黄河流域城市生态韧性时空演变及其影响因素

城市作为最复杂的社会生态系统,在经历经济快速积累、城镇化加快推进的同时,面临着资源短缺、环境污染、生物多样性锐减等生态环境挑战,增强城市生态韧性对城市可持续发展至关重要。从韧性的内涵角度评估城市生态韧性水平,探究城市防范内外生态风险能力的时空特征,剖析城市生态韧性差异的影响机制,对实施城市生态文明建设与风险防控具有指导意义。基于"演化韧性"视角从"抵抗-响应-转型"三个能力构建城市生态韧性指标体系,以黄河流域七大城市群59个地级市2011-2020年面板数据为例,运用熵权-逼近理想解排序法(熵权-TOPSIS法)、传统和空间马尔可夫链,在对黄河流域城市生态韧性进行定量测算的基础上,分析其时空特征。最后利用面板分位数回归深入探索黄河流域城市生态韧性影响因素的分段效应,提高对城市生态韧性影响机制的认识。结果表明:(1)2011-2020年,城市生态韧性均值在(0.092,0.125)范围内,呈现缓慢增长态势;离散程度呈倒"U"型变化特征趋势;空间上,城市生态韧性表现为"下游强、上中游弱",城市群内部以省会城市为核心向外围地级市递减,"中心-外围"的分布格局明显。(2)城市生态韧性主要在相邻等级之间进行递次转移,仍未实现跨等级转移,具有"路径依赖"和"自身锁定"特征;地理空间背景在城市生态韧性动态演变过程中发挥着重要作用,表现为"强强联合、低低临近"的集聚效应。(3)影响因素方面,经济发展水平、科技创新对城市生态韧性具有显著促进作用;产业结构对城市生态韧性表现为显著抑制作用,人口密度和环境规制对城市生态韧性不同分位点的影响作用存在显著的异质性。研究结果可为黄河流域全面推进生态保护与建设"韧性城市"提供一定的科学参考和理论依据。     

韧性科学的回顾与展望:从生态理论到城市实践

城市韧性的概念在生态与环境领域正在兴起,如何将城市的结构复杂性和功能多样性与自然、经济和社会要科学地耦合尤为重要。实践方面,城市韧性在国际组织、政府机构和私人基金会等计划的支持下得到世界各地城市的日益重视。对此,回顾了韧性在生态系统科学中的概念起源及其在工程技术与社会学科的应用发展;整合了城市系统的科学知识,以进一步阐述城市韧性的概念及理论发展;举例了目前联合国、洛克菲勒基金会和跨国企业所构建的全球合作网络中韧性城市的实践。基于城市韧性理论的回顾和韧性城市实践,结合城市系统在生态、经济和社会维度的差异性,就我国城市以韧性为导向的转型发展过程中存在的机遇、挑战及解决途径提出了参考建议。     

长三角城市群城市洪涝韧性与生态系统服务的耦合协调关系

厘清城市洪涝韧性与生态系统服务之间耦合协调关系,可为城市防洪减灾和生态文明建设提供重要决策参考。综合运用基于麻雀算法的投影寻踪模型、InVEST模型和耦合协调度模型,在分析2000-2020年长三角城市群的城市洪涝韧性与水源涵养、水质净化、土壤保持和气候调节四种生态系统服务时空格局基础上,尝试探索两者耦合协调关系及其时空演变特征。研究发现:(1)长三角城市群的城市洪涝韧性水平呈现"N"型增加趋势,并呈现"上海>江苏>浙江>安徽"的空间格局,表明经济水平越高的城市展现出更强的洪涝韧性,经济是影响城市洪涝韧性波动的主要因素,而自然韧性成为城市洪涝韧性提升的关键短板;(2)生态系统服务存在显著的空间异质性,高植被覆盖的南部地区提供了更高的生态系统服务,从时间维度看其空间分布是稳定的,水源涵养和水质净化服务总体呈向好趋势,土壤保持服务整体呈现倒"N"型增加,气候调节服务呈现微弱的下降趋势;(3)城市洪涝韧性与生态系统服务的耦合协调度在研究期内较为稳定,且与生态系统服务的时空变化趋于一致,呈现"南高北低、由西南向东北逐渐减弱"的趋势,生态系统服务较高的城市,表现出更好的耦合协调性,且随着生态系统服务的增加而改善。因此,长三角城市群有必要从提高生态系统服务功能的角度出发,因地制宜、分类施策,促进城市洪涝韧性与生态系统服务的协调发展。     

Assessment of sustainable development in the EU 27 using aggregated SD index

In the European Union the sustainable development is a fundamental and overarchingobjective enshrined in the Treaty and measuring progress towards sustainable development is an integral part of the EU Sustainable Development Strategy. Eurostat produce a monitoring report every two years based on the EU set of sustainable development indicators (SDIs). The main objective of this paper is to create an aggregated index of the sustainable development from EU set of SDIs for each 27 EU country based on the PCA. The headline indicator economic growth was not involved because its increase is not expressly followed by positive change in other SDIs from social, economic and environmental fields. The aggregated SD index enables to get an overall picture about the position of each of the 27 EU countries and its development in terms of the sustainability over time as assumed in the EU Sustainable Development Strategy. Sweden, Denmark, Netherland, and Great Britain have repeatedly reached the highest value of aggregated SD index. The highest positive change in the aggregated SD index has occurred in countries with the lowest value of aggregated SD index. Moreover, we put this new aggregated index in relation with economic growth and found that there is a negative correlation between aggregated SD index and the economic growth for most of the 27 EU countries.     

尼泊尔社会经济-生态复合系统恢复力评价及影响因素辨识

“一带一路”沿线部分国家处于生态环境脆弱、社会经济落后状态,开展社会经济-生态复合系统恢复力时空特征评估及关键要素识,对于实现“一带一路”倡议“走出去”战略和绿色丝路建设至关重要。基于社会发展、经济水平、基础设施建设、生态环境、自然灾害风险5个一级指标24个二级指标构建了社会经济-生态复合系统恢复力评价指标体系,利用主成分分析法和结构方程模型评价了2000—2015年尼泊尔县域尺度社会经济-生态复合系统恢复力并分析了其时空分异特征,厘清了影响社会经济-生态复合系统恢复力的关键因素及其影响机制。结果表明：(1)尼泊尔社会经济-生态复合系统恢复力在县域尺度上主要集中在中低和中等恢复力水平,而中高恢复力呈由南向北逐渐降低态势,南部地区以及位于中部发展区的首都加德满都河谷地区恢复力水平相对较高;(2)2000—2015年尼泊尔社会经济-生态复合系统恢复力在不同阶段呈现波动变化状态,2005年恢复力最优,2010和2015年部分区域恢复力降低明显,系统恢复力区域间差异逐步增大;(3)社会发展、经济水平、基础设施、建设生态环境和自然灾害风险对系统恢复力提升的总效应分别为0.99,0.07,0.11...     

沙滩-社区系统健康韧性评价——以深圳市大鹏半岛为例

沙滩既是海岸带旅游活动热点区,也是应对陆海交互影响以及人为气候变化的最前沿。如何将韧性和健康理念融入到海岸带发展建设规划,建立自免疫、自适应、自修复的区域健康韧性发展机制已成为亟待解决的问题。定位于深圳大鹏半岛的沙滩-社区系统,从社会-生态系统的应对力和适应力出发,构建健康韧性评估框架。结果显示：（1）大鹏沙滩-社区复合系统中,社会子系统健康韧性水平（0.38±0.16,均值±标准差）低于生态子系统（0.65±0.10）;（2）依据沙滩管理分类,I类沙滩的社会（0.53±0.16）、生态子系统（0.67±0.08）健康韧性均最高,沙滩浴场类复合系统的健康韧性大于围合管理类和封闭管理类,而开放管理类沙滩耦合系统的健康韧性在社会、生态子系统间差异明显,其生态子系统得分最低而社会子系统得分偏高;（3）沙滩-社区复合系统健康韧性差异的主控因子包括紧急避难场所覆盖率（19.4%,贡献度）、沙滩整洁度（16.5%）、公共卫生设施覆盖率（16.1%）,提升此类健康指标是提升沙滩-社区系统健康韧性的关键。本研究揭示了大鹏半岛的沙滩-社区系统存在自然资源分散、健康基础设施服务供给质量差异显著等问题,为大鹏半岛可持续发展和沙滩生态产品价值实现提供了科学评估基础。     

城市遥感生态指数的创建及其应用

城市生态与人类生活息息相关,快速、准确、客观地了解城市生态状况已成为生态领域的一个研究重点。基于遥感技术,提出一个完全基于遥感技术,以自然因子为主的遥感生态指数（RSEI）来对城市的生态状况进行快速监测与评价。该指数利用主成分分析技术集成了植被指数、湿度分量、地表温度和建筑指数等4个评价指标,它们分别代表了绿度、湿度、热度和干度等4大生态要素。通过在福州主城区的应用表明,RSEI指数可以定量地评价和对比城市的生态质量,方便地进行时空动态变化分析。由于所选的指标完全基于遥感信息,容易获得,且计算过程无需人工干预,因此结果客观可靠、可比性强。     

典型资源型城市生态承载力评价——以唐山市为例

资源型城市生态承载力评价研究的开展对促进资源型城市自然-经济-社会复合生态系统健康可持续发展具有指导意义。以唐山市作为案例城市,基于资源型城市独特的生态系统特点,从生态弹性力、承载媒体的支撑力、承载对象的压力三方面提出对生态承载力进行量化的研究方法,构建了较完整的生态承载力综合评价指标体系,利用主客观相结合的赋权方法,对唐山市生态承载力状况进行评价,探讨了2001—2010年10年间唐山市生态承载力变化趋势。结果表明:唐山市在研究时段内,生态弹性力指数波动强烈,表明生态系统的稳定性较差;承载媒体的支撑力指数逐渐增大,指数由0.111上升至0.898,显示系统的承载指数越来越高;承载对象的压力变化较为复杂,呈现先降后升,近几年又略有下降的趋势;系统的生态承载力整体上呈现波动性上升趋势,综合指数由0.345上升至0.720,说明唐山市生态系统的承载能力不断提高,但资源依赖型发展模式带来的资源短缺、环境污染和生态破坏等问题仍是制约生态承载力进一步提高的主要因素。研究成果客观地反映了唐山市生态承载力状况,对于唐山市未来的发展提出了合理的对策和建议,可为其他地区生态承载力研究提供一定借鉴。     

基于DPSIR模型的国家大型煤电基地生态效应评估指标体系

国家大型煤电基地的规划建设是《中国国民经济和社会发展"十二五"规划纲要》中的重要内容,也是我国未来能源发展战略的重要举措。随着社会经济的不断发展,对人类活动生态效应的评估也越来越受到关注,对国家大型煤电基地生态效应的评估是确保煤电基地区域可持续发展的重要步骤。我国煤电基地多分布在北部干旱半干旱的生态脆弱区,区域生态环境直接影响到我国京津唐、东北城市群、华北东北两个主要粮食基地的生态安全,乃至直接影响到国家生态安全。因此,对国家大型煤电基地生态效应进行科学评估至关重要。基于DPSIR(驱动力Driving force—压力Pressure—状态State—影响Impact—响应Response)概念模型,以内蒙古锡林郭勒盟煤电基地为主要研究区域,从社会经济、资源能源、生态环境三个相关系统中梳理出43个评估指标,构建了国家大型煤电基地生态效应评估指标体系,以期科学评估国家大型煤电基地建设运营过程中的生态效应。     

Assessment of the resilience of socio-ecological production landscapes and seascapes: A case study from Lefke Region of North Cyprus

The purpose of this study is to assess the resilience of socio-ecological production landscapes and seascapes (SEPLS) of Lefke Region in North Cyprus in the face of disturbance factors (e.g. drought, urbanization and land abandonment) by adopting a set of indicators. The main objectives of the study include measurement of the respective resilience of the ecological, social and agricultural systems of the SEPLS by using relevant indicators. The method of the study consists of three parts: (i) conceptualization of the resilience of the SEPLS of Lefke Region to address the key systems (ecosystem, agricultural and social), their hierarchical structures, components and interrelations; (ii) development of a set of suitable resilience assessment indicators for these systems; (iii) for the development of resilience assessment indicators a participatory approach was designated to collect the relevant data. Accordingly, a multiple-choice questionnaire – consisting of 5 choices – was prepared and relevant data were collected from December 2015 to March 2016 in 12 villages through personal interviews with 106 respondents.The respondents have expressed their preferences by selecting the most suitable choice in 5 which were ordered from the lowest to the highest degree of resilience (1–5 point scale). The results of the evaluation revealed that the average values (importance) of the ecological, agricultural and social resilience are respectively 2,87 (low), 3,44 (moderate) and 2,53 (low) out of maximum 5-points. The overall resilience of the SEPLS was estimated to be low with a 2,94 magnitude. Finally, some conclusions (e.g. integrated landscape management) for strengthening the resilience of the SEPLS in Lefke Region in terms of biodiversity conservation, agricultural production and sustainable livelihood development were drawn based on the major findings of the study.It is expected that the findings and conclusions of this study can draw attention of policy makers and natural resource managers on building and strengthening the resilience of the SEPLS of Lefke Region in terms of biodiversity conservation, sustainable agricultural production and livelihood development.     

中国城市生态与经济社会协同性评估

为认识城市经济社会和生态的协同特征,本研究基于城市人均绿地面积、人均GDP和人均期望寿命等构建城市生态与经济社会功能协同性指标评价体系,建立城市生态与经济社会协同性指数评价方法。通过比较中国35个典型城市的协同性指数与功能综合得分,分析了中国城市协同性特征,并按照城市规模、行政区类型分析城市协同性差异和城市功能综合得分差异,对协同水平进行分类。结果表明: 2016年,中国35个城市生态与经济社会平均协同性指数为28.79,协同性最强城市的协同性指数为3.83,最弱的城市为63.04,表明中国城市协同性不高且城市间差异较大。协同性指数、城市经济功能、社会功能与城市人口规模、经济规模呈显著正相关。不同人口规模、经济规模、不同行政职能城市之间协同性指数差异具有显著性。中国城市化总体仍处于功能失衡的发展阶段,城市发展有利于各城市功能性提高但并未有效提升协同性,生态功能的高低显著影响城市协同性,城市生态功能不高是当前中国城市协同性高低的主要制约因素。     

生态治理内陆河流域社区恢复力演变特征及影响因素——以石羊河流域为例

探究生态治理背景下内陆河流域社区恢复力演变规律及其影响因素,对于流域生态保护与社会经济高质量发展具有重要意义。选取石羊河流域为典型研究区,在识别社区恢复力演变的基础上,探究社区恢复力内部影响因素及外部生态治理影响路径,进而揭示社区恢复力影响机制。结果表明：(1)生态治理背景下石羊河流域社区恢复力迅速增长且时空异质性明显,其中,生态维度空间格局集聚度高且优势性强,但增长缓慢,经济及社会维度时空异质性大,且增长迅速;(2)石羊河流域社区恢复力内部影响因素中,经济维度具有主导影响,社会维度影响减弱,而生态维度影响最小且变化趋势不大;(3)外部生态治理影响中,退耕还林及关井压田在三个时期对社区恢复力均起到制约作用,农业技术培训早期制约社区恢复力提升,后期制约作用消失,多重生态治理要素组合影响在2000年表现为农业结构调整及资源调控路径,2010年表现为农业结构调整路径、生活水资源主导调控路径、生态水资源主导调控路径,2020年表现为农业结构调整及资源配置路径、农业结构调整及技术支持路径、生产水资源主导配置路径。总体来说,研究为社区恢复力内外部影响因素综合研究提供了思路,也为内陆河流域未来乡村社...     

Dynamic sustainability assessment of countries at the macro level: A principal component analysis

Monitoring progress toward sustainable development requires the identification of operational indicators that provide manageable units of information on institutional, environmental, economic and social dimensions. This paper is an attempt to develop macro sustainability indicators of selected countries in order to track sustainability in a dynamic manner. Therefore, as a first step, sustainability pillar variables for 131 countries were defined and derived for the period 2000–2007. Three different methods, i.e., standardization, min–max and cyclical techniques, were used to normalize data and finally a principal component analysis (PCA) was applied for weighting selected variables. In the last step, countries were ranked based on their principal components (PCs) and spatially aggregated sustainability was tracked in four dimensions. The paper finds that while progress was observed for the institutional, economic and social dimensions, the environmental conditions deteriorated successively over the studied period. It is concluded that when institutional, environmental and economic pillars are strongly correlated, economic development cannot solely explain environmental deterioration.     

城市河流健康评价指标体系构建及其应用

健康的城市河流既能够维持其生态系统的自然运转,又能够满足城市社会经济的正常需求,还能够为人类提供休闲娱乐的场所。基于城市河流健康的内涵,构建出包含自然生态、社会经济和景观环境等3个方面24个指标的城市河流健康评价指标体系。以漓江市区段为例,通过建立基于层次分析法的模糊综合评价模型对其进行健康评价。结果表明:漓江市区段复合生态系统的评价结果为(0.2193,0.3004,0.3261,0.1137,0.0405),处于中健康状态;其自然生态子系统、社会经济子系统和景观环境子系统的健康状态分别为中、优和良;水量、防洪能力、鱼类多样性指数和底栖动物多样性是漓江市区段健康的主要影响因素。该评价指标体系可为其它城市河流的健康评价提供参考。     

External shocks,agent interactions,and endogenous feedbacks — Investigating system resilience with a stylized land use model

Dynamics of coupled Social-Ecological Systems (SES) result from the interplay of society and ecology. To assess SES resilience, we constructed an Agent-Based Model (ABM) of a land use system as a stereotypical example of SES and investigated how resilience of the represented system is affected by both external disturbances and internal dynamics. The model explicitly considered different aspects of resilience in a framework derived from literature, which includes “resilience to”, “resilience of”, “resilience at”, “resilience due to”, and “indicators of resilience”. External disturbances were implemented as shocks in crop yields. Internal dynamics comprised of two types of social interaction between agents (learning and cooperation), an ecological feedback of soil depletion and an economic feedback of agglomeration benefits. We systematically varied these mechanisms and measured indicators that reflected spatial, social, and economic resilience. Results showed that (1) internal mechanisms increased the ability of the system to recover from external shocks, (2) feedbacks resulted in different regimes of crop cultivation, each with a distinctive set of functions, and (3) resilience is not a generic system property, but strongly depends on what system function is considered. We recommend future studies to include internal dynamics, especially feedbacks, and to systematically assess them across different aspects of resilience.     

Marine reserves help coastal ecosystems cope with extreme weather

Natural ecosystems have experienced widespread degradation due to human activities. Consequently, enhancing resilience has become a primary objective for conservation. Nature reserves are a favored management tool, but we need clearer empirical tests of whether they can impart resilience. Catastrophic flooding in early 2011 impacted coastal ecosystems across eastern Australia. We demonstrate that marine reserves enhanced the capacity of coral reefs to withstand flood impacts. Reserve reefs resisted the impact of perturbation, whilst fished reefs did not. Changes on fished reefs were correlated with the magnitude of flood impact, whereas variation on reserve reefs was related to ecological variables. Herbivory and coral recruitment are critical ecological processes that underpin reef resilience, and were greater in reserves and further enhanced on reserve reefs near mangroves. The capacity of reserves to mitigate external disturbances and promote ecological resilience will be critical to resisting an increased frequency of climate‐related disturbance.     

长江经济带生态安全测度研究

长江经济带城镇化发展迅速,但随之出现的诸多生态安全问题已严重制约其高质量发展。为综合特征指数法与指标体系法优势,并诠释社会经济与生态共生发展这一生态安全新内涵,在分析城镇化发展与自然生态相互作用基础上,选取2006年至2017年长江经济带沿线11个省市数据为研究样本,运用"驱动-压力-状态-影响-响应（DPSIR）"模型、R聚类法及变异系数法确定生态安全指标及其权重,再利用城镇化-自然生态Lotka-Volterra共生模型获得具备生态经济内涵的受力指数、综合特征指数,实现指标与指数的耦合,更进一步推导出生态安全预警依据。最后进行实证测度,并根据测度结果进行指标回溯分析生态安全问题成因,完成逆向解耦。研究结果表明：（1）2006-2017年长江经济带城镇化系统发展迅猛,尤其是城镇化驱动力得到强化,但长江经济带生态环境状况改善幅度并不明显且长期处于城镇化高速发展而生态环境遭受损害的偏害发展模式;（2）长江经济带11个省市生态安全格局差异显著,呈现"东西较高,中间偏低"格局;（3）通过指标回溯发现,产业结构发展不均衡、城镇人口过度扩张、城镇化子系统对生态环境空间的侵占等因素是造成长江经济带生态安全问题的重要原因。     

长三角2000-2018年陆地生态系统完整性动态变化与驱动因素

生态系统完整性是维持生态服务功能和生态系统稳定的重要因素,已成为生态系统管理的目标和衡量生态系统价值的重要指标。我国尚未形成统一的陆地生态系统完整性评估体系和综合指数,基于耗散结构理论从生态系统结构、功能和弹性三方面遴选5个一级指标和6个二级指标,构建了一套适用于景观尺度,易于量化评估、动态监测的陆地生态系统完整性指标体系(terrestrial ecosystem integrity index,TEII);并以长三角区域为例,分析了2000-2018年陆地生态系统完整性动态变化及驱动力因素,结果表明:(1)长三角TEII均值整体呈下降趋势,19%的面积显著降低,15%的面积显著增加;(2) TEII显著降低区域呈两带两圈多点分布格局,显著增加区域主要分布在长三角西北部,在空间上聚集分布;(3)耕地转建设用地、草地转建设用地、林地转耕地和林地转建设用地为TEII下降的主要驱动力之一;(4) TEII与GDP呈显著负相关,人口总数与完整性在2000-2005年无显著相关性,2010-2018年呈显著负相关,且负相关紧密程度不断增加,说明长三角区域经济发展和人口增长对完整性形成了日趋严重的胁迫。     

空间相关视阈下浙江省县域生态文明建设空间格局分析

生态文明是社会文明的重要表征,是经济、政治、文化、社会的重要组成部分。利用"2017年浙江省生态文明建设年度评价结果公报"的指标数据,对绿色发展指数及6个分维度指数的空间格局进行研究,探讨空间相关视域下浙江省县域生态文明建设的空间格局。结果表明：（1）浙江省各市域绿色发展指数及分维度指数的差异明显,杭州市的绿色发展指数最高,而嘉兴市的绿色发展指数处于最低水平。（2）浙江省绿色发展指数存在空间自相关特征,但Global Moran''s I并不高。在分维度指数中,除资源利用外,环境治理、环境质量、生态保护、增长质量和绿色生活都存在明显的空间自相关性。（3）发达县域间存在资本、人才和技术的流动,有足够的经济实力和技术投入到环境污染治理和防止、生态环境保护和修复中,形成绿色发展的扩散互溢区。而欠发达县域以资源环境为代价的不持续发展方式对提高绿色发展指数具有明显的制约作用,呈现极化效应和低速增长态势。（4）研究认为可利用空间相关性发挥县域间生态文明建设的带动作用,实现生态文明建设整体水平的提高。一方面要构建跨区域绿色发展的协作机制,落实跨区域的生态补偿机制;另一方面要积极发挥试点和示范的带动作用,产生正外部性溢出效应。     

Performance index: An expeditious tool to screen for improved drought resistance in the Lathyrus genus

Some species of the Lathyrus genus are among the most promising crops for marginal lands, with high resilience to drought, flood, and fungal diseases, combined with high yields and seed nutritional value. However, lack of knowledge on the mechanisms underlying its outstanding performance and methodologies to identify elite genotypes has hampered its proper use in breeding. Chlorophyll a fast fluorescence transient(JIP test), was used to evaluate water deficit(WD)resistance in Lathyrus genus. Our results reveal unaltered photochemical values for all studied genotypes showing resistance to mild WD. Under severe WD, two Lathyrus sativus genotypes showed remarkable resilience maintaining the photochemical efficiency, contrary to other genotypes studied.Performance index(PIABS) is the best parameter to screen genotypes with improved performance and grain production under WD. Moreover, we found that JIP indices are good indicators of genotypic grain production under WD. Quantum yield of electron transport(wEo) and efficiency with which trapped excitons can move electrons further than QA(c0)revealed as important traits related to improved photosynthetic performance and should be exploited in future Lathyrus germplasm improvements. The JIP test herein described showed to be an expeditious tool to screen and to identify elite genotypes with improved drought resistance.