Oscillations in large mammal populations: are they related to predation or rainfall?

Cyclic population dynamics is relatively common among populations of small mammals in high latitudes but is not yet established among African savanna ungulates. However, oscillations may be expected in large mammal populations subject to quasi‐periodic oscillations in regional rainfall. We evaluated evidence for environmentally entrained oscillations in a large‐mammal predator–prey system in Kruger National Park (KNP), South Africa, where rainfall exhibits quasi‐periodic oscillations. The evaluation is based on analysis of comparative changes in the abundance of twelve ungulate species throughout South Africa's KNP using population counts over the period 1965–1996. We present evidence suggesting that (i) twelve ungulate populations display cyclic variability with half‐periods ranging between 10 and 18 years, (ii) this variability was associated with lagged rainfall between 3 and 10 years back in the past for different ungulate species, and (iii) the ungulate species respond in contrasting ways to rainfall, with some reaching highest abundance during periods of low rainfall and others under conditions of high rainfall. These findings are not consistent with the response pattern we would expect if the population oscillations were driven directly by the rainfall influence on food availability. Instead they seem to be an outcome of predator–prey interactions, which are entrained by the effect of rainfall on habitat conditions affecting the relative susceptibility of the different ungulate species to predation.     

Driven to the edge: Species distribution modeling of a Clawed Salamander (Hynobiidae: Onychodactylus koreanus) predicts range shifts and drastic decrease of suitable habitats in response to climate change

Climate change is one of the major threats to global amphibian diversity, and consequently, the species distribution is expected to shift considerably in the future. Therefore, predicting such shifts is important to guide conservation and management plans. Here, we used eight independent environmental variables and four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) to model the current and future habitat suitability of the Korean clawed salamander (Onychodactylus koreanus) and then defined the dispersal limits of the species using cost distance analysis. The current habitat suitability model generated using the maximum entropy algorithm was highly consistent with the known distribution of the species and had good predictive performance. Projections onto years 2050 and 2070 predicted a drastic decrease of habitat suitability across all RCPs, with up to 90.1% decrease of suitable area and 98.0% decrease of optimal area predicted from binary presence grids. The models also predicted a northeastward shift of habitat suitability toward high‐elevation areas and a persistence of suitability along the central ridge of the Baekdudaegan Range. This area is likely to become a climatic refugium for the species in the future, and it should be considered as an area of conservation priority. Therefore, we urge further ecological studies and population monitoring to be conducted across the range of O. koreanus. The vulnerability to rapid climate change is also shared by other congeneric species, and assessing the impacts of climate change on these other species is needed to better conserve this unique lineage of salamanders.     

Characteristics of black rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis) bedding sites

Black rhino numbers have decreased greatly since the early 1970s, primarily as a result of poaching. A recent strategy to protect rhinos in Kenya has been to establish fenced sanctuaries. This has increased the rhino population and that of other species, but problems have emerged because of limited dispersal and rising animal densities. Unfortunately, how rhino utilize habitat, especially areas called bedding sites, is not well understood. These areas provide shade and may be a critical component of rhino habitat. We measured habitat variables at bedding sites located in bedding plots and compared them with control plots at Sweetwaters Reserve, Kenya. Euclea divinorum was the most common tree in the bedding site comprising 64.3% of the vegetation. Elephant dung was significantly more likely to be found in bedding plots than in control plots which suggests that elephants and rhinos use overlapping habitats. Elephants may be causing damage to the tree species that are important for bedding sites. Resource competition between large herbivores in small reserves is likely to negatively affect the tree species. Black rhino habitat, particularly bedding sites, may be at risk and rhino numbers may decrease.     

Primate DNA suggests long‐term stability of an African rainforest

Red colobus monkeys, due to their sensitivity to environmental change, are indicator species of the overall health of their tropical rainforest habitats. As a result of habitat loss and overhunting, they are among the most endangered primates in the world, with very few viable populations remaining. Traditionally, extant indicator species have been used to signify the conditions of their current habitats, but they have also been employed to track past environmental conditions by detecting previous population fluctuations. Kibale National Park (KNP) in Uganda harbors the only remaining unthreatened large population of red colobus. We used microsatellite DNA to evaluate the historical demography of these red colobus and, therefore, the long‐term stability of their habitat. We find that the red colobus population throughout KNP has been stable for at least ~40,000 years. We interpret this result as evidence of long‐term forest stability because a change in the available habitat or population movement would have elicited a corresponding change in population size. We conclude that the forest of what is now Kibale National Park may have served as a Late Pleistocene refuge for many East African species.     

Rare long-distance dispersal of the Island Night Lizard, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Xantusia riversiana</Emphasis>, maintains high diversity in a fragmented environment

The Island Night Lizard (Xantusia riversiana) is endemic to three of the Channel Islands off the coast of California, USA. Introduced species such as goats, sheep, and cats have profoundly affected the fauna and flora of the islands for over 150 years, but most of these non-native species have been recently removed. We measured the distribution of genetic diversity in Island Night Lizards across San Nicolas Island using DNA microsatellites to assess the impacts of historical habitat change on effective population size, gene flow, and population divergence; to provide baseline data for future monitoring of genetic diversity; and to provide recommendations to inform the restoration of degraded habitat. Despite a history of profound anthropogenic habitat disturbance, genetic diversity was high within sites, and there was no evidence of population bottlenecks. Divergence between sites was extraordinarily high, as expected for this sedentary species. Landscape resistance modeling using circuit theory showed that unsuitable habitat is relatively permeable to gene flow compared to suitable habitat, and yet populations separated by very short geographic distances remain genetically distinct. We found no evidence of a need for short-term intervention such as artificial translocations to maintain genetic diversity. Instead, we suggest that management should focus on maintaining, improving, and increasing habitat, especially in creating patches of habitat to link existing sites.     

Conducting animal censuses amongst abrupt topography; a GIS‐based alternative to Distance

Management often bases decisions on estimates of animal density and population size. Aerial sampling is expensive whilst current ground methods, noticeably Distance sampling, assume a single detection function for each habitat and that visibility in a given habitat type declines in a smooth, increasing manner with distance from the observer. If the visibility within a habitat varies widely or is suddenly cut off, as amongst abrupt topography, these assumptions are invalidated. We present an affordable, accessible and accurate method for conducting repeated annual censuses on large herbivores in such terrain. We used a GIS habitat‐based approach. Monthly, over a two year period, we conducted repeated road transects in Ithala Game Reserve, South Africa, using GPS to record the geographic position of each sighting. These records (n = 8742) were then imported into a GIS and overlaid onto an existing habitat‐type GIS layer. With the sampled area thus defined as an irregular polygon in the GIS encompassing all records, we calculated densities of each herbivore species by habitat type and extrapolated total population size estimates. Estimates of maximum population size for wildebeest and zebra correlated (±15%) with management's estimates based on aerial surveys, walked transects and experience. White rhino are individually counted in the reserve and our estimates (year 1: 52; year 2: 57) matched these known numbers (year 1: 50; year 2: 53). Our method also yielded realistic numbers for impala, but unrealistic numbers for kudu and warthog. Our GIS‐based census technique produced realistic maximum population estimates for abundant grazing and mixed‐feeder mesoherbivores and for scarce, but highly visible, megaherbivores, but not for cryptic species. With the increasing availability of GIS data, the technique is recommended to those working in abrupt terrain frustrated by the inability of current ground census techniques, principally Distance sampling, to produce realistic population estimates.     

The effects of habitat and competitive/facilitative interactions on reintroduction success of the endangered wetland herb,Arenaria paludicola

Establishing new populations is essential for preventing the extinction of critically endangered plant species. However, defining the range of environmental conditions suitable for the most severely endangered species is challenging, since few wild populations remain for study. Experimental reintroductions of these species can achieve multiple conservation goals by improving our understanding of habitat and management requirements while simultaneously establishing new populations. We demonstrate this with Arenaria paludicola, a critically endangered wetland plant species now known from a single wild population in coastal California. Before transplanting, we tested salinity tolerance in the greenhouse, and found tolerance of a broader range of soils than expected based on the current distribution. We then transplanted A. paludicola in three different habitat types, with and without neighbor removal. Success of A. paludicola transplants differed dramatically between the three habitat types, indicating the importance of variation at the habitat and microhabitat level. The best practices for transplant management are context-dependent: neighbor removal may promote the growth of A. paludicola, but neighbors may also facilitate transplant establishment in unstable substrates. After one year, A. paludicola continued to thrive in habitats dominated by Oenanthe sarmentosa with open canopies and moist soil. This habitat differs from that of the remaining wild population. Our discovery of an additional habitat type suitable for A. paludicola will allow more effective selection of future transplant sites.     

Elephant (Loxodonta africana) Home Ranges in Sabi Sand Reserve and Kruger National Park: A Five-Year Satellite Tracking Study

During a five-year GPS satellite tracking study in Sabi Sand Reserve (SSR) and Kruger National Park (KNP) we monitored the daily movements of an elephant cow (Loxodonta africana) from September 2003 to August 2008. The study animal was confirmed to be part of a group of seven elephants therefore her position is representative of the matriarchal group. We found that the study animal did not use habitat randomly and confirmed strong seasonal fidelity to its summer and winter five-year home ranges. The cow''s summer home range was in KNP in an area more than four times that of her SSR winter home range. She exhibited clear park habitation with up to three visits per year travelling via a well-defined northern or southern corridor. There was a positive correlation between the daily distance the elephant walked and minimum daily temperature and the elephant was significantly closer to rivers and artificial waterholes than would be expected if it were moving randomly in KNP and SSR. Transect lines established through the home ranges were surveyed to further understand the fine scale of the landscape and vegetation representative of the home ranges.     

Population genetic structure and connectivity in the endangered Ethiopian mountain Nyala (Tragelaphus buxtoni): recommending dispersal corridors for future conservation

Habitat fragmentation is an increasing threat to wildlife species across the globe and it has been predicted that future biodiversity will decrease rapidly without the intervention of scientifically-based management. In this study we have applied a landscape genetics approach to suggest a network design that will maintain connectivity among populations of the endangered mountain Nyala (Tragelaphus buxtoni) in the fragmented highlands of Ethiopia. DNA was obtained non-invasively from 328 individuals and genetic population structure and gene flow were estimated using 12 microsatellite markers. In addition, a 475-bp segment of the mitochondrial control region was sequenced for 132 individuals. Potential dispersal corridors were determined from least-cost path analysis based on a habitat suitability map. The genetic data indicated limited gene flow between the sampled mountain Nyala populations of the Bale Massif and the Arsi Massif. The genetic differentiation observed among five sampling areas of the Bale Massif followed a pattern of isolation by distance. We detected no impact of habitat resistance on the gene flow. In the future, however, the current expanding human population in the highlands of Ethiopia may reduce the current mountain Nyala habitat and further limit migration. Hence, maintaining habitat connectivity and facilitating survival of stepping-stone populations will be important for the future conservation of the species. The approach used here may also be useful for the study and conservation of other wildlife species inhabiting areas of increasing human encroachment.     

Estimating the population size of an endangered shorebird, the Madagascar plover, using a habitat suitability model

The Madagascar plover Charadrius thoracicus is a shorebird endemic to western Madagascar, currently classified as globally vulnerable. It is restricted to specialized wetland habitats that are increasingly threatened by humans. To inform future conservation measures for this poorly known species, we develop a predictive habitat suitability map and use this map to estimate the size of the Madagascar plover population. We integrate spatially referenced presence-only observations of Madagascar plovers with Landsat data, elevation data and measures of distance to settlements and the coast to produce a habitat suitability model using ecological niche factor analysis. Validation of this model using a receiver operating characteristic plot suggests that it is at least 84% accurate in predicting suitable sites. We then use our estimate of total area of suitable habitat above a critical suitability threshold and data on Madagascar plover density in suitable sites to estimate the total population size to derive a total population estimate of 3100±396 standard error individuals. Finally, we explore the conservation applications of our model.     

Differentiating geological fertility derived vegetation zones in Kruger National Park,South Africa,using Landsat and MODIS imagery

Spatial technologies present possibilities for producing frequently updated and accurate habitat maps, which are important in biodiversity conservation. Assemblages of vegetation are equivalent to habitats. This study examined the use of satellite imagery in vegetation differentiation in South Africa's Kruger National Park (KNP). A vegetation classification scheme based on dominant tree species but also related to the park's geology was tested, the geology generally consisting of high and low fertility lithology. Currently available multispectral satellite imagery is broadly either of high spatial but low temporal resolution or low spatial but high temporal resolution. Landsat TM/ETM+ and MODIS images were used to represent these broad categories. Rain season dates were selected as the period when discrimination between key habitats in KNP is most likely to be successful. Principal Component Analysis enhanced vegetated areas on the Landsat images, while NDVI vegetation enhancement was employed on the MODIS image. The images were classified into six field sampling derived classes depicting a vegetation density and phenology gradient, with high (about 89%) indicative classification accuracy. The results indicate that, using image processing procedures that enhance vegetation density, image classification can be used to map the park's vegetation at the high versus low geological fertility zone level, to accuracies above 80% on high spatial resolution imagery and slightly lower accuracy on lower spatial resolution imagery. Rainfall just prior to the image date influences herbaceous vegetation and, therefore, success at image scene vegetation mapping, while cloud cover limits image availability. Small scale habitat differentiation using multispectral satellite imagery for large protected savanna areas appears feasible, indicating the potential for use of remote sensing in savanna habitat monitoring. However, factors affecting successful habitat mapping need to be considered. Therefore, adoption of remote sensing in vegetation mapping and monitoring for large protected savanna areas merits consideration by conservation agencies.     

Alpine marmot (Marmota marmota) distribution evolution under climate change: The use of species distribution models at a local scale in the western Pyrenees massif (France)

The Alpine marmot (Marmota marmota) is a social mammal living in mountainous grassland areas and has the particularity to hibernate in winter. Recent studies on a population in the French Alps found that climate change is affecting Alpine marmot population dynamics and might impact their overall distribution in the future. Using Species Distribution Models (SDMs), the effect of climate change on Alpine marmot's future distribution was investigated at a local scale, in the western part of the Pyrenean massif (New-Aquitaine region, France). This scale was chosen as an appropriate action scale for the conservation strategy for the species. Three climatic scenarios were used (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5) over three future 30-year periods (2021–2050, 2040–2070, 2071–2100) to predict the short- to long-term potential distribution of the target species. The results are consistent with naturalistic knowledge of the species´ ecological needs in terms of variable importance and response type. Mean maximum temperature in winter, standard-deviation of daily temperature in winter, along with the median rainfall amount in summer were the three most important climatic variables. Predictions under the two most pessimistic climate scenarios showed potential large habitat loss. In the long term, for RCP 4.5, an estimated habitat loss of 18% was predicted. In the case of RCP 8.5, a higher impact was predicted, with a 54% habitat loss. Our results show that high impact due to climate change can be expected at a long term. In addition, if winter climatic conditions are important for marmot survival through hibernation, drought in summer might be one of the drivers of future population dynamic and distribution. Our findings can be applied for other species living in grassland mountainous environments and for which access to food resources in summer is essential, facilitating the conservation of target areas.     

Small rodents in the shrub tundra of Yamal (Russia): Density dependence in habitat use?

Northern small rodents are well known for their population cycles which represent a key process for the functioning of arctic and boreal ecosystems. Habitat use often changes in the course of the cycle. Higher densities can either lead to spill-over into secondary habitats or to increased habitat specificity because of interspecific competition. Here we investigate whether voles in the shrub tundra of southern Yamal exhibit density dependent habitat use. Voles were trapped at the Erkuta Tundra Monitoring Site (N 68.2°, E 69.2°) in three characteristic habitats over five years covering all phases of the population cycle. Our analyses focused on the two most numerous species Microtus gregalis (52% of individuals caught) and M. middendorffii (36%). A small-scale spill-over effect was observed for M. gregalis, which increasingly used the open habitat adjacent to their preferred willow thickets at high abundance. At a larger scale no such effect was observed for the two Microtus species – a result which is explained by the overall moderate densities of voles and the large spatial extent of the primary habitat of M. middendorffii: moist moss dwarf shrub tundra.     

Demographic history and the low genetic diversity in Dipteryx alata (Fabaceae) from Brazilian Neotropical savannas

Genetic effects of habitat fragmentation may be undetectable because they are generally a recent event in evolutionary time or because of confounding effects such as historical bottlenecks and historical changes in species'' distribution. To assess the effects of demographic history on the genetic diversity and population structure in the Neotropical tree Dipteryx alata (Fabaceae), we used coalescence analyses coupled with ecological niche modeling to hindcast its distribution over the last 21 000 years. Twenty-five populations (644 individuals) were sampled and all individuals were genotyped using eight microsatellite loci. All populations presented low allelic richness and genetic diversity. The estimated effective population size was small in all populations and gene flow was negligible among most. We also found a significant signal of demographic reduction in most cases. Genetic differentiation among populations was significantly correlated with geographical distance. Allelic richness showed a spatial cline pattern in relation to the species'' paleodistribution 21 kyr BP (thousand years before present), as expected under a range expansion model. Our results show strong evidences that genetic diversity in D. alata is the outcome of the historical changes in species distribution during the late Pleistocene. Because of this historically low effective population size and the low genetic diversity, recent fragmentation of the Cerrado biome may increase population differentiation, causing population decline and compromising long-term persistence.     

The impact of climate change on the future geographical distribution range of the endemic relict tree Gleditsia caspica (Fabaceae) in Hyrcanian forests

The Caspian locust (Gleditsia caspica) is an endemic relict tree that occurs in Hyrcanian forests. Many of its habitats have been destroyed in the last half-century. This study was performed to map past geographic distributions and estimate the suitable areas and potential risks of remaining populations under future climate change. Eight bioclimatic scenarios (one with current conditions, three with future climates, and four with past conditions) were tested using the maximum entropy algorithm. The most significant factors influencing the distributions of G. caspica were precipitation in the driest month and temperature seasonality. Even under the most optimistic model (RCP2.6), many stands of G. caspica may become endangered in the eastern and central parts of the range, and the distribution of this species will probably shift to the west of the Hyrcanian forest area. Considering the increasing destruction of habitats of this species due to human activities and the expected negative effects of climate change in the future, it is recommended that nature reserves be established to protect the habitat of G. caspica. Additionally, ex situ conservation strategies, such as storing seeds using cryopreservation techniques, can ensure the long-term survival of this species in the future.     

Prey availability and intraguild competition regulate the spatiotemporal dynamics of a modified large carnivore guild

Effective conservation management requires an understanding of the spatiotemporal dynamics driving large carnivore density and resource partitioning. In African ecosystems, reduced prey populations and the loss of competing guild members, most notably lion (Panthera leo), are expected to increase the levels of competition between remaining carnivores. Consequently, intraguild relationships can be altered, potentially increasing the risk of further population decline. Kasungu National Park (KNP), Malawi, is an example of a conservation area that has experienced large‐scale reductions in both carnivore and prey populations, leaving a resident large carnivore guild consisting of only leopard (Panthera pardus) and spotted hyena (Crocuta crocuta). Here, we quantify the spatiotemporal dynamics of these two species and their degree of association, using a combination of co‐detection modeling, time‐to‐event analyses, and temporal activity patterns from camera trap data. The detection of leopard and spotted hyena was significantly associated with the detection of preferred prey and competing carnivores, increasing the likelihood of species interaction. Temporal analyses revealed sex‐specific differences in temporal activity, with female leopard activity patterns significantly different to those of spotted hyena and male conspecifics. Heightened risk of interaction with interspecific competitors and male conspecifics may have resulted in female leopards adopting temporal avoidance strategies to facilitate coexistence. Female leopard behavioral adaptations increased overall activity levels and diurnal activity rates, with potential consequences for overall fitness and exposure to sources of mortality. As both species are currently found at low densities in KNP, increased risk of competitive interactions, which infer a reduction in fitness, could have significant implications for large carnivore demographics. The protection of remaining prey populations is necessary to mitigate interspecific competition and avoid further alterations to the large carnivore guild.     

A study on the postrelease behaviour and habitat preferences of black rhinos (Diceros bicornis) reintroduced into a fenced reserve in Namibia

Translocations and reintroductions are key elements for the population management of the critically endangered black rhino (Diceros bicornis, Linnaeus, 1758). In this study, we investigated the postrelease behaviour and habitat preferences of a black rhino starter group (n = 4) on the individual level. The animals were reintroduced to a fenced game reserve (87 km²) in North‐Central Namibia 1 year prior to our study. We used camera traps and very high frequency (VHF) radiotelemetry to examine the animals' temporal and spatial behaviour over a period of 4 months at transition between wet and dry seasons. Our results underline a peak in drinking activity and waterhole visits occurring between 7 p.m. and 8 p.m. We found a shift in intensity in drinking activity during the period of the study. Satellite‐based woody cover estimations only suggest positive correlations between the density of woody cover and favoured black rhino habitat types. Although the area seems suitable to facilitate breeding success of this starter group, it does not support a self‐sustaining population. However, black rhinos were already successfully reintroduced to several additional fenced reserves in this region. The selective opening of fences in the future could help to enable genetic exchange between currently isolated groups of rhinos.     

Modeling impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of three endemic Aloe species critically endangered in East Africa

Climate change has had a significant impact on natural ecosystems and endemic species around the world and substantial impacts are expected in the future. As a result, knowing how climate change affects endemic species can help in putting forward the necessary conservation efforts. The use of niche modeling to predict changes in species distributions under different climate change scenarios is becoming a hot topic in biological conservation. This study aimed to use the global circulation model (CMIP5) to model the current distribution of suitable habitat for three critically endangered Aloe species endemic to Kenya and Tanzania in order to determine the impact of climate change on their suitable habitat in the years 2050 and 2070. We used two representative concentration pathways scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) to project the contraction of suitable habitats for Aloe ballyi Reynolds, A. classenii Reynolds, and A. penduliflora Baker. Precipitation, temperature and environmental variables (Potential evapotranspiration, land cover, soil sedimentary and solar radiation) have had a significant impact on the current distribution of all the three species. Although suitable habitat expansion and contraction are predicted for all the species, loss of original suitable habitat is expected to be extensive. Climate change is expected to devastate >44% and 34% of the original habitats of A. ballyi and A. classenii respectively. Based on our findings, we propose that areas predicted to contract due to climate change should be designated as key protection zones for Aloe species conservation.     

Predicting the habitat usage of African black rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis) using random forest models

Species distribution models are often used in ecology to ascertain relationships between environmental variables and species presence. Modelling to understand this relationship can be used to aid conservation management strategies. In this paper, we applied the random forest classification method to predict habitat used by black rhino for browsing. The random forest model was created using detailed habitat data collected from Ol Pejeta Conservancy in Kenya. Variables from plots where rhino had been present were compared to those not used by rhino. Independent data were used to test the predictive accuracy of the rules generated. The model performed well with the independent test data, correctly classifying 69% of the sampling plots where black rhino were present. Important habitat features that affected rhino presence were browse availability and density of vegetation, with Vachellia drepanolobium (formerly Acacia) and Euclea divinorum being important components. The analysis also highlighted areas of potential high browse pressure, which should be the focus of continued monitoring and management.     

The Long‐term Impact of Timber Harvesting on the Resource Base of Chimpanzees in Kibale National Park,Uganda

Commercial timber harvesting results in the loss of critical habitat for tropical forest fauna, and large‐bodied frugivores (including chimpanzees and most other apes) may experience particularly detrimental effects. Few quantitative data, however, are available to evaluate the long‐term impact of harvesting on chimpanzees and other apes. In particular, few data are available to compare population demographics and/or forest composition before and after timber harvesting at the same site. Utilizing detailed forestry department records of logging operations conducted in the late 1960s, present‐day botanical surveys, and long‐term data on the feeding ecology of chimpanzees in Kibale National Park (KNP), Uganda, I examined the impact that logging has had on KNP chimpanzee communities of known size and demography. Although some important chimpanzee food resources were harvested in high abundance during commercial logging operations, the overall impact on the most predominant dietary items (those making up roughly 75% of the chimpanzees' diet) and on presumably critical subsistence resources was limited. Furthermore, the low density of chimpanzees inhabiting the logged region of KNP is apparently not attributable to the impact of logging at the site: comparisons of resource densities at this ‘low‐chimpanzee‐density’ site with that of an unlogged and ‘high‐chimpanzee‐density’ KNP site did not differ when logging concessions at the low‐chimpanzee‐density site were excluded from the analysis. This study suggests that low‐intensity logging can be compatible with the conservation of large‐bodied frugivores, provided that dietary data are taken into account in forest management planning.