Pathogen-Host Associations and Predicted Range Shifts of Human Monkeypox in Response to Climate Change in Central Africa

Climate change is predicted to result in changes in the geographic ranges and local prevalence of infectious diseases, either through direct effects on the pathogen, or indirectly through range shifts in vector and reservoir species. To better understand the occurrence of monkeypox virus (MPXV), an emerging Orthopoxvirus in humans, under contemporary and future climate conditions, we used ecological niche modeling techniques in conjunction with climate and remote-sensing variables. We first created spatially explicit probability distributions of its candidate reservoir species in Africa''s Congo Basin. Reservoir species distributions were subsequently used to model current and projected future distributions of human monkeypox (MPX). Results indicate that forest clearing and climate are significant driving factors of the transmission of MPX from wildlife to humans under current climate conditions. Models under contemporary climate conditions performed well, as indicated by high values for the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC), and tests on spatially randomly and non-randomly omitted test data. Future projections were made on IPCC 4^th Assessment climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2080, ranging from more conservative to more aggressive, and representing the potential variation within which range shifts can be expected to occur. Future projections showed range shifts into regions where MPX has not been recorded previously. Increased suitability for MPX was predicted in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. Models developed here are useful for identifying areas where environmental conditions may become more suitable for human MPX; targeting candidate reservoir species for future screening efforts; and prioritizing regions for future MPX surveillance efforts.     

Using Remote Sensing to Map the Risk of Human Monkeypox Virus in the Congo Basin

Although the incidence of human monkeypox has greatly increased in Central Africa over the last decade, resources for surveillance remain extremely limited. We conducted a geospatial analysis using existing data to better inform future surveillance efforts. Using active surveillance data collected between 2005 and 2007, we identified locations in Sankuru district, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) where there have been one or more cases of human monkeypox. To assess what taxa constitute the main reservoirs of monkeypox, we tested whether human cases were associated with (i) rope squirrels (Funisciurus sp.), which were implicated in monkeypox outbreaks elsewhere in the DRC in the 1980s, or (ii) terrestrial rodents in the genera Cricetomys and Graphiurus, which are believed to be monkeypox reservoirs in West Africa. Results suggest that the best predictors of human monkeypox cases are proximity to dense forests and associated habitat preferred by rope squirrels. The risk of contracting monkeypox is significantly greater near sites predicted to be habitable for squirrels (OR?=?1.32; 95% CI 1.08-1.63). We recommend that semi-deciduous rainforests with oil-palm, the rope squirrel's main food source, be prioritized for monitoring.     

Monkeypox virus: a re-emergent threat to humans

Human monkeypox (MPX) is a rare zoonotic infection characterized by smallpox-like signs and symptoms. It is caused by monkeypox virus (MPXV), a double stranded DNA virus belonging to the genus Orthopoxvirus. MPX was first identified in 1970 and mostly prevailed in the rural rainforests of Central and West Africa in the past. Outside Africa, MPX was reported in the United Kingdom, the USA, Israel, and Singapore. In 2022, the resurgence of MPX in Europe and elsewhere posed a potential threat to humans. MPXV was transmitted by the animals-human or human-human pathway, and the symptoms of MPXV infection are similar to that of smallpox, but in a milder form and with lower mortality (1%–10%). Although the smallpox vaccination has been shown to provide 85% protection against MPXV infection, and two anti-smallpox virus drugs have been approved to treat MPXV, there are still no specific vaccines and drugs against MPXV infection. Therefore it is urgent to take active measures including the adoption of novel anti-MPXV strategies to control the spread of MPXV and prevent MPX epidemic. In this review, we summarize the biological features, epidemiology, pathogenicity, laboratory diagnosis, and prevention and treatment strategies on MPXV. This review provides the basic knowledge for prevention and control of future outbreaks of this emerging infection.     

Human monkeypox

Human monkeypox, occurring in the tropical rainforest of west and central Africa, is regarded as the most important orthopoxvirus infection for epidemiological surveillance during the post-smallpox era. This disease, first recognized in Za?re in 1970 resembles smallpox clinically but differs epidemiologically. Clinical features, their evolution and sequelae of monkeypox could be compared with discrete ordinary or modified type of smallpox. A case-fatality rate of 14% has been observed but some cases can be exceedingly mild or atypical and may easily remain undetected and unreported. Pronounced lymphadenopathy has been the only clinical feature found commonly in monkeypox but not in smallpox. Fifty-seven cases of human monkeypox have occurred since 1970, in the tropical rainforests in six west and central African countries, the majority of them (45) being reported from Za?re. The disease appears to be more frequent in dry season. Children below ten years of age comprise 84% of the cases. Smallpox vaccination protects against monkeypox. Clusters of cases have been observed in certain areas within countries and within affected households. Human-to-human spread has possibly occurred seven times. No cases of possible tertiary spread were observed. The secondary attack rate among susceptible close household contacts was 10%, among all susceptible contacts 5%. This is much lower than that occurring with smallpox, which is between 25-40%. The limited avidity of monkeypox virus for human beings indicates that monkeypox is probably a zoonosis, although the animal reservoir(s) have not yet been identified. The low transmissibility, resulting in low frequency of disease in man indicates that monkeypox is not a public health problem. Human monkeypox has been a relatively newly recognized disease. Studies are in progress to identify the natural cycle of monkeypox virus and to define better its clinical and epidemiological characteristics. Special surveillance is maintained in endemic areas with the aim to provide assurance that in spite of waning immunity of the human population following cessation of the smallpox vaccination, the disease does not constitute a potential danger to man.     

The evolving epidemiology of monkeypox virus

Monkeypox, caused by the monkeypox virus (MPXV), is a zoonotic disease endemic mainly in West and Central Africa. As of 27 September 2022, human monkeypox has occurred in more than 100 countries (mostly in non-endemic regions) and caused over 66,000 confirmed cases, which differs from previous epidemics that mainly affected African countries. Due to the increasing number of confirmed cases worldwide, the World Health Organization (WHO) has declared the monkeypox outbreak as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on July 23, 2022. The international outbreak of human monkeypox represents a novel route of transmission for MPXV, with genital lesions as the primary infection, and the emergence of monkeypox in the current outbreak is also new, as novel variants emerge. Clinical physicians and scientists should be aware of this emerging situation, which presents a different scenario from previous outbreaks. In this review, we will discuss the molecular virology, evasion of antiviral immunity, epidemiology, evolution, and detection of MPXV, as well as prophylaxis and treatment strategies for monkeypox. This review also emphasizes the integration of relevant epidemiological data with genomic surveillance data to obtain real-time data, which could formulate prevention and control measures to curb this outbreak.     

Variola and monkeypox viruses utilize conserved mechanisms of virion motility and release that depend on abl and SRC family tyrosine kinases

Vaccinia virus (VacV) enters mammalian cells, replicates extranuclearly, and produces virions that move to the cell surface along microtubules, fuse with the plasma membrane, and move from infected cells toward apposing cells on actin-filled membranous protrusions or actin tails. To form actin tails, cell-associated enveloped virions (CEV) require Abl and Src family tyrosine kinases. Furthermore, release of CEV from the cell requires Abl but not Src family tyrosine kinases and is blocked by imatinib mesylate (STI-571; Gleevec), an Abl family kinase inhibitor used to treat chronic myelogenous leukemia in humans. Here we demonstrate that the Poxviridae family members monkeypox virus (MPX) and variola virus (VarV) use conserved mechanisms for actin motility and extracellular enveloped virion (EEV) release. Furthermore, we show that imatinib mesylate is effective in a mouse model of infection with VacV, whether delivered prophylactically or postinfection, and restricts spread of virions from the site of inoculation. While inhibitors of both Src and Abl family kinases, such as dasatinib (BMS-354825; Sprycel), are effective in limiting dissemination of VacV, VarV, and MPX in vitro, members of this class of drugs appear to have immunosuppressive effects in vivo that preclude their use as anti-infectives. Together, these data suggest a possible utility for imatinib mesylate in treating smallpox or MPX infections or complications associated with vaccination.     

Tenth anniversary of smallpox eradication: Results of epidemiological and virological surveillance and studies in the post-eradication period

In accordance with recommendations of the Global Commission on the certification of smallpox eradication for the 10-year period after the eradication of this infection, all suspected cases of smallpox have been thoroughly checked up, and in none of them the diagnosis of smallpox has been confirmed. The study of monkeypox in humans has revealed that this zoonosis is spread over a wider area than supposed earlier and covers 7 countries of Equatorial Africa, occurring most frequently in Zaire. In about 70% of cases of monkeypox in human the disease is contracted from animals serving as natural virus carriers and in about one-third of such cases, from humans having monkeypox. The infectivity of humans with monkeypox for persons having close contacts with them is somewhat lower (12.3%) than in smallpox when this characteristic varies from 37% to 88%. Monkeypox in humans may take an asymptomatic course. Some species of tropical squirrels serve as natural virus carriers. These investigations have also resulted in essential corrections being made in understanding the ecology of cowpox virus, another orthopoxvirus pathogenic for man. At least 5 species of rodents have proved to be of interest as natural carriers of cowpox virus.     

Comparison of West African and Congo Basin Monkeypox Viruses in BALB/c and C57BL/6 Mice

Although monkeypox virus (MPXV) studies in wild rodents and non-human primates have generated important knowledge regarding MPXV pathogenesis and inferences about disease transmission, it might be easier to dissect the importance of virulence factors and correlates of protection to MPXV in an inbred mouse model. Herein, we compared the two clades of MPXV via two routes of infection in the BALB/c and C57BL/6 inbred mice strains. Our studies show that similar to previous animal studies, the Congo Basin strain of MPXV was more virulent than West African MPXV in both mouse strains as evidenced by clinical signs. Although animals did not develop lesions as seen in human MPX infections, localized signs were apparent with the foot pad route of inoculation, primarily in the form of edema at the site of inoculation; while the Congo Basin intranasal route of infection led to generalized symptoms, primarily weight loss. We have determined that future studies with MPXV and laboratory mice would be very beneficial in understanding the pathogenesis of MPXV, in particular if used in in vivo imaging studies. Although this mouse model may not suffice as a model of human MPX disease, with an appropriate inbred mouse model, we can unravel many unknown aspects of MPX pathogenesis, including virulence factors, disease progression in rodent hosts, and viral shedding from infected animals. In addition, such a model can be utilized to test antivirals and the next generation of orthopoxvirus vaccines for their ability to alter the course of disease.     

猴痘的流行现状及防控

猴痘(monkeypox)是由猴痘病毒感染所致的人兽共患病,主要发生在非洲中部、西部地区。猴痘病毒可感染多种哺乳类动物,主要在动物中流行,人接触感染动物后可被传染。猴痘的临床表现与天花相似(发热、皮疹等),但症状较轻。天花疫苗接种可提供预防猴痘的免疫保护力。然而,因全球天花被消灭而停止接种天花疫苗后,猴痘成为最可能威胁人类的正痘病毒性疾病。近期,其散发病例在欧洲多地出现。2022年5月7日英国报道了猴痘疫情。随后,欧洲报道猴痘确诊和疑似病例超过100例。猴痘主要传播途径包括接触感染动物、与患者直接接触或间接接触。2022年5月20日,世界卫生组织就此次猴痘疫情召开了紧急会议,旨在提高对猴痘的认识,做好防范应对准备。世界卫生组织、美国疾病预防控制中心、英国卫生部门报告了相关疫情并制定了相应的防控措施。截至2022年5月28日我国尚无输入性猴痘报道,但因国际交往频繁等仍须提高警惕。本文介绍了猴痘流行现状及有关防控信息,以供借鉴。     

Ecological niche and geographic distribution of human monkeypox in Africa

Monkeypox virus, a zoonotic member of the genus Orthopoxviridae, can cause a severe, smallpox-like illness in humans. Monkeypox virus is thought to be endemic to forested areas of western and Central Africa. Considerably more is known about human monkeypox disease occurrence than about natural sylvatic cycles of this virus in non-human animal hosts. We use human monkeypox case data from Africa for 1970-2003 in an ecological niche modeling framework to construct predictive models of the ecological requirements and geographic distribution of monkeypox virus across West and Central Africa. Tests of internal predictive ability using different subsets of input data show the model to be highly robust and suggest that the distinct phylogenetic lineages of monkeypox in West Africa and Central Africa occupy similar ecological niches. High mean annual precipitation and low elevations were shown to be highly correlated with human monkeypox disease occurrence. The synthetic picture of the potential geographic distribution of human monkeypox in Africa resulting from this study should support ongoing epidemiologic and ecological studies, as well as help to guide public health intervention strategies to areas at highest risk for human monkeypox.     

季节性流感病毒与其他病原混合或继发感染的研究进展与思考

流感病毒包括甲(A)、乙(B)、丙(C)和丁(D)四种型。人流行性感冒是由甲型和乙型季节性流感病毒引起的一种急性呼吸道传染病。流感病毒感染患者主要表现出呼吸道症状,严重时可以导致肺炎。此外,与其他病毒、细菌和支原体等病原体混合或继发感染时,会增加流感患者的重症率和死亡率。近几年,流感病毒与其他病原协同感染的病例有增加趋势。本文归纳总结了流感病毒与其他病原混合及继发感染的研究现状,希望为流感病毒复杂感染情况的临床诊断和治疗方案的制定提供线索。     

Environmental Drivers of Monkeypox Transmission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

EcoHealth - Monkeypox (MPX) is an emergent severe zoonotic disease resembling that of smallpox. To date, most cases of human MPX have been reported in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)....     

Proteomic basis of the antibody response to monkeypox virus infection examined in cynomolgus macaques and a comparison to human smallpox vaccination

Monkeypox is a zoonotic viral disease that occurs primarily in Central and West Africa. A recent outbreak in the United States heightened public health concerns for susceptible human populations. Vaccinating with vaccinia virus to prevent smallpox is also effective for monkeypox due to a high degree of sequence conservation. Yet, the identity of antigens within the monkeypox virus proteome contributing to immune responses has not been described in detail. We compared antibody responses to monkeypox virus infection and human smallpox vaccination by using a protein microarray covering 92-95% (166-192 proteins) of representative proteomes from monkeypox viral clades of Central and West Africa, including 92% coverage (250 proteins) of the vaccinia virus proteome as a reference orthopox vaccine. All viral gene clones were verified by sequencing and purified recombinant proteins were used to construct the microarray. Serum IgG of cynomolgus macaques that recovered from monkeypox recognized at least 23 separate proteins within the orthopox proteome, while only 14 of these proteins were recognized by IgG from vaccinated humans. There were 12 of 14 antigens detected by sera of human vaccinees that were also recognized by IgG from convalescent macaques. The greatest level of IgG binding for macaques occurred with the structural proteins F13L and A33R, and the membrane scaffold protein D13L. Significant IgM responses directed towards A44R, F13L and A33R of monkeypox virus were detected before onset of clinical symptoms in macaques. Thus, antibodies from vaccination recognized a small number of proteins shared with pathogenic virus strains, while recovery from infection also involved humoral responses to antigens uniquely recognized within the monkeypox virus proteome.     

The changing epidemiology of human monkeypox—A potential threat? A systematic review

Monkeypox, a zoonotic disease caused by an orthopoxvirus, results in a smallpox-like disease in humans. Since monkeypox in humans was initially diagnosed in 1970 in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), it has spread to other regions of Africa (primarily West and Central), and cases outside Africa have emerged in recent years. We conducted a systematic review of peer-reviewed and grey literature on how monkeypox epidemiology has evolved, with particular emphasis on the number of confirmed, probable, and/or possible cases, age at presentation, mortality, and geographical spread. The review is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42020208269). We identified 48 peer-reviewed articles and 18 grey literature sources for data extraction. The number of human monkeypox cases has been on the rise since the 1970s, with the most dramatic increases occurring in the DRC. The median age at presentation has increased from 4 (1970s) to 21 years (2010–2019). There was an overall case fatality rate of 8.7%, with a significant difference between clades—Central African 10.6% (95% CI: 8.4%– 13.3%) vs. West African 3.6% (95% CI: 1.7%– 6.8%). Since 2003, import- and travel-related spread outside of Africa has occasionally resulted in outbreaks. Interactions/activities with infected animals or individuals are risk behaviors associated with acquiring monkeypox. Our review shows an escalation of monkeypox cases, especially in the highly endemic DRC, a spread to other countries, and a growing median age from young children to young adults. These findings may be related to the cessation of smallpox vaccination, which provided some cross-protection against monkeypox, leading to increased human-to-human transmission. The appearance of outbreaks beyond Africa highlights the global relevance of the disease. Increased surveillance and detection of monkeypox cases are essential tools for understanding the continuously changing epidemiology of this resurging disease.     

Human monkey pox: its clinico-epidemiological characteristics

During the course of the smallpox eradication programme, a new eruptive disease clinically resembling smallpox was discovered in Zaire. The disease, which was named monkeypox after the virus, is a zoonosis occurring sporadically in countries of western and central Africa with tropical rain forest. The studies carried out in Zaire from 1980 through 1985 showed that monkeypox affects mainly children in relatively small remote villages whose population has traditionally frequent contacts with wild animals. Apart from the wildlife, the virus can be transmitted from man to man, but among other sources of infection sick persons did not exceed 20%. Presumed human transmission has occurred in 38 out of 61 outbreaks of human monkeypox and only once reached the third and once the fourth generation; the transmission in all affected villages under observation has extinguished itself. Considering the sporadic and relatively rare occurrence of the disease and expected complications following the immunization with vaccinia which protects from monkeypox, introduction of mass vaccination in the areas at risk is hardly justified at present.     

Simple Technique for in Field Samples Collection in the Cases of Skin Rash Illness and Subsequent PCR Detection of Orthopoxviruses and Varicella Zoster Virus

Background

In case of outbreak of rash illness in remote areas, clinically discriminating monkeypox (MPX) from severe form of chickenpox and from smallpox remains a concern for first responders.

Objective

The goal of the study was therefore to use MPX and chickenpox outbreaks in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) as a test case for establishing a rapid and specific diagnosis in affected remote areas.

Methods

In 2008 and 2009, successive outbreaks of presumed MPX skin rash were reported in Bena Tshiadi, Yangala and Ndesha healthcare districts of the West Kasai province (DRC). Specimens consisting of liquid vesicle dried on filter papers or crusted scabs from healing patients were sampled by first responders. A field analytical facility was deployed nearby in order to carry out a real-time PCR (qPCR) assay using genus consensus primers, consensus orthopoxvirus (OPV) and smallpox-specific probes spanning over the 14 kD fusion protein encoding gene. A PCR-restriction fragment length polymorphism was used on-site as backup method to confirm the presence of monkeypox virus (MPXV) in samples. To complete the differential diagnosis of skin rash, chickenpox was tested in parallel using a commercial qPCR assay. In a post-deployment step, a MPXV-specific pyrosequencing was carried out on all biotinylated amplicons generated on-site in order to confirm the on-site results.

Results

Whereas MPXV proved to be the agent causing the rash illness outbreak in the Bena Tshiadi, VZV was the causative agent of the disease in Yangala and Ndesha districts. In addition, each on-site result was later confirmed by MPXV-specific pyrosequencing analysis without any discrepancy.

Conclusion

This experience of rapid on-site dual use DNA-based differential diagnosis of rash illnesses demonstrates the potential of combining tests specifically identifying bioterrorism agents and agents causing natural outbreaks. This opens the way to rapid on-site DNA-based identification of a broad spectrum of causative agents in remote areas.     

Elucidating the role of the complement control protein in monkeypox pathogenicity

Monkeypox virus (MPXV) causes a smallpox-like disease in humans. Clinical and epidemiological studies provide evidence of pathogenicity differences between two geographically distinct monkeypox virus clades: the West African and Congo Basin. Genomic analysis of strains from both clades identified a ～10 kbp deletion in the less virulent West African isolates sequenced to date. One absent open reading frame encodes the monkeypox virus homologue of the complement control protein (CCP). This modulatory protein prevents the initiation of both the classical and alternative pathways of complement activation. In monkeypox virus, CCP, also known as MOPICE, is a ～24 kDa secretory protein with sequence homology to this superfamily of proteins. Here we investigate CCP expression and its role in monkeypox virulence and pathogenesis. CCP was incorporated into the West African strain and removed from the Congo Basin strain by homologous recombination. CCP expression phenotypes were confirmed for both wild type and recombinant monkeypox viruses and CCP activity was confirmed using a C4b binding assay. To characterize the disease, prairie dogs were intranasally infected and disease progression was monitored for 30 days. Removal of CCP from the Congo Basin strain reduced monkeypox disease morbidity and mortality, but did not significantly decrease viral load. The inclusion of CCP in the West African strain produced changes in disease manifestation, but had no apparent effect on disease-associated mortality. This study identifies CCP as an important immuno-modulatory protein in monkeypox pathogenesis but not solely responsible for the increased virulence seen within the Congo Basin clade of monkeypox virus.     

Mass spectrometry detection of monkeypox virus: Comprehensive coverage for ranking the most responsive peptide markers

The recent and sudden outbreak of monkeypox in numerous non-endemic countries requires expanding its surveillance immediately and understanding its origin and spread. As learned from the COVID-19 pandemic, appropriate detection techniques are crucial to achieving such a goal. Mass spectrometry has the advantages of a rapid response, low analytical interferences, better precision, and easier multiplexing to detect various pathogens and their variants. In this proteomic dataset, we report experimental data on the proteome of the monkeypox virus (MPXV) recorded by state-of-the-art shotgun proteomics, including data-dependent and data-independent acquisition for comprehensive coverage. We highlighted 152 viral proteins, corresponding to an overall proteome coverage of 79.5 %. Among the 1371 viral peptides detected, 35 peptides with the most intense signals in mass spectrometry were selected, representing a subset of 13 viral proteins. Their relevance as potential candidate markers for virus detection by targeted mass spectrometry is discussed. This report should assist the rapid development of mass spectrometry-based tests to detect a pathogen of increasing concern.     

猴痘、天花病毒感染快速分子诊断荧光定量实时PCR方法的建立

目的:天花、猴痘可感染人并引起严重皮疹、发热等临床症状,均为烈性传染病,是潜在的生物恐怖因子,因此需要建立针对其感染的快速特异的诊断方法。方法:分别设计正痘病毒属通用型、天花病毒特异、猴痘病毒特异的引物与荧光标记探针,建立荧光定量实时PCR方法,对人工合成或模拟样本进行检测。结果:可在4h内对天花或猴痘病毒感染进行特异性鉴别诊断,检测灵敏度可达100拷贝/25μL反应体积。结论:本方法可作为一种检疫与反恐应急储备技术。     

Detecting Differential Transmissibilities That Affect the Size of Self-Limited Outbreaks

Our ability to respond appropriately to infectious diseases is enhanced by identifying differences in the potential for transmitting infection between individuals. Here, we identify epidemiological traits of self-limited infections (i.e. infections with an effective reproduction number satisfying ) that correlate with transmissibility. Our analysis is based on a branching process model that permits statistical comparison of both the strength and heterogeneity of transmission for two distinct types of cases. Our approach provides insight into a variety of scenarios, including the transmission of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in the Arabian peninsula, measles in North America, pre-eradication smallpox in Europe, and human monkeypox in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. When applied to chain size data for MERS-CoV transmission before 2014, our method indicates that despite an apparent trend towards improved control, there is not enough statistical evidence to indicate that has declined with time. Meanwhile, chain size data for measles in the United States and Canada reveal statistically significant geographic variation in , suggesting that the timing and coverage of national vaccination programs, as well as contact tracing procedures, may shape the size distribution of observed infection clusters. Infection source data for smallpox suggests that primary cases transmitted more than secondary cases, and provides a quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of control interventions. Human monkeypox, on the other hand, does not show evidence of differential transmission between animals in contact with humans, primary cases, or secondary cases, which assuages the concern that social mixing can amplify transmission by secondary cases. Lastly, we evaluate surveillance requirements for detecting a change in the human-to-human transmission of monkeypox since the cessation of cross-protective smallpox vaccination. Our studies lay the foundation for future investigations regarding how infection source, vaccination status or other putative transmissibility traits may affect self-limited transmission.