Combining a regional climate model with a phytoplankton community model to predict future changes in phytoplankton in lakes

1. Linking a regional climate model (RCM) configured for contemporary atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, with a phytoplankton community model (PROTECH) produced realistic simulations of 20 years of recent phytoplankton data from Bassenthwaite Lake, in the North‐West of England. 2. Meteorological drivers were derived from the RCM to represent a future climate scenario involving a 1% per annum compound increase in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations until 2100. Using these drivers, PROTECH was run for another 20 year period representing the last two decades of the 21st century. 3. Comparison of these present and future simulations revealed likely impacts on the current seasonal phytoplankton development. Under future climate conditions, the simulated spring bloom showed an increase in cyanobacteria dominance caused by greater success of Planktothrix. Also, the summer cyanobacteria bloom declined earlier because of nutrient limitation caused by the increased spring growth. Overall productivity in the lake did not change. 4. Analysis showed that these predicted changes were driven by changes in water temperature, which were in turn triggered by the higher air temperatures predicted by the RCM.     

Bayesian analysis of climate change impacts in phenology

The identification of changes in observational data relating to the climate change hypothesis remains a topic of paramount importance. In particular, scientifically sound and rigorous methods for detecting changes are urgently needed. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian approach to nonparametric function estimation. The method is applied to blossom time series of Prunus avium L., Galanthus nivalis L. and Tilia platyphyllos SCOP. The functional behavior of these series is represented by three different models: the constant model, the linear model and the one change point model. The one change point model turns out to be the preferred one in all three data sets with considerable discrimination of the other alternatives. In addition to the functional behavior, rates of change in terms of days per year were also calculated. We obtain also uncertainty margins for both function estimates and rates of change. Our results provide a quantitative representation of what was previously inferred from the same data by less involved methods.     

草甸化草原优势牧草冷地早熟禾生长发育对气候变化的响应

利用青海湖北岸天然草地中冷地早熟禾(Poa crymophila)定位观测资料,应用数理统计方法,分析了该地区气候变化特征及其对牧草生长发育和产量形成的影响。结果表明:研究区年平均气温呈极显著上升趋势,升幅为0.512℃·10a-1,秋冬季气温上升幅度大于春夏季;年降水量增加主要是由春秋季降水增加所贡献的,年降水量有一个9年左右的周期;牧草生长季的干燥指数呈上升趋势,20世纪90年代末至2010年明显趋于暖干化;冷地早熟禾返青期、抽穗期、开花期和种子成熟期提前,黄枯期推迟,从而使冷地早熟禾整个生育期延长;Logistic模拟结果表明,冷地早熟禾返青后的第72天,其生长速度达到最大,为0.29cm·d-1;从返青后49d开始,由缓慢生长转为迅速生长阶段,从返青后第95天开始,其生长从迅速生长又转为缓慢生长,迅速生长期为46d;冷地早熟禾高度和地上生物量年际变化呈逐年增加趋势;热量对冷地早熟禾产量变化敏感期为5月,旬平均气温升高1℃,产量增加20～30kg·hm-2;抽穗开花期是冷地早熟禾需水敏感期,降水量增大,牧草产量增加。     

气候变化对中国农作物虫害发生的影响

基于1961—2010年全国农区527个气象站点气象资料、全国病虫害资料以及农作物种植面积等资料,对全国虫害发生面积与气象因子采用相关分析法,分析了气象要素变化对虫害发生的影响。结果表明:气候变化背景下,年平均温度、平均降水强度分别以0.27℃.10a-1、0.24mm.(d.10a)-1的速度增长,年日照时数以47.40h.10a-1的速度减小;年降水量增长速率为0.14mm.10a-1,但波动较大;虫害发生面积率距平与平均温度、平均降水强度距平呈显著正相关,平均温度、平均降水强度分别每增加1℃、1mm.d-1,虫害发生面积率增加0.648、0.713,虫害发生面积将增加0.96、1.06亿hm2次;虫害发生面积率距平与年日照时数距平呈显著负相关,其每降低100h,虫害发生面积率增加0.40,虫害发生面积将增加0.59亿hm2次;总体上,虫害发生面积率距平与年降水量距平的关系不明显。虫害发生面积率距平与年平均小雨量、微雨量雨日数、小雨量雨日数距平呈显著负相关,3个因子分别每减少1mm、1d、1d,虫害发生面积率增加0.014、0.066、0.052,发生面积将增加0.02、0.10、0.08亿hm2次。     

Warming promotes cold-adapted phytoplankton in temperate lakes and opens a loophole for Oscillatoriales in spring

The effects of the recent warming trend in many northern temperate lakes on the species composition of spring phytoplankton remain poorly understood, especially because a recent change in nutrients has complicated efforts, and previous studies have defined spring according to the calendar. We analysed data from 1979 to 2004 from Lake Müggelsee (Berlin, Germany), using physical and biological parameters to define the spring period. We show that a change in timing of spring plankton events in warm years led to the paradox of lower mean water temperatures during the growth period, favouring cold-adapted diatoms over cyanobacteria, and within the diatoms, some cold-adapted centric forms over pennate forms. Under high P : Si ratios, the increased time between phytoplankton and cladoceran peaks opened a loophole for filamentous cyanobacteria (Oscillatoriales) in warm years to establish dominance after the diatoms, which are silicate limited. Therefore, the warming trend promotes filamentous cyanobacteria, a well-known nuisance in eutrophic lakes, and surprisingly, cold-adapted diatoms.     

Influence of climate change on the abundance, distribution and phenology of woodland bird species in temperate regions

There is now overwhelming evidence that an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere has caused global temperatures to increase by 0.6 °C since 1900 and further increases of between 1.4 and 5.8 °C are predicted over the next century. Changes in climatic conditions have already influenced the demography, phenology and distribution of a wide range of plant and animal taxa. This review focuses on the impacts, both observed and potential, of climate change on birds breeding in temperate woodlands of the Western Palaearctic, a significant proportion of which are currently declining. Changes in ambient temperatures and patterns of precipitation may have direct and indirect effects on the survival rates and productivity of bird species, thus influencing population sizes. For some species or populations, the timing of events such as egg-laying and return from the wintering grounds is also changing in relation to shifts in the peak of food availability during the breeding season. The degree to which different individuals are able to track these temporal changes will have a significant bearing on population sizes and distributions in the future. Unless active management steps are taken, the relatively low dispersal rates of tree species may lead to a decrease in the total area of some woodland habitat types as losses at the southern edge of the range are likely to occur much more quickly than expansion at the northern edge. In addition, the dispersal rates of many woodland birds are themselves low, which could affect their ability to move to new habitat patches if currently occupied areas become unsuitable. Thus, woodland birds may be particularly susceptible to the impacts of climate change.     

Why climate change will invariably alter selection pressures on phenology

The seasonal timing of lifecycle events is closely linked to individual fitness and hence, maladaptation in phenological traits may impact population dynamics. However, few studies have analysed whether and why climate change will alter selection pressures and hence possibly induce maladaptation in phenology. To fill this gap, we here use a theoretical modelling approach. In our models, the phenologies of consumer and resource are (potentially) environmentally sensitive and depend on two different but correlated environmental variables. Fitness of the consumer depends on the phenological match with the resource. Because we explicitly model the dependence of the phenologies on environmental variables, we can test how differential (heterogeneous) versus equal (homogeneous) rates of change in the environmental variables affect selection on consumer phenology. As expected, under heterogeneous change, phenotypic plasticity is insufficient and thus selection on consumer phenology arises. However, even homogeneous change leads to directional selection on consumer phenology. This is because the consumer reaction norm has historically evolved to be flatter than the resource reaction norm, owing to time lags and imperfect cue reliability. Climate change will therefore lead to increased selection on consumer phenology across a broad range of situations.     

Identifying from recent sediment records the effects of nutrients and climate on diatom dynamics in Loch Leven

1. Changes in nutrients and climate have occurred over approximately the same timescales in many European lake catchments. Here, we attempt to interpret the sedimentary diatom record of a large shallow lake, Loch Leven, in relation to these pressures using information gained from analysis of long‐term data sets of water quality, climate and planktonic diatoms. 2. The core data indicate the enrichment of Loch Leven starting in c. 1800–1850, most likely from agricultural practices in the catchment, with a more marked phase since c. 1940–1950 caused by increased phosphorus inputs from sewage treatment works, land drainage and a woollen mill. 3. While the recent diatom plankton remains are dominated by taxa associated with nutrient‐rich conditions, an increase in Aulacoseira subarctica relative to Stephanodiscus taxa since the mid‐1980s suggests that reductions in external catchment sources of nutrients (since 1985) may have resulted in partial recovery. This observation accords well with the long‐term monitoring series of water chemistry and phytoplankton. 4. On a decadal‐centennial scale, the eutrophication signal in the sediment record outweighs any evidence of climate as a control on the diatom community. However, at an inter‐annual scale, while the diatom data exhibit high variability, there are several changes in species composition in the recent fossil record that may be attributed to climatic controls. 5. The study highlights the value of a palaeolimnological approach, particularly when coupled with long‐term data sets, for developing our understanding of environmental change at a range of temporal scales. The diatom record in the sediment can be used effectively to track recovery from eutrophication, but requires greater understanding of contemporary ecology to fully interpret climate impacts. 6. The study illustrates the complexity of ecosystem response to synchronous changes in nutrients and climate, and the difficulty of disentangling the effects of these multiple, interacting pressures.     

Combining limnological and palaeolimnological data to disentangle the effects of nutrient pollution and climate change on lake ecosystems: problems and potential

1. As long‐term observational lake records continue to lengthen, the historical overlap with lake sediment records grows, providing increasing opportunities for placing the contemporary ecological status of lakes in a temporal perspective. 2. Comparisons between long‐term data sets and sediment records, however, require lake sediments to be accurately dated and for sediment accumulation rates to be sufficiently rapid to allow precise matching with observational data. 3. The critical role of the sediment record in this context is its value in tracking the changing impact of human activity on a lake from a pre‐disturbance reference through to the present day. 4. Here, we use data from a range of lakes across Europe presented as case studies in this Special Section. The seven sites considered all possess both long‐term observational records and high‐quality sediment records. Our objective is to assess whether recent climate change is having an impact on their trophic status and in particular whether that impact can be disentangled from the changes associated with nutrient pollution. 5. The palaeo‐data show clear evidence for the beginning of nutrient pollution varying from the mid‐nineteenth century at Loch Leven to the early and middle twentieth century at other sites. The monitoring data show different degrees of recovery when judged against the palaeo‐reference. 6. The reason for limited recovery is attributed to continuing high nutrient concentrations related to an increase in diffuse nutrient loading or to internal P recycling, but there is some evidence that climate change may be playing a role in offsetting recovery at some sites. If this is the case, then lake ecosystems suffering from eutrophication may not necessarily return to their pre‐eutrophication reference status despite the measures that have been taken to reduce external nutrient loading. 7. The extent to which future warming might further limit such recovery can be evaluated only by continued monitoring combined with the use of palaeo‐records that set the pre‐eutrophication reference.     

The effects of climate change on species composition,succession and phenology: a case study

Climate change and its role in altering biological interactions and the likelihood of invasion by introduced species in marine systems have received increased attention in recent years. It is difficult to forecast how climate change will influence community function or the probability of invasion as it alters multiple marine environmental parameters including rising water temperature, lower salinity and pH. In the present study, we correlate changes in environmental parameters to shifts in species composition in a subtidal community in Newcastle, NH through comparison of two, 3‐year periods separated by 23 years (1979–1981 and 2003–2005). We observed concurrent shifts in climate related factors and in groups of organisms that dominate the marine community when comparing 1979–1981 to 2003–2005. The 1979–1981 community was dominated by perennial species (mussels and barnacles). In contrast, the 2003–2005 community was dominated by annual native and invasive tunicates (sea‐squirts). We also observed a shift in the environmental factors that characterized both communities. Dissolved inorganic nitrogen and phosphate characterized the 1979–1981 community while sea surface temperature, pH, and chlorophyll a characterized the 2003–2005 community. Elongated warmer water temperatures, through the fall and early winter months of the 2000s, extended the growing season of native organisms and facilitated local dominance of invasive species. Additionally, beta‐diversity was greater between 2003–2005 than 1979–1981 and driven by larger numbers of annual species whose life‐history characteristics (e.g., timing and magnitude of recruitment, growth and mortality) are driven by environmental parameters, particularly temperature.     

Effects of global climate change on marine and estuarine fishes and fisheries

Global climate change is impacting and will continue to impact marine and estuarine fish and fisheries. Data trends show global climate change effects ranging from increased oxygen consumption rates in fishes, to changes in foraging and migrational patterns in polar seas, to fish community changes in bleached tropical coral reefs. Projections of future conditions portend further impacts on the distribution and abundance of fishes associated with relatively small temperature changes. Changing fish distributions and abundances will undoubtedly affect communities of humans who harvest these stocks. Coastal-based harvesters (subsistence, commercial, recreational) may be impacted (negatively or positively) by changes in fish stocks due to climate change. Furthermore, marine protected area boundaries, low-lying island countries dependent on coastal economies, and disease incidence (in aquatic organisms and humans) are also affected by a relatively small increase in temperature and sea level. Our interpretations of evidence include many uncertainties about the future of affected fish species and their harvesters. Therefore, there is a need to research the physiology and ecology of marine and estuarine fishes, particularly in the tropics where comparatively little research has been conducted. As a broader and deeper information base accumulates, researchers will be able to make more accurate predictions and forge relevant solutions.     

Water level as the mediator between climate change and phytoplankton composition in a large shallow temperate lake

Hydrobiologia - We studied the effect of water level changes in Lake Võrtsjärv (270 km2, mean depth 2.8 m) on the abundance and composition of phytoplankton based on a 35-year database....     

Nutrients exert a stronger control than climate on recent diatom communities in Esthwaite Water: evidence from monitoring and palaeolimnological records

1. A long‐term monitoring programme on phytoplankton and physicochemical characteristics of Esthwaite Water (England) that started in 1945 provides a rare opportunity to understand the effects of climate and nutrients on a lake ecosystem. 2. Monitoring records show that the lake experienced nutrient enrichment from the early 1970s, particularly after 1975, associated with inputs from a local sewage treatment plant, resulting in marked increases in concentration of soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP). Climatic variables, such as air temperature (AirT) and rainfall, exhibit high variability with increasing trends after 1975. 3. Diatom analyses of an integrated ²¹⁰Pb‐dated lake sediment core from Esthwaite Water, covering the period from 1945 to 2004, showed that fossil diatoms exhibited distinct compositional change in response to nutrient enrichment. 4. Redundancy analysis (RDA) based on diatom and environmental data sets over the past 60 years showed that the most important variables explaining diatom species composition were winter concentrations of SRP, followed by AirT, independently explaining 22% and 8% of the diatom variance, respectively. 5. Additive models showed that winter SRP was the most important factor controlling the diatom assemblages for the whole monitoring period. AirT had little effect on the diatom assemblages when nutrient levels were low prior to 1975. With the increase in nutrient availability during the eutrophication phase after 1975, climate became more important in regulating the diatom community, although SRP was still the major controlling factor. 6. The relative effects of climate and nutrients on diatom communities vary depending on the timescale. RDA and additive model revealed that climate contributed little to diatom dynamics at an annual or decadal scale. 7. The combination of monitoring and palaeolimnological records employed here offers the opportunity to explore how nutrients and climate have affected a lake ecosystem over a range of timescales. This dual approach can potentially be extended to much longer timescales (e.g. centuries), where long‐term, reliable observational records exist.     

Variable shifts in spring and autumn migration phenology in North American songbirds associated with climate change

Monitoring studies find that the timing of spring bird migration has advanced in recent decades, especially in Europe. Results for autumn migration have been mixed. Using data from Powdermill Nature Reserve, a banding station in western Pennsylvania, USA, we report an analysis of migratory timing in 78 songbird species from 1961 to 2006. Spring migration became significantly earlier over the 46-year period, and autumn migration showed no overall change. There was much variation among species in phenological change, especially in autumn. Change in timing was unrelated to summer range (local vs. northern breeders) or the number of broods per year, but autumn migration became earlier in neotropical migrants and later in short-distance migrants. The migratory period for many species lengthened because late phases of migration remained unchanged or grew later as early phases became earlier. There was a negative correlation between spring and autumn in long-term change, and this caused dramatic adjustments in the amount of time between migrations: the intermigratory periods of 10 species increased or decreased by > 15 days. Year-to-year changes in timing were correlated with local temperature (detrended) and, in autumn, with a regional climate index (detrended North Atlantic Oscillation). These results illustrate a complex and dynamic annual cycle in songbirds, with responses to climate change differing among species and migration seasons.     

气候变化对中国农作物病害发生的影响

基于全国农区527个气象站点1961—2010年逐日气象资料、逐年农作物病害发生面积以及产量资料,从气温、降水、日照等角度,采用相关分析方法,研究了气候变化背景下各气象要素变化对中国农作物病害发生的影响。结果表明:近50年来,气候变化导致的各气象因子变化总体有利于病害发生,年平均温度以0.27℃·10a-1的速率升高,其每升高1℃,可导致病害发生面积增加6094.4万hm2次;年平均降雨强度以0.24mm·d-1·10a-1的速度增加,其每增加1mm·d-1,可导致病害发生面积增加6540.4万hm2次;年平均日照时数以47.4h·10a-1的速率减少,其每减少100h,可导致病害发生面积增加3418.8万hm2次;在气候变化导致的光、温、水变化中,温度增加对病害发生面积增加的影响最为显著,其次为日照时数减少、第三为平均降雨强度增大,其标准化回归系数依次为0.508、-0.374、0.112。     

The effects of temperature increases on a temperate phytoplankton community — A mesocosm climate change scenario

Prior to the spring bloom in 2003 and 2004, batch temperature experiments of approximately 3 weeks' duration were carried out in land-based mesocosms in at the Espeland field station (Norway), with temperatures on average increased ~ 2.7-3 °C (T1) and ~ 5.2-5.6 °C (T2) above in situ fjord temperature (RM). The development in the chlorophyll concentrations showed an earlier bloom as a response to increased temperatures but the carbon biomass showed that the warmest treatment yielded the lowest biomass. This study indicates that a part of the relationship between temperature and spring bloom timing stems from a temperature-induced change in phytoplankton algal physiology (the efficiency of photosystem II, F_v/F_m, and growth rates, µ_max), i.e. a direct temperature effect. Data analysis performed on microscope identified and quantified species did not show a significant temperature influence on phytoplankton community composition. However, the HPLC data indicated that temperature changes of as little as 3 °C influence the community composition. In particular, these data showed that peridinin-containing dinoflagellates only increased in abundance in the heated mesocosms and that a prasinophycean bloom, which was undetected in the microscope analyses, occurred prior to the blooms of all other phytoplankton classes in all treatments. The microscope analyses did reveal a temperature effect on individual species distribution patterns. Thalassionema nitzschioides was more abundant in the warm treatments and, in the warmest treatment, the spring bloom forming Skeletonema marinoi comprised a smaller proportion of the diatom community than in the other treatments.     

Community structure and composition in response to climate change in a temperate steppe

Climate change would have profound influences on community structure and composition, and subsequently has impacts on ecosystem functioning and feedback to climate change. A field experiment with increased temperature and precipitation was conducted to examine effects of experimental warming, increased precipitation and their interactions on community structure and composition in a temperate steppe in northern China since April 2005. Increased precipitation significantly stimulated species richness and coverage of plant community. In contrast, experimental warming markedly reduced species richness of grasses and community coverage. Species richness was positively dependent upon soil moisture (SM) across all treatments and years. Redundancy analysis (RDA) illustrated that SM dominated the response of community composition to climate change at the individual level, suggesting indirect effects of climate change on plant community composition via altering water availability. In addition, species interaction also mediated the responses of functional group coverage to increased precipitation and temperature. Our observations revealed that both abiotic (soil water availability) and biotic (interspecific interactions) factors play important roles in regulating plant community structure and composition in response to climate change in the semiarid steppe. Therefore these factors should be incorporated in model predicting terrestrial vegetation dynamics under climate change.     

Juvenile salmonid populations in a temperate river system track synoptic trends in climate

Widespread declines among Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and brown trout (Salmo trutta) over recent decades have been linked to pollution, exploitation and catchment modification, but climate change is increasingly implicated. We used long‐term, geographically extensive data from the Welsh River Wye, formerly a major salmon river, to examine whether climatically mediated effects on juveniles (>0+) might contribute to population change. Populations of Atlantic salmon and brown trout fell across the Wye catchment, respectively, by 50% and 67% between 1985 and 2004, but could not be explained by pollution because water quality improved during this time. Stream temperatures, estimated from calibrations against weekly air temperature at eight sites, increased by 0.5–0.7 °C in summer and 0.7–1.0 °C in winter, with larger tributaries warming more than shaded headwaters. Rates of winter warming were slightly greater after accounting for the effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation (1.1–1.4 °C). However, warming through time was smaller than measured variations among tributaries, and alone was insufficient to explain variations in salmonid density. Instead, population variations were best explained in multilevel mixed models by a synoptic variate representing a trend towards hotter, drier summers, implying interactions between climate warming, varying discharge and fluctuations in both brown trout and salmon. Taken alongside recent data showing effects of warming on survival at sea, these data suggest that Atlantic salmon might be jeopardized by future climatic effects in both their marine and freshwater stages. Effects on nondiadromous brown trout also imply climatically mediated processes in freshwaters or their catchments. Climate projections for the United Kingdom suggest that altered summer flow and increasing summer temperatures could exacerbate losses further in these species, and we advocate management actions that combine reduced abstraction with enhanced riparian shading.