Modelling climate response to historical land cover change

In order to estimate the effect of historical land cover change (deforestation) on climate, we perform a set of experiments with a climate system model of intermediate complexity – CLIMBER-2. We focus on the biophysical effect of the land cover change on climate and do not explicitly account for the biogeochemical effect. A dynamic scenario of deforestation during the last millennium is formulated based on the rates of land conversion to agriculture. The deforestation scenario causes a global cooling of 0.35 °C with a more notable cooling of the northern hemisphere (0.5 °C). The cooling is most pronounced in the northern middle and high latitudes, especially during the spring season. To compare the effect of deforestation on climate with other forcings, climate responses to the changing atmospheric CO₂ concentration and solar irradiance are also analysed. When all three factors are taken into account, dynamics of northern hemisphere temperature during the last 300 years within the model are generally in agreement with the observed (reconstructed) temperature trend. We conclude that the impact of historical land cover changes on climate is comparable with the impact of the other climate forcings and that land cover forcing is important for reproducing historical climate change.     

Late Turonian (Cretaceous) climate cooling in Europe: faunal response and possible causes

Isochronous variations of δ¹⁸O curves within several European basins indicate a period of Late Turonian climate cooling, which is characterized by two distinct cooling phases, separated by a period of climate stability. Literature data for macrofauna (ammonites, echinoids, and belemnites) indicate that the cooling phases are associated with a southward shift of taxa. Concomitant Late Turonian events (volcanism and relative sea-level changes) suggest the migration to be triggered mainly by relative sea-level falls. The inferred cooling phases are seen in context with a general cooling trend due to the decrease in Mid-Cretaceous volcanogenic CO₂ emission. Short-term stagnation of cooling in the Late Turonian has been probably triggered by renewed volcanism. Due to the general high temperatures during Mid-Cretaceous times, a glacio-eustatic explanation for the coincidence of cooling and sea-level fall is considered unlikely.     

海洋浮游古菌MGII的研究进展

海洋浮游古菌MGⅡ是海洋表层水体中最丰富的古菌类群。自1992年被发现以来,如今依然没有被成功分离纯化。前人基于16S rRNA基因的研究认为MGⅡ可以被分为MGⅡa、MGⅡb和MGⅡc三个亚类。近年来,对大量的宏基因组测序数据的分析表明,MGⅡ在分类学上属于广古菌门热源体纲下的一个目,包含MGⅡa和MGⅡb两个科。以前通过16S rRNA基因高通量测序结果得出的少量MGⅡc,在宏基因组测序的数据中并没有找到,因此最近两年的研究认为MGⅡ主要由MGⅡa和MGⅡb组成。本文综述了海洋浮游古菌MGⅡ的丰度和多样性分布特征、潜在的生态功能、生态关系以及培养等方面的研究进展,比较了MGⅡa和MGⅡb的异同点,并对当前的研究热点和趋势进行了讨论和展望。     

植被变化对气候的反馈机制及调节效应

植被通过光合作用固定大气中的CO₂来减缓温室效应，同时植被也通过改变地表能量收支影响温室效应。在过去的气候-植被研究中，大多关注气候变化对植被的影响，而植被对气候反馈的研究相对较少。植被通过调节地表能量收支、水通量等重要地气过程影响局地、区域乃至全球气候，在气候变化中的作用十分重要。因此，需要厘清植被对气候的反馈效应机制及其结果，并识别其地域差异。从生物地球物理和生物地球化学过程两方面分析植被与气候之间的作用机制，对全球及关键区域内植被变化对局地、区域乃至全球的气候反馈效应进行了系统总结：（1）生物地球物理反馈的区域特征明显，生物地球化学反馈则表现在全球尺度上，二者相互作用但难以统一；（2）植被破坏带来的气候影响在气温效应方面与生态系统的类型及地理分布相关：热带森林破坏带来增温效应，北方森林破坏带来降温效应，温带森林破坏则会通过增加森林反照率抵消丢失的固碳降温效应，气温效应表现不明显；（3）当前研究对关键过程机制考虑不够完善，不同研究方法的结果差异较大，且缺乏高质量观测数据的验证；同时考虑生物地球物理和生物地球化学的净气候反馈研究尚无法支撑植树造林对气候变化单一减缓作用的常规理解。本文可为科学评估植树造林对气候变化作用的方向与强度提供理论依据。     

新生代全球变化与中国古植物区系的演变

新生代是地质历史最年轻的一个时代 ,当时全球板块运动和岩浆活动强烈而频繁 ,中生代开始的大陆漂移活动继续进行 ,并于早第三纪末开始喜马拉雅运动 ,古地中海逐渐封闭 ,经过一系列的板块碰撞和洋底扩张 ,晚第三纪时地壳构造的基本轮廓和古地理面貌逐渐接近现代。受地壳运动的控制 ,全球新生代气候波动明显 ,早第三纪总体比较温暖 ,晚第三纪气候发生明显分异 ,气温显著下降 ,第三纪末期开始有冰川活动 ,一直持续到更新世末期 ,期间发生多次冰期和间冰期 ,全新世气候逐渐转暖。受上述全球变化的影响 ,我国新生代植物区系纵向演变和横向分异明显 ,早第三纪植物区系主要是纬向分带 ,从古新世到渐新世 ,我国植物区系主要分为北方区和南方区 ;晚第三纪初 ,由于喜马拉雅运动使青藏高原及东部的横断山脉地区持续抬升 ,逐渐形成独立的高原植物区。总体来说 ,晚第三纪植物区系和植被类型逐渐接近现代。第四纪由于青藏高原继续强烈抬升 ,激发了东亚季风 ,使我国的植物区系经向分带更加明显 ,植物区系和植被类型与现代已基本一致 ,到了全新世晚期 ,植物区系的演变除了受全球变化的影响外 ,人类活动的作用也越来越明显     

Middle Eocene–late Oligocene climate variability: Calcareous nannofossil response at Kerguelen Plateau,Site 748

A major deterioration in global climate occurred through the Eocene–Oligocene time interval, characterized by long-term cooling in both terrestrial and marine environments. During this long-term cooling trend, however, recent studies have documented several short-lived warming and cooling phases. In order to further investigate high-latitude climate during these events, we developed a high-resolution calcareous nannofossil record from ODP Site 748 Hole B for the interval spanning the late middle Eocene to the late Oligocene (~ 42 to 26 Ma). The primary goals of this study were to construct a detailed biostratigraphic record and to use nannofossil assemblage variations to interpret short-term changes in surface-water temperature and nutrient conditions. The principal nannofossil assemblage variations are identified using a temperate-warm-water taxa index (Twwt), from which three warming and five cooling events are identified within the middle Eocene to the earliest Oligocene interval. Among these climatic trends, the cooling event at ~ 39 Ma (Cooling Event B) is recorded here for the first time. Variations in fine-fraction δ¹⁸O values at Site 748 are associated with changes in the Twwt index, supporting the idea that significant short-term variability in surface-water conditions occurred in the Kerguelen Plateau area during the middle and late Eocene. Furthermore, ODP Site 748 calcareous nannofossil paleoecology confirms the utility of these microfossils for biostratigraphic, paleoclimatic, and paleoceanographic reconstructions at Southern Ocean sites during the Paleogene.     

Climate Analysis of Endemic Species-A Novel Method for Quantitative Analysis of Global Climate Change Since Tertiary

There are many extant endemic plants in China, which were widely distributed in the North Hemisphere during Tertiary. The global cooling during the Tertiary caused a series of narrow distribution regions of the plants. Quaternary glaciation invaded most regions of North America and Eurasia where severe destruction was imposed onto vegetation. However, such destruction was lessened in China largely because of specific topographic and geographical and obviously, a number of other conditions accounted for an unusual refugee camp for the relics of plants in China, among which lots of endemic taxa exist. Recently, Chinese endemic species, such as Metaseqouia, Eucommia , have been employed to conduct multi-disciplinary comprehensive studies so as to analyze Tertiary climate changes quantitatively. Meanwhile, a rigorous method, i.e. climate analysis of endemic species (CAES) has come to maturation. This method is characteristic of some generality because it is supposed to be applicable to the endemic species in other regions of the world. CAES is involved in the following aspects: 1. Conduct multidisciplinary studies on living and fossil species of endemic plants and trace their evolutionary courses. 2. Compare fossil species with living one and clarify which is the nearest living relative (NLR) to fossil counterpart. 3. Fossils and their living counterparts (NLR) are supposed to have similar ecological requirements to meet their life cycles. 4. Investigate the geographic distribution of living and fossil plants within the same taxa and ascertain the dynamic changes of their distributions in geological age. 5. Analyze climate factors in the distribution of specific endemic taxa and obtain the data of climatic characters which are suitable for reconstruction of paleoclimate where fossil counterparts lived. 6. Further study the physio-ecology of living species and determinate paleoclimate where fossil counterparts lived. 7. Integrate analysis of the data from steps 4, 5 and 6, and quantitatively reconstruct the climate where fossil and living plants survive.     

定量分析第三纪以来环境变化的新方法：—特有种气候分析法

1　全球气候变化研究新动向自 2 0世纪 80年代以来 ,全球气候变化研究至今仍方兴未艾。全球气温波动、大气中温室气体丰度变化、气候格局改变、气候带迁移和降水量增减 ,都影响到社会经济的发展和人类生活质量的提高。各国政府对全球气候变化的研究 ,如气候演变的过程、短期和长期气候变化的预测和自然灾害的防治都给予极大关注和财力支持[1] 。目前全球气候变化的研究正向两个方向发展。1.1　加大全球气候变化研究时间尺度 ,从研究当今气候发展到研究地质历史时期气候变化全球气候变化 ,如大气中ＣＯ2 浓度的变化、温度的升降和降水量的变…     

定量分析第三纪以来环境变化的新方法——特有种气候分析法

There are many extant endemic plants in China, which were widelydistributed in the North Hemisphere during Tertiary. The global cooling during the Tertiary caused a series of narrow distribution regions of the plants. Quaternary glaciation invaded most regions of North America and Eurasia where severe destruction was imposed onto vegetation. However, such destruction was lessened in China largely because of specific topographic and geographical and obviously, a number of other conditions accounted for an unusual refugee camp for the relics of plants in China, among which lots of endemic taxa exist. Recently, Chinese endemic species, such as Metaseqouia, Eucommia, have been employed to conduct multi-disciplinary comprehensive studies so as to analyze Tertiary climate changes quantitatively. Meanwhile, a rigorous method, i.e. climate analysis of endemic species (CAES) has come to maturation. This method is characteristic of some generality because it is supposed to be applicable to the endemic species in other regions of the world. CAES is involved in the following aspects: 1. Conduct multidisciplinary studies on living and fossil species of endemic plants and trace their evolutionary courses. 2. Compare fossil species with living one and clarify which is the nearest living relative (NLR) to fossil counterpart. 3. Fossils and their living counterparts (NLR) are supposed to have similar ecological requirements to meet their life cycles. 4. Investigate the geographic distribution of living and fossil plants within the same taxa and ascertain the dynamic changes of their distributions in geological age. 5. Analyze climate factors in the distribution of specific endemic taxa and obtain the data of climatic characters which are suitable for reconstruction of paleoclimate where fossil counterparts lived. 6. Further study the physio-ecology of living species and determinate paleoclimate where fossil counterparts lived. 7. Integrate analysis of the data from steps 4, 5 and 6, and quantitatively reconstruct the climate where fossil and living plants survive.     

Need for relevant timescales when crediting temporary carbon storage

Purpose

Earth faces an urgent need for climate change mitigation, and carbon storage is discussed as an option. Approaches for assessing the benefit of temporary carbon storage in relation to carbon footprinting exist, but many are based on a 100-year accounting period, disregarding impacts after this time. The aim of this paper is to assess the consequences of using such approaches that disregard the long timescale on which complete removal of atmospheric CO₂ occurs. Based on these findings, an assessment is made on what are relevant timescales to consider when including the value of temporary carbon storage in carbon footprinting.

Methods

Implications of using a 100-year accounting period is evaluated via a literature review study of the global carbon cycle, as well as by analysing the crediting approaches that are exemplified by the PAS 2050 scheme for crediting temporary carbon storage.

Results and discussion

The global carbon cycle shows timescales of thousands of years for the transport of carbon from the atmosphere to pools beyond the near-surface layers of the Earth, from where it will not readily be re-emitted as a response to change in near-surface conditions. Compared to such timescales, the use of the 100-year accounting period appears hard to justify. We illustrate how the use of the 100-year accounting period can cause long-term global warming impacts to be hidden by short-term storage solutions that may not offer real long-term climate change mitigation. Obtaining long-term climatic benefits is considered to require storage of carbon for at least thousand years. However, it has been proposed that there may exist tipping points for the atmospheric CO₂ concentration beyond which irreversible climate changes occur. To reduce the risk of passing such tipping points, fast mitigation of the rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration is required and in this perspective, shorter storage times may still provide climatic benefits.

Conclusions

Both short- and long-term perspectives should be considered when crediting temporary carbon storage, addressing both acute effects on the climate and the long-term climate change. It is however essential to distinguish between short- and long-term mitigation potential by treating them separately and avoid that short-term mitigation is used to counterbalance long-term climate change impacts from burning of fossil fuels.     

Predicting impacts of Arctic climate change: Past lessons and future challenges

General circulation models predict increases in temperature and precipitation in the Arctic as the result of increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Arctic ecosystems are strongly constrained by temperature, and may be expected to be markedly influenced by climate change. Perturbation experiments have been used to predict how Arctic ecosystems will respond to global climatic change, but these have often simulated individual perturbations (e.g. temperature alone) and have largely been confined to the short Arctic summer. The importance of interactions between global change variables (e.g. CO₂, temperature, precipitation) has rarely been examined, and much experimentation has been short-term. Similarly, very little experimentation has occurred in the winter when General circulation models predict the largest changes in climate will take place. Recent studies have clearly demonstrated that Arctic ecosystems are not dormant during the winter and thus much greater emphasis on experimentation during this period is essential to improve our understanding of how these ecosystems will respond to global change. This, combined with more long-term experimentation, direct observation of natural vegetation change (e.g. at the tundra/taiga boundary) and improvements in model predictions is necessary if we are to understand the future nature and extent of Arctic ecosystems in a changing climate.     

Effects of re‐oligotrophication and climate change on lake thermal structure

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Tectonics, orbital forcing, global climate change, and human evolution in Africa: introduction to the African paleoclimate special volume

The late Cenozoic climate of Africa is a critical component for understanding human evolution. African climate is controlled by major tectonic changes, global climate transitions, and local variations in orbital forcing. We introduce the special African Paleoclimate Issue of the Journal of Human Evolution by providing a background for and synthesis of the latest work relating to the environmental context for human evolution. Records presented in this special issue suggest that the regional tectonics, appearance of C(4) plants in East Africa, and late Cenozoic global cooling combined to produce a long-term drying trend in East Africa. Of particular importance is the uplift associated with the East African Rift Valley formation, which altered wind flow patterns from a more zonal to more meridinal direction. Results in this volume suggest a marked difference in the climate history of southern and eastern Africa, though both are clearly influenced by the major global climate thresholds crossed in the last 3 million years. Papers in this volume present lake, speleothem, and marine paleoclimate records showing that the East African long-term drying trend is punctuated by episodes of short, alternating periods of extreme wetness and aridity. These periods of extreme climate variability are characterized by the precession-forced appearance and disappearance of large, deep lakes in the East African Rift Valley and paralleled by low and high wind-driven dust loads reaching the adjacent ocean basins. Dating of these records show that over the last 3 million years such periods only occur at the times of major global climatic transitions, such as the intensification of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation (2.7-2.5 Ma), intensification of the Walker Circulation (1.9-1.7 Ma), and the Mid-Pleistocene Revolution (1-0.7 Ma). Authors in this volume suggest this onset occurs as high latitude forcing in both Hemispheres compresses the Intertropical Convergence Zone so that East Africa becomes locally sensitive to precessional forcing, resulting in rapid shifts from wet to dry conditions. These periods of extreme climate variability may have provided a catalyst for evolutionary change and driven key speciation and dispersal events amongst mammals and hominins in Africa. In particular, hominin species seem to differentially originate and go extinct during periods of extreme climate variability. Results presented in this volume may represent the basis of a new theory of early human evolution in Africa.     

Geobiological constraints on Earth system sensitivity to CO₂ during the Cretaceous and Cenozoic

Earth system climate sensitivity (ESS) is the long‐term (>10³ year) response of global surface temperature to doubled CO₂ that integrates fast and slow climate feedbacks. ESS has energy policy implications because global temperatures are not expected to decline appreciably for at least 10³ year, even if anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions drop to zero. We report provisional ESS estimates of 3 °C or higher for some of the Cretaceous and Cenozoic based on paleo‐reconstructions of CO₂ and temperature. These estimates are generally higher than climate sensitivities simulated from global climate models for the same ancient periods (approximately 3 °C). Climate models probably do not capture the full suite of positive climate feedbacks that amplify global temperatures during some globally warm periods, as well as other characteristic features of warm climates such as low meridional temperature gradients. These absent feedbacks may be related to clouds, trace greenhouse gases (GHGs), seasonal snow cover, and/or vegetation, especially in polar regions. Better characterization and quantification of these feedbacks is a priority given the current accumulation of atmospheric GHGs.     

A Time-Series Analysis of the 20th Century Climate Simulations Produced for the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report

In this paper evidence of anthropogenic influence over the warming of the 20th century is presented and the debate regarding the time-series properties of global temperatures is addressed in depth. The 20th century global temperature simulations produced for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fourth Assessment Report and a set of the radiative forcing series used to drive them are analyzed using modern econometric techniques. Results show that both temperatures and radiative forcing series share similar time-series properties and a common nonlinear secular movement. This long-term co-movement is characterized by the existence of time-ordered breaks in the slope of their trend functions. The evidence presented in this paper suggests that while natural forcing factors may help explain the warming of the first part of the century, anthropogenic forcing has been its main driver since the 1970’s. In terms of Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, significant anthropogenic interference with the climate system has already occurred and the current climate models are capable of accurately simulating the response of the climate system, even if it consists in a rapid or abrupt change, to changes in external forcing factors. This paper presents a new methodological approach for conducting time-series based attribution studies.     

Equilibrium of vegetation and climate at the European rear edge. A reference for climate change planning in mountainous Mediterranean regions

Mediterranean mountains harbour some of Europe’s highest floristic richness. This is accounted for largely by the mesoclimatic variety in these areas, along with the co-occurrence of a small area of Eurosiberian, Boreal and Mediterranean species, and those of Tertiary Subtropical origin. Throughout the twenty-first century, we are likely to witness a climate change-related modification of the biogeographic scenario in these mountains, and there is therefore a need for accurate climate regionalisations to serve as a reference of the abundance and distribution of species and communities, particularly those of a relictic nature. This paper presents an objective mapping method focussing on climate regions in a mountain range. The procedure was tested in the Cordillera Central Mountains of the Iberian Peninsula, in the western Mediterranean, one of the ranges occupying the largest area of the Mediterranean Basin. This regionalisation is based upon multivariate analyses and upon detailed cartography employing 27 climatic variables. We used spatial interpolation of data based on geographic information. We detected high climatic diversity in the mountain range studied. We identified 13 climatic regions, all of which form a varying mosaic throughout the annual temperature and rainfall cycle. This heterogeneity results from two geographically opposed gradients. The first one is the Mediterranean-Euro-Siberian variation of the mountain range. The second gradient involves the degree of oceanicity, which is negatively related to distance from the Atlantic Ocean. The existing correlation between the climatic regions detected and the flora existing therein enables the results to be situated within the projected trends of global warming, and their biogeographic and ecological consequences to be analysed.     

Arabia–Eurasia collision and the forcing of mid-Cenozoic global cooling

The end of the Eocene greenhouse world was the most dramatic phase in the long-term cooling trend of the Cenozoic Era. Here we show that the Arabia–Eurasia collision and the closure of the Tethys ocean gateway began in the Late Eocene at ~ 35 Ma, up to 25 million years earlier than in many reconstructions. We suggest that global cooling was forced by processes associated with the initial collision that reduced atmospheric CO₂. These are: 1) waning volcanism across southwest Asia; 2) increased organic carbon storage in Paratethyan basins (e.g. Black Sea and South Caspian); 3) increased silicate weathering in the collision zone and, 4) a shift towards modern patterns of ocean currents, associated with increased vigour in circulation and organic productivity.     

Vegetation-climate feedbacks in a greenhouse world

The potential for feedbacks between terrestrial vegetation, climate, and the atmospheric CO₂ partial pressure have been addressed by modelling. Previous research has established that under global warming and CO₂ enrichment, the stomatal conductance of vegetation tends to decrease, causing a warming effect on top of the driving change in greenhouse warming. At the global scale, this positive feedback is ultimately changed to a negative feedback through changes in vegetation structure. In spatial terms this structural feedback has a variable geographical pattern in terms of magnitude and sign. At high latitudes, increases in vegetation leaf area index (LAI) and vegetation height cause a positive feedback, and warming through reductions in the winter snow-cover albedo. At lower latitudes when vegetation becomes more sparse with warming, the higher albedo of the underlying soil leads to cooling. However, the largest area effects are of negative feedbacks caused by increased evaporative cooling with increasing LAI. These effects do not include feedbacks on the atmospheric CO₂ concentration, through changes in the carbon cycle of the vegetation. Modelling experiments, with biogeochemical, physiological and structural feedbacks on atmospheric CO₂, but with no changes in precipitation, ocean activity or sea ice formation, have shown that a consequence of the CO₂ fertilization effect on vegetation will be a reduction of atmospheric CO₂ concentration, in the order of 12% by the year 2100 and a reduced global warming by 0.7°C, in a total greenhouse warming of 3.9°C.     

The global distribution of cultivable lands: current patterns and sensitivity to possible climate change

Aim This study makes quantitative global estimates of land suitability for cultivation based on climate and soil constraints. It evaluates further the sensitivity of croplands to any possible changes in climate and atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. Location The location is global, geographically explicit. Methods The methods used are spatial data synthesis and analysis and numerical modelling. Results There is a cropland ‘reserve’ of 120%, mainly in tropical South America and Africa. Our climate sensitivity analysis indicates that the southern provinces of Canada, north‐western and north‐central states of the United States, northern Europe, southern Former Soviet Union and the Manchurian plains of China are most sensitive to changes in temperature. The Great Plains region of the United States and north‐eastern China are most sensitive to changes in precipitation. The regions that are sensitive to precipitation change are also sensitive to changes in CO₂, but the magnitude is small compared to the influence of direct climate change. We estimate that climate change, as simulated by global climate models, will expand cropland suitability by an additional 16%, mainly in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes. However, the tropics (mainly Africa, northern South America, Mexico and Central America and Oceania) will experience a small decrease in suitability due to climate change. Main conclusions There is a large reserve of cultivable croplands, mainly in tropical South America and Africa. However, much of this land is under valuable forests or in protected areas. Furthermore, the tropical soils could potentially lose fertility very rapidly once the forest cover is removed. Regions that lie at the margins of temperature or precipitation limitation to cultivation are most sensitive to changes in climate and atmospheric CO₂ concentration. It is anticipated that climate change will result in an increase in cropland suitability in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes (mainly in developed nations), while the tropics will lose suitability (mainly in developing nations).