Climate change and loss of saltmarshes: consequences for birds

Saltmarshes are areas of vegetation subject to tidal inundation and are important to birds for several reasons. Saltmarshes are areas of high primary productivity and their greatest significance for coastal birds is probably as the base of estuarine food webs, because saltmarshes export considerable amounts of organic carbon to adjacent habitats, particularly to the invertebrates of mudflats. In addition, saltmarshes are of direct importance to birds by providing sites for feeding, nesting and roosting. Climate change can affect saltmarshes in a number of ways, including through sea-level rise. When sea-level rises the marsh vegetation moves upward and inland but sea walls that prevent this are said to lead to coastal squeeze and loss of marsh area. However, evidence from southeast England, and elsewhere, indicates that sea-level rise does not necessarily lead to loss of marsh area because marshes accrete vertically and maintain their elevation with respect to sea-level where the supply of sediment is sufficient. Organogenic marshes and those in areas where sediment may be more limiting (e.g. some west coast areas) may be more susceptible to coastal squeeze, as may other marshes, if some extreme predictions of accelerated rates of sea-level rise are realized.     

Processes Contributing to Resilience of Coastal Wetlands to Sea-Level Rise

The objectives of this study were to identify processes that contribute to resilience of coastal wetlands subject to rising sea levels and to determine whether the relative contribution of these processes varies across different wetland community types. We assessed the resilience of wetlands to sea-level rise along a transitional gradient from tidal freshwater forested wetland (TFFW) to marsh by measuring processes controlling wetland elevation. We found that, over 5 years of measurement, TFFWs were resilient, although some marginally, and oligohaline marshes exhibited robust resilience to sea-level rise. We identified fundamental differences in how resilience is maintained across wetland community types, which have important implications for management activities that aim to restore or conserve resilient systems. We showed that the relative importance of surface and subsurface processes in controlling wetland surface elevation change differed between TFFWs and oligohaline marshes. The marshes had significantly higher rates of surface accretion than the TFFWs, and in the marshes, surface accretion was the primary contributor to elevation change. In contrast, elevation change in TFFWs was more heavily influenced by subsurface processes, such as root zone expansion or compaction, which played an important role in determining resilience of TFFWs to rising sea level. When root zone contributions were removed statistically from comparisons between relative sea-level rise and surface elevation change, sites that previously had elevation rate deficits showed a surplus. Therefore, assessments of wetland resilience that do not include subsurface processes will likely misjudge vulnerability to sea-level rise.     

Future Coastal Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding - A Global Assessment

Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential. Furthermore, we identify needs for further research and scope for improvement in this kind of scenario-based exposure analysis.     

滨海湿地消浪服务空间分布特征——以上海市崇明岛为例

全球气候变化增加了滨海地区遭受侵蚀、风暴潮等灾害的风险,利用自然湿地的消浪功能增强海岸防护是当前研究的热点,但目前对消浪服务的空间分布评估研究相对匮乏。以上海市崇明岛环岛滨海湿地为例,结合GIS与Kobayashi指数形式波高衰减模型评估常规状态下湿地消浪服务的空间分布特征。结果显示,大、小潮升条件下,崇明环岛湿地消波的平均高度分别为0.94、0.54 m与效度分别为83.6%、60.4%,消波高度的空间分布表现为南岸小于北岸,消波效度的空间分布在小潮升时与消波高度相似,而大潮升时南岸的消波效度有明显提升。物理环境与生物因素空间分布及其相互作用的异质性,导致消浪服务的空间分布也具有空间异质性。实际参与消波的断面宽度与不同景观消波服务的评估结果表明,一个断面的所有景观并非都参与到消浪过程中,即使在大潮升时期,不同岸段景观的平均参与度不足71%。潮高与波高的增加并不会使参与消波的景观规模成对应比例的增加,说明消波服务在空间上具有明显的非线性特征。研究可为滨海湿地生态修复空间规划、基于生态系统的海岸带管理、自然资本核算提供科技支撑。     

Landscape-scale socio-economics of sea-level rise

Flooding due to sea-level rise resulting from climate may have serious socio-economic consequences. Socio-economic impacts of an accelerated sea-level rise are often described at an aggregated spatial level that is useful for inter-regional or international comparisons, but this is of limited value for determining local effects. Local effects need to be based on the local attributes of coastal vulnerability at the landscape level, especially if effects on the natural environment are of particular interest. In analysing the socio-economics of sea-level rise at the landscape scale, it is also important to consider how humans might adapt to any risks. This paper gives an overview of the methodologies used for socio-economic studies carried out at a regional level and places the results of the studies in the context of waterbirds and the environment. A German study made at the landscape level, using a multidisciplinary approach to deal with the various possible effects of sea-level rise, is discussed. The economic impacts of sea-level rise may be lowered by our ability to adapt to the changes. The options of whether to protect, retreat or accommodate, however, may affect the effects of sea-level rise on coastal habitats and the bird populations that they support. Strengthening of embankments and the creation of storm surge barriers and dams, for example, might lead to the reduction of intertidal and saltmarsh habitats and their associated bird populations. Managed retreat, by contrast, may prevent the loss of these habitats. The decision as to which option is chosen, however, is likely to be largely influenced by local economic considerations.     

Forecasting the effects of sea-level rise at Chongming Dongtan Nature Reserve in the Yangtze Delta,Shanghai, China

Located at the mouth of the Yangtze Estuary, the Chongming Dongtan Nature Reserve is extremely vulnerable to climate change and especially to accelerated sea-level rise. We use a variety of data from remote sensing, an in situ global positioning system (GPS), tidal gauges, nautical charts, geographic spatial analysis modeling and IPCC sea-level rise scenarios to forecast the potential impacts of increased sea level on the coastal wetland habitat at Chongming Dongtan Nature Reserve. The results indicate that around 40% of the terrestrial area of the Dongtan Reserve will be inundated by the year 2100 due to an estimated 0.88 m increase in sea level. In particular, the Scirpus mariqueter communities and bare tidal flats are more vulnerable to sea-level rise. The limitations of this approach and the implication of the results for wetland and ecosystem conservation as well as management are discussed.     

Salinity responses of inland and coastal neotropical trees species

Plant Ecology - Salinization of coastal lands by sea-level rise means that information on the response of tropical tree species to salinity is urgently required to effectively manage coastal...     

Holocene sand beaches of southern California: ENSO forcing and coastal processes on millennial scales

A proxy record of sand beach accretion for the past 10,000 years has been assembled from radiocarbon dates on the Pismo clam, Tivela stultorum, in archaeological sites along the southern California coast. When this record is compared with numerous climate proxies, it appears that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) controls on wave climate and sediment flux have acted upon regional geomorphology at different sea levels to either accrete or erode the Holocene beaches of southern California. Tivela dates from the Santa Maria coast indicate that perennial sand beaches built by 9000 years ago in response to abundant riverine sediment contained by the natural groin at Point Sal, wave sheltering by the massive headland of Point Buchon, and Early Holocene El Niño events. On the western Santa Barbara coast, sand beaches were forming by 7000 years ago in response to high sand fluxes from the Santa Ynez Mountains to the many small littoral catchments, possibly aided by high local rates of uplift. Decline of these sand beach habitats 5000-4000 years ago coincides with increased El Niño-driven wave energy. In accord with slowing in sea-level rise ca. 6000 years ago, sand beaches were most widespread in the period 6000-5000 years ago on Estero Bay, the western Santa Barbara coast, and west of Point Dume. However, Tivela dates first appear 5000 years ago in the Oceanside and Silver Strand littoral cells of the San Diego region. This lag coincides with the Middle Holocene shift to a more variable climate and modern periodicity in El Niño events that increased sediment supply to the southern coast. The ontogeny of the littoral cells provides timelines for modeling coastal evolution with implications for sand beach ecology, prehistoric human coastal adaptations, and coastal planning for future climate change.     

Salt marsh as a coastal filter for the oceans: changes in function with experimental increases in nitrogen loading and sea-level rise

Coastal salt marshes are among Earth's most productive ecosystems and provide a number of ecosystem services, including interception of watershed-derived nitrogen (N) before it reaches nearshore oceans. Nitrogen pollution and climate change are two dominant drivers of global-change impacts on ecosystems, yet their interacting effects at the land-sea interface are poorly understood. We addressed how sea-level rise and anthropogenic N additions affect the salt marsh ecosystem process of nitrogen uptake using a field-based, manipulative experiment. We crossed simulated sea-level change and ammonium-nitrate (NH(4)NO(3))-addition treatments in a fully factorial design to examine their potentially interacting effects on emergent marsh plants in a central California estuary. We measured above- and belowground biomass and tissue nutrient concentrations seasonally and found that N-addition had a significant, positive effect on a) aboveground biomass, b) plant tissue N concentrations, c) N stock sequestered in plants, and d) shoot:root ratios in summer. Relative sea-level rise did not significantly affect biomass, with the exception of the most extreme sea-level-rise simulation, in which all plants died by the summer of the second year. Although there was a strong response to N-addition treatments, salt marsh responses varied by season. Our results suggest that in our site at Coyote Marsh, Elkhorn Slough, coastal salt marsh plants serve as a robust N trap and coastal filter; this function is not saturated by high background annual N inputs from upstream agriculture. However, if the marsh is drowned by rising seas, as in our most extreme sea-level rise treatment, marsh plants will no longer provide the ecosystem service of buffering the coastal ocean from eutrophication.     

Vulnerability of Mediterranean Ecosystems to Long-Term Changes along the Coast of Israel

Although human activity is considered to be a major driving force affecting the distribution and dynamics of Mediterranean ecosystems, the full consequences of projected climate variability and relative sea-level changes on fragile coastal ecosystems for the next century are still unknown. It is unclear how these waterfront ecosystems can be sustained, as well as the services they provide, when relative sea-level rise and global warming are expected to exert even greater pressures in the near future (drought, habitat degradation and accelerated shoreline retreat). Haifa Bay, northern Israel, has recorded a landward sea invasion, with a maximum sea penetration 4,000 years ago, during an important period of urban development and climate instability. Here, we examine the cumulative pressure of climate shifts and relative sea-level changes in order to investigate the patterns and mechanisms behind forest replacement by an open-steppe. We provide a first comprehensive and integrative study for the southern Levant that shows that (i) human impact, through urbanization, has been the main driver behind ecological erosion in the past 4,000 years; (ii) climate pressures have reinforced this impact; and (iii) local coastal changes have played a decisive role in eroding ecosystem resilience. These three parameters, which have closely interacted during the last 4,000 years in Haifa Bay, clearly indicate that for an efficient management of the coastal habitats, anthropogenic pressures linked to urban development must be reduced in order to mitigate the predicted effects of Global Change.     

Erosion of insect diversity in response to 7000 years of relative sea-level rise on a small Mediterranean island

We have investigated the potential effects of global sea-level rise on Mediterranean coastal wetlands by studying the Coleoptera and pollen fossil remains in a 7000-year sedimentary record, which we obtained from a coastal marshy area on a small Mediterranean island (Cavallo, southern Corsica). Using beetle structural diversity and plant composition as recorded prior to marine and human influences as a ‘past analogue’, we reconstructed the impact of the Holocene relative sea-level rise on the coastal ecosystem. Our results show that beetle species richness and diversity were highest when freshwater was predominant, which was the case until about 6200 years ago. We also found that a major increase in salinity had occurred over the last 5300 years, experiencing a peak rate of increase at about 3700 years ago. These changes are clearly reflected in the fossil records of the following key taxa: halophilous beetles (Ochthebius sp., Pterostichus cursor), halophilous plants (Chenopodiaceae, Tamarix) and non-pollen palynomorphs (microforaminiferal linings). In particular, we note that the majority (60%) of wetland beetle fauna became locally extinct in response to the salinity changes, and these changes were exacerbated by the recent aggravation of human pressures on the island. The major part of this diversity loss occurred 3700 years ago, when the relative Mediterranean sea-level rose above ?1.5 ± 0.3 meters. These findings demonstrate the value of fossil beetle assemblage analysis as a diagnostic for the response of coastal wetland biodiversity to past salinity increases, and serve as a means of forecasting the effects of sea-level rise in the future. The conservation of inland freshwater bodies could ultimately prove essential to preserving freshwater insect diversity in threatened coastal environments.     

海平面上升影响下广西钦州湾红树林脆弱性评价

全球气候变化所导致的海平面上升等现象对海岸带产生显著影响。红树林是生长在热带、亚热带沿海潮间带的生态系统,对海平面上升极为敏感。以广西钦州湾红树林生态系统为对象,采用SPRC(Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence)评估模式分析了气候变化所导致的海平面上升对红树林生态系统的主要影响。构建了以海平面上升速率、地面沉降/抬升速率、生境高程、日均淹水时间、潮滩坡度和沉积速率为指标的脆弱性评价体系。在GIS平台上量化各脆弱性指标,计算脆弱性指数并分级,建立了定量评价红树林生态系统脆弱性方法,实现了在不同海平面上升情景(近40年来广西海平面平均上升速率、IPCC预测的B1和A1FI情景)和时间尺度下(2030年、2050和2100年),广西钦州湾红树林生态系统脆弱性的定量空间评价。研究结果表明,在近40年广西海平面平均上升速率与B1情景下,钦州湾红树林在各评估时段表现为不脆弱。而在A1FI情景下,至2050年研究区域41.3%红树林为低脆弱,至2100年增加至69.8%。研究采用的SPRC评估模型、脆弱性评价指标体系和定量空间评估方法能够客观定量评价气候变化所导致的海平面上升影响下红树林生态系统脆弱性,可为制定切实可行的应对措施和保障海岸带生态系统安全提供科学依据。     

Efforts to aid downstream migrating brown trout (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Salmo trutta</Emphasis> L.) kelts and smolts passing a hydroelectric dam and a spillway

A Wetland Change Model has been developed to identify the vulnerability of coastal wetlands at broad spatial (regional to global (mean spatial resolution of 85 km)) and temporal scales (modelling period of 100 years). The model provides a dynamic and integrated assessment of wetland loss, and a means of estimating the transitions between different vegetated wetland types and open water under a range of scenarios of sea-level rise and changes in accommodation space from human intervention. This paper is an overview of key issues raised in the process of quantifying broad-scale vulnerabilities of coastal wetlands to forcing from sea-level rise discussing controlling factors of tidal range, sediment availability and accommodation space, identification of response lags and defining the threshold for wetland loss and transition.     

Numerical modeling of the impact of sea-level rise on fringing coral reef hydrodynamics and sediment transport

Most climate projections suggest that sea level may rise on the order of 0.5–1.0 m by 2100; it is not clear, however, how fluid flow and sediment dynamics on exposed fringing reefs might change in response to this rapid sea-level rise. Coupled hydrodynamic and sediment-transport numerical modeling is consistent with recent published results that suggest that an increase in water depth on the order of 0.5–1.0 m on a 1–2 m deep exposed fringing reef flat would result in larger significant wave heights and setup, further elevating water depths on the reef flat. Larger waves would generate higher near-bed shear stresses, which, in turn, would result in an increase in both the size and the quantity of sediment that can be resuspended from the seabed or eroded from adjacent coastal plain deposits. Greater wave- and wind-driven currents would develop with increasing water depth, increasing the alongshore and offshore flux of water and sediment from the inner reef flat to the outer reef flat and fore reef where coral growth is typically greatest. Sediment residence time on the fringing reef flat was modeled to decrease exponentially with increasing sea-level rise as the magnitude of sea-level rise approached the mean water depth over the reef flat. The model results presented here suggest that a 0.5–1.0 m rise in sea level will likely increase coastal erosion, mixing and circulation, the amount of sediment resuspended, and the duration of high turbidity on exposed reef flats, resulting in decreased light availability for photosynthesis, increased sediment-induced stress on the reef ecosystem, and potentially affecting a number of other ecological processes.     

山东半岛南部近岸海域晚第四纪以来有孔虫和介形类化石群落分布特征及古环境演化

在山东半岛南部近岸海域QDZ03孔16.2m的沉积记录中,通过有孔虫和介形类化石群落的定量分析,探讨了研究区晚第四纪氧同位素(MIS)4期以来古沉积环境演变。在距今6万年前后开始的黄海海退期(相当于MIS4期),发育了有多次沉积间断的第1层(孔深16.2~12.0m)陆相地层。进入玉木亚间冰期(相当于MIS3)后,由于海平面的震荡上升,发育了第2层—第5层的滨岸弱海相—陆相沉积层,其中第5层上部可能包含部分MIS2期的产物,而MIS2期绝大部分沉积地层缺失。在距今12 000—11 000年前,海水逐渐由黄海入侵到青岛地区,发育了第6层下段(孔深9.1—8.6m)的海陆过渡相沉积层;在全新世最大洪泛面MFS来临之前(距今约11.0—9.0ka期间),海平面进一步上升,钻孔中发育了第6层中段(孔深8.6—7.7m)的滨岸相沉积层。随着距今6 000年前南黄海最大海泛面出现,后降至现今水平,并基本保持稳定状态,在黄河、近岸短源河流以及海岸带基岩侵蚀物等物质联合贡献下完成了南黄海中部泥质沉积体在近岸的延伸(7.7m以上),其中顶部约4.8m以上粒度粗化及与之相关的较多含量胶结壳有孔虫化石的出现,可能与约3 000—2 000年以来海岸带地区人类活动的加剧有关。     

海平面上升影响下长江口滨海湿地脆弱性评价

研究滨海湿地对气候变化的响应,评估气候变化对其影响,并提出切实可行的应对策略,是保障海岸带生态系统安全的重要前提.本研究以长江口滨海湿地为对象,采用“源-途径-受体-影响”模型和IPCC脆弱性定义分析了气候变化引起的海平面上升对滨海湿地生态系统的主要影响.构建了基于海平面上升速率、地面沉降速率、生境高程、生境淹水阈值和沉积速率为指标的脆弱性评价指标体系.在GIS平台上量化各脆弱性指标,计算脆弱性指数并分级,建立了海平面上升影响下滨海湿地生态系统脆弱性的定量空间评估方法,实现了在不同海平面上升情景（近30年长江口沿海平均海平面上升速率和IPCC排放情景特别报告中的A₁F₁情景）和时间尺度（2030和2050年）下,长江口滨海湿地生态系统脆弱性的定量空间评价.结果表明： 在近30年长江口平均海平面上升速率（0.26 cm·a^-1）情景下,至2030年,研究区轻度脆弱和中度脆弱的滨海湿地分别占6.6%和0.1%;至2050年,轻度脆弱和中度脆弱的滨海湿地分别占9.8%和0.2%.在A₁F₁ （0.59 cm·a^-1）情景下,至2030年,轻度脆弱和中度脆弱的滨海湿地面积比例分别为9.0%和0.1%;至2050年,轻度脆弱、中度脆弱和高度脆弱的面积比例分别为9.5%、1.0%和0.3%.
     

沿海地区应对气候变化和人口快速增长的韧性土地利用规划——以美国佛罗里达州马坦萨斯河流域为例

气候变化引起的海平面上升以及人口快速增长引起的土地利用变化为新时期全球沿海低洼地区的土地利用规划带来了新的挑战。有别于传统的土地利用规划理念与方法,引入韧性城市的概念,以美国佛罗里达州马坦萨斯河入海口地区应对气候变化和人口快速增长的韧性土地利用规划为例,通过构建基于地理信息系统的综合模型,整合海平面上升影响模型、物种栖息地模型和土地利用预测模型来预测适应海平面上升的土地利用规划方案。研究的结果可为中国沿海地区特别是三角洲地区应对气候变化提供借鉴。     

Impact of expected climate change on mangroves

There is a consensus of scientific opinion that the activities of man will cause a significant change in the global climate over the next hundred years. The rising level of carbon dioxide and other industrial gases in the atmosphere may lead to global warming with an accompanying rise in sea-level. Mangrove ecosystems grow in the intertidal zones in tropical and sub-tropical regions and are likely to be early indicators of the effects of climate change. The best estimates of predicted climate change in the literature are presented. It is suggested that a rise in mean sea-level may be the most important factor influencing the future distribution of mangroves but that the effect will vary dramatically depending on the local rate of sea-level rise and the availability of sediment to support reestablishment of the mangroves. The predicted rise in mean air temperature will probably be of little consequence to the development of mangroves in general but it may mean that the presence of mangroves will move further north and south, though this will depend on a number of additional factors. The effect of enhanced atmospheric CO₂ on the growth of mangroves is unknown at this time but that there is some evidence that not all species of mangroves will respond similarly. The socio-economic impacts of the effects of climate on mangrove ecosystems may include increased risk of flooding, increased erosion of coast lines, saline intrusion and increased storm surges.     

Hydrologic Context Alters Greenhouse Gas Feedbacks of Coastal Wetland Salinization

Ecosystems - Changes in sea-level rise and precipitation are altering patterns of coastal wetland hydrology and salinization. We conducted paired laboratory (20&nbsp;weeks) and field...     

Sea-level rise and drought interactions accelerate forest decline on the Gulf Coast of Florida, USA

Sea-level rise threatens low-lying coastal ecosystems globally. In Florida, USA, salinity stress due to increased tidal flooding contributes to the dramatic and well documented decline of species-rich coastal forest areas along the Gulf of Mexico. Here, we present the results of a study of coastal forest stand dynamics in thirteen 400 m² plots representing an elevation gradient of 0.58–1.1 m affected by tidal flooding and rising sea levels. We extended previously published data from 1992–2000 to 2005 to quantify the full magnitude of the 1998–2002 La Niña-associated drought. Populations of the dominant tree species, Sabal palmetto (cabbage palm), declined more rapidly during 2000–2005 than predicted from linear regressions based on the 1992–2000 data. Dramatic increases in Juniperus virginiana (Southern red cedar) and S. palmetto mortality during 2000–2005 as compared with 1995–2000 are apparently due to the combined effects of a major drought and ongoing sea-level rise. Additionally, coastal forest stands continued to decline in species richness with increased tidal flooding frequency and decreasing elevation. Stable isotope (H, O) analyses demonstrate that J. virginiana accesses fresher water sources more than S. palmetto . Carbon isotopes reveal increasing δ ¹³C enrichment of S. palmetto and J. virginiana with increased tidal flooding and decreased elevation, demonstrating increasing water stress in both species. Coastal forests with frequent tidal flooding are unable to support species-rich forests or support regeneration of the most salt-tolerant tree species over time. Given that rates of sea-level rise are predicted to increase and periodic droughts are expected to intensify in the future due to global climate change, coastal forest communities are in jeopardy if their inland retreat is restricted.