Benthic and fish aggregation inside an offshore wind farm: Which effects on the trophic web functioning?

As part of the energy transition, the French government is planning the construction of three offshore wind farms in Normandy (Bay of Seine and eastern part of the English Channel, north-western France) in the next years. These offshore wind farms will be integrated into an ecosystem already facing multiple anthropogenic disturbances such as maritime transport, fisheries, oyster and mussel farming, and sediment dredging. Currently no integrated, ecosystem-based study on the effects of the construction and exploitation of offshore wind farms exists, where biological approaches generally focused on the conservation of some valuable species or groups of species. Complementary trophic web modelling tools were applied to the Bay of Seine ecosystem (to the 50 km² area covered by the wind farm) to analyse the potential impacts of benthos and fish aggregation caused by the introduction of additional hard substrates from the piles and the turbine scour protections. An Ecopath ecosystem model composed of 37 compartments, from phytoplankton to seabirds, was built to describe the situation “before” the construction of the wind farm. Then, an Ecosim projection over 30 years was performed after increasing the biomass of targeted benthic and fish compartments. Ecological Network Analysis (ENA) indices were calculated for the two periods, “before” and “after”, to compare network functioning and the overall structural properties of the food web. Our main results showed (1) that the total ecosystem activity, the overall system omnivory (proportion of generalist feeders), and the recycling increased after the construction of the wind farm; (2) that higher trophic levels such as piscivorous fish species, marine mammals, and seabirds responded positively to the aggregation of biomass on piles and turbine scour protections; and (3) a change in keystone groups after the construction towards more structuring and dominant compartments. Nonetheless, these changes could be considered as limited impacts of the wind farm installation on this coastal trophic web structure and functioning.     

我国湖泊与海水鱼类养殖的环境效应和基于生态系统的渔业管理

在我国,鱼类养殖是一项重要的商业活动。鱼类养殖在过去几十年的快速发展过程中,对水环境产生了重要影响。研究表明:鱼类养殖对养殖区鱼、浮游生物、水生植物群落结构和水质变化有重要影响。现在,几乎所有的鱼类养殖系统都在一定程度上受到了损害。随着人们环境保护意识的增强,鱼类养殖的环境效应和渔业管理问题已引起了社会的广泛关注,渔业管理不再仅仅是通过开发资源以获取最高产量。面临挑战,人们应该采取切实可行的步骤,从传统的渔业管理转变到基于生态系统的渔业管理,将渔业纳入生态系统管理以保障养殖业的可持续发展。     

基于生态通道模型的北部湾渔业管理策略的评价

北部湾位于南海17°00′-21°45′N,105°40′-110°10′E,为中越两国共同管辖的天然半封闭海湾。根据1997-1999年在北部湾进行的渔业资源和生态环境调查数据,利用EwE软件构建了北部湾生态系统的营养通道模型（Ecopath）。在此基础上,以30a为周期,利用Ecosim中的“渔业管理者”模拟了不同管理策略（经济效益最大化、社会效益最大化、生态效益最大化以及综合考虑三者的最佳管理）对北部湾捕捞结构的影响。结果表明：以经济利益最大化为管理策略时会提高所有渔具的捕捞努力量,除了拖网下降43.2%之外;以社会利益最大化为管理策略时模型要求极大地增加小型渔业,尤其是混合渔业的捕捞努力量将上升3.34倍;而以生态稳定性最大化为管理目标时,模型要求所有渔业的捕捞努力量都必须降低甚至停止。以经济和社会利益最大化为管理目标对不同的vulnerability（V＇s）值的反应敏感,高营养级种类减少而低营养级种增加,其中社会利益最大化时系统的营养级最低（2.78）;而生态稳定性和综合管理目标最大化则对不同的敏感度的反应较为一致。综合考虑经济、社会和生态效应的最佳管理策略能满足渔业和保育目标的平衡,有望成为最佳的管理策略。由此可见,多鱼种捕捞策略的模拟是个复杂的任务,目标功能有时互相冲突,而且易受到初始模型条件的影响。     

Mass-balanced trophic and loop models of complex benthic systems in northern Chile (SE Pacific) to improve sustainable interventions: a comparative analysis

The capacity to withstand perturbations and the propagation of direct and indirect effects of harvesting were explored in seagrass and sand–gravel subtidal subsystems of northern Chile using Ecopath II, Ecosim and Loop Analysis theoretical frameworks. The relative Ascendancy and Redundancy from Ecopath II and Ecosim models and the holistic stability measure (F _n ) given by Loop Analysis, all suggest that the sand–gravel subsystem is the more resistant and its fishery more sustainable. This outcome is relevant since the theoretical frameworks used are based on different assumptions but arrive at similar conclusions. If the fishery is included in the qualitative ecological models, which were found locally stable only when the fishery is self-controlled. While this conclusion is not new, its relevance here is that it emerges from qualitative multispecies modelling (Loop Analysis). Based on our model predictions, the biomass removal of the sea star Meyenaster gelatinosus would increase the standing stock of the commercial scallop Argopecten purpuratus only in the seagrass habitat, whereas the same man-made intervention may have an opposite effect in the sand–gravel habitat. We recommend to enunciate holistic models based on the theoretical framework used in the current work, which explore the reality from different perspectives assuming different givens. Based on these holistic explorations alternative and complementary management scenarios could be designed. Handling editor: T. P. Crowe     

Compilation and discussion of driver,pressure, and state indicators for the Grand Bank ecosystem,Northwest Atlantic

There are global calls for new ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) approaches. Scientific support for EBFM includes assessing ecosystem indicators of biological communities, environmental conditions, and human activities. As part of a broader research project we have synthesized a suite of traditional and new indicators for the Grand Bank in Atlantic Canada, which we share here. This is an ideal ecosystem for indicator analysis because it experienced dramatic changes over the past three decades, including a collapse in fish biomass that had profound socio-economic consequences. We exploit the wealth of data for this ecosystem to investigate how individual indicators reflect observed changes in the ecosystem, and then illustrate two applications of this indicator suite. Correlations were used to show that relationships among the fish functional groups changed after the collapse, and that a subset of indicators is sufficient to characterize each ecosystem category. Lagged correlations highlighted how changes in the drivers and pressures are often not immediately manifest in the fish community structure. We also organized indicators into the DPSIR (driver-pressure-state-impact-response) management framework. This exercise illustrated that indicator categorization is contextual and not straightforward, and we advocate for use of simpler categories that clearly show what is actionable. Additional future analyses that can be performed with our newly published suite of indicators are recommended.     

Synechococcus as an indicator of trophic status in the Cochin backwaters,west coast of India

Eutrophication is a major problem in coastal water bodies. Information about the trophic status of water bodies will enable proper management of coastal ecosystems. In this regard, biological organisms which are sensitive to environmental changes can serve as indicators of ecosystem trophic status. In this study, seasonal and spatial variations of picophytoplankton (PP; <3 μm size) community structure was assessed in the Cochin backwaters (CB) with respect to the prevailing environmental conditions during three seasons, post-monsoon (PM-I; October 2011 and PM-II; November 2012), pre-monsoon (PrM; May 2012) and monsoon (MON; August 2012). CB, along the west coast of India, receives continuous load of nutrients throughout the year through anthropogenic wastes. Trophic status index (TRIX) scores showed that CB is highly eutrophic with a high phytoplankton biomass. Synechococcus was the dominant PP observed in the study area. Seasonal and spatial salinity variations influenced the PP distribution, especially Synechococcus where PE-rich Synechococcus (SYN-PE) were dominant in higher saline (>30) and PC-rich Synechococcus (SYN-PC) in lower saline (<30) waters. SYN-PC showed a significant positive relation with chlorophyll a suggesting that this group contributes substantially to the total phytoplankton biomass. TRIX scores and SYN-PC: SYN-PE abundance ratio were negatively correlated with salinity suggesting an influence of the tidal amplitude. SYN-PC correlated positively and SYN-PE negatively with TRIX scores suggesting that these groups occupy contrasting ecological niches. These findings imply that PP distribution pattern can serve as an indicator of the trophic status of coastal water bodies.     

Coral–algal phase shifts alter fish communities and reduce fisheries production

Anthropogenic stress has been shown to reduce coral coverage in ecosystems all over the world. A phase shift towards an algae‐dominated system may accompany coral loss. In this case, the composition of the reef‐associated fish assemblage will change and human communities relying on reef fisheries for income and food security may be negatively impacted. We present a case study based on the Raja Ampat Archipelago in Eastern Indonesia. Using a dynamic food web model, we simulate the loss of coral reefs with accompanied transition towards an algae‐dominated state and quantify the likely change in fish populations and fisheries productivity. One set of simulations represents extreme scenarios, including 100% loss of coral. In this experiment, ecosystem changes are driven by coral loss itself and a degree of habitat dependency by reef fish is assumed. An alternative simulation is presented without assumed habitat dependency, where changes to the ecosystem are driven by historical observations of reef fish communities when coral is lost. The coral–algal phase shift results in reduced biodiversity and ecosystem maturity. Relative increases in the biomass of small‐bodied fish species mean higher productivity on reefs overall, but much reduced landings of traditionally targeted species.     

Trophic interactions and community structure in the upwelling system off Central Chile (33-39°S)

Trophic interactions and community structure in the upwelling system off Central Chile (USCCh) (33-39°S) are analyzed using biological and ecological data concerning the main trophic groups and the Ecopath with Ecosim software version 5.0 (EwE). The model encompasses the fisheries, cetaceans, sea lion, marine birds, cephalopods, large-sized pelagic fish (sword fish), medium-sized pelagic fish (horse mackerel, hoki), small-sized pelagic fish (anchovy, common sardine), demersal fish (e.g. Chilean hake, black conger-eel), benthic invertebrates (red squat lobster, yellow squat lobster) and other groups such as zooplankton, phytoplankton and detritus. Input data was gathered from published and unpublished reports and our own estimates. Trophic interactions, system indicators and food web attributes are calculated using network analysis routines included in EwE. Results indicate that trophic groups are aligned around four trophic levels (TL) with phytoplankton and detritus at the TL=1, while large-sized pelagic fish and cetaceans are top predators (TL>4.0). The fishery is located at an intermediate to low trophic level (TL=2.97), removing about 15% of the calculated system primary production. The pelagic realm dominates the system, with medium-sized pelagic fish as the main fish component in biomass, while small-sized pelagic fish dominate total landings. Chilean hake is by far the main demersal fish component in both, biomass and yield. Predators consume the greater part of the production of the most important fishery resources, particularly juvenile stages of Chilean hake. Consequently, mortality by predation is an important component of total mortality. However, fishery also removes a large fraction of common sardine, anchovy, horse mackerel, and Chilean hake. The analysis of direct and indirect trophic impacts reveals that Chilean hake is a highly cannibalistic species. Chilean hake is also an important predator on anchovy, common sardine, benthic invertebrates, and demersal fish. The fisheries heavily impact on Chilean hake, common sardine, anchovy, and horse mackerel. Total system biomass (B=476 t km⁻² year⁻¹) and throughput (T=89454 t km⁻² year⁻¹) estimated in the USCCh model are in accordance with models of comparable systems. Considering system attributes derived from network analysis, the USCCh can be characterized as an immature system, with short trophic chains and low trophic transfer efficiency. Finally, we suggest that trophic interactions should be considered in stock assessment and management programs in USCCh. In addition, future research programs should be carried out in order to understand the ecosystem effects of fishing and trophic control in this highly productive food web.     

Marine ecosystem regime shifts: challenges and opportunities for ecosystem-based management

Regime shifts have been observed in marine ecosystems around the globe. These phenomena can result in dramatic changes in the provision of ecosystem services to coastal communities. Accounting for regime shifts in management clearly requires integrative, ecosystem-based management (EBM) approaches. EBM has emerged as an accepted paradigm for ocean management worldwide, yet, despite the rapid and intense development of EBM theory, implementation has languished, and many implemented or proposed EBM schemes largely ignore the special characteristics of regime shifts. Here, we first explore key aspects of regime shifts that are of critical importance to EBM, and then suggest how regime shifts can be better incorporated into EBM using the concept of integrated ecosystem assessment (IEA). An IEA uses approaches that determine the likelihood that ecological or socio-economic properties of systems will move beyond or return to acceptable bounds as defined by resource managers and policy makers. We suggest an approach for implementing IEAs for cases of regime shifts where the objectives are either avoiding an undesired state or returning to a desired condition. We discuss the suitability and short-comings of methods summarizing the status of ecosystem components, screening and prioritizing potential risks, and evaluating alternative management strategies. IEAs are evolving as an EBM approach that can address regime shifts; however, advances in statistical, analytical and simulation modelling are needed before IEAs can robustly inform tactical management in systems characterized by regime shifts.     

Evaluating Network Analysis Indicators of Ecosystem Status in the Gulf of Alaska

This is the first study on the emergent properties for empirical ecosystem models that have been validated by time series information. Ecosystem models of the western and central Aleutian Islands and Southeast Alaska were used to examine indices of ecosystem status generated from network analysis and incorporated into Ecopath with Ecosim. Dynamic simulations of the two ecosystems over the past 40 years were employed to examine if these indices reflect the dissimilar changes that occurred in the ecosystems. The results showed that the total systems throughput (TST) and ascendancy (A) followed the climate change signature (Pacific decadal oscillation, PDO) in both ecosystems, whereas the redundancy (R) followed the inverse trend. The different trajectories for important species such as Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus), Atka mackerel (Pleurogrammus monopterygius), pollock (Theragra chalcograma), herring (Clupea pallasii), Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) and halibut (Hippoglossus stenolepis) were noticeable in the Finn cycling index (FCI), entropy (H) and average mutual information (AMI): not showing large change during the time that the Stellers sea lions, herring, Pacific cod, halibut and arrowtooth flounder (Atheresthes stomias) increased in Southeast Alaska, but showing large declines during the decline of Steller sea lions, sharks, Atka mackerel and arrowtooth flounder in the Aleutians. On the whole, there was a change in the emergent properties of the Aleutians around 1976 that was not seen in Southeast Alaska. Conversely, the emergent properties of both systems showed a change around 1988, which indicated that both systems were unstable after 1988.     

Using an Ecosystem Modeling Approach to Explore Possible Ecosystem Impacts of Fishing in the Beibu Gulf,Northern South China Sea

Using the Ecopath with Ecosim software, a trophic structure model of the Beibu Gulf was constructed to explore the energy flows and provide a snapshot of the ecosystem operations. Input data were mainly from the trawl survey data collected from October 1998 to September 1999 and related literatures. The impacts of various fishing pressure on the biomass were examined by simulation at different fishing mortality rates. The model consists of 20 functional groups (boxes), each representing organisms with a similar role in the food web, and only covers the major trophic flows in the Beibu Gulf ecosystem. It was found that the food web of the Beibu Gulf was dominated by the primary producers path, and phytoplankton was the primary producer mostly used as a food source. The fractional trophic levels ranged from 1.0 to 4.02, and the marine mammals occupied the highest trophic level. Using network analysis, the ecosystem network was mapped into a linear food chain, and six discrete trophic levels were found with a mean transfer efficiency of 11.2%. The Finn cycling index was 9.73%. The path length was 1.821. The omnivory index was 0.197. The ecosystem had some degree of instability due to exploitation and other human activities, according to Odum’s theory of ecosystem development. A 10-year simulation was performed for each fishery scenario. The fishing mortality rate was found to have a strong impact on the biomass. By keeping the fishing mortality rate at the current level for all fishing sectors, scenario 1 had a drastic decrease in the large fish groups. The biomass of the small and medium pelagic fish would increase to some extent. The biomass of the small and low trophic level species, jellyfish, prawns and benthic crustaceans would be stable. The total biomass of the fishery resources would have a 10% decrease from the current biomass after 10 years. In contrast, the reduced fishing mortality rate induced the recovery of biomass (scenarios 2–4). In scenario 2, the biomass of the large demersal fish and the large pelagic fish would increase to over 16 times and 10 times, respectively, of their current level. In scenario 4, the biomass of the large pelagic fish would increase to over 3 times of its current level. The total biomass of the fish groups, especially the high trophic level groups, would become significantly higher after 10 years, which illustrates the contribution on biomass recovery by relaxing the fishing pressure. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. Author contributions: Xiaoping Jia designed research; Zuozhi Chen and Yongsong Qiu performed research; Zuozhi Chen, Yongsong Qiu, and Shannan Xu analyzed data; and Zuozhi Chen and Shannan Xu wrote the article.     

Assessing the trophic impacts of marine mammals: From metabolism to food web indices

Marine mammals are an important part of ecosystems, and their trophic role and potential impact have been increasingly studied. One key question is how these large animals interact with fisheries or compete for similar resources. Consequently, some models once used only for fisheries management are now including pinnipeds and cetaceans. However, fish and marine mammals do not share the same ecology and bioenergetics, and complex ecosystem models may not be the best way to assess the impact of pinnipeds or cetaceans in food webs. Indeed, simpler methods based on thermodynamics might give us reasonable answers with limited amounts of data. Here, we present an assessment of two different approaches to assess the trophic role of marine mammals in the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence (Canada): mixed trophic impacts (MTI) based on ecosystem modeling and surface index (SI) impact based on bioenergetics. Our results show that while modeling represents a good way of getting a holistic view of the role of marine mammals in ecosystems, trophic impact estimates based on fundamental thermodynamics principles can also give us answers requiring less data. The body surface area approach presented here might provide a practical tool for ecologists, who are not necessarily ecosystem modelers, to study this issue.     

基于CiteSpace的EwE模型文献计量学与可视化分析

为探究EwE(Ecopath with Ecosim)模型的历史演变和应用现状,本文通过Web of Science主题检索和引文链接法获得1984-2020年间的研究文献构成核心数据集和扩展数据集,并以此为数据源,从论文分布、研究力量、研究主题、热点演化等方面进行科学文献计量分析,利用CiteSpace软件绘制相关图...     

Combined effects of global climate change and regional ecosystem drivers on an exploited marine food web

Changes in climate, in combination with intensive exploitation of marine resources, have caused large‐scale reorganizations in many of the world's marine ecosystems during the past decades. The Baltic Sea in Northern Europe is one of the systems most affected. In addition to being exposed to persistent eutrophication, intensive fishing, and one of the world's fastest rates of warming in the last two decades of the 20th century, accelerated climate change including atmospheric warming and changes in precipitation is projected for this region during the 21st century. Here, we used a new multimodel approach to project how the interaction of climate, nutrient loads, and cod fishing may affect the future of the open Central Baltic Sea food web. Regionally downscaled global climate scenarios were, in combination with three nutrient load scenarios, used to drive an ensemble of three regional biogeochemical models (BGMs). An Ecopath with Ecosim food web model was then forced with the BGM results from different nutrient‐climate scenarios in combination with two different cod fishing scenarios. The results showed that regional management is likely to play a major role in determining the future of the Baltic Sea ecosystem. By the end of the 21st century, for example, the combination of intensive cod fishing and high nutrient loads projected a strongly eutrophicated and sprat‐dominated ecosystem, whereas low cod fishing in combination with low nutrient loads resulted in a cod‐dominated ecosystem with eutrophication levels close to present. Also, nonlinearities were observed in the sensitivity of different trophic groups to nutrient loads or fishing depending on the combination of the two. Finally, many climate variables and species biomasses were projected to levels unseen in the past. Hence, the risk for ecological surprises needs to be addressed, particularly when the results are discussed in the ecosystem‐based management context.     

Ecological indicators for assessing management effectiveness: A case study of horse riding in an Alpine National Park

Recreation activities and visitor use often have deleterious ecological impacts in protected areas. Management agencies then face the difficult task of providing recreation and tourism opportunities without compromising environmental values. This study assessed the success of efforts aimed at conserving alpine vegetation along the Mt Bogong Massif in Victoria, Australia, through controlling the use of horses. Vegetation condition was assessed in 2001 to coinciding with restrictions on the use of horse riding on trails and then resurveyed 10 years later. Sampling was undertaken in track plots that included the trail and surrounding vegetation, and control plots located away from the trail. There were significant differences in the amount of bare ground, the height of shrubs and ground layer vegetation, and shrub cover between track and control plots in 2001. Ten years later, track plots were recovering with reductions in bare ground and changes in vegetation, with improved ground layer vegetation height. Results show that vegetation condition has improved with restrictions of horse numbers. The indicators selected were sensitive to changes in vegetation condition and hence should be used for ongoing assessment of the effectiveness of this and similar management interventions.     

The diet composition of immature loggerheads: Insights on trophic niche, growth rates, and fisheries interactions

For immature animals, diet quality and composition influence expression of life history traits such as growth rates and ultimately life stage duration and age to maturity. Circumglobally distributed loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) exhibit a multi-decade immature stage that generally occupies neritic habitats and is characterized by slow growth and an omnivorous diet. Although adult nesting populations are geographically distinct, foraging areas for immature loggerheads show a high degree of mixing of individuals that originate from multiple nesting stocks. Furthermore, despite their generalist foraging ecology, immature loggerheads have been observed to supplement their natural diets with fish from fishery discards and/or caught in fishing gear. However, whether trophic opportunism results in variation in loggerhead growth rates within or among feeding areas has not been investigated. In Core Sound, North Carolina (NC), USA, immature loggerheads demonstrate highly variable size-specific growth rates, in contrast to other studies that report discernible somatic growth functions in immature marine turtles. To determine whether inter-individual variation in growth rates at this site was due to variation in diet composition, and specifically variation in consumption of fish, we analyzed carbon and nitrogen stable isotope ratios of loggerhead blood plasma and of tissue samples of putative loggerhead prey, as well as commercially important fish species. Our results indicated that growth rates were not related to trophic levels at which individual turtles fed, but rather probably reflected inter-individual variation in overwintering or foraging behavior (i.e. nearshore vs. offshore). Furthermore, loggerhead diets were highly diverse, and comprised mainly blue crabs and/or whelks, as well as small proportions of cannonball jellies. Fish were unimportant dietary components for loggerheads. Although loggerheads in NC do not appear to feed on fish catch or discards, immature turtles showed dietary preferences for prey items that are also valuable to or are commonly taken as bycatch in commercial fisheries (e.g. blue crabs and whelks, respectively) in the region. Thus, the status of these prey items/fishery stocks as well as trends in loggerhead populations should be monitored to mitigate potential competitive interactions between fisheries activities and loggerhead turtles.     

Diversity measures in macroinvertebrate and zooplankton communities related to the trophic status of subtropical reservoirs: Contradictory or complementary responses?

Macroinvertebrate communities have been widely used as a tool for assessing the environmental quality of freshwater ecosystems, whereas zooplankton communities have been to some extent neglected. However, the importance of using different indicators to achieve a more comprehensive framework of assessment regarding water quality has been recognized. This study compared estimates of species richness (number of species) and the Shannon–Wiener index for data on macroinvertebrate and zooplankton communities in tropical reservoirs and related them to their trophic state. The trop+hic classification was obtained by applying the Carlson index (1977) modified by Toledo et al. (1983), and the index of the Brazilian Society of the Environmental Technology Agency. The comparative response of the different indicators was analyzed using a series of bivariate correlations (Draftsman’s plot). The results illustrate that diversity measures, namely species richness, responded differently when related to the trophic classification of reservoirs, depending on the community considered. The species richness of zooplankton was positively related to hypereutrophic conditions, due to the higher number of rotifer species, including tolerant generalist species and at the same time, as a result of the exclusion of species from other groups, whereas for macroinvertebrates, species richness was negatively related to hypereutrophic conditions. Melanoides tuberculatus, which exhibits a high tolerance and competitive ability under such conditions, was the dominant species in macroinvertebrate communities, which excluded endemic species and reduced local richness and diversity. The same indicators applied to the zooplankton and macroinvertebrate communities might therefore provide contradictory responses regarding ecological quality assessment in tropical reservoirs, which suggest that zooplankton should be taken into account among the biological quality elements considered in the ecological quality assessment, management, and restoration of water bodies.     

The analysis of convergence in ecological indicators: An application to the Mediterranean fisheries

Ecological indicators are increasingly used to examine the evolution of natural ecosystems and the impacts of human activities. Assessing their trends to develop comparative analyses is essential. We introduce the analysis of convergence, a novel approach to evaluate the dynamic and trends of ecological indicators and predict their behavior in the long-term. Specifically, we use a non-parametric estimation of Gaussian kernel density functions and transition probability matrix integrated in the R software. We validate the performance of our methodology through a practical application to three different ecological indicators to study whether Mediterranean countries converge towards similar fisheries practices. We focus on how distributions evolve over time for the Marine Trophic Index, the Fishing in Balance Index and the Expansion Factor during 1950–2010. Results show that Mediterranean countries persist in their fishery behaviors throughout the time series, although a tendency towards similar negative effects on the ecosystem is apparent in the long-term. This methodology can be easily reproduced with different indicators and/or ecosystems in order to analyze ecosystem dynamics.     

Estimating the carrying capacity of French Frigate Shoals for the endangered Hawaiian monk seal using Ecopath with Ecosim

The carrying capacity of the French Frigate Shoals (FFS) region for the endangered Hawaiian monk seal was appraised using an updated version of the original FFS Ecopath model ( Polovina 1984 ). Model parameters were updated using recent literature, and data from surveys of the seal population and its bottom‐associated prey. Together they produced a static mass balance model for 1998 when the prey surveys began. The Ecopath‐estimated monk seal biomass was 0.0045 t/km², which was in close agreement with the biomass calculated from monk seal field beach counts (0.0046 t/km²). Model simulations through time were done in Ecosim using the Ecopath balanced model and included fisheries data time series from 1998 to 2008. Monk seal biomass declined concurrently with decreases in benthic bottomfish biomass, which were influenced by large‐scale changes in the environment of the North Pacific. This model scenario was extended from 2010, when the last permitted fishery in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands was closed, through to 2040, assuming a constant environmental signal. Model results for this time period did not show a recovery of monk seals that exceeded the initial 1998 model biomass levels, highlighting the importance of including environmental variability in estimates of monk seals recovery at FFS.