基于NLPCA-GSO可持续发展评价——以环渤海区域为例

区域可持续发展水平、发展的持续性和系统的协调性是区域可持续发展定量评价研究的三角构架,而在传统上基于各子系统主成分分析结果直接进行形色各异的加权计算对可持续发展评价而言是有待商榷的。提出了非线性主成分分析和施密特正交化(NLPCA-GSO)相耦合的方法评价区域的可持续发展水平来弥补传统方法的不足,并由此建立区域发展持续性模型和可持续发展系统协调度模型,再以环渤海区域为实证分析其2001—2010年的可持续发展状况。结果表明:基于NLPCA-GSO的可持续发展水平模型可以很好地弥补传统主成分分析及对各子系统结果的综合评价的不足;区域发展持续性模型、协调性模型和区域可持续系统变化的滤波分析形象地揭示区域可持续发展的实质和内涵;实证研究表明环渤海区域在研究时段内可持续发展水平有所上升,而环境子系统持续性的下降是引起区域发展持续性和系统协调度的变化的主要原因。研究结果可丰富区域可持续发展评价的方法学,也可为环渤海区域的可持续发展研究奠定基础。     

Study on the interaction and relation of society,economy and environment based on PCA–VAR model: As a case study of the Bohai Rim region,China

Ongoing success throughout regional development is contingent on maintaining the function, quality and harmony progress in society, economy and environment domains, so exploring the interaction and relation among them should be considerable significant. The model by coupling principal component analysis and vector autoregressive, which relate the aggregated values and dynamic analysis among factors, is proposed to achieve the qualitative and quantitative analysis of interaction and relation among society, economy and environment subsystem, providing a framework to conceptualize the influences among their changes and simulate the future scenarios in the Bohai Rim region. The impulse response analysis and variance decomposition of vector autoregressive method, in particular, permit dynamic interaction between every two systems and display clear decomposition of contribution for each change, respectively. This study results show that: there is a virtuous circle of promotion between economic growth and social progress no matter which is regarded as the endogenous variable during the study period, and yet the negative effect to environmental changes had been produced; what the improvement of social and environmental situation need most might be advancing its own progress; it is also reflected that the entire complicated system walk on the path of unsustainable development due to the evident disequilibrium of three subsystems; and the scenario analysis results obviously tell that in order to attain coordinated development, the annual growth rate of 12% to 16% of overall environmental level should be anticipated along with 8% of social and economic level improve. The study guide future possibilities for relatively more harmonious interconnections among social, economic and the environmental development.     

The sustainable neighborhoods for happiness (SNfH) decision tool: Assessing neighborhood level sustainability and happiness

The relationship between sustainability and happiness is an intriguing and growing research area (Cloutier et al., 2013; Montgomery, 2013; Florida et al., 2013; Leyden et al., 2011). However, a review of primary literature and research indicates a missing gap in neighborhood level assessments of sustainability and happiness. The Sustainable Neighborhoods for Happiness Index (SNHI) was developed using city level data and studies (Cloutier et al., 2014), but was created with the intent of serving as a neighborhood measure. Within this paper, we detail the development of the Sustainable Neighborhoods for Happiness (SNfH) Decision Tool – a neighborhood level assessment tool, derived from the SNHI, to assist in decisions around future strategies for sustainable community development. While several sustainability decision tools exist, there is a need for those that are easily understood and accessible to neighborhood stakeholders (e.g., residents, community leaders, city employees). The SNfH Decision Tool was created with a user-friendly graphical front-end and embedded back-end calculations to inform users. The goal is to help neighborhood stakeholders identify the needs of their community to swiftly take action to alleviate issues and promote a sustainable and happy future.     

自然资源生态伦理观及其可持续发展

首先论述了自然资源的定义和主要特点,并从生态论理道德的角度对人与自然资源的关系进行了讨论,认为当代人承担着为子孙后代留有生存和发展充分空间的道义责任和义务,满足当代人的利益需求和维护子后代的利益需求是同等重要的,文中还指出把生态伦理观纳入人类对自然资源的保护、开发和可持续发展的实践中,有着重要的理论和现实意义,此外,对自然资源可持续发展的途径和主要措施也进行了讨论。     

基于集对分析的京津冀区域可持续发展协调能力评价

区域发展的协调能力是区域可持续发展的重要表征之一。采用社会经济各相关部门的统计数据及资料,构建区域可持续发展评价指标和各级评价标准,利用集对分析中的同异反态势排序的协调发展评价模型实证分析了京津冀地区2000—2010年间的可持续发展协调能力。结果表明:(1)2000—2004年间北京和天津属于不协调发展,2006—2010年逐渐步入弱协调发展,但研究时段内河北省始终为不协调发展。(2)京、津和冀协调能力指数2010年相比2000年分别提高27.86%、8.87%和18.51%,各省域协调发展改善均不明显且步伐不一。(3)对京津冀区域各省域的发展提出了具体建议,但仍要加强各地区的合作和明确各自功能地位尤其重要。研究结果可以为京津冀整体规划的制定及实施提供科学依据和指导,也为环渤海经济圈可持续发展研究奠定了基础。     

生态足迹分析应用于区域可持续发展生态评估的缺陷

可持续发展的生态评估是当前国际生态经济学与可持续发展研究的前沿问题之一,生态足迹从生物生产的角度可以定量评估一个国家或地区发展的生态持续性程度,是近年来发展迅速的一种生物物理量衡量方法。尽管生态足迹分析具有指标指示意义明确、评估结果全球可比与模型方法简便、资料易获取、可操作性强等优点,但在理论方法上仍存在不足之处。综合国内外区域生态足迹分析的最新进展,生态足迹分析应用于区域可持续发展生态评估的理论缺陷主要表现为以下6点：①弱可持续性评价,难以完整反映系统的可持续性状态;②静态模型,缺乏预测功能;③长时间序列生态足迹研究的合理性有待商榷;④全球平均生产力的相对性,导致评估结果的非绝对性;⑤过于强调土地的数量,而忽略土地的质量;⑥假定各类生物生产性土地类型的空间互斥性,忽视兼业性。     

Challenges of non-communicable diseases and sustainable development of China and India

In light of the global Sustainable Development Goals initiated in 2016, the present paper analyses different aspects of addressing Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) such as cardiovascular diseases, cancers, chronic respiratory diseases and diabetes - the major causes of global deaths and disability; discusses the burden of NCDs in China and India - the two most populous countries of the world; reviews their progress and shortfalls in addressing NCDs; and identifies the way forward to tackle successfully the problem of NCDs for sustainable development. The study is based on secondary sources of data available from the World Health Organisation (WHO), World Bank (WB), United Nations and other published sources.Increased public health expenditure, measured as a proportion of the total health expenditure while implementing Universal Health Coverage, has produced repercussive positive advantages in China. Both China and India have implemented initiatives towards the prevention and control of NCDs in light of WHO Global targets. However, the progress monitoring indicators reveal that, on many fronts, either the commitments are partially achieved, or not yet achieved. This needs increased support to the public sector healthcare system, with a parallel policy and legislation driven approach.     

基于区域生态学我国流域可持续发展面临的问题及应对策略

流域是最为典型的生态区域,也是我国生态文明建设和山水林田湖草生命共同体的重要载体,流域可持续发展对国家经济社会发展和生态安全都具有十分重要的作用。日趋紧张的人地关系,对流域的生态文明建设和可持续发展提出新的挑战。引入区域生态学的理论及方法,在总结区域生态学的研究对象、研究内容、研究目标和研究尺度基础上,剖析了妨碍我国流域可持续发展的主要区域生态问题,并从流域生态格局-过程-功能协调发展、实现流域间地-地耦合、构建与生态承载力相适宜的人居环境和产业结构、建立生态补偿机制等四个方面提出了基于区域生态学理论和方法的应对策略,以引导我国新时期流域的可持续发展。     

Use and influence of composite indicators for sustainable development at the EU-level

Considering the on-going strive towards new, alternative indicators to measure our societal development pathways, and the fact that policy indicators remain largely enigmatic with regard to their patterns of embeddedness in institutional decision-making processes, it appears necessary to work towards reducing our lack of understanding of their interactions with policy-making. In the present paper, we focus on exploring the significance of composite indicators for policy making in the particular policy environment of the EU-institutions. Our research is underpinned by the conviction that such indicators are not systematically used directly, but have an indirect influence on policy making that needs to be better understood. Our analytical framework – in order to analyse the ways in which composite indicators enter policy processes – is characterised by the distinction between the ‘use’ and the ‘influence’ of indicators on the one hand, and on the other hand between 3 types of factors: indicator factors, policy factors and user factors. Our empirical results show that while most of the academic attention and political debate around indicators has tended to focus on ‘indicator factors’, such quality attributes actually mattered relatively little in our setting as determinants of indicator influence. This rejects the idea that the robustness of evidence would lie exclusively in its technical quality and in the independence of its producer, and instead calls attention to the processes of evidence-construction. Simultaneously, ‘user factors’ (beliefs and representations of policy actors) and ‘policy factors’ (institutional context) were crucial as explanatory factors of the policy mechanics we identified.     

我国城市可持续发展能力评估指标的元数据分析与管理

在我国大力推动城市可持续发展,推进国家可持续发展实验区建设的同时,采用何种评估方法和数据开展城市可持续发展能力评估是需要重点解决的问题。近年来兴起的元数据理论与技术在解决评估数据质量控制方面被视为是一种行之有效的方法。针对我国现阶段使用的一些城市可持续发展能力评估指标体系的特点,通过深入剖析每一个指标数据的来源、获取手段、适用方法等特征,提出从软件工程学思路研发城市可持续发展能力评估元数据管理系统的具体方法,帮助可持续发展实验区高效获取和管理评估所需数据信息;以"十二五"科技支撑计划项目"城市可持续发展能力评估及信息管理关键技术研究与示范"中所建立的元数据规范,对其所包含的"数据发布日期"、"数据发布形式"、"空间范围"、"时间范围(起始时间、结束时间)"、"统计频率"、"数据安全限制分级"、"数据志说明"、"在线资源链接地址"和"数据统计单位信息(单位名称、联络人、联系电话、单位地址、邮件地址)"共14项为评估数据的关键元数据项,以此追踪对标的评估数据。并通过量化数据质量评分法针对数据质量在运用元数据追踪法前后的评价结果对比发现,被评估指标的数据质量在获得元数据支持时,其数据可靠性、可比性和可持续性方面的评价分值都获得了十分显著的改善。研究认为采用元数据理论在控制和保障城市可持续发展能力评估数据质量方面具有优势作用,开发有针对性的城市可持续发展能力评估元数据管理系统能够有效提高评估数据的综合评价结果。     

The value of flagship and umbrella species for restoration and sustainable development: Bale monkeys and bamboo forest in Ethiopia

Forest loss and degradation are the most significant threats to terrestrial biodiversity in the tropics. Promoting flagship or umbrella species is a strategy that can be used to conserve intact forests and restore degraded ecosystems, conserve biodiversity, and achieve sustainable development goals. The Bale monkey (Chlorocebus djamdjamensis) is an arboreal, forest-dwelling, threatened primate restricted to a small range in the southern Ethiopian Highlands, which relies mostly on a single species of bamboo (Arundinaria alpina) and prefers bamboo forest habitat. Most of the Bale monkey’s range lies outside protected areas and most of its historical bamboo forest habitat is degraded or destroyed. The conservation of Bale monkeys and bamboo is highly inter-dependent; however, the value of using the Bale monkey as a flagship or umbrella species for forest restoration has not been evaluated. Here we use geographic range overlap and geospatial modeling to evaluate Bale monkeys as a flagship and/or umbrella species. We also assess if conservation intervention on behalf of Bale monkeys can help restore bamboo forest, while simultaneously providing a wide range of socioeconomic and environmental benefits. We found that Bale monkeys share their range with 52 endemic and/or threatened vertebrate species and at least 9 endemic and/or threatened plant species. Our results show that Bale monkeys meet both the flagship and umbrella species criteria to restore bamboo forest and conserve threatened co-occurring species. Since bamboo is fast-growing and can be harvested every year, we suggest that a science-based sustainable harvest and management regime for bamboo would help to improve the livelihood of both the local community and Ethiopians in general without significantly affecting the long-term survival of Bale monkeys and regional biodiversity. Further, a conservation management strategy protecting and restoring bamboo forest has the potential to achieve at least six of the 17 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.     

Study on the protection and sustainable development of scenic resources-a case study of Qingxiushan scenic spot in Nanning city

The construction of urban green space has become an important indicator to measure the progress of urban civilization and sustainable development. It is an effective measure to strengthen the construction of urban green space and to protect and build urban ecological environments. The Qingxiushan scenic spot is not only an important part of the urban green space system, but also an important part of the urban ecosystem, which has significant ecological and environmental benefits. In the planning and construction of the Qingxiushan scenic spot in Nanning city, the rare and precious plant species in the south subtropical zone are gathered together to become an important base for the migration and protection of plants in different places, forming a large-area and multi-plant symbiotic plant community, providing a good habitat for animals, realizing the harmonious coexistence of plants and other plants, plants and animals, people and nature, and, based on the protection of the ecological environment, plants and businesses. The ecological, social, and economic benefits of the Qingxiushan scenic spot are fully brought into play.     

Integrating hardware, software and mindware for sustainable ecosystem development: Principles and methods of ecological engineering in China

Grounded in human ecological philosophy, ecological engineering in China seeks to find an alternative way to realize sustainable development at ecosystem level through total metabolism of resources, systematic coupling of technologies and cultivation of people's behavior. Here the key is integration of ‘hardware’, ‘software’ and ‘mindware’. Eight design principles of ecological engineering based on eco-cybernetics are discussed, which fall into three categories: competition, symbiosis and self-reliance. The fundamental tasks of ecological engineering are to develop a sustainable ecosystem through the integrative planning of its structure, function and processes by encouraging totally functioning technology, systematically responsible institutions and ecologically vivid culture. A campaign of ecological engineering development in China is introduced, including 29 national comprehensive experimental communities for sustainable development, 51 pilot studies of eco-county development, and 100 ecological demonstration districts. Some fruitful theoretical and applied results have been gained and the case of Dafeng eco-county development is introduced.     

干旱区生态重建与经济可持续发展研究进展

从对20世纪90年代以来国际上干旱区生态系统重建与经济可持续发展理论、方法、技术、成功经验、政策与管理措施等的分析中得出如下进展;世界各国都在普遍推行国民经济的生态化与经济社会活动的生态化,普遍把生态重建转变成一种政府行为;采用了一系列生态重建与经济可持续发展研究的新方法;初步建立起生态重建与经澌刘可持续发展的指标体系;开始加强生态预报,建立生态安全监控预警系统,开始研究国家生态安全地理定位,并制定国家外部生态安全战略;涌现出了一系列生态重建与经济可持续发展的实用技术,这些进展将对我国西北干旱区生态重建与经济可持续发展提供有益的借鉴。     

Prospective and development of butanol as an advanced biofuel

Butanol has been acknowledged as an advanced biofuel, but its production through acetone–butanol–ethanol (ABE) fermentation by clostridia is still not economically competitive, due to low butanol yield and titer. In this article, update progress in butanol production is reviewed. Low price and sustainable feedstocks such as lignocellulosic residues and dedicated energy crops are needed for butanol production at large scale to save feedstock cost, but processes are more complicated, compared to those established for ABE fermentation from sugar- and starch-based feedstocks. While rational designs targeting individual genes, enzymes or pathways are effective for improving butanol yield, global and systems strategies are more reasonable for engineering strains with stress tolerance controlled by multigenes. Compared to solvent-producing clostridia, engineering heterologous species such as Escherichia coli and Saccharomyces cerevisiae with butanol pathway might be a solution for eliminating the formation of major byproducts acetone and ethanol so that butanol yield can be improved significantly. Although batch fermentation has been practiced for butanol production in industry, continuous operation is more productive for large scale production of butanol as a biofuel, but a single chemostat bioreactor cannot achieve this goal for the biphasic ABE fermentation, and tanks-in-series systems should be optimized for alternative feedstocks and new strains. Moreover, energy saving is limited for the distillation system, even total solvents in the fermentation broth are increased significantly, since solvents are distilled to ~ 40% by the beer stripper, and more than 95% water is removed with the stillage without phase change, even with conventional distillation systems, needless to say that advanced chemical engineering technologies can distil solvents up to ~ 90% with the beer stripper, and the multistage pressure columns can well balance energy consumption for solvent fraction. Indeed, an increase in butanol titer with ABE fermentation can significantly save energy consumption for medium sterilization and stillage treatment, since concentrated medium can be used, and consequently total mass flow with production systems can be reduced. As for various in situ butanol removal technologies, their energy efficiency, capital investment and contamination risk to the fermentation process need to be evaluated carefully.     

基于扩展耗模型的可持续发展水平区域空间差异——以中国31个省市为数据源

将区域作为一个以人类生产和消费为中心的社会-经济-自然复合生态系统,构建了一种基于生物物理视角的生态热力学方法,从整体角度对区域的可持续发展水平进行定量评价。该方法囊括了维持复合生态系统运转过程中的自然资源投入、人力资源投入和环境污染损害成本投入等三种要素,完善了可持续发展评价以及绿色GDP核算中人力资源投入和环境成本的价值体现。然后以我国为例,核算了我国31个省市2006—2015年间可持续发展水平的时间动态,并以各省为边界,计算了2015年的区域可持续发展水平差异。计算结果显示:(1)十年间,我国整体上的可持续发展水平在逐步提高,能反映出我国生产率水平的提高和资源利用效率的提高;(2)从要素投入看,自然资源投入仍然占主要,但比例在逐渐降低。环境成本投入比例呈逐步降低趋势,说明环境保护取得了成效。另外,在2010年后,人力资源投入比例增加很快,反映了我国经济发展中劳动力成本上升明显。(3)各省市的计算结果差异较大,在不考虑区域间进出口的情况下,从GDP产出角度,北京的可持续发展水平最高,西藏最低。通过将本文的评价结果与绿色发展指数的评价结果进行比较,发现具有较好的一致性。建立的方法框架是对能值分析方法的扩展和完善,在今后的研究中,还需要继续对该方法框架中没有考虑全面的因素加以考虑,以便于更全面客观地反映区域的可持续发展水平。     

基于主成分分析的大渡河中游干暖河谷草地土壤质量评价

草地在大渡河干暖河谷植被恢复及植物群落演替中具有重要作用,而植被恢复的关键在于土壤质量。将大渡河干暖河谷泸定至汉源段,依据坡向划分为8个方位（北、东北、东、东南、南、西南、西、西北）,分析了不同坡向和植被盖度草地的土壤理化性质,采用主成分分析法（Principal component analysis,PCA）对河谷区草地土壤质量进行了评价。结果表明：（1）影响河谷草地土壤质量的最小数据集（Minimum data set,MDS）指标包括非毛管孔隙度、土壤容重、有机质和碳氮比;（2）河谷从东北坡过渡到西南坡土壤质量逐渐降低,与南坡热而干旱的微气候使土壤矿化作用剧烈,而北坡适宜的光热和水热条件更有利于土壤中钾和磷的释放有关;（3）植被盖度与土壤质量呈正相关关系,随着草地植被盖度减少土壤质量逐渐降低。高植被盖度（>70%）土壤质量主要受非毛管空隙度影响,而低高盖度草地（<30%）主要受土壤容重影响;（4）河谷区草地土壤质量指数中间值分布较多,土壤肥力属于2-4级中等水平。大渡河干暖河谷区草地土壤质量较好,潜在肥力水平较高,有利于植物生长和植物群落正向演替,是植被人工恢复的重点区域。     

滤减UV-B辐射对烟叶腺毛发育和密度动态变化的影响

以烟草品种"K326"为材料,盆栽种植于自然环境条件下(CK)和覆盖不同厚度透明薄膜,分别滤减25%(T1)、50%(T2)和65%(T3)UV-B辐射的大棚中,在"K326"开花期至工艺成熟后期的4个生育期,通过扫描电镜观察了各处理烟叶腺毛形态和密度动态变化特征,并首次报道了"K326"中存在分枝腺毛。结果表明:上表皮腺毛在开花期、生理成熟期和工艺成熟前期对UV-B辐射敏感,下表皮则在开花期和工艺成熟后期对UV-B辐射敏感;T3处理腺毛密度低且延缓腺毛的发育,T1和T2处理腺毛密度较高,在工艺成熟期出现二次发育现象;各处理烟叶腺毛以长柄腺毛为主,CK、T1、T2下表皮腺毛总密度大于上表皮,而T3上、下表皮差异不大;滤减UV-B辐射有利于烟叶下表皮长柄腺毛发育,而引起腺毛二次发育的腺毛类型依处理和时期而异;适当较高强度的UV-B辐射对烟叶腺毛发育有促进作用,在研究地减弱25%～50%的UV-B辐射强度对烟叶腺毛发育较为合适。     

Examination through a principal component analysis of the phosphorus exchanges between sediments and water in trophically different reservoirs

Phosphorus exchange at the sediment-water interface coupled with several parameters were assessed in several reservoirs with geologically different catchment basins and different trophic status in Morocco and France.The results showed that these exchanges were regulated by a combination of factors: physical chemical variability of the environment, the geological composition of catchment basins and the trophic status of the lake.In the hypereutrophic Villerest, iron-bound phosphorus is the major form of phosphorus trapped by the sediment whereas, in Moroccan reservoirs, calcium-bound phosphorus prevailed.We suggest that a drastic control of phosphorus inputs into the waters must be done through a large program of dephosphatization of tributaries to avoid Microcystis aeruginosa bloom formation in Villerest (Aleya et al., 1993) and calcium-bound phosphorus dissociation in Moroccan reservoirs with upward release of bioavailable phosphorus.

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Résumé Les échanges de phosphore au niveau de l'interface eau-sédiment couplés á la distribution temporelle de divers éléments chimiques et biologiques ont été étudiés dans divers réservoirs de niveaux trophiques différents, au Maroc et en France.Nos résultats mettent clairement en évidence une influence directe de l'environnement physico-chimique, de la nature géologique des bassins versants et de l'état trophique du lac sur la dynamique du phosphore au sein de cette interface.De plus, il apparait que dans le lac hypereutrophe de Villerest (Roanne, France), le phosphore est majoritairement complexé au fer alors que dans les retenues marocaines, ce sont les complexes phosphore-calcium qui prédominent.Nous préconisons un contrôle drastique des apports en phosphore á travers l'installation et la multiplication d'unités de déphosphatation afin d'éviter d'une part, la prolifération massive de la Cyanobactérie Microcystis aeruginosa á Villetest (Aleya et al., 1994) et d'autre part la dissociation des complexes phhosphore-calcium au sein des retenues marocaines avec libération de phosphore biodisponible.

     

中国1999年生态足迹计算与发展能力分析

可持续发展的定量评估是可持续发展研究的关键领域,其核心是确定人类的生存是否处于生态系统的承载力范围之内．新近提出和发展起来的生态足迹指标是一种测算人类对自然利用程度的新的综合指标,该方法通过将区域的资源和能源消费转化为提供这种物质流所必需的各种生物生产土地的面积(生态足迹),并同区域能提供的生物生产土地面积(生态承载力)进行比较,能定量判断一个区域的发展是否处于生态承载力的范围内．以中国和部分省(区市）1999年的统计数据为基础,对中国和部分省(区市)1999年的生态足迹计算结果表明,1999年中国的人均生态足迹为1．326hm^2,而人均生态承载力为0．681hm^2,人均生态赤字为0、645hm^2;分省的计算结果也表明大部分省(区市)的生态足迹超过了当地的生态承载力．生态赤字的存在表明,区域的经济社会发展处于一种不可持续的发展状态．同时,将生态足迹计算中得到的不同土地类型面积作为测算生态经济系统多样性的指标,测算了中国及部分省(区市)1999年生态足迹的多样性,并采用Ulanowicz的发展能力公式分析了各省的发展能力．发展能力是一个较好的预测产出的指标,增加多样性是增加发展能力的有效途径、另外,还分析了生态足迹的多样性与资源利用效益的关系,讨论了生态足迹及其多样性的政策含义．