Water relations and photosynthetic water use efficiency as indicators of slow climate change effects on trees in a tropical mountain forest in South Ecuador

The effects of an increasing moisture on trees of the tropical species-rich mountain rain forest in the South Ecuadorian Andes was investigated, using the daily total water consumption (TWC) and the instantaneous water use efficiency (WUE, ratio of photosynthetic CO₂ uptake per water loss by transpiration) as ecophysiological indicators. Two canopy and one sub-canopy tree species, (Vismia tomentosa, Clusiaceae, an as of yet unknown Lauracee, and Spirotheca rosea, Bombacaceae) were the experimental objects. Seasonal changes as well as a long-term (18 months) trend of increasing precipitation caused an inverse reaction of the TWC of the trees. Because of a rather unlimited water supply to the trees from a permanently high water content of the soil, transpiration followed mainly the atmospheric demand of water vapor, and increasing moisture hence reduced water loss by transpiration. It was hypothesized that in spite of the reduction in transpiratory water loss photosynthetic carbon acquisition would be not or less affected due to an increase in water use efficiency. Concomitant measurements of photosynthetic net CO₂ uptake showed the expected increase of WUE in V. tomentosa and S. rosea, but no clear reaction of the Lauracee. Accompanying measurements of stem extension growth confirmed an undiminished growth of V. tomentosa and S. rosea but showed also suspended growth of the Lauracee during the wettest months. While TWC can be continuously monitored with the heat dissipation technique, WUE is determined by leaf porometry in campaigns for which access to the canopy is required. Simultaneous recordings of the gas exchange of leaves at 4 different positions in the crown of one of the experimental trees (V. tomentosa) showed the usability of the trait WUE in combination with the total daily water consumption as indicator set for assessing the response of trees to a subtly changing climate. However, not all tree species appear as likewise useful indicator trees.     

Tree-rings,a key ecological indicator of environment and climate change

Due to wide spatial distribution, high annual resolution, calendar-exact dating, and high climate sensitivity, tree-rings play an important role in reconstructing past environment and climate change over the past millennium at regional, hemispheric or even global scales, so tree-rings can help us to better understand climate behaviour and its mechanisms in the past and then predict variation trends for the future. In this paper, we will review latest advances in tree-ring-based climate reconstructions in China and their applications in modelling past local/regional climate change, capturing historical climatic extreme events, as well as analyzing their link to large-scale climate patterns.     

Phenology of temperate trees in tropical climates

Several North American broad-leaved tree species range from the northern United States at 47°N to moist tropical montane forests in Mexico and Central America at 15–20°N. Along this gradient the average minimum temperatures of the coldest month (T _Jan), which characterize annual variation in temperature, increase from –10 to 12°C and tree phenology changes from deciduous to leaf-exchanging or evergreen in the southern range with a year-long growing season. Between 30 and 45°N, the time of bud break is highly correlated with T _Jan and bud break can be reliably predicted for the week in which mean minimum temperature rises to 7°C. Temperature-dependent deciduous phenology—and hence the validity of temperature-driven phenology models—terminates in southern North America near 30°N, where T _Jan>7°C enables growth of tropical trees and cultivation of frost-sensitive citrus fruits. In tropical climates most temperate broad-leaved species exchange old for new leaves within a few weeks in January-February, i.e., their phenology becomes similar to that of tropical leaf-exchanging species. Leaf buds of the southern ecotypes of these temperate species are therefore not winter-dormant and have no chilling requirement. As in many tropical trees, bud break of Celtis, Quercus and Fagus growing in warm climates is induced in early spring by increasing daylength. In tropical climates vegetative phenology is determined mainly by leaf longevity, seasonal variation in water stress and day length. As water stress during the dry season varies widely with soil water storage, climate-driven models cannot predict tree phenology in the tropics and tropical tree phenology does not constitute a useful indicator of global warming.     

Possible impacts of climate change on natural vegetation in Saxony (Germany)

Recent climate changes have had distinct impacts on plant development in many parts of the world. Higher air temperatures, mainly since the end of the 1980s, have led to advanced timing of phenological phases and consequently to an extension of the general growing season. For this reason it is interesting to know how plants will respond to future climate change. In this study simple phenological models have been developed to estimate the impact of climate change on the natural vegetation in Saxony. The estimations are based on a regional climate scenario for the state of Saxony. The results indicate that changes in the timing of phenophases could continue in the future. Due to distinct temperature changes in winter and in summer, mainly the spring and summer phases will be advanced. Spring phenophases, such as leafing or flowering, show the strongest trends. Depending on the species, the average timing of these phenophases could be advanced by 3–27 days by 2050. Phenophases in autumn show relatively small changes. Thus, the annual growth period of individual trees will be further extended, mainly because of the shift of spring phases. Frequent droughts in summer and in autumn can compensate for the earlier leafing of trees, because in this case leaf colouring and leaf fall would start some weeks earlier. In such cases, the growing period would not be really extended, but shifted to the beginning of the year.     

A review of indicators of climate change for use in Ireland

Impact indicators are systems/organisms, the vitality of which alters in response to changes in environmental condition. The indicators assessed in this review fall within the impact category of the driver-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) framework. Instrumental records have shown unequivocal changes in climatic conditions over the past 30 years at a global level but impact indicators allow these changes to be monitored at a finer resolution. Our main aim was to review sets of indicators of climate change currently used in various countries and to make recommendations for their use in the Irish environment. We review a preliminary set of climate change impact indicators in five sectors: agriculture; plant and animal distribution patterns; phenology; palaeoecology and human health. Currently, the most effective impact indicators of climate change have proved to be phenological observations of tree developmental stages. The strongest factor limiting the use of indicators is the lack of long-term data sets from which a climatic signal can be extracted.     

Deciduousness in a seasonal tropical forest in western Thailand: interannual and intraspecific variation in timing, duration and environmental cues

Seasonal tropical forests exhibit a great diversity of leaf exchange patterns. Within these forests variation in the timing and intensity of leaf exchange may occur within and among individual trees and species, as well as from year to year. Understanding what generates this diversity of phenological behaviour requires a mechanistic model that incorporates rate-limiting physiological conditions, environmental cues, and their interactions. In this study we examined long-term patterns of leaf flushing for a large proportion of the hundreds of tree species that co-occur in a seasonal tropical forest community in western Thailand. We used the data to examine community-wide variation in deciduousness and tested competing hypotheses regarding the timing and triggers of leaf flushing in seasonal tropical forests. We developed metrics to quantify the nature of deciduousness (its magnitude, timing and duration) and its variability among survey years and across a range of taxonomic levels. Tree species varied widely in the magnitude, duration, and variability of leaf loss within species and across years. The magnitude of deciduousness ranged from complete crown loss to no crown loss. Among species that lost most of their crown, the duration of deciduousness ranged from 2 to 21 weeks. The duration of deciduousness in the majority of species was considerably shorter than in neotropical forests with similar rainfall periodicity. While the timing of leaf flushing varied among species, most (∼70%) flushed during the dry season. Leaf flushing was associated with changes in photoperiod in some species and the timing of rainfall in other species. However, more than a third of species showed no clear association with either photoperiod or rainfall, despite the considerable length and depth of the dataset. Further progress in resolving the underlying internal and external mechanisms controlling leaf exchange will require targeting these species for detailed physiological and microclimatic studies.     

气候变化对鸟类影响的研究进展

气候变化对生物多样性的影响已成为热点问题.本文以鸟类为研究对象,根据鸟类受气候变化影响的最新研究成果,综述了气候变化对鸟类的分布、物候和种群等方面的影响.结果表明,在气候变化影响下,鸟类分布向高纬度或高海拔区移动,速度比以往加快,繁殖地和非繁殖地的分布移动变化并不相同,并且多数分布范围缩小,物候期发生复杂变化,种群数量下降明显.文章还讨论了该领域主要的预测和评估方法,以及进化适应等生物因素对气候变化预测结果的影响,除了以往单一的相关性模型外,目前应用最多的是集成模型,而未来最具发展潜力的是机理模型.进化适应方面的研究近来取得新进展,证实了生物个体积极应对气候变化影响的事实,从而对人为模型预测的准确性带来挑战.文章最后进行了总结和展望,结合国外研究经验和我国实际情况,提出一些建议:由于气候变化的影响及其研究是长期性的,从而对鸟类的历史监测数据提出很高的要求,当前我国急需建立一套长期、全面和可靠的鸟类数据监测系统;此外,人们需要综合评估现有各种预测模型的可靠性,在此基础上探索新的研究方法.     

Threats to mangroves from climate change and adaptation options: A review

Mangrove ecosystems are threatened by climate change. We review the state of knowledge of mangrove vulnerability and responses to predicted climate change and consider adaptation options. Based on available evidence, of all the climate change outcomes, relative sea-level rise may be the greatest threat to mangroves. Most mangrove sediment surface elevations are not keeping pace with sea-level rise, although longer term studies from a larger number of regions are needed. Rising sea-level will have the greatest impact on mangroves experiencing net lowering in sediment elevation, where there is limited area for landward migration. The Pacific Islands mangroves have been demonstrated to be at high risk of substantial reductions. There is less certainty over other climate change outcomes and mangrove responses. More research is needed on assessment methods and standard indicators of change in response to effects from climate change, while regional monitoring networks are needed to observe these responses to enable educated adaptation. Adaptation measures can offset anticipated mangrove losses and improve resistance and resilience to climate change. Coastal planning can adapt to facilitate mangrove migration with sea-level rise. Management of activities within the catchment that affect long-term trends in the mangrove sediment elevation, better management of other stressors on mangroves, rehabilitation of degraded mangrove areas, and increases in systems of strategically designed protected area networks that include mangroves and functionally linked ecosystems through representation, replication and refugia, are additional adaptation options.     

Species-specific climate sensitivity of tree growth in Central-West Germany

Growth responses to twentieth century climate variability of the three main European tree species Fagus sylvatica, Quercus petraea, and Pinus sylvestris within two temperate low mountain forest sites were analyzed, with particular emphasis on their dependence upon ecological factors and temporal stability in the obtained relationships. While site conditions in Central (~51°N, 9°E, KEL) and West (50.5°N, 6.5°E, EIF) Germany are similar, annual precipitation totals of ≅700 mm and ≅1,000 mm describe a maritime-continental gradient. Ring-width samples from 228 trees were collected and PCA used to identify common growth patterns. Chronologies were developed and redundancy analysis and simple correlation coefficients calculated to detect twentieth century temperature, precipitation, and drought fingerprints in the tree-ring data. Summer drought is the dominant driver of forest productivity, but regional and species-specific differences indicate more complex influences upon tree growth. F. sylvatica reveals the highest climate sensitivity, whereas Q. petraea is most drought tolerant. Drier growth conditions in KEL result in climate sensitivity of all species, and Q. petraea shifted from non-significant to significant drought sensitivity during recent decades at EIF. Drought sensitivity dynamics of all species vary over time. An increase of drought sensitivity in tree growth was found in the wetter forest area EIF, whereas a decrease occurred in the middle of the last century for all species in the drier KEL region. Species-specific and regional differences in long-term climate sensitivities, as evidenced by temporal variability in drought sensitivity, are potential indicators for a changing climate that effects Central-West German forest growth, but meanwhile hampers a general assessment of these effects.     

From observations to experiments in phenology research: investigating climate change impacts on trees and shrubs using dormant twigs

Background and Aims Climate change is advancing the leaf-out times of many plant species and mostly extending the growing season in temperate ecosystems. Laboratory experiments using twig cuttings from woody plant species present an affordable, easily replicated approach to investigate the relative importance of factors such as winter chilling, photoperiod, spring warming and frost tolerance on the leafing-out times of plant communities. This Viewpoint article demonstrates how the results of these experiments deepen our understanding beyond what is possible via analyses of remote sensing and field observation data, and can be used to improve climate change forecasts of shifts in phenology, ecosystem processes and ecological interactions.Scope The twig method involves cutting dormant twigs from trees, shrubs and vines on a single date or at intervals over the course of the winter and early spring, placing them in containers of water in controlled environments, and regularly recording leaf-out, flowering or other phenomena. Prior to or following leaf-out or flowering, twigs may be assigned to treatment groups for experiments involving temperature, photoperiod, frost, humidity and more. Recent studies using these methods have shown that winter chilling requirements and spring warming strongly affect leaf-out and flowering times of temperate trees and shrubs, whereas photoperiod requirements are less important than previously thought for most species. Invasive plant species have weaker winter chilling requirements than native species in temperate ecosystems, and species that leaf-out early in the season have greater frost tolerance than later leafing species.Conclusions This methodology could be extended to investigate additional drivers of leaf-out phenology, leaf senescence in the autumn, and other phenomena, and could be a useful tool for education and outreach. Additional ecosystems, such as boreal, southern hemisphere and sub-tropical forests, could also be investigated using dormant twigs to determine the drivers of leaf-out times and how these ecosystems will be affected by climate change.     

Long-term growth decline in Toona ciliata in a moist tropical forest in Bangladesh: Impact of global warming

Tropical forests are carbon rich ecosystems and small changes in tropical forest tree growth substantially influence the global carbon cycle. Forest monitoring studies report inconsistent growth changes in tropical forest trees over the past decades. Most of the studies highlighted changes in the forest level carbon gain, neglecting the species-specific growth changes which ultimately determine community-level responses. Tree-ring analysis can provide historical data on species-specific tree growth with annual resolution. Such studies are inadequate in Bangladesh, which is one of the most climate sensitive regions in the tropics. In this study, we investigated long-term growth rates of Toona ciliata in a moist tropical forest of Bangladesh by using tree-ring analysis. We sampled 50 trees of varying size, obtained increment cores from these trees and measured tree-ring width. Analyses of growth patterns revealed size-dependent growth increments. After correcting for the effect of tree size on tree growth (ontogenetic changes) by two different methods we found declining growth rates in T. ciliata from 1960 to 2013. Standardized ring-width index (RWI) was strongly negatively correlated with annual mean and maximum temperatures suggesting that rising temperature might cause the observed growth decline in T. ciliata. Assuming that global temperatures will rise at the current rate, the observed growth decline is assumed to continue. The analysis of stable carbon and oxygen isotopes may reveal more insight on the physiological response of this species to future climatic changes.     

西安4种落叶乔木物候期对气候变化的响应

以西安1979—2018年的气候资料和植物物候观测资料为基础,采用分段回归和趋势倾向率等方法,分析了毛白杨(Populus tomentosa)、杜梨(Pyrus betulifolia)、七叶树(Aesculus chinensis)和灯台树(Bothrocaryum controversum)4种落叶乔木展叶盛期和叶全变色期的生长趋势,使用偏相关分析探讨了气温、降水和日照时数与物候期的关系并通过偏最小二乘回归(Partial Least Squares, PLS)判断气候变量对物候期的综合影响。结果表明：(1)1979—2018年,4种乔木的生长季长度延长,整体表现为春季物候期提前,秋季物候期推迟;(2)展叶盛期物候指标与叶全变色期物候指标,转折均发生在1982年;转折后,物候特征变化显著,春季物候的提前速率和秋季物候的推迟速率加快,展叶盛期平均提前3.8d/10a,叶全变色期平均推迟4.7d/10a;(3)展叶盛期与春季气温表现为极显著负相关,叶变色期与秋季气温表现为显著正相关;降水对植物物候的影响不显著;春季物候与日照时数呈现极显著负相关关系,秋季物候期与日照时数呈不显著正相关...     

A review on the potential effects of environmental and economic factors on sheep genetic diversity: Consequences of climate change

Climate change has a significant effect on the productivity of livestock including milk, meat, and reproduction. This could be attributed to the internal diversion of energy resources towards adaptive mechanisms. Among the climate change variables, thermal stress seems to be the major limiting factor in animal agriculture. A better understanding of the effects of climate change-influenced ecological factors on the genetic diversity of livestock species is warranted. Sheep is an ideal livestock species to be used in investigating environmental adaptation due to its wide range of agroecological habitats, genetic and phenotypic variability. There is a heavy reliance on sheep genetic diversity for future animal protein security, but the implications of climate change on their genetic diversity receive less attention.Here, the potential environmental factors influencing natural selection in sheep populations are presented. We argue that prolonged exposure to these factors plays a major role in influencing the development of adaptation traits in indigenous sheep breeds, consequently leading to the alteration of genetic diversity at specific loci. The factors discussed include hot temperatures (heat stress), insufficient water, low quantity and quality of forage, and prevalence of parasites, pests, and diseases. In addition, genetic diversity, some signatures of selection for adaptation and economic angles of selection are also briefly discussed.A better understanding of environmental factors influencing the genetic diversity of sheep populations will inform breeding and management programs and may offer an opportunity for greater production efficiency with low input costs.     

The potential effects of climate change on winter mortality in England and Wales

In Britain death rates from several important causes, particularly circulatory and respiratory diseases, rise markedly during the colder winter months. This close association between temperature and mortality suggests that climate change as a result of global warming may lead to a future reduction in excess winter deaths. This paper gives a brief introductory review of the literature on the links between cold conditions and health, and statistical models are subsequently developed of the associations between temperature and monthly mortality rates for the years 1968 to 1988 for England and Wales. Other factors, particularly the occurrence of influenza epidemics, are also taken into account. Highly significant negative associations were found between temperature and death rates from all causes and from chronic bronchitis, pneumonia, ischaemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease. The statistical models developed from this analysis were used to compare death rates for current conditions with those that might be expected to occur in a future warmer climate. The results indicate that the higher temperatures predicted for 2050 might result in nearly 9000 fewer winter deaths each year with the largest contribution being from mortality from ischaemic heart disease. However, these preliminary estimates might change when further research is able to make into account a number of additional factors affecting the relationship between mortality and climate.     

迁地保育植物花期物候对迁入地气候变化的响应

以中国科学院武汉植物园内栽培的长果秤锤树(Sinojackia dolichocarpa C. J. Qi)、山白树(Sinowilsonia henryi Hemsl.)、夏腊梅(Sinocalycanthus chinensis Cheng et S. Y. Chang)、紫茎(Stewartia sinensis Rehd. et Wils.)和绒毛皂荚(Gleditsia vestita Chun et How ex B. G. Li) 5种迁地保育植物为对象,通过2008-2016年观察记录的初花期物候及整个花期长度的数据,研究花期的年际变化规律及其与迁入地武汉气候因子的相关性。结果显示:(1)从初花期来看,长果秤锤树的初花期每年提前1.25 d,紫茎的初花期每年推迟1.35 d,绒毛皂荚的初花期每年推迟1.22 d。(2)从花期长度来看,山白树的花期每年增加1.72 d,夏蜡梅的花期每年减少1.62 d,紫茎的花期每年增加0.32 d。(3)从花期与气候因子的相关性来看,年降水量、年平均相对湿度、 10℃有效积温、花前 10℃的有效积温是影响这5种植物初花期、花期长度的主要气候因子;不同物种间影响花期的主要气候因子有所差异。     

Seed size and establishment conditions in tropical trees

Within a multi-species study, species do not necessarily represent independent data points. The data set used by Foster and Janson (1985) to look at the relationship between seed size and establishment conditions for naturally occurring tropical trees was re-analyzed, to take into account the effect of relatedness among species. The re-analysis showed that 1) this data set does not support the hypothesis that large-seeded species are more likely to establish in small gaps or shade than are small-seeded species, and 2) more than 1/3 (16 of 39) of the data points were extraneous to the test of the hypothesis. It is recommended that all ecologists, and not just those interested in evolutionary questions, consider species relatedness prior to inception of any multi-species study.     

Biomass change in an Atlantic tropical moist forest: the ENSO effect in permanent sample plots over a 22-year period

There are a number of controversies surrounding both biomass estimation and carbon balance in tropical forests. Here we use long-term (from 1978 through 2000) data from five 0.5-ha permanent sample plots (PSPs) within a large tract of relatively undisturbed Atlantic moist forest in southeastern Brazil to quantify the biomass increment (M_I), and change in total stand biomass (M_stand), from mortality, recruitment, and growth data for trees 10 cm diameter at breast height (DBH). Despite receiving an average of only 1,200 mm annual precipitation, total forests biomass (334.5±11.3 Mg ha^–1) was comparable to moist tropical forests with much greater precipitation. Over this relatively long-term study, forest biomass experienced rapid declines associated with El Niño events, followed by gradual biomass accumulation. Over short time intervals that overlook extreme events, these dynamics can be misinterpreted as net biomass accumulation. However for the 22 years of this study, there was a small reduction in forest biomass, averaging –1.2 Mg ha^–1 year^–1 (±3.1). Strong climatic disturbances can severely reduce forest biomass, and if the frequency and intensity of these events increases beyond historical averages, these changing disturbance regimes have the capacity to significantly reduce forest biomass, resulting in a net source of carbon to the atmosphere.     

The impact of wind on trees in Australian tropical savannas: lessons from Cyclone Monica

Abstract The role of tropical cyclones in structuring tropical rainforests has long been recognized in the Americas and northern Australia. However, their role in the dynamics of Australian savannas has received little attention compared with the effects of fire and drought. In April 2006, Tropical Cyclone Monica caused trees to be snapped or uprooted across a swath about 50 km wide and 130 km inland in northern Australia. The proportion of trees damaged was assessed using on‐ground surveys and interpretation of aerial photographs along the cyclone path and along several perpendicular transects. From these data, a relationship between the damage to trees and estimated maximum gust speed was developed. From knowledge of gust recurrence, curves were then derived describing the changes with distance inland in the average recurrence interval for tree windthrow events. These relationships were consistent with the historical record of tree damage in the northwest of the Northern Territory. It was concluded that windthrow has profound, but hitherto unrecognized implications for ecological processes such as tree dynamics and fluxes of carbon and water in Australian tropical savannas.     

气候变化与水稻生长发育及产量形成关系的模拟研究

应用水稻生长日历模拟模型(RICAM1.3)模拟亚洲地区不同地点和不同气候条件下水稻的生育期和产量形成.其中3s-Beta模型被用于预测水稻开花期和描述水稻光温反应的3个连续阶段:基本营养生长期、光敏感期和光敏感后期.从时间与地理梯度的变化对水稻产量进行模拟,以中国、日本和菲律宾作为从北到南的地理梯度,以20世纪80年代气候变化作为时间梯度,应用RICAM1.3进行模拟.结果表明,模型具有广泛的适应性,能较好地模拟不同气候条件和不同水稻品种生育期的变化与产量的形成.     

Terrestrial insects and climate change: adaptive responses in key traits

Understanding and predicting how adaptation will contribute to species' resilience to climate change will be paramount to successfully managing biodiversity for conservation, agriculture, and human health‐related purposes. Making predictions that capture how species will respond to climate change requires an understanding of how key traits and environmental drivers interact to shape fitness in a changing world. Current trait‐based models suggest that low‐ to mid‐latitude populations will be most at risk, although these models focus on upper thermal limits, which may not be the most important trait driving species' distributions and fitness under climate change. In this review, we discuss how different traits (stress, fitness and phenology) might contribute and interact to shape insect responses to climate change. We examine the potential for adaptive genetic and plastic responses in these key traits and show that, although there is evidence of range shifts and trait changes, explicit consideration of what underpins these changes, be that genetic or plastic responses, is largely missing. Despite little empirical evidence for adaptive shifts, incorporating adaptation into models of climate change resilience is essential for predicting how species will respond under climate change. We are making some headway, although more data are needed, especially from taxonomic groups outside of Drosophila, and across diverse geographical regions. Climate change responses are likely to be complex, and such complexity will be difficult to capture in laboratory experiments. Moving towards well designed field experiments would allow us to not only capture this complexity, but also study more diverse species.