Estimating forest elephant density in Sapo National Park (Liberia) with a rainfall model

The number of elephant dung‐piles lying on the forest floor is a function of the number of elephants present and the rainfall in the 2 preceding months. We present the results of a stochastic model that describes this relationship and we show how it can be used to estimate elephant numbers. The data from a survey in Sapo NP (Liberia) in 1989 are used as an example. The dung‐pile density was estimated at 152 km^?2 with confidence interval from 72 to 322, and the number of elephants was estimated to be 313 with confidence interval from 172 to 617.     

Dung survey bias and elephant population estimates in southern Mozambique

We used dung surveys to estimate population size and extracted an age structure from boli diameters for the elephants living in the Maputo Elephant Reserve. Our estimate was based on published defecation rates, dung decay rates, distance-sampling techniques and 1,672 dung piles encountered on 204 line-transects. The reserve had at least 311 (95% CI: 198–490) elephants at a density of 0.60 (95% CI: 0.38–0.94) per km². However, observer bias reduced effective strip widths and inflated estimates and their confidence limits. The age structure extrapolated from dung measurements indicated few newborn calves compared with other populations. To detect population changes of 2–5% at 80% power, dung surveys should be carried out every second year for the next 20 years using 100 transects of at least 500 m each. Comparison with a 1995 dung survey suggests that the population is stable and that previous fears of a major population decline during the civil war have no foundation.     

The problem of precision and trend detection posed by small elephant populations in West Africa

The precision of elephant estimates from aerial sample surveys and dung counts is inversely proportional to abundance. West African elephant populations are already small, and the power of a monitoring programme to detect changes in abundance diminishes as the population shrinks in size. Thus it will be difficult to evaluate the effects on elephant numbers of new management policies in West Africa. The same will be true of monitoring schemes for antelope and primate populations that are hunted for bushmeat. Elephant estimates from dung counts are more precise than those from aerial sample surveys, and changes in elephant numbers are more likely to be detected in the subregion by dung counts than by aerial sample surveys.     

Rainfall pattern and nutrient content influences on African elephants’ debarking behaviour in Samburu and Buffalo Springs National Reserves,Kenya

The magnitude of debarking by elephants was investigated in Samburu and Buffalo Springs National Reserves. About 1617 plants were monitored for debarking intensities for 6 months spanning through dry and wet seasons. Debarking indices ranged from no debarking at all during the wet months to complete stem girding at the height of the dry season. A negative correlation was found between rainfall and debarking indices. It was hypothesized that nutrient content of the bark influenced the magnitude to which trees were debarked. Bark samples were collected from least, moderate and intensely debarked plants throughout the 6 months. These were analysed for calcium (Ca), sodium (Na), phosphorus (P), magnesium (Mg), potassium (K), nitrogen (N), iron (Fe), copper (Cu), manganese (Mn) and zinc (Zn). Significant positive correlations were found between debarking intensity and each of the nutrients N [crude protein (CP)], P, K and Zn. Bark was found to be richest in CP and Calcium. Neutral detergent fibre content was on average 67%. Monthly variations in nutrient composition were minimal. Acacia elatior, the most preferred species had significantly higher quantities of each of the four elements N, P, K and Zn than Acacia tortilis, the second most preferred woody species.     

Changes in the Ruaha elephant population caused by poaching

Found-ivory records complement the information provided by aerial surveys to illustrate changes in the Ruaha elephant population between 1973 and 1988. Intense poaching in the late 1970s and early 1980s reduced the numbers of elephants by about 60% and also distorted the age structure of the survivors. There are now few cows > 34 years and few bulls > 16 years. Footprint measurements in 1989 showed a lack of calves aged 2 to 9 years but many new-born infants.     

Counting elephants in Montane forests: some sources of error

The dung count method is widely used to estimate elephant numbers in forests. It was developed in the lowland forests of Central Africa but it is also used in Montane forests in eastern Africa. Using data collected on Mount Kenya and computer simulations, this paper explores the following issues associated with dung surveys in Montane forests:

• • 

  High rainfall at 3000 m altitude on Mount Kenya was expected to accelerate dung pile decay but no significant difference was found between 3000 and 2500 m where less rain falls, possibly because high rainfall at 3000 m is counteracted by lower temperatures;
• • 

  Physical obstacles make it difficult to walk long, straight transects in Montane forests. Deviating from a straight line pushes the distribution of distance measurements from dung piles to the transect centre line (pdist) towards a negative exponential (NE), which complicates data analysis and may give inaccurate estimates. Using short transects largely alleviate this problem;
• • 

  Analysis of dung count simulations shows that the expected sightability curve of pdist pushes towards a NE with increasing numbers of obstacles blocking the view, even along perfectly straight transects;
• • 

  Extrapolating measured dung density to map area on Mount Kenya resulted in an underestimate of c. 13%. An unstratified correction of map area to ground area for Montane areas would be biased because of the strong tendency for elephants to avoid steeply sloping areas.

     

Man determines the distribution of elephants in the rain forests of northeastern Gabon

Dropping counts were used to assess elephant abundance in the remote forests of northeastern Gabon where there are few people and no logging. Elephants prefer the secondary forest which grows on abandoned villages and plantations, but avoid roads and villages. Thus elephant distribution is governed by the distribution of both past and present human settlement, even in the remotest and least disturbed forests of equatorial Africa.

Résumé

On a évalué l'abondance des éléphants en comptant les excréments, dans les forêts reculées du nord-est du Gabon, là où il n'y a que peu de gens et aucun abattage d'arbres. Les éléphants préférent les forêts secondaires qui poussent dans les villages et les plantations abandonnés, mais évitent routes et villages. Donc, la distribution des éléphants est régie par la répartition des installations humaines présentes et passées, même dans les forêts les plus reculées et les moins troublées d'Afrique équatoriale.     

Seasonality in elephant dung decay and implications for censusing and population monitoring in south-western Cameroon

Dung decay rates have been used in the past to correct elephant dung counts to estimates of population numbers. These assume that the dung is in a ‘steady state’ where production rates are equal to disappearance rates. The inter‐seasonal variation in decay rates, however, has never been fully investigated for elephant dung. This study, in the Banyang‐Mbo Wildlife Sanctuary in SW Cameroon, investigated whether a single dung decay rate is really appropriate when converting dung counts to population density estimates. A total of 870 fresh elephant dung‐piles were monitored until they had completely decayed, with at least 60 fresh dung piles located each month of the year between July 1994 to June 1995. The elephant dung decay rate obtained was 55.6% to 66.7% lower than those obtained for the rainforests of Gabon. This has implications for using decay rates obtained elsewhere to compute elephant densities from dung counts. Statistically significant differences were found in the mean duration of dung‐piles between different months and different seasons. Environmental variables, with the exception of rainfall, did not aid in predicting the duration of elephant dung‐piles. The model of Plumptre & Harris was used to estimate the standing crop of dung at any particular time of the year. The results show that, if there was no emigration of elephants from the population, then there was only a three‐month period when the dung was in a ‘steady state’. If emigration occurred during the wet season as is thought to occur then there was no period of ‘steady state’.     

Rainfall and rats: Climatically-driven dynamics of a tropical rodent population

A five-year mark–recapture study of dusky rats (Rattus colletti) on the Adelaide River floodplain, within the Australian wet–dry tropics, revealed substantial spatial and temporal variation in demographic characteristics (abundance, condition, and rates of survival, growth, and reproduction) of the rats. Our data suggest that annual variation in the intensity and timing of monsoonal rainfall during the ‘wet-season’ is the main factor driving the demography of the rats. When total rainfall figures are modified to reflect the magnitude and duration of inundation of the floodplain each year, a link is evident between rainfall patterns and the rat population dynamics. Minor spatial variations in elevation (and hence, in the duration of inundation) across the floodplain engender large differences in rat growth rates, condition factors, survival rates, and the duration of reproductive activity each year. Because these rats have very high reproductive rates, small rain-induced differences in the duration of their reproductive season (i.e. number of litters per year) can cause massive differences in subsequent rat abundances. Hence, rat numbers can be predicted from rainfall patterns during the preceding wet-season. Similar links between rainfall, the duration of breeding, and fluctuations in abundance may typify many rodent populations in tropical and arid regions of the world.     

Heard but not seen: an acoustic survey of the African forest elephant population at Kakum Conservation Area, Ghana

This study, designed to survey forest elephants ( Loxodonta africana cyclotis ) at Kakum Conservation Area, Ghana, is the first to apply acoustic methods to elephant abundance estimation and to compare results with independent survey estimates. Nine acoustic sensors gathered sound continuously for 38 days. Low-frequency calling rates have been established as useful elephant abundance indices at a Namibian watering hole and a central African forest clearing. In this study, we estimated elephant population size by applying an abundance index model and detection function developed in central Africa to data from simultaneous sampling periods on Kakum sensors. The sensor array recorded an average of 1.81 calls per 20-min sampling period from an effective detection area averaging 10.27 km². The resulting estimate of 294 elephants (95% CI: 259–329) falls within confidence bounds of recent dung-based surveys. An extended acoustic model, estimating the frequency with which elephants are silent when present, yields an estimate of 350 elephants (95% CI: 315–384). Acoustic survey confidence intervals are at least half as wide as those from dung-based surveys. This study demonstrates that acoustic surveying is a valuable tool for estimating elephant abundance, as well as for detecting other vocal species and anthropogenic noises that may be associated with poaching.     

Rainfall seasonality and drought performance shape the distribution of tropical tree species in Ghana

Tree species distribution in lowland tropical forests is strongly associated with rainfall amount and distribution. Not only plant water availability, but also irradiance, soil fertility, and pest pressure covary along rainfall gradients. To assess the role of water availability in shaping species distribution, we carried out a reciprocal transplanting experiment in gaps in a dry and a wet forest site in Ghana, using 2,670 seedlings of 23 tree species belonging to three contrasting rainfall distributions groups (dry species, ubiquitous species, and wet species). We evaluated seasonal patterns in climatic conditions, seedling physiology and performance (survival and growth) over a 2‐year period and related seedling performance to species distribution along Ghana's rainfall gradient. The dry forest site had, compared to the wet forest, higher irradiance, and soil nutrient availability and experienced stronger atmospheric drought (2.0 vs. 0.6 kPa vapor pressure deficit) and reduced soil water potential (?5.0 vs. ?0.6 MPa soil water potential) during the dry season. In both forests, dry species showed significantly higher stomatal conductance and lower leaf water potential, than wet species, and in the dry forest, dry species also realized higher drought survival and growth rate than wet species. Dry species are therefore more drought tolerant, and unlike the wet forest species, they achieve a home advantage. Species drought performance in the dry forest relative to the wet forest significantly predicted species position on the rainfall gradient in Ghana, indicating that the ability to grow and survive better in dry forests and during dry seasons may allow species to occur in low rainfall areas. Drought is therefore an important environmental filter that influences forest composition and dynamics. Currently, many tropical forests experience increase in frequency and intensity of droughts, and our results suggest that this may lead to reduction in tree productivity and shifts in species distribution.     

Rainfall and host reproduction regulate population dynamics of a specialist seed predator

1. Mast seeding is a widespread resource pulse caused by synchronized and intermittent production of a large seed crop by plant populations. The effects of masting on wildlife have been well documented in granivorous vertebrates, but less is known about its impact on population dynamics of insects. 2. This study investigated, over 6 years, variation in abundance of a specialist weevil (Curculio elephas) preying on holm oak (Quercus ilex) acorns. 3. An immediate bottom-up effect of seed production on weevil larval abundance was detected, which was driven by an increase in realised fecundity and aggregation at seed-rich trees. Moreover, trees producing on average more and larger acorns sustained larger weevil populations. However, no correlation was found between current and previous year adult abundance, suggesting that C. elephas did not capitalise on the reproductive bottom-up effect. 4. It was rainfall, not masting, that most strongly shaped the temporal variation in insect abundance. Rainfall facilitates emergence after diapause at underground earth cells and was also responsible for among-tree synchronisation in adult weevil population dynamics. 5. In spite of their trophic specialisation, not only food availability, but also weather affects weevil numbers. The present results indicate that moving beyond bottom-up effects is required to better understand complex systems that involve masting plants and insects that consume their seeds.     

Structure of population,grouping patterns and density of forest elephants in north-west Congo

The structure of the population of forest elephants visiting a clearing in north-west Congo was studied over 8 months. Out of 3314 sightings, 629 elephants were identified (including 64%, of adults). The sex ratio was about 1:1. The number of offspring per female was 1.12. Solitary elephants (91.4%, of males) made up 35% of the population. Of females, 93.6% were grouped. Groups (mean size 3.5) included females and offspring (3.4), males and females (5.0), or males only (2.3). The return rate of elephants at the clearing suggested that up to 1900 individuals have visited the clearing. This confirms that elephant densities are especially high in north Congo.