Predicting Stroke Risk Based on Health Behaviours: Development of the Stroke Population Risk Tool (SPoRT)

Background

Health behaviours, important factors in cardiovascular disease, are increasingly a focus of prevention. We appraised whether stroke risk can be accurately assessed using self-reported information focused on health behaviours.

Methods

Behavioural, sociodemographic and other risk factors were assessed in a population-based survey of 82 259 Ontarians who were followed for a median of 8.6 years (688 000 person-years follow-up) starting in 2001. Predictive algorithms for 5-year incident stroke resulting in hospitalization were created and then validated in a similar 2007 survey of 28 605 respondents (median 4.2 years follow-up).

Results

We observed 3 236 incident stroke events (1 551 resulting in hospitalization; 1 685 in the community setting without hospital admission). The final algorithms were discriminating (C-stat: 0.85, men; 0.87, women) and well-calibrated (in 65 of 67 subgroups for men; 61 of 65 for women). An index was developed to summarize cumulative relative risk of incident stroke from health behaviours and stress. For men, each point on the index corresponded to a 12% relative risk increase (180% risk difference, lowest (0) to highest (9) scores). For women, each point corresponded to a 14% relative risk increase (340% difference, lowest (0) to highest (11) scores). Algorithms for secondary stroke outcomes (stroke resulting in death; classified as ischemic; excluding transient ischemic attack; and in the community setting) had similar health behaviour risk hazards.

Conclusion

Incident stroke can be accurately predicted using self-reported information focused on health behaviours. Risk assessment can be performed with population health surveys to support population health planning or outside of clinical settings to support patient-focused prevention.     

The Development of a Plant Risk Evaluation (PRE) Tool for Assessing the Invasive Potential of Ornamental Plants

Weed Risk Assessment (WRA) methods for evaluating invasiveness in plants have evolved rapidly in the last two decades. Many WRA tools exist, but none were specifically designed to screen ornamental plants prior to being released into the environment. To be accepted as a tool to evaluate ornamental plants for the nursery industry, it is critical that a WRA tool accurately predicts non-invasiveness without falsely categorizing them as invasive. We developed a new Plant Risk Evaluation (PRE) tool for ornamental plants. The 19 questions in the final PRE tool were narrowed down from 56 original questions from existing WRA tools. We evaluated the 56 WRA questions by screening 21 known invasive and 14 known non-invasive ornamental plants. After statistically comparing the predictability of each question and the frequency the question could be answered for both invasive and non-invasive species, we eliminated questions that provided no predictive power, were irrelevant in our current model, or could not be answered reliably at a high enough percentage. We also combined many similar questions. The final 19 remaining PRE questions were further tested for accuracy using 56 additional known invasive plants and 36 known non-invasive ornamental species. The resulting evaluation demonstrated that when “needs further evaluation” classifications were not included, the accuracy of the model was 100% for both predicting invasiveness and non-invasiveness. When “needs further evaluation” classifications were included as either false positive or false negative, the model was still 93% accurate in predicting invasiveness and 97% accurate in predicting non-invasiveness, with an overall accuracy of 95%. We conclude that the PRE tool should not only provide growers with a method to accurately screen their current stock and potential new introductions, but also increase the probability of the tool being accepted for use by the industry as the basis for a nursery certification program.     

Development and Validation of a Novel Tool to Predict Hospital Readmission Risk Among Patients with Diabetes

Objective: To develop and validate a tool to predict the risk of all-cause readmission within 30 days (30-d readmission) among hospitalized patients with diabetes.Methods: A cohort of 44,203 discharges was retrospectively selected from the electronic records of adult patients with diabetes hospitalized at an urban academic medical center. Discharges of 60% of the patients (n = 26,402) were randomly selected as a training sample to develop the index. The remaining 40% (n = 17,801) were selected as a validation sample. Multivariable logistic regression with generalized estimating equations was used to develop the Diabetes Early Readmission Risk Indicator (DERRI™).Results: Ten statistically significant predictors were identified: employment status; living within 5 miles of the hospital; preadmission insulin use; burden of macrovascular diabetes complications; admission serum hematocrit, creatinine, and sodium; having a hospital discharge within 90 days before admission; most recent discharge status up to 1 year before admission; and a diagnosis of anemia. Discrimination of the model was acceptable (C statistic 0.70), and calibration was good. Characteristics of the validation and training samples were similar. Performance of the DERRI™ in the validation sample was essentially unchanged (C statistic 0.69). Mean predicted 30-d readmission risks were also similar between the training and validation samples (39.3% and 38.7% in the highest quintiles).Conclusion: The DERRI™ was found to be a valid tool to predict all-cause 30-d readmission risk of individual patients with diabetes. The identification of high-risk patients may encourage the use of interventions targeting those at greatest risk, potentially leading to better outcomes and lower healthcare costs.Abbreviations:DERRI™ = Diabetes Early Readmission Risk IndicatorICD-9-CM = International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical ModificationGEE = generalized estimating equationsROC = receiver operating characteristic     

Identifying Uncertainty in Environmental Risk Assessments: The Development of a Novel Typology and Its Implications for Risk Characterization

Environmental risk analysts need to draw from a clear typology of uncertainties when qualifying risk estimates and/or significance statements about risk. However, categorizations of uncertainty within existing typologies are largely overlapping, contradictory, and subjective, and many typologies are not designed with environmental risk assessments (ERAs) in mind. In an attempt to rectify these issues, this research provides a new categorization of uncertainties based, for the first time, on the appraisal of a large subset of ERAs, namely 171 peer-reviewed environmental weight-of-evidence assessments. Using this dataset, a defensible typology consisting of seven types of uncertainty (data, language, system, extrapolation, variability, model, and decision) and 20 related sub-types is developed. Relationships between uncertainties and the techniques used to manage them are also identified and statistically evaluated. A highly preferred uncertainty management option is to take no action when faced with uncertainty, although where techniques are applied they are commensurate with the uncertainty in question. Key observations are applied in the form of guidance for dealing with uncertainty, demonstrated through ERAs of genetically modified higher plants in the European Union. The presented typology and accompanying guidance will have positive implications for the identification, prioritization, and management of uncertainty during risk characterization.     

Engineered Heart Tissue: A Novel Tool to Study the Ischemic Changes of the Heart In Vitro

Background

Understanding the basic mechanisms and prevention of any disease pattern lies mainly on development of a successful experimental model. Recently, engineered heart tissue (EHT) has been demonstrated to be a useful tool in experimental transplantation. Here, we demonstrate a novel function for the spontaneously contracting EHT as an experimental model in studying the acute ischemia-induced changes in vitro.

Methodology/Principal Findings

EHT was constructed by mixing cardiomyocytes isolated from the neonatal rats and cultured in a ring-shaped scaffold for five days. This was followed by mechanical stretching of the EHT for another one week under incubation. Fully developed EHT was subjected to hypoxia with 1% O₂ for 6 hours after treating them with cell protective agents such as cyclosporine A (CsA) and acetylcholine (ACh). During culture, EHT started to show spontaneous contractions that became more synchronous following mechanical stretching. This was confirmed by the increased expression of gap junctional protein connexin 43 and improved action potential recordings using an optical mapping system after mechanical stretching. When subjected to hypoxia, EHT demonstrated conduction defects, dephosphorylation of connexin-43, and down-regulation of cell survival proteins identical to the adult heart. These effects were inhibited by treating the EHT with cell protective agents.

Conclusions/Significance

Under hypoxic conditions, the EHT responds similarly to the adult myocardium, thus making EHT a promising material for the study of cardiac functions in vitro.     

多标记物法在心力衰竭风险评估中的应用

心力衰竭的发生发展涉及多条生理病理通路,选择不同通路中的多个生物标记物能够提高对心力衰竭风险评估的准确性。总结了心 力衰竭发生发展过程中与心肌损伤、内皮功能障碍、神经激素紊乱、炎症反应、氧化应激过程相关的生物标记物,基于多标记物评价方法 的数学模型及多标记物法在心力衰竭和药物心脏毒性风险评估中的应用。     

LCZ-696——值得关注的重磅抗心衰药物

LCZ-696是诺华公司开发、由血管紧张素受体阻滞剂缬沙坦和脑啡肽酶阻断剂sacubitril组成的抗心衰复方新药,因具有对 血管紧张素受体-脑啡肽酶的双重抑制作用,在临床试验中其对心衰患者展现出卓越疗效,尤其在改善生存率方面更是凸显优势。介绍 LCZ-696的临床开发和主要疗效以及后期开发计划、市场前景展望、面临的挑战等。     

Secreted Frizzled Related Protein 3 in Chronic Heart Failure: Analysis from the Controlled Rosuvastatin Multinational Trial in Heart Failure (CORONA)

Background

We have previously demonstrated an association between increased sFRP3 expression and adverse outcome in a population of HF irrespective of cause and left ventricular ejection fraction. In this study we evaluated the prognostic value of sFRP3 in older patients with chronic systolic HF of ischemic origin.

Methods

We evaluated sFRP3, by tertiles, as a risk factor for the primary endpoint (cardiovascular [CV] mortality, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke), all-cause mortality, CV mortality, death from worsening HF (WHF), any coronary event, including sudden death, as well as hospitalizations for CV causes and WHF in 1444 patients from the CORONA population, randomly assigned to 10 mg rosuvastatin or placebo.

Results

Kaplan-Meier curves for the primary endpoint, as well as all-cause- and CV mortality revealed a markedly better survival for patients with sFRP3 levels in the middle tertile of compared to the 1^st and 3^rd tertile. In multivariable Cox-regression, after full adjustment including high-sensitive CRP and NT-proBNP, a lower event rate for the primary end point, all cause and CV mortality was observed for patients with tertile 2 sFRP3 levels (HR 0.57 [0.44–0.74], 0.55 [0.44–0.74] and 0.52 [0.39–0.69]; p<0.001), as well as for the number of coronary events (HR 0.62 [0.47–0.82], p = 0.001) and sudden death (HR 0.55 [0.37–0.82], p = 0.002). Applying sFRP3 values to the fully adjusted regression model resulted in highly significant continuous net reclassification improvements for the primary endpoint, all cause and CV mortality, coronary events and sudden death (range 0.24–0.31; p≤0.002 for all).

Conclusions

Intermediate serum sFRP3 levels are associated with better survival and fewer CV events than low or high sFRP3 levels, independently of conventional risk factors, in older patients with chronic systolic HF of ischemic origin. Our study suggests that balanced Wnt activity might confer protective effects in a clinical HF setting.

Trial Registration

http://www.clinicaltrials.gov NCT00206310     

The Development of a Novel High Throughput Computational Tool for Studying Individual and Collective Cellular Migration

Understanding how cells migrate individually and collectively during development and cancer metastasis can be significantly aided by a computation tool to accurately measure not only cellular migration speed, but also migration direction and changes in migration direction in a temporal and spatial manner. We have developed such a tool for cell migration researchers, named Pathfinder, which is capable of simultaneously measuring the migration speed, migration direction, and changes in migration directions of thousands of cells both instantaneously and over long periods of time from fluorescence microscopy data. Additionally, we demonstrate how the Pathfinder software can be used to quantify collective cell migration. The novel capability of the Pathfinder software to measure the changes in migration direction of large populations of cells in a spatiotemporal manner will aid cellular migration research by providing a robust method for determining the mechanisms of cellular guidance during individual and collective cell migration.     

Cardioprotection by Aldosterone Receptor Antagonism in Heart Failure: 1. The Role of Aldosterone in Heart Failure

In recent years, understanding of the role of aldosterone has expanded beyond the known classic effects of promoting renal sodium retention and potassium and magnesium loss. It is now well documented that aldosterone causes myocardial and perivascular fibrosis, blocks the myocardial uptake of norepinephrine, and increases plasminogen activator inhibitor levels. In conjunction with angiotensin II, aldosterone causes vascular damage, endothelial dysfunction, and decreased vascular compliance. Thus, the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS) plays a major role in the development of both hypertension and heart failure and is, therefore, a key target for therapeutic interventions. Commonly prescribed medications for control of hypertension and congestive heart failure are inhibitors of the RAAS, including angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors (ACE-Is) and angiotensin II (A-II) receptor antagonists. A well-documented increase in aldosterone levels occurs over several months during chronic treatment with an ACE-I or an A-II receptor antagonist. Such suppression of circulating aldosterone, however, is transient, as exemplified by the term “escape” used to describe the phenomenon. This rebound of aldosterone even occurs when patients receive both an ACE-I and an A-II receptor antagonist. In addition, ACE-Is and A-II receptor antagonists are less effective in controlling blood pressure in the estimated 60% of hypertensive patients who are salt- (volume-) sensitive and more prone to hypertension-associated morbidity, such as black patients and type 2 diabetics. Thus, chronic and complete blockade of aldosterone action requires an aldosterone receptor antagonist. The Randomized Aldactone Evaluation Study (RALES) trial results in patients with severe heart failure (New York Heart Association class III or IV) and a left ventricular ejection fraction of no more than 35% showed that administration of a subhemodynamic dose of spironolactone (25 mg/day) as an add-on therapy to ACE-Is plus standard treatment resulted in a significant mortality reduction due to decreases in both death from progressive heart failure and sudden cardiac death. These findings support the pivotal role of aldosterone in the pathophysiology of progressive heart failure. Although it is an effective antialdosterone agent, widespread use of spironolactone in humans is limited by its tendency to produce undesirable sexual side effects. At standard doses, impotence and gynecomastia can be induced in men, whereas premenopausal women may experience menstrual disturbances. Data on a selective aldosterone receptor antagonist, eplerenone, show that it appears promising for the effective blockade of aldosterone and its harmful effects without the sexual disturbances of spironolactone. Recently, eplerenone was successfully introduced for the treatment of hypertension and heart failure. A growing number of experimental studies are finding a broader role for aldosterone in driving the pathophysiology of both heart failure and hypertension. When added to conventional therapy, aldosterone receptor blockers show benefits in addition to those conferred by ACE-Is and/or A-II receptor blockers.     

Waist Circumference as a Screening Tool for Cardiovascular Risk Factors: Evaluation of Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC)

To evaluate the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) to determine the cutoffs of waist circumference as a potential population directed screening tool for hypercholesterolaemia (≥6.5 mmol/L), low high density lipoprotein cholesterol (<0.9 mmol/L), and hypertension (treated and/or systolic ≥160 and/or diastolic blood pressure ≥95 mmHg), in 2183 men and 2698 women aged 20 to 59 years selected at random from Dutch civil registries. Main outcome measures: Height, weight, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, total plasma cholesterol and high density lipoprotein cholesterol concentrations, and blood pressure. Results: ROC curves showed that sensitivity equalled specificity at waist circumferences between 93–95 cm in men and 81–84 cm in women for identifying individual risk factors, and 92 cm in men and 81 cm in women for identifying those with at least one risk factor. Sensitivity and specificity were equal at levels between 61% to 69% for identifying individual risk factors, with positive predictions (56.8% in men and 37.8% in women) within 2% of those using previously defined ‘Action Level 1’ of waist circumference 94 cm in men and 80 cm in women (58.8% in men and 37.4% in women). Risk prediction by anthropometric methods was relatively low: ROC areas for identifying each risk factor by waist varied from 55% to 60%, and reached about 65% for identifying at least one risk factor. Height accounted for less than 03% of variance in waist circumference. Using BMI at 25 kg/m² gave similar prediction to waist, but its combination with waist did not improve predictive values. Conclusions: Measurement of waist circumference ‘Action Level 1’ at 94 cm (37 inches) in men and 80 cm (32 inches) in women could be adopted as a simpler valid alternative to BMI for health promotion, to alert those at risk of cardiovascular disease, and as a guide to risk avoidance by self-weight management     

扩张型心肌病合并充血性心力衰竭的相关因素Logistic 分析

目的:寻找扩张型心肌病(DCM)合并充血性心力衰竭(CHF)的独立危险因素,为临床预防和治疗扩心病患者的病情提供依据。方法:选择我院收治的扩张型心肌病患者125例,按照NYHA分级分组,将心功能Ⅱ-Ⅳ级同时左心室射血分数(LVEF)<40%的患者91例定义为观察组;将心功能Ⅰ级同时左心室射血分数≥40%的患者34例定义为对照组。在比较两组临床资料的基础上,采用logistic多因素分析方法确立扩张型心肌病合并心力衰竭的独立危险因素。结果:单因素分析结果发现,观察组中的"房颤"及"脉压≥70mmHg"这两个参数比对照组的数量明显增多,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。logistic多因素分析发现"脉压≥70mmHg"、"房颤"是扩心病合并心力衰竭的独立危险因素。结论:"脉压≥70mmHg"、"房颤"是扩张型心肌病合并充血性心力衰竭的独立危险因素,需要在临床治疗扩心病患者时警惕这两项指标的异常。     

Heart Failure in a Cohort of Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease: The GCKD Study

ConclusionsThe burden of self-reported and Gothenburg HF among patients with CKD is high. The proportion of patients who meet the criteria for Gothenburg HF in a European cohort of patients with moderate CKD is more than twice as high as the prevalence of self-reported HF. However, because of the shared signs, symptoms and medications of HF and CKD, the Gothenburg score cannot be used to reliably define HF in CKD patients. Our results emphasize the need for early screening for HF in patients with CKD.