Grandparental effects in marine sticklebacks: transgenerational plasticity across multiple generations

Nongenetic inheritance mechanisms such as transgenerational plasticity (TGP) can buffer populations against rapid environmental change such as ocean warming. Yet, little is known about how long these effects persist and whether they are cumulative over generations. Here, we tested for adaptive TGP in response to simulated ocean warming across parental and grandparental generations of marine sticklebacks. Grandparents were acclimated for two months during reproductive conditioning, whereas parents experienced developmental acclimation, allowing us to compare the fitness consequences of short‐term vs. prolonged exposure to elevated temperature across multiple generations. We found that reproductive output of F1 adults was primarily determined by maternal developmental temperature, but carry‐over effects from grandparental acclimation environments resulted in cumulative negative effects of elevated temperature on hatching success. In very early stages of growth, F2 offspring reached larger sizes in their respective paternal and grandparental environment down the paternal line, suggesting that other factors than just the paternal genome may be transferred between generations. In later growth stages, maternal and maternal granddam environments strongly influenced offspring body size, but in opposing directions, indicating that the mechanism(s) underlying the transfer of environmental information may have differed between acute and developmental acclimation experienced by the two generations. Taken together, our results suggest that the fitness consequences of parental and grandparental TGP are highly context dependent, but will play an important role in mediating some of the impacts of rapid climate change in this system.     

Plant responses to elevated temperatures: a field study on phenological sensitivity and fitness responses to simulated climate warming

Significant changes in plant phenology have been observed in response to increases in mean global temperatures. There are concerns that accelerated phenologies can negatively impact plant populations. However, the fitness consequence of changes in phenology in response to elevated temperature is not well understood, particularly under field conditions. We address this issue by exposing a set of recombinant inbred lines of Arabidopsis thaliana to a simulated global warming treatment in the field. We find that plants exposed to elevated temperatures flower earlier, as predicted by photothermal models. However, contrary to life‐history trade‐off expectations, they also flower at a larger vegetative size, suggesting that warming probably causes acceleration in vegetative development. Although warming increases mean fitness (fruit production) by ca. 25%, there is a significant genotype‐by‐environment interaction. Changes in fitness rank indicate that imminent climate change can cause populations to be maladapted in their new environment, if adaptive evolution is limited. Thus, changes in the genetic composition of populations are likely, depending on the species’ generation time and the speed of temperature change. Interestingly, genotypes that show stronger phenological responses have higher fitness under elevated temperatures, suggesting that phenological sensitivity might be a good indicator of success under elevated temperature at the genotypic level as well as at the species level.     

Identifying potential evolutionary consequences of climate-driven phenological shifts

Climate change is shifting the phenology of many species throughout the world. While the interspecific consequences of these phenological shifts have been well documented, the intraspecific shifts and their resultant evolutionary consequences remain relatively unexplored. Here, we present a conceptual framework and overview of how phenological shifts within species can drive evolutionary change. We suggest that because the impacts of climate change are likely to vary across the range of a species and differentially impact individuals, phenological shifts may often be highly variable both within and among populations. Together these changes have the potential to alter existing patterns of gene flow and influence evolutionary trajectories by increasing phenological isolation and connectivity. Recent research examining the response of species to contemporary climate change suggests that both phenological isolation and connectivity may be likely responses to future climate change. However, recent studies also show mixed results on whether adaptive responses to climate change are likely to occur, as some populations have already shown adaptive responses to changing climate, while others have not despite fitness costs. While predicting the exact consequences of intraspecific phenological shifts may be difficult, identifying the evolutionary implications of these shifts will allow a better understanding of the effects of future climate change on species persistence and adaptation.     

Simulated climate warming decreases fruit number but increases seed mass

Climate warming is changing plant sexual reproduction, having consequences for species distribution and community dynamics. However, the magnitude and direction of plant reproductive efforts (e.g., number of flowers) and success (e.g., number and mass of fruits or seeds) in response to warming have not been well-characterized. Here, we generated a global dataset of simulated warming experiments, consisting of 477 pairwise comparisons for 164 terrestrial species. We found evidence that warming overall decreased fruit number and increased seed mass, but little evidence that warming influenced flower number, fruit mass, or seed number. The warming effects on seed mass were regulated by the pollination type, and insect-pollinated plants exhibited a stronger response to warming than wind-pollinated plants. We found strong evidence that warming increased the mass of seeds for the nondominant species but no evidence of this for the dominant species. There was no evidence that phylogenetic relatedness explained the effects of warming on plant reproductive effort and success. In addition, the effects of warming on flowering onset negatively related to the responses in terms of the number of fruits and seeds to warming, revealing a cascading effect of plant reproductive development. These findings provide the first quantification of the response of terrestrial plant sexual reproduction to warming and suggest that plants may increase their fitness by producing heavier seeds under a warming climate.     

Simulating forest ecosystem response to climate warming incorporating spatial effects in north-eastern China

Aim Predictions of ecosystem responses to climate warming are often made using gap models, which are among the most effective tools for assessing the effects of climate change on forest composition and structure. Gap models do not generally account for broad‐scale effects such as the spatial configuration of the simulated forest ecosystems, disturbance, and seed dispersal, which extend beyond the simulation plots and are important under changing climates. In this study we incorporate the broad‐scale spatial effects (spatial configurations of the simulated forest ecosystems, seed dispersal and fire disturbance) in simulating forest responses to climate warming. We chose the Changbai Natural Reserve in China as our study area. Our aim is to reveal the spatial effects in simulating forest responses to climate warming and make new predictions by incorporating these effects in the Changbai Natural Reserve. Location Changbai Natural Reserve, north‐eastern China. Method We used a coupled modelling approach that links a gap model with a spatially explicit landscape model. In our approach, the responses (establishment) of individual species to climate warming are simulated using a gap model (linkages ) that has been utilized previously for making predictions in this region; and the spatial effects are simulated using a landscape model (LANDIS) that incorporates spatial configurations of the simulated forest ecosystems, seed dispersal and fire disturbance. We used the recent predictions of the Canadian Global Coupled Model (CGCM2) for the Changbai Mountain area (4.6 °C average annual temperature increase and little precipitation change). For the area encompassed by the simulation, we examined four major ecosystems distributed continuously from low to high elevations along the northern slope: hardwood forest, mixed Korean pine hardwood forest, spruce‐fir forest, and sub‐alpine forest. Results The dominant effects of climate warming were evident on forest ecosystems in the low and high elevation areas, but not in the mid‐elevation areas. This suggests that the forest ecosystems near the southern and northern ranges of their distributions will have the strongest response to climate warming. In the mid‐elevation areas, environmental controls exerted the dominant influence on the dynamics of these forests (e.g. spruce‐fir) and their resilience to climate warming was suggested by the fact that the fluctuations of species trajectories for these forests under the warming scenario paralleled those under the current climate scenario. Main conclusions With the spatial effects incorporated, the disappearance of tree species in this region due to the climate warming would not be expected within the 300‐year period covered by the simulation. Neither Korean pine nor spruce‐fir was completely replaced by broadleaf species during the simulation period. Even for the sub‐alpine forest, mountain birch did not become extinct under the climate warming scenario, although its occurrence was greatly reduced. However, the decreasing trends characterizing Korean pine, spruce, and fir indicate that in simulations beyond 300 years these species could eventually be replaced by broadleaf tree species. A complete forest transition would take much longer than the time periods predicted by the gap models.     

Plastic adjustments of biparental care behavior across embryonic development under elevated temperature in a marine ectotherm

Phenotypic plasticity in parental care investment allows organisms to promptly respond to rapid environmental changes by potentially benefiting offspring survival and thus parental fitness. To date, a knowledge gap exists on whether plasticity in parental care behaviors can mediate responses to climate change in marine ectotherms. Here, we assessed the plasticity of parental care investment under elevated temperatures in a gonochoric marine annelid with biparental care, Ophryotrocha labronica, and investigated its role in maintaining the reproductive success of this species in a warming ocean. We measured the time individuals spent carrying out parental care activities across three phases of embryonic development, as well as the hatching success of the offspring as a proxy for reproductive success, at control (24℃) and elevated (27℃) temperature conditions. Under elevated temperature, we observed: (a) a significant decrease in total parental care activity, underpinned by a decreased in male and simultaneous parental care activity, in the late stage of embryonic development; and (b) a reduction in hatching success that was however not significantly related to changes in parental care activity levels. These findings, along with the observed unaltered somatic growth of parents and decreased brood size, suggest that potential cost‐benefit trade‐offs between offspring survival (i.e., immediate fitness) and parents'' somatic condition (i.e., longer‐term fitness potential) may occur under ongoing ocean warming. Finally, our results suggest that plasticity in parental care behavior is a mechanism able to partially mitigate the negative effects of temperature‐dependent impacts.     

Salamander morph frequencies do not evolve as predicted in response to 40 years of climate change

The global climate is changing rapidly, yet biotic responses remain uncertain. Most studies focus on changes in species ranges or plastic responses like phenology, but adaptive evolution could be equally important. Studying evolutionary responses is challenging given limited historical data and a poor understanding of genetically variable traits under selection. We take advantage of a historical dataset to test for an adaptive response to climate change in a widespread, polymorphic amphibian, the eastern red‐backed salamander Plethodon cinereus. We resurveyed color morph frequencies across New England to test for an adaptive shift in response to climate change. We modeled historical and present‐day morph proportions as a function of climate and tested the accuracy of predictions both within and across different time periods. Our models showed moderate accuracy when predicting morph frequencies within time periods, but poor accuracy across time periods. Despite substantial changes in climate and significant relationships between morph frequency and climate variables within periods, we found no evidence for the predicted shift in morph frequencies across New England. The relationship between climate and color morph frequencies is likely more complex than originally suggested, potentially involving the interplay of additional factors such as microclimate variation, land use changes, and frequency‐dependent selection. Model extrapolation and changes in the correlation structure of climate variables also likely contributed to poor predictive ability. Evolution could provide a means to moderate the effects of climate change on many species. However, we often do not understand the direct links between climate variation, traits, and fitness. Therefore, forecasting climate‐mediated evolution remains an ongoing and important challenge for understanding climate change threats to species.     

A potential tool to mitigate the impacts of climate change to the caribbean leatherback sea turtle

It is now well understood that climate change has the potential to dramatically affect biodiversity, with effects on spatio‐temporal distribution patterns, trophic relationships and survivorship. In the marine turtles, sex is determined by incubation temperature, such that warming temperatures could lead to a higher production of female hatchlings. By measuring nest temperature, and using a model to relate the incubation temperature to sex ratio, we estimate that Caribbean Colombian leatherback sea turtles currently produce approximately 92% female hatchlings. We modelled the relationship between incubation, sand and air temperature, and under all future climate change scenarios (0.4–6.0 °C warming over the next 100 years), complete feminization could occur, as soon as the next decade. However, male producing refugia exist in the periphery of smaller nests (0.7 °C cooler at the bottom than at the centre), within beaches (0.3 °C cooler in the vegetation line and inter‐tidal zone) and between beaches (0.4 °C higher on dark beaches), and these natural refugia could be assigned preferential conservation status. However, there exists a need to develop strategies that may ameliorate deleterious effects of climate‐induced temperature changes in the future. We experimentally shaded clutches using screening material, and found that it was effective in reducing nest temperature, producing a higher proportion of male hatchlings, without compromising the fitness or hatching success. Artificial shade in hatcheries is a very useful and simple tool in years or periods of high environmental temperatures. Nevertheless, this is only an emergency response to the severe impacts that will eventually have to be reversed if we are to guarantee the stability of the populations.     

气候变化和林火干扰对大兴安岭林区地上生物量影响的动态模拟

预测森林地上生物量对气候变化和林火干扰的响应是陆地生态系统碳循环研究的重要内容,气温、降水等因素的改变和气候变暖导致林火干扰强度的变化将会影响森林生态系统的碳库动态.东北森林作为我国森林的重要组成部分,对气候变化和林火干扰的响应逐渐显现.本文运用LANDIS PRO模型,模拟气候变化对大兴安岭森林地上生物量的影响,并比较分析了气候变暖对森林地上生物量的直接影响与通过林火干扰强度改变所产生的影响.结果表明: 未来气候变暖和火干扰增强情景下,森林地上生物量增加;当前气候条件和火干扰下,研究区森林地上生物量为(97.14±5.78) t·hm^-2;在B1F2预案下,森林地上生物量均值为(97.93±5.83) t·hm^-2;在A2F3预案下,景观水平第100～150和150～200年模拟时期内的森林地上生物量均值较高,分别为(100.02±3.76)和(110.56±4.08) t·hm^-2.与当前火干扰相比,CF2预案(当前火干扰增加30%)在一定时期使景观水平地上生物量增加(0.56±1.45) t·hm^-2,CF3预案(当前火干扰增加230%)在整个模拟阶段使地上生物量减少(7.39±1.79) t·hm^-2.针叶、阔叶树种对气候变暖的响应存在差异,兴安落叶松和白桦生物量随气候变暖表现为降低趋势,而樟子松、云杉和山杨的地上生物量则随气候变暖表现出不同程度的增加;气候变暖对针阔树种的直接影响具有时滞性,针叶树种响应时间比阔叶树种迟25～50年.研究区森林对高CO₂排放情景下气候变暖和高强度火干扰的共同作用较为敏感,未来将明显改变研究区森林生态系统的树种组成和结构.     

Warming effects on greenhouse gas fluxes in peatlands are modulated by vegetation composition

Understanding the effects of warming on greenhouse gas feedbacks to climate change represents a major global challenge. Most research has focused on direct effects of warming, without considering how concurrent changes in plant communities may alter such effects. Here, we combined vegetation manipulations with warming to investigate their interactive effects on greenhouse gas emissions from peatland. We found that although warming consistently increased respiration, the effect on net ecosystem CO₂ exchange depended on vegetation composition. The greatest increase in CO₂ sink strength after warming was when shrubs were present, and the greatest decrease when graminoids were present. CH₄ was more strongly controlled by vegetation composition than by warming, with largest emissions from graminoid communities. Our results show that plant community composition is a significant modulator of greenhouse gas emissions and their response to warming, and suggest that vegetation change could alter peatland carbon sink strength under future climate change.     

Forecasting ecological and evolutionary strategies to global change: an example from habitat selection by lemmings

Ecologists and evolutionary biologists must develop theories that can predict the consequences of global warming and other impacts on Earth's biota. Theories of adaptive habitat selection are particularly promising because they link distribution and density with fitness. The evolutionarily stable strategy that emerges from adaptive habitat choice is given by the system's habitat isodar, the graph of densities in pairs of habitats such that the expectation of fitness is the same in each. We illustrate how isodars can be converted into adaptive landscapes of habitat selection that display the density‐ and frequency‐dependent fitness of competing strategies of habitat use. The adaptive landscape varies with the abundance of habitats and can thus be used to predict future adaptive distributions of individuals under competing scenarios of habitat change. Application of the theory to three species of Arctic rodents living on Herschel Island in the Beaufort Sea predicts changes in selection gradients as xeric upland increases in frequency with global warming. Selection gradients will become more shallow for brown lemming (Lemmus trimucronatus) and tundra vole (Microtus oeconomus) strategies that preferentially exploit mesic habitat. Climate change will cause selection gradients for the alternative strategy of using mostly xeric habitat to become much steeper. Meanwhile, the adaptive landscape for collared lemmings (Dicrostonyx groenlandicus), which specialize on xeric Dryas‐covered upland, will become increasingly convex. Changes in the adaptive landscapes thus predict expanding niches for Lemmus and Microtus, and a narrower niche for Dicrostonyx. The ability to draw adaptive landscapes from current patterns of distribution represents one of the few methods available to forecast the consequences of climate change on the future distribution and evolution of affected species.     

Degrees of disruption: projected temperature increase has catastrophic consequences for reproduction in a tropical ectotherm

Although climate change models predict relatively modest increases in temperature in the tropics by the end of the century, recent analyses identify tropical ectotherms as the organisms most at risk from climate warming. Because metabolic rate in ectotherms increases exponentially with temperature, even a small rise in temperature poses a physiological threat to tropical ectotherms inhabiting an already hot environment. If correct, the metabolic theory of climate warming has profound implications for global biodiversity, since tropical insects and arachnids constitute the vast majority of animal species. Predicting how climate change will translate into fitness consequences for tropical arthropods requires an understanding of the effects of temperature increase on the entire life history of the species. Here, in a comprehensive case study of the fitness consequences of the projected temperature increase for the tropics, we conducted a split‐brood experiment on the neotropical pseudoscorpion, Cordylochernes scorpioides, in which 792 offspring from 33 females were randomly assigned at birth to control‐ and high‐temperature treatments for rearing through the adult stage. The diurnally varying, control treatment temperature was determined from long‐term, average daily temperature minima and maxima in the pseudoscorpion's native habitat. In the high temperature treatment, increasing temperature by the 3.5 °C predicted for the tropics significantly reduced survival and accelerated development at the cost of reduced adult size and a dramatic decrease in level of sexual dimorphism. The most striking effects, however, involved reproductive traits. Reared at high temperature, males produced 45% as many sperm as control males, and females failed to reproduce. Sequencing of the mitochondrial ND2 gene revealed two highly divergent haplogroups that differed substantially in developmental rate and survivorship but not in reproductive response to high temperature. Our findings suggest that reproduction may be the Achilles’ heel of tropical ectotherms, as climate warming subjects them to an increasingly adverse thermal environment.     

From global change to a butterfly flapping: biophysics and behaviour affect tropical climate change impacts

Difficulty in characterizing the relationship between climatic variability and climate change vulnerability arises when we consider the multiple scales at which this variation occurs, be it temporal (from minute to annual) or spatial (from centimetres to kilometres). We studied populations of a single widely distributed butterfly species, Chlosyne lacinia, to examine the physiological, morphological, thermoregulatory and biophysical underpinnings of adaptation to tropical and temperate climates. Microclimatic and morphological data along with a biophysical model documented the importance of solar radiation in predicting butterfly body temperature. We also integrated the biophysics with a physiologically based insect fitness model to quantify the influence of solar radiation, morphology and behaviour on warming impact projections. While warming is projected to have some detrimental impacts on tropical ectotherms, fitness impacts in this study are not as negative as models that assume body and air temperature equivalence would suggest. We additionally show that behavioural thermoregulation can diminish direct warming impacts, though indirect thermoregulatory consequences could further complicate predictions. With these results, at multiple spatial and temporal scales, we show the importance of biophysics and behaviour for studying biodiversity consequences of global climate change, and stress that tropical climate change impacts are likely to be context-dependent.     

Climate change overruns resilience conferred by temperature‐dependent sex determination in sea turtles and threatens their survival

Temperature‐dependent sex determination (TSD) is the predominant form of environmental sex determination (ESD) in reptiles, but the adaptive significance of TSD in this group remains unclear. Additionally, the viability of species with TSD may be compromised as climate gets warmer. We simulated population responses in a turtle with TSD to increasing nest temperatures and compared the results to those of a virtual population with genotypic sex determination (GSD) and fixed sex ratios. Then, we assessed the effectiveness of TSD as a mechanism to maintain populations under climate change scenarios. TSD populations were more resilient to increased nest temperatures and mitigated the negative effects of high temperatures by increasing production of female offspring and therefore, future fecundity. That buffered the negative effect of temperature on the population growth. TSD provides an evolutionary advantage to sea turtles. However, this mechanism was only effective over a range of temperatures and will become inefficient as temperatures rise to levels projected by current climate change models. Projected global warming threatens survival of sea turtles, and the IPCC high gas concentration scenario may result in extirpation of the studied population in 50 years.     

Phenology in a warming world: differences between native and non‐native plant species

Phenology is a harbinger of climate change, with many species advancing flowering in response to rising temperatures. However, there is tremendous variation among species in phenological response to warming, and any phenological differences between native and non‐native species may influence invasion outcomes under global warming. We simulated global warming in the field and found that non‐native species flowered earlier and were more phenologically plastic to temperature than natives, which did not accelerate flowering in response to warming. Non‐native species' flowering also became more synchronous with other community members under warming. Earlier flowering was associated with greater geographic spread of non‐native species, implicating phenology as a potential trait associated with the successful establishment of non‐native species across large geographic regions. Such phenological differences in both timing and plasticity between native and non‐natives are hypothesised to promote invasion success and population persistence, potentially benefiting non‐native over native species under climate change.     

空间异质性对样地数据空间外推的影响

应用模型结合的方法模拟了3个空间异质性等级预案下反应变量(气候变化下景观水平的树种分布面积)的变化情况,并分析模拟结果在预案之间的差异性,探讨了环境空间异质性对样地观测到的树种对气候变化响应向更大空间尺度外推的影响.结果表明：空间异质性在一般情况下对样地数据向土地类型尺度外推没有影响,而对样地尺度外推到海拔带尺度的影响则有较复杂的情况.对于对气候变化不敏感的树种以及非地带性树种,空间异质性对样地数据向海拔带尺度外推没有影响;对于大多数对气候变化敏感的地带性树种而言,空间异质性对样地数据向海拔带尺度外推则有影响.     

喜旱莲子草在青藏高原对模拟增温的可塑性: 引入地和原产地种群的比较

气候变暖背景下植物可通过关键性状的表型可塑性来适应环境温度的增加。表型可塑性增强进化假说预测定植到新环境中的入侵植物种群具有演化出更强表型可塑性的潜力。此前对可塑性进化的研究涵盖了外来植物性状对水分条件、光照变化、土壤养分、邻体根系以及天敌防御等的响应, 而较少有研究关注增温条件下植物重要性状的可塑性进化。已有的部分研究多集中在温带和热带地区, 而较少关注入侵植物在高寒地区对增温的响应; 且研究多集中在植物生长相关性状, 较少关注功能性状和防御性状。本研究采用同质园实验比较了喜旱莲子草6个引入地(中国)种群和6个原产地(阿根廷)种群, 在西藏拉萨模拟全天增温2℃处理下的适合度性状、功能性状和防御性状的响应差异。结果表明: (1)高寒地区模拟全天增温显著提高了喜旱莲子草总生物量(+36.4%)、地上生物量(+34.5%)、贮藏根生物量(+51.4%)和毛根生物量(+33.6%), 降低了分枝强度(-19.8%)和比茎长(-30.2%); (2)模拟全天增温使引入地种群的比叶面积和黄酮含量增加, 而原产地种群则相反。这些结果表明高寒地区全天增温2℃对喜旱莲子草可能是一种有利条件。引入地种群的适合度性状对模拟全天增温2℃的响应比原产地种群更强, 而其光能利用相关性状和防御性状的响应可能提升了其在高寒地区的适合度。因此, 在未来全球气候变暖的背景下, 高寒地区温度升高可能更有利于喜旱莲子草引入地种群的定植和扩散。     

温度升高对昆虫发生发展的影响

全世界地表平均温度在上个世纪增加了0.74℃,并且在未来还会持续增加。在过去的20年,气候变暖对生物系统的影响吸引了大量的研究。本文综述了由温度升高为主要驱动因子的气候变化对昆虫适合度的影响,主要从昆虫越冬存活率、化性(世代数)、扩散迁移、发生分布、物候关系5个方面阐述气候变暖对昆虫发生发展的作用,认为未来应长期进行昆虫种群动态监测预警,更关注气候变暖下植物-害虫-天敌互作关系的研究。     

Climate warming is associated with smaller body size and shorter lifespans in moose near their southern range limit

Despite the importance of body size for individual fitness, population dynamics and community dynamics, the influence of climate change on growth and body size is inadequately understood, particularly for long‐lived vertebrates. Although temporal trends in body size have been documented, it remains unclear whether these changes represent the adverse impact of climate change (environmental stress constraining phenotypes) or its mitigation (via phenotypic plasticity or evolution). Concerns have also been raised about whether climate change is indeed the causal agent of these phenotypic shifts, given the length of time‐series analysed and that studies often do not evaluate – and thereby sufficiently rule out – other potential causes. Here, we evaluate evidence for climate‐related changes in adult body size (indexed by skull size) over a 4–decade period for a population of moose (Alces alces) near the southern limit of their range whilst also considering changes in density, predation, and human activities. In particular, we document: (i) a trend of increasing winter temperatures and concurrent decline in skull size (decline of 19% for males and 13% for females) and (ii) evidence of a negative relationship between skull size and winter temperatures during the first year of life. These patterns could be plausibly interpreted as an adaptive phenotypic response to climate warming given that latitudinal/temperature clines are often accepted as evidence of adaptation to local climate. However, we also observed: (iii) that moose with smaller skulls had shorter lifespans, (iv) a reduction in lifespan over the 4‐decade study period, and (v) a negative relationship between lifespan and winter temperatures during the first year of life. Those observations indicate that this phenotypic change is not an adaptive response to climate change. However, this decline in lifespan was not accompanied by an obvious change in population dynamics, suggesting that climate change may affect population dynamics and life‐histories differently.