Fetal Growth and Risk of Stillbirth: A Population-Based Case–Control Study

Background

Stillbirth is strongly related to impaired fetal growth. However, the relationship between fetal growth and stillbirth is difficult to determine because of uncertainty in the timing of death and confounding characteristics affecting normal fetal growth.

Methods and Findings

We conducted a population-based case–control study of all stillbirths and a representative sample of live births in 59 hospitals in five geographic areas in the US. Fetal growth abnormalities were categorized as small for gestational age (SGA) (<10th percentile) or large for gestational age (LGA) (>90th percentile) at death (stillbirth) or delivery (live birth) using population, ultrasound, and individualized norms. Gestational age at death was determined using an algorithm that considered the time-of-death interval, postmortem examination, and reliability of the gestational age estimate. Data were weighted to account for the sampling design and differential participation rates in various subgroups. Among 527 singleton stillbirths and 1,821 singleton live births studied, stillbirth was associated with SGA based on population, ultrasound, and individualized norms (odds ratio [OR] [95% CI]: 3.0 [2.2 to 4.0]; 4.7 [3.7 to 5.9]; 4.6 [3.6 to 5.9], respectively). LGA was also associated with increased risk of stillbirth using ultrasound and individualized norms (OR [95% CI]: 3.5 [2.4 to 5.0]; 2.3 [1.7 to 3.1], respectively), but not population norms (OR [95% CI]: 0.6 [0.4 to 1.0]). The associations were stronger with more severe SGA and LGA (<5th and >95th percentile). Analyses adjusted for stillbirth risk factors, subset analyses excluding potential confounders, and analyses in preterm and term pregnancies showed similar patterns of association. In this study 70% of cases and 63% of controls agreed to participate. Analysis weights accounted for differences between consenting and non-consenting women. Some of the characteristics used for individualized fetal growth estimates were missing and were replaced with reference values. However, a sensitivity analysis using individualized norms based on the subset of stillbirths and live births with non-missing variables showed similar findings.

Conclusions

Stillbirth is associated with both growth restriction and excessive fetal growth. These findings suggest that, contrary to current practices and recommendations, stillbirth prevention strategies should focus on both severe SGA and severe LGA pregnancies. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Chlamydia trachomatis and Anti-MUC1 Serology and Subsequent Risk of High-Grade Serous Ovarian Cancer: A Population-Based Case–Control Study in Northern Sweden

BACKGROUND: Chlamydia trachomatis salpingitis causes inflammatory damage to the fallopian tube and could potentially cause initiation and progression of high-grade serous ovarian cancer (HGSC). Furthermore, C. trachomatis infection may stimulate mucin 1 (MUC1) protein production, possibly affecting anti-MUC1 antibody levels. The aim of this study was to examine if serology indicating past infection with C. trachomatis as well as anti-MUC1 production was associated with subsequent risk of HGSC. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In a prospective nested case–control study within the Northern Sweden Health and Disease Study and the Northern Sweden Maternity Cohort, the prevalence of chlamydial and anti-MUC1 antibodies was analyzed in blood samples drawn more than one year before diagnosis from 92 women with HGSC and 359 matched controls. Matching factors were age, date at blood draw, and sampling cohort. Plasma C. trachomatis IgG was analyzed using commercial micro-immunofluorescence test; chlamydial Heat Shock Protein 60 IgG (cHSP60) and anti-MUC1 IgG were analyzed with ELISA technique. RESULTS: The prevalence of C. trachomatis IgG and cHSP60 IgG antibodies, as well as the level of anti-MUC1 IgG was similar in women with HGSC and controls (16.3% vs. 17.0%, P = 0.87; 27.2% vs. 28.5%, P = 0.80; median 0.24 vs. 0.25, P = 0.70). Anti-MUC1 IgG and cHSP60 IgG levels were correlated (r = 0.169; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this prospective nested case–control study did not support an association between C. trachomatis infection, as measured by chlamydial serology, or anti-MUC1 IgG antibodies, and subsequent risk of HGSC.     

Meta-Analysis of the Association between COX-2 Polymorphisms and Risk of Colorectal Cancer Based on Case–Control Studies

Objective

Cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) is an inducible enzyme converting arachidonic acid to prostaglandins and playing important roles in inflammatory diseases as well as tumor development. Previous studies investigating the association between COX-2 polymorphisms and colorectal cancer (CRC) risk reported conflicting results. We performed a meta-analysis of all available studies to explore this association.

Methods

All studies published up to October 2013 on the association between COX-2 polymorphisms and CRC risk were identified by searching electronic databases PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane library. The association between COX-2 polymorphisms and CRC risk was assessed by odds ratios (ORs) together with their 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

Results

Ten studies with 6,774 cases and 9,772 controls were included for −1195A>G polymorphism, 13 studies including 6,807 cases and 10,052 controls were available for −765G>C polymorphism, and 8 studies containing 5,121 cases and 7,487 controls were included for 8473T>C polymorphism. With respect to −765G>C polymorphism, we did not find a significant association with CRC risk when all eligible studies were pooled into the meta-analysis. However, in subgroup analyses by ethnicity and cancer location, with a Bonferroni corrected alpha of 0.05/2, statistical significant increased CRC risk was found in the Asian populations (dominant model CC+CG vs. GG: OR = 1.399, 95%CI: 1.113–1.760, P = 0.004) and rectum cancer patients (CC vs. GG: OR = 2.270, 95%CI: 1.295–3.980, P = 0.004; Recessive model CC vs. CG+GG: OR = 2.269, 95%CI: 1.297–3.970, P = 0.004). In subgroup analysis according to source of control, no significant association was detected. With respect to −1195A>G and 8473T>C polymorphisms, no significant association with CRC risk was demonstrated in the overall and subgroup analyses.

Conclusions

The present meta-analysis suggests that the COX-2 −765G>C polymorphism may be a risk factor for CRC in Asians and rectum cancer patients. Further large and well-designed studies are needed to confirm this association.     

A Prospective Study of Selenium Concentration and Risk of Preeclampsia in Pregnant Iranian Women: a Nested Case–Control Study

Preeclampsia remains a leading cause of maternal and perinatal mortality and morbidity worldwide; however, its specific etiology still remains obscure. Some studies implicate poor maternal selenium status predisposing the mother to preeclampsia. This study was designed to determine changes in plasma selenium levels in women having preeclampsia as compared with those with normal pregnancy. In a nested case–control study, 650 normal primigravida in their first 24–28 weeks participated in the study. After 3 months of follow-up of all subjects, blood selenium levels were measured in 38 women presenting consecutively with preeclampsia and in 38 women having a normal pregnancy by atomic absorption spectrophotometry. Birth outcomes were recorded, such as gestational age at delivery, height, weight, birth head circumflex and 1-min Apgar score. Preeclampsia affects about 5.84 % of pregnancies, and in our study, there were no significant differences in age, anthropometric indices, and family history of preeclampsia between the preeclamptic and control groups. The selenium concentrations in plasma in women with preeclampsia were significantly lower as compared with those in women with normal pregnancy (70.63?±?21.41 versus 82.03?±?15.54 μg/L, p?<?0.05). Being in the bottom tertile of selenium concentration (less than 62.2 μg/L) was associated with greater risk of preeclampsia in pregnant women. The reduced selenium in the maternal circulations observed in the preeclamptic mothers support the hypothesis that insufficient selenium concentration may be a contributing factor to the pathophysiological mechanisms associated with preeclampsia, and optimizing the dietary selenium intake through supplementation could produce demonstrable clinical benefits.     

A Nested Case–Control Study of Metabolically Defined Body Size Phenotypes and Risk of Colorectal Cancer in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)

BackgroundObesity is positively associated with colorectal cancer. Recently, body size subtypes categorised by the prevalence of hyperinsulinaemia have been defined, and metabolically healthy overweight/obese individuals (without hyperinsulinaemia) have been suggested to be at lower risk of cardiovascular disease than their metabolically unhealthy (hyperinsulinaemic) overweight/obese counterparts. Whether similarly variable relationships exist for metabolically defined body size phenotypes and colorectal cancer risk is unknown.ConclusionsThese results support the idea that individuals with the metabolically healthy/overweight phenotype (with normal insulin levels) are at lower colorectal cancer risk than those with hyperinsulinaemia. The combination of anthropometric measures with metabolic parameters, such as C-peptide, may be useful for defining strata of the population at greater risk of colorectal cancer.     

Association between the XRCC1 Arg399Gln Polymorphism and Risk of Cancer: Evidence from 297 Case–Control Studies

Background

The Arg399Gln polymorphism in the X-ray cross-complementing group 1 (XRCC1) had been implicated in cancer susceptibility. The previous published data on the association between XRCC1 Arg399Gln polymorphism and cancer risk remained controversial.

Methodology/Principal Findings

To derive a more precise estimation of the association between the XRCC1 Arg399Gln polymorphism and overall cancer risk, we performed a meta-analysis of 297 case-control studies, in which a total of 93,941 cases and 121,480 controls were included. Overall, significantly increased cancer risk was observed in any genetic model (dominant model: odds ration [OR] = 1.04, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.01–1.07; recessive model: OR = 1.08, 95% CI = 1.03–1.13; additive model: OR = 1.09, 95% CI = 1.04–1.14) when all eligible studies were pooled into the meta-analysis. In further stratified and sensitivity analyses, significantly elevated hepatocellular and breast cancers risk were observed in Asians (dominant model: OR = 1.39, 95% CI = 1.06–1.84) and in Indians (dominant model: OR = 1.64, 95% CI = 1.31–2.04; recessive model: OR = 1.94, 95% CI = 1.09–3.47; additive model: OR = 2.06, 95% CI = 1.50–2.84), respectively.

Conclusions/Significance

This meta-analysis suggests the participation of XRCC1 Arg399Gln is a genetic susceptibility for hepatocellular cancer in Asians and breast cancer in Indians. Moreover, our work also points out the importance of new studies for Arg399Gln association in some cancer types, such as glioma, gastric cancer, and oral cancer, where at least some of the covariates responsible for heterogeneity could be controlled, to obtain a more conclusive understanding about the function of the XRCC1 Arg399Gln polymorphism in cancer development.     

Gestational Age at Birth and ‘Body-Mind’ Health at 5 Years of Age: A Population Based Cohort Study

Numerous studies have identified the effects of prematurity on the neonate’s physical health, however few studies have explored the effects of prematurity on both the physical and mental health of the child as they develop. Secondary analysis of data from the Millennium Cohort Study, a longitudinal study of infants (n = 18 818, born 2000–2002 in the United Kingdom) was performed. Effects of gestational age at birth on health outcomes at 5 years were measured using parental rating of their children’s general health and severity of behavior problems. The association between parent’s general health ratings and behavior problem ratings was low: 86% of those reporting serious behavior problems (5% of the sample, n = 764) rated their child as being in excellent, very good, or good health. Still, a gradient of increasing risk of poorer outcome with decreasing gestational age was observed for a composite health measure (poor/fair health and/or serious behavior problems), suggesting an association with prematurity for this composite assessment of health status. The greatest contribution to the childhood composite health measure at 5 years was for children born at 32–36 weeks gestation: population attributable fractions for having poor outcomes was 3.4% (Bonferroni-adjusted 95% confidence interval 1.1%–6.2%), compared to 1% (0.2–2.3) for birth at less than 32 weeks. Results suggest that preterm children, by school entry, are not only at high risk of physical health problems, but also of behavioral health problems. The recognition of, and response to comprehensive health and well-being outcomes related to prematurity are important in order to correctly plan and deliver adequate paediatric health services and policies.     

Diabetes Mellitus and the Risk of Alzheimer’s Disease: A Nationwide Population-Based Study

Objectives

Possible association between diabetes mellitus (DM) and Alzheimer’s disease (AD) has been controversial. This study used a nationwide population-based dataset to investigate the relationship between DM and subsequent AD incidence.

Methods

Data were collected from Taiwan’s National Health Insurance Research Database, which released a cohort dataset of 1,000,000 randomly sampled people and confirmed it to be representative of the Taiwanese population. We identified 71,433 patients newly diagnosed with diabetes (age 58.74±14.02 years) since January 1997. Using propensity score, we matched them with 71,311 non-diabetic subjects by time of enrollment, age, gender, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and previous stroke history. All the patients were followed up to December 31, 2007. The endpoint of the study was occurrence of AD.

Results

Over a maximum 11 years of follow-up, diabetic patients experienced a higher incidence of AD than non-diabetic subjects (0.48% vs. 0.37%, p<0.001). After Cox proportional hazard regression model analysis, DM (hazard ratio [HR], 1.76; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.50–2.07, p<0.001), age (HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.10–1.12, p<0.001), female gender (HR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.06–1.46, p = 0.008), hypertension (HR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.07–1.59, p = 0.01), previous stroke history (HR, 1.79; 95% CI, 1.28–2.50, p<0.001), and urbanization status (metropolis, HR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.07–1.63, p = 0.009) were independently associated with the increased risk of AD. Neither monotherapy nor combination therapy with oral antidiabetic medications were associated with the risk of AD after adjusting for underlying risk factors and the duration of DM since diagnosis. However, combination therapy with insulin was found to be associated with greater risk of AD (HR, 2.17; 95% CI, 1.04–4.52, p = 0.039).

Conclusion

Newly diagnosed DM was associated with increased risk of AD. Use of hypoglycemic agents did not ameliorate the risk.     

Estrogen Receptor Status in Relation to Risk of Contralateral Breast Cancer–A Population-Based Cohort Study

Background

It is unclear whether estrogen receptor (ER)-status of first primary breast cancer is associated with risk of metachronous (non-simultaneous) contralateral breast cancer (CBC), and to what extent endocrine therapy affects this association.

Methods

We studied the effect of ER-status of the first cancer on the risk of CBC overall, and for different ER-subtypes of CBC, using a large, population-based cohort. The cohort consisted of all women diagnosed with breast cancer in the Stockholm region 1976–2005; 25715 patients, of whom 940 suffered CBC. The relative risk was analyzed mainly using standardized incidence ratios (SIR).

Results

Women with breast cancer had a doubled risk of CBC compared to the risk of breast cancer in the general female population (SIR: 2.22 [2.08–2.36]), for women with a previous ER-positive cancer: SIR = 2.30 (95% CI:2.11–2.50) and for women with a previous ER-negative cancer: SIR = 2.17 (95% CI:1.82–2.55). The relative risk of ER-positive and ER-negative CBC was very similar for women with ER-positive first cancer (SIR = 2.02 [95%CI: 1.80–2.27] and SIR = 1.89 [95%CI: 1.46–2.41] respectively) while for patients with ER-negative first cancer the relative risk was significantly different (SIR = 1.27 [95% CI:0.94–1.68] for ER-positive CBC and SIR = 4.96 [95%CI:3.67–6.56] for ER-negative CBC). Patients with ER-positive first cancer who received hormone therapy still had a significantly higher risk of CBC than the risk of breast cancer for the general female population (SIR = 1.74 [95% CI:1.47–2.03]).

Conclusion

The risk of CBC for a breast cancer patient is increased to about two-fold, compared to the risk of breast cancer in the general female population. This excess risk decreases, but does not disappear, with adjuvant endocrine therapy. Patients with ER-positive first cancers have an increased risk for CBC of both ER subtypes, while patients with ER-negative first cancer have a specifically increased risk of ER-negative CBC.     

Physical Activity and Different Concepts of Fall Risk Estimation in Older People–Results of the ActiFE-Ulm Study

Objectives

To investigate the relationship between physical activity and two measures of fall incidence in an elderly population using person-years as well as hours walked as denominators and to compare these two approaches.

Design

Prospective cohort study with one-year follow-up of falls using fall calendars. Physical activity was defined as walking duration and recorded at baseline over one week using a thigh-worn uni-axial accelerometer (activPAL; PAL Technologies, Glasgow, Scotland). Average daily physical activity was extracted from these data and categorized in low (0–59 min), medium (60–119 min) and high (120 min and more) activity.

Setting

The ActiFE Ulm study located in Ulm and adjacent regions in Southern Germany.

Participants

1,214 community-dwelling older people (≥65 years, 56.4% men).

Measurements

Negative-binomial regression models were used to calculate fall rates and incidence rate ratios for each activity category each with using (1) person-years and (2) hours walked as denominators stratified by gender, age group, fall history, and walking speed. All analyses were adjusted either for gender, age, or both.

Results

No statistically significant association was seen between falls per person-year and average daily physical activity. However, when looking at falls per 100 hours walked, those who were low active sustained more falls per hours walked. The highest incidence rates of falls were seen in low-active persons with slow walking speed (0.57 (95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.33 to 0.98) falls per 100 hours walked) or history of falls (0.60 (95% CI: 0.36 to 0.99) falls per 100 hours walked).

Conclusion

Falls per hours walked is a relevant and sensitive outcome measure. It complements the concept of incidence per person years, and gives an additional perspective on falls in community-dwelling older people.     

Does Hair Dye Use Increase the Risk of Breast Cancer? A Population-Based Case-Control Study of Finnish Women

Introduction

Role of hair dyes in the etiology of breast cancer has occasionally raised concern but previous research has concluded with mixed results. Remnants of prohibited aromatic amines have been found in many hair dye products, and elevated levels of DNA-adducts of these amines have been detected from breast epithelial cells of hair dye users. However, the IARC working group has concluded that there is inadequate evidence for carcinogenicity of personal hair dye use and limited evidence in experimental animals for carcinogenicity of hair colorants.

Material and Methods

We investigated whether the use of hair dyes is associated with breast cancer risk in women. The study design was a retrospective population-based case-control study in Finland, with a self-administered questionnaire from 6,567 breast cancer patients, aged 22–60 years and diagnosed in 2000–2007, and their 21,598 matched controls. We report odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI) from a conditional logistic regression model applied to the frequency matched sets of cases and controls. Bias-adjusted odds ratios from the sensitivity analysis are also presented.

Results

After adjusting for potential confounders, the odds of breast cancer increased by 23% (OR: 1.23, 95% CI: 1.11–1.36) among women who used hair dyes compared to those who did not. In women born before 1950 an increase of 28% was noted (OR: 1.28, 95% CI: 1.10–1.48). We also observed a significant trend between the OR and cumulative use of hair dyes (P: 0.005). Bias-adjusted odds ratios varied between 1.04 and 2.50.

Conclusions

Our results suggest that use of hair dyes is associated with breast cancer incidence. The impact on public health may be substantial due to vast popularity of hair coloring in modern societies. It should be noted that regardless of all efforts, a possibility of bias cannot definitively be ruled out and use of a prospective design is warranted. Based on the present results, it may be concluded however that safety of hair dyes in relation to breast cancer cannot yet be fully acknowledged and lack of external safety assessment within the cosmetics industry is of major concern.     

Association of Diabetes in Pregnancy with Child Weight at Birth,Age 12 Months and 5 Years – A Population-Based Electronic Cohort Study

Background

This study examines the effect of diabetes in pregnancy on offspring weight at birth and ages 1 and 5 years.

Methods

A population-based electronic cohort study using routinely collected linked healthcare data. Electronic medical records provided maternal diabetes status and offspring weight at birth and ages 1 and 5 years (n = 147,773 mother child pairs). Logistic regression models were used to obtain odds ratios to describe the association between maternal diabetes status and offspring size, adjusted for maternal pre-pregnancy weight, age and smoking status.

Findings

We identified 1,250 (0.9%) pregnancies with existing diabetes (27.8% with type 1 diabetes), 1,358 with gestational diabetes (0.9%) and 635 (0.4%) who developed diabetes post-pregnancy. Children whose mothers had existing diabetes were less likely to be large at 12 months (OR: 0.7 (95%CI: 0.6, 0.8)) than those without diabetes. Maternal diabetes was associated with high weight at age 5 years in children whose mothers had a high pre-pregnancy weight tertile (gestational diabetes, (OR:2.1 (95%CI:1.25–3.6)), existing diabetes (OR:1.3 (95%CI:1.0 to 1.6)).

Conclusion

The prevention of childhood obesity should focus on mothers with diabetes with a high maternal pre-pregnancy weight. We found little evidence that diabetes in pregnancy leads to long term obesity ‘programming’.     

Genetic Polymorphisms and the Risk of Myocardial Infarction in Patients Under 45 Years of Age

This study investigates the potential role of 17 chosen polymorphisms in 15 candidate genes and the risk of myocardial infarction in patients under 45 years of age. The study consists of 271 patients with myocardial infarction and 141 controls. The analysis of genetic polymorphisms was performed using the PCR–RFLP method. Of the chosen polymorphisms, two (Leu125Val PECAM1 and A1/A2 FVII) are related to myocardial infarction and two (C677T MTHFR and 5A/6A MMP3) to advanced stenosis in arterial vessels (> 75%). We also found that the frequency of some combinations among the analyzed genes and environmental factors varied between the patient and control groups.     

Prevalence and Burden of Gait Disorders in Elderly Men and Women Aged 60–97 Years: A Population-Based Study

Background

Although gait disorders are common in the elderly, the prevalence and overall burden of these disorders in the general community is not well defined.

Methods

In a cross-sectional investigation of the population-based Bruneck Study cohort, 488 community-residing elderly aged 60–97 years underwent a thorough neurological assessment including a standardized gait evaluation. Gait disorders were classified according to an accepted scheme and their associations to falls, neuropsychological measures, and quality of life were explored.

Results

Overall, 32.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] 28.2%–36.4%) of participants presented with impaired gait. Prevalence increased with age (p<0.001), but 38.3% (95%CI 30.1%–47.3%) of the subjects aged 80 years or older still had a normally preserved gait. A total of 24.0% (95%CI 20.4%–28.0%) manifested neurological gait disorders, 17.4% (14.3%–21.0%) non-neurological gait problems, and 9.2% (6.9%–12.1%) a combination of both. While there was no association of neurological gait disorders with gender, non-neurological gait disorders were more frequent in women (p = 0.012). Within the group of neurological gait disorders 69.2% (95%CI 60.3%–76.9%) had a single distinct entity and 30.8% (23.1%–39.7%) had multiple neurological causes for gait impairment. Gait disorders had a significant negative impact on quantitative gait measures, but only neurological gait disorders were associated with recurrent falls (odds ratio 3.3; 95%CI 1.4–7.5; p = 0.005 for single and 7.1; 2.7–18.7; p<0.001 for multiple neurological gait disorders). Finally, we detected a significant association of gait disorders, in particular neurological gait disorders, with depressed mood, cognitive dysfunction, and compromised quality of life.

Conclusions

Gait disorders are common in the general elderly population and are associated with reduced mobility. Neurological gait disorders in particular are associated with recurrent falls, lower cognitive function, depressed mood, and diminished quality of life.     

Farmer’s Lung Disease and Microbiological Composition of Hay: A Case–Control Study

Previous studies performed in France have suggested that handling hay contaminated with high amounts of moulds, and especially Absidia corymbifera and Eurotium amstelodami, may favour farmer’s lung disease. The circumstances favouring farmer’s lung disease and the distinctive microbiological composition of hay samples that provoke attacks need to be specified. We present a case–control study which investigates the agricultural practices and the microbiological composition of hay handled in patients with farmer’s lung disease as compared to those of a representative control population. Ten cases identified the hay they were handling at the onset of symptoms. The location, type of farm and working conditions were similar to those of the control farms. Conversely, the microbiological composition of hay differed, with significantly higher amounts of E. amstelodami (P < 0.01), A. corymbifera (P = 0.003), mesophilic Streptomyces (P < 0.01), thermophilic Streptomyces (P < 0.01) and Saccharomonospora viridis (P < 0.01) than in the control population. Our results demonstrate that hay identified by patients as having a harmful effect is characterized by a higher total amount of microorganisms, notably five microorganisms that seem discriminative. Mean concentrations are 2- to 115-fold higher in hay suspected to cause symptoms than in hay from a representative panel of farms. Handling hay with high amounts of these five microorganisms constitutes a risk factor for farmer’s lung disease that should be considered for the development of prophylactic measures.     

Venous Thrombosis Risk after Cast Immobilization of the Lower Extremity: Derivation and Validation of a Clinical Prediction Score,L-TRiP(cast), in Three Population-Based Case–Control Studies

Background

Guidelines and clinical practice vary considerably with respect to thrombosis prophylaxis during plaster cast immobilization of the lower extremity. Identifying patients at high risk for the development of venous thromboembolism (VTE) would provide a basis for considering individual thromboprophylaxis use and planning treatment studies.The aims of this study were (1) to investigate the predictive value of genetic and environmental risk factors, levels of coagulation factors, and other biomarkers for the occurrence of VTE after cast immobilization of the lower extremity and (2) to develop a clinical prediction tool for the prediction of VTE in plaster cast patients.

Methods and Findings

We used data from a large population-based case–control study (MEGA study, 4,446 cases with VTE, 6,118 controls without) designed to identify risk factors for a first VTE. Cases were recruited from six anticoagulation clinics in the Netherlands between 1999 and 2004; controls were their partners or individuals identified via random digit dialing. Identification of predictor variables to be included in the model was based on reported associations in the literature or on a relative risk (odds ratio) > 1.2 and p ≤ 0.25 in the univariate analysis of all participants. Using multivariate logistic regression, a full prediction model was created. In addition to the full model (all variables), a restricted model (minimum number of predictors with a maximum predictive value) and a clinical model (environmental risk factors only, no blood draw or assays required) were created. To determine the discriminatory power in patients with cast immobilization (n = 230), the area under the curve (AUC) was calculated by means of a receiver operating characteristic. Validation was performed in two other case–control studies of the etiology of VTE: (1) the THE-VTE study, a two-center, population-based case–control study (conducted in Leiden, the Netherlands, and Cambridge, United Kingdom) with 784 cases and 523 controls included between March 2003 and December 2008 and (2) the Milan study, a population-based case–control study with 2,117 cases and 2,088 controls selected between December 1993 and December 2010 at the Thrombosis Center, Fondazione IRCCS Ca’ Granda–Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Milan, Italy.The full model consisted of 32 predictors, including three genetic factors and six biomarkers. For this model, an AUC of 0.85 (95% CI 0.77–0.92) was found in individuals with plaster cast immobilization of the lower extremity. The AUC for the restricted model (containing 11 predictors, including two genetic factors and one biomarker) was 0.84 (95% CI 0.77–0.92). The clinical model (consisting of 14 environmental predictors) resulted in an AUC of 0.77 (95% CI 0.66–0.87). The clinical model was converted into a risk score, the L-TRiP(cast) score (Leiden–Thrombosis Risk Prediction for patients with cast immobilization score), which showed an AUC of 0.76 (95% CI 0.66–0.86). Validation in the THE-VTE study data resulted in an AUC of 0.77 (95% CI 0.58–0.96) for the L-TRiP(cast) score. Validation in the Milan study resulted in an AUC of 0.93 (95% CI 0.86–1.00) for the full model, an AUC of 0.92 (95% CI 0.76–0.87) for the restricted model, and an AUC of 0.96 (95% CI 0.92–0.99) for the clinical model. The L-TRiP(cast) score resulted in an AUC of 0.95 (95% CI 0.91–0.99).Major limitations of this study were that information on thromboprophylaxis was not available for patients who had plaster cast immobilization of the lower extremity and that blood was drawn 3 mo after the thrombotic event.

Conclusions

These results show that information on environmental risk factors, coagulation factors, and genetic determinants in patients with plaster casts leads to high accuracy in the prediction of VTE risk. In daily practice, the clinical model may be the preferred model as its factors are most easy to determine, while the model still has good predictive performance. These results may provide guidance for thromboprophylaxis and form the basis for a management study.     

Strong Impact of TGF-β1 Gene Polymorphisms on Breast Cancer Risk in Indian Women: A Case-Control and Population-Based Study

Introduction

TGF-β1 is a multi-functional cytokine that plays an important role in breast carcinogenesis. Critical role of TGF-β1 signaling in breast cancer progression is well documented. Some TGF-β1 polymorphisms influence its expression; however, their impact on breast cancer risk is not clear.

Methods

We analyzed 1222 samples in a candidate gene-based genetic association study on two distantly located and ethnically divergent case-control groups of Indian women, followed by a population-based genetic epidemiology study analyzing these polymorphisms in other Indian populations. The c.29C>T (Pro10Leu, rs1982073 or rs1800470) and c.74G>C (Arg25Pro, rs1800471) polymorphisms in the TGF-β1 gene were analyzed using direct DNA sequencing, and peripheral level of TGF-β1 were measured by ELISA.

Results

c.29C>T substitution increased breast cancer risk, irrespective of ethnicity and menopausal status. On the other hand, c.74G>C substitution reduced breast cancer risk significantly in the north Indian group (p = 0.0005) and only in the pre-menopausal women. The protective effect of c.74G>C polymorphism may be ethnicity-specific, as no association was seen in south Indian group. The polymorphic status of c.29C>T was comparable among Indo-Europeans, Dravidians, and Tibeto-Burmans. Interestingly, we found that Tibeto-Burmans lack polymorphism at c.74G>C locus as true for the Chinese populations. However, the Brahmins of Nepal (Indo-Europeans) showed polymorphism in 2.08% of alleles. Mean TGF-β1 was significantly elevated in patients in comparison to controls (p<0.001).

Conclusion

c.29C>T and c.74G>C polymorphisms in the TGF-β1 gene significantly affect breast cancer risk, which correlates with elevated TGF-β1 level in the patients. The c.29C>T locus is polymorphic across ethnically different populations, but c.74G>C locus is monomorphic in Tibeto-Burmans and polymorphic in other Indian populations.