Thresholds of sea‐level rise rate and sea‐level rise acceleration rate in a vulnerable coastal wetland

Feedbacks among inundation, sediment trapping, and vegetation productivity help maintain coastal wetlands facing sea‐level rise (SLR ). However, when the SLR rate exceeds a threshold, coastal wetlands can collapse. Understanding the threshold helps address key challenges in ecology—nonlinear response of ecosystems to environmental change, promotes communication between ecologists and resource managers, and facilitates decision‐making in climate change policies. We studied the threshold of SLR rate and developed a new threshold of SLR acceleration rate on sustainability of coastal wetlands as SLR is likely to accelerate due to enhanced anthropogenic forces. Deriving these two thresholds depends on the temporal scale, the interaction of SLR with other environmental factors, and landscape metrics, which have not been fully accounted for before this study. We chose a representative marine‐dominated estuary in the northern Gulf of Mexico, Grand Bay in Mississippi, to test the concept of SLR thresholds. We developed a mechanistic model to simulate wetland change and then derived the SLR thresholds for Grand Bay. The model results show that the threshold of SLR rate in Grand Bay is 11.9 mm/year for 2050, and it drops to 8.4 mm/year for 2100 using total wetland area as a landscape metric. The corresponding SLR acceleration rate thresholds are 3.02 × 10^?4 m/year² and 9.62 × 10^?5 m/year² for 2050 and 2100, respectively. The newly developed SLR acceleration rate threshold can help quantify the temporal lag before the rapid decline in wetland area becomes evident after the SLR rate threshold is exceeded, and cumulative SLR a wetland can adapt to under the SLR acceleration scenarios. Based on the thresholds, SLR that will adversely impact the coastal wetlands in Grand Bay by 2100 will fall within the likely range of SLR under a high warming scenario (RCP 8.5), highlighting the need to avoid RCP 8.5 to preserve these marshes.     

Vulnerability of terrestrial island vertebrates to projected sea‐level rise

Sea‐level rise (SLR) from global warming may have severe consequences for biodiversity; however, a baseline, broad‐scale assessment of the potential consequences of SLR for island biodiversity is lacking. Here, we quantify area loss for over 12 900 islands and over 3000 terrestrial vertebrates in the Pacific and Southeast Asia under three different SLR scenarios (1 m, 3 m and 6 m). We used very fine‐grained elevation information, which offered >100 times greater spatial detail than previous analyses and allowed us to evaluate thousands of hitherto not assessed small islands. Depending on the SLR scenario, we estimate that 15–62% of islands in our study region will be completely inundated and 19–24% will lose 50–99% of their area. Overall, we project that between 1% and 9% of the total island area in our study region may be lost. We find that Pacific species are 2–3 times more vulnerable than those in the Indomalayan or Australasian region and risk losing 4–22% of range area (1–6 m SLR). Species already listed as threatened by IUCN are particularly vulnerable compared with non‐threatened species. Under a simple area loss–species loss proportionality assumption, we estimate that 37 island group endemic species in this region risk complete inundation of their current global distribution in the 1 m SLR scenario that is widely anticipated for this century (and 118 species under 3 m SLR). Our analysis provides a first, broad‐scale estimate of the potential consequences of SLR for island biodiversity and our findings confirm that islands are extremely vulnerable to sea‐level rise even within this century.     

High‐resolution tide projections reveal extinction threshold in response to sea‐level rise

Sea‐level rise will affect coastal species worldwide, but models that aim to predict these effects are typically based on simple measures of sea level that do not capture its inherent complexity, especially variation over timescales shorter than 1 year. Coastal species might be most affected, however, by floods that exceed a critical threshold. The frequency and duration of such floods may be more important to population dynamics than mean measures of sea level. In particular, the potential for changes in the frequency and duration of flooding events to result in nonlinear population responses or biological thresholds merits further research, but may require that models incorporate greater resolution in sea level than is typically used. We created population simulations for a threatened songbird, the saltmarsh sparrow (Ammodramus caudacutus), in a region where sea level is predictable with high accuracy and precision. We show that incorporating the timing of semidiurnal high tide events throughout the breeding season, including how this timing is affected by mean sea‐level rise, predicts a reproductive threshold that is likely to cause a rapid demographic shift. This shift is likely to threaten the persistence of saltmarsh sparrows beyond 2060 and could cause extinction as soon as 2035. Neither extinction date nor the population trajectory was sensitive to the emissions scenarios underlying sea‐level projections, as most of the population decline occurred before scenarios diverge. Our results suggest that the variation and complexity of climate‐driven variables could be important for understanding the potential responses of coastal species to sea‐level rise, especially for species that rely on coastal areas for reproduction.     

Oceanographic anomalies and sea‐level rise drive mangroves inland in the Pacific coast of Mexico

Question: Although mangrove forests are generally regarded as highly threatened, some studies have shown that mangrove canopies in the Pacific coast of Mexico have been increasing in recent decades. We investigated the possible causes driving this reported mangrove expansion. Location: The mangrove lagoons of Magdalena Bay in Baja California, Mexico. Methods: We used 50‐year‐old aerial photographs and 24‐year‐old satellite images to compare long‐term vegetation change, surveyed a coastal vegetation transect to analyse flooding levels, compiled six decades of tidal and oceanographic information, as well as hurricane data to analyse changes in storm frequency or sea‐level conditions, and used isotopic analysis to date the age of trees along the gradient. Results: A significant increase in mangrove cover has occurred in backwaters of the lagoons during the last 40 years, and especially during the El Niño anomalies of the 1980s and 1990s, while at the same time the mangrove fringe has been receding. Conclusions: The observed change can be attributed to the combined action of the warm surface waters of El Niño events and sea‐level rise. Jointly, these two effects are sufficient to flood large areas of previously non‐flooded salt flats, dispersing mangrove seedlings inland. The inland expansion of mangroves, however, does not ease conservation concerns, as it is the seaward fringes, and not the inland margins, that provide the most valuable environmental services for fisheries and coastal protection.     

Managing for change: wetland transitions under sea‐level rise and outcomes for threatened species

Aim Global sea‐level rise (SLR) could be as much as 1.8 metres by 2100, which will impact coastal wetland communities and threatened species. We evaluated the likely outcomes of SLR for wetland communities using a process‐based simulation model and coupled this with a metapopulation model for a threatened native rodent (Xeromys myoides). Furthermore, we tested the amplified impacts of SLR, urban growth and introduced predators on X. myoides persistence. Location South‐east Queensland, Australia. Methods We adapted the Sea Level Affects Marshes Model to subtropical Australia. We used LiDAR elevation data, field data to parameterize surface accretion and shallow subsidence, and local knowledge to configure wetland transitions. SLR was simulated based on the IPCC B1 and A1FI scenarios, as well as the maximal limit of 1.8 m by 2100. Further, we coupled our demographic model to projected shifts in wetland habitat, and estimates of future wetland loss to urban expansion and feral cat (Felis catus) predation. Results Our models project a general decline in wetland communities under SLR, with a noted exception of mangroves. Under the A1FI scenario, SLR allows mangroves to migrate inland, with urban development acting as an obstruction in some areas. Mangrove expansion provides an unexpected benefit for dependent X. myoides populations, although the inclusion of predation and habitat loss due to urban development still suggests extirpation in c. 50 years. Main conclusions Through this case study, we illustrate the usefulness of process‐based SLR models in understanding outcomes for wetland communities and dependent species. Our models will underscore decision‐making in a dynamic system, with global applications for urban planning, conservation prioritization and wildlife management.     

Future climate change driven sea‐level rise: secondary consequences from human displacement for island biodiversity

Sea‐level rise (SLR) due to global warming will result in the loss of many coastal areas. The direct or primary effects due to inundation and erosion from SLR are currently being assessed; however, the indirect or secondary ecological effects, such as changes caused by the displacement of human populations, have not been previously evaluated. We examined the potential ecological consequences of future SLR on >1,200 islands in the Southeast Asian and the Pacific region. Using three SLR scenarios (1, 3, and 6 m elevation, where 1 m approximates most predictions by the end of this century), we assessed the consequences of primary and secondary SLR effects from human displacement on habitat availability and distributions of selected mammal species. We estimate that between 3–32% of the coastal zone of these islands could be lost from primary effects, and consequently 8–52 million people would become SLR refugees. Assuming that inundated urban and intensive agricultural areas will be relocated with an equal area of habitat loss in the hinterland, we project that secondary SLR effects can lead to an equal or even higher percent range loss than primary effects for at least 10–18% of the sample mammals in a moderate range loss scenario and for 22–46% in a maximum range loss scenario. In addition, we found some species to be more vulnerable to secondary than primary effects. Finally, we found high spatial variation in vulnerability: species on islands in Oceania are more vulnerable to primary SLR effects, whereas species on islands in Indo‐Malaysia, with potentially 7–48 million SLR refugees, are more vulnerable to secondary effects. Our findings show that primary and secondary SLR effects can have enormous consequences for human inhabitants and island biodiversity, and that both need to be incorporated into ecological risk assessment, conservation, and regional planning.     

Impacts of a half century of sea‐level rise and development on an endangered mammal

The extraordinary growth of human populations and development in coastal areas over the last half century has eliminated and degraded coastal habitats and threatened the persistence of associated wildlife. Moreover, human‐induced sea‐level rise (SLR) is projected to further eliminate and alter the same coastal ecosystems, especially low‐lying regions. Whereas habitat loss and wildlife population declines from development are well documented, contemporary SLR has not yet been implicated in declines of coastal faunal populations. In addition, the projection of severe synergistic impacts from the combination of development and SLR is well described, yet the scientific literature offers little empirical evidence of the influence of these forces on coastal wildlife. Analysis of aerial photographs from 1959 to 2006 provided evidence of a 64% net loss of the endangered Lower Keys marsh rabbit's (Sylvilagus palustris hefneri; LKMR) habitat, the majority due to SLR (>48%). Furthermore, there was a strong negative relationship between the proportion of development per island and the amount of new habitat formed. Islands with modest development (less than 8% of land area) saw formation of new areas of marsh vegetation suitable for rabbits, whereas islands with 8% or more of their lands developed between 1959 and 2006 saw little to no addition of LKMR habitat. Only 8% of habitat loss was directly due to conversion to impervious surfaces, indicating that the greatest threats from development were indirect, including blocking of the inland migration of habitat triggered by SLR. Our results were consistent with an ongoing squeeze of coastal ecosystems between rising seas and development as a threat to LKMR habitat, which raises concern for a wide variety of coastal species. Our results provide evidence that SLR has become a contemporary conservation concern, one that is exacerbated by development, and expected to increase in magnitude as ocean waters continue to rise.     

Beyond just sea‐level rise: considering macroclimatic drivers within coastal wetland vulnerability assessments to climate change

Due to their position at the land‐sea interface, coastal wetlands are vulnerable to many aspects of climate change. However, climate change vulnerability assessments for coastal wetlands generally focus solely on sea‐level rise without considering the effects of other facets of climate change. Across the globe and in all ecosystems, macroclimatic drivers (e.g., temperature and rainfall regimes) greatly influence ecosystem structure and function. Macroclimatic drivers have been the focus of climate change‐related threat evaluations for terrestrial ecosystems, but largely ignored for coastal wetlands. In some coastal wetlands, changing macroclimatic conditions are expected to result in foundation plant species replacement, which would affect the supply of certain ecosystem goods and services and could affect ecosystem resilience. As examples, we highlight several ecological transition zones where small changes in macroclimatic conditions would result in comparatively large changes in coastal wetland ecosystem structure and function. Our intent in this communication is not to minimize the importance of sea‐level rise. Rather, our overarching aim is to illustrate the need to also consider macroclimatic drivers within vulnerability assessments for coastal wetlands.     

The conservation value of elevation data accuracy and model sophistication in reserve design under sea‐level rise

Many studies have explored the value of using more sophisticated coastal impact models and higher resolution elevation data in sea‐level rise (SLR) adaptation planning. However, we know little about to what extent the improved models and data could actually lead to better conservation outcomes under SLR. This is important to know because high‐resolution data are likely to not be available in some data‐poor coastal areas in the world and running more complicated coastal impact models is relatively time‐consuming, expensive, and requires assistance by qualified experts and technicians. We address this research question in the context of identifying conservation priorities in response to SLR. Specifically, we investigated the conservation value of using more accurate light detection and ranging (Lidar)‐based digital elevation data and process‐based coastal land‐cover change models (Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model, SLAMM) to identify conservation priorities versus simple “bathtub” models based on the relatively coarse National Elevation Dataset (NED) in a coastal region of northeast Florida. We compared conservation outcomes identified by reserve design software (Zonation) using three different model dataset combinations (Bathtub–NED, Bathtub–Lidar, and SLAMM–Lidar). The comparisons show that the conservation priorities are significantly different with different combinations of coastal impact models and elevation dataset inputs. The research suggests that it is valuable to invest in more accurate coastal impact models and elevation datasets in SLR adaptive conservation planning because this model–dataset combination could improve conservation outcomes under SLR. Less accurate coastal impact models, including ones created using coarser Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data can still be useful when better data and models are not available or feasible, but results need to be appropriately assessed and communicated. A future research priority is to investigate how conservation priorities may vary among different SLR scenarios when different combinations of model‐data inputs are used.     

Current dynamics and predicted vulnerability to sea‐level rise of a threatened Bittern Botaurus stellaris population

The decline of the Bittern Botaurus stellaris has long been symbolic of wetland habitat loss and fragmentation across western Europe. Wetland restoration and creation activity, targeted at Bittern, has been ongoing in the UK for more than 10 years and the overall numbers of occupied sites has increased five‐fold in that time. The strong recovery, whilst cause for celebration, disguises the continued precariousness of the population. This recovery has predominantly been fuelled by chick productivity from three sites in coastal Suffolk and there is increasing awareness that these sites are in immediate danger from rising sea levels. A key question is whether any loss of these key sites to coastal flooding matters to the UK Bittern population. A cautious approach to mathematical modelling of the sensitivity of the UK Bittern population to sea‐level rise events suggests that we should be concerned about the long‐term future. Our models demonstrate the sensitivity of the UK population to changes in chick survival and suggest that the growth of the UK Bittern population would be negatively affected by the loss of even a proportion of nests from these three key sites. These findings prompt the need for a multi‐layered conservation strategy to meet this dynamic challenge. A potential way forward is discussed.     

The impact of sea‐level rise on Snowy Plovers in Florida: integrating geomorphological,habitat, and metapopulation models

Sea‐level rise (SLR) is a projected consequence of global climate change that will result in complex changes in coastal ecosystems. These changes will cause transitions among coastal habitat types, which will be compounded by human‐made barriers to the gradual inland migration of these habitat types. The effect of these changes on the future viability of coastal species will depend on the habitat requirements and population dynamics of these species. Thus, realistic assessments of the impact of SLR require linking geomorphological models with habitat and population models. In this study, we implemented a framework that allows this linkage, and demonstrated its feasibility to assess the effect of SLR on the viability of the Snowy Plover population in Florida. The results indicate that SLR will cause a decline in suitable habitat and carrying capacity for this species, and an increase in the risk of its extinction and decline. The model projected that the population size will decline faster than the area of habitat or carrying capacity, demonstrating the necessity of incorporating population dynamics in assessing the impacts of SLR on coastal species. The results were most sensitive to uncertainties in survival rate and fecundity, and suggested that future studies on this species should focus on the average and variability of these demographic rates and their dependence on population density. The effect of SLR on this species’ viability was qualitatively similar with most alternative models that used the extreme values of each uncertain parameter, indicating that the results are robust to uncertainties in the model.     

The role of genetic structure in the adaptive divergence of populations experiencing saltwater intrusion due to relative sea‐level rise

Saltwater intrusion into estuaries creates stressful conditions for nektonic species. Previous studies have shown that Gambusia affinis populations with exposure to saline environments develop genetic adaptations for increased survival during salinity stress. Here, we evaluate the genetic structure of G. affinis populations, previously shown to have adaptations for increased salinity tolerance, and determine the impact of selection and gene flow on structure of these populations. We found that gene flow was higher between populations experiencing different salinity regimes within an estuary than between similar marsh types in different estuaries, suggesting the development of saline‐tolerant phenotypes due to local adaptation. There was limited evidence of genetic structure along a salinity gradient, and only some of the genetic variation among sites was correlated with salinity. Our results suggest limited structure, combined with selection to saltwater intrusion, results in phenotypic divergence in spite of a lack of physical barriers to gene flow.     

Relative sea‐level change regulates organic carbon accumulation in coastal habitats

Because coastal habitats store large amounts of organic carbon (C_org), the conservation and restoration of these habitats are considered to be important measures for mitigating global climate change. Although future sea‐level rise is predicted to change the characteristics of these habitats, its impact on their rate of C_org sequestration is highly uncertain. Here we used historical depositional records to show that relative sea‐level (RSL) changes regulated C_org accumulation rates in boreal contiguous seagrass–saltmarsh habitats. Age–depth modeling and geological and biogeochemical approaches indicated that C_org accumulation rates varied as a function of changes in depositional environments and habitat relocations. In particular, C_org accumulation rates were enhanced in subtidal seagrass meadows during times of RSL rise, which were caused by postseismic land subsidence and climate change. Our findings identify historical analogs for the future impact of RSL rise driven by global climate change on rates of C_org sequestration in coastal habitats.     

Assessing climate change associated sea‐level rise impacts on sea turtle nesting beaches using drones,photogrammetry and a novel GPS system

Climate change associated sea‐level rise (SLR) is expected to have profound impacts on coastal areas, affecting many species, including sea turtles which depend on these habitats for egg incubation. Being able to accurately model beach topography using digital terrain models (DTMs) is therefore crucial to project SLR impacts and develop effective conservation strategies. Traditional survey methods are typically low‐cost with low accuracy or high‐cost with high accuracy. We present a novel combination of drone‐based photogrammetry and a low‐cost and portable real‐time kinematic (RTK) GPS to create DTMs which are highly accurate (<10 cm error) and visually realistic. This methodology is ideal for surveying coastal sites, can be broadly applied to other species and habitats, and is a relevant tool in supporting the development of Specially Protected Areas. Here, we applied this method as a case‐study to project three SLR scenarios (0.48, 0.63 and 1.20 m) and assess the future vulnerability and viability of a key nesting habitat for sympatric loggerhead (Caretta caretta) and green turtle (Chelonia mydas) at a key rookery in the Mediterranean. We combined the DTM with 5 years of nest survey data describing location and clutch depth, to identify (a) regions with highest nest densities, (b) nest elevation by species and beach, and (c) estimated proportion of nests inundated under each SLR scenario. On average, green turtles nested at higher elevations than loggerheads (1.8 m vs. 1.32 m, respectively). However, because green turtles dig deeper nests than loggerheads (0.76 m vs. 0.50 m, respectively), these were at similar risk of inundation. For a SLR of 1.2 m, we estimated a loss of 67.3% for loggerhead turtle nests and 59.1% for green turtle nests. Existing natural and artificial barriers may affect the ability of these nesting habitats to remain suitable for nesting through beach migration.     

Linking micro‐ and macroevolutionary perspectives to evaluate the role of Quaternary sea‐level oscillations in island diversification

With shifts in island area, isolation, and cycles of island fusion–fission, the role of Quaternary sea‐level oscillations as drivers of diversification is complex and not well understood. Here, we conduct parallel comparisons of population and species divergence between two island areas of equivalent size that have been affected differently by sea‐level oscillations, with the aim to understand the micro‐ and macroevolutionary dynamics associated with sea‐level change. Using genome‐wide datasets for a clade of seven Amphiacusta ground cricket species endemic to the Puerto Rico Bank (PRB), we found consistently deeper interspecific divergences and higher population differentiation across the unfragmented Western PRB, in comparison to the currently fragmented Eastern PRB that has experienced extreme changes in island area and connectivity during the Quaternary. We evaluate alternative hypotheses related to the microevolutionary processes (population splitting, extinction, and merging) that regulate the frequency of completed speciation across the PRB. Our results suggest that under certain combinations of archipelago characteristics and taxon traits, the repeated changes in island area and connectivity may create an opposite effect to the hypothesized “species pump” action of oscillating sea levels. Our study highlights how a microevolutionary perspective can complement current macroecological work on the Quaternary dynamics of island biodiversity.     

Faunal response to sea‐level and climate change in a short‐lived seaway: Jurassic of the Western Interior,USA

Understanding how regional ecosystems respond to sea‐level and environmental perturbations is a main challenge in palaeoecology. Here we use quantitative abundance estimates, integrated within a sequence stratigraphic and environmental framework, to reconstruct benthic community changes through the 13 myr history of the Jurassic Sundance Seaway in the western United States. Sundance Seaway communities are notable for their low richness and high dominance relative to most areas globally in the Jurassic, and this probably reflects steep temperature and salinity gradients along the 2000 km length of the Seaway that hindered colonization of species from the open ocean. Ordination of samples shows a main turnover event at the Middle–Upper Jurassic transition, which coincided with a shift from carbonate to siliciclastic depositional systems in the Seaway, probably initiated by northward drift from subtropical latitudes to more humid temperate latitudes, and possibly global cooling. Turnover was not uniform across the onshore–offshore gradient, but was higher in offshore environments. The higher resilience of onshore communities to third‐order sea‐level fluctuations and to the change from a carbonate to a siliciclastic system was driven by a few abundant eurytopic species that persisted from the opening to the closing of the Seaway. Lower stability in offshore facies was instead controlled by the presence of more volatile stenotopic species. Such increased onshore stability in community composition contrasts with the well‐documented onshore increase in taxonomic turnover rates, and this study underscores how ecological analyses of relative abundance may contrast with taxonomically based analyses. We also demonstrate the importance of a stratigraphic palaeobiological approach to reconstructing the links between environmental and faunal gradients, and how their evolution through time produces local stratigraphic changes in community composition.     

Climate and sea‐level changes across a shallow marine Cretaceous–Palaeogene boundary succession in Patagonia,Argentina

Upper Maastrichtian to lower Paleocene, coarse‐grained deposits of the Lefipán Formation in Chubut Province, (Patagonia, Argentina) provide an opportunity to study environmental changes across the Cretaceous–Palaeogene (K–Pg) boundary in a shallow marine depositional environment. Marine palynological and organic geochemical analyses were performed on the K–Pg boundary interval of the Lefipán Formation at the San Ramón section. The palynological and organic geochemical records from the San Ramón K–Pg boundary section are characteristic of a highly dynamic, nearshore setting. High abundances of terrestrial palynomorphs, high BIT‐index values and the occasional presence of plant fossils are indicative of a large input of terrestrial organic material. The organic‐walled dinoflagellate cyst (dinocyst) assemblage is generally dominated by Senegalinium and other peridinioid dinocyst taxa, indicative of high‐nutrient conditions and decreased salinities, probably associated with a large fluvial input. The reconstructed sea surface temperatures range from 25°C to 27°C, in accordance with the tropical climate inferred by palynological and megafloral studies. As in the Bajada del Jagüel section, ~500 km north‐north‐east of San Ramón, peaks of Senegalinium spp. were recorded below and above the K–Pg boundary, possibly related to enhanced runoff resulting from more humid climatic conditions. The lithological, palynological and organic geochemical records suggest the occurrence of a sea‐level regression across the K–Pg boundary, resulting in a hiatus directly at the boundary in both sections, followed by a transgression in the Danian.     

Reticulate evolution and sea‐level fluctuations together drove species diversification of slipper orchids (Paphiopedilum) in South‐East Asia

South‐East Asia covers four of the world's biodiversity hotspots, showing high species diversity and endemism. Owing to the successive expansion and contraction of distribution and the fragmentation by geographical barriers, the tropical flora greatly diversified in this region during the Tertiary, but the evolutionary tempo and mode of species diversity remain poorly investigated. Paphiopedilum, the largest genus of slipper orchids comprising nearly 100 species, is mainly distributed in South‐East Asia, providing an ideal system for exploring how plant species diversity was shaped in this region. Here, we investigated the evolutionary history of this genus with eight cpDNA regions and four low‐copy nuclear genes. Discordance between gene trees and network analysis indicates that reticulate evolution occurred in the genus. Ancestral area reconstruction suggests that vicariance and long‐distance dispersal together led to its current distribution. Diversification rate variation was detected and strongly correlated with the species diversity in subg. Paphiopedilum (~80 species). The shift of speciation rate in subg. Paphiopedilum was coincident with sea‐level fluctuations in the late Cenozoic, which could have provided ecological opportunities for speciation and created bridges or barriers for gene flow. Moreover, some other factors (e.g. sympatric distribution, incomplete reproductive barriers and clonal propagation) might also be advantageous for the formation and reproduction of hybrid species. In conclusion, our study suggests that the interplay of reticulate evolution and sea‐level fluctuations has promoted the diversification of the genus Paphiopedilum and sheds light into the evolution of Orchidaceae and the historical processes of plant species diversification in South‐East Asia.