共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
Christine N. Meynard Pierre‐Emmanuel Gay Michel Lecoq Antoine Foucart Cyril Piou Marie‐Pierre Chapuis 《Global Change Biology》2017,23(11):4739-4749
The desert locust is an agricultural pest that is able to switch from a harmless solitarious stage, during recession periods, to swarms of gregarious individuals that disperse long distances and affect areas from western Africa to India during outbreak periods. Large outbreaks have been recorded through centuries, and the Food and Agriculture Organization keeps a long‐term, large‐scale monitoring survey database in the area. However, there is also a much less known subspecies that occupies a limited area in Southern Africa. We used large‐scale climatic and occurrence data of the solitarious phase of each subspecies during recession periods to understand whether both subspecies climatic niches differ from each other, what is the current potential geographical distribution of each subspecies, and how climate change is likely to shift their potential distribution with respect to current conditions. We evaluated whether subspecies are significantly specialized along available climate gradients by using null models of background climatic differences within and between southern and northern ranges and applying niche similarity and niche equivalency tests. The results point to climatic niche conservatism between the two clades. We complemented this analysis with species distribution modeling to characterize current solitarious distributions and forecast potential recession range shifts under two extreme climate change scenarios at the 2050 and 2090 time horizon. Projections suggest that, at a global scale, the northern clade could contract its solitarious recession range, while the southern clade is likely to expand its recession range. However, local expansions were also predicted in the northern clade, in particular in southern and northern margins of the current geographical distribution. In conclusion, monitoring and management practices should remain in place in northern Africa, while in Southern Africa the potential for the subspecies to pose a threat in the future should be investigated more closely. 相似文献
2.
3.
Zheng Han Lishi Zhang Yunlei Jiang Haitao Wang Frdric Jiguet 《Diversity & distributions》2020,26(7):843-852
4.
5.
Alexander Jueterbock Lennert Tyberghein Heroen Verbruggen James A. Coyer Jeanine L. Olsen Galice Hoarau 《Ecology and evolution》2013,3(5):1356-1373
The North-Atlantic has warmed faster than all other ocean basins and climate change scenarios predict sea surface temperature isotherms to shift up to 600 km northwards by the end of the 21st century. The pole-ward shift has already begun for many temperate seaweed species that are important intertidal foundation species. We asked the question: Where will climate change have the greatest impact on three foundational, macroalgal species that occur along North-Atlantic shores: Fucus serratus, Fucus vesiculosus, and Ascophyllum nodosum? To predict distributional changes of these key species under three IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) climate change scenarios (A2, A1B, and B1) over the coming two centuries, we generated Ecological Niche Models with the program MAXENT. Model predictions suggest that these three species will shift northwards as an assemblage or “unit” and that phytogeographic changes will be most pronounced in the southern Arctic and the southern temperate provinces. Our models predict that Arctic shores in Canada, Greenland, and Spitsbergen will become suitable for all three species by 2100. Shores south of 45° North will become unsuitable for at least two of the three focal species on both the Northwest- and Northeast-Atlantic coasts by 2200. If these foundational species are unable to adapt to the rising temperatures, they will lose their centers of genetic diversity and their loss will trigger an unpredictable shift in the North-Atlantic intertidal ecosystem. 相似文献
6.
7.
Belinda Gallardo Philine S. E. zu Ermgassen David C. Aldridge 《Journal of Biogeography》2013,40(12):2274-2284
8.
For millennia, locust swarms have recurrently devastated crop productivity across continents. In much of Europe, locust outbreaks have been considerably reduced by human pressure in recent decades, but important foci of outbreaks still exist in Spain. Distribution models are often used to derive spatial hypotheses and risk maps. Because insufficient information is available to include the extreme plasticity of the solitary and gregarious phases of locusts in large‐scale spatial models, we modelled the distribution either of Acrididae species or of outbreaks per se. Confirmed occurrences of Dociostaurus, Calliptamus and Chorthippus species were obtained from a field survey complemented by museum collection data and the published literature. The locations of confirmed or potential outbreaks covering two time periods of 20 years each were obtained from the literature and from Spanish autonomous community reports. Models were built with one topographic and eleven climatic predictors. We evaluated the ability of different models to predict outbreak recurrence and found that models based on Moroccan locust data or outbreak occurrence data performed the best. We generated a predictive map of the climatic favourability for locust outbreaks in Spain and found that the major foci of locust swarms were encompassed by those areas categorized by the models as areas of highest risk. Predictive maps of outbreak favourability can facilitate the more sustainable use of insecticides and more efficient integrated pest management. 相似文献
9.
Large shifts in species ranges have been predicted under future climate scenarios based primarily on niche‐based species distribution models. However, the mechanisms that would cause such shifts are uncertain. Natural and anthropogenic fires have shaped the distributions of many plant species, but their effects have seldom been included in future projections of species ranges. Here, we examine how the combination of climate and fire influence historical and future distributions of the ponderosa pine–prairie ecotone at the edge of the Black Hills in South Dakota, USA, as simulated by MC1, a dynamic global vegetation model that includes the effects of fire, climate, and atmospheric CO2 concentration on vegetation dynamics. For this purpose, we parameterized MC1 for ponderosa pine in the Black Hills, designating the revised model as MC1‐WCNP. Results show that fire frequency, as affected by humidity and temperature, is central to the simulation of historical prairies in the warmer lowlands versus woodlands in the cooler, moister highlands. Based on three downscaled general circulation model climate projections for the 21st century, we simulate greater frequencies of natural fire throughout the area due to substantial warming and, for two of the climate projections, lower relative humidity. However, established ponderosa pine forests are relatively fire resistant, and areas that were initially wooded remained so over the 21st century for most of our future climate x fire management scenarios. This result contrasts with projections for ponderosa pine based on climatic niches, which suggest that its suitable habitat in the Black Hills will be greatly diminished by the middle of the 21st century. We hypothesize that the differences between the future predictions from these two approaches are due in part to the inclusion of fire effects in MC1, and we highlight the importance of accounting for fire as managed by humans in assessing both historical species distributions and future climate change effects. 相似文献
10.
Ecological niche modeling is an effective tool to characterize the spatial distribution of suitable areas for species, and it is especially useful for predicting the potential distribution of invasive species. The widespread submerged plant Hydrilla verticillata (hydrilla) has an obvious phylogeographical pattern: Four genetic lineages occupy distinct regions in native range, and only one lineage invades the Americas. Here, we aimed to evaluate climatic niche conservatism of hydrilla in North America at the intraspecific level and explore its invasion potential in the Americas by comparing climatic niches in a phylogenetic context. Niche shift was found in the invasion process of hydrilla in North America, which is probably mainly attributed to high levels of somatic mutation. Dramatic changes in range expansion in the Americas were predicted in the situation of all four genetic lineages invading the Americas or future climatic changes, especially in South America; this suggests that there is a high invasion potential of hydrilla in the Americas. Our findings provide useful information for the management of hydrilla in the Americas and give an example of exploring intraspecific climatic niche to better understand species invasion. 相似文献
11.
Lan‐Anh T. Tran Quinten Bafort Frederique Steen Amelia Gmez Garreta Sofie D&#x;Hondt Kathy Ann Miller Sofie Vranken Ante
uljevi&#x; Jennifer E. Smith Olivier De Clerck 《Journal of phycology》2021,57(1):370-378
Here, we report for the first time the presence of Dictyota cyanoloma in southern California. Dictyota cyanoloma is conspicuous in harbors and bays by its distinctive bright blue‐iridescent margins. This species was originally described from Europe, but subsequent studies have revealed that it represented an introduction from Australia. The current distribution of D. cyanoloma comprises southern Australia and the North East Atlantic, including the Mediterranean Sea and the Macaronesian islands. The presence of D. cyanoloma in southern California is supported by molecular cox1 and psbA gene sequences. A reconstruction of the invasive history based on nine polymorphic microsatellite markers reveals a close affinity of the Californian specimens with European populations. Dictyota cyanoloma in the United States appears to be (so far) restricted to the Californian coast from San Diego Bay in the south to Santa Catalina Island and Long Beach Harbor in the north. A correlative species distribution model suggests gradually declining habitat suitability north of the Southern Californian Bight and high suitability in Baja California, including the Gulf of California. Finally, its widespread abundance in bays and harbors suggests shipping is a likely transport mechanism. 相似文献
12.
13.
Gisele R. Winck Marlon Almeida‐Santos Thiago A. Dorigo Felipe B. Telles Carlos F. D. Rocha 《Biotropica》2017,49(1):117-129
Some studies have suggested that non‐native species invasions may threaten local diversity by creating homogenized environments. However, many studies have been based on limited or anecdotal data, and/or have failed to consider the influence of habitat modification together with possible influences of non‐native species on native ones. Hemidactylus mabouia (Squamata, Gekkonidae) likely invaded natural environments in Brazil hundreds of years ago. Yet, little is known about whether it affects native lizard fauna. We tested whether H. mabouia negatively influences native lizard species richness and abundance on a regional scale and locally through niche overlap. We analyzed species abundance and richness of nine lizard assemblages, in five of which H. mabouia occurred. We evaluated niche overlap of species in a lizard assemblage with high H. mabouia abundance through null models. Niche axes included spatial use, temporal activity and diet. Although species abundance did not differ among sites with and without the invasive species, the presence of H. mabouia seems constrained to the richer assemblages sampled. We observed significantly higher niche overlap in spatial (?obs = 0.63; ?exp = 0.37; Pobs ≥ Pexp = 0.0002) and trophic axes (?obs = 0.46; ?exp = 0.17; Pobs ≥ Pexp < 0.001), but not in activity. When we considered all axes (three‐dimensional niche), there was no overlapping among the lizard species. Our findings did not support the hypothesis that this non‐native species negatively influences other sympatric lizard species. 相似文献
14.
The study of the ecology and natural history of species has traditionally ceased when a species goes extinct, despite the benefit to current and future generations of potential findings. We used the extinct Carolina parakeet as a case study to develop a framework investigating the distributional limits, subspecific variation, and migratory habits of this species as a means to recover important information about recently extinct species. We united historical accounts with museum collections to develop an exhaustive, comprehensive database of every known occurrence of this once iconic species. With these data, we combined species distribution models and ordinal niche comparisons to confront multiple conjectured hypotheses about the parakeet's ecology with empirical data on where and when this species occurred. Our results demonstrate that the Carolina parakeet's range was likely much smaller than previously believed, that the eastern and western subspecies occupied different climatic niches with broad geographical separation, and that the western subspecies was likely a seasonal migrant while the eastern subspecies was not. This study highlights the novelty and importance of collecting occurrence data from published observations on extinct species, providing a starting point for future investigations of the factors that drove the Carolina parakeet to extinction. Moreover, the recovery of lost autecological knowledge could benefit the conservation of other parrot species currently in decline and would be crucial to the success of potential de‐extinction efforts for the Carolina parakeet. 相似文献
15.
Yueyun Zhang Chongtao Chen Li Li Chengjian Zhao Weicai Chen Yong Huang 《Ecology and evolution》2014,4(17):3383-3394
The black‐spotted tokay and the red‐spotted tokay are morphologically distinct and have largely allopatric distributions. The black‐spotted tokay is characterized by a small body size and dark skin with sundry spots, while the red‐spotted tokay has a relatively large body size and red spots. Based on morphological, karyotypic, genetic, and distribution differences, recent studies suggested their species status; however, their classifications remain controversial, and additional data such as ecological niches are necessary to establish firm hypotheses regarding their taxonomic status. We reconstructed their ecological niches models using climatic and geographic data. We then performed niche similarity tests (niche identity and background tests) and point‐based analyses to explore whether ecological differentiation has occurred, and whether such differences are sufficient to explain the maintenance of their separate segments of environmental ranges. We found that both niche models of the black‐ and the red‐spotted tokay had a good fit and a robust performance, as indicated by the high area under the curve (AUC) values (“black” = 0.982, SD = ± 0.002, “red” = 0.966 ± 0.02). Significant ecological differentiation across the entire geographic range was found, indicating that the involvement of ecological differentiation is important for species differentiation. Divergence along the environmental axes is highly associated with climatic conditions, with isothermality being important for the “black” form, while temperature seasonality, precipitation of warmest quarter, and annual temperature range together being important for the “red” form. These factors are likely important factors in niche differentiation between the two forms, which result in morphological replacement. Overall, beside morphological and genetic differentiation information, our results contribute to additional insights into taxonomic distinction and niche differentiation between the black‐ and the red‐spotted tokay. 相似文献
16.
Lélis A. Carlos‐Júnior Danilo M. Neves Newton P. U. Barbosa Timothy P. Moulton Joel C. Creed 《Ecology and evolution》2015,5(11):2162-2171
Tubastraea tagusensis, a coral native to the Galapagos Archipelago, has successfully established and invaded the Brazilian coast where it modifies native tropical rocky shore and coral reef communities. In order to understand the processes underlying the establishment of T. tagusensis, we tested whether Maxent, a tool for species distribution modeling, based on the native range of T. tagusensis correctly forecasted the invasion range of this species in Brazil. The Maxent algorithm was unable to predict the Brazilian coast as a suitable environment for the establishment of T. tagusensis. A comparison between these models and a principal component analysis (PCA) allowed us to examine the environmental dissimilarity between the two occupied regions (native and invaded) and to assess the species' occupied niche breadth. According to the PCA results, lower levels of chlorophyll‐a and nitrate on the Atlantic coast segregate the Brazilian and Galapagos environments, implying that T. tagusensis may have expanded its realized niche during the invasion process. We tested the possible realized niche expansion in T. tagusensis by assuming that Tubastraea spp. have similar fundamental niches, which was supported by exploring the environmental space of T. coccinea, a tropical‐cosmopolitan congener of T. tagusensis. We believe that the usage of Maxent should be treated with caution, especially when applied to biological invasion (or climate change) scenarios where the target species has a highly localized native (original) distribution, which may represent only a small portion of its fundamental niche, and therefore a violation of a SDM assumption. 相似文献
17.
Sandeep Sen Kadukothanahally Nagaraju Shivaprakash Neelavara A. Aravind Gudasalamani Ravikanth Selvadurai Dayanandan 《Ecology and evolution》2016,6(18):6510-6523
Conservation managers and policy makers are often confronted with a challenging dilemma of devising suitable strategies to maintain agricultural productivity while conserving endemic species that at the early stages of becoming pests of agricultural crops. Identification of environmental factors conducive to species range expansion for forecasting species distribution patterns will play a central role in devising management strategies to minimize the conflict between the agricultural productivity and biodiversity conservation. Here, we present results of a study that predicts the distribution of Indrella ampulla, a snail endemic to the Western Ghats biodiversity hotspot, which is becoming a pest in cardamom (Ellettaria cardamomum) plantations. We determined the distribution patterns and niche overlap between I. ampulla and Ellettaria cardamomum using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) niche modeling techniques under current and future (2020–2080) climatic scenarios. The results showed that climatic (precipitation of coldest quarter and isothermality) and soil (cation exchange capacity of soil [CEC]) parameters are major factors that determine the distribution of I. ampulla in Western Ghats. The model predicted cardamom cultivation areas in southern Western Ghats are highly sensitive to invasion of I. ampulla under both present and future climatic conditions. While the land area in the central Western Ghats is predicted to become unsuitable for I. ampulla and Ellettaria cardamomum in future, we found 71% of the Western Ghats land area is suitable for Ellettaria cardamomum cultivation and 45% suitable for I. ampulla, with an overlap of 35% between two species. The resulting distribution maps are invaluable for policy makers and conservation managers to design and implement management strategies minimizing the conflicts to sustain agricultural productivity while maintaining biodiversity in the region. 相似文献
18.
《Insect Conservation and Diversity》2017,10(5):415-424
- We tested the adequacy of two richness‐modelling approaches within the ‘spatially explicit species assemblage modelling’ (SESAM) framework for drosophilid flies in a tropical biome.
- The pattern of drosophilid species richness throughout the Brazilian savanna was investigated by comparing richness estimates from macroecological models (MEM) and stacked species distribution models (S‐SDM). We used occurrence records for macroecological modelling and to generate geographic ranges by modelling species’ niches, which were stacked to generate SDM richness. Richness predictions were compared between models and with empirical data from well‐sampled areas.
- The spatial variation in drosophilid richness for both estimates revealed more species in the central and south‐eastern regions of the biome. Nonetheless, MEM generated a more fragmented pattern than S‐SDM, with scattered patches of high richness. S‐SDM produced richness estimates nearer to the empirical values than MEM, which in turn strongly underestimated richness.
- The correlation between S‐SDM and observed richness suggests that climate is the major (indirect) driver of drosophilid richness in the Brazilian savanna. Richness estimates based on macroecological modelling are, however, almost certainly affected by inventory incompleteness and sampling bias. We emphasise that S‐SDM can be a valuable approach to explore species richness patterns in poorly sampled regions.
19.
20.
Dusit Ngoprasert Antony J. Lynam Ronglarp Sukmasuang Naruemon Tantipisanuh Wanlop Chutipong Robert Steinmetz Kate E. Jenks George A. Gale Lon I. Grassman Jr. Shumpei Kitamura JoGayle Howard Passanan Cutter Peter Cutter Peter Leimgruber Nucharin Songsasen David H. Reed 《Biotropica》2012,44(6):810-817
Clouded Leopard, Leopard, and Tiger are threatened felids in Southeast Asia, but little is known about the factors influencing their distributions. Using logistic regression, we assessed how habitat variables, prey detection patterns, and presence of intraguild predators affect the occurrence of these felids across 13 protected areas within Thailand. Our analysis is based on data from 1108 camera‐trap locations (47,613 trap‐nights). Clouded Leopard and Leopard are associated with habitat where Red Muntjac and Eurasian Wild Pig were most likely to be present. Tiger are associated with habitat with a higher likelihood for the presence of Gaur, Eurasian Wild Pig, and Sambar. Clouded Leopard and Tiger were both weakly associated with areas with mature evergreen forest. Besides availability of prey, associations with potential competitors also appear to influence the distribution of these felids, although the strength of these effects requires further investigation. Occurrence rates for Clouded Leopard were no different in protected areas with Leopard versus without Leopards. Leopard had similar occurrence rates regardless of the presence of Tiger, but Leopards were less likely to be detected at the same camera‐trap points with the larger felid. Our results suggest that the two most commonly photographed prey species in the study areas serve as key prey species, Eurasian Wild Pig for all three carnivores and Red Muntjac for Leopard and Clouded Leopard. 相似文献