Quantitative genetics in conservation biology

Most of the major genetic concerns in conservation biology, including inbreeding depression, loss of evolutionary potential, genetic adaptation to captivity and outbreeding depression, involve quantitative genetics. Small population size leads to inbreeding and loss of genetic diversity and so increases extinction risk. Captive populations of endangered species are managed to maximize the retention of genetic diversity by minimizing kinship, with subsidiary efforts to minimize inbreeding. There is growing evidence that genetic adaptation to captivity is a major issue in the genetic management of captive populations of endangered species as it reduces reproductive fitness when captive populations are reintroduced into the wild. This problem is not currently addressed, but it can be alleviated by deliberately fragmenting captive populations, with occasional exchange of immigrants to avoid excessive inbreeding. The extent and importance of outbreeding depression is a matter of controversy. Currently, an extremely cautious approach is taken to mixing populations. However, this cannot continue if fragmented populations are to be adequately managed to minimize extinctions. Most genetic management recommendations for endangered species arise directly, or indirectly, from quantitative genetic considerations.     

Systematic review of avian hatching failure and implications for conservation

Avian hatching failure is a widespread phenomenon, affecting around 10% of all eggs that are laid and not lost to predation, damage, or desertion. Our understanding of hatching failure is limited in terms of both its underpinning mechanisms and its occurrence across different populations. It is widely acknowledged that rates of hatching failure are higher in threatened species and in populations maintained in captivity compared to wild, non-threatened species, but these differences have rarely been quantified and any broader patterns remain unexplored. To examine the associations between threat status, management interventions, and hatching failure across populations we conducted a phylogenetically controlled multilevel meta-analysis across 231 studies and 241 species of birds. Our data set included both threatened (Critically Endangered, Endangered, and Vulnerable) and non-threatened (Near Threatened and Least Concern) species across wild and captive populations, as well as ‘wild managed’ (‘free-living’) populations. We found the mean overall rate of hatching failure across all populations to be 16.79%, with the hatching failure rate of wild, non-threatened species being 12.40%. We found that populations of threatened species experienced significantly higher mean hatching failure than populations of non-threatened species. Different levels of management were also associated with different rates of hatching failure, with wild populations experiencing the lowest rate of hatching failure, followed by wild managed populations, and populations in captivity experiencing the highest rate. Similarly, populations that were subject to the specific management interventions of artificial incubation, supplementary feeding, and artificial nest provision displayed significantly higher rates of hatching failure than populations without these interventions. The driver of this correlation between hatching failure and management remains unclear, but could be an indirect result of threatened species being more likely to have lower hatching success and also being more likely to be subject to management, indicating that conservation efforts are fittingly being focused towards the species potentially most at risk from extinction. This is the most comprehensive comparative analysis of avian hatching failure that has been conducted to date, and the first to quantify explicitly how threat status and management are associated with the rate of hatching failure in a population. We discuss the implications of our results, focusing on their potential applications to conservation. Although we identified several factors clearly associated with variation in hatching failure, a significant amount of heterogeneity was not explained by our meta-analytical model, indicating that other factors influencing hatching failure were not included here. We discuss what these factors might be and suggest avenues for further research. Finally, we discuss the inconsistency in how hatching failure is defined and reported within the literature, and propose a standardised definition to be used in future studies which will enable better comparison across populations and ensure that the most accurate information is used to support management decisions.     

Disordered Translocation is Hastening Local Extinction of the Chinese Giant Salamander

Biodiversity is declining globally by an unprecedented extinction rate. This is especially true for amphibians, accounting for 24.3% of all threatened vertebrates. As the largest extant amphibian species in the world, wild populations of the Chinese giant salamander(Genus Andrias)(CGS) have decreased dramatically because of overexploitation and habitat degradation. Translocation has become an important strategy for restoring threatened wild populations worldwide. However, disordered tra nsloca tion usually has negative effects on the native populations.We provide an overview of CGS translocation and show that disordered translocation can increase local population extinction. Nearly four times the estimated number of wild individuals have been released across China. There a re three types of translocation used for CGS, namely, reinforcement,reintroduction and ecological replacement, the last of which accounts for over one-third of translocations.Our genetic screening revealed that most released individuals were not from local populations, with one to four lineages detected in every release site(n = 6).This disordered translocation can potentially reduce the genetic integrity of original populations. Hence,we suggest suspending current CGS translocation activities immediately, until more robust measures can be developed and implemented to improve the current translocation program, especially with respect to lineage identifica tion a nd the identifica tion of appropriate release sites.     

The ghosts of mammals past: biological and geographical patterns of global mammalian extinction across the Holocene

Although the recent historical period is usually treated as a temporal base-line for understanding patterns of mammal extinction, mammalian biodiversity loss has also taken place throughout the Late Quaternary. We explore the spatial, taxonomic and phylogenetic patterns of 241 mammal species extinctions known to have occurred during the Holocene up to the present day. To assess whether our understanding of mammalian threat processes has been affected by excluding these taxa, we incorporate extinct species data into analyses of the impact of body mass on extinction risk. We find that Holocene extinctions have been phylogenetically and spatially concentrated in specific taxa and geographical regions, which are often not congruent with those disproportionately at risk today. Large-bodied mammals have also been more extinction-prone in most geographical regions across the Holocene. Our data support the extinction filter hypothesis, whereby regional faunas from which susceptible species have already become extinct now appear less threatened; they may also suggest that different processes are responsible for driving past and present extinctions. We also find overall incompleteness and inter-regional biases in extinction data from the recent fossil record. Although direct use of fossil data in future projections of extinction risk is therefore not straightforward, insights into extinction processes from the Holocene record are still useful in understanding mammalian threat.     

Sustainability of threatened species displayed in public aquaria,with a case study of Australian sharks and rays

Zoos and public aquaria exhibit numerous threatened species globally, and in the modern context of these institutions as conservation hubs, it is crucial that displays are ecologically sustainable. Elasmobranchs (sharks and rays) are of particular conservation concern and a higher proportion of threatened species are exhibited than any other assessed vertebrate group. Many of these lack sustainable captive populations, so comprehensive assessments of sustainability may be needed to support the management of future harvests and safeguard wild populations. We propose an approach to identify species that require an assessment of sustainability. Species at risk of extinction in the wild were considered to be those assessed as threatened (CR, EN or VU) on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, or data deficient species that may be at an elevated risk of extinction due to life history traits and habitat associations. We defined sustainable captive populations as self-maintaining, or from a source population that can sustain harvest levels without risk of population declines below sustainable levels. The captive breeding and wild harvest records of at risk species displayed by Australian aquaria were examined as a case study. Two species, largetooth sawfish Pristis pristis and grey nurse shark Carcharias taurus, were found to have unsustainable captive populations and were identified as high priorities for comprehensive sustainability assessments. This review highlights the need for changes in permitting practices and zoo and aquarium record management systems to improve conservation outcomes for captive elasmobranchs.     

Food web structure and interaction strength pave the way for vulnerability to extinction

This paper focuses on how food web structure and interactions among species affects the vulnerability, due to environmental variability, to extinction of species at different positions in model food webs. Vulnerability is here not measured by a traditional extinction threshold but is instead inspired by the IUCN criteria for endangered species: an observed rapid decline in population abundance. Using model webs influenced by stochasticity with zero autocorrelation, we investigate the ecological determinants of species vulnerability, i.e. the trophic interactions between species and food web structure and how these interact with the risk of sudden drops in abundance of species. We find that (i) producers fulfil the criterion of vulnerable species more frequently than other species, (ii) food web structure is related to vulnerability, and (iii) the vulnerability of species is greater when involved in a strong trophic interaction than when not. We note that our result on the relationship between extinction risk and trophic position of species contradict previous suggestions and argue that the main reason for the discrepancy probably is due to the fact that we study the vulnerability to environmental stochasticity and not extinction risk due to overexploitation, habitat destruction or interactions with introduced species. Thus, we suggest that the vulnerability of species to environmental stochasticity may be differently related to trophic position than the vulnerability of species to other factors. Earlier research on species extinctions has looked for intrinsic traits of species that correlate with increased vulnerability to extinction. However, to fully understand the extinction process we must also consider that species interactions may affect vulnerability and that not all extinctions are the result of long, gradual reductions in species abundances. Under environmental stochasticity (which importance frequently is assumed to increase as a result of climate change) and direct and indirect interactions with other species some extinctions may occur rapidly and apparently unexpectedly. To identify the first declines of population abundances that may escalate and lead to extinctions as early as possible, we need to recognize which species are at greatest risk of entering such dangerous routes and under what circumstances. This new perspective may contribute to our understanding of the processes leading to extinction of populations and eventually species. This is especially urgent in the light of the current biodiversity crisis where a large fraction of the world's biodiversity is threatened.     

Partnering conservation actions. <Emphasis Type="Italic">Inter situ</Emphasis> solutions to recover threatened species in South West Western Australia

South West Western Australia has a rich endemic flora of global significance. The threats facing this floral diversity are increasing in type, severity and scale, demonstrated by the rising numbers of species threatened with extinction. In particular, the root-rot pathogen Phytophthora cinnamomi is causing widespread destruction, threatening the survival of many of the region’s unique plants. In situ conservation of wild plants is considered the most essential component of a flora conservation program, but the ability to conserve some species adequately is often unachievable in the short term and urgent management intervention is required to prevent extinction. We present data on the status and management of wild populations of four threatened species from the region, including an ex situ program, and describe our efforts to bridge the gap between these two components. Such inter situ conservation recovery work enables monitoring of biological attributes, research into reproductive biology and collection of genetic material for further ex situ conservation, and provides the source of material for future restoration of wild populations.     

Diversity and depletions in continental carnivore guilds: implications for prioritizing global carnivore conservation

Large carnivores are important ecosystem components but are extinction prone due to small populations, slow growth rates and large area requirements. Consequently, there has been a surge of carnivore conservation efforts. Such efforts typically target local populations, with limited attention to the effects on the ecosystem function of predator guilds. Also, there is no framework for prioritizing these efforts globally. We compared taxonomic and functional diversity of continental carnivore guilds, compared them with the corresponding guilds during the Late Pleistocene and synthesized our results into suggestions for global prioritizations for carnivore conservation. Recent extinctions have caused taxonomically and functionally depleted carnivore guilds in Europe and North and South America, contrasting with guilds in Africa and Asia, which have retained a larger proportion of their carnivores. However, Asia is at higher risk of suffering further extinctions than other continents. We suggest three priorities of contrasting urgency for global carnivore conservation: (i) to promote recovery of the threatened Asian species, (ii) to prevent species in the depleted guilds in Europe and North and South America from becoming threatened, and (iii) to reconstruct functionally intact sympatric guilds of large carnivores at ecologically effective population sizes.     

Determinants of extinction in fragmented plant populations: Crepis sancta (asteraceae) in urban environments

Local populations are subject to recurrent extinctions, and small populations are particularly prone to extinction. Both demographic (stochasticity and the Allee effect) and genetic factors (drift load and inbreeding depression) potentially affect extinction. In fragmented populations, regular dispersal may boost population sizes (demographic rescue effect) or/and reduce the local inbreeding level and genetic drift (genetic rescue effect), which can affect extinction risks. We studied extinction processes in highly fragmented populations of the common species Crepis sancta (Asteraceae) in urban habitats exhibiting a rapid turnover of patches. A four-year demographic monitoring survey and microsatellite genotyping of individuals allowed us to study the determinants of extinction. We documented a low genetic structure and an absence of inbreeding (estimated by multilocus heterozygosity), which suggest that genetic factors were not a major cause of patch extinction. On the contrary, local population size was the main factor in extinction, whereas connectivity was shown to decrease patch extinction, which we interpreted as a demographic rescue effect that was likely due to better pollination services for reproduction. This coupling of demographic and genetic tools highlighted the importance of dispersal in local patch extinctions of small fragmented populations connected by gene flow.     

Predation selectively culls medium-sized species from island mammal faunas

Globally, elevated extinction risk in mammals is strongly associated with large body size. However, in regions where introduced predators exert strong top-down pressure on mammal populations, the selectivity of extinctions may be skewed towards species of intermediate body size, leading to a hump-shaped relationship between size and extinction risk. The existence of this kind of extinction pattern, and its link to predation, has been contentious and difficult to demonstrate. Here, we test the hypothesis of a hump-shaped body size–extinction relationship, using a database of 927 island mammal populations. We show that the size-selectivity of extinctions on many islands has exceeded that expected under null models. On islands with introduced predators, extinctions are biased towards intermediate body sizes, but this bias does not occur on islands without predators. Hence, on islands with a large-bodied mammal fauna, predators are selectively culling species from the lower end of the size distribution, and on islands with a small-bodied fauna they are culling species from the upper end. These findings suggest that it will be difficult to use predictable generalizations about extinction patterns, such as a positive body size–extinction risk association, to anticipate future species declines and plan conservation strategies accordingly.     

Population genetics of threatened wild plants in Japan

Approximately one-fourth of Japan's native plant species are threatened with extinction. To conserve these species, it is critical to evaluate genetic diversity at species-level and population-level. Some factors, including population size and geographic distribution, are known to influence the population genetic diversity of wild plant species. This article briefly reviews the population genetic studies that have been conducted on wild threatened plants in Japan. A large population size or wide geographic distribution does not always lead to large genetic diversity, suggesting that historical factors such as speciation processes and population expansion often play more important roles in determining genetic diversity than the number of remnant individuals. The mating system of a species also affects genetic diversity; predominantly selfing species tend to have smaller genetic diversity than outcrossing congeners. Another issue of concern in the conservation genetics of wild plants in Japan is the genetic diversity of insular endemics, because Japan consists of many islands, and the insular flora contains many endemic and threatened species. Previous studies on endemic plants on the Bonin and the Ryukyu Islands are reviewed. Compared to the cases of the Bonin Islands or other oceanic islands, there is much larger genetic diversity in plants endemic to the Ryukyu Islands. This difference is probably the result of the differences in the geological history of these islands. Electronic Publication     

Density-dependent demographic variation determines extinction rate of experimental populations

Understanding population extinctions is a chief goal of ecological theory. While stochastic theories of population growth are commonly used to forecast extinction, models used for prediction have not been adequately tested with experimental data. In a previously published experiment, variation in available food was experimentally manipulated in 281 laboratory populations of Daphnia magna to test hypothesized effects of environmental variation on population persistence. Here, half of those data were used to select and fit a stochastic model of population growth to predict extinctions of populations in the other half. When density-dependent demographic stochasticity was detected and incorporated in simple stochastic models, rates of population extinction were accurately predicted or only slightly biased. However, when density-dependent demographic stochasticity was not accounted for, as is usual when forecasting extinction of threatened and endangered species, predicted extinction rates were severely biased. Thus, an experimental demonstration shows that reliable estimates of extinction risk may be obtained for populations in variable environments if high-quality data are available for model selection and if density-dependent demographic stochasticity is accounted for. These results suggest that further consideration of density-dependent demographic stochasticity is required if predicted extinction rates are to be relied upon for conservation planning.     

Lower genetic diversity and hatchability in amphibian populations isolated by urbanization

Many amphibian populations worldwide have declined rapidly and been threatened with extinction in the past few decades because of human impacts on the environment. It is well known that urbanization reduces the genetic diversity of isolated populations. The concept that a reduction in genetic diversity leads to lower reproductive fitness has been predominantly supported by studies involving laboratory organisms, but has rarely been tested in wild populations. Here we examined whether genetic diversity affected hatchability, a population parameter related to reproductive success, in the populations of two pond-breeding amphibian species (Hynobius tokyoensis and Rana ornativentris) affected by urbanization. We surveyed 81 populations in the southwestern Kanto region of Japan. Mean hatchability of the populations was determined and genetic diversities were estimated via mitochondrial or microsatellite DNA analyses. Firstly, Random Forests (an ensemble machine learning method) models were applied to clarify the effects of environmental factors on both hatchability and genetic diversity. Subsequently, the relationships among environmental factors, genetic diversity, and mean hatchability were evaluated using path analysis. Mean hatchability was significantly affected by both urbanization and genetic diversity. This result shows that loss of genetic diversity may decrease a population’s reproductive success in the field.     

Extinction trends of threatened invertebrates in peninsular Spain

Using information from two recently published atlases of threatened invertebrate species in peninsular Spain, we examined the climatic, land use and geographic characteristics of the 100 km² UTM cells with most likelihood of suffering extinctions (extinction cells), as well as the attributes of the species prone to population extinctions. Extinction cells have had significantly (1) lower precipitation values, (2) higher temperatures, (3) higher percentages of anthropic land uses or (4) higher rates of anthropization during the last 20 years than the remaining cells. Nevertheless, probable extinctions may occur under a wide range of climatic and anthropization change rates and these variables can only explain a low proportion (~5 %) of variability in the occurrence or number of extinction cells. Aquatic species seem to suffer higher local extinction rates than terrestrial species. Interestingly, many invertebrate species with approximately 25 or less occurrence cells are on a clear trajectory towards extinction. These results outline the difficulties and uncertainties in relating probable population extinctions with climatic and land use changes in the case of invertebrate data. However, they also suggest that a third of the considered Spanish threatened species could have lost some of their populations, and that current conservation efforts are insufficient to reverse this tendency.     

Examining the Extinction of the Barbary Lion and Its Implications for Felid Conservation

Estimations of species extinction dates are rarely definitive, yet declarations of extinction or extirpation are important as they define when conservation efforts may cease. Erroneous declarations of extinctions not only destabilize conservation efforts but also corrode local community support. Mismatches in perceptions by the scientific and local communities risk undermining sensitive, but important partnerships. We examine observations relating to the decline and extinction of Barbary lions in North Africa. Whilst the extinction predates the era of the scientific conservation movement, the decline is relatively well documented in historical records. Recently unearthed accounts suggest Barbary lions survived later than previously assumed. We use probabilistic methods to estimate a more recent extinction date for the subspecies. The evidence presented for a much later persistence of lions in North Africa, including generations when sightings were nil, suggests caution when considering felid populations as extinct in the wild. The case raises the possibility that captive animals descended from the Moroccan royal collection are closer contemporaries to wild Barbary lions. Furthermore, our results highlight the vulnerability of very small lion populations and the significance of continued conservation of remnant lion populations in Central and West Africa.     

Rodrigues fruit bats (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Pteropus rodricensis</Emphasis>, Megachiroptera: Pteropodidae) retain genetic diversity despite population declines and founder events

Fruit bats of the genus Pteropus are important contributors to ecosystem maintenance on islands through their roles as pollinators and seed dispersers. However, island faunas are the most prone to extinction and there is a real need to assess the possible genetic implications of population reductions in terms of extinction risk. An effective method of ameliorating extinction risk in endangered species is the establishment of captive populations ex situ. The effectiveness of captive breeding programmes may be assessed by comparing the genetic variability of captive colonies to that of wild counterparts. Here, we use polymorphic microsatellite loci to assess genetic variability in wild, critically endangered Rodrigues fruit bats (Pteropus rodricensis, Dobson 1878) and we compare this variability to that in a captive colony. We document remarkable conservation of genetic variability in both the wild and captive populations, despite population declines and founder events. Our results demonstrate that the wild population has withstood the negative effects of population reductions and that captive breeding programmes can fulfil the goals of retaining genetic diversity and limiting inbreeding.     

种群统计随机性和环境随机性对种群绝灭的影响

影响种群绝灭的随机干扰可分为种群统计随机性、环境随机性和随机灾害三大类。在相对稳定的环境条件下和相对较短的时间内,以前两类随机干扰对种群绝灭的影响为生态学家关注的焦点。但是,由于自然种群动态及其影响因子的复杂特征,进一步深入研究随机干扰对种群绝灭的作用在理论上和实践上都必须发展新的技术手段。本文回顾了种群统计随机性与环境随机性的概念起源与发展,系统阐述了其分析方法。归纳了两类随机性在种群绝灭研究中的应用范围、作用方式和特点的异同和区别方法。各类随机作用与种群动态之间关系的理论研究与对种群绝灭机理的实践研究紧密相关。根据理论模型模拟和自然种群实际分析两方面的研究现状,作者提出了进一步深入研究随机作用与种群非线性动态方法的策略。指出了随机干扰影响种群绝灭过程的研究的方向：更多的研究将从单纯的定性分析随机干扰对种群动力学简单性质的作用,转向结合特定的种群非线性动态特征和各类随机力作用特点具体分析绝灭极端动态的成因,以期做出精确的预测。     

Is use of translocation for the conservation of subpopulations of oribi Ourebia ourebi (Zimmermann) effective? A case study

In South Africa, the oribi, Ourebia ourebi is an endangered small antelope that requires conservation management and intervention to prevent their extinction. Use of translocation for the conservation of subpopulations facing local extinction in the wild has been proposed. In this study, fifteen oribi from threatened populations were captured and released (November 2004) on a private game reserve in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Radio telemetry was used to monitor the dispersal and survival of translocated oribi. Only one death occurred during that period. All other released oribi survived, and most remained in close proximity of the release site for more than a year postrelease. Reproduction also occurred. This suggests that, translocation could be a viable option for conserving wild populations of oribi, assuming that other factors, such as availability of suitable grassland habitat and that poaching has been curtailed, are met.     

When can the cause of a population decline be determined?

Inferring the factors responsible for declines in abundance is a prerequisite to preventing the extinction of wild populations. Many of the policies and programmes intended to prevent extinctions operate on the assumption that the factors driving the decline of a population can be determined. Exogenous factors that cause declines in abundance can be statistically confounded with endogenous factors such as density dependence. To demonstrate the potential for confounding, we used an experiment where replicated populations were driven to extinction by gradually manipulating habitat quality. In many of the replicated populations, habitat quality and density dependence were confounded, which obscured causal inference. Our results show that confounding is likely to occur when the exogenous factors that are driving the decline change gradually over time. Our study has direct implications for wild populations, because many factors that could drive a population to extinction change gradually through time.     

Decreasing genetic diversity in wild and captive populations of endangered Itasenpara bittering (Acheilognathus longipinnis) in the Himi region,central Japan,and recommendations for conservation

Biodiversity is increasingly declining as a result of direct human impact and structural alteration of ecosystems resulting from changes in human life styles. Itasenpara bittering (Acheilognathus longipinnis), which has been maintained in floodplain and paddy fields, is a threatened cyprinid fish endemic to central Japan. To aid in the preservation of this species, information on genetic diversity and demographic variables in wild and captive populations was obtained using microsatellite DNA analysis. Temporal changes in genetic diversity and effective population size (N _e) tended to be relatively stable in the wild Moo River population, although lower values were detected in the wild Busshouji River population, suggesting an extremely high risk of extinction in the latter. Captive populations derived from the Busshouji River population demonstrated significant genetic divergence even among intrapopulational cohorts, suggesting the influence of genetic drift caused by geographic isolation and small population size. Active maintenance of genetic diversity in captive population is a necessary part of conservation programs, as are continuous addition of wild individuals and replacement of individuals among captive populations. In addition, increasing or maintaining suitable floodplain areas and artificial habitats such as paddy fields might contribute to the conservation of genetic diversity in the Itasenpara bittering.