Climatic stability in the Brazilian Cerrado: implications for biogeographical connections of South American savannas,species richness and conservation in a biodiversity hotspot

Aim To investigate the historical distribution of the Cerrado across Quaternary climatic fluctuations and to generate historical stability maps to test: (1) whether the ‘historical climate’ stability hypothesis explains squamate reptile richness in the Cerrado; and (2) the hypothesis of Pleistocene connections between savannas located north and south of Amazonia. Location The Cerrado, a savanna biome and a global biodiversity hotspot distributed mainly in central Brazil. Methods We generated occurrence datasets from 1000 presence points randomly selected from the entire distribution of the Cerrado, as determined by two spatial definitions. We modelled the potential Cerrado distribution by implementing a maximum‐entropy machine‐learning algorithm across four time projections: current, mid‐Holocene (6 ka), Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 ka) and Last Interglacial (LIG, 120 ka). We generated historical stability maps (refugial areas) by overlapping presence/absence projections of all scenarios, and checked consistencies with qualitative comparisons with available fossil pollen records. We built a spatially explicit simultaneous autoregressive model to explore the relationship between current climate, climatic stability, and squamate species richness. Results Models predicted the LGM and LIG as the periods of narrowest and widest Cerrado distributions, respectively, and were largely corroborated by palynological evidence. We found evidence for two savanna corridors (eastern coastal during the LIG, and Andean during the LGM) and predicted a large refugial area in the north‐eastern Cerrado (Serra Geral de Goiás refugium). Variables related to climatic stability predicted squamate richness better than present climatic variables did. Main conclusions Our results indicate that Bolivian savannas should be included within the Cerrado range and that the Cerrado’s biogeographical counterparts are not Chaco and Caatinga but rather the disjunct savannas of the Guyana shield plateaus. Climatic stability is a good predictor of Cerrado squamate richness, and our stability maps could be used in future studies to test diversity patterns and genetic signatures of different taxonomic groups and as a higher‐order landscape biodiversity surrogate for conservation planning.     

Evolutionary processes,dispersal limitation and climatic history shape current diversity patterns of European dragonflies

We investigated the effects of contemporary and historical factors on the spatial variation of European dragonfly diversity. Specifically, we tested to what extent patterns of endemism and phylogenetic diversity of European dragonfly assemblages are structured by 1) phylogenetic conservatism of thermal adaptations and 2) differences in the ability of post‐glacial recolonization by species adapted to running waters (lotic) and still waters (lentic). We investigated patterns of dragonfly diversity using digital distribution maps and a phylogeny of 122 European dragonfly species, which we constructed by combining taxonomic and molecular data. We calculated total taxonomic distinctiveness and mean pairwise distances across 4192 50 × 50 km equal‐area grid cells as measures of phylogenetic diversity. We compared species richness with corrected weighted endemism and standardized effect sizes of mean pairwise distances or residuals of total taxonomic distinctiveness to identify areas with higher or lower phylogenetic diversity than expected by chance. Broken‐line regression was used to detect breakpoints in diversity–latitude relationships. Dragonfly species richness peaked in central Europe, whereas endemism and phylogenetic diversity decreased from warm areas in the south‐west to cold areas in the north‐east and with an increasing proportion of lentic species. Except for species richness, all measures of diversity were consistently higher in formerly unglaciated areas south of the 0°C isotherm during the Last Glacial Maximum than in formerly glaciated areas. These results indicate that the distributions of dragonfly species in Europe were shaped by both phylogenetic conservatism of thermal adaptations and differences between lentic and lotic species in the ability of post‐glacial recolonization/dispersal in concert with the climatic history of the continent. The complex diversity patterns of European dragonflies provide an example of how integrating climatic and evolutionary history with contemporary ecological data can improve our understanding of the processes driving the geographical variation of biological diversity.     

Plant species richness–environment relationships across the Subantarctic–Patagonian transition zone

Aim To evaluate the relative importance of climate, productivity, environmental heterogeneity, biotic associations and habitat use by cattle to account for the species richness of trees, shrubs and herbs across the Subantarctic–Patagonian transition. Location An area of c. 150 × 150 km, within the transition zone between the Subantarctic and Patagonian subregions on the eastern slope of the Andes (c. 39–42° S, 70–72° W). Methods All vascular plants found at each one of 50 (10 × 10 m) sampling plots were counted to estimate the local tree, shrub and herb species richness. Path analysis was used to evaluate the relationship between the richness of the three life‐forms and plant cover, dried litter biomass, mean annual temperature, annual precipitation, daily temperature range, substrate heterogeneity and number of faecal pats. Principal coordinates of neighbour matrices was used to model the spatial autocorrelation of the data. Results Total plant species richness showed a unimodal pattern of spatial variation across the transition. Richness responded positively to indirect effects of precipitation mediated through plant cover, but there was a negative overall effect of precipitation on richness towards the west of the transition, most strongly for trees. An increase in substrate heterogeneity promoted a local increase in herb and shrub richness; the richness of trees increased in sites with steeper slopes. Canopy closure had a direct negative impact on herb richness; it also increased the local accumulation of litter, which negatively affected shrub and herb richness. The impact of habitat use by cattle negatively affected herb richness in areas to the east of the biogeographical transition. Main conclusions We suggest that the importance of indirect climatic effects mediated by vegetation cover can account for species richness patterns across this transition, most strongly for woody species, which supports the productivity hypothesis. The southern temperate forests towards the west may represent a deviation from the predictions of the water–energy dynamics hypothesis. Dissimilar spatial patterns of variation in the richness of woody and herbaceous species, and their different responses to climatic and heterogeneity variables across the transition, suggest that plant life‐form influences the plant species richness–environment relationships.     

Climatic drivers of leaf traits and genetic divergence in the tree Annona crassiflora: a broad spatial survey in the Brazilian savannas

The Cerrado is the largest South American savanna and encompasses substantial species diversity and environmental variation. Nevertheless, little is known regarding the influence of the environment on population divergence of Cerrado species. Here, we searched for climatic drivers of genetic (nuclear microsatellites) and leaf trait divergence in Annona crassiflora, a widespread tree in the Cerrado. The sampling encompassed all phytogeographic provinces of the continuous area of the Cerrado and included 397 individuals belonging to 21 populations. Populations showed substantial genetic and leaf trait divergence across the species' range. Our data revealed three spatially defined genetic groups (eastern, western and southern) and two morphologically distinct groups (eastern and western only). The east‐west split in both the morphological and genetic data closely mirrors previously described phylogeographic patterns of Cerrado species. Generalized linear mixed effects models and multiple regression analyses revealed several climatic factors associated with both genetic and leaf trait divergence among populations of A. crassiflora. Isolation by environment (IBE) was mainly due to temperature seasonality and precipitation of the warmest quarter. Populations that experienced lower precipitation summers and hotter winters had heavier leaves and lower specific leaf area. The southwestern area of the Cerrado had the highest genetic diversity of A. crassiflora, suggesting that this region may have been climatically stable. Overall, we demonstrate that a combination of current climate and past climatic changes have shaped the population divergence and spatial structure of A. crassiflora. However, the genetic structure of A. crassiflora reflects the biogeographic history of the species more strongly than leaf traits, which are more related to current climate.     

What drives elevational patterns of diversity? A test of geometric constraints,climate and species pool effects for pteridophytes on an elevational gradient in Costa Rica

Aim We studied pteridophyte species richness between 100 m and 3400 m along a Neotropical elevational gradient and tested competing hypotheses for patterns of species richness. Location Elevational transects were situated at Volcán Barva in the Braulio Carrillo National Park and La Selva Biological Station (100–2800 m) and Cerro de la Muerte (2700–3400 m), both on the Atlantic slope of Costa Rica, Central America. Method We analysed species richness on 156 plots of 20 × 20 m and measured temperature and humidity at four elevations (40, 650, 1800 and 2800 m). Species richness patterns were regressed against climatic variables (temperature, humidity, precipitation and actual evapotranspiration), regional species pool, area and predicted species number of a geometric null model (the mid‐domain effect, MDE). Results The species richness of the 484 recorded species showed a hump‐shaped pattern with elevation with a richness peak at mid‐elevations (c. 1700 m). The MDE was the single most powerful explanatory variable in linear regression models, but species richness was also associated strongly with climatic variables, especially humidity and temperature. Area and species pool were associated less strongly with observed richness patterns. Main conclusions Geometric models and climatic models exclusive of geometric constraints explained comparable amounts of the elevational variation in species richness. Discrimination between these two factor complexes is not possible based on model fits. While overall fits of geometric models were high, large‐ and small‐ranged species were explained by geometric models to different extents. Species with narrow elevational ranges clustered at both ends of the gradient to a greater extent than predicted by the MDE null models used here. While geometric models explained much of the pattern in species richness, we cannot rule out the role of climatic factors (or vice versa) because the predicted peak in richness from geometric models, the empirical peak in richness and the overlap in favourable environmental conditions all coincide at middle elevations. Mid‐elevations offer highest humidity and moderate temperatures, whereas at high elevations richness is reduced due to low temperatures, and at low elevations by reduced water availability due to high temperatures.     

The endemic headwater stream amphibians of the American Northwest: associations with environmental gradients in a large forested preserve

We used a large forested preserve (Olympic National Park, USA) to examine the habitat associations of a unique and environmentally sensitive stream amphibian fauna: Ascaphus truei Stegneger, Rhyacotriton olympicus (Gaige) and Dicamptodon copei Nussbaum. We quantified the relative abundance of stream amphibians and compared them to physical, topographic, climatic and landscape variables. All three species were associated with the south‐west to north‐east climate gradient, tending to be most abundant in the south‐west. Although a habitat generalist relative to the other two species, Dicamptodon copei was absent from the north‐eastern portion of the park. Ascaphus truei and Rhyacotriton olympicus were both associated with coarse substrates and steep gradients. Unlike studies in harvested forests, all stream amphibians were common in waters with unconsolidated surface geology (e.g. marine sediments that erode easily). Studies of ecological preserves can provide an important baseline for evaluating species associations with environmental gradients and can reveal patterns not evident in more disturbed landscapes.     

Biogeographic anomalies in the species richness of Chilean forests: Incorporating evolution into a climatic – historic scenario

Broad‐scale richness gradients are closely associated with temperature and water availability. However, historical and evolutionary processes have also contributed to shape current diversity patterns. In this paper we focus on the potential influences of Pleistocene glaciation and phylogenetic niche conservatism (the tendency for traits to be maintained during diversification) on the tree diversity gradient in Chile, and we quantify its primary climatic correlates. Tree species richness is greatest at mid latitudes, particularly in the Andes and Coastal ranges, and decreases abruptly to the south and north. Regression tree analysis identified annual precipitation and annual temperature as the primary probable drivers of this gradient. Ice cover during the Last Glacial Maximum was also identified as an ‘important’ variable, but the contemporary and historical predictors are strongly collinear. Geographically weighted regression indicated that the relationships between richness and environmental variables vary regionally: the relationship between tree richness and precipitation is stronger in north‐central Chile, whereas tree richness and temperature are most strongly associated in south‐central Chile. By assigning each species the age of the family to which it belongs and averaging all species in each geographical unit, we also found that species from the oldest families are distributed mainly in mid to high latitudes and species from younger families are distributed mainly at lower latitudes. This pattern is closely associated with annual precipitation. Thus, the ecological component of tree richness follows contemporary climatic gradients of both energy and water, but the aridification of the Atacama Desert was an important driver over evolutionary time. The influence of recent Pleistocene glaciation remains unresolved but it cannot be discounted.     

Phylogeography and cryptic variation within the Lacerta viridis complex (Lacertidae, Reptilia)

It is well known that the current genetic pattern of many European species has been highly influenced by climatic changes during the Pleistocene. While there are many well known vertebrate examples, knowledge about squamate reptiles is sparse. To obtain more data, a range‐wide sampling of Lacerta viridis was conducted and phylogenetic relations within the L. viridis complex were analysed using an mtDNA fragment encompassing part of cytochrome b, the adjacent tRNA genes and the noncoding control region. Most genetic divergence was found in the south of the distribution range. The Carpathian Basin and the regions north of the Carpathians and Alps are inhabited by the same mitochondrial lineage, corresponding to Lacerta viridis viridis. Three distinct lineages occurred in the south‐eastern Balkans — corresponding to L. v. viridis, L. v. meridionalis, L. v. guentherpetersi— as well as a fourth lineage for which no subspecies name is available. This distribution pattern suggests a rapid range expansion of L. v. viridis after the Holocene warming, leading to a colonization of the northern part of the species range. An unexpected finding was that a highly distinct genetic lineage occurs along the western Balkan coast. Phylogenetic analyses (Bayesian, maximum likelihood, maximum parsimony) suggested that this west Balkan lineage could represent the sister taxon of Lacerta bilineata. Due to the morphological similarity of taxa within the L. viridis complex this cryptic taxon was previously assigned to L. v. viridis. The distribution pattern of several parapatric, in part highly, distinct genetic lineages suggested the existence of several refuges in close proximity on the southern Balkans. Within L. bilineata sensu stricto a generally similar pattern emerged, with a high genetic diversity on the Apennine peninsula, arguing for two distinct refuges there, and a low genetic diversity in the northern part of the range. Close to the south‐eastern Alps, three distinct lineages (L. b. bilineata, L. v. viridis, west Balkan taxon) occurred within close proximity. We suggest that the west Balkan lineage represents an early offshoot of L. bilineata that was isolated during a previous Pleistocene glacial from the more western L. bilineata populations, which survived in refuges on the Apennine peninsula.     

Morphological responses of Leymus chinensis (Poaceae) to the large-scale climatic gradient along the North-east China Transect (NECT)

A field experiment was conducted to examine the morphological variations of Leymus chinensis along the climatic gradient of the North‐east China Transect (NECT), from 115° to 125° E, in the vicinity of 43.5° N, in north‐eastern China. Ten sites selected for plant sampling along the gradient have approximately uniform theoretical radiation, but differ in precipitation and geographical elevation. The results of analyses showed that vegetative and reproductive shoot heights, flag leaf lengths and widths and seed numbers per inflorescence increased from the west to the east with precipitation, but decreased with aridity. Leaf lengths and widths for most leaf types from 115° to 124° E exhibited little variations. Significant correlations of plant heights, flag leaf lengths and widths and seed numbers per inflorescence with large‐scale climatic variables (e.g. annual precipitation, aridity) and geographical variation (longitude) found in this study indicated that climatic factors have significant effects on some morphological traits of L. chinensis along the NECT.     

The area-independent effects of habitat complexity on biodiversity vary between regions

Potential explanatory variables often co‐vary in studies of species richness. Where topography varies within a survey it is difficult to separate area and habitat‐diversity effects. Topographically complex surfaces may contain more species due to increased habitat diversity or as a result of increased area per se. Fractal geometry can be used to adjust species richness estimates to control for increases in area on complex surfaces. Application of fractal techniques to a survey of rocky shores demonstrated an unambiguous area‐independent effect of topography on species richness in the Isle of Man. In contrast, variation in species richness in south‐west England reflected surface availability alone. Multivariate tests and variation in limpet abundances also demonstrated regional variation in the area‐independent effects of topography. Community composition did not vary with increasing surface complexity in south‐west England. These results suggest large‐scale gradients in the effects of heterogeneity on community processes or demography.     

Impact of Pleistocene aridity oscillations on the population history of a widespread,vagile Australian mammal,Macropus fuliginosus

Aim Climatic fluctuations during the Pleistocene have shaped the population structure of many extant taxa. However, few studies have examined widespread species inhabiting the Australian continent, where periods of increased aridity characterized the Pleistocene. Here we investigate the phylogeography and population history of a widespread and vagile southern Australian marsupial, the western grey kangaroo (Macropus fuliginosus). Location Southern Australia. Methods We examined the variation of the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region from 511 individuals of M. fuliginosus sampled throughout their transcontinental distribution. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian analyses were used to investigate the phylogeography and coalescence analyses were then used to test hypothesized biogeographical scenarios. Results The combined results of the phylogeographical and coalescence analyses revealed a complex evolutionary history. Macropus fuliginosus originated in the south‐west of the continent, with north‐western and south‐western populations subsequently diverging as a result of vicariance events during the mid‐Pleistocene. Subsequent arid phases affected these populations differently. In the north‐west, the expansion and contraction of the arid zone resulted in repeated vicariance events and multiple divergent north‐western mtDNA subclades. In contrast, the south‐western population was less impacted by climatic oscillations but gave rise to a major transcontinental eastward expansion. Main conclusions Macropus fuliginosus exhibits the genetic signature of divergence due to unidentified barriers in south‐western Western Australia, while previously identified barriers across southern Australia appear to have had little impact despite evidence of a broad‐scale range expansion prior to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). This pattern of localized expansion and contraction is comparable to unglaciated regions in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Furthermore, this study indicates that despite the potential similarities between Northern Hemisphere glaciation and the activation of dune systems in the Australian arid zone, both of which rendered large areas inhospitable, the biotic responses and resultant phylogeographical signatures are dissimilar. Whereas a limited number of major geographically concordant refugia are observed in glaciated areas, the Southern Hemisphere arid zone appears to be associated with multiple species‐specific idiosyncratic refugia.     

Vicariance and endemism in a Neotropical savanna hotspot: distribution patterns of Cerrado squamate reptiles

Aim To test predictions of the vicariance model, to define basic biogeographical units for Cerrado squamates, and to discuss previous biogeographical hypotheses. Location Cerrado; South American savannas south of the Amazon, extending across central Brazil, with marginal areas in Bolivia and Paraguay and isolated relictual enclaves in adjacent regions. Methods We compiled species occurrence records via field sampling and revision of museum specimens and taxonomic literature. All species were mapped according to georeferenced locality records, and classified as (1) endemic or non‐endemic, (2) typical of plateaus or depressions, and (3) typical of open or forested habitats. We tested predictions of the vicariance model using biotic element analysis, searching for non‐random clusters of species ranges. Spatial congruence of biotic elements was compared with putative areas of endemism revealed by sympatric restricted‐range species. Effects of topographical and vegetational mosaics on distribution patterns were studied according to species composition in biotic elements and areas of endemism. Results We recorded 267 Cerrado squamates, of which 103 (39%) are endemics, including 20 amphisbaenians (61% endemism), 32 lizards (42%) and 51 snakes (32%). Distribution patterns corroborated predictions of the vicariance model, revealing groups of species with significantly clustered ranges. An analysis of endemic species recovered seven biotic elements, corroborating results including non‐endemics. Sympatric restricted‐range taxa delimited 10 putative areas of endemism, largely coincident with core areas of biotic elements detected with endemic taxa. Distribution patterns were associated with major topographical and vegetational divisions of the Cerrado. Endemism prevailed in open, elevated plateaus, whereas faunal interchange, mostly associated with forest habitats, was more common in peripheral depressions. Main conclusions Our results indicate that vicariant speciation has strongly shaped Cerrado squamate diversity, in contrast to earlier studies emphasizing faunal interchange and low endemism in the Cerrado vertebrate fauna. Levels of squamate endemism are higher than in any other Cerrado vertebrate group. The high number of recovered endemics revealed previously undetected areas of evolutionary relevance, indicating that biogeographical patterns in the Cerrado were poorly represented in previous analyses. Although still largely undocumented, effects of vicariant speciation may be prevalent in a large fraction of Cerrado and Neotropical biodiversity.     

Spatial analysis of species richness of shrews (Soricomorpha: Soricidae) in North America north of Mexico

We used geographic ranges of North American shrews and environmental data to better understand spatial distribution of species richness in the Soricidae. Richness was examined as a function of latitude and longitude and was compared with climatic variables at random points (≥90 km apart). Latitudinal trend in richness was parabolic with a maximum near 48°N, consistent with the general hypothesis that diversity is limited by energy to the north and by moisture to the south. Precipitation, snowfall, and July heating degree days were positively related to shrew richness. Richness of North American Soricidae was high in areas where topographic relief allowed for a variety of forested habitats and precipitation was high, such as the Southern Appalachians and Pacific Northwest. This broad, geographic study supports the idea that environmental moisture importantly limits distributions of shrews, which has been     

Does climate determine broad‐scale patterns of species richness? A test of the causal link by natural experiment

Aim Broad‐scale spatial patterns of species richness are very strongly correlated with climatic variables. If there is a causal link, i.e. if climate directly or indirectly determines patterns of richness, then when the climatic variables change, richness should change in the manner that spatial correlations between richness and climate would predict. The present study tests this prediction using seasonal changes in climatic variables and bird richness. Location We used a grid of equal area quadrats (37 000 km²) covering North and Central America as far south as Nicaragua. Methods Summer and winter bird distribution data were drawn from monographs and field guides. Climatic data came from published sources. We also used remotely sensed NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index — a measure of greenness). Results Bird species richness changes temporally (between summer and winter) in a manner that is close to, but statistically distinguishable from, the change one would predict from models relating the spatial variation in richness at a single time to climatic variables. If one further takes into account the seasonal changes in NDVI and within‐season variability of temperature and precipitation, then winter and summer richness follow congruent, statistically indistinguishable patterns. Main conclusions Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that climatic variables (temperature and precipitation) and vegetation cover directly or indirectly influence patterns of bird species richness.     

Modelling the species richness distribution of French dung beetles (Coleoptera, Scarabaeidae) and delimiting the predictive capacity of different groups of explanatory variables

Aim To predict French Scarabaeidae dung beetle species richness distribution, and to determine the possible underlying causal factors. Location The entire French territory has been studied by dividing it into 301 grid cells of 0.72 × 0.36 degrees. Method Species richness distribution was predicted using generalized linear models to relate the number of species with spatial, topographic and climate variables in grid squares previously identified as well sampled (n = 66). The predictive function includes the curvilinear relationship between variables, interaction terms and the significant third‐degree polynomial terms of latitude and longitude. The final model was validated by a jack‐knife procedure. The underlying causal factors were investigated by partial regression analysis, decomposing the variation in species richness among spatial, topographic and climate type variables. Results The final model accounts for 86.2% of total deviance, with a mean jack‐knife predictive error of 17.7%. The species richness map obtained highlights the Mediterranean as the region richest in species, and the less well‐explored south‐western region as also being species‐rich. The largest fraction of variability (38%) in the number of species is accounted for by the combined effect of the three groups of explanatory variables. The spatially structured climate component explains 21% of variation, while the pure climate and pure spatial components explain 14% and 11%, respectively. The effect of topography was negligible. Conclusions Delimiting the adequately inventoried areas and elaborating forecasting models using simple environmental variables can rapidly produce an estimate of the species richness distribution. Scarabaeidae species richness distribution seems to be mainly influenced by temperature. Minimum mean temperature is the most influential variable on a local scale, while maximum and mean temperature are the most important spatially structured variables. We suggest that species richness variation is mainly conditioned by the failure of many species to go beyond determined temperature range limits.     

Species richness of woody plants in the landscapes of Central Spain: the role of management disturbances,environment and non‐stationarity

Questions: How important is management disturbance on gamma species richness of woody plants at intermediate landscape scales? How is species richness related to other climatic and biotic factors in the study area? How does the assumption of spatial stationarity affect assessment of relationships among species richness and explanatory variables (e.g. management, biotic and climatic factors) across extensive study areas? Location: Central Spain (regions of Castilla y León, Madrid and Castilla‐La Mancha). Scale: Extent: 150 000 km². Grain: 25 km² (5 × 5‐km cells). Methods: Information from 21 064 plots from the 3SNFI was used to evaluate richness of tree and shrub species at intermediate landscape scales. In addition to variables well known to explain biodiversity, e.g. environmental and biotic factors, effect of management treatments was evaluated by assessing clearcutting, selection cutting, stand improvement treatments and agrosilvopastoral systems (dehesas). Results from GWR techniques were compared with those from OLS regression. Results: Patterns of gamma species richness, although strongly affected by both environmental and biotic variables, were also significantly modified by management factors. Species richness increased with percentage of selection cutting stands and improvement treatments but decreased with percentage of clearcutting stands. Reduced species richness of woody plants was associated with agrosilvopastoral practices. Species richness for trees was closely related to basal area, annual precipitation and topographic complexity; species richness for shrubs was closely related to topographic complexity and agrosilvopastoral systems. Most relationships between species richness and environmental or biotic factors were non‐stationary. Relationships between species richness and management effects tended to be stationary, with a few exceptions. Conclusions: Landscape models of biodiversity in Central Spain were more informative when they accounted for effects of management practices, at least at intermediate scales. In the context of current rural abandonment, silvicultural disturbances of intermediate intensity increased gamma species richness of woody plants. Exclusion of factors such as agrosilvopastoral systems from models could have led to spurious relationships with other spatially co‐varying factors (e.g. summer precipitation). Patterns of spatial variation in relationships, provided by GWR models, allowed formulating hypotheses about potential ecological processes underlying them, beyond generalizations resulting from global (OLS) models.     

Species richness patterns of obligate subterranean beetles (Insecta: Coleoptera) in a global biodiversity hotspot – effect of scale and sampling intensity

We studied species richness patterns of obligate subterranean (troglobiotic) beetles in the Dinaric karst of the western Balkans, using five grid sizes with cells of 80 × 80, 40 × 40, 20 × 20, 10 × 10, and 5 × 5 km. The same two hotspots could be recognized at all scales, although details differed. Differences in sampling intensity were not sufficient to explain these patterns. Correlations between number of species and number of sampled localities increased with increasing cell size. Additional species are expected to be found in the region, as indicated by jackknife 1, jackknife 2, Chao2, bootstrap, and incidence‐based coverage (ICE) species richness estimators. All estimates increased with increasing cell size, except Chao2, with the lowest prediction at the intermediate 20 × 20 km cell size. Jackknife 2 and ICE gave highest estimates and jackknife 1 and bootstrap the lowest. Jackknife 1 and bootstrap estimates changed least with cell size, while the number of single cell species increased. In the highly endemic subterranean fauna with many rare species, bootstrap may be most appropriate to consider. Positive autocorrelation of species numbers was highest at 20 × 20 km scale, so we used this cell size for further analyses. At this scale we added 137 localities with less positional accuracy to 1572 previously considered, and increased 254 troglobiotic species considered to 276. Previously discovered hotspots and their positions did not change, except for a new species‐rich cell which appeared in the south‐eastern region. There are two centres of troglobiotic species richness in the Dinaric karst. The one in the north‐west exhibited high species richness of Trechinae (Carabidae), while in the south‐east, the Leptodirinae (Cholevidae) were much more diverse. These centres of species richness should serve as the starting point for establishing a conservation network of important subterranean areas in Dinaric karst.     

Determinants of species richness in generalist and specialist Mediterranean butterflies: the negative synergistic forces of climate and habitat change

Although it is well established that butterfly richness is affected by climate and human factors (e.g. habitat disturbance and degradation) at different spatial scales, the drivers behind these changes vary greatly according to the geographical region and the ecology of the species concerned. It is essential that this variation be understood if trends in diversity are to be predicted with any degree of confidence under a scenario of global change. Here we examine patterns of butterfly species richness among groups differing in degree of habitat specialization, diet breadth and mobility in the north‐west Mediterranean Basin, a European hotspot for this taxon. We analyze a large number of butterfly communities and take into consideration the main potential drivers, that include climatic, geographic and resource variables, landscape structure and human environmental impact at different spatial scales. Our study shows that both climatic and anthropogenic factors play an important role in determining butterfly species richness in the north‐west Mediterranean Basin, but that their relative impact differs between specialist and generalist groups. At lower altitudes, water availability, a product of the interplay between temperature and rainfall, and negative effects of temperature appear as the most determinant factors. Maximum diversity was observed at mid‐altitudes, which reveals the importance from a conservation point of view of Mediterranean mountain ranges. The results suggest serious population declines in specialist species restricted to mountain areas as a result of climate warming in combination with habitat loss caused by the abandonment of grazing and mowing. They also suggest negative trends for generalist species due to an increase in aridity in combination with an increase in intensification of human land use in lowland areas. Such synergies are expected to lead to rapid declines in Mediterranean butterfly populations in the coming years, thereby posing a severe threat for the conservation of European biodiversity.     

Distorted perception of the spatial distribution of plant diversity through uneven collecting efforts: the example of Asteraceae in Australia

Aim Our aims were (1) to compare observed, estimated and predicted patterns of species richness using the Australian native Asteraceae as an example, (2) to identify candidates for hotspots of diversity for the study group, and (3) to examine the distortion of our perception of the spatial distribution of species richness through uneven or misdirected sampling efforts. Location Australia. Methods Based on data from Australia’s Virtual Herbarium, we calculated and visualized observed species richness, the Chao1 estimate of richness, the C index of collecting completeness, and an estimate of richness derived from environmental niche modelling for grid cells at a resolution of 1°. The 20 cells with the highest diversity values were used to define hotspots of diversity. Results Uneven collecting activity results in misleading diversity patterns for the family Asteraceae. While observed species richness is much higher in central Australia than in other parts of the arid interior, this is an artefact resulting from the area being a hotspot of collecting activity. The mountain ranges of south‐eastern Australia and Tasmania are candidates for unbiased hotspots of species richness. Main conclusions Vast areas of the Australian interior are insufficiently sampled on a local scale, although most of them can be expected to be relatively species poor. Some areas in the south‐east and south‐west of the continent remain undersampled relative to their high species richness. Observed species numbers, estimators and environmental niche‐modelling all have their unique advantages and disadvantages for the inference of patterns of diversity.     

Paleoclimatic evolution as the main driver of current genomic diversity in the widespread and polymorphic Neotropical songbird Arremon taciturnus

Several factors have been proposed as drivers of species diversification in the Neotropics, including environmental heterogeneity, the development of drainage systems and historical changes in forest distribution due to climatic oscillations. Here, we investigate which drivers contributed to the evolutionary history and current patterns of diversity of a polymorphic songbird (Arremon taciturnus) that is widely distributed in Amazonian and Atlantic forests as well as in Cerrado gallery and seasonally‐dry forests. We use genomic, phenotypic and habitat heterogeneity data coupled with climatic niche modelling. Results suggest the evolutionary history of the species is mainly related to paleoclimatic changes, although changes in the strength of the Amazon river as a barrier to dispersal, current habitat heterogeneity and geographic distance were also relevant. We propose an ancestral distribution in the Guyana Shield, and recent colonization of areas south of the Amazon river at ~380 to 166 kya, and expansion of the distribution to southern Amazonia, Cerrado and the Atlantic Forest. Since then, populations south of the Amazon River have been subjected to cycles of isolation and possibly secondary contact due to climatic changes that affected habitat heterogeneity and population connectivity. Most Amazonian rivers are not associated with long lasting isolation of populations, but some might act as secondary barriers, susceptible to crossing under specific climatic conditions. Morphological variation, while stable in some parts of the distribution, is not a reliable indicator of genetic structure or phylogenetic relationships.