Adaptive nest clustering and density‐dependent nest survival in dabbling ducks

Density‐dependent population regulation is observed in many taxa, and understanding the mechanisms that generate density dependence is especially important for the conservation of heavily‐managed species. In one such system, North American waterfowl, density dependence is often observed at continental scales, and nest predation has long been implicated as a key factor driving this pattern. However, despite extensive research on this topic, it remains unclear if and how nest density influences predation rates. Part of this confusion may have arisen because previous studies have studied density‐dependent predation at relatively large spatial and temporal scales. Because the spatial distribution of nests changes throughout the season, which potentially influences predator behavior, nest survival may vary through time at relatively small spatial scales. As such, density‐dependent nest predation might be more detectable at a spatially‐ and temporally‐refined scale and this may provide new insights into nest site selection and predator foraging behavior. Here, we used three years of data on nest survival of two species of waterfowl, mallards and gadwall, to more fully explore the relationship between local nest clustering and nest survival. Throughout the season, we found that the distribution of nests was consistently clustered at small spatial scales (?50–400 m), especially for mallard nests, and that this pattern was robust to yearly variation in nest density and the intensity of predation. We demonstrated further that local nest clustering had positive fitness consequences – nests with closer nearest neighbors were more likely to be successful, a result that is counter to the general assumption that nest predation rates increase with nest density.     

Nest survival in year‐round breeding tropical red‐capped larks Calandrella cinerea increases with higher nest abundance but decreases with higher invertebrate availability and rainfall

Nest survival is critical to breeding in birds and plays an important role in life‐history evolution and population dynamics. Studies evaluating the proximate factors involved in explaining nest survival and the resulting temporal patterns are biased in favor of temperate regions. Yet, such studies are especially pertinent to the tropics, where nest predation rates are typically high and environmental conditions often allow for year‐round breeding. To tease apart the effects of calendar month and year, population‐level breeding activity and environmental conditions, we studied nest survival over a 64‐month period in equatorial, year‐round breeding red‐capped larks Calandrella cinerea in Kenya. We show that daily nest survival rates varied with time, but not in a predictable seasonal fashion among months or consistently among years. We found negative influences of flying invertebrate biomass and rain on nest survival and higher survival of nests when nests were more abundant, which suggests that nest predation resulted from incidental predation. Although an increase in nest predation is often attributed to an increase in nest predators, we suggest that in our study, it may be caused by altered predator activity resulting from increased activity of the primary prey, invertebrates, rather than activity of the red‐capped larks. Our results emphasize the need to conduct more studies in Afro‐tropical regions because proximate mechanisms explaining nest predation can be different in the unpredictable and highly variable environments of the tropics compared with the relatively predictable seasonal changes found in temperate regions. Such studies will aid in better understanding of the environmental influences on life‐history variation and population dynamics in birds.     

Nest‐site selection and productivity of Vesper Sparrows breeding in grazed habitats

ABSTRACT Livestock grazing in the shortgrass steppe of the Intermountain region of British Columbia may have a negative impact on ground‐nesting birds, but evidence of such an impact is lacking. We examined nest‐site selection and productivity of ground‐nesting Vesper Sparrows (Pooecetes gramineus) across sites with different grazing histories. From 2006 to 2008, we monitored Vesper Sparrow nests and measured vegetation characteristics known to be affected by grazing within nest patches. We used an information‐theoretic approach to test the relative importance of grazing‐affected vegetation variables as predictors of nest‐site selection, nest survival, and nestling condition. Vesper Sparrows selected nest sites with greater cover of late‐seral grass species that decrease in occurrence in response to grazing (i.e., “decreasers”) than was available in random patches in the same territories. Daily nest survival was also lower for nests surrounded by shorter vegetation (odds ratio = 1.12). However, “decreaser” cover was not associated with either of the two indices of productivity measured (daily nest survival probability and nestling condition). In addition, vegetation height, although an important driver of success, was not linked with nest‐site selection, and no vegetation‐cover variable was positively associated with productivity, despite nest concealment being central to our predictions. This suggests that predation risk for nests in areas with shorter vegetation was being elevated through some factor unrelated to concealment. Our results show that grazing reduced both the availability of suitable habitat for and nesting success of Vesper Sparrows, indicating that grazing could pose a threat to population persistence at a broader scale and could potentially contribute to observed declines. Additional research is needed to determine if grazing guidelines in the Intermountain region of British Columbia should be amended, better enforced, or both to prevent regional declines in populations of ground‐nesting grassland birds.     

Comparative nest survival of three sympatric loon species breeding in the Arctic

Identifying factors influencing nest survival among sympatric species is important for understanding and managing sources of variation in population dynamics of individual species. Three species of loons nest sympatrically in northern Alaska and differ in body size, life history characteristics, and population trends. We tested the effects of competition, nest site selection, and water level variations on nest survival of Pacific Gavia pacifica, yellow‐billed G. adamsii, and red‐throated loons G. stellata on the Arctic Coastal Plain in Alaska. Although overall nest survival rates did not differ between species, the factors influencing nest survival varied. Nest site selection influenced nest survival for Pacific and yellow‐billed loons, with both species having high nest survival when nesting on islands and peninsulas, likely due to a reduction in access by terrestrial predators. However, on mainland shorelines, Pacific loons had lower nest survival than yellow‐billed loons, and used a higher proportion of vegetation mats for nest sites suggesting that their smaller body size makes them less adept at nest defense. Nest site selection did not influence nest survival of red‐throated loons corresponding to our result of no nest site preferences by this species. Initiation date had a strong influence on nest survival for Pacific and yellow‐billed loons with nests laid earlier having higher survival. Pacific and yellow‐billed loon nests were susceptible to flooding due to precipitation, which contrasted with red‐throated loons that nest on smaller lakes with lower water level variations. Competition did not affect nest survival for any of the species likely due to most territorial encounters occurring prior to incubation. The only influence we found on red‐throated loon nest survival was differences among years. Our results indicate that loons chose nest sites based on predation risk and that factors influencing breeding success of closely related species may differ under similar breeding conditions.     

Delayed egg‐laying and shortened incubation duration of Arctic‐breeding shorebirds coincide with climate cooling

Biological impacts of climate change are exemplified by shifts in phenology. As the timing of breeding advances, the within‐season relationships between timing of breeding and reproductive traits may change and cause long‐term changes in the population mean value of reproductive traits. We investigated long‐term changes in the timing of breeding and within‐season patterns of clutch size, egg volume, incubation duration, and daily nest survival of three shorebird species between two decades. Based on previously known within‐season patterns and assuming a warming trend, we hypothesized that the timing of clutch initiation would advance between decades and would be coupled with increases in mean clutch size, egg volume, and daily nest survival rate. We monitored 1,378 nests of western sandpipers, semipalmated sandpipers, and red‐necked phalaropes at a subarctic site during 1993–1996 and 2010–2014. Sandpipers have biparental incubation, whereas phalaropes have uniparental incubation. We found an unexpected long‐term cooling trend during the early part of the breeding season. Three species delayed clutch initiation by 5 days in the 2010s relative to the 1990s. Clutch size and daily nest survival showed strong within‐season declines in sandpipers, but not in phalaropes. Egg volume showed strong within‐season declines in one species of sandpiper, but increased in phalaropes. Despite the within‐season patterns in traits and shifts in phenology, clutch size, egg volume, and daily nest survival were similar between decades. In contrast, incubation duration did not show within‐season variation, but decreased by 2 days in sandpipers and increased by 2 days in phalaropes. Shorebirds demonstrated variable breeding phenology and incubation duration in relation to climate cooling, but little change in nonphenological components of traits. Our results indicate that the breeding phenology of shorebirds is closely associated with the temperature conditions on breeding ground, the effects of which can vary among reproductive traits and among sympatric species.     

Nest survival rates of Red‐crested Cardinals increase with nest age in south‐temperate forests of Argentina

ABSTRACT The main cause of nest mortality for most bird species is predation and nest survival rates often vary in relation to time‐specific variables. Few investigators have examined time‐specific patterns of nest survival in Neotropical birds, and most such studies have focused on tropical and subtropical species. To better understand age‐related patterns of nest survival, we studied nest survival of Red‐crested Cardinals (Paroaria coronata, Thraupidae) in a south‐temperate forest in Argentina. We modeled daily nest survival rates (DSR) using program MARK. We examined the relationship between nest age and nest survival rate, controlling for the effects of physical characteristics of nest sites and progression of the breeding season. We monitored 367 nests for a total of 4018 exposure days. We found that DSR increased with nest age and was higher in small isolated patches than in large continuous patches of forests. The increase of DSR with nest age could be a consequence of more vulnerable nests being predated early in the nesting cycle or a result of parents defending nests more vigorously as nestlings age because of their increasing reproductive value. Open areas of grassland that surrounded the small isolated patches of forests in our study may have been a barrier to predator movements, possibly explaining the lower predation rates. Nest survival rates in our study were lower than those reported for tropical or Nearctic temperate birds, but similar to those reported in other studies of Neotropical temperate birds. Reasons for the low nest survival rates of Neotropical temperate birds remain unclear, and additional studies of predator communities are needed to help elucidate this topic.     

Nest survival is influenced by parental behaviour and heterospecifics in a mixed‐species colony

Studies of avian nest success often focus on examining influences of variation in environmental and seasonal factors. However, in‐depth evaluations can also incorporate variation in individual incubation behaviour to further advance our understanding of avian reproductive ecology. We examined these relationships in colonially nesting Black‐crowned Night‐Herons Nycticorax nycticorax using intensive video‐monitoring methods to quantify incubation behaviours. We modelled nest survival as a function of both extrinsic factors and incubation behaviours over a 3‐year period (2010–12) on Alcatraz Island, USA. Model‐averaged parameter estimates indicated that nest survival increased as a function of greater incubation constancy (% of time spent incubating eggs within a 24‐h period), and average daily precipitation throughout the nesting stage. Common Ravens Corvus corax are the only known nest predator of Night‐Herons on Alcatraz Island, as on many other coastal Pacific islands. We also investigated the effects of heterospecific nesting of California Gulls Larus californicus and Western Gulls Larus occidentalis in a mixed‐species colony with Night‐Herons, based on nesting proximity data collected over a 2‐year period (2011–12). This second analysis indicated that, in addition to incubation behaviours, nesting heterospecifics are an important factor for explaining variation in Night‐Heron nest survival. However, contrary to our original expectation, we found that Night‐Herons experienced increased nest survival with increasing distance from gull colony boundaries. These results may apply to other areas with multiple colonial nesting species and similar predator communities and climatic patterns.     

Factors that influence vital rates of Seaside and Saltmarsh sparrows in coastal New Jersey,USA

As saltmarsh habitat continues to disappear, understanding the factors that influence the population dynamics of saltmarsh breeding birds is an important step in the conservation of these declining species. Using 5 yrs (2011–2015) of demographic data, we evaluated and compared apparent adult survival and nest survival of Seaside (Ammodramus maritimus) and Saltmarsh (A. caudacutus) sparrows at the Edwin B. Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge in New Jersey, USA. We determined the effect of site management history (unditched vs. ditched marshes) on adult and nest survival to aid in prioritizing future management or restoration actions. Apparent adult survival (61.6%, 95% CI: 52.5–70.0%) of Seaside Sparrows averaged > 1.5 times greater than that of Saltmarsh Sparrows (39.9%, 95% CI: 34.0–46.2%). Nest survival and predation and flooding rates did not differ between species, and predation was the primary cause of nest failure for both species. Apparent adult survival and nest survival did not differ between unditched and ditched marshes for either species, indicating that marsh ditching history may not affect the quality of breeding habitat for these species. Because predation was the primary cause of nest failure for both species in New Jersey, we suggest that future studies should focus on identifying predator communities in salt marshes and the potential for implementing predator‐control programs to limit population declines.     

Nesting ecology of solitary‐nesting Amur Falcons (Falco amurensis) in central Mongolia

Amur Falcons (Falco amurensis) are a migratory species that face a variety of threats across their range, but little is known about their breeding ecology. These falcons breed in forest habitats in Eastern and Central Asia using nests constructed by corvids, including Eurasian Magpies (Pica pica). We monitored nests of 21 pairs of Amur Falcons at Hustai National Park in central Mongolia in 2017. Our objectives were to describe their basic nesting ecology, estimate nest survival by modeling the daily survival rate (DSR), examine nest selection by modeling it as a function of nest and site covariates, and use a spatial simulation to test hypotheses concerning intra‐ and interspecific avoidance. Clutch sizes averaged 4.1 eggs (N = 21 nests), and incubation and nestling periods averaged 25.7 and 26.1 d, respectively. The daily survival rate was 0.98, with young in 12 nests surviving to fledging. Nest structures were more likely to be selected as percent cover of nest bowls increased, usually in the form of a dome of sticks with multiple side entrances. Closed nests likely provide increased protection from predators. In contrast to congeneric Red‐footed Falcons (F. vespertinus) that nest in large colonies, Amur Falcons nested no farther from or closer to nests of either conspecifics or congeners than expected by chance. One factor likely contributing to this difference is that Red‐footed Falcons often use the nests of colonial‐nesting Rooks (Corvus frugilegus), whereas Amur Falcons typically use the nests of non‐colonial Eurasian Magpies. The ongoing loss of deciduous trees like white birch (Betula platyphylla) across the breeding range of Amur Falcons, probably due to climate change and increased grazing pressure, is likely to reduce the availability of nesting habitat for Eurasian Magpies which, in turn, will likely reduce availability of nests for Amur Falcons and other small falcons.     

Exclosure fences around nests of imperiled Florida Grasshopper Sparrows reduce rates of predation by mammals

Increasing nest survival by excluding predators is a goal of many bird conservation programs. However, new exclosure projects should be carefully evaluated to assess the potential risks of disturbance. We tested the effectiveness of predator exclosure fences (hereafter, fences) for nests of critically endangered Florida Grasshopper Sparrows (Ammodramus savannarum floridanus) at a dry prairie site (Three Lakes; 2015–2018) and a pasture site (the Ranch; 2015–2016) in Osceola County, Florida, USA. We installed fences at nests an average of 8 days after the start of incubation, and nest abandonment after fence installation was rare (2 of 149 installations). Predation was the leading cause of failure for unfenced nests at both sites (48–73%). At Three Lakes, nest cameras revealed that mammals and snakes were responsible for 61.5% and 38.5% of predation events, respectively, at unfenced nests. Fences reduced the daily probability of predation (0.016 for fenced nests vs. 0.074 for unfenced nests). The probability that a fenced nest would survive from discovery to fledging was more than double that of unfenced nests (60.4% vs. 27.7%). However, we found no difference in daily nest survival at the Ranch between the year before nests were fenced (2015; 0.874) and the year when all but one nest were fenced (2016; 0.867) because red imported fire ants (Solenopsis invicta) were responsible for 86% of predation events at fenced nests at the Ranch. The use of cameras at fenced nests revealed that site‐specific differences in nest predators explained variation in fence efficiency between sites. Our fence design may be useful for other species of grassland birds, but site‐specific predator communities and species‐specific response of target bird species to fences should be assessed before installing fences at other sites.     

Use of mistletoes by the Grey Go‐away‐bird (Corythaixoides concolor,Musophagidae) in a semi‐arid savannah,south‐west Zimbabwe

Mistletoes are preferred nesting sites for many bird species in a range of habitats. However, no studies have examined the use of mistletoes by nesting birds in the semi‐arid savannah. We studied nesting in mistletoe and its role in determining nesting success in the Grey Go‐away‐bird in south‐west Zimbabwe. We modelled the effects of mistletoe, mistletoe abundance, nest microclimate, concealment and nest height on daily survival rates (DSR) using program MARK. A constant survival model was best fitted for the Grey Go‐away‐bird suggesting a constant nest survival rate across the nesting period. Mistletoe nests had lower DSR than nests placed elsewhere in the canopy. Mistletoe abundance and nest height had a positive association with DSR whereas visibility distance, microclimate and concealment were negatively associated with DSR. Overall, survival for nests in mistletoe was 22.1% compared with 90.5% for nests in other substrates over the 50‐day nesting period. In conclusion, the low nest survival in mistletoe suggests either that the factors used to select mistletoe as nest sites by these birds are poor predictors of nest success or that nesting in mistletoe may be maladaptive.     

Contemporary breeding biology of critically endangered Regent Honeyeaters: implications for conservation

Identifying factors influencing the demographics of threatened species is essential for conservation, but a lack of comprehensive demographic data often impedes the effective conservation of rare and mobile species. We monitored breeding of critically endangered and semi‐nomadic Regent Honeyeaters Anthochaera phrygia (global population c. 100 pairs) over 3 years throughout their range. Overall nest success probability (0.317) was highly spatially variable and considerably lower than previous estimates for this (and many other honeyeater) species, as was productivity of successful nests (mean 1.58 juveniles fledged). Nest surveillance revealed high predation rates by a range of birds and arboreal mammals as the primary cause of nest failure. An estimated 12% of pairs either failed to establish a territory or their nests did not reach the egg stage. We also found a male bias to the adult sex ratio, with an estimated 1.18 males per female. Juvenile survival for the first 2 weeks after fledging was high (86%). Management interventions that aim to increase nest success in areas of low nest survival must be investigated to address an apparent decline in reproductive output and avoid extinction of the Regent Honeyeater. We show that temporal and spatial variation in the breeding success of rare and highly mobile species can be quantified with robust population monitoring using sampling regimens that account for their life histories. Understanding the causes of spatio‐temporal variation in breeding success can enhance conservation outcomes for such species through spatially and temporally targeted recovery actions.     

Influence of olfactory and visual cover on nest site selection and nest success for grassland‐nesting birds

Habitat selection by animals is influenced by and mitigates the effects of predation and environmental extremes. For birds, nest site selection is crucial to offspring production because nests are exposed to extreme weather and predation pressure. Predators that forage using olfaction often dominate nest predator communities; therefore, factors that influence olfactory detection (e.g., airflow and weather variables, including turbulence and moisture) should influence nest site selection and survival. However, few studies have assessed the importance of olfactory cover for habitat selection and survival. We assessed whether ground‐nesting birds select nest sites based on visual and/or olfactory cover. Additionally, we assessed the importance of visual cover and airflow and weather variables associated with olfactory cover in influencing nest survival. In managed grasslands in Oklahoma, USA, we monitored nests of Northern Bobwhite (Colinus virginianus), Eastern Meadowlark (Sturnella magna), and Grasshopper Sparrow (Ammodramus savannarum) during 2015 and 2016. To assess nest site selection, we compared cover variables between nests and random points. To assess factors influencing nest survival, we used visual cover and olfactory‐related measurements (i.e., airflow and weather variables) to model daily nest survival. For nest site selection, nest sites had greater overhead visual cover than random points, but no other significant differences were found. Weather variables hypothesized to influence olfactory detection, specifically precipitation and relative humidity, were the best predictors of and were positively related to daily nest survival. Selection for overhead cover likely contributed to mitigation of thermal extremes and possibly reduced detectability of nests. For daily nest survival, we hypothesize that major nest predators focused on prey other than the monitored species’ nests during high moisture conditions, thus increasing nest survival on these days. Our study highlights how mechanistic approaches to studying cover informs which dimensions are perceived and selected by animals and which dimensions confer fitness‐related benefits.     

The effectiveness of short‐term fox control in protecting a seasonally vulnerable species,the Eastern Long‐necked Turtle (Chelodina longicollis)

Reducing predation by introduced predators on seasonally vulnerable prey is of interest to biodiversity and game managers around the world. In Australia, the Red Fox (Vulpes vulpes) is a significant predator of freshwater turtle nests, destroying up to 93% of nests. We used a nonrandomized intervention study to assess the effectiveness of a short‐term (3‐week) but broad‐scale baiting operation in reducing the level of nest predation on artificial turtle nests around a complex lake system during a major flooding event in north‐western Victoria. Estimates of fox occupancy declined from 0.58 (0.44–0.70 95% CI) to 0.34 (0.21–0.46 95% CI) following fox control. Modelling of nest‐survival rates indicated there was no significant change in survival rates. Effective short‐term predator control to protect seasonally vulnerable prey is desirable and achievable. Knowledge of underlying predator density, predator–bait encounter and consumption rates, and the optimal duration of short‐term control is needed to reduce the risk to prey.     

Nest‐site selection and demography of Wilson's Plovers on a North Carolina barrier island

Despite concerns about their population status, information about the habitat preferences, population size, and vital statistics of Wilson's Plovers (Charadrius wilsonia) is currently lacking. We compared habitat characteristics of nest sites and unused sites and examined factors affecting nest success on a barrier island in North Carolina in 2010 and 2011. We monitored 83 nests with cameras and added heart‐rate monitors in artificial eggs to 36 of these nests for a concurrent study of the effects of jet overflights; predator exclosures were placed around 17 of the nests with cameras. Wilson's Plovers used interdune areas, flats, and isolated dunelets on flats more than expected based on availability, and nests were located closer to dense vegetation than unused sites. Nests in interdune areas had higher daily survival rates than nests on flats, but distance to dense vegetation did not affect nest survival. Nests without cameras, heart‐rate monitors, or exclosures had a 35% predicted probability of hatching at least one egg. Exclosed nests had higher daily survival rates than nests without exclosures, but daily survival rates were lower for nests with cameras or heart‐rate monitors and for nests initiated later in the season. Daily survival rates also declined as nests aged. The predicted probability of fledging was 74%, resulting in a reproductive output of 0.78 fledglings/pair. Apparent annual adult survival was 77%, and the apparent annual survival rate for birds banded as chicks was 42%. Additional research is needed throughout the range of Wilson's Plovers to determine if populations are stable or decreasing, and to predict the productivity rates needed to maintain current populations. However, our results suggest that in our study area, predator removal and protection of sparsely vegetated overwash habitats will likely have the greatest impact on reproductive output.     

Phenology largely explains taller grass at successful nests in greater sage‐grouse

Much interest lies in the identification of manageable habitat variables that affect key vital rates for species of concern. For ground‐nesting birds, vegetation surrounding the nest may play an important role in mediating nest success by providing concealment from predators. Height of grasses surrounding the nest is thought to be a driver of nest survival in greater sage‐grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; sage‐grouse), a species that has experienced widespread population declines throughout their range. However, a growing body of the literature has found that widely used field methods can produce misleading inference on the relationship between grass height and nest success. Specifically, it has been demonstrated that measuring concealment following nest fate (failure or hatch) introduces a temporal bias whereby successful nests are measured later in the season, on average, than failed nests. This sampling bias can produce inference suggesting a positive effect of grass height on nest survival, though the relationship arises due to the confounding effect of plant phenology, not an effect on predation risk. To test the generality of this finding for sage‐grouse, we reanalyzed existing datasets comprising >800 sage‐grouse nests from three independent studies across the range where there was a positive relationship found between grass height and nest survival, including two using methods now known to be biased. Correcting for phenology produced equivocal relationships between grass height and sage‐grouse nest survival. Viewed in total, evidence for a ubiquitous biological effect of grass height on sage‐grouse nest success across time and space is lacking. In light of these findings, a reevaluation of land management guidelines emphasizing specific grass height targets to promote nest success may be merited.     

Life‐history tradeoffs revealed by seasonal declines in reproductive traits of Arctic‐breeding shorebirds

Seasonal declines in breeding performance are widespread in wild animals, resulting from temporal changes in environmental conditions or from individual variation. Seasonal declines might drive selection for early breeding, with implications for other stages of the annual cycle. Alternatively, selection on the phenology of nonbreeding stages could constrain timing of the breeding season and lead to seasonal changes in reproductive performance. We studied 25 taxa of migratory shorebirds (including five subspecies) at 16 arctic sites in Russia, Alaska, and Canada. We investigated seasonal changes in four reproductive traits, and developed a novel Bayesian risk‐partitioning model of daily nest survival to examine seasonal trends in two causes of nest failure. We found strong seasonal declines in reproductive traits for a subset of species. The probability of laying a full four‐egg clutch declined by 8–78% in 12 of 25 taxa tested, daily nest survival rates declined by 1–12% in eight of 22 taxa, incubation duration declined by 2.0–2.5% in two of seven taxa, and mean egg volume declined by 5% in one of 15 taxa. Temporal changes were not fully explained by individual variation. Across all species, the proportion of failed nests that were depredated declined over the season from 0.98 to 0.60, while the proportion abandoned increased from 0.01 to 0.35 and drove the seasonal declines in nest survival. An increase in abandonment of late nests is consistent with a life‐history tradeoff whereby either adult mortality increased or adults deserted the breeding attempt to maximize adult survival. In turn, seasonal declines in clutch size and incubation duration might be adaptive to hasten hatching of later nests. In other species of shorebirds, we found no seasonal patterns in breeding performance, suggesting that some species are not subject to selective pressure for early breeding.     

Spatial and temporal factors associated with nest survival of Gray Flycatchers in managed ponderosa pine forests

Gray Flycatchers (Empidonax wrightii) breed in a variety of habitats in the arid and semi‐arid regions of the western United States, but little is known about their breeding biology, especially in the northern portion of their range where they nest in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests. From May to July 2014 and 2015, we conducted surveys for singing male Gray Flycatchers along the eastern slope of the Cascade Range in Washington, U.S.A, monitored flycatcher nests, and quantified nest‐site vegetation. We used a logistic‐exposure model fit within a Bayesian framework to model the daily survival probability of flycatcher nests. During the 2 yr of our study, we monitored 141 nests, with 93% in ponderosa pines. Mean clutch size was 3.6 eggs and the mean number of young fledged per nest was 3.2. Predation accounted for 90% of failed nests. We found a positive association between daily nest survival and both nest height and distance of nest substrates from the nearest tree. Flycatchers that locate their nests higher above the ground and further from adjacent trees may be choosing the safest alternative because higher nests may be less exposed to terrestrial predators and nests in trees that are farther from other trees may be less exposed to arboreal predators such as jays (Corvidae) that may forage in patches with connected canopies. Nests in trees farther from other trees may also allow earlier detection of approaching predators and thus aid in nest defense.     

Impacts of nest predators and weather on reproductive success and population limitation in a long‐distance migratory songbird

Although avian nesting success is much studied, little is known about the relative importance of the factors that contribute to annual reproductive success and population limitation, especially for long‐distance migratory songbird species. We combined a field experiment limiting access to nests by mammalian predators with modeling of long‐term field data of American redstarts (Parulidae: Setophaga ruticilla) to assess the effects of multiple environmental variables on breeding success and population limitation. Experimental treatment (baffles placed around tree boles beneath active nests; n = 71) increased nesting success of this single‐brooded species significantly (77 vs 50% in controls; n = 343), demonstrating that scansorial mammals, primarily red squirrels Tamiasciurus hudsonicus and eastern chipmunks Tamias striatus, reduced reproductive success. Based on unbaffled nests (n = 466), daily nest survival varied annually, and was positively influenced by May temperature and negatively by sciurid nest predator abundance. Daily nest survival was also influenced positively by June rainfall, and declined with nest age but not with calendar date. Since nest failure was overwhelmingly caused by nest predation, these significant climate and nest‐age effects in our models are indirect, likely influencing nest predator and/or nesting bird behaviors that in turn influenced nest predation. Redstart population density had no effect on nesting success, after accounting for other factors. Annual reproductive success accounted for 34% of the variability in annual population change in redstarts in our study area. Our findings document 1) breeding season population limitation in this species, 2) a link between tree masting and bird population dynamics via mammal population fluctuations, 3) the independent contributions of summer versus winter population processes in a migratory species, and 4) the potential complexity of climate‐biotic interactions.     

Spatio‐temporal variation in European starling reproductive success at multiple small spatial scales

Understanding population dynamics requires spatio‐temporal variation in demography to be measured across appropriate spatial and temporal scales. However, the most appropriate spatial scale(s) may not be obvious, few datasets cover sufficient time periods, and key demographic rates are often incompletely measured. Consequently, it is often assumed that demography will be spatially homogeneous within populations that lack obvious subdivision. Here, we quantify small‐scale spatial and temporal variation in a key demographic rate, reproductive success (RS), within an apparently contiguous population of European starlings. We used hierarchical cluster analysis to define spatial clusters of nest sites at multiple small spatial scales and long‐term data to test the hypothesis that small‐scale spatio‐temporal variation in RS occurred. RS was measured as the number of chicks alive ca. 12 days posthatch either per first brood or per nest site per breeding season (thereby incorporating multiple breeding attempts). First brood RS varied substantially among spatial clusters and years. Furthermore, the pattern of spatial variation was stable across years; some nest clusters consistently produced more chicks than others. Total seasonal RS also varied substantially among spatial clusters and years. However, the magnitude of variation was much larger and the pattern of spatial variation was no longer temporally consistent. Furthermore, the estimated magnitude of spatial variation in RS was greater at smaller spatial scales. We thereby demonstrate substantial spatial, temporal, and spatio‐temporal variation in RS occurring at very small spatial scales. We show that the estimated magnitude of this variation depended on spatial scale and that spatio‐temporal variation would not have been detected if season‐long RS had not been measured. Such small‐scale spatio‐temporal variation should be incorporated into empirical and theoretical treatments of population dynamics.