Is my species distribution model fit for purpose? Matching data and models to applications

Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to inform a range of ecological, biogeographical and conservation applications. However, users often underestimate the strong links between data type, model output and suitability for end‐use. We synthesize current knowledge and provide a simple framework that summarizes how interactions between data type and the sampling process (i.e. imperfect detection and sampling bias) determine the quantity that is estimated by a SDM. We then draw upon the published literature and simulations to illustrate and evaluate the information needs of the most common ecological, biogeographical and conservation applications of SDM outputs. We find that, while predictions of models fitted to the most commonly available observational data (presence records) suffice for some applications, others require estimates of occurrence probabilities, which are unattainable without reliable absence records. Our literature review and simulations reveal that, while converting continuous SDM outputs into categories of assumed presence or absence is common practice, it is seldom clearly justified by the application's objective and it usually degrades inference. Matching SDMs to the needs of particular applications is critical to avoid poor scientific inference and management outcomes. This paper aims to help modellers and users assess whether their intended SDM outputs are indeed fit for purpose.     

Accessibility maps as a tool to predict sampling bias in historical biodiversity occurrence records

Historical biodiversity occurrence records are often discarded in spatial modeling analyses because of a lack of a method to quantify their sampling bias. Here we propose a new approach for predicting sampling bias in historical written records of occurrence, using a South African example as proof of concept. We modelled and mapped accessibility of the study area as the mean of proximity to freshwater and European settlements. We tested the model's ability to predict the location of historical biodiversity records from a dataset of 2612 large mammal occurrence records collected from historical written sources in South Africa in the period 1497–1920. We investigated temporal, spatial and environmental biases in these historical records and examined if the model prediction and occurrence dataset share similar environmental bias. We find a good agreement between the accessibility map and the distribution of sampling effort in the early historical period in South Africa. Environmental biases in the empirical data are identified, showing a preference for lower maximum temperature of the warmest month, higher mean monthly precipitation, higher net primary productivity and less arid biomes than expected by a uniform use of the study area. We find that the model prediction shares similar environmental bias as the empirical data. Accessibility maps, built with very simple statistical rules and in the absence of empirical data, can thus predict the spatial and environmental biases observed in historical biodiversity occurrence records. We recommend that this approach be used as a tool to estimate sampling bias in small datasets of occurrence and to improve the use of these data in spatial analyses in ecological and conservation studies.     

Spatial sampling bias and model complexity in stream‐based species distribution models: A case study of Paddlefish (Polyodon spathula) in the Arkansas River basin,USA

Leveraging existing presence records and geospatial datasets, species distribution modeling has been widely applied to informing species conservation and restoration efforts. Maxent is one of the most popular modeling algorithms, yet recent research has demonstrated Maxent models are vulnerable to prediction errors related to spatial sampling bias and model complexity. Despite elevated rates of biodiversity imperilment in stream ecosystems, the application of Maxent models to stream networks has lagged, as has the availability of tools to address potential sources of error and calculate model evaluation metrics when modeling in nonraster environments (such as stream networks). Herein, we use Maxent and customized R code to estimate the potential distribution of paddlefish (Polyodon spathula) at a stream‐segment level within the Arkansas River basin, USA, while accounting for potential spatial sampling bias and model complexity. Filtering the presence data appeared to adequately remove an eastward, large‐river sampling bias that was evident within the unfiltered presence dataset. In particular, our novel riverscape filter provided a repeatable means of obtaining a relatively even coverage of presence data among watersheds and streams of varying sizes. The greatest differences in estimated distributions were observed among models constructed with default versus AIC_C‐selected parameterization. Although all models had similarly high performance and evaluation metrics, the AIC_C‐selected models were more inclusive of westward‐situated and smaller, headwater streams. Overall, our results solidified the importance of accounting for model complexity and spatial sampling bias in SDMs constructed within stream networks and provided a roadmap for future paddlefish restoration efforts in the study area.     

Performance tradeoffs in target‐group bias correction for species distribution models

Species distribution models (SDMs) are often calibrated using presence‐only datasets plagued with environmental sampling bias, which leads to a decrease of model accuracy. In order to compensate for this bias, it has been suggested that background data (or pseudoabsences) should represent the area that has been sampled. However, spatially‐explicit knowledge of sampling effort is rarely available. In multi‐species studies, sampling effort has been inferred following the target‐group (TG) approach, where aggregated occurrence of TG species informs the selection of background data. However, little is known about the species‐ specific response to this type of bias correction. The present study aims at evaluating the impacts of sampling bias and bias correction on SDM performance. To this end, we designed a realistic system of sampling bias and virtual species based on 92 terrestrial mammal species occurring in the Mediterranean basin. We manipulated presence and background data selection to calibrate four SDM types. Unbiased (unbiased presence data) and biased (biased presence data) SDMs were calibrated using randomly distributed background data. We used real and TG‐estimated sampling efforts in background selection to correct for sampling bias in presence data. Overall, environmental sampling bias had a deleterious effect on SDM performance. In addition, bias correction improved model accuracy, and especially when based on spatially‐explicit knowledge of sampling effort. However, our results highlight important species‐specific variations in susceptibility to sampling bias, which were largely explained by range size: widely‐distributed species were most vulnerable to sampling bias and bias correction was even detrimental for narrow‐ranging species. Furthermore, spatial discrepancies in SDM predictions suggest that bias correction effectively replaces an underestimation bias with an overestimation bias, particularly in areas of low sampling intensity. Thus, our results call for a better estimation of sampling effort in multispecies system, and cautions the uninformed and automatic application of TG bias correction.     

Wrong,but useful: regional species distribution models may not be improved by range‐wide data under biased sampling

Species distribution modeling (SDM) is an essential method in ecology and conservation. SDMs are often calibrated within one country's borders, typically along a limited environmental gradient with biased and incomplete data, making the quality of these models questionable. In this study, we evaluated how adequate are national presence‐only data for calibrating regional SDMs. We trained SDMs for Egyptian bat species at two different scales: only within Egypt and at a species‐specific global extent. We used two modeling algorithms: Maxent and elastic net, both under the point‐process modeling framework. For each modeling algorithm, we measured the congruence of the predictions of global and regional models for Egypt, assuming that the lower the congruence, the lower the appropriateness of the Egyptian dataset to describe the species' niche. We inspected the effect of incorporating predictions from global models as additional predictor (“prior”) to regional models, and quantified the improvement in terms of AUC and the congruence between regional models run with and without priors. Moreover, we analyzed predictive performance improvements after correction for sampling bias at both scales. On average, predictions from global and regional models in Egypt only weakly concur. Collectively, the use of priors did not lead to much improvement: similar AUC and high congruence between regional models calibrated with and without priors. Correction for sampling bias led to higher model performance, whatever prior used, making the use of priors less pronounced. Under biased and incomplete sampling, the use of global bats data did not improve regional model performance. Without enough bias‐free regional data, we cannot objectively identify the actual improvement of regional models after incorporating information from the global niche. However, we still believe in great potential for global model predictions to guide future surveys and improve regional sampling in data‐poor regions.     

Improved species‐occurrence predictions in data‐poor regions: using large‐scale data and bias correction with down‐weighted Poisson regression and Maxent

Species distribution modelling (SDM) has become an essential method in ecology and conservation. In the absence of survey data, the majority of SDMs are calibrated with opportunistic presence‐only data, incurring substantial sampling bias. We address the challenge of correcting for sampling bias in the data‐sparse situations. We modelled the relative intensity of bat records in their entire range using three modelling algorithms under the point‐process modelling framework (GLMs with subset selection, GLMs fitted with an elastic‐net penalty, and Maxent). To correct for sampling bias, we applied model‐based bias correction by incorporating spatial information on site accessibility or sampling efforts. We evaluated the effect of bias correction on the models’ predictive performance (AUC and TSS), calculated on spatial‐block cross‐validation and a holdout data set. When evaluated with independent, but also sampling‐biased test data, correction for sampling bias led to improved predictions. The predictive performance of the three modelling algorithms was very similar. Elastic‐net models have intermediate performance, with slight advantage for GLMs on cross‐validation and Maxent on hold‐out evaluation. Model‐based bias correction is very useful in data‐sparse situations, where detailed data are not available to apply other bias correction methods. However, bias correction success depends on how well the selected bias variables describe the sources of bias. In this study, accessibility covariates described bias in our data better than the effort covariate, and their use led to larger changes in predictive performance. Objectively evaluating bias correction requires bias‐free presence–absence test data, and without them the real improvement for describing a species’ environmental niche cannot be assessed.     

A conceptual framework for the spatial analysis of landscape genetic data

Understanding how landscape heterogeneity constrains gene flow and the spread of adaptive genetic variation is important for biological conservation given current global change. However, the integration of population genetics, landscape ecology and spatial statistics remains an interdisciplinary challenge at the levels of concepts and methods. We present a conceptual framework to relate the spatial distribution of genetic variation to the processes of gene flow and adaptation as regulated by spatial heterogeneity of the environment, while explicitly considering the spatial and temporal dynamics of landscapes, organisms and their genes. When selecting the appropriate analytical methods, it is necessary to consider the effects of multiple processes and the nature of population genetic data. Our framework relates key landscape genetics questions to four levels of analysis: (i) node-based methods, which model the spatial distribution of alleles at sampling locations (nodes) from local site characteristics; these methods are suitable for modeling adaptive genetic variation while accounting for the presence of spatial autocorrelation. (ii) Link-based methods, which model the probability of gene flow between two patches (link) and relate neutral molecular marker data to landscape heterogeneity; these methods are suitable for modeling neutral genetic variation but are subject to inferential problems, which may be alleviated by reducing links based on a network model of the population. (iii) Neighborhood-based methods, which model the connectivity of a focal patch with all other patches in its local neighborhood; these methods provide a link to metapopulation theory and landscape connectivity modeling and may allow the integration of node- and link-based information, but applications in landscape genetics are still limited. (iv) Boundary-based methods, which delineate genetically homogeneous populations and infer the location of genetic boundaries; these methods are suitable for testing for barrier effects of landscape features in a hypothesis-testing framework. We conclude that the power to detect the effect of landscape heterogeneity on the spatial distribution of genetic variation can be increased by explicit consideration of underlying assumptions and choice of an appropriate analytical approach depending on the research question.     

Using Historical Atlas Data to Develop High-Resolution Distribution Models of Freshwater Fishes

Understanding the spatial pattern of species distributions is fundamental in biogeography, and conservation and resource management applications. Most species distribution models (SDMs) require or prefer species presence and absence data for adequate estimation of model parameters. However, observations with unreliable or unreported species absences dominate and limit the implementation of SDMs. Presence-only models generally yield less accurate predictions of species distribution, and make it difficult to incorporate spatial autocorrelation. The availability of large amounts of historical presence records for freshwater fishes of the United States provides an opportunity for deriving reliable absences from data reported as presence-only, when sampling was predominantly community-based. In this study, we used boosted regression trees (BRT), logistic regression, and MaxEnt models to assess the performance of a historical metacommunity database with inferred absences, for modeling fish distributions, investigating the effect of model choice and data properties thereby. With models of the distribution of 76 native, non-game fish species of varied traits and rarity attributes in four river basins across the United States, we show that model accuracy depends on data quality (e.g., sample size, location precision), species’ rarity, statistical modeling technique, and consideration of spatial autocorrelation. The cross-validation area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC) tended to be high in the spatial presence-absence models at the highest level of resolution for species with large geographic ranges and small local populations. Prevalence affected training but not validation AUC. The key habitat predictors identified and the fish-habitat relationships evaluated through partial dependence plots corroborated most previous studies. The community-based SDM framework broadens our capability to model species distributions by innovatively removing the constraint of lack of species absence data, thus providing a robust prediction of distribution for stream fishes in other regions where historical data exist, and for other taxa (e.g., benthic macroinvertebrates, birds) usually observed by community-based sampling designs.     

A Three-Tiered Approach to Long Term Monitoring Program Optimization

Long term monitoring optimization (LTMO) has proved a valuable method for reducing costs, assuring proper remedial decisions are made, and streamlining data collection and management requirements over the life of a monitoring program. A three-tiered approach for LTMO has been developed that combines a qualitative evaluation with an evaluation of temporal trends in contaminant concentrations, and a spatial statistical analysis. The results of the three evaluations are combined to determine the degree to which a monitoring program addresses the monitoring program objectives, and a decision algorithm is applied to assess the optimal frequency of monitoring and spatial distribution of the components of the monitoring network. Ultimately, application of the three-tiered method can be used to identify potential modifications in sampling locations and sampling frequency that will optimally meet monitoring objectives. To date, the three-tiered approach has been applied to monitoring programs at 18 sites and has been used to identify a potential average reduction of over one-third of well sampling events per year. This paper discusses the three-tiered approach methodology, including data compilation and site screening, qualitative evaluation decision logic, temporal trend evaluation, and spatial statistical analysis, illustrated using the results of a case study site. Additionally, results of multiple applications of the three-tiered LTMO approach are summarized, and future work is discussed.     

A Three-Tiered Approach to Long Term Monitoring Program Optimization

Long term monitoring optimization (LTMO) has proved a valuable method for reducing costs, assuring proper remedial decisions are made, and streamlining data collection and management requirements over the life of a monitoring program. A three-tiered approach for LTMO has been developed that combines a qualitative evaluation with an evaluation of temporal trends in contaminant concentrations, and a spatial statistical analysis. The results of the three evaluations are combined to determine the degree to which a monitoring program addresses the monitoring program objectives, and a decision algorithm is applied to assess the optimal frequency of monitoring and spatial distribution of the components of the monitoring network. Ultimately, application of the three-tiered method can be used to identify potential modifications in sampling locations and sampling frequency that will optimally meet monitoring objectives. To date, the three-tiered approach has been applied to monitoring programs at 18 sites and has been used to identify a potential average reduction of over one-third of well sampling events per year. This paper discusses the three-tiered approach methodology, including data compilation and site screening, qualitative evaluation decision logic, temporal trend evaluation, and spatial statistical analysis, illustrated using the results of a case study site. Additionally, results of multiple applications of the three-tiered LTMO approach are summarized, and future work is discussed.     

A Bayesian hierarchical trend analysis finds strong evidence for large-scale temporal declines in stream ecological condition around Melbourne, Australia

Knowledge of temporal change in ecological condition is important for the understanding and management of ecosystems. However, analyses of trends in biological condition have been rare, as there are usually too few data points at any single site to use many trend analysis techniques. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to analyse temporal trends in stream ecological condition (as measured by the invertebrate-based index SIGNAL) across Melbourne, Australia. The Bayesian hierarchical approach assumes dependency amongst the sampling sites. Results for each site "borrow strength" from the other data because model parameter values are assumed to be drawn from a larger common distribution. This leads to robust inference despite the few data that exist at each site. Utilising the flexibility of the Bayesian approach, we also modelled change over time as a function of catchment urbanisation, allowed for potential temporal and spatial autocorrelation of the data and trend estimates, and used prior information to improve the estimate of data uncertainty. We found strong evidence of a widespread decline in SIGNAL scores for edge habitats (areas of little or no flow). The rate of decline was positively associated with catchment urbanisation. There was no evidence of such declines for riffle habitats (areas with rapid and turbulent flow). Melbourne has experienced a decline in rainfall, indicative of either drought and/or longer-term climate change. The results are consistent with the expected coupled effects of these rainfall changes and increasing urbanisation, but more research is needed to isolate a causal mechanism. More immediately, however, the Bayesian hierarchical approach has allowed us to identify a pattern in a biological monitoring data set that might otherwise have gone un-noticed, and to demonstrate a large-scale temporal decline in biological condition.     

Decisions on Temporal Sampling Protocol Influence the Detection of Ecological Patterns

Within‐site variability in species detectability is a problem common to many biodiversity assessments and can strongly bias the results. Such variability can be caused by many factors, including simple counting inaccuracies, which can be solved by increasing sample size, or by temporal changes in species behavior, meaning that the way the temporal sampling protocol is designed is also very important. Here we use the example of mist‐netted tropical birds to determine how design decisions in the temporal sampling protocol can alter the data collected and how these changes might affect the detection of ecological patterns, such as the species‐area relationship (SAR). Using data from almost 3400 birds captured from 21,000 net‐hours at 31 sites in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, we found that the magnitude of ecological trends remained fairly stable, but the probability of detecting statistically significant ecological patterns varied depending on sampling effort, time of day and season in which sampling was conducted. For example, more species were detected in the wet season, but the SAR was strongest in the dry season. We found that the temporal distribution of sampling effort was more important than its total amount, discovering that similar ecological results could have been obtained with one‐third of the total effort, as long as each site had been equally sampled over 2 yr. We discuss that projects with the same sampling effort and spatial design, but with different temporal sampling protocol are likely to report different ecological patterns, which may ultimately lead to inappropriate conservation strategies.     

Nondetection sampling bias in marked presence‐only data

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Spatio-temporal learning in predicting ambient particulate matter concentration by multi-layer perceptron

In this work, a novel spatio-temporal air quality prediction framework is proposed, and its development and efficacy as a predictive tool are described. The framework exploits data from the suite of models of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), fed to an artificial neural network for the removal of bias. The method inherently considers spatial and temporal correlations, because it is applied simultaneously to all monitoring stations of a given region, using past observations and past and future forecasts. The methodology is tested on twelve months of CAMS forecasts of daily surface particulate matter (PM₁₀) in 2017 and is verified against observations measured at 413 monitoring stations from the Italian air quality network.The raw data from the CAMS system, although they contain valuable information, show very poor performance, due to a large negative bias that does not allow the correct prediction of critical conditions. The model bias is found to have a strong seasonal dependency, with a large positive bias in winter and a small negative bias during summer months. The correction applied through the neural model allows to correct the original predictions and to practically eliminate the bias, increasing the performance forecast even to four days ahead. It is concluded that neural networks can be used to develop reliable air quality early-warning systems based on a network of automated monitoring stations and real-time ensemble predictions from deterministic models.     

Bringing Elton and Grinnell together: a quantitative framework to represent the biogeography of ecological interaction networks

Biogeography has traditionally focused on the spatial distribution and abundance of species. Both are driven by the way species interact with one another, but only recently community ecologists realized the need to document their spatial and temporal variation. Here, we call for an integrated approach, adopting the view that community structure is best represented as a network of ecological interactions, and show how it translates to biogeography questions. We propose that the ecological niche should encompass the effect of the environment on species distribution (the Grinnellian dimension of the niche) and on the ecological interactions among them (the Eltonian dimension). Starting from this concept, we develop a quantitative theory to explain turnover of interactions in space and time – i.e. a novel approach to interaction distribution modeling. We apply this framework to host–parasite interactions across Europe and find that two aspects of the environment (temperature and precipitation) exert a strong imprint on species co‐occurrence, but not on species interactions. Even where species co‐occur, interaction proves to be stochastic rather than deterministic, adding to variation in realized network structure. We also find that a large majority of host‐parasite pairs are never found together, thus precluding any inferences regarding their probability to interact. This first attempt to explain variation of network structure at large spatial scales opens new perspectives at the interface of species distribution modeling and community ecology.     

Effects of spatial scale of sampling on food web structure

This study asks whether the spatial scale of sampling alters structural properties of food webs and whether any differences are attributable to changes in species richness and connectance with scale. Understanding how different aspects of sampling effort affect ecological network structure is important for both fundamental ecological knowledge and the application of network analysis in conservation and management. Using a highly resolved food web for the marine intertidal ecosystem of the Sanak Archipelago in the Eastern Aleutian Islands, Alaska, we assess how commonly studied properties of network structure differ for 281 versions of the food web sampled at five levels of spatial scale representing six orders of magnitude in area spread across the archipelago. Species (S) and link (L) richness both increased by approximately one order of magnitude across the five spatial scales. Links per species (L/S) more than doubled, while connectance (C) decreased by approximately two‐thirds. Fourteen commonly studied properties of network structure varied systematically with spatial scale of sampling, some increasing and others decreasing. While ecological network properties varied systematically with sampling extent, analyses using the niche model and a power‐law scaling relationship indicate that for many properties, this apparent sensitivity is attributable to the increasing S and decreasing C of webs with increasing spatial scale. As long as effects of S and C are accounted for, areal sampling bias does not have a special impact on our understanding of many aspects of network structure. However, attention does need be paid to some properties such as the fraction of species in loops, which increases more than expected with greater spatial scales of sampling.     

A temporally stratified extension of space-for-time Cormack–Jolly–Seber for migratory animals

Understanding drivers of temporal variation in demographic parameters is a central goal of mark-recapture analysis. To estimate the survival of migrating animal populations in migration corridors, space-for-time mark–recapture models employ discrete sampling locations in space to monitor marked populations as they move past monitoring sites, rather than the standard practice of using fixed sampling points in time. Because these models focus on estimating survival over discrete spatial segments, model parameters are implicitly integrated over the temporal dimension. Furthermore, modeling the effect of time-varying covariates on model parameters is complicated by unknown passage times for individuals that are not detected at monitoring sites. To overcome these limitations, we extended the Cormack–Jolly–Seber (CJS) framework to estimate temporally stratified survival and capture probabilities by including a discretized arrival time process in a Bayesian framework. We allow for flexibility in the model form by including temporally stratified covariates and hierarchical structures. In addition, we provide tools for assessing model fit and comparing among alternative structural models for the parameters. We demonstrate our framework by fitting three competing models to estimate daily survival, capture, and arrival probabilities at four hydroelectric dams for over 200 000 individually tagged migratory juvenile salmon released into the Snake River, USA.     

Optimal spatio‐temporal hybrid sampling designs for ecological monitoring

Question: Static sampling designs for collecting spatial data efficiently are being readily utilized by ecologists, however, most ecological systems involve a multivariate spatial process that evolves dynamically over time. Efficient monitoring of such spatio‐temporal systems can be achieved by modeling the dynamic system and reducing the uncertainty associated with the effect of design choice at future observation times. However, can we combine traditional techniques with dynamic methods to find optimal dynamic sampling designs for monitoring the succession of a herbaceous community? Location: Lower Hamburg Bend Conservation Area, Missouri, USA (40°34′42″ lat. 95°45′38″ long.). Methods: The dynamic nature of the system under study is modeled in such a way that uncertainty in the measurements and temporal process can both be accounted for. Both fixed and roving monitoring locations were used in conjunction with a spatio‐temporal statistical model to efficiently determine optimal locations of roving monitors over time based on the reduction of uncertainty in predictions. Results: During the first 3 years of the study, roving monitors where held at fixed locations to allow for statistical parameter estimation from which to make predictions. Optimal monitoring locations for the remaining 2 years were selected based on the overall reduction in prediction uncertainty. Conclusions: The dynamic and adaptive vegetation monitoring scheme allowed for the efficient collection of data that will be utilized for many future ecological studies. By optimally placing an additional set of monitoring locations, we were able to utilize information about the system dynamics when informing the data collection process.     

Putting bryophyte communities in the map: A case study on prioritizing monitoring of human pressure in riverscapes

Freshwater ecosystems support biological communities with high species richness and conservation interest. However, these ecosystems are highly altered by human intervention and threatened worldwide, making them a priority in conservation planning and biodiversity monitoring. Bryophytes, including several conservation-interest taxa, are recognized indicators of ecological status in freshwaters. We aimed to develop a framework for designing monitoring networks to detect trends in aquatic and semi-aquatic bryophyte communities, prioritizing high-conservation interest communities in different contexts of human pressure (specifically, resulting from the intersection of two criteria: (i) protection status and (ii) presence of a potential impact area).The framework consists of three steps: (1) Spatial modelling of biodiversity; (2) Spatial conservation prioritization; and (3) Model-assisted monitoring network design. Community-level modelling was used to model the distribution of the main bryophyte assemblages in the study area. A conservation prioritization software was utilized to identify areas with high conservation value. The monitoring network was designed using stratified random sampling and unequal-probability sampling techniques to target high conservation value sites distributed across different contexts of human pressure.We have identified four distinct community types, each characterized both by a small group of common and dominant species, and by small group of rarer, conservation-interest species. This typification of four species assemblages occurring in the study area, also highlighted those with potentially higher conservation-interest. The most valuable areas for the conservation of aquatic and semi-aquatic bryophyte communities coincide with specific environmental zones: mountainous areas in Lusitania, large watercourses in the Mediterranean North and some locations in the Mediterranean Mountains. Finally, we obtained a potential monitoring network consisting of 64 monitoring points, unequally distributed across different contexts of human pressure, privileging locations with higher conservation value.The framework presented here illustrates the potential of combining biodiversity modelling, spatial conservation prioritization and monitoring design in the development of monitoring networks. Namely, this framework allowed us to counter data deficiencies, to identify high priority areas to monitor and to design a monitoring network considering different scenarios of human pressure at a regional scale.This framework can also be valuable for conservation efforts as an approach to monitoring conservation-interest biodiversity features in anthropogenically modified riverscapes, which present different degrees of human pressure and the cumulative effects of these different impact elements. Moreover, this approach allows for the comprehensive monitoring of biodiversity values important for management at the national and regional levels. In addition, this framework is one of the first efforts in the development of monitoring networks that target aquatic and semi-aquatic bryophyte communities, a long-neglected plant group of high ecological and conservation importance in freshwater ecosystems.     

SESAM – a new framework integrating macroecological and species distribution models for predicting spatio‐temporal patterns of species assemblages

Two different approaches currently prevail for predicting spatial patterns of species assemblages. The first approach (macroecological modelling, MEM) focuses directly on realized properties of species assemblages, whereas the second approach (stacked species distribution modelling, S‐SDM) starts with constituent species to approximate the properties of assemblages. Here, we propose to unify the two approaches in a single ‘spatially explicit species assemblage modelling’ (SESAM) framework. This framework uses relevant designations of initial species source pools for modelling, macroecological variables, and ecological assembly rules to constrain predictions of the richness and composition of species assemblages obtained by stacking predictions of individual species distributions. We believe that such a framework could prove useful in many theoretical and applied disciplines of ecology and evolution, both for improving our basic understanding of species assembly across spatio‐temporal scales and for anticipating expected consequences of local, regional or global environmental changes. In this paper, we propose such a framework and call for further developments and testing across a broad range of community types in a variety of environments.