Linking a farm model and a location optimization model for evaluating energetic and material straw valorization pathways—A case study in Baden‐Wuerttemberg

Diminishing fossil carbon resources, global warming, and increasing material and energy needs urge for the rapid development of a bioeconomy. Biomass feedstock from agro‐industrial value chains provides opportunities for energy and material production, potentially leading to competition with traditional food and feed production. Simulation and optimization models can support the evaluation of biomass value chains and identify bioeconomy development paths, potentials, opportunities, and risks. This study presents the linkage of a farm model (EFEM) and a techno‐economic location optimization model (BIOLOCATE) for evaluating the straw‐to‐energy and the innovative straw‐to‐chemical value chains in the German federal state of Baden‐Wuerttemberg taking into account the spatially distributed and price‐sensitive nature of straw supply. The general results reveal the basic trade‐off between economies of scale of the energy production plants and the biorefineries on the one hand and the feedstock supply costs on the other hand. The results of the farm model highlight the competition for land between traditional agricultural biomass utilization such as food and feed and innovative biomass‐to‐energy and biomass‐to‐chemical value chains. Additionally, farm‐modeling scenarios illustrate the effect of farm specialization and regional differences on straw supply for biomass value chains as well as the effect of high straw prices on crop choices. The technological modeling results show that straw combustion could cover approximately 2% of Baden‐Wuerttemberg's gross electricity consumption and approximately 35% of the district heating consumption. The lignocellulose biorefinery location and size are affected by the price sensitivity of the straw supply and are only profitable for high output prices of organosolv lignin. The location optimization results illustrate that economic and political framework conditions affect the regional distribution of biomass straw conversion plants, thus favoring decentralized value chain structures in contrast to technological economies of scale.     

Potential trade‐offs of employing perennial biomass crops for the bioeconomy in the EU by 2050: Impacts on agricultural markets in the EU and the world

Perennial biomass crops (PBC) are considered a crucial feedstock for sustainable biomass supply to the bioeconomy that compete less with food production compared to traditional crops. However, large‐scale development of PBC as a means to reach greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation targets would require not only the production on land previously not used for agriculture, but also the use of land that is currently used for agricultural production. This study aims to evaluate agricultural market impacts with biomass demand for food, feed, and PBC in four bioeconomy scenarios (“Business as usual,” “Improved relevance of bioeconomy,” “Extensive transformation to a bioeconomy,” “Extensive transformation to a bioeconomy with diet change”) to achieve a 75% GHG reduction target in the emission trading sector of the EU until 2050. We simulated bioeconomy scenarios in the energy system model TIMES‐PanEU and the agricultural sector model ESIM and conducted a sensitivity analysis considering crop yields, PBC yields, and land use options of PBC. Our results show that all bioeconomy scenarios except the one with diet change lead to increasing food prices (the average food price index increases by about 11% in the EU and 2.5%–3.0% in world markets). A combination of the transformation to a bioeconomy combined with diet change toward less animal protein in the EU is the only scenario that results in only moderately increasing food prices within the EU (+3.0%) and even falling global food prices (–6.4%). In addition, crop yield improvement and cultivation of PBC on marginal land help to reduce increases in food prices, but higher land prices are inevitable because those measures have only small effects on sparing agricultural land for PBC. For a transition to a bioeconomy that acknowledges climate mitigation targets, counter‐measures for those substantial direct and indirect impacts on agricultural markets should be taken into account.     

Land cover change or land‐use intensification: simulating land system change with a global‐scale land change model

Land‐use change is both a cause and consequence of many biophysical and socioeconomic changes. The CLUMondo model provides an innovative approach for global land‐use change modeling to support integrated assessments. Demands for goods and services are, in the model, supplied by a variety of land systems that are characterized by their land cover mosaic, the agricultural management intensity, and livestock. Land system changes are simulated by the model, driven by regional demand for goods and influenced by local factors that either constrain or promote land system conversion. A characteristic of the new model is the endogenous simulation of intensification of agricultural management versus expansion of arable land, and urban versus rural settlements expansion based on land availability in the neighborhood of the location. Model results for the OECD Environmental Outlook scenario show that allocation of increased agricultural production by either management intensification or area expansion varies both among and within world regions, providing useful insight into the land sparing versus land sharing debate. The land system approach allows the inclusion of different types of demand for goods and services from the land system as a driving factor of land system change. Simulation results are compared to observed changes over the 1970–2000 period and projections of other global and regional land change models.     

Considering land–sea interactions and trade‐offs for food and biodiversity

With the human population expected to near 10 billion by 2050, and diets shifting towards greater per‐capita consumption of animal protein, meeting future food demands will place ever‐growing burdens on natural resources and those dependent on them. Solutions proposed to increase the sustainability of agriculture, aquaculture, and capture fisheries have typically approached development from single sector perspectives. Recent work highlights the importance of recognising links among food sectors, and the challenge cross‐sector dependencies create for sustainable food production. Yet without understanding the full suite of interactions between food systems on land and sea, development in one sector may result in unanticipated trade‐offs in another. We review the interactions between terrestrial and aquatic food systems. We show that most of the studied land–sea interactions fall into at least one of four categories: ecosystem connectivity, feed interdependencies, livelihood interactions, and climate feedback. Critically, these interactions modify nutrient flows, and the partitioning of natural resource use between land and sea, amid a backdrop of climate variability and change that reaches across all sectors. Addressing counter‐productive trade‐offs resulting from land‐sea links will require simultaneous improvements in food production and consumption efficiency, while creating more sustainable feed products for fish and livestock. Food security research and policy also needs to better integrate aquatic and terrestrial production to anticipate how cross‐sector interactions could transmit change across ecosystem and governance boundaries into the future.     

Combining choice modeling estimates and stochastic simulations to assess the potential of new crops—The case of lignocellulosic perennials in Southwestern Germany

In the future, the lignocellulosic perennial crops short rotation coppice (SRC) and miscanthus are supposed to provide renewable raw materials for a bio‐based economy. To assess the potential regional supply of these crops, which are not yet widespread in Baden–Wuerttemberg (Southwest Germany), we used a two‐step approach. In a first step, we conducted a Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE) in regions of Baden–Wuerttemberg that—given their site conditions—are suitable for SRC or miscanthus. The respondents were characterized by significant preference heterogeneity for both (negatively valued) perennial crops and for all presented choice attributes. Thus, it was appropriate to estimate a random parameter logit model (RPL). The attributes average yearly contribution margin, long‐term purchase guarantee and cultivation by colleagues in the neighborhood had a significantly positive effect on the likelihood of cultivation, whereas the attributes contribution margin variability and initial investment need showed a significantly negative effect. In a second step, assuming realistic values for the levels of the attributes considered in the DCE, in stochastic simulations, we randomly draw part‐worth utilities from the multivariate normal distribution of these parameters according to the RPL results. This way, for alternative biomass prices, we derived shares of farmers’ willing to engage in perennial crop production and produced related regional supply functions. Under moderate yield and realistic input and farmland opportunity cost assumptions, the full regional miscanthus potential can only be achieved when farmers are offered either subsidies or price‐risk‐reducing long‐term contracts. Based on empirically determined heterogeneous farmer preferences, our two‐step approach is suitable to yield realistic estimations of any not yet implemented farming practices. We finally note caveats related to our analysis and discuss some policy implications of the major findings.     

Woodland restoration on agricultural land: long‐term impacts on soil quality

Woodland restoration is underway globally to counter the negative soil quality and ecological impacts of agricultural expansion and woodland fragmentation, and restore or enhance biodiversity, ecosystem functions and services. However, we lack information about the long‐term effects of woodland restoration on agricultural soils, particularly at temporal scales meaningful to woodland and soil development. This study utilized soil and earthworm sampling across a chronosequence of sites transitioning from “agricultural land” to “secondary woodland” (50–110 years) and “ancient woodland” (>400 years), with the goal of quantifying the effects of woodland restoration on agricultural land, on key soil quality parameters (soil bulk density, pH, carbon and nitrogen stocks, and earthworm abundance, biomass, species richness and diversity). Broad‐leaved woodland restoration led to significantly greater soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks compared to arable land, and young (50–60 years) secondary woodland increased earthworm species and functional diversity compared to both arable and pasture agricultural land. SOC stocks in secondary broad‐leaved woodlands (50–110 years) were comparable to those found in long‐term ancient woodlands (>400 years). Our findings show that broad‐leaved woodland restoration of agricultural land can lead to meaningful soil ecological improvement and gains in SOC within 50–110 years, and provide intel on how restoration activities may be best targeted to maximize soil quality and functions.     

Environmental implications of the use of agro‐industrial residues for biorefineries: application of a deterministic model for indirect land‐use changes

Biorefining agro‐industrial biomass residues for bioenergy production represents an opportunity for both sustainable energy supply and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mitigation. Yet, is bioenergy the most sustainable use for these residues? To assess the importance of the alternative use of these residues, a consequential life cycle assessment (LCA) of 32 energy‐focused biorefinery scenarios was performed based on eight selected agro‐industrial residues and four conversion pathways (two involving bioethanol and two biogas). To specifically address indirect land‐use changes (iLUC) induced by the competing feed/food sector, a deterministic iLUC model, addressing global impacts, was developed. A dedicated biochemical model was developed to establish detailed mass, energy, and substance balances for each biomass conversion pathway, as input to the LCA. The results demonstrated that, even for residual biomass, environmental savings from fossil fuel displacement can be completely outbalanced by iLUC, depending on the feed value of the biomass residue. This was the case of industrial residues (e.g. whey and beet molasses) in most of the scenarios assessed. Overall, the GHGs from iLUC impacts were quantified to 4.1 t CO₂‐eq.ha^?1_demanded yr^?1 corresponding to 1.2–1.4 t CO₂‐eq. t^?1 dry biomass diverted from feed to energy market. Only, bioenergy from straw and wild grass was shown to perform better than the alternative use, as no competition with the feed sector was involved. Biogas for heat and power production was the best performing pathway, in a short‐term context. Focusing on transport fuels, bioethanol was generally preferable to biomethane considering conventional biogas upgrading technologies. Based on the results, agro‐industrial residues cannot be considered burden‐free simply because they are a residual biomass and careful accounting of alternative utilization is a prerequisite to assess the sustainability of a given use. In this endeavor, the iLUC factors and biochemical model proposed herein can be used as templates and directly applied to any bioenergy consequential study involving demand for arable land.     

Integrated lignocellulosic value chains in a growing bioeconomy: Status quo and perspectives

Lignocellulose is the most abundant biomass on Earth, with an estimated 181.5 billion tonnes produced annually. Of the 8.2 billion tonnes that are currently used, about 7 billion tonnes are produced from dedicated agricultural, grass and forest land and another 1.2 billion tonnes stem from agricultural residues. Economic and environmentally efficient pathways for production and utilization of lignocellulose for chemical products and energy are needed to expand the bioeconomy. This opinion paper arose from the research network “Lignocellulose as new resource platform for novel materials and products” funded by the German federal state of Baden‐Württemberg and summarizes original research presented in this special issue. It first discusses how the supply of lignocellulosic biomass can be organized sustainably and suggests that perennial biomass crops (PBC) are likely to play an important role in future regional biomass supply to European lignocellulosic biorefineries. Dedicated PBC production has the advantage of delivering biomass with reliable quantity and quality. The tailoring of PBC quality through crop breeding and management can support the integration of lignocellulosic value chains. Two biorefinery concepts using lignocellulosic biomass are then compared and discussed: the syngas biorefinery and the lignocellulosic biorefinery. Syngas biorefineries are less sensitive to biomass qualities and are technically relatively advanced, but require high investments and large‐scale facilities to be economically feasible. Lignocellulosic biorefineries require multiple processing steps to separate the recalcitrant lignin from cellulose and hemicellulose and convert the intermediates into valuable products. The refining processes for high‐quality lignin and hemicellulose fractions still need to be further developed. A concept of a modular lignocellulosic biorefinery is presented that could be flexibly adapted for a range of feedstock and products by combining appropriate technologies either at the same location or in a decentralized form.     

Cattle feed or bioenergy? Consequential life cycle assessment of biogas feedstock options on dairy farms

On‐farm anaerobic digestion (AD) of wastes and crops can potentially avoid greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but incurs extensive environmental effects via carbon and nitrogen cycles and substitution of multiple processes within and outside farm system boundaries. Farm models were combined with consequential life cycle assessment (CLCA) to assess plausible biogas and miscanthus heating pellet scenarios on dairy farms. On the large dairy farm, the introduction of slurry‐only AD led to reductions in global warming potential (GWP) and resource depletion burdens of 14% and 67%, respectively, but eutrophication and acidification burden increases of 9% and 10%, respectively, assuming open tank digestate storage. Marginal GWP burdens per Mg dry matter (DM) feedstock codigested with slurry ranged from –637 kg CO₂e for food waste to +509 kg CO₂e for maize. Codigestion of grass and maize led to increased imports of concentrate feed to the farm, negating the GWP benefits of grid electricity substitution. Attributing grass‐to‐arable land use change (LUC) to marginal wheat feed production led to net GWP burdens exceeding 900 kg CO₂e Mg^?1 maize DM codigested. Converting the medium‐sized dairy farm to a beef‐plus‐AD farm led to a minor reduction in GWP when grass‐to‐arable LUC was excluded, but a 38% GWP increase when such LUC was attributed to marginal maize and wheat feed required for intensive compensatory milk production. If marginal animal feed is derived from soybeans cultivated on recently converted cropland in South America, the net GWP burden increases to 4099 kg CO₂e Mg^?1 maize DM codigested – equivalent to 55 Mg CO₂e yr^?1 per hectare used for AD‐maize cultivation. We conclude that AD of slurry and food waste on dairy farms is an effective GHG mitigation option, but that the quantity of codigested crops should be strictly limited to avoid potentially large international carbon leakage via animal feed displacement.     

Defining a land boundary for sustainable livestock consumption

The need for more sustainable production and consumption of animal source food (ASF) is central to the achievement of the sustainable development goals: within this context, wise use of land is a core challenge and concern. A key question in feeding the future world is: how much ASF should we eat? We demonstrate that livestock raised under the circular economy concept could provide a significant, nonnegligible part (9–23 g/per capita) of our daily protein needs (~50–60 g/per capita). This livestock then would not consume human‐edible biomass, such as grains, but mainly convert leftovers from arable land and grass resources into valuable food, implying that production of livestock feed is largely decoupled from arable land. The availability of these biomass streams for livestock then determines the boundaries for livestock production and consumption. Under this concept, the competition for land for feed or food would be minimized and compared to no ASF, including some ASF in the human diet could free up about one quarter of global arable land. Our results also demonstrate that restricted growth in consumption of ASF in Africa and Asia would be feasible under these boundary conditions, while reductions in the rest of the world would be necessary to meet land use sustainability criteria. Managing this expansion and contraction of future consumption of ASF is essential for achieving sustainable nutrition security.     

Bioenergy production and forest landscape change in the southeastern United States

Production of woody biomass for bioenergy, whether wood pellets or liquid biofuels, has the potential to cause substantial landscape change and concomitant effects on forest ecosystems, but the landscape effects of alternative production scenarios have not been fully assessed. We simulated landscape change from 2010 to 2050 under five scenarios of woody biomass production for wood pellets and liquid biofuels in North Carolina, in the southeastern United States, a region that is a substantial producer of wood biomass for bioenergy and contains high biodiversity. Modeled scenarios varied biomass feedstocks, incorporating harvest of ‘conventional’ forests, which include naturally regenerating as well as planted forests that exist on the landscape even without bioenergy production, as well as purpose‐grown woody crops grown on marginal lands. Results reveal trade‐offs among scenarios in terms of overall forest area and the characteristics of the remaining forest in 2050. Meeting demand for biomass from conventional forests resulted in more total forest land compared with a baseline, business‐as‐usual scenario. However, the remaining forest was composed of more intensively managed forest and less of the bottomland hardwood and longleaf pine habitats that support biodiversity. Converting marginal forest to purpose‐grown crops reduced forest area, but the remaining forest contained more of the critical habitats for biodiversity. Conversion of marginal agricultural lands to purpose‐grown crops resulted in smaller differences from the baseline scenario in terms of forest area and the characteristics of remaining forest habitats. Each scenario affected the dominant type of land‐use change in some regions, especially in the coastal plain that harbors high levels of biodiversity. Our results demonstrate the complex landscape effects of alternative bioenergy scenarios, highlight that the regions most likely to be affected by bioenergy production are also critical for biodiversity, and point to the challenges associated with evaluating bioenergy sustainability.     

Biomass production potential from Populus short rotation systems in Romania

The aim of this study was to assess the potential of biomass production by short rotation poplar in Romania without constraining agricultural food production. Located in the eastern part of Europe, Romania provides substantial land resources suitable for bioenergy production. The process‐oriented biogeochemical model Landscape DNDC was used in conjunction with the forest‐growth model PSIM to simulate the yield of poplar grown in short‐rotation coppice at different sites in Romania. The model was validated on five sites with different climatic conditions in Central Europe. Using regional site conditions, with climatic parameters and organic carbon content in soil being the most important, the biomass production potential of poplar plantations was simulated for agricultural areas across Romania. Results indicated a mean productivity of 12.2 ± 0.5 t ha^?1 year^?1 of poplar coppices on arable land in Romania. The highest yields were simulated for lowland areas in the south‐east and west and for the Mures valley, whereas the lowest yields – due to either temperature or water limitations – were found for the mountainous regions, the Danube valley, and the region west of Bucharest. The amount of abandoned arable land in the past 10 years indicates that around 10% of cropping land in production in 1999 (approximately 1 million ha) is available for bioenergy production systems today. Production of poplar grown in short‐rotation coppices on these areas would result in a yield of approximately 10 million tons of wood per year. The energy that can be generated by conversion of poplar short rotation coppice biomass may contribute up to approximately 8% of the national energy demand if these set‐aside areas are used for lignocellulosic bioenergy.     

Land use types influenced avian assemblage structure in a forest–agriculture landscape in Ghana

The conservation of biodiversity within tropical forest regions does not lie only in the maintenance of natural forest areas, but on conservation strategies directed toward agricultural land types within which they are embedded. This study investigated variations in bird assemblages of different functional groups of forest‐dependent birds in three agricultural land types, relative to distance from the interior of 34 tropical forest patches of varying sizes. Point counts were used to sample birds at each study site visited. Data from counts were used to estimate species richness, species evenness, and Simpson's diversity of birds. Mean species richness, evenness, and diversity were modeled as responses and as a function of agricultural land type, distance from the forest interior and three site‐scale vegetation covariates (density of large trees, fruiting trees, and patch size) using generalized linear mixed‐effect models. Mean observed species richness of birds varied significantly within habitat types. Mean observed species richness was highest in forest interior sites while sites located in farm centers recorded the lowest mean species richness. Species richness of forest specialists was strongly influenced by the type of agricultural land use. Fallow lands, density of large trees, and patch size strongly positively influenced forest specialists. Insectivorous and frugivorous birds were more species‐rich in fallow lands while monoculture plantations favored nectarivorous birds. Our results suggest that poor agricultural practices can lead to population declines of forest‐dependent birds particularly specialist species. Conservation actions should include proper land use management that ensures heterogeneity through retention of native tree species on farms in tropical forest‐agriculture landscapes.     

Consequential Life Cycle Assessment of Pasture‐based Milk Production: A Case Study in the Waikato Region,New Zealand

Farm intensification options in pasture‐based dairy systems are generally associated with increased stocking rates coupled with the increased use of off‐farm inputs to support the additional feed demand of animals. However, as well as increasing milk production per hectare, intensification can also exacerbate adverse impacts on the environment. The objective of the present study was to investigate environmental trade‐offs associated with potential intensification methods for pasture‐based dairy farming systems in the Waikato region, New Zealand. The intensification scenarios selected were (1) increased pasture utilization efficiency (PUE scenario), (2) increased use of nitrogen (N) fertilizer to boost on‐farm pasture production (N fertilizer scenario), and (3) increased use of brought‐in feed as maize silage (MS) (MS scenario). Twelve impact categories were assessed. The PUE scenario was the environmentally preferred intensification method, and the preferred choice between the N fertilizer and MS scenarios depended upon trade‐offs between different environmental impacts. Sensitivity analysis was carried out to test the effects of choice associated with: (1) the approaches used to account for indirect land‐use change (ILUC) and (2) the competing product systems (conventional beef systems) used to handle the co‐product dairy meat for the climate change (CC) indicator. Results showed that the magnitude of the CC indicator results was influenced by the ILUC accounting approaches and the choice associated with a global marginal beef mix, but the relative CC indicator results for the three intensification scenarios remained unchanged.     

Agricultural intensification in Brazil and its effects on land‐use patterns: an analysis of the 1975–2006 period

Does agricultural intensification reduce the area used for agricultural production in Brazil? Census and other data for time periods 1975–1996 and 1996–2006 were processed and analyzed using Geographic Information System and statistical tools to investigate whether and if so, how, changes in yield and stocking rate coincide with changes in cropland and pasture area. Complementary medium‐resolution data on total farmland area changes were used in a spatially explicit assessment of the land‐use transitions that occurred in Brazil during 1960–2006. The analyses show that in agriculturally consolidated areas (mainly southern and southeastern Brazil), land‐use intensification (both on cropland and pastures) coincided with either contraction of both cropland and pasture areas, or cropland expansion at the expense of pastures, both cases resulting in farmland stability or contraction. In contrast, in agricultural frontier areas (i.e., the deforestation zones in central and northern Brazil), land‐use intensification coincided with expansion of agricultural lands. These observations provide support for the thesis that (i) technological improvements create incentives for expansion in agricultural frontier areas; and (ii) farmers are likely to reduce their managed acreage only if land becomes a scarce resource. The spatially explicit examination of land‐use transitions since 1960 reveals an expansion and gradual movement of the agricultural frontier toward the interior (center‐western Cerrado) of Brazil. It also indicates a possible initiation of a reversed trend in line with the forest transition theory, i.e., agricultural contraction and recurring forests in marginally suitable areas in southeastern Brazil, mainly within the Atlantic Forest biome. The significant reduction in deforestation that has taken place in recent years, despite rising food commodity prices, indicates that policies put in place to curb conversion of native vegetation to agriculture land might be effective. This can improve the prospects for protecting native vegetation by investing in agricultural intensification.     

A review of global potentially available cropland estimates and their consequences for model‐based assessments

The world's population is growing and demand for food, feed, fiber, and fuel is increasing, placing greater demand on land and its resources for crop production. We review previously published estimates of global scale cropland availability, discuss the underlying assumptions that lead to differences between estimates, and illustrate the consequences of applying different estimates in model‐based assessments of land‐use change. The review estimates a range from 1552 to 5131 Mha, which includes 1550 Mha that is already cropland. Hence, the lowest estimates indicate that there is almost no room for cropland expansion, while the highest estimates indicate that cropland could potentially expand to over three times its current area. Differences can largely be attributed to institutional assumptions, i.e. which land covers/uses (e.g. forests or grasslands) are societally or governmentally allowed to convert to cropland, while there was little variation in biophysical assumptions. Estimates based on comparable assumptions showed a variation of up to 84%, which originated mainly from different underlying data sources. On the basis of this synthesis of the assumptions underlying these estimates, we constructed a high, a medium, and a low estimate of cropland availability that are representative of the range of estimates in the reviewed studies. We apply these estimates in a land‐change model to illustrate the consequences on cropland expansion and intensification as well as deforestation. While uncertainty in cropland availability is hardly addressed in global land‐use change assessments, the results indicate a large range of estimates with important consequences for model‐based assessments.     

The potential impact of second‐generation biofuel landscapes on at‐risk species in the US

The recent increase in corn ethanol production has drawn attention to the environmental sustainability of biofuel production. Environmental assessments of second‐generation biofuel crops (SGBC) have focused primarily on greenhouse gas emissions and water quality. However, expanding the production of cellulosic biomass resources, especially those that require dedicated agricultural land, is also likely to have impacts on biodiversity. We developed an optimization framework for projecting the spatial pattern of SGBC expansion in the United States and intersected these predictions with occurrence data for at‐risk species. In particular, we focused on two candidate perennial grass feedstocks, Panicum virgatum (switchgrass), and Miscanthus × giganteus (Miscanthus). Tradeoffs between biodiversity and economic profitability are assessed using county level data sets of SGBC yield, agricultural land availability, land rents, and at‐risk species occurrences. Results show that future SGBC expansion is likely to occur outside of the Corn Belt, where conventional biofuel feedstocks are currently grown. The set of at‐risk species that could potentially be impacted is therefore likely to be different from the at‐risk species prevalent in the agroecological landscapes of the Upper Midwest that are dominated by corn and soy production. The total number and type of potentially impacted taxa is influenced by several factors, including the total demand for cellulosic biomass, the type of agricultural land used for production, and the method for defining at‐risk species. SGBC production is also concentrated in fewer counties when a national species conservation constraint is combined with a biofuel production mandate. This analysis provides a foundation for future research on species conservation in bioenergy production landscapes and highlights the importance of incorporating biodiversity into broader environmental assessments of biofuel sustainability.     

Trade‐offs between land and water requirements for large‐scale bioenergy production

Bioenergy is expected to play an important role in the future energy mix as it can substitute fossil fuels and contribute to climate change mitigation. However, large‐scale bioenergy cultivation may put substantial pressure on land and water resources. While irrigated bioenergy production can reduce the pressure on land due to higher yields, associated irrigation water requirements may lead to degradation of freshwater ecosystems and to conflicts with other potential users. In this article, we investigate the trade‐offs between land and water requirements of large‐scale bioenergy production. To this end, we adopt an exogenous demand trajectory for bioenergy from dedicated energy crops, targeted at limiting greenhouse gas emissions in the energy sector to 1100 Gt carbon dioxide equivalent until 2095. We then use the spatially explicit global land‐ and water‐use allocation model MAgPIE to project the implications of this bioenergy target for global land and water resources. We find that producing 300 EJ yr^?1 of bioenergy in 2095 from dedicated bioenergy crops is likely to double agricultural water withdrawals if no explicit water protection policies are implemented. Since current human water withdrawals are dominated by agriculture and already lead to ecosystem degradation and biodiversity loss, such a doubling will pose a severe threat to freshwater ecosystems. If irrigated bioenergy production is prohibited to prevent negative impacts of bioenergy cultivation on water resources, bioenergy land requirements for meeting a 300 EJ yr^?1 bioenergy target increase substantially (+ 41%) – mainly at the expense of pasture areas and tropical forests. Thus, avoiding negative environmental impacts of large‐scale bioenergy production will require policies that balance associated water and land requirements.     

The impact of biomass crop cultivation on temperate biodiversity

The urgency for mitigation actions in response to climate change has stimulated policy makers to encourage the rapid expansion of bioenergy, resulting in major land‐use changes over short timescales. Despite the potential impacts on biodiversity and the environment, scientific concerns about large‐scale bioenergy production have only recently been given adequate attention. Environmental standards or legislative provisions in the majority of countries are still lagging behind the rapid development of energy crops. Ranging from the field to the regional scale, this review (i) summarizes the current knowledge about the impact of biomass crops on biodiversity in temperate regions, (ii) identifies knowledge gaps and (iii) drafts guidelines for a sustainable biomass crop production with respect to biodiversity conservation. The majority of studies report positive effects on biodiversity at the field scale but impacts strongly depend on the management, age, size and heterogeneity of the biomass plantations. At the regional scale, significant uncertainties exist and there is a major concern that extensive commercial production could have negative effects on biodiversity, in particular in areas of high nature‐conservation value. However, integration of biomass crops into agricultural landscapes could stimulate rural economy, thus counteracting negative impacts of farm abandonment or supporting restoration of degraded land, resulting in improved biodiversity values. Given the extent of landconversion necessary to reach the bioenergy targets, the spatial layout and distribution of biomass plantations will determine impacts. To ensure sustainable biomass crop production, biodiversity would therefore have to become an essential part of risk assessment measures in all those countries which have not yet committed to making it an obligatory part of strategic landscape planning. Integrated environmental and economic research is necessary to formulate standards that help support long‐term economic and ecological sustainability of biomass production and avoid costly mistakes in our attempts to mitigate climate change.     

Biofuels agriculture: landscape‐scale trade‐offs between fuel,economics, carbon,energy, food,and fiber

First‐generation biofuels are an existing, scalable form of renewable energy of the type urgently required to mitigate climate change. In this study, we assessed the potential benefits, costs, and trade‐offs associated with biofuels agriculture to inform bioenergy policy. We assessed different climate change and carbon subsidy scenarios in an 11.9 million ha (5.48 million ha arable) region in southern Australia. We modeled the spatial distribution of agricultural production, full life‐cycle net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and net energy, and economic profitability for both food agriculture (wheat, legumes, sheep rotation) and biofuels agriculture (wheat, canola rotation for ethanol/biodiesel production). The costs, benefits, and trade‐offs associated with biofuels agriculture varied geographically, with climate change, and with the level of carbon subsidy. Below we describe the results in general and provide (in parentheses) illustrative results under historical mean climate and a carbon subsidy of A$20 t^?1 CO₂^?e. Biofuels agriculture was more profitable over an extensive area (2.85 million ha) of the most productive arable land and produced large quantities of biofuels (1.7 GL yr^?1). Biofuels agriculture substantially increased economic profit (145.8 million $A yr^?1 or 30%), but had only a modest net GHG abatement (?2.57 million t CO₂^?e yr^?1), and a negligible effect on net energy production (?0.11 PJ yr^?1). However, food production was considerably reduced in terms of grain (?3.04 million t yr^?1) and sheep meat (?1.89 million head yr^?1). Wool fiber production was also substantially reduced (?23.19 kt yr^?1). While biofuels agriculture can produce short‐term benefits, it also has costs, and the vulnerability of biofuels to climatic warming and drying renders it a myopic strategy. Nonetheless, in some areas the profitability of biofuels agriculture is robust to variation in climate and level of carbon subsidy and these areas may form part of a long‐term diversified mix of land‐use solutions to climate change if trade‐offs can be managed.