Multiple attractors and boundary crises in a tri-trophic food chain

The asymptotic behaviour of a model of a tri-trophic food chain in the chemostat is analysed in detail. The Monod growth model is used for all trophic levels, yielding a non-linear dynamical system of four ordinary differential equations. Mass conservation makes it possible to reduce the dimension by 1 for the study of the asymptotic dynamic behaviour. The intersections of the orbits with a Poincaré plane, after the transient has died out, yield a two-dimensional Poincaré next-return map. When chaotic behaviour occurs, all image points of this next-return map appear to lie close to a single curve in the intersection plane. This motivated the study of a one-dimensional bi-modal, non-invertible map of which the graph resembles this curve. We will show that the bifurcation structure of the food chain model can be understood in terms of the local and global bifurcations of this one-dimensional map. Homoclinic and heteroclinic connecting orbits and their global bifurcations are discussed also by relating them to their counterparts for a two-dimensional map which is invertible like the next-return map. In the global bifurcations two homoclinic or two heteroclinic orbits collide and disappear. In the food chain model two attractors coexist; a stable limit cycle where the top-predator is absent and an interior attractor. In addition there is a saddle cycle. The stable manifold of this limit cycle forms the basin boundary of the interior attractor. We will show that this boundary has a complicated structure when there are heteroclinic orbits from a saddle equilibrium to this saddle limit cycle. A homoclinic bifurcation to a saddle limit cycle will be associated with a boundary crisis where the chaotic attractor disappears suddenly when a bifurcation parameter is varied. Thus, similar to a tangent local bifurcation for equilibria or limit cycles, this homoclinic global bifurcation marks a region in the parameter space where the top-predator goes extinct. The 'Paradox of Enrichment' says that increasing the concentration of nutrient input can cause destabilization of the otherwise stable interior equilibrium of a bi-trophic food chain. For a tri-trophic food chain enrichment of the environment can even lead to extinction of the highest trophic level.     

Ecoepidemic models with prey group defense and feeding saturation

In this paper we consider a model for the herd behavior of prey, that are subject to attacks by specialist predators. The latter are affected by a transmissible disease. With respect to other recently introduced models of the same nature, we focus here our attention to the possible feeding satiation phenomenon. The system dynamics is thoroughly investigated, to show the occurrence of several types of bifurcations. In addition to the transcritical and Hopf bifurcation that occur commonly in predator–prey system also a zero-Hopf and a global bifurcation occur. The Hopf and the global bifurcation occur only in the disease-free (so purely demographic) system. The latter is a heteroclinic connection for the between saddle equilibrium points where a stable limit cycle is disrupted and where the system disease-free collapses while in a parameter space region the endemic system exists stably.     

Analysis of chaotic oscillations induced in two coupled Wilson–Cowan models

Although it is known that two coupled Wilson–Cowan models with reciprocal connections induce aperiodic oscillations, little attention has been paid to the dynamical mechanism for such oscillations so far. In this study, we aim to elucidate the fundamental mechanism to induce the aperiodic oscillations in the coupled model. First, aperiodic oscillations observed are investigated for the case when the connections are unidirectional and when the input signal is a periodic oscillation. By the phase portrait analysis, we determine that the aperiodic oscillations are caused by periodically forced state transitions between a stable equilibrium and a stable limit cycle attractors around the saddle-node and saddle separatrix loop bifurcation points. It is revealed that the dynamical mechanism where the state crosses over the saddle-node and saddle separatrix loop bifurcations significantly contributes to the occurrence of chaotic oscillations forced by a periodic input. In addition, this mechanism can also give rise to chaotic oscillations in reciprocally connected Wilson–Cowan models. These results suggest that the dynamic attractor transition underlies chaotic behaviors in two coupled Wilson–Cowan oscillators.     

Modelling autonomous oscillations in the human pupil light reflex using non-linear delay-differential equations

Neurophysiological and anatomical observations are used to derive a non-linear delay-differential equation for the pupil light reflex with negative feedback. As the gain or the time delay in the reflex is increased, a supercritical Hopf bifurcation occurs from a stable fixed point to a stable limit cycle oscillation in pupil area. A Hopf bifurcation analysis is used to determine the conditions for instability and the period and amplitude of these oscillations. The more complex waveforms typical of the occurrence of higher order bifurcations were not seen in numerical simulations of the model. This model provides a general framework to study the different types of dynamical behaviors which can be produced by the pupil light reflex, e.g. edge-light pupil cycling.     

Homoclinic and heteroclinic orbits to a cycle in a tri-trophic food chain

 The asymptotic behavior of a tri-trophic food chain model is studied. The analysis is carried out numerically, by finding both local and global bifurcations of equilibria and limit cycles. The existence of transversal homoclinic orbits to a limit cycle is shown. The appearance of homoclinic orbits, by moving through a homoclinic bifurcation point, is associated with the sudden disappearance of a chaotic attractor. A homoclinic bifurcation curve, which bounds a region of extinction, is continued through a two-dimensional parameter space. Heteroclinic orbits from an equilibrium to a limit cycle are computed. The existence of these heteroclinic orbits has important consequences on the domains of attraction. Continuation of non-transversal heteroclinic orbits through parameter space shows the existence of two codimension-two bifurcations points, where the saddle cycle is non-hyperbolic. The results are summarized by dividing the parameter space in subregions with different asymptotic behavior. Received: 25 February 1998 / Revised version: 19 August 1998     

Consequences of symbiosis for food web dynamics

Basic Lotka-Volterra type models in which mutualism (a type of symbiosis where the two populations benefit both) is taken into account, may give unbounded solutions. We exclude such behaviour using explicit mass balances and study the consequences of symbiosis for the long-term dynamic behaviour of a three species system, two prey and one predator species in the chemostat. We compose a theoretical food web where a predator feeds on two prey species that have a symbiotic relationships. In addition to a species-specific resource, the two prey populations consume the products of the partner population as well. In turn, a common predator forages on these prey populations. The temporal change in the biomass and the nutrient densities in the reactor is described by ordinary differential equations (ODE). Since products are recycled, the dynamics of these abiotic materials must be taken into account as well, and they are described by odes in a similar way as the abiotic nutrients. We use numerical bifurcation analysis to assess the long-term dynamic behaviour for varying degrees of symbiosis. Attractors can be equilibria, limit cycles and chaotic attractors depending on the control parameters of the chemostat reactor. These control parameters that can be experimentally manipulated are the nutrient density of the inflow medium and the dilution rate. Bifurcation diagrams for the three species web with a facultative symbiotic association between the two prey populations, are similar to that of a bi-trophic food chain; nutrient enrichment leads to oscillatory behaviour. Predation combined with obligatory symbiotic prey-interactions has a stabilizing effect, that is, there is stable coexistence in a larger part of the parameter space than for a bi-trophic food chain. However, combined with a large growth rate of the predator, the food web can persist only in a relatively small region of the parameter space. Then, two zero-pair bifurcation points are the organizing centers. In each of these points, in addition to a tangent, transcritical and Hopf bifurcation a global heteroclinic bifurcation is emanating. This heteroclinic cycle connects two saddle equilibria where the predator is absent. Under parameter variation the period of the stable limit cycle goes to infinity and the cycle tends to the heteroclinic cycle. At this global bifurcation point this cycle breaks and the boundary of the basin of attraction disappears abruptly because the separatrix disappears together with the cycle. As a result, it becomes possible that a stable two-nutrient–two-prey population system becomes unstable by invasion of a predator and eventually the predator goes extinct together with the two prey populations, that is, the complete food web is destroyed. This is a form of over-exploitation by the predator population of the two symbiotic prey populations. When obligatory symbiotic prey-interactions are modelled with Liebigs minimum law, where growth is limited by the most limiting resource, more complicated types of bifurcations are found. This results from the fact that the Jacobian matrix changes discontinuously with respect to a varying parameter when another resource becomes most limiting.Revised version: 21 July 2003     

Complex Dynamics in an Eco-epidemiological Model

The presence of infectious diseases can dramatically change the dynamics of ecological systems. By studying an SI-type disease in the predator population of a Rosenzweig–MacArthur model, we find a wealth of complex dynamics that do not exist in the absence of the disease. Numerical solutions indicate the existence of saddle–node and subcritical Hopf bifurcations, turning points and branching in periodic solutions, and a period-doubling cascade into chaos. This means that there are regions of bistability, in which the disease can have both a stabilising and destabilising effect. We also find tristability, which involves an endemic torus (or limit cycle), an endemic equilibrium and a disease-free limit cycle. The endemic torus seems to disappear via a homoclinic orbit. Notably, some of these dynamics occur when the basic reproduction number is less than one, and endemic situations would not be expected at all. The multistable regimes render the eco-epidemic system very sensitive to perturbations and facilitate a number of regime shifts, some of which we find to be irreversible.     

Ecological consequences of global bifurcations in some food chain models

Food chain models of ordinary differential equations (ode’s) are often used in ecology to gain insight in the dynamics of populations of species, and the interactions of these species with each other and their environment. One powerful analysis technique is bifurcation analysis, focusing on the changes in long-term (asymptotic) behaviour under parameter variation. For the detection of local bifurcations there exists standardised software, but until quite recently most software did not include any capabilities for the detection and continuation of global bifurcations. We focus here on the occurrence of global bifurcations in four food chain models, and discuss the implications of their occurrence. In two stoichiometric models (one piecewise continuous, one smooth) there exists a homoclinic bifurcation, that results in the disappearance of a limit cycle attractor. Instead, a stable positive equilibrium becomes the global attractor. The models are also capable of bistability. In two three-dimensional models a Shil’nikov homoclinic bifurcation functions as the organising centre of chaos, while tangencies of homoclinic cycle-to-cycle connections ‘cut’ the chaotic attractors, which is associated with boundary crises. In one model this leads to extinction of the top predator, while in the other model hysteresis occurs. The types of ecological events occurring because of a global bifurcation will be categorized. Global bifurcations are always catastrophic, leading to the disappearance or merging of attractors. However, there is no 1-on-1 coupling between global bifurcation type and the possible ecological consequences. This only emphasizes the importance of including global bifurcations in the analysis of food chain models.     

Bifurcation control of the Morris–Lecar neuron model via a dynamic state-feedback control

In this paper, we address the control problem of bifurcations in the Morris–Lecar (ML) neuron model. With the use of a dynamic state-feedback control, two Hopf bifurcation points in the ML neuron model with Type II excitability can be relocated to new desired locations simultaneously. Also, with the proposed control law, the neuronal excitability characteristics can be transformed from Type I excitability to Type II excitability by changing the type of bifurcation, in which the neuron goes from quiescence to periodic spiking from a saddle node on an invariant circle bifurcation to a Hopf bifurcation. Simulation results are provided.     

Moving toward an unstable equilibrium: saddle nodes in population systems

1. We identify an unstable equilibrium with a two-dimensional stable manifold and a one-dimensional unstable manifold in a three-state variable (larva, pupa, adult) insect population growth model.
2. The saddle node forecasts that the time series of some initial numbers of larvae, pupae and adults are drawn closely to the unstable equilibrium before approaching the asymptotic stable attractor (a two-cycle), while the time series of other initial points are not.
3. Using two quantitative indices, we examine time series from a Tribolium experiment for evidence of the predicted saddle node. We conclude that a saddle node accounts for the transient dynamics in these data and for the differences between the transient behaviour of different replicates of the same experiment.     

双密度制约的Holling Ⅱ型捕食动力系统的定性分析

研究食饵具有非线性密度制约捕食者具有线性密度制约的HollingⅡ型捕食动力系统．以食饵的环境容纳量为分支参数,由Hopf分支得到小振幅极限环的存在性,同时也得到了正平衡点的全局稳定性和非小振幅极限环的存在唯一性的充分条件．     

具Holling-Ⅳ型功能反应函数的捕食者-食饵系统的定性分析(英文)

本文研究一类具Holling-Ⅳ型功能反应函数的捕食者-食饵模型.对模型进行定性分析得知系统正解都是有界的;因此,当平衡点不稳定,系统至少存在一稳定的极限环.本文还运用Poincare形式级数法,得到了正平衡点至多为二阶稳定细焦点的结论.并基于Hopf分支理论得知系统在一定条件下至少存在两个极限环.     

Eye movement instabilities and nystagmus can be predicted by a nonlinear dynamics model of the saccadic system

The study of eye movements and oculomotor disorders has, for four decades, greatly benefitted from the application of control theoretic concepts. This paper is an example of a complementary approach based on the theory of nonlinear dynamical systems. Recently, a nonlinear dynamics model of the saccadic system was developed, comprising a symmetric piecewise-smooth system of six first-order autonomous ordinary differential equations. A preliminary numerical investigation of the model revealed that in addition to generating normal saccades, it could also simulate inaccurate saccades, and the oscillatory instability known as congenital nystagmus (CN). By varying the parameters of the model, several types of CN oscillations were produced, including jerk, bidirectional jerk and pendular nystagmus. The aim of this study was to investigate the bifurcations and attractors of the model, in order to obtain a classification of the simulated oculomotor behaviours. The application of standard stability analysis techniques, together with numerical work, revealed that the equations have a rich bifurcation structure. In addition to Hopf, homoclinic and saddlenode bifurcations organised by a Takens-Bogdanov point, the equations can undergo nonsmooth pitchfork bifurcations and nonsmooth gluing bifurcations. Evidence was also found for the existence of Hopf-initiated canards. The simulated jerk CN waveforms were found to correspond to a pair of post-canard symmetry-related limit cycles, which exist in regions of parameter space where the equations are a slow-fast system. The slow and fast phases of the simulated oscillations were attributed to the geometry of the corresponding slow manifold. The simulated bidirectional jerk and pendular waveforms were attributed to a symmetry invariant limit cycle produced by the gluing of the asymmetric cycles. In contrast to control models of the oculomotor system, the bifurcation analysis places clear restrictions on which kinds of behaviour are likely to be associated with each other in parameter space, enabling predictions to be made regarding the possible changes in the oscillation type that may be observed upon changing the model parameters. The analysis suggests that CN is one of a range of oculomotor disorders associated with a pathological saccadic braking signal, and that jerk and pendular nystagmus are the most probable oscillatory instabilities. Additionally, the transition from jerk CN to bidirectional jerk and pendular nystagmus observed experimentally when the gaze angle or attention level is changed is attributed to a gluing bifurcation. This suggests the possibility of manipulating the waveforms of subjects with jerk CN experimentally to produce waveforms with an extended foveation period, thereby improving visual resolution.     

Bifurcations in haploid and diploid sequence space models

 Deterministic models of mutation and selection in the space of (binary) nucleotide-type sequences have been investigated for haploid populations during the past 25 years, and, recently, for diploid populations as well. These models, in particular their ‘error thresholds’, have mainly been analyzed by numerical methods and perturbation techniques. We consider them here by means of bifurcation theory, which improves our understanding of both equilibrium and dynamical properties. In a caricature obtained from the original model by neglecting back mutation to the favourable allele, the familiar error threshold of the haploid two-class model turns out to be a simple transcritical bifurcation, whereas its diploid counterpart exhibits an additional saddle node. This corresponds to a second error threshold. Three-class models with neutral spaces of unequal size introduce further features. Such are a global bifurcation in haploid populations, and simple examples of Hopf bifurcations (as predicted by Akin’s theorem) in the diploid case. Received 13 June 1995; received in revised form 26 July 1996     

Epidemiological effects of seasonal oscillations in birth rates

Seasonal oscillations in birth rates are ubiquitous in human populations. These oscillations might play an important role in infectious disease dynamics because they induce seasonal variation in the number of susceptible individuals that enter populations. We incorporate seasonality of birth rate into the standard, deterministic susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) and susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) epidemic models and identify parameter regions in which birth seasonality can be expected to have observable epidemiological effects. The SIR and SEIR models yield similar results if the infectious period in the SIR model is compared with the "infected period" (the sum of the latent and infectious periods) in the SEIR model. For extremely transmissible pathogens, large amplitude birth seasonality can induce resonant oscillations in disease incidence, bifurcations to stable multi-year epidemic cycles, and hysteresis. Typical childhood infectious diseases are not sufficiently transmissible for their asymptotic dynamics to be likely to exhibit such behaviour. However, we show that fold and period-doubling bifurcations generically occur within regions of parameter space where transients are phase-locked onto cycles resembling the limit cycles beyond the bifurcations, and that these phase-locking regions extend to arbitrarily small amplitude of seasonality of birth rates. Consequently, significant epidemiological effects of birth seasonality may occur in practice in the form of transient dynamics that are sustained by demographic stochasticity.     

The dynamics of two-species allelopathic competition with optimal harvesting

This paper analyses a bionomic model of two competitive species in the presence of toxicity with different harvesting efforts. An interesting dynamics in the first quadrant is analysed and two saddle-node bifurcations are detected for different bifurcation parameters. It is noted that under certain parametric restrictions, the model has a unique positive equilibrium point that is globally asymptotically stable whenever it is locally stable. It is also noted that the model can have zero, one or two feasible equilibria appearing through saddle-node bifurcations. The non-existence of a limit cycle in the interior of the first quadrant is also discussed using the Poincare-Dulac criteria. The saddle-node bifurcations are studied using Sotomayor's theorem. Numerical simulations are carried out to validate the analytical findings. The conditions for the existence of bionomic equilibria are discussed and an optimal harvesting policy is derived using Pontryagin's maximum principle.     

The dynamics of two-species allelopathic competition with optimal harvesting

This paper analyses a bionomic model of two competitive species in the presence of toxicity with different harvesting efforts. An interesting dynamics in the first quadrant is analysed and two saddle-node bifurcations are detected for different bifurcation parameters. It is noted that under certain parametric restrictions, the model has a unique positive equilibrium point that is globally asymptotically stable whenever it is locally stable. It is also noted that the model can have zero, one or two feasible equilibria appearing through saddle-node bifurcations. The non-existence of a limit cycle in the interior of the first quadrant is also discussed using the Poincare–Dulac criteria. The saddle-node bifurcations are studied using Sotomayor's theorem. Numerical simulations are carried out to validate the analytical findings. The conditions for the existence of bionomic equilibria are discussed and an optimal harvesting policy is derived using Pontryagin's maximum principle.     

一类具分段常数变量的捕食-食饵系统的Neimark-Sacker分支

讨论了具时滞与分段常数变量的捕食-食饵生态模型的稳定性及Neimark-Sacker分支;通过计算得到连续模型对应的差分模型,基于特征值理论和Schur-Cohn判据得到正平衡态局部渐进稳定的充分条件;以食饵的内禀增长率为分支参数,运用分支理论和中心流形定理分析了Neimark-Sacker分支的存在性与稳定性条件;通过举例和数值模拟验证了理论的正确性。     

Mathematical modeling of the population dynamics of a distinct interactions type system with local dispersal

Distinct biotic interactions in multi-species communities are a ubiquitous force in the natural ecosystem, and this force is an essential determinant of community stability and species coexistence outcomes. We conduct numerical simulations and bifurcation analysis of partial differential equations to gain better understanding and ecological insights into how predation (a), predator handling time (h), and local dispersal affect multi-species community dynamics. This system consists of resource-mutualist-exploiter-competitor interactions and local dispersal. From the inspection of our numerical simulations and co-dimension one bifurcation analysis findings, we discover several critical values that correspond to transcritical bifurcation, subcritical and supercritical Hopf bifurcations. This occurs as we vary the bifurcation parameters a and h in this complex ecological system under symmetric and asymmetric dispersal scenarios. Furthermore, the interplay between these local bifurcation points results in an exciting co-dimension two bifurcations, i.e., Bogdanov-Takens and cusp bifurcation points, respectively, which act as the synchronization points in this complex ecological system. From an ecological viewpoint, we find that (i) the effect of the no-dispersal scenario supports the maintenance of species biodiversity when the predation strength is moderate; (ii) symmetric dispersal induces both subcritical and supercritical Hopf bifurcation and support species diversity for moderate predation strength; and (iii) asymmetric dispersal promotes species diversity as it simplifies the bifurcation changes in dynamics by eliminating the subcritical bifurcations that trigger uncertainty, and this dispersal mechanism mediates species coexistence outcomes. Fundamentally, stable limit cycles have been reported as predator handling time varies in some ecological models; however, we observed in our bifurcation analysis the emergence of the unstable limit cycle as predator handling time changes. We discover that intense predator handling time destabilizes this complex ecological community. In general, our results demonstrate the influential roles of predation, predator handling time, and local dispersal in determining this system’s coexistence dynamics. This knowledge provides a better understanding of species conservation and biological control management.     

Robustness of early warning signals for catastrophic and non‐catastrophic transitions

Early warning signals (EWS) are statistical indicators that a rapid regime shift may be forthcoming. Their development has given ecologists hope of predicting rapid regime shifts before they occur. Accurate predictions, however, rely on the signals being appropriate to the system in question. Most of the EWS commonly applied in ecology have been studied in the context of one specific type of regime shift (the type brought on by a saddle‐node bifurcation, at which one stable equilibrium point collides with an unstable equilibrium and disappears) under one particular perturbation scheme (temporally uncorrelated noise that perturbs the net population growth rate in a density independent way). Whether and when these EWS can be applied to other ecological situations remains relatively unknown, and certainly underappreciated. We study a range of models with different types of dynamical transitions (including rapid regime shifts) and several perturbation schemes (density‐dependent uncorrelated or temporally‐correlated noise) and test the ability of EWS to warn of an approaching transition. We also test the sensitivity of our results to the amount of available pre‐transition data and various decisions that must be made in the analysis (i.e. the rolling window size and smoothing bandwidth used to compute the EWS). We find that EWS generally work well to signal an impending saddle‐node bifurcation, regardless of the autocorrelation or intensity of the noise. However, EWS do not reliably appear as expected for other types of transition. EWS were often very sensitive to the length of the pre‐transition time series analyzed, and usually less sensitive to other decisions. We conclude that the EWS perform well for saddle‐node bifurcation in a range of noise environments, but different methods should be used to predict other types of regime shifts. As a consequence, knowledge of the mechanism behind a possible regime shift is needed before EWS can be used to predict it.