Measuring Health-Related Quality of Life in Strabismus: A Modification of the Adult Strabismus-20 (AS-20) Questionnaire Using Rasch Analysis

PurposeTo evaluate the psychometric properties of the Adult Strabismus-20 (AS-20)- a health-related quality of life (HRQoL) questionnaire in adults with strabismus, and if flawed, to revise the AS-20 and its subscales creating valid measurement scales.Methods584 adults (meanage, 27.5 years) with strabismus were recruited from an outpatient clinic at a South Indian tertiary eye care centre and were administered the AS-20 questionnaire.The AS-20 was translated and back translated into two Indian languages. The AS-20 and its two 10-item subscales – ‘psychosocial’ and ‘function’were assessed separately for fit to the Rasch model, including an assessment of the rating scale, unidimensionality (by principal components analysis), measurement precision by person separation reliability, PSR, targeting, and differential item functioning (DIF; notable > 1.0 logits).ResultsResponse categories were not used as intended, thereby, required re-organization and reducing their number from 5 to 3. The AS-20 had adequate measurement precision (PSR = 0.87) but lacked unidimensionality; however, deletion of the six multi-dimensionality causing items and an additional three misfitting items resulted in 11-item unidimensional questionnaire (AS-11). Two items failed to satisfy the model expectations in the ‘psychosocial’ subscale and were deleted – resulting in an 8-item unidimensional scale with adequate PSR (0.81) and targeting (0.23 logits). One item misfit in the ‘function’ subscale and was deleted—resulting in a 9 item Rasch-revised unidimensional subscale with acceptable PSR (0.80) and targeting (0.97 logits).None of the items displayed notable DIF by age, gender and level of education.ConclusionsThe AS-11 and its two Rasch-revised subscales – 8-item psychosocial and 9-item function subscale may be more appropriate than the original AS-20 and its two 10-item subscales for use as unidimensional measures of HRQoL in adults with strabismus in India. Further work is required to establish the validity of the revised rating scale.     

Course of Symptoms and Health-Related Quality of Life during Specialized Pre-Dialysis Care

Background

Concerns are present on the limited value of renal function alone in defining the optimal moment to start dialysis. Disease-related symptoms and health-related quality of life (HRQOL) may have additional clinical value in defining this moment, but little is known about how these parameters change during pre-dialysis care. The aims of our study were to describe the course of symptoms and HRQOL during pre-dialysis care and to investigate their association with poor health outcomes.

Methods

In the prospective PREPARE-2 cohort, incident patients starting specialized pre-dialysis care were included when referred to one of the 25 participating Dutch outpatient clinics (2004–2011). In the present analysis, 436 patients with data available on symptoms and HRQOL were included. Clinical data, symptoms (revised illness perception questionnaire), and HRQOL (short form-36 questionnaire; physical and mental summary score) were collected every 6-month interval. A time-dependent Cox proportional hazard model was used to associate symptoms and HRQOL with the combined poor health outcome (i.e. starting dialysis, receiving a kidney transplant, and death).

Results

All symptoms increased, especially fatigue and loss of strength, and both the physical and mental summary score decreased over time, with the most pronounced change during the last 6–12 months of follow-up. Furthermore, each additional symptom (adjusted HR 1.04 (95% CI, 1.00–1.09)) and each 3-point lower physical and mental summary score (adjusted HR 1.04 (1.02–1.06) and 1.04 (1.02–1.06) respectively) were associated with a higher risk of reaching the combined poor health outcome within the subsequent 6 months.

Conclusions

The number of symptoms increased and both the physical and mental HRQOL score decreased during pre-dialysis care and these changes were associated with starting dialysis, receiving a kidney transplant, and death. These results may indicate that symptoms and HRQOL are good markers for the medical condition and disease stage of pre-dialysis patients.     

Risk factors for the progression of trachomatous scarring in a cohort of women in a trachoma low endemic district in Tanzania

BackgroundTrachoma, a chronic conjunctivitis caused by Chlamydia trachomatis, is the leading infectious cause of blindness worldwide. Trachoma has been targeted for elimination as a public health problem which includes reducing trachomatous inflammation—follicular prevalence in children and reducing trachomatous trichiasis prevalence in adults. The rate of development of trachomatous trichiasis, the potentially blinding late-stage trachoma sequelae, depends on the rate of trachomatous scarring development and progression. Few studies to date have evaluated the progression of trachomatous scarring in communities that have recently transitioned to a low trachomatous inflammation—follicular prevalence.Methodology/Principal findingsWomen aged 15 and older were randomly selected from households in 48 communities within Kongwa district, Tanzania and followed over 3.5 years for this longitudinal study. Trachomatous inflammation—follicular prevalence was 5% at baseline and at follow-up in children aged 1–9 in Kongwa, Tanzania. 1018 women aged 15 and older had trachomatous scarring at baseline and were at risk for trachomatous scarring progression; 691 (68%) completed follow-up assessments. Photographs of the upper tarsal conjunctiva were obtained at baseline and follow-up and graded for trachomatous scarring using a previously published four-step severity scale. The overall cumulative 3.5-year progression rate of scarring was 35.3% (95% CI 31.6–39.1). The odds of TS progression increased with an increase in age in women younger than 50, (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01–1.05, p = 0.005) as well as an increase in the household poverty index (OR 1.29, 95% CI 1.13–1.48, p = 0.0002).Conclusions/SignificanceThe 3.5-year progression of scarring among women in Kongwa, a formerly hyperendemic now turned hypoendemic district in central Tanzania, was high despite a low active trachoma prevalence. This suggests that the drivers of scarring progression are likely not related to on-going trachoma transmission in this district.     

Tuning to the Positive: Age-Related Differences in Subjective Perception of Facial Emotion

Facial expressions aid social transactions and serve as socialization tools, with smiles signaling approval and reward, and angry faces signaling disapproval and punishment. The present study examined whether the subjective experience of positive vs. negative facial expressions differs between children and adults. Specifically, we examined age-related differences in biases toward happy and angry facial expressions. Young children (5–7 years) and young adults (18–29 years) rated the intensity of happy and angry expressions as well as levels of experienced arousal. Results showed that young children—but not young adults—rated happy facial expressions as both more intense and arousing than angry faces. This finding, which we replicated in two independent samples, was not due to differences in the ability to identify facial expressions, and suggests that children are more tuned to information in positive expressions. Together these studies provide evidence that children see unambiguous adult emotional expressions through rose-colored glasses, and suggest that what is emotionally relevant can shift with development.     

Embracing thresholds for better environmental management

Three decades of study have revealed dozens of examples in which natural systems have crossed biophysical thresholds (‘tipping points’)—nonlinear changes in ecosystem structure and function—as a result of human-induced stressors, dramatically altering ecosystem function and services. Environmental management that avoids such thresholds could prevent severe social, economic and environmental impacts. Here, we review management measures implemented in ecological systems that have thresholds. Using Ostrom''s social–ecological systems framework, we analysed key biophysical and institutional factors associated with 51 social–ecological systems and associated management regimes, and related these to management success defined by ecological outcomes. We categorized cases as instances of prospective or retrospective management, based upon whether management aimed to avoid a threshold or to restore systems that have crossed a threshold. We find that smaller systems are more amenable to threshold-based management, that routine monitoring is associated with successful avoidance of thresholds and recovery after thresholds have been crossed, and that success is associated with the explicit threshold-based management. These findings are powerful evidence for the policy relevance of information on ecological thresholds across a wide range of ecosystems.     

Anomalously warm weather and acute care visits in patients with multiple sclerosis: A retrospective study of privately insured individuals in the US

BackgroundAs the global climate changes in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, weather and temperature are expected to become increasingly variable. Although heat sensitivity is a recognized clinical feature of multiple sclerosis (MS), a chronic demyelinating disorder of the central nervous system, few studies have examined the implications of climate change for patients with this disease.Methods and findingsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study of individuals with MS ages 18–64 years in a nationwide United States patient-level commercial and Medicare Advantage claims database from 2003 to 2017. We defined anomalously warm weather as any month in which local average temperatures exceeded the long-term average by ≥1.5°C. We estimated the association between anomalously warm weather and MS-related inpatient, outpatient, and emergency department visits using generalized log-linear models. From 75,395,334 individuals, we identified 106,225 with MS. The majority were women (76.6%) aged 36–55 years (59.0%). Anomalously warm weather was associated with increased risk for emergency department visits (risk ratio [RR] = 1.043, 95% CI: 1.025–1.063) and inpatient visits (RR = 1.032, 95% CI: 1.010–1.054). There was limited evidence of an association between anomalously warm weather and MS-related outpatient visits (RR = 1.010, 95% CI: 1.005–1.015). Estimates were similar for men and women, strongest among older individuals, and exhibited substantial variation by season, region, and climate zone. Limitations of the present study include the absence of key individual-level measures of socioeconomic position (i.e., race/ethnicity, occupational status, and housing quality) that may determine where individuals live—and therefore the extent of their exposure to anomalously warm weather—as well as their propensity to seek treatment for neurologic symptoms.ConclusionsOur findings suggest that as global temperatures rise, individuals with MS may represent a particularly susceptible subpopulation, a finding with implications for both healthcare providers and systems.     

Changes in survival among elderly patients initiating dialysis from 1990 to 1999

Background

Over the past decade, there has been a steep rise in the number of people with complex medical problems who require dialysis. We sought to determine the life expectancy of elderly patients after starting dialysis and to identify changes in survival rates over time.

Methods

All patients aged 65 years or older who began dialysis in Canada between 1990 and 1999 were identified from the Canadian Organ Replacement Register. We used Cox proportional hazards models to examine the effect that the period during which dialysis was initiated (era 1, 1990–1994; era 2, 1995–1999) had on patient survival, after adjusting for diabetes, sex and comorbidity. Patients were followed from initiation of dialysis until death, transplantation, loss to follow-up or study end (Dec. 31, 2004).

Results

A total of 14 512 patients aged 65 years or older started dialysis between 1990 and 1999. The proportion of these patients who were 75 years or older at the start of dialysis increased from 32.7% in era 1 (1990–1994) to 40.0% in era 2 (1995–1999). Despite increased comorbidity over the 2 study periods, the unadjusted 1-, 3- and 5-year survival rates among patients aged 65–74 years at dialysis initiation rose from 74.4%, 44.9% and 25.8% in era 1 to 78.1%, 51.5% and 33.5% in era 2. The respective survival rates among those aged 75 or more at dialysis initiation increased from 67.2%, 32.3% and 14.2% in era 1 to 69.0%, 36.7% and 20.3% in era 2. This survival advantage persisted after adjustment for diabetes, sex and comorbidity in both age groups (65–74 years: hazard ratio [HR] 0.76, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.72–0.81; 75 years or more: HR 0.86, 95% CI 0.80–0.92).

Interpretation

Survival after dialysis initiation among elderly patients has improved from 1990 to 1999, despite an increasing burden of comorbidity. Physicians may find these data useful when discussing prognosis with elderly patients who are initiating dialysis.Within general medical and subspecialty areas, chronic kidney disease is increasingly recognized as an important comorbid condition that is often associated with prolonged hospital stays and increased morbidity and mortality.^1–3 As a result, internists and other specialists are more likely than before to be involved with the care of patients for whom dialysis needs to be started because of end-stage kidney disease. The majority of patients starting dialysis are 65 years or older at the time of their first treatment, and many are over 75 years.⁴ Given the heightened awareness of chronic kidney disease, its high prevalence, the association with multiple comorbidity, and the impact of dialysis on survival and quality of life, we sought to calculate the mean life expectancy of elderly patients who began dialysis at either 65–74 years of age or at 75 years or more, and to identify whether there was any change in survival probability, or in the effect of comorbidity characteristics, on dialysis over the past decade.     

Free Levels of Selected Organic Solutes and Cardiovascular Morbidity and Mortality in Hemodialysis Patients: Results from the Retained Organic Solutes and Clinical Outcomes (ROSCO) Investigators

Background and Objectives

Numerous substances accumulate in the body in uremia but those contributing to cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in dialysis patients are still undefined. We examined the association of baseline free levels of four organic solutes that are secreted in the native kidney — p-cresol sulfate, indoxyl sulfate, hippurate and phenylacetylglutamine — with outcomes in hemodialysis patients.

Design, Setting, Participants and Measurements

We measured these solutes in stored specimens from 394 participants of a US national prospective cohort study of incident dialysis patients. We examined the relation of each solute and a combined solute index to cardiovascular mortality and morbidity (first cardiovascular event) using Cox proportional hazards regression adjusted for demographics, comorbidities, clinical factors and laboratory tests including Kt/V_UREA.

Results

Mean age of the patients was 57 years, 65% were white and 55% were male. In fully adjusted models, a higher p-cresol sulfate level was associated with a greater risk (HR per SD increase; 95% CI) of cardiovascular mortality (1.62; 1.17–2.25; p=0.004) and first cardiovascular event (1.60; 1.23–2.08; p<0.001). A higher phenylacetylglutamine level was associated with a greater risk of first cardiovascular event (1.37; 1.18–1.58; p<0.001). Patients in the highest quintile of the combined solute index had a 96% greater risk of cardiovascular mortality (1.96; 1.05–3.68; p=0.04) and 62% greater risk of first cardiovascular event (1.62; 1.12–2.35; p=0.01) compared with patients in the lowest quintile. Results were robust in sensitivity analyses.

Conclusions

Free levels of uremic solutes that are secreted by the native kidney are associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in incident hemodialysis patients.     

Paediatric Acute Kidney Injury in a Tertiary Hospital in Nigeria: Prevalence,Causes and Mortality Rate

Background

The modest decline in child mortality in Africa raises the question whether the pattern of diseases associated with acute kidney injury (AKI) in children in Nigeria has changed.

Methods

A database of children, aged between one month and 16 years, with AKI (using modified pediatric RIFLE criteria) was reviewed. The cause of AKI was defined as the major underlying disease. The clinical and laboratory features of children with AKI who survived were compared to those who died.

Results

Of the 4 015 children admitted into Lagos University Teaching Hospital between July 2010 and July 2012, 70 episodes of AKI were recorded equalling 17.4 cases per 1000 children. The median age of the children with AKI was 4.8 (range 0.1–14.4) years and 68.6% were males. Acute kidney injury was present in 58 (82.9%) children at admission with 70% in ‘failure’ category. Primary kidney disease (38.6%), sepsis (25.7%) and malaria (11.4%) were the commonest causes. The primary kidney diseases were acute glomerulonephritis (11) and nephrotic syndrome (8). Nineteen (28.4%) children with AKI died. Need for dialysis [odds ratio: 10.04 (2.94–34.33)], white cell >15 000/mm³ [odds ratio: 5.72 (1.65–19.89)] and platelet <100 000/mm³ [odds ratio: 9.56 (2.63–34.77)] were associated with death.

Conclusion

Acute kidney injury is common in children admitted to hospitals. The common causes remain primary kidney diseases, sepsis and malaria but the contribution of sepsis is rising while malaria and gastroenteritis are declining. Acute kidney injury-related mortality remains high.     

The Concordance between Patients’ Renal Replacement Therapy Choice and Definitive Modality: Is It a Utopia?

IntroductionIt is desirable for patients to play active roles in the choice of renal replacement therapy (RRT). Patient decision aid tools (PDAs) have been developed to allow the patients to choose the option best suited to their individual needs.ResultsPatients included in this study: 1044. Of these, 569 patients used PDAs and had made a definitive choice by the end of registration. A total of 88.4% of patients chose dialysis [43% hemodialysis (HD) and 45% peritoneal dialysis (PD)] 3.2% preemptive living-donor transplant (TX), and 8.4% conservative treatment (CT). A total of 399 patients began RRT during this period. The distribution was 93.4% dialysis (53.6% HD; 40% PD), 1.3% preemptive TX and 5.3% CT. The patients who followed the EP changed their mind significantly less often [kappa value of 0.91 (95% CI, 0.86–0.95)] than those who did not follow it, despite starting unplanned treatment [kappa value of 0.85 (95% CI, 0.75–0.95]. A higher agreement between the final choice and a definitive treatment was achieved by the EP and planned patients [kappa value of 0.93 (95% CI, 0.89–0.98)]. Those who did not go through the EP had a much lower index of choosing PD and changed their decision more frequently when starting definitive treatment [kappa value of 0.73 (95% CI, 0.55–0.91)].ConclusionsFree choice, assisted by PDAs, leads to a 50/50 distribution of PD and HD choice and an increase in TX choice. The use of PDAs, even with an unplanned start, achieved a high level of concordance between the chosen and definitive modality.     

Prevalence and Correlates of HIV Testing among Young People Enrolled in Non-Formal Education Centers in Urban Chiang Mai,Thailand: A Cross-Sectional Study

BackgroundHIV testing is the gateway to HIV prevention, treatment, and care. Despite the established vulnerability of young Thai people to HIV infection, studies examining the prevalence and correlates of HIV testing among the general population of Thai youth are still very limited. This study investigates socio-demographic, behavioral, and psychosocial factors associated with HIV testing among young Thai people enrolled in Non-formal Education Centers (NFEC) in urban Chiang Mai, Northern Thailand.MethodsThis was a cross-sectional quantitative study conducted among young unmarried Thai youth—between the ages of 15 and 24—who were enrolled in NFEC in urban Chiang Mai. Multiple logistic regressions were used to identify correlates of “ever tested for HIV” among the sexually active participants.FindingsOf the 295 sexually active participants, 27.3% reported “ever tested for HIV;” 65.4% “did not consistently use condom;” and 61.7% “had at least 2 lifetime partners.” We found that “self-efficacy” (AOR, 4.92; CI, 1.22–19.73); “perception that it is easy to find a location nearby to test for HIV” (AOR, 4.67; CI, 1.21–18.06); “having at least 2 lifetime sexual partners” (AOR, 2.05; CI, 1.09–3.85); and “ever been pregnant or made someone pregnant” (AOR, 4.06; CI, 2.69–9.15); were associated with increased odds of having ever been tested. On the other hand, “fear of HIV test results” (AOR, 0.21; CI, 0.08–0.57) was associated with lower odds of ever having been tested for HIV.ConclusionThe main finding is that a substantially high proportion of Thai youth is engaged in risky sexual behaviors—yet reports low rates of ever having been tested for HIV. This highlights an urgent need to develop appropriate interventions—based on the identified correlates of HIV testing. There is also an urgent need to enhance HIV testing and to promote safer sexual behaviors among young Thai people—particularly those who are out-of-school.     

Symptom burden and health-related quality of life in chronic kidney disease: A global systematic review and meta-analysis

BackgroundThe importance of patient-reported outcome measurement in chronic kidney disease (CKD) populations has been established. However, there remains a lack of research that has synthesised data around CKD-specific symptom and health-related quality of life (HRQOL) burden globally, to inform focused measurement of the most relevant patient-important information in a way that minimises patient burden. The aim of this review was to synthesise symptom prevalence/severity and HRQOL data across the following CKD clinical groups globally: (1) stage 1–5 and not on renal replacement therapy (RRT), (2) receiving dialysis, or (3) in receipt of a kidney transplant.Methods and findingsMEDLINE, PsycINFO, and CINAHL were searched for English-language cross-sectional/longitudinal studies reporting prevalence and/or severity of symptoms and/or HRQOL in CKD, published between January 2000 and September 2021, including adult patients with CKD, and measuring symptom prevalence/severity and/or HRQOL using a patient-reported outcome measure (PROM). Random effects meta-analyses were used to pool data, stratified by CKD group: not on RRT, receiving dialysis, or in receipt of a kidney transplant. Methodological quality of included studies was assessed using the Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal Checklist for Studies Reporting Prevalence Data, and an exploration of publication bias performed. The search identified 1,529 studies, of which 449, with 199,147 participants from 62 countries, were included in the analysis. Studies used 67 different symptom and HRQOL outcome measures, which provided data on 68 reported symptoms. Random effects meta-analyses highlighted the considerable symptom and HRQOL burden associated with CKD, with fatigue particularly prevalent, both in patients not on RRT (14 studies, 4,139 participants: 70%, 95% CI 60%–79%) and those receiving dialysis (21 studies, 2,943 participants: 70%, 95% CI 64%–76%). A number of symptoms were significantly (p < 0.05 after adjustment for multiple testing) less prevalent and/or less severe within the post-transplantation population, which may suggest attribution to CKD (fatigue, depression, itching, poor mobility, poor sleep, and dry mouth). Quality of life was commonly lower in patients on dialysis (36-Item Short Form Health Survey [SF-36] Mental Component Summary [MCS] 45.7 [95% CI 45.5–45.8]; SF-36 Physical Component Summary [PCS] 35.5 [95% CI 35.3–35.6]; 91 studies, 32,105 participants for MCS and PCS) than in other CKD populations (patients not on RRT: SF-36 MCS 66.6 [95% CI 66.5–66.6], p = 0.002; PCS 66.3 [95% CI 66.2–66.4], p = 0.002; 39 studies, 24,600 participants; transplant: MCS 50.0 [95% CI 49.9–50.1], p = 0.002; PCS 48.0 [95% CI 47.9–48.1], p = 0.002; 39 studies, 9,664 participants). Limitations of the analysis are the relatively few studies contributing to symptom severity estimates and inconsistent use of PROMs (different measures and time points) across the included literature, which hindered interpretation.ConclusionsThe main findings highlight the considerable symptom and HRQOL burden associated with CKD. The synthesis provides a detailed overview of the symptom/HRQOL profile across clinical groups, which may support healthcare professionals when discussing, measuring, and managing the potential treatment burden associated with CKD.Protocol registrationPROSPERO CRD42020164737.

In a systematic review and meta analysis, Benjamin R. Fletcher and colleagues study patient-reported symptom prevalence, severity, and health related quality of life among individuals with different stages of chronic kidney disease in 62 countries.     

Cinacalcet in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease: A Cumulative Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials

Background

Calcimimetic agents lower serum parathyroid hormone levels in people with chronic kidney disease (CKD), but treatment effects on patient-relevant outcomes are uncertain. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to summarize the benefits and harms of calcimimetic therapy in adults with CKD and used cumulative meta-analysis to identify how evidence for calcimimetic treatment has developed in this clinical setting.

Methods and Findings

Cochrane and Embase databases (through February 7, 2013) were electronically searched to identify randomized trials evaluating effects of calcimimetic therapy on mortality and adverse events in adults with CKD. Two independent reviewers identified trials, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias.Eighteen trials comprising 7,446 participants compared cinacalcet plus conventional therapy with placebo or no treatment plus conventional therapy in adults with CKD. In moderate- to high-quality evidence (based on Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation criteria) in adults with CKD stage 5D (dialysis), cinacalcet had little or no effect on all-cause mortality (relative risk, 0.97 [95% confidence interval, 0.89–1.05]), had imprecise effect on cardiovascular mortality (0.67 [0.16–2.87]), and prevented parathyroidectomy (0.49 [0.40–0.59]) and hypercalcemia (0.23 [0.05–0.97]), but increased hypocalcemia (6.98 [5.10–9.53]), nausea (2.02 [1.45–2.81]), and vomiting (1.97 [1.73–2.24]). Data for clinical outcomes were sparse in adults with CKD stages 3–5. On average, treating 1,000 people with CKD stage 5D for 1 y had no effect on survival and prevented about three patients from experiencing parathyroidectomy, whilst 60 experienced hypocalcemia and 150 experienced nausea. Analyses were limited by insufficient data in CKD stages 3–5 and kidney transplant recipients.

Conclusions

Cinacalcet reduces the need for parathyroidectomy in patients with CKD stage 5D, but does not appear to improve all-cause or cardiovascular mortality. Additional trials in CKD stage 5D are unlikely to change our confidence in the treatment effects of cinacalcet in this population. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Routine HIV Testing in Adolescents and Young Adults Presenting to an Outpatient Clinic in Durban,South Africa

Objectives

Although youth (12–24 years) in Sub-Saharan Africa have a high HIV risk, many have poor access to HIV testing services and are unaware of their status. Our objective was to evaluate the proportion of adolescents (12–17 years) and young adults (18–24 years) who underwent HIV testing and the prevalence among those tested in an urban adult outpatient clinic with a routine HIV testing program in Durban, South Africa.

Design

We conducted a retrospective cross-sectional analysis of adolescent and young adult outpatient records between February 2008 and December 2009.

Methods

We determined the number of unique outpatient visitors, HIV tests, and positive rapid tests among those tested.

Results

During the study period, 956 adolescents registered in the outpatient clinic, of which 527 (55%) were female. Among adolescents, 260/527 (49%, 95% CI 45–54%) females underwent HIV testing compared to 129/429 (30%, 95% CI 26–35%) males (p<0.01). The HIV prevalence among the 389 (41%, 95% CI 38–44%) adolescents who underwent testing was 16% (95% CI 13–20%) and did not vary by gender (p = 0.99). During this period, there were 2,351 young adult registrations, and of these 1,492 (63%) were female. The proportion consenting for HIV testing was similar among females 980/1,492 (66%, 95% CI 63–68%) and males 543/859 (63%, 95% CI 60–66%, p = 0.25). Among the 1,523 (65%, 95% CI 63–67%) young adults who underwent testing, the HIV prevalence was 22% (95% CI 19–24%) in females versus 14% in males (95% CI 11–17%, p<0.01).

Conclusions

Although the HIV prevalence is high among youth participating in an adult outpatient clinic routine HIV program, the uptake of testing is low, especially among 12–17 year old males. There is an urgent need to offer targeted, age-appropriate routine HIV testing to youth presenting to outpatient clinics in epidemic settings.     

Low Prevalence of Conjunctival Infection with Chlamydia trachomatis in a Treatment-Na?ve Trachoma-Endemic Region of the Solomon Islands

BackgroundTrachoma is endemic in several Pacific Island states. Recent surveys across the Solomon Islands indicated that whilst trachomatous inflammation—follicular (TF) was present at levels warranting intervention, the prevalence of trachomatous trichiasis (TT) was low. We set out to determine the relationship between chlamydial infection and trachoma in this population.MethodsWe conducted a population-based trachoma prevalence survey of 3674 individuals from two Solomon Islands provinces. Participants were examined for clinical signs of trachoma. Conjunctival swabs were collected from all children aged 1–9 years. We tested swabs for Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct) DNA using droplet digital PCR. Chlamydial DNA from positive swabs was enriched and sequenced for use in phylogenetic analysis.ResultsWe observed a moderate prevalence of TF in children aged 1–9 years (n = 296/1135, 26.1%) but low prevalence of trachomatous inflammation—intense (TI) (n = 2/1135, 0.2%) and current Ct infection (n = 13/1002, 1.3%) in children aged 1–9 years, and TT in those aged 15+ years (n = 2/2061, 0.1%). Ten of 13 (76.9%) cases of infection were in persons with TF or TI (p = 0.0005). Sequence analysis of the Ct-positive samples yielded 5/13 (38%) complete (>95% coverage of reference) genome sequences, and 8/13 complete plasmid sequences. Complete sequences all aligned most closely to ocular serovar reference strains.DiscussionThe low prevalence of TT, TI and Ct infection that we observed are incongruent with the high proportion of children exhibiting signs of TF. TF is present at levels that apparently warrant intervention, but the scarcity of other signs of trachoma indicates the phenotype is mild and may not pose a significant public health threat. Our data suggest that, whilst conjunctival Ct infection appears to be present in the region, it is present at levels that are unlikely to be the dominant driving force for TF in the population. This could be one reason for the low prevalence of TT observed during the study.     

Estimated impact of RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine allocation strategies in sub-Saharan Africa: A modelling study

BackgroundThe RTS,S/AS01 vaccine against Plasmodium falciparum malaria infection completed phase III trials in 2014 and demonstrated efficacy against clinical malaria of approximately 36% over 4 years for a 4-dose schedule in children aged 5–17 months. Pilot vaccine implementation has recently begun in 3 African countries. If the pilots demonstrate both a positive health impact and resolve remaining safety concerns, wider roll-out could be recommended from 2021 onwards. Vaccine demand may, however, outstrip initial supply. We sought to identify where vaccine introduction should be prioritised to maximise public health impact under a range of supply constraints using mathematical modelling.Methods and findingsUsing a mathematical model of P. falciparum malaria transmission and RTS,S vaccine impact, we estimated the clinical cases and deaths averted in children aged 0–5 years in sub-Saharan Africa under 2 scenarios for vaccine coverage (100% and realistic) and 2 scenarios for other interventions (current coverage and World Health Organization [WHO] Global Technical Strategy targets). We used a prioritisation algorithm to identify potential allocative efficiency gains from prioritising vaccine allocation among countries or administrative units to maximise cases or deaths averted. If malaria burden at introduction is similar to current levels—assuming realistic vaccine coverage and country-level prioritisation in areas with parasite prevalence >10%—we estimate that 4.3 million malaria cases (95% credible interval [CrI] 2.8–6.8 million) and 22,000 deaths (95% CrI 11,000–35,000) in children younger than 5 years could be averted annually at a dose constraint of 30 million. This decreases to 3.0 million cases (95% CrI 2.0–4.7 million) and 14,000 deaths (95% CrI 7,000–23,000) at a dose constraint of 20 million, and increases to 6.6 million cases (95% CrI 4.2–10.8 million) and 38,000 deaths (95% CrI 18,000–61,000) at a dose constraint of 60 million. At 100% vaccine coverage, these impact estimates increase to 5.2 million cases (95% CrI 3.5–8.2 million) and 27,000 deaths (95% CrI 14,000–43,000), 3.9 million cases (95% CrI 2.7–6.0 million) and 19,000 deaths (95% CrI 10,000–30,000), and 10.0 million cases (95% CrI 6.7–15.7 million) and 51,000 deaths (95% CrI 25,000–82,000), respectively. Under realistic vaccine coverage, if the vaccine is prioritised sub-nationally, 5.3 million cases (95% CrI 3.5–8.2 million) and 24,000 deaths (95% CrI 12,000–38,000) could be averted at a dose constraint of 30 million. Furthermore, sub-national prioritisation would allow introduction in almost double the number of countries compared to national prioritisation (21 versus 11). If vaccine introduction is prioritised in the 3 pilot countries (Ghana, Kenya, and Malawi), health impact would be reduced, but this effect becomes less substantial (change of <5%) if 50 million or more doses are available. We did not account for within-country variation in vaccine coverage, and the optimisation was based on a single outcome measure, therefore this study should be used to understand overall trends rather than guide country-specific allocation.ConclusionsThese results suggest that the impact of constraints in vaccine supply on the public health impact of the RTS,S malaria vaccine could be reduced by introducing the vaccine at the sub-national level and prioritising countries with the highest malaria incidence.

Alexandra Hogan and colleagues explore strategies to optimize vaccine allocation for maximum public health benefit in the face of potential supply constraints.     

Serology,infection, and clinical trachoma as tools in prevalence surveys for re-emergence of trachoma in a formerly hyperendemic district

BackgroundTo eliminate trachoma as a public health problem, countries must achieve a district-level prevalence of trachomatous inflammation—follicular (TF) <5% in children ages 1–9 years. Re-emergence of TF could trigger additional rounds of mass drug/antibiotic administration (MDA), so accurate tools for use in surveys assessing trachoma prevalence are essential.Methodology & principal findingsWe surveyed 2401 children ages 1–9 years from 50 villages in Kongwa, Tanzania, 2 years post-MDA and 1.5 years after an impact survey found TF <5% in the same villages. Our survey included multiple tools: clinical determination of TF, Cepheid testing for Chlamydia trachomatis infection, and testing for anti-pgp3 antibodies via multiplex bead array. Photographs of the upper tarsal conjunctiva were taken in a subset of children to corroborate the field grades.Overall TF prevalence in 1–9 year olds was 7.1% (95% CI: 5.6%-8.9%), which decreased with age (p = <0.0001). TF prevalence by village was heterogeneous, with 19 villages having TF <5% and 16 villages having TF >10%. There was a strong correlation between field and photo grading of TF (kappa = 0.69; 95% CI: 0.60–0.78) and between TF and infection, with 21.5% of TF-positive children also testing positive for infection, as compared to only 1.6% of TF-negative children (p = 0.0010). Overall seroprevalence was 18.2% (95% CI: 14.8%-22.1%), which increased with age (p = <0.0001). Notably, 1–2 year olds, who were born after the cessation of MDA and theoretically should not have had exposure to C. trachomatis in the absence of transmission, had an average seroprevalence of 6.7%.Conclusions & significanceField TF prevalence, supported by photographic review and infection data, suggested re-emergence of trachoma in Kongwa. Moreover, seropositivity in the children born after cessation of MDA indicated exposure to C. trachomatis despite a previous survey finding of TF <5%. Examining seropositivity in specific age groups expected to have limited exposure to C. trachomatis can be used to detect re-emergence.     

Predicting death in home care users: derivation and validation of the Risk Evaluation for Support: Predictions for Elder-Life in the Community Tool (RESPECT)

BACKGROUND:Prognostication tools that report personalized mortality risk and survival could improve discussions about end-of-life and advance care planning. We sought to develop and validate a mortality risk model for older adults with diverse care needs in home care using self-reportable information — the Risk Evaluation for Support: Predictions for Elder-Life in the Community Tool (RESPECT).METHODS:Using a derivation cohort that comprised adults living in Ontario, Canada, aged 50 years and older with at least 1 Resident Assessment Instrument for Home Care (RAI-HC) record between Jan. 1, 2007, and Dec. 31, 2012, we developed a mortality risk model. The primary outcome was mortality 6 months after a RAI-HC assessment. We used proportional hazards regression with robust standard errors to account for clustering by the individual. We validated this algorithm for a second cohort of users of home care who were assessed between Jan. 1 and Dec. 31, 2013. We used Kaplan–Meier survival curves to estimate the observed risk of death at 6 months for assessment of calibration and median survival. We constructed 61 risk groups based on incremental increases in the estimated median survival of about 3 weeks among adults at high risk and 3 months among adults at lower risk.RESULTS:The derivation and validation cohorts included 435 009 and 139 388 adults, respectively. We identified a total of 122 823 deaths within 6 months of a RAI-HC assessment in the derivation cohort. The mean predicted 6-month mortality risk was 10.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] 10.7%–10.8%) and ranged from 1.54% (95% CI 1.53%–1.54%) in the lowest to 98.1% (95% CI 98.1%–98.2%) in the highest risk group. Estimated median survival spanned from 28 days (11 to 84 d at the 25th and 75th percentiles) in the highest risk group to over 8 years (1925 to 3420 d) in the lowest risk group. The algorithm had a c-statistic of 0.753 (95% CI 0.750–0.756) in our validation cohort.INTERPRETATION:The RESPECT mortality risk prediction tool that makes use of readily available information can improve the identification of palliative and end-of-life care needs in a diverse older adult population receiving home care.

Most people in high-income countries die of causes with progressive, predictable trajectories of decline.^1–4 Since 2000, the 3 leading causes of death in Canada — accounting for 55% of all deaths — have been cancer, heart disease and stroke.¹ Other leading causes of death, such as dementia and chronic lower respiratory diseases, also share signs and symptoms of senescence that are common across chronic diseases, including deterioration of physical and cognitive function, as well as an increased need for assistance.Despite the predictable nature of most deaths, many Canadian residents who are at the end of life do not receive adequate home-based supports.⁵ In Ontario — the largest province in Canada with more than 14 million residents and the setting of this study — only 40% of decedents receive formal home care, and less than 20% receive a physician home visit in their last year of life.^6,7 Even among those who had received palliative and end-of-life care, the start of service was often too close to death and failed to have a positive impact on the quality of life in those last months.⁸ The lack of available and accurate prognostic information is a key challenge. There are few existing tools that can be used to inform palliative care planning for the general population of older adults who live in the community and in people without cancer.⁹ Other barriers to accurate prognostic estimates include clinicians’ reluctance or lack of time and existing prognostication tools’ reliance on complex or specialized inputs, such as laboratory data and previous health care use. As a result, many older and frail adults do not receive timely palliative care and do not have an advance care plan.^6,10–13Our primary objective was to develop and validate a model for predicting mortality risk among the general population of community-dwelling adults with and without cancer that spans an actionable period for end-of-life planning (5 yr to imminent death). The variables included in our prognostication model — the Risk Evaluation for Support: Predictions for Elder-life in the Community Tool (RESPECT) — were prespecified to include exposures that could be self-reported by patients and their caregivers, including family members.