% [47/132]; adjusted relative risk [RR] 1.36, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.99 to 1.88) and at 3 months (49.6% [62/125] v. 38.3% [46/120]; adjusted RR 1.37, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.83; number needed to treat = 9). Autoinflation produced greater improvements in ear-related quality of life (adjusted between-group difference in change from baseline in OMQ-14 [an ear-related measure of quality of life] score −0.42, 95% CI −0.63 to −0.22). Compliance was 89% at 1 month and 80% at 3 months. Adverse events were mild, infrequent and comparable between groups.Interpretation:Autoinflation in children aged 4–11 years with otitis media with effusion is feasible in primary care and effective both in clearing effusions and improving symptoms and ear-related child and parent quality of life. Trial registration: ISRCTN, No. 55208702.Otitis media with effusion, also known as glue ear, is an accumulation of fluid in the middle ear, without symptoms or signs of an acute ear infection. It is often associated with viral infection.^1–3 The prevalence rises to 46% in children aged 4–5 years,⁴ when hearing difficulty, other ear-related symptoms and broader developmental concerns often bring the condition to medical attention.^3,5,6 Middle-ear fluid is associated with conductive hearing losses of about 15–45 dB HL.⁷ Resolution is clinically unpredictable,^8–10 with about a third of cases showing recurrence.¹¹ In the United Kingdom, about 200 000 children with the condition are seen annually in primary care.^12,13 Research suggests some children seen in primary care are as badly affected as those seen in hospital.^7,9,14,15 In the United States, there were 2.2 million diagnosed episodes in 2004, costing an estimated $4.0 billion.¹⁶ Rates of ventilation tube surgery show variability between countries,^17–19 with a declining trend in the UK.²⁰Initial clinical management consists of reasonable temporizing or delay before considering surgery.¹³ Unfortunately, all available medical treatments for otitis media with effusion such as antibiotics, antihistamines, decongestants and intranasal steroids are ineffective and have unwanted effects, and therefore cannot be recommended.^21–23 Not only are antibiotics ineffective, but resistance to them poses a major threat to public health.^24,25 Although surgery is effective for a carefully selected minority,^13,26,27 a simple low-cost, nonsurgical treatment option could benefit a much larger group of symptomatic children, with the purpose of addressing legitimate clinical concerns without incurring excessive delays.Autoinflation using a nasal balloon device is a low-cost intervention with the potential to be used more widely in primary care, but current evidence of its effectiveness is limited to several small hospital-based trials²⁸ that found a higher rate of tympanometric resolution of ear fluid at 1 month.^29–31 Evidence of feasibility and effectiveness of autoinflation to inform wider clinical use is lacking.^13,28 Thus we report here the findings of a large pragmatic trial of the clinical effectiveness of nasal balloon autoinflation in a spectrum of children with clinically confirmed otitis media with effusion identified from primary care.     

Performance of the immunochemical fecal occult blood test in predicting lesions in the lower gastrointestinal tract

Background:

Previous studies have suggested that the immunochemical fecal occult blood test has superior specificity for detecting bleeding in the lower gastrointestinal tract even if bleeding occurs in the upper tract. We conducted a large population-based study involving asymptomatic adults in Taiwan, a population with prevalent upper gastrointestinal lesions, to confirm this claim.

Methods:

We conducted a prospective cohort study involving asymptomatic people aged 18 years or more in Taiwan recruited to undergo an immunochemical fecal occult blood test, colonoscopy and esophagogastroduodenoscopy between August 2007 and July 2009. We compared the prevalence of lesions in the lower and upper gastrointestinal tracts between patients with positive and negative fecal test results. We also identified risk factors associated with a false-positive fecal test result.

Results:

Of the 2796 participants, 397 (14.2%) had a positive fecal test result. The sensitivity of the test for predicting lesions in the lower gastrointestinal tract was 24.3%, the specificity 89.0%, the positive predictive value 41.3%, the negative predictive value 78.7%, the positive likelihood ratio 2.22, the negative likelihood ratio 0.85 and the accuracy 73.4%. The prevalence of lesions in the lower gastrointestinal tract was higher among those with a positive fecal test result than among those with a negative result (41.3% v. 21.3%, p < 0.001). The prevalence of lesions in the upper gastrointestinal tract did not differ significantly between the two groups (20.7% v. 17.5%, p = 0.12). Almost all of the participants found to have colon cancer (27/28, 96.4%) had a positive fecal test result; in contrast, none of the three found to have esophageal or gastric cancer had a positive fecal test result (p < 0.001). Among those with a negative finding on colonoscopy, the risk factors associated with a false-positive fecal test result were use of antiplatelet drugs (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 2.46, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.21–4.98) and a low hemoglobin concentration (adjusted OR 2.65, 95% CI 1.62–4.33).

Interpretation:

The immunochemical fecal occult blood test was specific for predicting lesions in the lower gastrointestinal tract. However, the test did not adequately predict lesions in the upper gastrointestinal tract.The fecal occult blood test is a convenient tool to screen for asymptomatic gastrointestinal bleeding.¹ When the test result is positive, colonoscopy is the strategy of choice to investigate the source of bleeding.^2,3 However, 13%–42% of patients can have a positive test result but a negative colonoscopy,⁴ and it has not yet been determined whether asymptomatic patients should then undergo evaluation of the upper gastrointestinal tract.Previous studies showed that the frequency of lesions in the upper gastrointestinal tract was comparable or even higher than that of colonic lesions^5–9 and that the use of esophagogastroduodenoscopy may change clinical management.^10,11 Some studies showed that evaluation of the upper gastrointestinal tract helped to identify important lesions in symptomatic patients and those with iron deficiency anemia;^12,13 however, others concluded that esophagogastroduodenoscopy was unjustified because important findings in the upper gastrointestinal tract were rare^14–17 and sometimes irrelevant to the results of fecal occult blood testing.^18–21 This controversy is related to the heterogeneity of study populations and to the limitations of the formerly used guaiac-based fecal occult blood test,^5–20 which was not able to distinguish bleeding in the lower gastrointestinal tract from that originating in the upper tract.The guaiac-based fecal occult blood test is increasingly being replaced by the immunochemical-based test. The latter is recommended for detecting bleeding in the lower gastrointestinal tract because it reacts with human globin, a protein that is digested by enzymes in the upper gastrointestinal tract.²² With this advantage, the occurrence of a positive fecal test result and a negative finding on colonoscopy is expected to decrease.We conducted a population-based study in Taiwan to verify the performance of the immunochemical fecal occult blood test in predicting lesions in the lower gastrointestinal tract and to confirm that results are not confounded by the presence of lesions in the upper tract. In Taiwan, the incidence of colorectal cancer is rapidly increasing, and Helicobacter pylori-related lesions in the upper gastrointestinal tract remain highly prevalent.²³ Same-day bidirectional endoscopies are therefore commonly used for cancer screening.²⁴ This screening strategy provides an opportunity to evaluate the performance of the immunochemical fecal occult blood test.     

Prevalence of and risk factors for persistent postoperative nonanginal pain after cardiac surgery: a 2-year prospective multicentre study

Background:

Persistent postoperative pain continues to be an underrecognized complication. We examined the prevalence of and risk factors for this type of pain after cardiac surgery.

Methods:

We enrolled patients scheduled for coronary artery bypass grafting or valve replacement, or both, from Feb. 8, 2005, to Sept. 1, 2009. Validated measures were used to assess (a) preoperative anxiety and depression, tendency to catastrophize in the face of pain, health-related quality of life and presence of persistent pain; (b) pain intensity and interference in the first postoperative week; and (c) presence and intensity of persistent postoperative pain at 3, 6, 12 and 24 months after surgery. The primary outcome was the presence of persistent postoperative pain during 24 months of follow-up.

Results:

A total of 1247 patients completed the preoperative assessment. Follow-up retention rates at 3 and 24 months were 84% and 78%, respectively. The prevalence of persistent postoperative pain decreased significantly over time, from 40.1% at 3 months to 22.1% at 6 months, 16.5% at 12 months and 9.5% at 24 months; the pain was rated as moderate to severe in 3.6% at 24 months. Acute postoperative pain predicted both the presence and severity of persistent postoperative pain. The more intense the pain during the first week after surgery and the more it interfered with functioning, the more likely the patients were to report persistent postoperative pain. Pre-existing persistent pain and increased preoperative anxiety also predicted the presence of persistent postoperative pain.

Interpretation:

Persistent postoperative pain of nonanginal origin after cardiac surgery affected a substantial proportion of the study population. Future research is needed to determine whether interventions to modify certain risk factors, such as preoperative anxiety and the severity of pain before and immediately after surgery, may help to minimize or prevent persistent postoperative pain.Postoperative pain that persists beyond the normal time for tissue healing (> 3 mo) is increasingly recognized as an important complication after various types of surgery and can have serious consequences on patients’ daily living.^1–3 Cardiac surgeries, such as coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and valve replacement, rank among the most frequently performed interventions worldwide.⁴ They aim to improve survival and quality of life by reducing symptoms, including anginal pain. However, persistent postoperative pain of nonanginal origin has been reported in 7% to 60% of patients following these surgeries.^5–23 Such variability is common in other types of major surgery and is due mainly to differences in the definition of persistent postoperative pain, study design, data collection methods and duration of follow-up.^1–3,24Few prospective cohort studies have examined the exact time course of persistent postoperative pain after cardiac surgery, and follow-up has always been limited to a year or less.^9,14,25 Factors that put patients at risk of this type of problem are poorly understood.²⁶ Studies have reported inconsistent results regarding the contribution of age, sex, body mass index, preoperative angina, surgical technique, grafting site, postoperative complications or level of opioid consumption after surgery.^{5–7,9,13,14,16–19,21–23,25,27} Only 1 study investigated the role of chronic nonanginal pain before surgery as a contributing factor;²¹ 5 others prospectively assessed the association between persistent postoperative pain and acute pain intensity in the first postoperative week but reported conflicting results.^{13,14,21,22,25} All of the above studies were carried out in a single hospital and included relatively small samples. None of the studies examined the contribution of psychological factors such as levels of anxiety and depression before cardiac surgery, although these factors have been shown to influence acute or persistent postoperative pain in other types of surgery.^1,24,28,29We conducted a prospective multicentre cohort study (the CARD-PAIN study) to determine the prevalence of persistent postoperative pain of nonanginal origin up to 24 months after cardiac surgery and to identify risk factors for the presence and severity of the condition.     

Visibility of the urethral meatus and risk of urinary tract infections in uncircumcised boys

Background:

Uncircumcised boys are at higher risk for urinary tract infections than circumcised boys. Whether this risk varies with the visibility of the urethral meatus is not known. Our aim was to determine whether there is a hierarchy of risk among uncircumcised boys whose urethral meatuses are visible to differing degrees.

Methods:

We conducted a prospective cross-sectional study in one pediatric emergency department. We screened 440 circumcised and uncircumcised boys. Of these, 393 boys who were not toilet trained and for whom the treating physician had requested a catheter urine culture were included in our analysis. At the time of catheter insertion, a nurse characterized the visibility of the urethral meatus (phimosis) using a 3-point scale (completely visible, partially visible or nonvisible). Our primary outcome was urinary tract infection, and our primary exposure variable was the degree of phimosis: completely visible versus partially or nonvisible urethral meatus.

Results:

Cultures grew from urine samples from 30.0% of uncircumcised boys with a completely visible meatus, and from 23.8% of those with a partially or nonvisible meatus (p = 0.4). The unadjusted odds ratio (OR) for culture growth was 0.73 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.35–1.52), and the adjusted OR was 0.41 (95% CI 0.17–0.95). Of the boys who were circumcised, 4.8% had urinary tract infections, which was significantly lower than the rate among uncircumcised boys with a completely visible urethral meatus (unadjusted OR 0.12 [95% CI 0.04–0.39], adjusted OR 0.07 [95% CI 0.02–0.26]).

Interpretation:

We did not see variation in the risk of urinary tract infection with the visibility of the urethral meatus among uncircumcised boys. Compared with circumcised boys, we saw a higher risk of urinary tract infection in uncircumcised boys, irrespective of urethral visibility.Urinary tract infections are one of the most common serious bacterial infections in young children.^1–6 Prompt diagnosis is important, because children with urinary tract infection are at risk for bacteremia⁶ and renal scarring.^1,7 Uncircumcised boys have a much higher risk of urinary tract infection than circumcised boys,^{1,3,4,6,8–12} likely as a result of heavier colonization under the foreskin with pathogenic bacteria, which leads to ascending infections.^13,14 The American Academy of Pediatrics recently suggested that circumcision status be used to select which boys should be evaluated for urinary tract infection.¹ However, whether all uncircumcised boys are at equal risk for infection, or whether the risk varies with the visibility of the urethral opening, is not known. It has been suggested that a subset of uncircumcised boys with a poorly visible urethral opening are at increased risk of urinary tract infection,^15–17 leading some experts to consider giving children with tight foreskins topical cortisone or circumcision to prevent urinary tract infections.^13,18–21We designed a study to challenge the opinion that all uncircumcised boys are at increased risk for urinary tract infections. We hypothesized a hierarchy of risk among uncircumcised boys depending on the visibility of the urethral meatus, with those with a partially or nonvisible meatus at highest risk, and those with a completely visible meatus having a level of risk similar to that of boys who have been circumcised. Our primary aim was to compare the proportions of urinary tract infections among uncircumcised boys with a completely visible meatus with those with a partially or nonvisible meatus.     

Suicide among children and adolescents in Canada: trends and sex differences, 1980�C2008

Background:

Suicide is the second leading cause of death for young Canadians (10–19 years of age) — a disturbing trend that has shown little improvement in recent years. Our objective was to examine suicide trends among Canadian children and adolescents.

Methods:

We conducted a retrospective analysis of standardized suicide rates using Statistics Canada mortality data for the period spanning from 1980 to 2008. We analyzed the data by sex and by suicide method over time for two age groups: 10–14 year olds (children) and 15–19 year olds (adolescents). We quantified annual trends by calculating the average annual percent change (AAPC).

Results:

We found an average annual decrease of 1.0% (95% confidence interval [CI] −1.5 to −0.4) in the suicide rate for children and adolescents, but stratification by age and sex showed significant variation. We saw an increase in suicide by suffocation among female children (AAPC = 8.1%, 95% CI 6.0 to 10.4) and adolescents (AAPC = 8.0%, 95% CI 6.2 to 9.8). In addition, we noted a decrease in suicides involving poisoning and firearms during the study period.

Interpretation:

Our results show that suicide rates in Canada are increasing among female children and adolescents and decreasing among male children and adolescents. Limiting access to lethal means has some potential to mitigate risk. However, suffocation, which has become the predominant method for committing suicide for these age groups, is not amenable to this type of primary prevention.Suicide was ranked as the second leading cause of death among Canadians aged 10–34 years in 2008.¹ It is recognized that suicidal behaviour and ideation is an important public health issue among children and adolescents; disturbingly, suicide is a leading cause of Canadian childhood mortality (i.e., among youths aged 10–19 years).^2,3Between 1980 and 2008, there were substantial improvements in mortality attributable to unintentional injury among 10–19 year olds, with rates decreasing from 37.7 per 100 000 to 10.7 per 100 000; suicide rates, however, showed less improvement, with only a small reduction during the same period (from 6.2 per 100 000 in 1980 to 5.2 per 100 000 in 2008).¹Previous studies that looked at suicides among Canadian adolescents and young adults (i.e., people aged 15–25 years) have reported rates as being generally stable over time, but with a marked increase in suicides by suffocation and a decrease in those involving firearms.² There is limited literature on self-inflicted injuries among children 10–14 years of age in Canada and the United States, but there appears to be a trend toward younger children starting to self-harm.^3,4 Furthermore, the trend of suicide by suffocation moving to younger ages may be partly due to cases of the “choking game” (self-strangulation without intent to cause permanent harm) that have been misclassified as suicides.^5–7Risk factors for suicidal behaviour and ideation in young people include a psychiatric diagnosis (e.g., depression), substance abuse, past suicidal behaviour, family factors and other life stressors (e.g., relationships, bullying) that have complex interactions.⁸ A suicide attempt involves specific intent, plans and availability of lethal means, such as firearms,⁹ elevated structures¹⁰ or substances.¹¹ The existence of “pro-suicide” sites on the Internet and in social media¹² may further increase risk by providing details of various ways to commit suicide, as well as evaluations ranking these methods by effectiveness, amount of pain involved and length of time to produce death.^13–15Our primary objective was to present the patterns of suicide among children and adolescents (aged 10–19 years) in Canada.     

Telehealthcare for asthma: a Cochrane review

Background:

Telehealthcare has the potential to provide care for long-term conditions that are increasingly prevalent, such as asthma. We conducted a systematic review of studies of telehealthcare interventions used for the treatment of asthma to determine whether such approaches to care are effective.

Methods:

We searched the Cochrane Airways Group Specialised Register of Trials, which is derived from systematic searches of bibliographic databases including CENTRAL (the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials), MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL (Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature) and PsycINFO, as well as other electronic resources. We also searched registers of ongoing and unpublished trials. We were interested in studies that measured the following outcomes: quality of life, number of visits to the emergency department and number of admissions to hospital. Two reviewers identified studies for inclusion in our meta-analysis. We extracted data and used fixedeffect modelling for the meta-analyses.

Results:

We identified 21 randomized controlled trials for inclusion in our analysis. The methods of telehealthcare intervention these studies investigated were the telephone and video- and Internet-based models of care. Meta-analysis did not show a clinically important improvement in patients’ quality of life, and there was no significant change in the number of visits to the emergency department over 12 months. There was a significant reduction in the number of patients admitted to hospital once or more over 12 months (risk ratio 0.25 [95% confidence interval 0.09 to 0.66]).

Interpretation:

We found no evidence of a clinically important impact on patients’ quality of life, but telehealthcare interventions do appear to have the potential to reduce the risk of admission to hospital, particularly for patients with severe asthma. Further research is required to clarify the cost-effectiveness of models of care based on telehealthcare.There has been an increase in the prevalence of asthma in recent decades,^1–3 and the Global Initiative for Asthma estimates that 300 million people worldwide now have the disease.⁴ The highest prevalence rates (30%) are seen in economically developed countries.^5–8 There has also been an increase in the prevalence of asthma affecting both children and adults in many economically developing and transition countries.^9–11Asthma’s high burden of disease requires improvements in access to treatments.^7,12,13 Patterns of help-seeking behaviour are also relevant: delayed reporting is associated with morbidity and the need for emergency care.It is widely believed that telehealthcare interventions may help address some of the challenges posed by asthma by enabling remote delivery of care, facilitating timely access to health advice, supporting self-monitoring and medication concordance, and educating patients on avoiding triggers.^14–16 The precise role of these technologies in the management of care for people with long-term respiratory conditions needs to be established.¹⁷The objective of this study was to systematically review the effectiveness of telehealthcare interventions among people with asthma in terms of quality of life, number of visits to the emergency department and admissions to hospital for exacerbations of asthma.     

Mediterranean diets and metabolic syndrome status in the PREDIMED randomized trial

Background:

Little evidence exists on the effect of an energy-unrestricted healthy diet on metabolic syndrome. We evaluated the long-term effect of Mediterranean diets ad libitum on the incidence or reversion of metabolic syndrome.

Methods:

We performed a secondary analysis of the PREDIMED trial — a multicentre, randomized trial done between October 2003 and December 2010 that involved men and women (age 55–80 yr) at high risk for cardiovascular disease. Participants were randomly assigned to 1 of 3 dietary interventions: a Mediterranean diet supplemented with extra-virgin olive oil, a Mediterranean diet supplemented with nuts or advice on following a low-fat diet (the control group). The interventions did not include increased physical activity or weight loss as a goal. We analyzed available data from 5801 participants. We determined the effect of diet on incidence and reversion of metabolic syndrome using Cox regression analysis to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

Results:

Over 4.8 years of follow-up, metabolic syndrome developed in 960 (50.0%) of the 1919 participants who did not have the condition at baseline. The risk of developing metabolic syndrome did not differ between participants assigned to the control diet and those assigned to either of the Mediterranean diets (control v. olive oil HR 1.10, 95% CI 0.94–1.30, p = 0.231; control v. nuts HR 1.08, 95% CI 0.92–1.27, p = 0.3). Reversion occurred in 958 (28.2%) of the 3392 participants who had metabolic syndrome at baseline. Compared with the control group, participants on either Mediterranean diet were more likely to undergo reversion (control v. olive oil HR 1.35, 95% CI 1.15–1.58, p < 0.001; control v. nuts HR 1.28, 95% CI 1.08–1.51, p < 0.001). Participants in the group receiving olive oil supplementation showed significant decreases in both central obesity and high fasting glucose (p = 0.02); participants in the group supplemented with nuts showed a significant decrease in central obesity.

Interpretation:

A Mediterranean diet supplemented with either extra virgin olive oil or nuts is not associated with the onset of metabolic syndrome, but such diets are more likely to cause reversion of the condition. An energy-unrestricted Mediterranean diet may be useful in reducing the risks of central obesity and hyperglycemia in people at high risk of cardiovascular disease. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, no. ISRCTN35739639.Metabolic syndrome is a cluster of 3 or more related cardiometabolic risk factors: central obesity (determined by waist circumference), hypertension, hypertriglyceridemia, low plasma high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol levels and hyperglycemia. Having the syndrome increases a person’s risk for type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease.^1,2 In addition, the condition is associated with increased morbidity and all-cause mortality.^1,3–5 The worldwide prevalence of metabolic syndrome in adults approaches 25%^6–8 and increases with age,⁷ especially among women,^8,9 making it an important public health issue.Several studies have shown that lifestyle modifications,¹⁰ such as increased physical activity,¹¹ adherence to a healthy diet^12,13 or weight loss,^14–16 are associated with reversion of the metabolic syndrome and its components. However, little information exists as to whether changes in the overall dietary pattern without weight loss might also be effective in preventing and managing the condition.The Mediterranean diet is recognized as one of the healthiest dietary patterns. It has shown benefits in patients with cardiovascular disease^17,18 and in the prevention and treatment of related conditions, such as diabetes,^19–21 hypertension^22,23 and metabolic syndrome.²⁴Several cross-sectional^25–29 and prospective^30–32 epidemiologic studies have suggested an inverse association between adherence to the Mediterranean diet and the prevalence or incidence of metabolic syndrome. Evidence from clinical trials has shown that an energy-restricted Mediterranean diet³³ or adopting a Mediterranean diet after weight loss³⁴ has a beneficial effect on metabolic syndrome. However, these studies did not determine whether the effect could be attributed to the weight loss or to the diets themselves.Seminal data from the PREDIMED (PREvención con DIeta MEDiterránea) study suggested that adherence to a Mediterranean diet supplemented with nuts reversed metabolic syndrome more so than advice to follow a low-fat diet.³⁵ However, the report was based on data from only 1224 participants followed for 1 year. We have analyzed the data from the final PREDIMED cohort after a median follow-up of 4.8 years to determine the long-term effects of a Mediterranean diet on metabolic syndrome.     

Higher risk of venous thrombosis associated with drospirenone-containing oral contraceptives: a population-based cohort study

Background:

Combined oral contraceptives are a common method of contraception, but they carry a risk of venous and arterial thrombosis. We assessed whether use of drospirenone was associated with an increase in thrombotic risk relative to third-generation combined oral contraceptives.

Methods:

Using computerized records of the largest health care provider in Israel, we identified all women aged 12 to 50 years for whom combined oral contraceptives had been dispensed between Jan. 1, 2002, and Dec. 31, 2008. We followed the cohort until 2009. We used Poisson regression models to estimate the crude and adjusted rate ratios for risk factors for venous thrombotic events (specifically deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism) and arterial thromboic events (specifically transient ischemic attack and cerebrovascular accident). We performed multivariable analyses to compare types of contraceptives, with adjustment for the various risk factors.

Results:

We identified a total of 1017 (0.24%) venous and arterial thrombotic events among 431 223 use episodes during 819 749 woman-years of follow-up (6.33 venous events and 6.10 arterial events per 10 000 woman-years). In a multivariable model, use of drospirenone carried an increased risk of venous thrombotic events, relative to both third-generation combined oral contraceptives (rate ratio [RR] 1.43, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.15–1.78) and second-generation combined oral contraceptives (RR 1.65, 95% CI 1.02–2.65). There was no increase in the risk of arterial thrombosis with drospirenone.

Interpretation:

Use of drospirenone-containing oral contraceptives was associated with an increased risk of deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism, but not transient ischemic attack or cerebrovascular attack, relative to second- and third-generation combined oral contraceptives.Oral hormonal therapy is the preferred method of contraception, especially among young women. In the United States in 2002, 12 million women were using “the pill.”¹ In a survey of households in Great Britain conducted in 2005 and 2006, one-quarter of women aged 16 to 49 years of age were using this form of contraception.² A large variety of combined oral contraceptive preparations are available, differing in terms of estrogen dose and in terms of the dose and type of the progestin component. Among preparations currently in use, the estrogen dose ranges from 15 to 35 μg, and the progestins are second-generation, third-generation or newer. The second-generation progestins (levonorgestrel and norgestrel), which are derivatives of testosterone, have differing degrees of androgenic and estrogenic activities. The structure of these agents was modified to reduce the androgenic activity, thus producing the third-generation progestins (desogestrel, gestodene and norgestimate). Newer progestins are chlormadinone acetate, a derivative of progesterone, and drospirenone, an analogue of the aldosterone antagonist spironolactone having antimineralo-corticoid and antiandrogenic activities. Drospirenone is promoted as causing less weight gain and edema than other forms of oral contraceptives, but few well-designed studies have compared the minor adverse effects of these drugs.³The use of oral contraceptives has been reported to confer an increased risk of venous and arterial thrombotic events,^4–7 specifically an absolute risk of venous thrombosis of 6.29 per 10 000 woman-years, compared with 3.01 per 10 000 woman-years among nonusers.⁸ It has long been accepted that there is a dose–response relationship between estrogen and the risk of venous thrombotic events. Reducing the estrogen dose from 50 μg to 20–30 μg has reduced the risk.⁹ Studies published since the mid-1990s have suggested a greater risk of venous thrombotic events with third-generation oral contraceptives than with second-generation formulations,^10–13 indicating that the risk is also progestin-dependent. The pathophysiological mechanism of the risk with different progestins is unknown. A twofold increase in the risk of arterial events (specifically ischemic stroke^6,14 and myocardial infarction⁷) has been observed in case–control studies for users of second-generation pills and possibly also third-generation preparations.^7,14Conflicting information is available regarding the risk of venous and arterial thrombotic events associated with drospirenone. An increased risk of venous thromboembolism, relative to second-generation pills, has been reported recently,^8,15,16 whereas two manufacturer-sponsored studies claimed no increase in risk.^17,18 In the study reported here, we investigated the risk of venous and arterial thrombotic events among users of various oral contraceptives in a large population-based cohort.     

Effect of marriage on duration of chest pain associated with acute myocardial infarction before seeking care

Background:

Coronary artery disease is the most common cause of death in the Western world, and being married decreases the risk of death from cardiovascular causes. We aimed to determine whether marital status was a predictor of the duration of chest pain endured by patients with acute myocardial infarction before they sought care and whether the patient’s sex modified the effect.

Methods:

We conducted a retrospective, population-based cohort analysis of patients with acute myocardial infarction admitted to 96 acute care hospitals in Ontario, Canada, from April 2004 to March 2005. We excluded patients who did not experience chest pain. Using multivariable regression analyses, we assessed marital status in relation to delayed presentation to hospital (more than six hours from onset of pain), both overall and stratified by sex. In patients who reported the exact duration of chest pain, we assessed the effect of marital status on the delay in seeking care.

Results:

Among 4403 eligible patients with acute myocardial infarction, the mean age was 67.3 (standard deviation 13.6) years, and 1486 (33.7%) were women. Almost half (2037 or 46.3%) presented to a hospital within two hours, and 3240 (73.6%) presented within six hours. Overall, 75.3% (2317/3079) of married patients, 67.9% (188/277) of single patients, 68.5% (189/276) of divorced patients and 70.8% (546/771) of widowed patients presented within six hours of the onset of chest pain. Being married was associated with lower odds of delayed presentation (odds ratio [OR] 0.46, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.30–0.71, p < 0.001) relative to being single. Among men, the OR was 0.35 (95% CI 0.21–0.59, p < 0.001), whereas among women the effect of marital status was not significant (OR 1.36, 95% CI 0.49–3.73, p = 0.55).

Interpretation:

Among men experiencing acute myocardial infarction with chest pain, being married was associated with significantly earlier presentation for care, a benefit that was not observed for married women. Earlier presentation for medical care appears to be one reason for the observed lower risk of cardiovascular death among married men, relative to their single counterparts.Marriage has long been known to offer health benefits^1,2 and is associated with a lower risk of death^3,4 relative to people who are not married. The effect is more pronounced among men than among women.^5,6 However, the specific mechanisms responsible for the lower rate of cardiovascular deaths in married persons⁷ are not known.Effective, time-sensitive therapy for acute myocardial infarction is available,^8,9 and delays in the emergency department and for in-hospital components of care have been substantially reduced over the past few decades.^10,11 In contrast, patients’ delay in seeking care for acute myocardial infarction has shown little improvement over time,^12,13 despite intensive campaigns to raise public awareness.^14,15 Patients’ delay remains by far the largest component of the overall delay between onset of symptoms and receipt of therapy.¹⁶ No study has examined the effect of marital status on patients’ delay, and only a few small studies have examined predictors of this component of delay by sex.^17,18We examined the effect of marital status, a social factor, on the time from onset of chest pain to arrival in an emergency department or hospital, in a population-based cohort of patients with acute myocardial infarction. We hypothesized that being married or in a common-law relationship would be associated with less delay, because we surmised that a spouse would encourage earlier pursuit of medical care, either directly or indirectly (i.e., even if the spouse was not physically present during the symptoms, his or her existence might spur the patient to seek care earlier). We hypothesized that wives would be more likely than husbands to assume the caregiver role and that the beneficial effect of marriage would therefore be stronger among men than among women.     

Risk of serious adverse cardiovascular events associated with varenicline: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background:

There have been postmarketing reports of adverse cardiovascular events associated with the use of varenicline, a widely used smoking cessation drug. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials to ascertain the serious adverse cardiovascular effects of varenicline compared with placebo among tobacco users.

Methods:

We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, websites of regulatory authorities and registries of clinical trials, with no date or language restrictions, through September 2010 (updated March 2011) for published and unpublished studies. We selected double-blind randomized controlled trials of at least one week’s duration involving smokers or people who used smokeless tobacco that reported on cardiovascular events (ischemia, arrhythmia, congestive heart failure, sudden death or cardiovascular-related death) as serious adverse events asociated with the use of varenicline.

Results:

We analyzed data from 14 double-blind randomized controlled trials involving 8216 participants. The trials ranged in duration from 7 to 52 weeks. Varenicline was associated with a significantly increased risk of serious adverse cardiovascular events compared with placebo (1.06% [52/4908] in varenicline group v. 0.82% [27/3308] in placebo group; Peto odds ratio [OR] 1.72, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.09–2.71; I² = 0%). The results of various sensitivity analyses were consistent with those of the main analysis, and a funnel plot showed no publication bias. There were too few deaths to allow meaningful comparisons of mortality.

Interpretation:

Our meta-analysis raises safety concerns about the potential for an increased risk of serious adverse cardiovascular events associated with the use of varenicline among tobacco users.Varenicline is one of the most widely used drugs for smoking cessation. It is a partial agonist at the α₄–β₂ nicotinic acetylcholine receptors and a full agonist at the α₇ nicotinic acetylcholine receptor.^1,2 The drug modulates parasympathetic output from the brainstem to the heart because of activities of the α₇ receptor.³ Acute nicotine administration can induce thrombosis.⁴ Possible mechanisms by which varenicline may be associated with cardiovascular disease might include the action of varenicline at the α₇ receptor in the brainstem or, similar to nicotine, a prothrombotic effect.^2–4At the time of its priority safety review of varenicline in 2006, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) noted that “[t]he serious adverse event data suggest that varenicline may possibly increase the risk of cardiac events, both ischemic and arrhythmic, particularly over longer treatment period.”⁵ Subsequently, the product label was updated: “Post marketing reports of myocardial infarction and cerebrovascular accidents including ischemic and hemorrhagic events have been reported in patients taking Chantix.”⁶ There are published reports of cardiac arrest associated with varenicline.⁷Cardiovascular disease is an important cause of morbidity and mortality among tobacco users. The long-term cardiovascular benefits of smoking cessation are well established.⁸ Although one statistically underpowered trial reported a trend toward excess cardiovascular events associated with the use of varenicline,⁹ a systematic review of information on the cardiovascular effects of varenicline is unavailable to clinicians.We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to ascertain the serious adverse cardiovascular effects of varenicline compared with placebo among tobacco users.