El Niño and related monsoon drought signals in 523-year-long ring width records of teak (Tectona grandis L.F.) trees from south India

We present a 523-year (A.D. 1481–2003) tree-ring width index chronology of Teak (Tectona grandis L.F.) from Kerala, Southern India, prepared from three forest sites. Dendroclimatological investigations indicate a significant positive relationship between the tree-ring index series and Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and related global parameters like the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). A higher frequency of occurrence of low tree growth is observed in years of deficient Indian monsoon rainfall (droughts) associated with El Niño since the late 18th century. Prior to that time, many low tree growth years are detected during known El Niño events, probably related to deficient Indian monsoon rainfall. The general relationship between ISMR and El Niño is known to be negative and the spatial correlations between our Kerala tree-ring chronology and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the Niño regions follow similar patterns as those for ISMR. This relationship indicates strong ENSO-related monsoon signals in the tree-ring records. These tree-ring chronologies with a high degree of sensitivity to monsoon climate are useful tools to understand the vagaries of monsoon rainfall prior to the period of recorded data.     

江西大岗山地区7-9月降水量的重建与分析

根据江西大岗山地区4个采样点的马尾松年轮样本,建立了本地区的综合年轮年表,分析了马尾松径向生长与气候因子变化的相关及响应关系,发现大岗山地区树木径向生长受生长季7—9月降水量影响较显著,呈负相关关系。在响应分析的基础上,首次重建了大岗山地区1892年以来7—9月的降水量,交叉检验表明重建序列是可靠的。重建结果表明,大岗山地区7—9月份降水变化在过去的117年中总体经历了3个偏干时期：1895—1902年,1908—1926年和1944—1985年,和3个偏湿阶段：1903—1907年,1927—1943年及1986—2008年。重建的降水量序列在1921年,1937年及1977年发生明显的方差突变,表明百年以来该地区降水量变化趋势存在阶段性变化。     

A 2917-year tree-ring-based reconstruction of precipitation for the Buerhanbuda Mts., Southeastern Qaidam Basin,China

In this study, we developed the tree-ring width chronology for the period of 1404 BCE to 2015 CE using Qilian juniper (Sabina przewalskii Kom.) trees collected from the Buerhanbuda Mts. in the southeastern Qaidam Basin (QB) near Nuomuhong Village, Qinghai Province. This is the first and longest chronology to date in this region. Based on the relationships between the tree-ring width chronology and climate data, the annual precipitation from previous July to current June (July-June) was reconstructed for the past 2917 years from 902 BCE to 2015 CE. This reconstruction accounted for 47.9% of the total variance in the actual July-June precipitation in the calibration period (1957–2015). The full reconstruction captured distinct wet and dry variability, and contained evidence of some low-frequency climate signals. We identified 13 wet and 12 dry periods, of which 1443–1503 CE and 1789–1836 CE were the two longest dry periods. General agreements in the low-frequency variations between the July-June precipitation and other moisture-sensitive records for the northeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP) suggested that the reconstruction in this study represented a regional signal. Spatial correlations with gridded precipitation data also indicated that the reconstructed July-June precipitation could adequately represent climate fluctuations over a large area of the northeastern TP. The new tree-ring width chronology and precipitation reconstruction are important for understanding natural climate change in the southeastern QB.     

High-elevation tree-ring record of 263-year summer temperature for a cold-arid region in the western Himalaya,India

The unavailability of weather records from the orography dominated high Himalayas restricts our understanding in long term perspective. However, remote high-altitude regions of Himalaya silently testify the regional climate and can provide valuable insights of real climatic challenges in the absence of instrumental observatories. The tree-species over such high-altitude regions with negligible anthropogenic pressure have the potential to reveal the clear climate upheavals in long-term perspective. In the present study tree-ring samples of Himalayan birch from a high-altitude cold-arid region of Lahaul-Spiti, Himachal Pradesh were analysed and two ring-width chronologies were developed. The response function analyses showed direct relationship between the summer temperature and ring-width chronologies of Himalayan birch. Using the relationship we have reconstructed mean summer temperature (June-July) back to AD 1752 for the Lahaul-Spiti region of Himachal Pradesh. We have developed the first record of summer temperature from the Indian western Himalaya using tree-ring-width chronologies that have direct relationship with summer temperature. Further, our study in accordance with instrumental as well as other tree-ring based summer temperature records suggested that the high-altitude western Himalaya is not warming unprecedently during summers. However, slight warming pattern have been observed in the summer temperature in the later part of the reconstruction. The temperature reconstruction also reflects strong spatial correlation with gridded temperature for the western Himalaya.     

Dry/wet variations in the eastern Tien Shan (China) since AD 1725 based on Schrenk spruce (Picea schrenkiana Fisch. et Mey) tree rings

Cores of Schrenk spruce from seven sites of eastern Tien Shan were used to develop a regional tree-ring chronology to extend the climate record. We developed an August–July Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) reconstruction that spans AD 1725–2013 based on the regional tree-ring chronology. The reconstruction model accounts for 45.3% of the SPEI variance from 1959 to 2013. The SPEI reconstruction agrees reasonably well with the dry and wet periods previously estimated from tree rings in northern Xinjiang. The correlation analysis revealed that temperature plays an important role in regional drought variability, and some extreme wet years also coincide with the volcanic eruptions.     

Tree-ring-based reconstruction of drought variability (1792–2011) in the middle reaches of the Fen River,North China

We developed a tree-ring chronology based on 52 ring-width series from 25 Pinus tabulaeformis trees at Tianlong Mountain (TLM) using the signal-free method. TLM is located in the middle reaches of the Fen River, North China, and is influenced by the East Asian monsoon system. Tree growth was highly correlated (0.789) with the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from May to July and indicated a drought-stress growth pattern. Therefore, we developed a robust May-July PDSI reconstruction for 1792–2011 that explained 62.3% of the instrumental variance for 1951–2005. Severe drought years determined by the reconstruction are consistent with conditions reported in historical documents. The TLM PDSI reconstruction was consistent with other tree-ring-based hydroclimate reconstructions in North China; thus, it may accurately represent dry/wet changes that occur over a large area. Cyclical spectral peaks at 2–8 years in the reconstructed PDSI may indicate ENSO activity, as suggested by the positive correlation with the western Pacific sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and the negative correlation with the eastern Pacific SSTs on the inter-annual scale.     

May–June drought reconstruction over the past 821 years on the south-central Tibetan Plateau derived from tree-ring width series

Knowledge of drought variability and their possible mechanisms during the past hundred years is still limited in the mountainous region of south-central Tibetan Plateau (TP). In this study, a long-term tree-ring width chronology dating back to 1190 CE was combined using 328 increment cores from the Nagqu region. Based on the relationships between this tree-ring width chronology and climate data, we reconstructed May–June self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) for the past 821 years (1190–2010 CE). Additional comparisons with other available precipitation or drought reconstructions were conducted. We further investigated the influence of the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) on the drought variability in our study region. Results indicated that our tree-ring width chronology contained stable drought signal in the early summer season (May–June). During the past 821 years, the longest dry and wet periods lasted for 116 and 90 years, respectively, based on a 21-year Fast Fourier transform filter. Specifically, longer than ten years’ dry periods prevailed during 1211–1245 CE, 1280–1358, 1421–1471, 1500–1571, 1580–1598, 1650–1691, 1782–1807 and 1867–1982; while wet intervals occurred in 1190–1210 CE, 1246–1279, 1359–1420, 1472–1499, 1599–1649, 1692–1781, 1808–1866 and 1983–2010. Generally consistent dry and wet intervals across the southern TP were found by comparisons with other available datasets during their common periods. Interestingly, we detected an unstable influence of the SASM on the May–June drought variability in our study region, at least for the past three and a half centuries. This study therefore gives a new perspective of drought variability as well as their relationships with the SASM over a long-term period on the south-central TP.     

基于油松树轮重建晋东南地区近296年来1—6月降水变化

区域历史气候变化研究受观测数据限制,不利于认识长时间尺度上气候变化情况。本研究采用山西省东南部油松树轮样芯,建立采样区树轮年表,分析降水变化与树轮宽度年表之间的关联。结果表明: 树轮差值年表(RES)与1—6月的降水量变化有较好的相关性,(r=0.636,n=59,P<0.01)。采用线性回归方法分析山西省东南部区域1724—2019年1—6月的降水重建序列,方差解释量为40.4%,经检验重建方程稳定可靠。对降水重建序列特征分析表明,1724—2019年存在10个极端干旱年和6个极端湿润年,经历了6次干旱期(1742—1771、1830—1848、1872—1894、1917—1945、1961—1981和1990—2019年)、4次湿润期(1727—1741、1772—1829、1849—1871和1895—1916年)。最长干旱期为1742—1771、1990—2019年,最长湿润期为1772—1829年。对于过去296年,降水变化序列存在2.3、3.2～3.3、3.7～3.8、6.3～6.7和8.3～8.7年周期变化特征,其中2.3年的周期与“准两年脉动”周期重合,3.2～3.3、3.7～3.8和6.3～6.7年的周期可能与厄尔尼诺和南方涛动的变化存在一定关系。空间相关分析表明,重建降水序列能够较好地代表研究区域范围的降水变化。     

Climate signal shift under the influence of prevailing climate warming – Evidence from Quercus liaotungensis on Dongling Mountain,Beijing, China

Increasing climate warming is inducing drought stress and resulting in forest growth decline in many places around the world. The recent climate of northern China has shown trends of both warming and drying. In this study, we obtained tree ring width chronology of Quercus liaotungensis Koidz. from Dongling Mountain, Beijing, China. We divided the temperature series of the study area into cooling (1940–1969) and warming intervals (1970–2016). The climate–tree growth response analysis showed that temperature exerted a limiting impact on the annual radial growth of Q. liaotungensis during the cooling period, whereas the influence of temperature was lower during the warming period. The moving correlation analysis showed that the influence of summer temperature decreased with the warming climate since the 1970s, and that the influence of winter and spring temperatures decreased since the 2000s. The correlation values between the chronology and precipitation decreased during the cooling period, whereas spring and early summer precipitation correlations began to increase in the 1970s and reached significance (p < 0.05) in the 1990s. Our results show that the positive influence of temperature on radial growth of Q. liaotungensis in the study area has weakened, whereas precipitation has become the dominant regulator with climate warming. These findings suggest that forest growth on Dongling Mountain will decline if climate warming continues in the future.     

The Extratropical Northern Hemisphere Temperature Reconstruction during the Last Millennium Based on a Novel Method

Large-scale climate history of the past millennium reconstructed solely from tree-ring data is prone to underestimate the amplitude of low-frequency variability. In this paper, we aimed at solving this problem by utilizing a novel method termed “MDVM”, which was a combination of the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and variance matching techniques. We compiled a set of 211 tree-ring records from the extratropical Northern Hemisphere (30–90°N) in an effort to develop a new reconstruction of the annual mean temperature by the MDVM method. Among these dataset, a number of 126 records were screened out to reconstruct temperature variability longer than decadal scale for the period 850–2000 AD. The MDVM reconstruction depicted significant low-frequency variability in the past millennium with evident Medieval Warm Period (MWP) over the interval 950–1150 AD and pronounced Little Ice Age (LIA) cumulating in 1450–1850 AD. In the context of 1150-year reconstruction, the accelerating warming in 20^th century was likely unprecedented, and the coldest decades appeared in the 1640s, 1600s and 1580s, whereas the warmest decades occurred in the 1990s, 1940s and 1930s. Additionally, the MDVM reconstruction covaried broadly with changes in natural radiative forcing, and especially showed distinct footprints of multiple volcanic eruptions in the last millennium. Comparisons of our results with previous reconstructions and model simulations showed the efficiency of the MDVM method on capturing low-frequency variability, particularly much colder signals of the LIA relative to the reference period. Our results demonstrated that the MDVM method has advantages in studying large-scale and low-frequency climate signals using pure tree-ring data.     

Climatic potential of δ18O of Abies spectabilis from the Nepal Himalaya

A 50-year tree-ring δ¹⁸O chronology of Abies spectabilis growing close to the tree line (3850 m asl) in the Nepal Himalaya is established to explore its dendroclimatic potential. Response function analysis with ambient climatic records revealed that tree-ring δ¹⁸O is primarily governed by rainfall during the monsoon season (June–September), and the regression model accounts for 35% of the variance in rainfall. Extreme dry years identified in instrumental weather data are detected in the δ¹⁸O chronology. Further, tree-ring δ¹⁸O is much more sensitive to rainfall fluctuations than other tree-ring parameters such as width and density typically used in dendroclimatology. Correlation analyses with Niño 3.4 SST reveal time-dependent behavior of ENSO–monsoon relationships.     

A millennium-long tree-ring chronology of Sabina przewalskii on northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Long tree-ring records on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) are important for understanding better the Asian monsoon variability and its linkage with other global climate systems such as El Niño/Southern Oscillation activities. Here we report a 1017-year tree-ring chronology of Sabina przewalskii Kom. from the northeastern QTP. Climate–growth response function and correlation analyses show that radial growth of Sabina trees is positively associated with total precipitation in May and June of the growth year. Multidecadal variation in Delingha tree-ring chronology exhibits similar pattern with those of Dulan and Wulan chronologies of the nearby areas, suggesting that spring precipitation is a major factor limiting the growth of Sabina trees over a large spatial scale. Corresponding to the Little Ice Age, the three chronologies indicate spring droughts during 1440s to mid-1510s, mid-1640s to 1720s, late 1780s to late 1820s, and around mid-1870s. Examination of the tree-ring record in two largest historically documented El Niño events of 1789–93 and 1877–79 reveals that these very strong El Niño events were associated with conditions of spring droughts, and weakening of pre-monsoon circulation may precede occurrence of El Niño in some cases. The relationship between reduced monsoonal precipitation and very strong El Niño activity is, however, much complex and worth further study by spatio-temporal expansion of data coverage in the future.     

Tree growth and its association with climate between individual tree-ring series at three mountain ranges in north central China

Individual tree-ring series may show changed growth trends and divergent climate–growth associations even within a site, highlighting the need to examine tree growth and its climate association before building a chronology. We provided a case study for the stratification and temporal variability of tree growth and its climate associations of individual cores for three mountain ranges in north central China. Tree growth is mainly limited by moisture conditions in previous July–September and current June–August. Repeated sampling and field investigations of Picea wilsonii at Xinglong Mountain over a growth year of 2004 suggested that the growing season is from about the end of April to the end of September. It appears that the moisture conditions in previous and current growing seasons are crucial for tree growth in this region. However, a decrease in drought limitation was observed for a few tree-ring series. We thereby built the pooled chronology and sub-site chronologies with only drought-sensitive tree rings similar climate–growth relationships from the three mountain slopes. Growth disturbances of tree-ring series are detected by checking the occurrence of successively low values of the biweight series, which are treated by fitting a flexible curve.     

Different climate responses of spruce and pine growth in Northern European Russia

We report new data on tree-ring growth in northern European Russia, a region with a hitherto relatively sparse tree-ring network. We explore its associations with climate variability. Areas, sampling locations and trees were selected for representativeness rather than climate sensitivity. Using tree rings from 651 conifers from six widely dispersed areas we show strong intercorrelation between trees within each major conifer species within and between areas. Regional composite tree-ring series for spruce and pine contain a major fraction of decadal and multidecadal variability. The most likely driver of this common variability is interannual to multidecadal climate variability. Gridded monthly instrumental climate data for the period 1902–2008, particularly mean temperature and total precipitation, were tested as predictors of each local species-specific tree-ring site chronology. The most consistent pattern emerged for spruce at all but the southernmost area. Cool and moist summers the year before growth were consistent drivers of spruce ring growth throughout the period, with no change in recent decades. Self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index for prior summer was also a strong and consistent driver of spruce ring growth. For pine, there was a weaker but similarly stable association between larger rings and warm, moist conditions, in this case in the current summer. These associations were also identified at multidecadal time scales, particularly for spruce. On the other hand, the specific role of moisture variability in determining interannual to multidecadal variability in tree growth in this high latitude region raises questions about the relative vulnerability of spruce and pine there under global warming.     

Multi-Proxy Temperature Reconstruction from the West Qinling Mountains,China, for the Past 500 Years

A total of 290 tree-ring samples, collected from six sites in the West Qinling Mountains of China, were used to develop six new standard tree-ring chronologies. In addition, 73 proxy records were assembled in collaboration with Chinese and international scholars, from 27 publically available proxy records and 40 tree-ring chronologies that are not available in public datasets. These records were used to reconstruct annual mean temperature variability in the West Qinling Mountains over the past 500 years (AD 1500–1995), using a modified point-by-point regression (hybrid PPR) method. The results demonstrate that the hybrid PPR method successfully integrates the temperature signals from different types of proxies, and that the method preserves a high degree of low-frequency variability. The reconstruction shows greater temperature variability in the West Qinling Mountains than has been found in previous studies. Our temperature reconstruction for this region shows: 1) five distinct cold periods, at approximately AD 1520–1535, AD 1560–1575, AD 1610–1620, AD 1850–1875 and AD 1965–1985, and four warm periods, at approximately AD 1645–1660, AD 1705–1725, AD 1785–1795 and AD 1920–1945; 2) that in this region, the 20^th century was not the warmest period of the past 500 years; and 3) that a dominant and persistent oscillation of ca. 64 years is significantly identified in the 1640–1790 period.     

Assessing cross-datable distinct annual growth rings in non-native Pinus kesiya Royle ex Gordon in Zambia

The response of non-native forest plantation trees to climate change remains poorly understood.We hypothesized that precipitation and temperature modulate tree-ring width chronology at each site and that higher tree growth is exhibited at remote sites than sites near copper mines. This study investigates if the annual tree-ring boundaries in non-native Pinus kesiya Royle ex Gordon in Zambia are distinct, cross-datable, and coherent with climate signal. We collected increment cores from live trees and climate data near and further away from emission sources and developed site tree-ring width chronologies. Based on cross-dating and chronology building statistics (i.e., ESP > 0.85; Glk > 0.6 and series inter-correlation > 0.4), P. kesiya posses cross-datable distinct annual growth ring boundaries that exhibited a high climate signal at both sites. The tree-ring width chronology was positively modulated by precipitation and negatively by solar radiation and temperature. The dry season precipitation was the limiting factor for the growth of P. kesiya. The predicted decrease in dry season precipitation and increase in temperature and solar radiation may reduce tree growth of P. kesiya, reduce productivity, and extend the rotation age. The mean ring width in P. kesiya was not significantly (p = 0.296) different between sites. However, the mean basal area increment at the site near the emission source (Ichimpe) was significantly (p < 0.001) higher than at the remote site (Chati), suggesting site-specific influences that require investigation. We recommend evaluating the causes and consequences of tree growth variation between sites and their relation to environmental variation, including microclimate, soils, and pollution. In this regard, an assessment of site-specific ring-width chronology and tree growth variation in this study directly contributes to an improved understanding of non-native P. kesiya ecology, and it offers the potential to study trees' responses to edaphic and climatic factors. Knowing these responses deepens our understanding of non-native pine tree growth in the face of climate change, given the significant role of tropical forests in the global carbon cycle.     

Rain in the desert; A precipitation reconstruction of the last 156 years inferred from Aleppo Pine in the Bardenas Natural Park,Spain

Understanding the regional hydroclimatic variability beyond the instrumental period is essential to contextualize the current climatic period within a longer record. Dendrochronology has been used as a powerful tool for estimating the temperature and precipitation variability of the last centuries on an annual and even seasonal scale. However, most of the centenary trees in Spain are located in high-elevation mountain environments, so the reconstructed signal is not representative of the climate variability of the lowlands, where the main cities and most of the population and human activities are located. Here we present a precipitation reconstruction of the Bardenas Natural Park, a semi-arid environment within the Ebro Valley, based on 61 new tree-ring width series of Pinus halepensis Mill. The new chronology, calibrated against high-resolution instrumental precipitation data, uncovers a high and robust relationship with the annual precipitation (from previous June to current May) (1951−2012 CE; r = 0.78;), representing the precipitation totals of the hydrological year. Our reconstruction explains 61 % of the annual precipitation for the period 1951−2012 and is representative of the lowlands of the Northeast of Spain. We identified 12 extremely dry and 11 extremely wet years, finding the first half of the 20th century to be the period with most extreme episodes of the reconstruction. Additionally, we found a strong agreement between our tree-ring based reconstruction and the lowlands documentary-based drought estimators (rogation ceremonies). These findings contribute to improving our understanding of past hydroclimatic variability in semi-arid lowland areas where available proxy records are rare.     

河谷澜沧黄杉指示的青藏高原东南地区过去205年干湿变化

利用采集自青藏高原东南地区察隅县低海拔河谷澜沧黄杉建立树轮宽度差值年表。将树轮宽度差值年表与气候因子进行皮尔逊相关分析,利用线性回归方法重建了青藏高原东南地区1812—2016年4—5月帕尔默干旱指数(PDSI)变化(方差解释量为47%)。结果表明: 树轮宽度指数与PDSI指数有良好相关性(r=0.69,P<0.01)。PDSI重建序列存在4个偏湿阶段(1831—1844年、1853—1863年、1938—1948年和1988—2002年)、3个偏干阶段(1864—1876年、1908—1926年和2003—2016年)。与其他序列和历史记录对比分析表明,该重建序列能够较好地指示研究区历史时期干湿变化。空间分析显示,重建序列与青藏高原东南地区 PDSI 指数的变化趋势较为一致,具有很强的空间代表性。多窗谱分析表明,PDSI重建序列具有19～20、3.9、3.2、2.4和2.1年准周期变化特征,这些周期性干湿变化与亚洲夏季风和ENSO活动相关。     

Assessment of tree-ring analysis of high-elevation Cedrus deodara D. Don from Western Himalaya (India) in relation to climate and glacier fluctuations

A 458-year-long regional tree-ring-width index chronology of Himalayan cedar (Cedrus deodara D. Don) prepared from three high-elevation sites of Western Himalaya has been presented. Dendroclimatological investigation indicates significant positive relationship of tree-ring index series with winter (December–February) temperature and summer precipitation and inverse relationship with summer temperature. Higher growth in the recent few decades detected in the tree-ring chronology has been noticed coinciding with the rapid retreat of the Himalayan glaciers. Suppressed and released growth patterns in tree-ring chronology have also been observed to be well related to the past glacial fluctuation records of the region. The higher tree growth in recent decades may be partially attributed to the warming trend over the region, particularly increasing the winter warmth, and thus to the regional manifestations of global warming.     

Influence of climate and disturbance on the growth of Tsuga canadensis at its southern limit in eastern North America

It has long been hypothesized that trees growing at range limits likely also occur near the limit of their ecological amplitude and thus, should be more sensitive to climate variability than individuals growing nearer the range core. We developed a tree-ring chronology using Tsuga canadensis individuals from three disjunct stands at the species’ southern limit to quantify the influence of climate and disturbance on radial growth patterns. The tree-ring record extended 158 years from 1850 to 2007. Significant negative relationships were found between the STANDARD chronology and monthly mean temperature, monthly maximum temperature, and monthly minimum temperature during the previous and current summer, while significant positive relationships were documented between the STANDARD chronology and monthly minimum temperature for September and October of the current year. Also, significant positive relationships were documented between the STANDARD chronology and monthly total precipitation for September of the previous year and May of the current year. Response function analysis showed that monthly climate variables (r ² = 0.22) and prior growth (r ² = 0.40) explained 62% of the variance in the T. canadensis tree-ring chronology. A time series plot for the T. canadensis chronology showed that actual tree growth agreed relatively well with the predicted growth based on significant climate variables. However, positive departures from the predicted growth were noted. Dendroecological analysis revealed these departures were likely related to disturbance events. Our results indicated that T. canadensis individuals at its southernmost extent are sensitive to regional climate, but not more so than trees nearer the range core. We hypothesize that microenvironmental conditions of T. canadensis stands at its southern limit are similar to conditions within the contiguous distribution of the species, which may explain this pattern.