Coral Reef Disturbance and Recovery Dynamics Differ across Gradients of Localized Stressors in the Mariana Islands

The individual contribution of natural disturbances, localized stressors, and environmental regimes upon longer-term reef dynamics remains poorly resolved for many locales despite its significance for management. This study examined coral reefs in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands across a 12-year period that included elevated Crown-of-Thorns Starfish densities (COTS) and tropical storms that were drivers of spatially-inconsistent disturbance and recovery patterns. At the island scale, disturbance impacts were highest on Saipan with reduced fish sizes, grazing urchins, and water quality, despite having a more favorable geological foundation for coral growth compared with Rota. However, individual drivers of reef dynamics were better quantified through site-level investigations that built upon island generalizations. While COTS densities were the strongest predictors of coral decline as expected, interactive terms that included wave exposure and size of the overall fish assemblages improved models (R² and AIC values). Both wave exposure and fish size diminished disturbance impacts and had negative associations with COTS. However, contrasting findings emerged when examining net ecological change across the 12-year period. Wave exposure had a ubiquitous, positive influence upon the net change in favorable benthic substrates (i.e. corals and other heavily calcifying substrates, R² = 0.17 for all reeftypes grouped), yet including interactive terms for herbivore size and grazing urchin densities, as well as stratifying by major reeftypes, substantially improved models (R² = 0.21 to 0.89, lower AIC scores). Net changes in coral assemblages (i.e., coral ordination scores) were more sensitive to herbivore size or the water quality proxy acting independently (R² = 0.28 to 0.44). We conclude that COTS densities were the strongest drivers of coral decline, however, net ecological change was most influenced by localized stressors, especially herbivore sizes and grazing urchin densities. Interestingly, fish size, rather than biomass, was consistently a better predictor, supporting allometric, size-and-function relationships of fish assemblages. Management implications are discussed.     

Outcomes and Trends of Prostate Biopsy for Prostate Cancer in Chinese Men from 2003 to 2011

Background

Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening is growing in popularity in China, but its impact on biopsy characteristics and outcomes are poorly understood.

Objective

Our objective was to characterize prostate biopsy outcomes and trends in Chinese men over a 10-year period, since the increasing use of PSA tests.

Methods

All men (n = 1,650) who underwent prostate biopsy for PCa at Huashan Hospital, Shanghai, China from 2003–2011 were evaluated. Demographic and clinical information was collected for each patient, including age, digital rectal examination (DRE), transrectal ultrasound (prostate volume and nodule), total prostate-specific antigen (tPSA) levels and free PSA ratio (fPSA/tPSA) prior to biopsy. Prostate biopsy was performed using six cores before October 2007 or ten cores thereafter. Logistic regression and multivariate analysis were used to evaluate our data.

Results

The overall positive rate of prostate biopsy for PCa was 47% and the rate decreased significantly over the years from 74% in 2003 to 33% in 2011 (P-trend = 0.004) . Age at diagnosis was slightly increased (P-trend = 0.04) while fPSA/tPSA was significantly decreased (P-trend = 1.11×10-5). A statistically significant trend was not observed for tPSA levels, prostate volume, or proportion of positive nodule. The model including multiple demographic and clinical variables (i.e., age, DRE, tPSA, fPSA/tPSA and transrectal ultrasound results) (AUC = 0.93) statistically outperformed models that included only PSA (AUC = 0.85) or fPSA/tPSA (AUC = 0.66) to predict PCa risks (P<0.05). Similar results were observed in a subgroup of men whose tPSA levels were lower than 20 ng/mL (AUC = 0.87, vs. AUC of tPSA  = 0.62, P<0.05).

Conclusions

Detection rates of PCa and high-grade PCa among men that underwent prostate biopsy at the institution has decreased significantly in the past 10 years, likely due to increasing use of PSA tests. Predictive performance of demographic and clinical variables of PCa was excellent. These variables should be used in clinics to determine the need for prostate biopsy.     

Ontogenetic habitat shifts in fusiliers (Lutjanidae): evidence from Caesio cuning at Lizard Island,Great Barrier Reef

Planktivorous reef-associated fishes provide a significant nutrient input to the reef, linking pelagic and reef environments. Highly mobile and relatively large body-sized fusiliers (Lutjanidae) often dominate reef fish biomass, but their role in ecosystem processes is poorly understood. We therefore combined fish counts and behavioural observations at Lizard Island, Great Barrier Reef, to investigate: (1) the spatial distribution and biology of fusiliers on a lagoonal coral reef system, and (2) how does fusilier behaviour and size distribution change from exposed to sheltered locations. We found higher abundances of large-sized fusiliers (≥ 20 cm total length) on exposed reef sites. Sheltered sites had almost exclusively small individuals (< 20 cm total length). We interpret this pattern as indicative of an ontogenetic habitat shift. This shift was estimated to occur at about 11.15 cm total length; the size at which the likelihood of an individual being in exposed or sheltered locations was equal. The age corresponding to this length was 1.01 years, based on a von Bertalanffy growth model using size-at-age data from otolith rings of Caesio cuning, the most abundant fusilier species in this location. This suggested that the shift in distribution occurred prior to the onset of sexual maturity. This apparent ontogenetic shift to more exposed habitats with increasing size, especially in C. cuning, was also associated with a distinct behavioural profile: larger fish at the exposed sites travelled further off reef, occupied deeper habitats, and formed larger schools compared to smaller individuals. This study provides the first evidence of seascape-scale ontogenetic habitat shifts in a planktivorous reef fish, providing a foundation for future detailed analyses of the ecological roles of fusiliers.

     

Habitat-Specific Density and Diet of Rapidly Expanding Invasive Red Lionfish,Pterois volitans,Populations in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

Invasive Indo-Pacific red lionfish, Pterois volitans, were first reported in the northern Gulf of Mexico (nGOM) in summer 2010. To examine potential impacts on native reef fish communities, lionfish density and size distributions were estimated from fall 2010 to fall 2013 with a remotely operated vehicle at natural (n = 16) and artificial (n = 22) reef sites. Lionfish (n = 934) also were sampled via spearfishing to examine effects of habitat type, season, and fish size on their diet and trophic ecology. There was an exponential increase in lionfish density at both natural and artificial reefs over the study period. By fall 2013, mean lionfish density at artificial reefs (14.7 fish 100 m⁻²) was two orders of magnitude higher than at natural reefs (0.49 fish 100 m⁻²), and already was among the highest reported in the western Atlantic. Lionfish diet was significantly different among habitats, seasons, and size classes, with smaller (<250 mm total length) fish consuming more benthic invertebrates and the diet of lionfish sampled from artificial reefs being composed predominantly of non-reef associated prey. The ontogenetic shift in lionfish feeding ecology was consistent with δ¹⁵N values of white muscle tissue that were positively related to total length. Overall, diet results indicate lionfish are generalist mesopredators in the nGOM that become more piscivorous at larger size. However, lionfish diet was much more varied at artificial reef sites where they clearly were foraging on open substrates away from reef structure. These results have important implications for tracking the lionfish invasion in the nGOM, as well as estimating potential direct and indirect impacts on native reef fish communities in this region.     

Assessment of Acropora palmata in the Mesoamerican Reef System

The once-dominant shallow reef-building coral Acropora palmata has suffered drastic geographical declines in the wider Caribbean from a disease epidemic that began in the late 1970s. At present there is a lack of quantitative data to determine whether this species is recovering over large spatial scales. Here, we use quantitative surveys conducted in 107 shallow-water reef sites between 2010 and 2012 to investigate the current distribution and abundance of A. palmata along the Mesoamerican Reef System (MRS). Using historical data we also explored how the distribution and abundance of this species has changed in the northern portion of the MRS between 1985 and 2010–2012. A. palmata was recorded in only a fifth of the surveyed reef sites in 2010–2012. In the majority of these reef sites the presence of A. palmata was patchy and rare. Only one site (Limones reef), in the northernmost portion of the MRS, presented considerably high A. palmata cover (mean: 34.7%, SD: 24.5%). At this site, the size-frequency distribution of A. palmata colonies was skewed towards small colony sizes; 84% of the colonies were healthy, however disease prevalence increased with colony size. A comparison with historical data showed that in the northern portion of the MRS, in 1985, A. palmata occurred in 74% of the 31 surveyed sites and had a mean cover of 7.7% (SD = 9.0), whereas in 2010–2012 this species was recorded in 48% of the sites with a mean cover of 2.9% (SD = 7.5). A. palmata populations along the MRS are failing to recover the distribution and abundance they had prior to the 1980s. Investigating the biological (e.g., population genetics) and environmental conditions (e.g., sources of stress) of the few standing reefs with relatively high A. palmata cover is crucial for the development of informed restoration models for this species.     

Reef fish assemblage structure affected by small-scale spacing and size variations of artificial patch reefs

To examine how varying the distance between patch reefs affects reef fish assemblage structure, replicate concrete reef modules (∼ 1 m³ each) were deployed on sand bottom at 8 m depth off Ft. Lauderdale, Florida, USA (26°07N, 80°05W). Modules were positioned at the apices of one of four differently sized equilateral triangles. Triangular configurations had side lengths of: 25 m, 15 m, 5 m, and 0.33 m; each treatment with two replicates. Two additional configurations: (1) a solitary module (Single) and (2) two modules side by side (Double), also with two replicates, were deployed in order to examine the interaction of reef size with fish assemblages. SCUBA divers censused fishes monthly, for 2 years, recording the species present, their abundance and sizes (TL). Fishes were assigned to one of five length categories: < 2 cm, > 2-5 cm, > 5-10 cm, > 10-20 cm, and > 20 cm. In general and excluding the smallest three-module spacing treatment (0.33 m treatment), which may have provided unique treatment-specific refuge, total fish abundance and richness were shown to increase when isolation distance increased. However, there were also species-specific and size class differences in response to isolation distance. The second part of this study indicated varying reef size, by doubling and tripling the number of reef modules, increased total fish abundance and species richness. Nevertheless, fish abundance and species richness did not change by an identical multiplier (e.g., doubling modules ≠ double abundance). These results suggest that scientists and marine managers alike should consider reef size and isolation as habitat attributes capable of altering the structure and dynamics of reef fish assemblages.     

Geography and island geomorphology shape fish assemblage structure on isolated coral reef systems

We quantify the relative importance of multi‐scale drivers of reef fish assemblage structure on isolated coral reefs at the intersection of the Indian and Indo‐Pacific biogeographical provinces. Large (>30 cm), functionally‐important and commonly targeted species of fish, were surveyed on the outer reef crest/front at 38 coral reef sites spread across three oceanic coral reef systems (i.e. Christmas Island, Cocos (Keeling) Islands and the Rowley Shoals), in the tropical Indian Ocean (c. 1.126 x 106 km²). The effects of coral cover, exposure, fishing pressure, lagoon size and geographical context, on observed patterns of fish assemblage structure were modelled using Multivariate Regression Trees. Reef fish assemblages were clearly separated in space with geographical location explaining ~53 % of the observed variation. Lagoon size, within each isolated reef system was an equally effective proxy for explaining fish assemblage structure. Among local‐scale variables, ‘distance from port’, a proxy for the influence of fishing, explained 5.2% of total variation and separated the four most isolated reefs from Cocos (Keeling) Island, from reefs with closer boating access. Other factors were not significant. Major divisions in assemblage structure were driven by sister taxa that displayed little geographical overlap between reef systems and low abundances of several species on Christmas Island corresponding to small lagoon habitats. Exclusion of geographical context from the analysis resulted in local processes explaining 47.3% of the variation, highlighting the importance of controlling for spatial correlation to understand the drivers of fish assemblage structure. Our results suggest reef fish assemblage structure on remote coral reef systems in the tropical eastern Indian Ocean reflects a biogeographical legacy of isolation between Indian and Pacific fish faunas and geomorphological variation within the region, more than local fishing pressure or reef condition. Our findings re‐emphasise the importance that historical processes play in structuring contemporary biotic communities.     

Sun Compass Orientation Helps Coral Reef Fish Larvae Return to Their Natal Reef

Reef fish sustain populations on isolated reefs and show genetic diversity between nearby reefs even though larvae of many species are swept away from the natal site during pelagic dispersal. Retention or recruitment to natal reefs requires orientation capabilities that enable larvae to find their way. Although olfactory and acoustically based orientation has been implicated in homing when larvae are in the reef’s vicinity, it is still unclear how they cope with greater distances. Here we show evidence for a sun compass mechanism that can bring the larvae to the vicinity of their natal reef. In a circular arena, pre-settlement larvae and early settlers (<24 hours) of the cardinal fish, Ostorhinchus doederleini, showed a strong SSE directional swimming response, which most likely has evolved to compensate for the locally prevailing large scale NNW current drift. When fish were clock-shifted 6 hours, they changed their orientation by ca. 180° as predicted by the tropical sun curve at One Tree Island, i.e. they used a time-compensated sun compass. Furthermore, the fish oriented most consistently at times of the day when the sun azimuth is easy to determine. Microsatellite markers showed that the larvae that had just arrived at One Tree Island genetically belonged to either the local reef population or to Fitzroy Reef located 12 kilometers to the SSE. The use of a sun compass adds a missing long-distance link to the hierarchy of other sensory abilities that can direct larvae to the region of origin, including their natal reef. Predominant local recruitment, in turn, can contribute to genetic isolation and potential speciation.     

A Comparison of the Predictive Power of Anthropometric Indices for Hypertension and Hypotension Risk

Background and Aims

It is commonly accepted that body fat distribution is associated with hypertension, but the strongest anthropometric indicator of the risk of hypertension is still controversial. Furthermore, no studies on the association of hypotension with anthropometric indices have been reported. The objectives of the present study were to determine the best predictors of hypertension and hypotension among various anthropometric indices and to assess the use of combined indices as a method of improving the predictive power in adult Korean women and men.

Methods

For 12789 subjects 21–85 years of age, we assessed 41 anthropometric indices using statistical analyses and data mining techniques to determine their ability to discriminate between hypertension and normotension as well as between hypotension and normotension. We evaluated the predictive power of combined indices using two machine learning algorithms and two variable subset selection techniques.

Results

The best indicator for predicting hypertension was rib circumference in both women (p = <0.0001; OR = 1.813; AUC = 0.669) and men (p = <0.0001; OR = 1.601; AUC = 0.627); for hypotension, the strongest predictor was chest circumference in women (p = <0.0001; OR = 0.541; AUC = 0.657) and neck circumference in men (p = <0.0001; OR = 0.522; AUC = 0.672). In experiments using combined indices, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) for the prediction of hypertension risk in women and men were 0.721 and 0.652, respectively, according to the logistic regression with wrapper-based variable selection; for hypotension, the corresponding values were 0.675 in women and 0.737 in men, according to the naïve Bayes with wrapper-based variable selection.

Conclusions

The best indicators of the risk of hypertension and the risk of hypotension may differ. The use of combined indices seems to slightly improve the predictive power for both hypertension and hypotension.     

Seasonal Movements,Aggregations and Diving Behavior of Atlantic Bluefin Tuna (Thunnus thynnus) Revealed with Archival Tags

Electronic tags were used to examine the seasonal movements, aggregations and diving behaviors of Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) to better understand their migration ecology and oceanic habitat utilization. Implantable archival tags (n = 561) were deployed in bluefin tuna from 1996 to 2005 and 106 tags were recovered. Movement paths of the fish were reconstructed using light level and sea-surface-temperature-based geolocation estimates. To quantify habitat utilization we employed a weighted kernel estimation technique that removed the biases of deployment location and track length. Throughout the North Atlantic, high residence times (167±33 days) were identified in four spatially confined regions on a seasonal scale. Within each region, bluefin tuna experienced distinct temperature regimes and displayed different diving behaviors. The mean diving depths within the high-use areas were significantly shallower and the dive frequency and the variance in internal temperature significantly higher than during transit movements between the high-use areas. Residence time in the more northern latitude high-use areas was significantly correlated with levels of primary productivity. The regions of aggregation are associated with areas of abundant prey and potentially represent critical foraging habitats that have seasonally abundant prey. Throughout the North Atlantic mean diving depth was significantly correlated with the depth of the thermocline, and dive behavior changed in relation to the stratification of the water column. In this study, with numerous multi-year tracks, there appear to be repeatable patterns of clear aggregation areas that potentially are changing with environmental conditions. The high concentrations of bluefin tuna in predictable locations indicate that Atlantic bluefin tuna are vulnerable to concentrated fishing efforts in the regions of foraging aggregations.     

Characterization of a Subtropical Hawksbill Sea Turtle (Eretmocheyles imbricata) Assemblage Utilizing Shallow Water Natural and Artificial Habitats in the Florida Keys

In order to provide information to better inform management decisions and direct further research, vessel-based visual transects, snorkel transects, and in-water capture techniques were used to characterize hawksbill sea turtles in the shallow marine habitats of a Marine Protected Area (MPA), the Key West National Wildlife Refuge in the Florida Keys. Hawksbills were found in hardbottom and seagrass dominated habitats throughout the Refuge, and on man-made rubble structures in the Northwest Channel near Cottrell Key. Hawksbills captured (N = 82) were exclusively juveniles and subadults with a straight standard carapace length (SSCL) ranging from 21.4 to 69.0cm with a mean of 44.1 cm (SD = 10.8). Somatic growth rates were calculated from 15 recaptured turtles with periods at large ranging from 51 to 1188 days. Mean SSCL growth rate was 7.7 cm/year (SD = 4.6). Juvenile hawksbills (<50 cm SSCL) showed a significantly higher growth rate (9.2 cm/year, SD = 4.5, N = 11) than subadult hawksbills (50–70 cm SSCL, 3.6 cm/year, SD = 0.9, N = 4). Analysis of 740 base pair mitochondrial control region sequences from 50 sampled turtles yielded 12 haplotypes. Haplotype frequencies were significantly different compared to four other Caribbean juvenile foraging aggregations, including one off the Atlantic coast of Florida. Many-to-one mixed stock analysis indicated Mexico as the primary source of juveniles in the region and also suggested that the Refuge may serve as important developmental habitat for the Cuban nesting aggregation. Serum testosterone radioimmunoassay results from 33 individuals indicated a female biased sex ratio of 3.3 females: 1 male for hawksbills in the Refuge. This assemblage of hawksbills is near the northern limit of the species range, and is one of only two such assemblages described in the waters of the continental United States. Since this assemblage resides in an MPA with intensive human use, basic information on the assemblage is vital to resource managers charged with conservation and species protection in the MPA.     

Age-specific aggregation of wild juvenile Atlantic salmon Salmo salar at cool water sources during high temperature events

This study quantified the use of cool water sources by wild 0+, 1+ and 2+ year Atlantic salmon Salmo salar during high water temperatures ( i.e. >23° C) in summer 1995 and 2004. During these events, 0+ year Atlantic salmon did not aggregate or increase in abundance in cool water sites. Interestingly, 1+ and 2+ year Atlantic salmon numbers increased in cool water sites. In addition, these older juveniles formed numerous, discrete aggregations along the plume created by a tributary with aggregation locations being similar between years. Aged 2+ year fish aggregations were at the coolest sources whereas 1+ year aggregations were in locations cooler than the main river. Fish in aggregations on average used deeper sections (average depth: 380 mm) compared with the coolest available habitat in the thermal plume (average depth: 230 mm). Hence, during high temperature events, older juvenile Atlantic salmon moved to cooler water sites and then aggregated in deeper microhabitats.     

Detection of Colorectal Serrated Polyps by Stool DNA Testing: Comparison with Fecal Immunochemical Testing for Occult Blood (FIT)

Objectives

Precursors to 1/3 of colorectal cancer (CRC), serrated polyps have been under-detected by screening due to their inconspicuous, non-hemorrhagic, and proximal nature. A new multi-target stool DNA test (multi-target sDNA) shows high sensitivity for both CRC and advanced adenomas. Screen detection of serrated polyps by this approach requires further validation. We sought to assess and compare noninvasive detection of sessile serrated polyps (SSP) ≥1 cm by sDNA and an occult blood fecal immunochemical test (FIT).

Methods

In a blinded prospective study, a single stool sample used for both tests was collected from 456 asymptomatic adults prior to screening or surveillance colonoscopy (criterion standard). All 29 patients with SSP≥1 cm were included as cases and all 232 with no neoplastic findings as controls. Buffered stool samples were processed and frozen on receipt; Exact Sciences performed sDNA in batches using optimized analytical methods. The sDNA multi-marker panel targets methylated BMP3 (mBMP3) and NDRG4, mutant KRAS, β-actin, and hemoglobin. FIT (Polymedco OC-FIT Check) was performed in separate lab ≤2 days post defecation and evaluated at cutoffs of 50 (FIT-50) and 100 ng/ml (FIT-100).

Results

Median ages: cases 61 (range 57–77), controls 62 (52–70), p = NS. Women comprised 59% and 51%, p = NS, respectively. SSP median size was 1.2 cm (1–3 cm), 93% were proximal, and 64% had synchronous diminutive polyps. Among multi-target sDNA markers, mBMP3 proved highly discriminant for detection of SSP≥1 cm (AUC = 0.87, p<0.00001); other DNA markers provided no incremental sensitivity. Hemoglobin alone showed no discrimination (AUC = 0.50, p = NS). At matched specificities, detection of SSP≥1 cm by stool mBMP3 was significantly greater than by FIT-50 (66% vs 10%, p = 0.0003) or FIT-100 (63% vs 0%, p<0.0001).

Conclusions

In a screening and surveillance setting, SSP≥1 cm can be detected noninvasively by stool assay of exfoliated DNA markers, especially mBMP3. FIT appears to have no value in SSP detection.     

Immunological Profile of Silent Brain Infarction and Lacunar Stroke

Neuroinflammation is believed to be involved in the pathophysiological mechanisms of silent brain infarcts (SBI). However, the immunological profile of SBI has been scarcely investigated. In the context of a national research project named SILENCE, aimed at investigating clinical, biochemical and pathogenic features of SBI, we have measured the plasma profile of some inflammatory-related molecules in SBI patients (n = 21), patients with recent lacunar infarcts (LI, n = 28) and healthy controls (n = 31), consecutively enrolled in four Italian centres. A panel of chemokines (MIG, CTACK, IL16, SDF1a, MCP1), growth factors (SCF, SCGFb, HGF, IL3), immunoglobulin-type adhesion molecules (ICAM1, VCAM1), proinflammatory cytokines (IL18, INFa2, MIF, IL12p40), cell surface receptors on T-cells (IL2Ra), and inductors of apoptosis (TRAIL) was assessed in plasma samples by Luminex xMAP™ technology. Immunological parameters were compared using non-parametric statistics and performance to distinguish SBI and LI was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Plasma levels of ICAM1 were significantly higher in both SBI and LI patients as compared to controls (SBI≥LI>Ctrl). A different trend was observed for IL16 (SBI<LI>Ctrl), SCF (LI<SBI>Ctrl) and SCGFb (SBI>LI<Ctrl). SBI subjects had significantly increased levels of MIG when compared to controls (LI≤SBI>Ctrl) and IL18 when compared to LI patients (Ctrl≤SBI>LI). All the other immunological markers did not significantly differ among groups. According to ROC analysis, the best predictor for SBI condition was the chemokine MIG (AUC = 0.84, sensitivity 86%, specificity 77%), while SCF had the best performance in distinguishing LI patients (AUC = 0.84, sensitivity 86%, specificity 68%). These results confirm the involvement of inflammatory processes in cerebrovascular disorders, particularly in SBI, a very common age-related condition. The differences in plasma profile of inflammatory molecules may underlie different pathological mechanisms in SBI and LI patients.     

Additive Diversity Partitioning of Fish in a Caribbean Coral Reef Undergoing Shift Transition

Shift transitions in dominance on coral reefs from hard coral cover to fleshy macroalgae are having negative effects on Caribbean coral reef communities. Data on spatiotemporal changes in biodiversity during these modifications are important for decision support for coral reef biodiversity protection. The main objective of this study is to detect the spatiotemporal patterns of coral reef fish diversity during this transition using additive diversity-partitioning analysis. We examined α, β and γ fish diversity from 2000 to 2010, during which time a shift transition occurred at Mahahual Reef, located in Quintana Roo, Mexico. Data on coral reef fish and benthic communities were obtained from 12 transects per geomorphological unit (GU) in two GUs (reef slope and terrace) over six years (2000, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2010). Spatial analysis within and between the GUs indicated that the γ-diversity was primarily related to higher β-diversity. Throughout the six study years, there were losses of α, β and γ-diversity associated spatially with the shallow (reef slope) and deeper (reef terrace) GUs and temporally with the transition in cover from mound corals to fleshy macroalgae and boulder corals. Despite a drastic reduction in the number of species over time, β-diversity continues to be the highest component of γ-diversity. The shift transition had a negative effect on α, β and γ-diversity, primarily by impacting rare species, leading a group of small and less vulnerable fish species to become common and an important group of rare species to become locally extinct. The maintenance of fish heterogeneity (β-diversity) over time may imply the abetment of vulnerability in the face of local and global changes.     

Will Coral Islands Maintain Their Growth over the Next Century? A Deterministic Model of Sediment Availability at Lady Elliot Island,Great Barrier Reef

A geomorphic assessment of reef system calcification is conducted for past (3200 Ka to present), present and future (2010–2100) time periods. Reef platform sediment production is estimated at 569 m³ yr⁻¹ using rate laws that express gross community carbonate production as a function of seawater aragonite saturation, community composition and rugosity and incorporating estimates of carbonate removal from the reef system. Key carbonate producers including hard coral, crustose coralline algae and Halimeda are mapped accurately (mean R² = 0.81). Community net production estimates correspond closely to independent census-based estimates made in-situ (R² = 0.86). Reef-scale outputs are compared with historic rates of production generated from (i) radiocarbon evidence of island deposition initiation around 3200 years ago, and (ii) island volume calculated from a high resolution island digital elevation model. Contemporary carbonate production rates appear to be remarkably similar to historical values of 573 m³ yr⁻¹. Anticipated future seawater chemistry parameters associated with an RCP8.5 emissions scenario are employed to model rates of net community calcification for the period 2000–2100 on the basis of an inorganic aragonite precipitation law, under the assumption of constant benthic community character. Simulations indicate that carbonate production will decrease linearly to a level of 118 m³ yr⁻¹ by 2100 and that by 2150 aragonite saturation levels may no longer support the positive budgetary status necessary to sustain island accretion. Novel aspects of this assessment include the development of rate law parameters to realistically represent the variable composition of coral reef benthic carbonate producers, incorporation of three dimensional rugosity of the entire reef platform and the coupling of model outputs with both historical radiocarbon dating evidence and forward hydrochemical projections to conduct an assessment of island evolution through time. By combining several lines of evidence in a deterministic manner, an assessment of changes in carbonate production is carried out that has tangible geomorphic implications for sediment availability and associated island evolution.     

Diagnostic and Prognostic Impact of Circulating YKL-40, IL-6, and CA 19.9 in Patients with Pancreatic Cancer

Purpose

We tested the hypothesis that high plasma YKL-40 and IL-6 associate with pancreatic cancer and short overall survival.

Patients and Methods

In all, 559 patients with pancreatic cancer from prospective biomarker studies from Denmark (n = 448) and Germany (n = 111) were studied. Plasma YKL-40 and IL-6 were determined by ELISAs and serum CA 19.9 by chemiluminescent immunometric assay.

Results

Odds ratios (ORs) for prediction of pancreatic cancer were significant for all biomarkers, with CA 19.9 having the highest AUC (CA 19.9: OR = 2.28, 95% CI 1.97 to 2.68, p<0.0001, AUC = 0.94; YKL-40: OR = 4.50, 3.99 to 5.08, p<0.0001, AUC = 0.87; IL-6: OR = 3.68, 3.08 to 4.44, p<0.0001, AUC = 0.87). Multivariate Cox analysis (YKL-40, IL-6, CA 19.9, age, stage, gender) in patients operated on showed that high preoperative IL-6 and CA 19.9 (dichotomized according to normal values) were independently associated with short overall survival (CA 19.9: HR = 2.51, 1.22–5.15, p = 0.013; IL-6: HR = 2.03, 1.11 to 3.70, p = 0.021). Multivariate Cox analysis of non-operable patients (Stage IIB-IV) showed that high pre-treatment levels of each biomarker were independently associated with short overall survival (YKL-40: HR = 1.30, 1.03 to 1.64, p = 0.029; IL-6: HR = 1.71, 1.33 to 2.20, p<0.0001; CA 19.9: HR = 1.54, 1.06 to 2.24, p = 0.022). Patients with preoperative elevation of both IL-6 and CA 19.9 had shorter overall survival (p<0.005) compared to patients with normal levels of both biomarkers (45% vs. 92% alive after 12 months).

Conclusions

Plasma YKL-40 and IL-6 had less diagnostic impact than CA 19.9. Combination of pretreatment YKL-40, IL-6, and CA 19.9 may have clinical value to identify pancreatic cancer patients with the poorest prognosis.     

Quantifying Water Flow within Aquatic Ecosystems Using Load Cell Sensors: A Profile of Currents Experienced by Coral Reef Organisms around Lizard Island,Great Barrier Reef,Australia

Current velocity in aquatic environments has major implications for the diversity, abundance and ecology of aquatic organisms, but quantifying these currents has proven difficult. This study utilises a simple and inexpensive instrument (<$150) to provide a detailed current velocity profile of the coral-reef system around Lizard Island (Great Barrier Reef, Australia) at a spatial and temporal scale relevant to the ecology of individual benthos and fish. The instrument uses load-cell sensors to provide a correlation between sensor output and ambient current velocity of 99%. Each instrument is able to continuously record current velocities to >500 cms⁻¹ and wave frequency to >100 Hz over several weeks. Sensor data are registered and processed at 16 MHz and 10 bit resolution, with a measuring precision of 0.06±0.04%, and accuracy of 0.51±0.65% (mean ±S.D.). Each instrument is also pressure rated to 120 m and shear stresses ≤20 kNm⁻² allowing deployment in harsh environments.The instrument was deployed across 27 coral reef sites covering the crest (3 m), mid-slope (6 m) and deep-slope (9 m depth) of habitats directly exposed, oblique or sheltered from prevailing winds. Measurements demonstrate that currents over the reef slope and crest varies immensely depending on depth and exposure: Currents differ up to 9-fold within habitats only separated by 3 m depth and 15-fold between exposed, oblique and sheltered habitats. Comparisons to ambient weather conditions reveal that currents around Lizard Island are largely wind driven. Zero to 22.5 knot winds correspond directly to currents of 0 to >82 cms⁻¹, while tidal currents rarely exceed 5.5 cms⁻¹. Rather, current velocity increases exponentially as a function of wave height (0 to 1.6 m) and frequency (0.54 to 0.20 Hz), emphasizing the enormous effect of wind and waves on organisms in these shallow coral reef habitats.     

Reef sharks exhibit site-fidelity and higher relative abundance in marine reserves on the Mesoamerican Barrier Reef

Carcharhinid sharks can make up a large fraction of the top predators inhabiting tropical marine ecosystems and have declined in many regions due to intense fishing pressure. There is some support for the hypothesis that carcharhinid species that complete their life-cycle within coral reef ecosystems, hereafter referred to as “reef sharks”, are more abundant inside no-take marine reserves due to a reduction in fishing pressure (i.e., they benefit from marine reserves). Key predictions of this hypothesis are that (a) individual reef sharks exhibit high site-fidelity to these protected areas and (b) their relative abundance will generally be higher in these areas compared to fished reefs. To test this hypothesis for the first time in Caribbean coral reef ecosystems we combined acoustic monitoring and baited remote underwater video (BRUV) surveys to measure reef shark site-fidelity and relative abundance, respectively. We focused on the Caribbean reef shark (Carcharhinus perezi), the most common reef shark in the Western Atlantic, at Glover''s Reef Marine Reserve (GRMR), Belize. Acoustically tagged sharks (N = 34) were detected throughout the year at this location and exhibited strong site-fidelity. Shark presence or absence on 200 BRUVs deployed at GRMR and three other sites (another reserve site and two fished reefs) showed that the factor “marine reserve” had a significant positive effect on reef shark presence. We rejected environmental factors or site-environment interactions as predominant drivers of this pattern. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that marine reserves can benefit reef shark populations and we suggest new hypotheses to determine the underlying mechanism(s) involved: reduced fishing mortality or enhanced prey availability.