Towards mapping the late Quaternary vegetation change of Europe

The number of well-dated pollen diagrams in Europe has increased considerably over the last 30 years and many of them have been submitted to the European Pollen Database (EPD). This allows for the construction of increasingly precise maps of Holocene vegetation change across the continent. Chronological information in the EPD has been expressed in uncalibrated radiocarbon years, and most chronologies to date are based on this time scale. Here we present new chronologies for most of the datasets stored in the EPD based on calibrated radiocarbon years. Age information associated with pollen diagrams is often derived from the pollen stratigraphy itself or from other sedimentological information. We reviewed these chronological tie points and assigned uncertainties to them. The steps taken to generate the new chronologies are described and the rationale for a new classification system for age uncertainties is introduced. The resulting chronologies are fit for most continental-scale questions. They may not provide the best age model for particular sites, but may be viewed as general purpose chronologies. Taxonomic particularities of the data stored in the EPD are explained. An example is given of how the database can be queried to select samples with appropriate age control as well as the suitable taxonomic level to answer a specific research question.     

中国第四纪晚期孢粉记录整理

孢粉数据库是重建过去植被格局以及研究古气候变化和大气圈-生物圈-人类活动相互关系的基础,而孢粉取样信息的记录和整理是建立孢粉数据库的重要前提。该文在收集我国1960–2008年发表的孢粉研究文献的基础上,整理分析了第四纪晚期,尤其是2万年以来(全新世为主)全国孢粉采样点的信息,包括采样地点名称、详细采样位置、省份、采样点经纬度和海拔高度、样品类型、取样深度、孢粉样品数量、14C测年数量及年代记录、覆盖的时间段和参考文献。总结发现,我国目前共有2324个表土/湖泊表层花粉采样点和987个第四纪晚期的地层沉积剖面和钻孔,其中高质量的地层孢粉采样点714个。虽然我国以及部分国际上从事第四纪研究的科学家尽了最大努力开展中国疆域的孢粉学研究,但由于人力、物力以及地形条件的限制,在我国仍然存在部分孢粉采样的"地理空隙",比如北方和西北荒漠地区、青藏高原无人区、中南部山区和东部人类活动频繁区域。然而,该数据信息库的不断完善,将为中国第四纪孢粉数据库的建立奠定良好基础。     

The spread of<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Abies</Emphasis> throughout Europe since the last glacial period: combined macrofossil and pollen data

In this paper we reconstruct the location of the last glacial refugia and postglacial spread of Abies throughout Europe based on combined pollen and macrofossil data. More than 208 pollen sequences available in the European Pollen Database (EPD) and 38 macrofossil sites are used to produce distribution maps encompassing a time span between 38000 and 5500 years B.P. The investigation excludes more recent periods, because these could be strongly influenced by human impact. The pollen data presented here confirm long-lasting refugial areas such as southern Italy and Greece already described in previous studies. The combined pollen/macrofossil dataset identifies the Pyrenees as a further important refugium. In addition the pollen data indicate potential refugia in south-east France and north-west Italy. Possible migration tracks of Abies are discussed by comparing the palaeobotanical evidence with isozyme studies on gene markers of recent fir populations.Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00334-004-0049-4.     

A contribution to deciphering the meaning of AP/NAP with respect to vegetation cover

This study reopens the discussion on the AP/NAP ratio that contrasts the total number of Arboreal Pollen grains (AP) to that of the Non-Arboreal Pollen grains (NAP), and its meaning in terms of vegetation land-cover. Based on a set of 52 present-day pollen assemblages (mostly moss polsters) from continental France and black- and-white aerial photographs of these localities, we perform statistical analyses to clarify the meaning of the AP/NAP ratio. Short- and long-distance transported pollen grains, possible over-representation of Pinus, and distortion of cultivated plants are among the biases explored here and for which answers are given. Grey level analysis of the aerial photographs provides direct estimates of the Tree Surface/Herb Surface (TS/HS) ratio for a radius of 1000 m around the sampling point. Statistical estimates of the AP/NAP and TS/HS cut-off values separating tree- and herb-prevalent landscapes are computed. Such results obtained from modern pollen records have been applied to a Late Pliocene small maar locality from southern France characterized by a very weak pollen transport and provide the basis to further distinguish tree- and herb-prevalent landscapes in past pollen records.     

A probabilistic approach to the use of pollen indicators for plant attributes and biomes: an application to European vegetation at 0 and 6 ka

Aim This paper presents a probabilistic method for the characterization of pollen taxa using attributes, and for the reconstitution of past biomes. The probabilities are calculated on the basis of European floristic and pollen databases sufficiently large and exhaustive to provide robust estimates. Location The analysis is based on data from approximately 1000 sites throughout Europe. Method We use all the pollen data from the European Pollen Database (EPD), which contains about 50 000 pollen assemblages distributed across Europe and covering the period from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present. Using existing floras, each pollen taxon has been characterized by allocating one or more modes of several attributes, chosen according to the biogeography and phenology of the taxon. With this information, conditional probabilities are defined, representing the chance of a given attribute mode occurring in a given pollen spectrum, when the taxa assemblage is known. The concept of co‐occurrence is used to provide a greater amount of information to compensate for difficulties in the identification of pollen grains, allowing a better interpretation when there is little diversity in the pollen assemblage. Results The method has been validated using a dataset of modern samples against existing methods of biome classification and remote sensing data. An application is proposed in which the new method is used to produce biomes for pollen data 6000 years ago. This confirms previous results showing an extension of the deciduous forest to the north, east and south, explained by milder winters in western and northern Europe, and cooler and wetter climate in the Mediterranean region. Conclusion The results show the new method to be efficient, reliable and flexible and to be an improvement over the previous method of biomization. They will be used to test simulations of earth system models running on periods with climate significantly different from the present day, enabling a robust test of the validity of applying these models to the future.     

From forest to farmland: pollen‐inferred land cover change across Europe using the pseudobiomization approach

Maps of continental‐scale land cover are utilized by a range of diverse users but whilst a range of products exist that describe present and recent land cover in Europe, there are currently no datasets that describe past variations over long time‐scales. User groups with an interest in past land cover include the climate modelling community, socio‐ecological historians and earth system scientists. Europe is one of the continents with the longest histories of land conversion from forest to farmland, thus understanding land cover change in this area is globally significant. This study applies the pseudobiomization method (PBM) to 982 pollen records from across Europe, taken from the European Pollen Database (EPD) to produce a first synthesis of pan‐European land cover change for the period 9000 bp to present, in contiguous 200 year time intervals. The PBM transforms pollen proportions from each site to one of eight land cover classes (LCCs) that are directly comparable to the CORINE land cover classification. The proportion of LCCs represented in each time window provides a spatially aggregated record of land cover change for temperate and northern Europe, and for a series of case study regions (western France, the western Alps, and the Czech Republic and Slovakia). At the European scale, the impact of Neolithic food producing economies appear to be detectable from 6000 bp through reduction in broad‐leaf forests resulting from human land use activities such as forest clearance. Total forest cover at a pan‐European scale moved outside the range of previous background variability from 4000 bp onwards. From 2200 bp land cover change intensified, and the broad pattern of land cover for preindustrial Europe was established by 1000 bp . Recognizing the timing of anthropogenic land cover change in Europe will further the understanding of land cover‐climate interactions, and the origins of the modern cultural landscape.     

Vegetation and climate reconstructions on different time scales in China: a review of Chinese palynological research

This paper reviews vegetation and climate reconstructions for different time scales based on palynological studies in China. It discusses examples of significant developments in palynological research topics within China: (1) Modern pollen—a modern pollen database (East Asia Surface Pollen Database) has been established through the collaboration of Chinese palynologists. Based on these data, modern pollen distributions and their quantitative relationship with vegetation and climate have been thoroughly studied. (2) Pre-Quaternary vegetation and climate dynamics—scientists have mapped pollen and palaeobotanical data from the Palaeogene. The vegetation distributions confirm a north–south zonal pattern during the Palaeogene that changed to an east–west monsoonal pattern during the Miocene and Pliocene. These results provide key evidence for understanding monsoon evolution. (3) Late-Quaternary vegetation—biome reconstructions based on fossil pollen data show spatial and temporal changes in vegetation since the Last Glacial Maximum, permitting a better understanding of climate change across China. (4) Quantitative climate reconstructions—some reconstructions have successfully detected Holocene climate variability thereby providing insights into monsoon history. At present, there are no comprehensive spatial reconstructions. Major possible future developments should focus on: (1) long-term vegetation reconstructions from lakes to study Asian monsoon dynamics at orbital scales; (2) quantitative reconstructions of vegetation and climate change to help stronger integration with palaeoclimate models and dynamic vegetation models; (3) land-cover and land-use change across China over the last 6,000 years to understand human impacts and provide empirical data for climate modellers; and (4) integration of pollen data with vegetation and climate modelling to understand the CO₂-vegetation relationship and climate dynamics.     

南京汤山驼子洞鬣狗粪化石的孢粉分析

南京汤山驼子洞洞穴堆积中鬣狗粪化石含有相对丰富的孢粉,推测草食性哺乳动物食用带有孢粉的植物后,经鬣狗的猎杀、摄食、消化和排泄,孢粉较好地保存在鬣狗粪中,形成粪化石,成为洞穴地层的组成部分。虽然鬣狗粪化石中的孢粉含量不及湖沼相地层中丰富,但有几种植物的花粉保存较好且相对集中,如Pinus,Tsuga,Quercus,Carpinus,Artemisia,Cyperaceae,Polygonum,Polypodiaceae出现的频率较高。孢粉组合揭示早更新世南京地区植被主要是草原或森林-草地,气候凉干或半干旱半湿润,可以和地层中脊椎动物群反映的自然环境相互印证。在研究洞穴古环境的代用指标中,堆积物中的鬣狗粪化石中包含的孢粉是比较好的研究对象,对环境有一定的指示意义。     

中国现代花粉数据集

孢粉是重建古植被、古气候的重要基础数据。孢粉数据库对研究样点至区域和全球尺度上的古环境演变规律、古气候变化特征反演和古生物地球化学循环模拟等具有重要意义。该文收集整理了中国1960-2020年间发表和部分未发表的现代花粉数据记录, 包括样品编号、采样位置、采样地经纬度和海拔高度、样品类型、数据来源、数据类型、周边植被信息、参考文献、花粉类群及其含量等信息; 并对数据进行筛选和标准化等处理, 由此整合为中国现代花粉数据集。该数据集由4 497个现代花粉采样点的数据信息组成, 包括660个来自中国第四纪孢粉数据库数据, 1 763个前期整理发表的数据和2 074个近期收集的数据, 涵盖772个花粉类群。样品类型以土壤表层样品(3 332个)为主, 苔藓样品以及湖泊、海洋表层样品等为辅, 广泛分布于全国不同地理区域和植被类型中, 其中以温带荒漠区域(24.91%)和亚热带常绿阔叶林区域(24.02%)最丰富, 其次为温带草原区域(16.14%)和青藏高原高寒植被区域(15.83%)。数据按照来源可分为原始数据(58%)和数值化数据(42%); 按照数据类型可分为原始统计粒数的样点(59%)和以花粉百分比表达的样点(41%)。半个多世纪以来, 科研人员开展了大量的表层现代花粉取样和研究。本数据集虽然仅获取部分记录, 但样点覆盖了我国绝大多数地区, 可有效地用于古植被与古气候重建的现代孢粉与现代植被校验, 并将为中国孢粉数据库的建立与更深入的孢粉研究提供数据支撑。     

Creating spatially continuous maps of past land cover from point estimates: A new statistical approach applied to pollen data

Reliable estimates of past land cover are critical for assessing potential effects of anthropogenic land-cover changes on past earth surface-climate feedbacks and landscape complexity. Fossil pollen records from lakes and bogs have provided important information on past natural and human-induced vegetation cover. However, those records provide only point estimates of past land cover, and not the spatially continuous maps at regional and sub-continental scales needed for climate modelling.We propose a set of statistical models that create spatially continuous maps of past land cover by combining two data sets: 1) pollen-based point estimates of past land cover (from the REVEALS model) and 2) spatially continuous estimates of past land cover, obtained by combining simulated potential vegetation (from LPJ-GUESS) with an anthropogenic land-cover change scenario (KK10). The proposed models rely on statistical methodology for compositional data and use Gaussian Markov Random Fields to model spatial dependencies in the data.Land-cover reconstructions are presented for three time windows in Europe: 0.05, 0.2, and 6 ka years before present (BP). The models are evaluated through cross-validation, deviance information criteria and by comparing the reconstruction of the 0.05 ka time window to the present-day land-cover data compiled by the European Forest Institute (EFI). For 0.05 ka, the proposed models provide reconstructions that are closer to the EFI data than either the REVEALS- or LPJ-GUESS/KK10-based estimates; thus the statistical combination of the two estimates improves the reconstruction. The reconstruction by the proposed models for 0.2 ka is also good. For 6 ka, however, the large differences between the REVEALS- and LPJ-GUESS/KK10-based estimates reduce the reliability of the proposed models. Possible reasons for the increased differences between REVEALS and LPJ-GUESS/KK10 for older time periods and further improvement of the proposed models are discussed.     

Fossil pollen as a record of past biodiversity

Quaternary pollen records may contribute uniquely to the understanding of present plant diversity. Pollen assemblages can reflect diversity at community and landscape scales but the time resolution of most studies does not match that of modern ecological studies. Because of the complicating effects of differential pollen productivity and dispersal, pollen records do not directly reflect equitability aspects of vegetation diversity. Vegetation diversity indices other than S (the total number of taxa) are therefore not appropriate for pollen assemblages. As a measure of the species richness palynological richness is biased by the lack of taxonomic precision, by a possible interference on pollen dispersal from vegetation structure and by pollen representation. The nonlinear relationship between species richness and pollen-taxa richness may be used in attempts to estimate past floristic richness from fossil pollen assemblages. Using a hypothetical example the strong effect of cover shifts in the vegetation affecting taxa with different representation (R_rel) values on observed palynological richness is demonstrated. It is suggested that estimates of relative pollen productivity should be used to guide the pollen sum on which pollen-type richness is estimated by rarefaction techniques and this approach is illustrated using a paired site study of late Holocene diversity dynamics. The need for a modern training set relating pollen-type richness to species richness, pollen productivity and vegetation structure is emphasized.     

Pollen–vegetation relationships along steep climatic gradients in western Amazonia

Question: How accurately do Amazonian montane forest pollen spectra reflect the vegetation? Can compositional changes observed in the vegetation along environmental gradients be identified in the pollen spectra? How well do herbarium collection data and bioclimatic envelopes represent abundance changes along elevation gradients? Location: Amazonian montane forests, Peru. Methods: Moss polsters collected along five altitudinal transects spanning over 3000 m a.s.l. were used to characterize pollen spectra. Vegetation plot data from a network of 15 1‐ha permanent plots were used to correlate pollen spectra with present‐day vegetation. Probability density functions (PDFs) fitted to pollen and plot data allowed comparisons using Spearman correlation coefficients. Ordination analyses were used to summarize changes in pollen spectra. Correlations between pollen‐based PDFs and previously‐published herbarium collection PDFs were also evaluated. Results: Pollen spectra closely reflected changes in species composition along elevation gradients. A mid‐elevation shift in pollen spectra was identified using ordination analyses. Pollen spectra from the driest forest in our data set were statistically different from those of wet forests. Pollen abundance PDFs along the altitudinal gradient were significantly correlated (P<0.01) with PDFs fitted to plot abundance, basal area and herbarium collection data for ten out of 11 taxa analysed. Conclusions: Pollen spectra closely reflected the vegetation composition of Amazonian montane forests. The differentiation of pollen spectra from dry localities showed the potential of genus‐level pollen data to reflect precipitation gradients. Pollen spectra also reflected mid‐elevation compositional changes well along the lower elevation limit of ground cloud formation. Despite collection biases, herbarium‐based bioclimatic envelope PDFs also represented well forest compositional changes along elevation gradients.     

Aerobiology and palaeoecology

Summary Aerobiology involves the study of particles present in the air. Of these, palaeoecologists are most interested in pollen and spores, specially those which come to rest on the surface of the ground. Pollen sampling in palaeoecological studies, therefore, uses a pollen trap which is placed at ground level and the sampling period is a whole season or year.Using examples from northern Finland, for each vegetation type sampled, a pollen analogue is obtained which comprises percentage presence and deposition values cm^–2 year^–1 for the pollen types recorded. This analogue is used to interpret pollen assemblages from the past. In general, the tree pollen provides information of the regional situation and the herbaceous pollen of specific local conditions. Both natural and man-made environments are considered. The absolute deposition values are often crucial in distinguishing between two plant communities with otherwise similar percentage pollen values. They can also be used to follow the location of the boundaries between different vegetation types through time. Seasonal records of pollen deposition are sometimes useful in distinguishing the different source of the pollen reaching a specific site. In certain instances, annual pollen deposition values can be employed to estimate the rate of accumulation of a peat deposit. In addition, long series of annual pollen deposition values can be compared with meteorological data for the same period to test for trends and correlations. This, potentially, allows both a more detailed interpretation of past climatic changes and provides a basis for models predicting futures ones.     

The use of modelling and simulation approach in reconstructing past landscapes from fossil pollen data: a review and results from the POLLANDCAL network

Information on past land cover in terms of absolute areas of different landscape units (forest, open land, pasture land, cultivated land, etc.) at local to regional scales is needed to test hypotheses and answer questions related to climate change (e.g. feedbacks effects of land-cover change), archaeological research, and nature conservancy (e.g. management strategy). The palaeoecological technique best suited to achieve quantitative reconstruction of past vegetation is pollen analysis. A simulation approach developed by Sugita (the computer model POLLSCAPE) which uses models based on the theory of pollen analysis is presented together with examples of application. POLLSCAPE has been adopted as the central tool for POLLANDCAL (POLlen/LANdscape CALibration), an international research network focusing on this topic. The theory behind models of the pollen–vegetation relationship and POLLSCAPE is reviewed. The two model outputs which receive greatest attention in this paper are the relevant source area of pollen (RSAP) and pollen loading in mires and lakes. Six examples of application of POLLSCAPE are presented, each of which explores a possible use of the POLLANDCAL tools and a means of validating or evaluating the models with empirical data. The landscape and vegetation factors influencing the size of the RSAP, the importance of pollen productivity estimates (PPEs) for the model outputs, the detection of small and rare patches of plant taxa in pollen records, and quantitative reconstructions of past vegetation and landscapes are discussed on the basis of these examples. The simulation approach is seen to be useful both for exploring different vegetation/landscape scenarios and for refuting hypotheses.     

Numerical Characteristics of Pollen Assemblages of Surface Samples from the West Kunlun Mountains

A total of 31 suface sediment samples were collected from West Kunlun Mountain in south Xinjiang Autonomous Region in northwest China. These samples are from seven types of vegetation: Picea schrenkiana Fisch. et Mey. forest, Sabina Spach. woodland, sub-alpine steppe, alpine meadow, desert vegetion, cushion-vegetation and vegetation adjancent to glaciers. Pollen percentages and pollen concentrations were calculated in all samples. The dominant pollen types in the region are Chenopodiaceae, Artemisia, Picea, Ephedra, Gramineae, Cyperaceae, Rosaceae, Leguminosae, Compositae etc. In order to reveal the relationship between pollen composition and the vegetation type from which the soil sample was collected, principal component analysis and group average cluster analysis were employed on the pollen data. The results revealed that the major vegetation types in this region could be distinguished by pollen composition: a. Samples from desert vegetation were dominated by pollen of Chenopodiaceae (about 60195%). The percentages of all other pollen types were low. b. Picea forest samples were rich in Picea pollen (about 20%) Sabina forest had more Sabina pollen grains than other vegetation types (about 5%, others <1%). Pollen percentages of Artemisia, Chenopodiaceae and Ephedra were comparatively higher (each about 20%) in these samples from the two types of vegetations. C. Pollen percentages of Artemisia, Cyperaceae, Gramineae and Chenopodiaceae were high in both sub-alpine steppe and alpine meadow. But steppe containal more Artemisia and Chenopodiaceae (steppe 33.75% and 32.30%, meadow 15.57% and 19.48% in average), less Cyperaceae and Gramineae (steppe 2.58% and 7.60%, meadow 22.35% and 12.93% in average) than meadow. d. Samples from cushion-vegetation and vegetation adjacent to glaciers were mainly composed of pollen grains transported from other sites. It was not easy to distinguish them from other vegetation types. Principal component analysis and cluster analysis distinguish samples from Picea forest, Sabina woodland, sub-alpine steppe, alpine meadow and desert vegetation. Therefore we think it will be possible to apply the module to reconstruct past vegetation in this region and other similar regions. Regression analysis was also applied to reveal the relationships between pollen and plant percentages of Artemisia, Chenopodiaceae, Cyperaceae and Gramineae. The results indicated that a linear relationship existed between pollen and plant percentages for Artemisia, Chenopodiaceae and Cyperaeeae.     

Coastal dune vegetation and pollen representation in south Buenos Aires Province, Argentina

Aim To establish the relationship between coastal dune vegetation and its pollen representation as an aid to interpret Holocene vegetation dynamics and environmental changes from pollen assemblages. Location The study area is situated on the temperate Atlantic coast of south Buenos Aires Province, Argentina (c. 39° S and 61°20′ W). Methods The vegetation of the active dune area adjacent to the beach was described on the basis of its floristic composition from 25 plots. Classification of the vegetation into distinct zones was carried out by cluster analysis. Surface samples were collected from each vegetation stand and analysed for their pollen composition. Pollen percentage data were analysed using principal components analysis in order to investigate the degree to which the different vegetation units can be distinguished by their pollen spectra. Pollen–vegetation relationships for selected taxa were explored using simple scatter plots and indices of association, under‐ and over‐representation. Indices of floristic diversity and palynological richness were used to assess the representation of the vegetation in the pollen spectra. Results and conclusions Five vegetation zones are defined on the basis of species composition and their quantitative variation: back shore, mobile dunes, slacks, semi‐fixed and fixed dunes. Pollen assemblages from back shore, mobile dunes and slacks are clearly differentiated from semi‐fixed and fixed dunes. Pollen assemblages differ considerably from the associated vegetation composition. Major discrepancies are caused by large differences in pollen and vegetation proportion of Hyalis argentea and Discaria americana. There is a considerable proportion of non‐local pollen in every spectrum. Pollen representation in the coastal dunes at Monte Hermoso is influenced by differences in pollen production, dispersal and preservation of individual taxa as well as by the spatial distribution of the vegetation, the topography of the dune system and the wind pattern. The pollen–vegetation relationship established in this study has important implication for understanding and interpreting fossil pollen records from coastal dune environments.     

Using a historical map as a baseline in a land-cover change study of northeast Tanzania

Vegetation data in an early 20th century map from northern Tanzania are presented and discussed for its potential of expanding the analytical time-frame in studies of land-use and land-cover change. The starting point is that much research on land-use and land-cover change suffers from a time-frame bias, caused by limitations in remote sensing data. At the same time, the use of historical maps as a complementary data-set is rather insignificant. Can information in historical maps be used to extend the baseline in land-use and land-cover change studies? The historical context of the vegetation data is evaluated, and as an illustration of its potential for interdisciplinary research on land-cover and ecosystems change, a section of the map is juxtaposed with a recent pollen record specifically addressing the impact of a 'large infrequent disturbance' (LID) event at the end of the 19th century. It is concluded that the vegetation data in the map are not likely to be reflecting an extreme situation due to the LID event. Finally, the historical vegetation data were visually compared with a national 1995 land-cover data set, illustrating the possibility of using the map data as a baseline in land-cover change studies.     

A taphonomic study of modern pollen assemblages from dung and surface sediments in arid environments of Spain

Coastal plant communities in arid southeastern Spain are characterized by insect-pollinated scrub species, which fail to occur in Quaternary pollen sequences from valleys, marshlands and marine cores. We investigate pollen–vegetation relationships in samples from soil surfaces, animal dung, and sediments in depressions or basins that, in theory, should have pollen spectra that are comparable to those from sedimentary basins elsewhere. Pollen spectra from basins or depressions are very susceptible to long-distance wind and water transport. This can mask representation of pollen from the surrounding insect-pollinated vegetation, as can over-representation of basin-margin halophilous and hydrophilous pollen. Pollen spectra from biogenic materials of animal origin are the best analogues of local and regional vegetation, and show the best analytical potential in terms of pollen concentration and taxon diversity. Pollination properties of the species studied indicate they will rarely be found in most conventional pollen records. It cannot be stressed too strongly that insight into Quaternary vegetation of arid regions demands complementary pollen analysis of coprolites, urine-cemented deposits, and cave sediments with preserved biotic remains, in addition to water-lain sediments.     

Palaeoecology and plant population dynamics

The pollen record of the past 10–20 thousand years is a source of data both on long-term climatic change and on the dynamics of plant populations in response to climatic change. Time sequences of pollen accumulation rates record invasions of tree taxa over 10¹–10³ years. Palaeoecologists have fifted such data with simple population dynamic models that assume a constant climate. Population doubling times estimated from the pollen record are consistent with species' life-history characteristics and with estimates based on the population structure of modern forests. This palaeo-ecological approach complements palaeoclimatological studies of longeer-term (10³–10⁵-year) population shifts, in which population response is assumed instantaneous. Both approaches depend on population responses being fast compared to the climatic changes that cause them. Pollen data also record the more complex interactions between climate and vegetation that occur during periods of rapid climatic change, and could be used to test more realistic models of vegetation dynamics in a changing environment.     

Reassessment of Holocene vegetation change on the upper Tibetan Plateau using the pollen-based REVEALS model

Previous studies based on fossil pollen data have reported significant changes in vegetation on the alpine Tibetan Plateau during the Holocene. However, since the relative proportions of fossil pollen taxa are largely influenced by individual pollen productivities and the dispersal characteristics, such inferences on vegetation have the potential to be considerably biased. We therefore examined the modern pollen–vegetation relationships for four common pollen species on the Tibetan Plateau, using Extended R-value (ERV) models. Assuming an average radius of 100 m for the sampled lakes, we estimated the relevant source area of pollen (RSAP) to be 2200 m (which represents the distance from the lake). Using Poaceae as the reference taxa (Pollen Productivity Estimate, PPE = 1), ERV Submodel 2 derived relative high PPEs for the steppe and desert taxa: 2.079 ± 0.432 for Artemisia and 5.379 ± 1.077 for Chenopodiaceae. Low PPEs were estimated for the Cyperaceae (1.036 ± 0.012), whose plants are characteristic of the alpine Kobresia meadows. Applying these PPEs to four fossil pollen sequences since the Late Glacial, the plant abundances on the central and north-eastern Tibetan Plateau were quantified using the “Regional Estimates of Vegetation Abundance from Large Sites” (REVEALS) model. The proportions of Artemisia and Chenopodiaceae were greatly reduced compared to their original pollen percentages in the reconstructed vegetation, owing to their high productivities and their dispersal characteristics, while Cyperaceae showed a relative increase in the vegetation reconstruction. The reconstructed vegetation assemblages of the four pollen sequence sites always yielded smaller compositional species turnovers than suggested by the pollen spectra, as revealed by Detrended Canonical Correspondence Analyses (DCCA) of the Holocene sections. The strength of the previously reported vegetation changes may therefore have been overestimated, which indicates the importance of taking into account pollen–vegetation relationships when discussing the potential drivers (such as climate, land use, atmospheric CO₂ concentrations) and implications (such as for land surface–climate feedbacks, carbon storage, and biodiversity) of vegetation change.