基于近海健康评价现有体系的我国普适海洋健康评价“双核”新框架的构建

海洋生态环境保持健康状态是人类可持续开发利用海洋资源环境的基础,而近海海洋生态环境的健康状况综合评价可为海洋生态环境良性发展以及社会经济决策提供科学依据。首先对国际上3种代表性的海洋环境健康综合评价方法的应用特点进行了对比分析,并归纳了我国海洋生态环境健康评价的状况,在此基础上,以指标体系法重构了一个双核结构的综合评价框架,其中内核评价以海洋生态系统的自身状态为主,外核评价则主要反映海洋之于人类经济社会的贡献,以期能够科学、准确、全面的评价我国近海海洋环境健康状况。     

A Regional-Scale Ocean Health Index for Brazil

Brazil has one of the largest and fastest growing economies and one of the largest coastlines in the world, making human use and enjoyment of coastal and marine resources of fundamental importance to the country. Integrated assessments of ocean health are needed to understand the condition of a range of benefits that humans derive from marine systems and to evaluate where attention should be focused to improve the health of these systems. Here we describe the first such assessment for Brazil at both national and state levels. We applied the Ocean Health Index framework, which evaluates ten public goals for healthy oceans. Despite refinements of input data and model formulations, the national score of 60 (out of 100) was highly congruent with the previous global assessment for Brazil of 62. Variability in scores among coastal states was most striking for goals related to mariculture, protected areas, tourism, and clean waters. Extractive goals, including Food Provision, received low scores relative to habitat-related goals, such as Biodiversity. This study demonstrates the applicability of the Ocean Health Index at a regional scale, and its usefulness in highlighting existing data and knowledge gaps and identifying key policy and management recommendations. To improve Brazil''s ocean health, this study suggests that future actions should focus on: enhancing fisheries management, expanding marine protected areas, and monitoring coastal habitats.     

中国东海海岸带地区生态系统健康评估及其尺度依赖性

维持生态系统健康是实现社会经济可持续发展的关键性工作之一。本文基于邻域变异度和人为干扰修正后的活力-组织-弹性-服务模型,从5 km至地级市设置8个评估尺度单元,定量化的评估了我国东海海岸地区（包括上海、嘉兴、宁波、温州、台州、宁德、福州、莆田、泉州、厦门和漳州共11个城市）1990—2015年的生态系统健康状况,并分析了其时序变化特征和空间分异规律,探究了生态系统健康的尺度依赖性效应,得到以下结论：1）研究时段内,研究区生态系统健康水平以2000年为节点先下降后上升,但整体呈下降趋势。自2000年起生态系统健康值分布更加离散,呈现健康的生态系统更加健康,劣化的生态系统不断劣化的分化趋势。2）生态系统健康在空间分布上具有较高的异质性特征。沿海地区、宁波以北地区的生态系统健康值较低;远离海洋部分的山地丘陵的生态系统健康值较高。小尺度下上海市中心生态健康最差,地级市尺度下嘉兴市生态健康状况最差。3）生态系统健康评估工作具有一定的空间尺度依赖性。大尺度生态系统健康评估结果趋于平均化,可用于刻画变化趋势的空间分布格局。小尺度评估结果能够更好的解释生态系统健康程度的聚类分异细节。因而,在生态系统健康评估中不存在最佳的研究尺度,多尺度的设置有助于全面解析生态系统健康的时空分异特征。     

突变级数法在厦门城市生态安全评价中的应用

针对港湾快速城市化地区存在的潜在突变特性,基于P-S-R(压力-状态-响应)框架和突变级数法,构建了评价城市生态安全的突变模型,并对1996—2006年厦门城市生态安全进行了评价.结果表明：1996—1998年,快速城市化对厦门市区域生态安全的影响不大,研究区生态安全状况呈上升趋势;1998—2001年,由于大范围高强度的填海造地、人口激增等生态干扰远远超过了生态系统自身的修复能力,导致厦门城市生态安全状况呈快速下降趋势;2001—2006年,厦门城市生态安全整体水平回升,主要受其海湾型生态城市重大战略转变的影响;2006年,研究区系统压力安全级别为Ⅲ,说明厦门市还存在着生态安全隐患.突变级数法反映了单一指标极值情况对生态系统突变的影响,弥补了现有方法在此方面的不足,它既减小了权重赋值的主观性,又避免了主观判断安全标准的不确定性,可准确地反映城市生态安全的发展趋势.     

Linking Ocean's Benefits to People (OBP) with Integrated Ecosystem Assessments (IEAs)

The fundamental challenge of the inclusion of the human dimension of the oceans in the Integrated Ecosystem Assessments (IEAs) provides an opportunity for a transdisciplinary approach to create synergies between the current research by the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) and the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). We have highlighted the importance of ocean inequality as a critical aspect to consider to unlock current barriers to integrate social sciences in marine integrated assessments. To create bridges between them, we develop an Ocean's Benefits to People (OBP) framework that embraces the blue economy, equity, the UN SDGs goals and support an Ecosystem-Based Management (EBM) for the oceans.     

Patterns and Emerging Trends in Global Ocean Health

International and regional policies aimed at managing ocean ecosystem health need quantitative and comprehensive indices to synthesize information from a variety of sources, consistently measure progress, and communicate with key constituencies and the public. Here we present the second annual global assessment of the Ocean Health Index, reporting current scores and annual changes since 2012, recalculated using updated methods and data based on the best available science, for 221 coastal countries and territories. The Index measures performance of ten societal goals for healthy oceans on a quantitative scale of increasing health from 0 to 100, and combines these scores into a single Index score, for each country and globally. The global Index score improved one point (from 67 to 68), while many country-level Index and goal scores had larger changes. Per-country Index scores ranged from 41–95 and, on average, improved by 0.06 points (range -8 to +12). Globally, average scores increased for individual goals by as much as 6.5 points (coastal economies) and decreased by as much as 1.2 points (natural products). Annual updates of the Index, even when not all input data have been updated, provide valuable information to scientists, policy makers, and resource managers because patterns and trends can emerge from the data that have been updated. Changes of even a few points indicate potential successes (when scores increase) that merit recognition, or concerns (when scores decrease) that may require mitigative action, with changes of more than 10–20 points representing large shifts that deserve greater attention. Goal scores showed remarkably little covariance across regions, indicating low redundancy in the Index, such that each goal delivers information about a different facet of ocean health. Together these scores provide a snapshot of global ocean health and suggest where countries have made progress and where a need for further improvement exists.     

An indicator framework for assessing progress in land and marine planning in Colombia and Cuba

Achievement of environmental management goals and objectives in coastal areas, including how to measure success, remains a significant subject for discussion among scholars and practitioners, meanwhile four distinct management efforts potentially converge within the coastal zone: land-use planning (LUP), river basin management (RBM), marine spatial planning (MSP) and integrated coastal management (ICM). This paper examines the general lack of attention being paid to overlapping spatial boundaries within the landward and marine areas and proposes an indicator-based framework to measure the effectiveness of the individual planning instruments, as opposed to specific initiatives, in achieving management goals. The six indicators used in the framework (planning; participation; communication; integration; responsibility and balance) are based on a modified version of the Coastal Sustainability Standard methodology described by Gallagher (2010). The framework provides for four scenarios of progress in three geographical dimensions (river, municipality and marine area) to be assessed. For this study, the Caribbean coast of Colombia and Cuba were identified as the areas to test the feasibility and relevance of the indicator framework to monitor progress in the different management approaches established to achieve coastal sustainability. Several key observations and lessons from the indicator-based framework are discussed in order to analyze the overlapping of the four space-based instruments, identify areas for targeted intervention and improve their integration.     

厦门海域岩相海岸带疣荔枝螺（Thais clavigera）与甲虫螺（Cantharus cecillei）性畸变

海产腹足类性畸变以其对有机锡的敏感性、特异性和不可逆性而成为海洋有机锡污染的理想指示种.调查研究了厦门海域岩相海岸带疣荔枝螺(Thais clavigera)和甲虫螺(Cantharus cecillei)的性畸变情况,通过生物学指标IOI(性畸变率)、RPSI(相对阴茎发展指数)、VDSI(输精管发展指数)及SRI(性比指数)综合评价其性畸变发展程度,间接指示厦门周边海域的有机锡污染程度.研究结果发现,在采集疣荔枝螺的17个站点中有5个站点种群性畸变率为100%,其中宝珠屿种群性畸变程度最为严重,VDSI达4,采集甲虫螺的4个站点的种群性畸变率均为100%.性畸变程度较严重的种群普遍集中于厦门西港,并且表现出由港内到港外逐渐减轻的趋势,而白城、会展中心和大嶝岛等位于开阔的厦门东海域的种群性畸变程度最轻,与往年厦门西海域有机锡污染监测数据相比一致,体现出性畸变程度与有机锡污染程度及海港码头远近之间的相互关系.     

Biomass changes and trophic amplification of plankton in a warmer ocean

Ocean warming can modify the ecophysiology and distribution of marine organisms, and relationships between species, with nonlinear interactions between ecosystem components potentially resulting in trophic amplification. Trophic amplification (or attenuation) describe the propagation of a hydroclimatic signal up the food web, causing magnification (or depression) of biomass values along one or more trophic pathways. We have employed 3‐D coupled physical‐biogeochemical models to explore ecosystem responses to climate change with a focus on trophic amplification. The response of phytoplankton and zooplankton to global climate‐change projections, carried out with the IPSL Earth System Model by the end of the century, is analysed at global and regional basis, including European seas (NE Atlantic, Barents Sea, Baltic Sea, Black Sea, Bay of Biscay, Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea) and the Eastern Boundary Upwelling System (Benguela). Results indicate that globally and in Atlantic Margin and North Sea, increased ocean stratification causes primary production and zooplankton biomass to decrease in response to a warming climate, whilst in the Barents, Baltic and Black Seas, primary production and zooplankton biomass increase. Projected warming characterized by an increase in sea surface temperature of 2.29 ± 0.05 °C leads to a reduction in zooplankton and phytoplankton biomasses of 11% and 6%, respectively. This suggests negative amplification of climate driven modifications of trophic level biomass through bottom‐up control, leading to a reduced capacity of oceans to regulate climate through the biological carbon pump. Simulations suggest negative amplification is the dominant response across 47% of the ocean surface and prevails in the tropical oceans; whilst positive trophic amplification prevails in the Arctic and Antarctic oceans. Trophic attenuation is projected in temperate seas. Uncertainties in ocean plankton projections, associated to the use of single global and regional models, imply the need for caution when extending these considerations into higher trophic levels.     

耦合生态系统服务供求关系的生态安全格局动态分析——以闽三角城市群为例

实现分区管理是缓解城市群生态安全空间差异的有利途径。基于供求理论构建了生态系统服务供求关系动态模型框架,并利用供给与需求的象限区划表征闽三角城市群生态安全格局;在不同的尺度变换上,运用价值单量修正模型、INVEST生境质量模型、景观指数模型、生态韧性模型、熵权法等方法综合测度城市群生态系统服务供求水平,实现生态安全格局的分区化;引入环境库兹涅茨曲线理论解析区域生态安全格局现状和成因;数据分析借助Arc GIS可视化表示。研究发现:(1)闽三角城市群存在50%区域属于生态安全高供给失衡区,其中70%属漳州市境内;32.14%属于高需求失衡区,集中于市辖区与沿海地区;17.86%属于双维度失衡区;未存在单元位于双维度共赢区上。(2)区域生态系统服务供给颇佳而需求滞后,城市群东南沿海区域与周边区域格局差异明显,供给(需求)呈现由沿海向内陆梯次增(减)的空间分异规律。(3)城市群尚处于生态安全库兹涅茨曲线的"两难阶段",同时导致了城市群生态安全格局空间异质性的产生。     

Capitation funding: population,age, and mortality adjustments for regional and district health authorities in England.

OBJECTIVE--To assess the effect of each of the components of the national capitation funding formula--population projections and age and mortality weighting--at regional and district level. DESIGN--Application of age-cost and mortality weights to the projected 1997 populations of regions and districts, based on the Department of Health public health common dataset. SETTING--Regional and district health authorities in England. RESULTS--The application of the age-cost and mortality weights to projected populations resulted in greater changes in the shares of weighted populations relative to the estimated 1991 population at district level (mean 0, range -17% to 28%) than at regional level (mean 0, range -9% to 6%). At district level mortality weights had less scope for influence (mean 0, range -9% to 14%) than population projections (mean 0, range -16% to 31%) or age weights (mean 0, range -20% to 30%). CONCLUSIONS--The adjustments to the 1991 population shares due to the application of the national capitation funding formula depend on the interaction of three elements: the projected population by age group, the age-cost weight, and the mortality weight. Since each is open to uncertainty, either in terms of measurement (projected population, particularly for births and the over 85s) or method (derivation of the age-cost and mortality weights), the formula should be implemented cautiously at district level. Ways should be considered of incorporating elements of uncertainty into the model. Further research is required on the elements and degree of uncertainty in each of these components, as well as on the relative health needs of different populations.     

A Note on a Comparison of the Ocean Governance System Between Mainland China and Taiwan

With the increasing use of the oceans and coastal areas, there is a need to pay greater attention to and reexamine the issue of ocean governance. Through comparing the framework of ocean governance in mainland China with that in Taiwan in terms of legislation, administration, and law enforcement, this article establishes that there are advanced practices concerning ocean governance in Taiwan and lessons that may be applicable for mainland China.     

Global phylogeography of marine Synechococcus and Prochlorococcus reveals a distinct partitioning of lineages among oceanic biomes

Marine cyanobacteria of the genera Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus are important contributors to global primary production occupying a key position at the base of marine food webs. The genetically diverse nature of each genus is likely an important reason for their successful colonization of vast tracts of the world's oceans, a feature that has led to detailed analysis of the distribution of these genetic lineages at the local and ocean basin scale. Here, we extend these analyses to the global dimension, using new data from cruises in the Pacific, Indian and Arctic Oceans in combination with data from previous studies in the Atlantic Ocean, Arabian Sea, Red Sea and a circumnavigation of the southern hemisphere to form a data set which comprises most of the world's major ocean systems. We show that the distribution patterns of Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus lineages are remarkably similar in different ocean systems with comparable environmental conditions, but producing a strikingly different 'signature' in the four major ocean domains or biomes (the Polar Domain, Coastal Boundary Domain, Trade Winds Domain and Westerly Winds Domain). This clearly reiterates the idea of spatial partitioning of individual cyanobacterial lineages, but at the global scale.     

Combining population monitoring with habitat vulnerability to assess conservation status in populations of rare and endangered plants

In this paper, we propose an integrative framework to assess the conservation status of rare plant populations that combines population trends with four criteria to assess habitat vulnerability. We illustrate how population trends can be studied using a presence/absence method for a species that is inappropriate for a demographic study. The four other criteria concern habitat fragmentation, the human footprint in the surrounding landscape, observed impacts on a population and elements of habitat structure and quality that may impinge on population status. Each criterion is assessed with various indicators that can be adapted to the biology and ecology of the studied species. To test the feasibility of the proposed framework, we perform a case study of a Mediterranean geophyte Allium chamaemoly L., a species listed for protection in France. The results show a wide range of conservation status among a regional set of populations in the study species. Variation among the indicators used to assess different criteria illustrates the importance of assessing a range of different factors and ways to combine them if population conservation status is to be objectively identified. The study of diverse criteria may allow for a more precise assessment of the causes of differences in conservation status among populations of a single species. The framework of five criteria could be adapted by modification or substitution of indicators or adaptation of thresholds among classes, and thus be applied to other species of conservation importance.     

Detangling spaghetti: Tracking deep ocean currents in the Gulf of Mexico

Creation of physical models can help students learn science by enabling them to be more involved in the scientific process of discovery and to use multiple senses during investigations. This activity achieves these goals by having students model ocean currents in the Gulf of Mexico. In general, oceans play a key role in influencing weather patterns and climate. Water movement also affects fisheries through transport of various fish and invertebrate species as well as their predators and prey. Currents also impact the dispersion of pollutants, as in after an oil spill such as the catastrophe of the Deepwater Horizon oil rig in 2010. Currents exist deep in the ocean, and they do not always travel in the same direction as currents at the surface. This concept of the existence of ocean currents below the surface can be hard to explain, but we provide methodology for sharing this information in a way that is accessible to K–12 students, including the visually impaired. In addition to the NGSS standards and Ocean Literacy principles addressed, this activity has larger implications related to socioeconomics and international law.     

Solutions for ecosystem‐level protection of ocean systems under climate change

The Paris Conference of Parties (COP21) agreement renewed momentum for action against climate change, creating the space for solutions for conservation of the ocean addressing two of its largest threats: climate change and ocean acidification (CCOA). Recent arguments that ocean policies disregard a mature conservation research field and that protected areas cannot address climate change may be oversimplistic at this time when dynamic solutions for the management of changing oceans are needed. We propose a novel approach, based on spatial meta‐analysis of climate impact models, to improve the positioning of marine protected areas to limit CCOA impacts. We do this by estimating the vulnerability of ocean ecosystems to CCOA in a spatially explicit manner and then co‐mapping human activities such as the placement of renewable energy developments and the distribution of marine protected areas. We test this approach in the NE Atlantic considering also how CCOA impacts the base of the food web which supports protected species, an aspect often neglected in conservation studies. We found that, in this case, current regional conservation plans protect areas with low ecosystem‐level vulnerability to CCOA, but disregard how species may redistribute to new, suitable and productive habitats. Under current plans, these areas remain open to commercial extraction and other uses. Here, and worldwide, ocean conservation strategies under CCOA must recognize the long‐term importance of these habitat refuges, and studies such as this one are needed to identify them. Protecting these areas creates adaptive, climate‐ready and ecosystem‐level policy options for conservation, suitable for changing oceans.     

The future of ocean governance

Ocean governance is complex and influenced by multiple drivers and actors with different worldviews and goals. While governance encompasses many elements, in this paper we focus on the processes that operate within and between states, civil society and local communities, and the market, including industry. Specifically, in this paper, we address the question of how to move towards more sustainable ocean governance aligning with the sustainable development goals (SDGs) and the UN Ocean Decade. We address three major risks to oceans that arise from governance-related issues: (1) the impacts of the overexploitation of marine resources; (2) inequitable distribution of access to and benefits from marine ecosystem services, and (3) inadequate or inappropriate adaptation to changing ocean conditions. The SDGs have been used as an underlying framework to develop these risks. We identify five drivers that may determine how ocean governance evolves, namely formal rules and institutions, evidence and knowledge-based decision-making, legitimacy of decision-making institutions, stakeholder engagement and participation, and empowering communities. These drivers were used to define two alternative futures by 2030: (a) ‘Business as Usual’—a continuation of current trajectories and (b) ‘More Sustainable Future’—optimistic, transformational, but technically achievable. We then identify what actions, as structured processes, can reduce the three major governance-related risks and lead to the More Sustainable Future. These actions relate to the process of co-creation and implementation of improved, comprehensive, and integrated management plans, enhancement of decision-making processes, and better anticipation and consideration of ambiguity and uncertainty.

     

Incidence of caries in children of rural and subrural areas in Croatia

The aim of this paper was to determine certain regularities in caries incidence in children in primary and permanent dentition in respect of clinical and non-clinical variables that can be collected in everyday dental practice. This way it could be easier for the operator to adjust individual preventive therapy of patients. The study was conducted on 301 subjects, aged 3-6 (74 subjects) and 11-14 (227 subjects) inhabitants of Petrinja and Topusko, postwar rural and subrural areas in Central Croatia. Using an oral hygiene questionnaire, habits, diet and use of fluoride were assessed. The clinical finding comprised the dental status, amount of stimulated saliva, oral hygiene index and the presence of orthodontic anomaly. Children showed very high values of the dmf-t/DMF-T (decayed, missing, filled index) (7.7/6.7), dmf-s/DMF-S (16.5/11.8), and significant index of caries (SiC = 10.89). The study confirmed correlation between the OHI (oral hygiene index) and dmf-t/DMF-T and dmf-s/DMF-S index, and the influence of the regularity of dental check-ups and frequency of tooth brushing on OHI. Furthermore, the children that started practicing oral hygiene later, brush their teeth irregularly, and visit dentists only when having pain. It can be concluded that Croatia is still very far from achieving the goals set by WHO concerning oral health improvement.     

The Legal Regulation of Floats and Gliders—In Quest of a New Regime?

This article analyzes the legal status of unmanned instruments (particularly, floats and gliders) for observation purposes in the ocean environment. These new kinds of instruments are being deployed by the thousands into the oceans, not the least as part of the Argo Project of the International Oceanographic Commission. Their uncontrolled drifting has raised legal questions, especially when such instruments enter waters subject to the jurisdiction of foreign states. The authors argue that the current international legal framework is insufficient to address the pertinent issues, and that a new legal regime is needed.