Of mast and mean: differential‐temperature cue makes mast seeding insensitive to climate change

Mast‐seeding plants often produce high seed crops the year after a warm spring or summer, but the warm‐temperature model has inconsistent predictive ability. Here, we show for 26 long‐term data sets from five plant families that the temperature difference between the two previous summers (ΔT) better predicts seed crops. This discovery explains how masting species tailor their flowering patterns to sites across altitudinal temperature gradients; predicts that masting will be unaffected by increasing mean temperatures under climate change; improves prediction of impacts on seed consumers; demonstrates that strongly masting species are hypersensitive to climate; explains the rarity of consecutive high‐seed years without invoking resource constraints; and generates hypotheses about physiological mechanisms in plants and insect seed predators. For plants, ΔT has many attributes of an ideal cue. This temperature‐difference model clarifies our understanding of mast seeding under environmental change, and could also be applied to other cues, such as rainfall.     

Conservatism of ecological niche characteristics in North American plant species over the Pleistocene-to-Recent transition

Aim  To provide a test of the conservatism of a species' niche over the last 20,000 years by tracking the distribution of eight pollen taxa relative to climate type as they migrated across eastern North America following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM).
Location  North America.
Methods  We drew taxon occurrence data from the North American pollen records in the Global Pollen Database, representing eight pollen types – all taxa for which ≥5 distinct geographic occurrences were available in both the present day and at the LGM (21,000 years ago ± 3000 years). These data were incorporated into ecological niche models based on present-day and LGM climatological summaries available from the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project to produce predicted potential geographic distributions for each species at present and at the LGM. The output for each time period was projected onto the 'other' time period, and tested using independent known occurrence information from that period.
Results  The result of our analyses was that all species tested showed general conservatism in ecological characteristics over the climate changes associated with the Pleistocene-to-Recent transition.
Main conclusions  This analysis constitutes a further demonstration of general and pervasive conservatism in ecological niche characteristics over moderate periods of time despite profound changes in climate and environmental conditions. As such, our results reinforce the application of ecological niche modelling techniques to the reconstruction of Pleistocene biodiversity distribution patterns, and to project the future potential distribution range of species in the face of global-scale climatic changes.     

区域种植业气候适宜度及其对种植活动的响应——以四川省盐亭县为例

在分析盐亭县近63年来(1950—2012)种植业生产发展的基础上,选取该县农村社会经济条件相对稳定的近32年(1981—2012)为研究时段。运用农业生态气候适宜度方法,依据水稻、红薯、玉米、小麦和油菜等5种主要作物生育期的光、热、水等气候条件,分别估算各种作物的资源适宜指数、效能适宜指数和利用指数,构建小尺度区域种植业气候适宜度模型和种植活动对区域种植业气候适宜度的影响度模型,进行小尺度区域种植业气候适宜度以及种植活动对种植业气候适宜度的影响度估算,并对种植业生产对气候变化的适应进行探讨。研究结果表明,(1)近32年来盐亭县大春作物的平均资源适宜指数、效能适宜指数和利用指数(分别为0.578、0.281和48.37%)均大于小春作物(分别为0.304、0.128和42.24%),大春作物的气候适宜度高于小春作物,且作物间的气候适宜度差异较大。(2)受季风气候波动的影响,该县作物气候适宜度有明显的年际波动;该县近32年来气候变化对大春作物气候适宜度有轻微不利影响,而对小春作物气候适宜度趋于有利。(3)盐亭县近32年来种植业平均的资源适宜指数为0.466、效能适宜指数为0.212、利用指数为45.49%;受5种作物资源适宜指数、效能适宜指数,以及作物播种面积与产量年际波动的综合影响,该县种植业气候适宜度亦有明显的年际波动;气候变化对该县种植业气候适宜度总体上有不利影响。(4)近32年来该县种植活动对种植业气候适宜度的影响度平均值为0.00092,其年际波动较大。通过作物种植组合结构的调整,在20世纪90年代中期前对种植业气候适宜度的提高有微弱的正向影响,对气候变化有一定程度的适应;而后期则有负向作用。     

A complete pollen record of the last 230 ka from Lynch's Crater, north-eastern Australia

Recent drilling eventually reached to the base of the sediments of Lynch's Crater on the Atherton Tableland within the humid tropics of north-eastern Australia. This paper incorporates results from the sequence extension into a complete record from the site, much of which has only been presented previously in summary form. A more certain chronology for the record is provided by recent radiocarbon dating on the topmost sediments and the application of time series analysis to the whole sequence. This suggests that the vegetation and climate are forced essentially by northern hemisphere insolation and ice volume, probably operating through sea level and sea surface temperature changes. The extended record is considered to cover the last 230,000 years and the pattern of complex rainforest expansion during wetter interglacial periods and its replacement by drier rainforest and sclerophyll vegetation during drier glacials is maintained. Superimposed on this cyclicity are trends resulting from both the evolution of the lake basin as well as external influences that include climate and, within the last 45,000 years, people.     

Glacial and interglacial refugia within a long-term rainforest refugium: The Wet Tropics Bioregion of NE Queensland, Australia

An artificial neural network is used to classify environments, including climate, terrain and soil variables, according to their suitability for fifteen structural/environmental forest classes in the Wet Tropics Bioregion of north-east Queensland. We map the environments characteristic of these forest classes in four climate regimes (the present and three past climate scenarios), quantify the changes in area of these environments in response to past regional changes in climate and identify areas that would have been environmentally suitable for rainforests at last glacial maximum (glacial refugia). We also identify areas that would have been suitable for upland and highland rainforest classes during the warmest parts of the interglacial (interglacial refugia) and map locations that consistently remain favourable to specific forest classes despite large changes in climate.In the climate of the last glacial maximum (LGM), rainforest environments are predicted in three relatively distinct refugia in the northern, central and southern Wet Tropics. Only three percent of the total area contains lowland, Mesophyll Vine Forest and the majority of the area of the rainforest refugia supports upland rainforest classes. In the cool, wet climate of the Pleistocene/Holocene transition (PHT), rainforest environments expand to form a more or less continuous block from the northern limits of the region to the Walter Hill Range, except for discontinuous patches extending through the Seaview and Paluma Ranges in the south. During the Holocene climatic optimum (HCO), rainforest environments become more fragmented, especially in the south. Lowland rainforest environments are very extensive in this climate while upland rainforest classes are restricted to what we term “interglacial refugia”.Estimated distributions and stable locations (consistently predicted in all four climate scenarios) for the various rainforest environment classes are our main, novel contribution. Each forest environment responds individualistically to climate change. Our results confirm the highly dynamic nature of the Wet Tropics landscape and present a much more detailed picture of landscape change since the late Pleistocene than previously has been available. This mapping exercise should be useful in the future for analyses of present-day biogeographic patterns. We argue that empirical modelling approaches have an important role in palaeoecology and global change research that is complementary to the developing mechanistic methods.     

Masting by Betula-species; applying the resource budget model to north European data sets

Masting, the intermittent production of large crops of flowers by a plant population, is a common feature among trees in boreal and temperate forests. The pollen of many broadleaved trees causes allergic diseases, which are major causes of increasing health-care costs in industrialised countries. As the prevalence and severity of allergic diseases are connected with the concentrations of airborne pollen, an universal model predicting the intensity of the coming flowering would be a valuable tool for pollen information services, and ultimately for allergic people and allergologists. We investigated whether a resource budget model created in Japan explains the fluctuations in the annual pollen sums of Betula-species in north European data sets (10–12 years at 4 sites, 20 years at 10 sites). Using the shorter data sets, the model explained 76–92% of the annual fluctuations at five study sites. Using the 20-year data set, the percentage for southern Finland was much lower, only 48%, compared with the 85% of the 12-year data set. The annual pollen sums have been higher during the 1990s than in the 1980s, which may explain the ineffectiveness of the model, while applied to the 20-year data set. Our results support the resource budget model: the masting of birch species is regulated by weather factors together with the system of resource allocation among years. The model can serve pollen information service. However, only the 10 most recent years should be used to avoid interference from trends in changing vegetation and/or climate.     

Diverging growth and resilience of Pinus tabulaeformis and Pinus massoniana to droughts in north-south transition zone,central China

Climate transition zone is a sensitive area of climate change and ecological transition where forests are vulnerable to climate extremes. Extreme droughts are increasing in frequency and magnitude under climate change, resulting in structure and function changes of forest ecosystems. Here, to analyze climate-growth relationships and quantify tree resilience to extreme droughts, we developed six tree-ring-width chronologies from P. tabulaeformis and P. massoniana sampling sites in Mt. Jigong region, Central China. The results indicated that all chronologies from the two species had good consistency, precipitation in current April and mean temperature in current August or mean minimum temperature from current August to October were the main limiting factors of the two tree species growth, but the responses of P. massoniana ring-width to climatic factors was more complex than that of P. tabulaeformis. The results also showed that tree growth of 1999–2005 was the lowest growing period during 1979–2018, and P. massoniana grew better than P. tabulaeformis before 2005 and vice versa after 2005. Comparing low growth years of trees, we identified to study tree growth resilience. The calculations from 1988, 1999–2005 and 2011 drought years indicated that P. tabulaeformis had more increased resilience to extreme droughts than that of P. massoniana, and the two species had stronger ecological recovery and resilience under global warming and non-extreme drought conditions in the recent 40 years. These results have implications for predicting tree resilience and identifying tree species in heterogeneous forest landscapes vulnerable to future climate change in climatic transition zone.     

Near term climate projections for invasive species distributions

Climate change and invasive species pose important conservation issues separately, and should be examined together. We used existing long term climate datasets for the US to project potential climate change into the future at a finer spatial and temporal resolution than the climate change scenarios generally available. These fine scale projections, along with new species distribution modeling techniques to forecast the potential extent of invasive species, can provide useful information to aide conservation and invasive species management efforts. We created habitat suitability maps for Pueraria montana (kudzu) under current climatic conditions and potential average conditions up to 30 years in the future. We examined how the potential distribution of this species will be affected by changing climate, and the management implications associated with these changes. Our models indicated that P. montana may increase its distribution particularly in the Northeast with climate change and may decrease in other areas.     

Comparison of climate change impacts on the growth of C3 and C4 crops in China

Global agricultural production has been significantly affected by climate change. As a large but also weak agricultural country, China must take corresponding adaptation measures in regard to climate change. As C3 and C4 crops have different carbon sequestration pathways, the responses of their growth to climate change are different. This study comprehensively compared the impacts of climate change on the growth of C3 and C4 crops in China by considering several key variables, such as solar radiation, temperature, precipitation, CO₂ concentration, and agro–climatic constraints. The WOFOST (WOrld FOod STudies) model was used to quantitatively simulate and analyze the impacts of these variables on crop yield under four different scenarios. The results show that 1) during the growth period, solar radiation had the most significant change, followed by temperature difference between day and night, daily minimum temperature, daily maximum temperature, and precipitation; 2) the growth indicators of both C3 and C4 crops were more strongly correlated with solar radiation and temperature; and 3) under the four scenarios, changes in temperature and solar radiation had negative effects on both C3 and C4 crops in most regions, and changes in CO₂ concentration had greater impacts on crop yields than other factors. This study revealed the temporal and spatial patterns of crop growth indicators under different climate change scenarios in the past 30 years, which provides a scientific basis for exploring how to adapt to climate change and provide higher levels of crop productivity in China.     

A foe in woe: American mink (Neovison vison) diet changes during a population decrease

The invasive American mink has been a component of Iceland's fauna since the 1930s. Hunting statistics indicate that until 2003 the population size was increasing, but thereafter decreased rapidly. The Icelandic marine environment has experienced various changes in recent years, including rising sea temperature and sand-eel collapse followed by seabird recruitment failure and population declines. Furthermore the arctic fox population has increased at least six-fold in the last three decades. Mink stomach content analysis in the period 2001–2009 revealed diet changes, and signs of reduced prey availability for this generalist predator, that were most significant in males. The most marked shift in composition was a decrease in consumption of birds. Our findings suggest that climate events, together with competition with increasing numbers of arctic foxes over terrestrial food, contributed to the sharp reduction in the mink population from 2004 and onwards. Despite their generalist behaviour, mink have apparently failed to respond fully to these environmental changes, and this susceptibility may benefit attempts to control their numbers. The results are relevant to the ability of top predators in general to cope with diverse ecosystem alterations triggered by climate change.     

Dendroclimatic analysis of Pinus peuce Griseb. at subalpine and treeline locations in Pirin Mountains,Bulgaria

Tree rings are a natural archive containing valuable information about environmental changes. Among the most sensitive ecosystems to such changes are high-mountain forests. Tree-ring series from such locations are exceptionally valuable both for climate reconstructions and for studying the effects of climate changes on forest ecosystems.The objective of our study is to present new long tree-ring width chronologies of Pinus peuce Griseb. from several locations at Pirin Mountains in southwestern Bulgaria, to explore their correlation with monthly temperatures and precipitation in the research area and to assess their potential for climate reconstruction.We built three long-term index chronologies for the radial increment of P. peuce from treeline locations in the study region. The longest chronology spans 675 years. We studied the impact of monthly air temperature and precipitation on its growth for the past 86 years using multiple regression analysis. Our analysis shows that P. peuce growth is positively influenced by high temperatures at the end of the previous growing season, especially at the two sites in Banderitsa valley until the middle of the 1970s, and negatively affected by cold winters. In some of the sample plots its growth was also positively correlated with high summer temperatures. However, even at these high altitudes in some of the locations on steep slopes P. peuce showed signs of negative impact of drought during the hottest summer months (especially in August).Our chronologies contribute to the paleoclimatic record for southwestern Bulgaria, which could provide baseline information about past climate variability and improve our understanding of current and future environmental changes.     

Surviving winter: diapause syndrome in the southern green stink bug Nezara viridula in the laboratory,in the field,and under climate change conditions

The southern green stink bug Nezara viridula (L.) (Heteroptera: Pentatomidae) has long attracted attention not only as a serious pest of numerous agricultural crops, but also as a species expanding its range in many parts of the world. Nezara viridula has also been widely used as a model in different experimental studies. The present review focuses on reproductive (i.e. adult) winter diapause, which is the pivotal element of the species' seasonal cycle. Results from numerous field experiments and observations, as well as laboratory ecophysiological investigations conducted during the few last decades, are analyzed and interpreted. Experimental findings are used to describe in detail the dynamics of physiological changes during overwintering. Reproductive diapause in N. viridula is controlled in both sexes by photoperiodic conditions. The induction of diapause is associated with a reversible change of body colour from green or yellow to russet (or brown). The proper timing of adult emergence and the induction of diapause, as well as the size of adults, is vitally important for successful overwintering. Nezara viridula has been shown to respond strongly to the current trend in climate change by shifting the limit of its northern range, particularly in central Japan. Analysis of historic climate data suggests that the environmental conditions during the last few decades have become more favourable for the overwintering survival of N. viridula in many locations in central Japan. This has likely promoted the northward spread of the species. The relationships between reproductive diapause, reversible body colour change, overwintering success and the recent range expansion are analyzed. Perspectives of the range dynamics of the species are discussed in light of further predicted climate change.     

Seasonality matters—The effects of past and projected seasonal climate change on the growth of native and exotic conifer species in Central Europe

Norway spruce is one of the economically most important tree species in Central European forestry. However, its high susceptibility to droughts poses a strong challenge to its cultivation under future conditions with likely more frequent and prolonged droughts and shifts in the seasonal climate. To compensate for expected losses of forest areas suitable for the cultivation of spruce, more drought-tolerant species are required. Silver fir and Douglas fir are two potential candidates, which promise lower drought susceptibility and equal or even higher yield when compared to Norway spruce.Using the Black Forest as a regional case study, we assessed the effects of seasonal climate change, including drought stress, on tree-ring width formation of these three economically relevant conifer species over the last 60 years. In addition, we projected potential species-specific growth changes under different climate change scenarios until 2100.Our results suggest that both silver fir and Douglas fir will possibly experience growth increases in a warmer future climate, as predicted under the 4.5 and 8.5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate change scenarios, whereas growth of spruce is expected to decline. Moreover, drought susceptibility in silver fir and Douglas fir is lower than in spruce, as shown for past drought events, and their ability to benefit from milder winters and springs could play a major role in their capacity to compensate for drier summers in the near to mid-term future. This study highlights the need to advance our understanding of the processes that drive drought resistance and resilience in tree species to guide management strategies in the face of climate change.     

A late Quaternary marine palynological record (oxygen isotope stages 1 to 7) for the humid tropics of northeastern Australia based on ODP Site 820

A late Quaternary marine palynological record from the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) site 820, adjacent to the humid tropics region of northeastern Australia, has demonstrated marked variation in orbital scale cyclicity, and also trends associated with both climate and human impact. However, some uncertainties in interpretation have resulted from concerns about the records chronology and continuity. Here we present, for the first time, the complete palynological data from detailed analysis of the top 67 m of sediment and examine it in relation to the marine isotope sequence from the core. It is proposed that the record is relatively continuous through the last 250,000 years although the latter part of oxygen isotope stage (OIS) 5, as well OIS 4 may be missing. Despite the variation on orbital scales, most palynological changes are not in phase with those from the marine isotope record suggesting a lack of direct Milankovitch forcing on vegetation. This lack of correspondence combined with major trends towards more open and sclerophyllous vegetation in association with increased burning supports a previous proposal that major control is being exercised by El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability whose influence may have been initiated by changes in oceanic circulation in the region within the mid Pleistocene. The lack of impact on the distribution of complex rainforest suggests that increased climate variability did not involve an overall decrease in total precipitation.     

Relative importance of long‐term changes in climate and land‐use on the phenology and abundance of legume crop specialist and generalist aphids

Abstract Insect populations are prone to respond to global changes through shifts in phenology, distribution and abundance. However, global changes cover several factors such as climate and land-use, the relative importance of these being largely unknown. Here, we aim at disentangling the effects of climate, land-use, and geographical drivers on aphid abundance and phenology in France, at a regional scale and over the last 40 years. We used aerial data obtained from suction traps between 1978 and 2015 on five aphid species varying in their degree of specialization to legumes, along with climate, legume crop area and geographical data. Effects of environmental and geographical variables on aphid annual abundance and spring migration dates were analyzed using generalized linear mixed models. We found that within the last four decades, aphids have advanced their spring migration by a month, mostly due to the increase in temperature early in the year, and their abundance decreased by half on average, presumably in response to a combination of factors. The influence of legume crop area decreased with the degree of specialization of the aphid species to such crops. The effect of geographical variation was high even when controlling for environmental variables, suggesting that many other spatially structured processes act on aphid population characteristics. Multifactorial analyses helped to partition the effects of different global change drivers. Climate and land-use changes have strong effects on aphid populations, with important implications for future agriculture. Additionally, trait-based response variation could have major consequences at the community scale.     

A review of indicators of climate change for use in Ireland

Impact indicators are systems/organisms, the vitality of which alters in response to changes in environmental condition. The indicators assessed in this review fall within the impact category of the driver-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) framework. Instrumental records have shown unequivocal changes in climatic conditions over the past 30 years at a global level but impact indicators allow these changes to be monitored at a finer resolution. Our main aim was to review sets of indicators of climate change currently used in various countries and to make recommendations for their use in the Irish environment. We review a preliminary set of climate change impact indicators in five sectors: agriculture; plant and animal distribution patterns; phenology; palaeoecology and human health. Currently, the most effective impact indicators of climate change have proved to be phenological observations of tree developmental stages. The strongest factor limiting the use of indicators is the lack of long-term data sets from which a climatic signal can be extracted.     

Climate change is the primary driver of white‐tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) range expansion at the northern extent of its range; land use is secondary

Quantifying the relative influence of multiple mechanisms driving recent range expansion of non‐native species is essential for predicting future changes and for informing adaptation and management plans to protect native species. White‐tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) have been expanding their range into the North American boreal forest over the last half of the 20th century. This has already altered predator–prey dynamics in Alberta, Canada, where the distribution likely reaches the northern extent of its continuous range. Although current white‐tailed deer distribution is explained by both climate and human land use, the influence each factor had on the observed range expansion would depend on the spatial and temporal pattern of these changes. Our objective was to quantify the relative importance of land use and climate change as drivers of white‐tailed deer range expansion and to predict decadal changes in white‐tailed deer distribution in northern Alberta for the first half of the 21st century. An existing species distribution model was used to predict past decadal distributions of white‐tailed deer which were validated using independent data. The effects of climate and land use change were isolated by comparing predictions under theoretical “no‐change between decades” scenarios, for each factor, to predictions under observed climate and land use change. Climate changes led to more than 88%, by area, of the increases in probability of white‐tailed deer presence across all decades. The distribution is predicted to extend 100 km further north across the northeastern Alberta boreal forest as climate continues to change over the first half of the 21st century.     

Responses of Terrestrial Antarctic Ecosystems to Climate Change

Antarctic terrestrial biota are generally limited by the inexorably linked environmental factors of low summer temperature and lack of available water. However, in parts of the Antarctic, both these factors are changing rapidly on contemporary timescales. Terrestrial biota have concurrently been faced with changes in the timing of UV-B maxima associated with spring ozone depletion. The region of the Antarctic Peninsula and Scotia Arc has experienced one of the most rapid rates of environmental warming seen worldwide over the last 30–50 years. Together with local changes in precipitation, this has resulted in a rapid reduction in extent and thinning of many ice-fields and glaciers, exposing new terrain for colonisation while, at the same time, altering patterns of water availability in terrestrial habitats. The rapid development of communities on newly-exposed ground is also facilitated by the existence of soil propagule banks, which contain propagules of both local and exotic origin. In this paper we collate and review evidence from a range of observational and manipulative studies that investigate the effect of climate change, especially increased temperature, on the processes of colonisation and subsequent community development by plants in the Antarctic. Biological changes that have been associated with climate change are visible in the form of expansions in range and local population numbers amongst elements of the flora. Environmental manipulation experiments further demonstrate the possibility of large and rapid species and community responses to climate amelioration, with many resident biota responding positively, at least in the absence of increased competition from exotic colonists. Manipulation studies are also starting to elucidate more subtle responses to climate changes, at levels ranging from cell biochemistry to habitat and food web structure. Integrating such subtle responses is vital to improving our ability to understand the consequences of climate change, as these may lead to much greater consequential impacts on communities and ecosystems.      

Tectonics, orbital forcing, global climate change, and human evolution in Africa: introduction to the African paleoclimate special volume

The late Cenozoic climate of Africa is a critical component for understanding human evolution. African climate is controlled by major tectonic changes, global climate transitions, and local variations in orbital forcing. We introduce the special African Paleoclimate Issue of the Journal of Human Evolution by providing a background for and synthesis of the latest work relating to the environmental context for human evolution. Records presented in this special issue suggest that the regional tectonics, appearance of C(4) plants in East Africa, and late Cenozoic global cooling combined to produce a long-term drying trend in East Africa. Of particular importance is the uplift associated with the East African Rift Valley formation, which altered wind flow patterns from a more zonal to more meridinal direction. Results in this volume suggest a marked difference in the climate history of southern and eastern Africa, though both are clearly influenced by the major global climate thresholds crossed in the last 3 million years. Papers in this volume present lake, speleothem, and marine paleoclimate records showing that the East African long-term drying trend is punctuated by episodes of short, alternating periods of extreme wetness and aridity. These periods of extreme climate variability are characterized by the precession-forced appearance and disappearance of large, deep lakes in the East African Rift Valley and paralleled by low and high wind-driven dust loads reaching the adjacent ocean basins. Dating of these records show that over the last 3 million years such periods only occur at the times of major global climatic transitions, such as the intensification of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation (2.7-2.5 Ma), intensification of the Walker Circulation (1.9-1.7 Ma), and the Mid-Pleistocene Revolution (1-0.7 Ma). Authors in this volume suggest this onset occurs as high latitude forcing in both Hemispheres compresses the Intertropical Convergence Zone so that East Africa becomes locally sensitive to precessional forcing, resulting in rapid shifts from wet to dry conditions. These periods of extreme climate variability may have provided a catalyst for evolutionary change and driven key speciation and dispersal events amongst mammals and hominins in Africa. In particular, hominin species seem to differentially originate and go extinct during periods of extreme climate variability. Results presented in this volume may represent the basis of a new theory of early human evolution in Africa.     

Traditional Climatic Knowledge: Orchardists' perceptions of and adaptation to climate change in the Campania region (Southern Italy)

Climate change is projected to have severe changes in the Mediterranean area, however, few studies have investigated environmental resource managers’ perceptions and adaptations to climatic change in the area. Our research investigates the use of orchardists' observations for bioindicating climate variations and of their experience for defining possible coping and adaptation strategies. Interviews were conducted with orchardists cultivating apple orchards for at least 30 years in the Campania region (southern Italy) to obtain observations on climate, which were then compared with climate data analyses. Orchardists reported a more unpredictable seasonality and shifting climate conditions, perceived as beginning 20–30 years ago. Climate data analysis seems to corroborate orchardists' perceptions. Traditional Ecological Knowledge specifically addressed to climate and weather is here defined as Traditional Climatic Knowledge (TCK). TCK is a key factor in environmental management.