Vulnerability of carbon storage in North American boreal forests to wildfires during the 21st century

The boreal forest contains large reserves of carbon. Across this region, wildfires influence the temporal and spatial dynamics of carbon storage. In this study, we estimate fire emissions and changes in carbon storage for boreal North America over the 21st century. We use a gridded data set developed with a multivariate adaptive regression spline approach to determine how area burned varies each year with changing climatic and fuel moisture conditions. We apply the process‐based Terrestrial Ecosystem Model to evaluate the role of future fire on the carbon dynamics of boreal North America in the context of changing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration and climate in the A2 and B2 emissions scenarios of the CGCM2 global climate model. Relative to the last decade of the 20th century, decadal total carbon emissions from fire increase by 2.5–4.4 times by 2091–2100, depending on the climate scenario and assumptions about CO₂ fertilization. Larger fire emissions occur with warmer climates or if CO₂ fertilization is assumed to occur. Despite the increases in fire emissions, our simulations indicate that boreal North America will be a carbon sink over the 21st century if CO₂ fertilization is assumed to occur in the future. In contrast, simulations excluding CO₂ fertilization over the same period indicate that the region will change to a carbon source to the atmosphere, with the source being 2.1 times greater under the warmer A2 scenario than the B2 scenario. To improve estimates of wildfire on terrestrial carbon dynamics in boreal North America, future studies should incorporate the role of dynamic vegetation to represent more accurately post‐fire successional processes, incorporate fire severity parameters that change in time and space, account for human influences through increased fire suppression, and integrate the role of other disturbances and their interactions with future fire regime.     

Rapid carbon loss and slow recovery following permafrost thaw in boreal peatlands

Permafrost peatlands store one‐third of the total carbon (C) in the atmosphere and are increasingly vulnerable to thaw as high‐latitude temperatures warm. Large uncertainties remain about C dynamics following permafrost thaw in boreal peatlands. We used a chronosequence approach to measure C stocks in forested permafrost plateaus (forest) and thawed permafrost bogs, ranging in thaw age from young (<10 years) to old (>100 years) from two interior Alaska chronosequences. Permafrost originally aggraded simultaneously with peat accumulation (syngenetic permafrost) at both sites. We found that upon thaw, C loss of the forest peat C is equivalent to ~30% of the initial forest C stock and is directly proportional to the prethaw C stocks. Our model results indicate that permafrost thaw turned these peatlands into net C sources to the atmosphere for a decade following thaw, after which post‐thaw bog peat accumulation returned sites to net C sinks. It can take multiple centuries to millennia for a site to recover its prethaw C stocks; the amount of time needed for them to regain their prethaw C stocks is governed by the amount of C that accumulated prior to thaw. Consequently, these findings show that older peatlands will take longer to recover prethaw C stocks, whereas younger peatlands will exceed prethaw stocks in a matter of centuries. We conclude that the loss of sporadic and discontinuous permafrost by 2100 could result in a loss of up to 24 Pg of deep C from permafrost peatlands.     

Comparison of carbon dioxide fluxes over three boreal black spruce forests in Canada

Although mature black spruce forests are a dominant cover type in the boreal forest of North America, it is not clear how their carbon (C) budgets vary across the continent. The installation of an eddy covariance flux tower on an Old Black Spruce (OBS) site in eastern Canada (EOBS, Québec) provided a first opportunity to compare and contrast its annual (2004) and seasonal C exchange with two other pre-existing OBS flux sites from different climatic regions located in Saskatchewan [Southern OBS (SOBS)] and Manitoba [Northern OBS (NOBS)]. Although there was a relatively uniform seasonal pattern of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) among sites, EOBS had a lower total annual NEP than the other two sites. This was primarily because warmer soil under a thicker snowpack at EOBS appeared to increase winter C losses and low light suppressed both NEP and gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) in June. Across sites, greater total annual GEP and ecosystem respiration ( R ) were associated with greater mean annual air temperatures and an earlier beginning of the growing season. Also, GEP at all three sites showed a stronger relationship with air temperature in spring and early summer compared with later in the growing season, highlighting the importance of springtime conditions to the C budget of these boreal ecosystems. The three sites had different parameter estimates describing the responses of R and GEP at the half hour time scale to near surface temperature and light, respectively. On the other hand, the responses of both R and GEP to temperature at the monthly scale did not differ among sites. These results suggest that a general parameterization could be sufficient at coarse time resolutions to model the response of C exchange to environmental factors of mature black spruce forests from different climatic regions.     

Drivers of postfire soil organic carbon accumulation in the boreal forest

The accumulation of soil carbon (C) is regulated by a complex interplay between abiotic and biotic factors. Our study aimed to identify the main drivers of soil C accumulation in the boreal forest of eastern North America. Ecosystem C pools were measured in 72 sites of fire origin that burned 2–314 years ago over a vast region with a range of ? mean annual temperature of 3°C and one of ? 500 mm total precipitation. We used a set of multivariate a priori causal hypotheses to test the influence of time since fire (TSF), climate, soil physico‐chemistry and bryophyte dominance on forest soil organic C accumulation. Integrating the direct and indirect effects among abiotic and biotic variables explained as much as 50% of the full model variability. The main direct drivers of soil C stocks were: TSF >bryophyte dominance of the FH layer and metal oxide content >pH of the mineral soil. Only climate parameters related to water availability contributed significantly to explaining soil C stock variation. Importantly, climate was found to affect FH layer and mineral soil C stocks indirectly through its effects on bryophyte dominance and organo‐metal complexation, respectively. Soil texture had no influence on soil C stocks. Soil C stocks increased both in the FH layer and mineral soil with TSF and this effect was linked to a decrease in pH with TSF in mineral soil. TSF thus appears to be an important factor of soil development and of C sequestration in mineral soil through its influence on soil chemistry. Overall, this work highlights that integrating the complex interplay between the main drivers of soil C stocks into mechanistic models of C dynamics could improve our ability to assess C stocks and better anticipate the response of the boreal forest to global change.     

A long-term record of carbon exchange in a boreal black spruce forest: means, responses to interannual variability, and decadal trends

We present a decadal (1994–2004) record of carbon dioxide flux in a 160‐year‐old black spruce forest/veneer bog complex in central Manitoba, Canada. The ecosystem shifted from a source (+41 g C m⁻², 1995) to a sink (−21 g C m⁻², 2004) of CO₂ over the decade, with an average net carbon balance near zero. Annual mean temperatures increased 1–2° during the period, consistent with the decadal trend across the North American boreal biome. We found that ecosystem carbon exchange responded strongly to air temperature, moisture status, potential evapotranspiration, and summertime solar radiation. The seasonal cycle of ecosystem respiration significantly lagged that of photosynthesis, limited by the rate of soil thaw and the slow drainage of the soil column. Factors acting over long time scales, especially water table depth, strongly influenced the carbon budget on annual time scales. Net uptake was enhanced and respiration inhibited by multiple years of rainfall in excess of evaporative demand. Contrary to expectations, we observed no correlation between longer growing seasons and net uptake, possibly because of offsetting increases in ecosystem respiration. The results indicate that the interactions between soil thaw and water table depth provide critical controls on carbon exchange in boreal forests underlain by peat, on seasonal to decadal time scales, and these factors must be simulated in terrestrial biosphere models to predict response of these regions to future climate.     

Spatial and temporal variations in boreal forest fire frequency in northern Alberta

Abstract. Spatial and temporal variations in fire frequency in the boreal forest of Wood Buffalo National Park (WBNP) were assessed using forest stand age, fire scar and historical data. I test the hypotheses that (1) fire frequency is higher in jack pine forests and aspen forests than in black spruce forests and white spruce forests, (2) these variations in fire frequency can be related to the mean waterbreak distance (MWD) around a site and (3) fire frequency has changed over the past 300 years. The fire cycles (the time required to burn an area equal in size to the entire study area) in jack pine forests (39 years) and in aspen forests (39 years) were significantly shorter than those in black spruce forests (78 years) and in white spruce forests (96 years). The length of the fire cycle varies inversely with the MWD around a site, and the MWD was significantly higher in jack pine and aspen forests than in black or white spruce forests. It is suggested that covariations between soil type and the MWD influence, respectively, variations in forest dominant and fire frequency. A change in fire frequency at 1860 was apparent in the fire history for all of WBNP, the black spruce dominated stands, and the near and medium MWD classes. The fire cycle estimates for these classes were all significantly shorter during the period 1750 to 1859 (fire cycles = 25–49 years) than they were in the period 1860 to 1989 (fire cycles = 59–89 years). The possible roles of changes in climate and aboriginal burning practices in causing the temporal change in fire frequency are discussed.     

Decreased carbon accumulation feedback driven by climate‐induced drying of two southern boreal bogs over recent centuries

Northern boreal peatlands are important ecosystems in modulating global biogeochemical cycles, yet their biological communities and related carbon dynamics are highly sensitive to changes in climate. Despite this, the strength and recent direction of these feedbacks are still unclear. The response of boreal peatlands to climate warming has received relatively little attention compared with other northern peatland types, despite forming a large northern hemisphere‐wide ecosystem. Here, we studied the response of two ombrotrophic boreal peatlands to climate variability over the last c. 200 years for which local meteorological data are available. We used remains from plants and testate amoebae to study historical changes in peatland biological communities. These data were supplemented by peat property (bulk density, carbon and nitrogen content), ¹⁴C, ²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs analyses and were used to infer changes in peatland hydrology and carbon dynamics. In total, six peat cores, three per study site, were studied that represent different microhabitats: low hummock (LH), high lawn and low lawn. The data show a consistent drying trend over recent centuries, represented mainly as a change from wet habitat Sphagnum spp. to dry habitat S. fuscum. Summer temperature and precipitation appeared to be important drivers shaping peatland community and surface moisture conditions. Data from the driest microhabitat studied, LH, revealed a clear and strong negative linear correlation (R² = .5031; p < .001) between carbon accumulation rate and peat surface moisture conditions: under dry conditions, less carbon was accumulated. This suggests that at the dry end of the moisture gradient, availability of water regulates carbon accumulation. It can be further linked to the decreased abundance of mixotrophic testate amoebae under drier conditions (R² = .4207; p < .001). Our study implies that if effective precipitation decreases in the future, the carbon uptake capacity of boreal bogs may be threatened.     

Landscape-variability of the carbon balance across managed boreal forests

Boreal forests are important global carbon (C) sinks and, therefore, considered as a key element in climate change mitigation policies. However, their actual C sink strength is uncertain and under debate, particularly for the actively managed forests in the boreal regions of Fennoscandia. In this study, we use an extensive set of biometric- and chamber-based C flux data collected in 50 forest stands (ranging from 5 to 211 years) over 3 years (2016–2018) with the aim to explore the variations of the annual net ecosystem production (NEP; i.e., the ecosystem C balance) across a 68 km² managed boreal forest landscape in northern Sweden. Our results demonstrate that net primary production rather than heterotrophic respiration regulated the spatio-temporal variations of NEP across the heterogeneous mosaic of the managed boreal forest landscape. We further find divergent successional patterns of NEP in our managed forests relative to naturally regenerating boreal forests, including (i) a fast recovery of the C sink function within the first decade after harvest due to the rapid establishment of a productive understory layer and (ii) a sustained C sink in old stands (131–211 years). We estimate that the rotation period for optimum C sequestration extends to 138 years, which over multiple rotations results in a long-term C sequestration rate of 86.5 t C ha⁻¹ per rotation. Our study highlights the potential of forest management to maximize C sequestration of boreal forest landscapes and associate climate change mitigation effects by developing strategies that optimize tree biomass production rather than heterotrophic soil C emissions.     

Stable carbon isotope analysis reveals widespread drought stress in boreal black spruce forests

Unprecedented rates of climate warming over the past century have resulted in increased forest stress and mortality worldwide. Decreased tree growth in association with increasing temperatures is generally accepted as a signal of temperature‐induced drought stress. However, variations in tree growth alone do not reveal the physiological mechanisms behind recent changes in tree growth. Examining stable carbon isotope composition of tree rings in addition to tree growth can provide a secondary line of evidence for physiological drought stress. In this study, we examined patterns of black spruce growth and carbon isotopic composition in tree rings in response to climate warming and drying in the boreal forest of interior Alaska. We examined trees at three nested scales: landscape, toposequence, and a subsample of trees within the toposequence. At each scale, we studied the potential effects of differences in microclimate and moisture availability by sampling on northern and southern aspects. We found that black spruce radial growth responded negatively to monthly metrics of temperature at all examined scales, and we examined ?¹³C responses on a subsample of trees as representative of the wider region. The negative ?¹³C responses to temperature reveal that black spruce trees are experiencing moisture stress on both northern and southern aspects. Contrary to our expectations, ?¹³C from trees on the northern aspect exhibited the strongest drought signal. Our results highlight the prominence of drought stress in the boreal forest of interior Alaska. We conclude that if temperatures continue to warm, we can expect drought‐induced productivity declines across large regions of the boreal forest, even for trees located in cool and moist landscape positions.     

Spatially explicit fire-climate history of the boreal forest-tundra (Eastern Canada) over the last 2000 years

Across the boreal forest, fire is the main disturbance factor and driver of ecosystem changes. In this study, we reconstructed a long-term, spatially explicit fire history of a forest-tundra region in northeastern Canada. We hypothesized that current occupation of similar topographic and edaphic sites by tundra and forest was the consequence of cumulative regression with time of forest cover due to compounding fire and climate disturbances. All fires were mapped and dated per 100 year intervals over the last 2,000 years using several fire dating techniques. Past fire occurrences and post-fire regeneration at the northern forest limit indicate 70% reduction of forest cover since 1800 yr BP and nearly complete cessation of forest regeneration since 900 yr BP. Regression of forest cover was particularly important between 1500s-1700s and possibly since 900 yr BP. Although fire frequency was very low over the last 100 years, each fire event was followed by drastic removal of spruce cover. Contrary to widespread belief of northward boreal forest expansion due to recent warming, lack of post-fire recovery during the last centuries, in comparison with active tree regeneration more than 1,000 years ago, indicates that the current climate does not favour such expansion.     

Origin of the lichen–spruce woodland in the closed-crown forest zone of eastern Canada

Aim We investigate the timing and factors responsible for the transformation of closed‐crown forests into lichen–spruce woodlands. Location The study area extends between 70° and 72° W in the closed‐crown forest zone from its southern limit near 47°30′ N to its northern limit at the contact with the lichen–spruce woodland zone around 52°10′ N. A total of 24 lichen–spruce woodlands were selected. Methods Radiocarbon dating of charcoals at mineral soil contact and within the organic horizons allowed the principal factors causing the degradation of the closed‐crown forest to be identified, i.e. light fires, successive fires and the occurrence of a spruce budworm epidemic followed by a fire. Results Charcoals dated in the organic horizon were less than 200 years old, suggesting a recent transformation of the closed‐crown forest following surface fires. Before their transformation into lichen–spruce woodlands, stands were occupied by old, dense forests that originated from fires dating back to 1000 yr bp . The radiocarbon dating of charcoals in the organic horizon indicated that several stands burned twice in less than 50 years, while others burned shortly after a spruce budworm epidemic. Light fires are frequent within the lichen–spruce woodlands according to multiple charcoal layers found within the organic matter horizon. Main conclusions While closed‐crown forests are predicted to expand under climate warming, compound disturbances diminish the natural regeneration of the closed‐crown forests in the south and favour the expansion of lichen–spruce woodlands. As black spruce germinates on mineral soils, surface fires accentuate the expansion of the lichen–spruce woodlands southward. Under global warming, warmer springs will lead to earlier low‐intensity fires that do not remove as much organic matter, and hence prevent conditions suitable for black spruce regeneration. Also, spruce budworm reduces seed production for a certain time. The occurrence of fire during this period is critical for regeneration of black spruce.     

Broadleaf tree phenology and springtime wildfire occurrence in boreal Canada

Although broadleaf tree species of the boreal biome have a lower flammability compared to conifers, there is a period following snow melt and prior to leaf flush (i.e., greenup), termed the “spring window” by fire managers, when these forests are relatively conducive to wildfire ignition and spread. The goal of this study was to characterize the duration, timing, and fire proneness of the spring window across boreal Canada and assess the link between these phenological variables and the incidence of springtime wildfires. We used remotely sensed snow cover and greenup data to identify the annual spring window for five boreal ecozones from 2001 to 2021 and then compared seasonality of wildfire starts (by cause) and fire-conducive weather in relation to this window, averaged over the 21-year period. We conducted a path analysis to concomitantly evaluate the influence of the spring window's duration, the timing of greenup, and fire-conducive weather on the annual number and the seasonality of spring wildfires. Results show that the characteristics of spring windows vary substantially from year to year and among geographic zones, with the interior west of Canada having the longest and most fire-conducive spread window and, accordingly, the greatest springtime wildfire activity. We also provide support for the belief that springtime weather generally promotes wind-driven, rather than drought-driven wildfires. The path analyses show idiosyncratic behavior among ecozones, but, in general, the seasonality of the wildfire season is mainly driven by the timing of the greenup, whereas the number of spring wildfires mostly responds to the duration of the spring window and the frequency of fire-conducive weather. The results of this study allows us to better understand and anticipate the biome-wide changes projected for the northern forests of North America.     

Divergent Pathways of Successional Recovery for In Situ Oil Sands Exploration Drilling Pads on Wooded Moderate‐Rich Fens in Alberta,Canada

Peatlands in northern Alberta, Canada, are being rapidly impacted by oil sands activities, with potentially long‐term consequences for their recovery. In situ oil sands extraction requires exploration of oil resources on a dense network of drilling pads across the landscape. This study examined the recovery of wooded moderate‐rich (WMR) fens 10 years after abandonment of these sites with minimal restorative measures. Bryophyte and vascular plant diversity, site microtopography, and water chemistry were assessed on drilling pads and in adjacent areas of undisturbed reference habitat. WMR fens affected by drilling activities were divided a priori into two groups based on strongly divergent trends in their successional development. One group represented the majority of WMR fens observed on the land base; at these sites hummock‐forming mosses including minerotrophic Sphagnum species were infrequent and tree recruitment was almost absent. The other group was dominated by Sphagnum species, had Picea mariana and Larix laricina recruitment, and appeared to recover more quickly. Both groups had high abundance of wetland sedges, notably Carex aquatilis. Further, drilling pads belonging to the first group had a high water table, limited elevated microsites, and had surface flooding over a portion of the growing season, in contrast to Sphagnum‐dominated sites. Development of the aquatic, bryophyte‐poor wetland type is comparable to early stages of wetland succession and these systems will recover relatively slowly, likely from decades to more than a century. Restoring part of the vertical distribution of microhabitats before abandonment of these pads could stimulate the successional recovery of vegetation.     

Stimulation of both photosynthesis and respiration in response to warmer and drier conditions in a boreal peatland ecosystem

Peatland ecosystems have been consistent carbon (C) sinks for millennia, but it has been predicted that exposure to warmer temperatures and drier conditions associated with climate change will shift the balance between ecosystem photosynthesis and respiration providing a positive feedback to atmospheric CO₂ concentration. Our main objective was to determine the sensitivity of ecosystem photosynthesis, respiration and net ecosystem production (NEP) measured by eddy covariance, to variation in temperature and water table depth associated with interannual shifts in weather during 2004–2009. Our study was conducted in a moderately rich treed fen, the most abundant peatland type in western Canada, in a region (northern Alberta) where peatland ecosystems are a significant landscape component. During the study, the average growing season (May–October) water depth declined approximately 38 cm, and temperature [expressed as cumulative growing degree days (GDD, March–October)] varied approximately 370 GDD. Contrary to previous predictions, both ecosystem photosynthesis and respiration showed similar increases in response to warmer and drier conditions. The ecosystem remained a strong net sink for CO₂ with an average NEP (± SD) of 189 ± 47 g C m^?2 yr^?1. The current net CO₂ uptake rates were much higher than C accumulation in peat determined from analyses of the relationship between peat age and cumulative C stock. The balance between C addition to, and total loss from, the top 0–30 cm depth (peat age range 0–70 years) of shallow peat cores averaged 43 ± 12 g C m^?2 yr^?1. The apparent long‐term average rate of net C accumulation in basal peat samples was 19–24 g C m^?2 yr^?1. The difference between current rates of net C uptake and historical rates of peat accumulation is likely a result of vegetation succession and recent increases in tree establishment and productivity.     

Net primary production and net ecosystem production of a boreal black spruce wildfire chronosequence

Net primary production (NPP) was measured in seven black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP)‐dominated sites comprising a boreal forest chronosequence near Thompson, Man., Canada. The sites burned between 1998 and 1850, and each contained separate well‐ and poorly drained stands. All components of NPP were measured, most for 3 consecutive years. Total NPP was low (50–100 g C m^?2 yr^?1) immediately after fire, highest 12–20 years after fire (332 and 521 g C m^?2 yr^?1 in the dry and wet stands, respectively) but 50% lower than this in the oldest stands. Tree NPP was highest 37 years after fire but 16–39% lower in older stands, and was dominated by deciduous seedlings in the young stands and by black spruce trees (>85%) in the older stands. The chronosequence was unreplicated but these results were consistent with 14 secondary sites sampled across the landscape. Bryophytes comprised a large percentage of aboveground NPP in the poorly drained stands, while belowground NPP was 0–40% of total NPP. Interannual NPP variability was greater in the youngest stands, the poorly drained stands, and for understory and detritus production. Net ecosystem production (NEP), calculated using heterotrophic soil and woody debris respiration data from previous studies in this chronosequence, implied that the youngest stands were moderate C sources (roughly, 100 g C m^?2 yr^?1), the middle‐aged stands relatively strong sinks (100–300 g C m^?2 yr^?1), and the oldest stands about neutral with respect to the atmosphere. The ecosystem approach employed in this study provided realistic estimates of chronosequence NPP and NEP, demonstrated the profound impact of wildfire on forest–atmosphere C exchange, and emphasized the need to account for soil drainage, bryophyte production, and species succession when modeling boreal forest C fluxes.     

Changing sources of soil respiration with time since fire in a boreal forest

Radiocarbon signatures (Δ¹⁴C) of carbon dioxide (CO₂) provide a measure of the age of C being decomposed by microbes or respired by living plants. Over a 2‐year period, we measured Δ¹⁴C of soil respiration and soil CO₂ in boreal forest sites in Canada, which varied primarily in the amount of time since the last stand‐replacing fire. Comparing bulk respiration Δ¹⁴C with Δ¹⁴C of CO₂ evolved in incubations of heterotrophic (decomposing organic horizons) and autotrophic (root and moss) components allowed us to estimate the relative contributions of O horizon decomposition vs. plant sources. Although soil respiration fluxes did not vary greatly, differences in Δ¹⁴C of respired CO₂ indicated marked variation in respiration sources in space and time. The ¹⁴C signature of respired CO₂ respired from O horizon decomposition depended on the age of C substrates. These varied with time since fire, but consistently had Δ¹⁴C greater (averaging ～120‰) than autotrophic respiration. The Δ¹⁴C of autotrophically respired CO₂ in young stands equaled those expected for recent photosynthetic products (70‰ in 2003, 64‰ in 2004). CO₂ respired by black spruce roots in stands >40 years old had Δ¹⁴C up to 30‰ higher than recent photosynthates, indicating a significant contribution of C stored at least several years in plants. Decomposition of O horizon organic matter made up 20% or less of soil respiration in the younger (<40 years since fire) stands, increasing to ～50% in mature stands. This is a minimum for total heterotrophic contribution, since mineral soil CO₂ had Δ¹⁴C close to or less than those we have assigned to autotrophic respiration. Decomposition of old organic matter in mineral soils clearly contributed to soil respiration in younger stands in 2003, a very dry year, when Δ¹⁴C of soil respiration in younger successional stands dropped below those of the atmospheric CO₂.     

Postfire response of North American boreal forest net primary productivity analyzed with satellite observations

Fire is a major disturbance in the boreal forest, and has been shown to release significant amounts of carbon (C) to the atmosphere through combustion. However, less is known about the effects on ecosystems following fire, which include reduced productivity and changes in decomposition in the decade immediately following the disturbance. In this study, we assessed the impact of fire on net primary productivity (NPP) in the North American boreal forest using a 17‐year record of satellite NDVI observations at 8‐ km spatial resolution together with a light‐use efficiency model. We identified 61 fire scars in the satellite observations using digitized fire burn perimeters from a database of large fires. We studied the postfire response of NPP by analyzing the most impacted pixel within each burned area. NPP decreased in the year following the fire by 60–260 g C m^?2 yr^?1 (30–80%). By comparing pre‐ and postfire observations, we estimated a mean NPP recovery period for boreal forests of about 9 years, with substantial variability among fires. We incorporated this behavior into a carbon cycle model simulation to demonstrate these effects on net ecosystem production. The disturbance resulted in a release of C to the atmosphere during the first 8 years, followed by a small, but long‐lived, sink lasting 150 years. Postfire net emissions were three times as large as from a model run without changing NPP. However, only small differences in the C cycle occurred between runs after 8 years due to the rapid recovery of NPP. We conclude by discussing the effects of fire on the long‐term continental trends in satellite NDVI observed across boreal North America during the 1980s and 1990s.     

A synthesis: The role of nutrients as constraints on carbon balances in boreal and arctic regions

As in many ecosystems, carbon (C) cycling in arctic and boreal regions is tightly linked to the cycling of nutrients: nutrients (particularly nitrogen) are mineralized through the process of organic matter decomposition (C mineralization), and nutrient availability strongly constrains ecosystem C gain through primary production. This link between C and nutrient cycles has implications for how northern systems will respond to future climate warming and whether feedbacks to rising concentrations of atmospheric CO₂ from these regions will be positive or negative. Warming is expected to cause a substantial release of C to the atmosphere because of increased decomposition of the large amounts of organic C present in high-latitude soils (a positive feedback to climate warming). However, increased nutrient mineralization associated with this decomposition is expected to stimulate primary production and ecosystem C gain, offsetting or even exceeding C lost through decomposition (a negative feedback to climate warming). Increased primary production with warming is consistent with results of numerous experiments showing increased plant growth with nutrient enrichment. Here we examine key assumptions behind this scenario: (1) temperature is a primary control of decomposition in northern regions, (2) increased decomposition and associated nutrient release are tightly coupled to plant nutrient uptake, and (3) short-term manipulations of temperature and nutrient availability accurately predict long-term responses to climate change.     

Effect of ecosystem warming on boreal black spruce bud burst and shoot growth

The boreal forest is predicted to experience the greatest warming of any forest biome during the next 50–100 years, but the effects of warming on vegetation phenology are not well known. The objectives of this study were to (1) examine the effects of whole ecosystem warming on bud burst and annual shoot growth of black spruce trees in northern Manitoba, Canada and (2) correlate bud burst to cumulative degree-days (CDD). The experimental design was a complete randomized block design that consisted of four replicated blocks. Each replicate block contained four treatments: soil warming only (heated outside, HO), soil and air warming (heated inside, HI), control outside (no chamber, no heating, CO), and inside a chamber maintained at ambient conditions (no soil or air warming, control inside, CI). Bud burst was measured during the first and second years of the experiment, starting in 2004, and annual shoot growth was measured for the first 3 years (2004–2006) of the study. On average, shoot bud burst occurred 11 and 9 days earlier in 2004 and 2005, respectively, for HI than for other treatments. However, mean CDD required for bud burst for HI was within the standard deviation of CO for both years. In year 1 of the treatments, shoot bud burst occurred earlier for HI than other treatments (CI, CO, HO), but final shoot length of HI trees was less than in CO trees. In the second year of warming, final shoot length was not different for HI than CO. By the third year of warming final shoot length was significantly greater for HI than all other treatments. Empirical results from this study suggest that soil and air warming causes an earlier bud burst for all years of observation and greater shoot lengths by the third season of warming. A longer growing season and greater annual shoot growth should increase carbon uptake by boreal black spruce trees in a warmer climate.