Teleconnection between tree growth in the Amazonian floodplains and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation effect

There is a limited knowledge about the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects on the Amazon basin, the world's largest tropical rain forest and a major factor in the global carbon cycle. Seasonal precipitation in the Andean watershed annually causes a several month‐long inundation of the floodplains along the Amazon River that induces the formation of annual rings in trees of the flooded forests. Radial growth of trees is mainly restricted to the nonflooded period and thus the ring width corresponds to its duration. This allows the construction of a tree‐ring chronology of the long‐living hardwood species Piranhea trifoliata Baill. (Euphorbiaceae). El Niño causes anomalously low precipitation in the catchment that results in a significantly lower water discharge of the Amazon River and consequently in an extension of the vegetation period. In those years tree rings are significantly wider. Thus the tree‐ring record can be considered as a robust indicator reflecting the mean climate conditions of the whole Western Amazon basin. We present a more than 200‐year long chronology, which is the first ENSO‐sensitive dendroclimatic proxy of the Amazon basin and permits the dating of preinstrumental El Niño events. Time series analyses of our data indicate that during the last two centuries the severity of El Niño increased significantly.     

Influences of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation on avian productivity in forests of the Pacific Northwest of North America

To model the effects of global climate phenomena on avian population dynamics, we must identify and quantify the spatial and temporal relationships between climate, weather and bird populations. Previous studies show that in Europe, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) influences winter and spring weather that in turn affects resident and migratory landbird species. Similarly, in North America, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) of the Pacific Ocean reportedly drives weather patterns that affect prey availability and population dynamics of landbird species which winter in the Caribbean. Here we show that ENSO‐ and NAO‐induced seasonal weather conditions differentially affect neotropical‐ and temperate‐wintering landbird species that breed in Pacific North‐west forests of North America. For neotropical species wintering in western Mexico, El Niño conditions correlate with cooler, wetter conditions prior to spring migration, and with high reproductive success the following summer. For temperate wintering species, springtime NAO indices correlate strongly with levels of forest defoliation by the larvae of two moth species and also with annual reproductive success, especially among species known to prey upon those larvae. Generalized linear models incorporating NAO indices and ENSO precipitation indices explain 50–90% of the annual variation in productivity reported for 10 landbird species. These results represent an important step towards spatially explicit modelling of avian population dynamics at regional scales.     

Fluctuations of Vanessa cardui butterfly abundance with El Niño and Pacific Decadal Oscillation climatic variables

Annual 4th of July Butterfly Count data spanning more than 20 years are examined to explore Vanessa cardui (Painted Lady) population fluctuations with ENSO (El Niño) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) indices. California, Colorado and Nebraska censuses exhibit a strong positive correlation with the strong El Niño events of 1982–1983 and 1997–1998 and the weaker event of 1991–1992. Regression analysis shows the population fluctuations are strongly coupled to climate variations on both short (El Niño) and longer (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) time scales. Recognizing the sensitivity to these time scales is important for predicting longer‐term global climate change effects.     

Human disturbance amplifies Amazonian El Niño–Southern Oscillation signal

The long‐term interaction between human activity and climate is subject to increasing scrutiny. Humans homogenize landscapes through deforestation, agriculture, and burning and thereby might reduce the capacity of landscapes to provide archives of climate change. Alternatively, land‐use change might overwhelm natural buffering and amplify latent climate signals, rendering them detectable. Here we examine a sub‐annually resolved sedimentary record from Lake Sauce in the western Amazonian lowlands that spans 6900 years. Finely‐laminated sediments were deposited from ca. 5000 years ago until the present, and human activity in the watershed was revealed through the presence of charcoal and maize agriculture. The laminations, analyzed for color content and bandwidth, showed distinctive changes that were coupled to more frequent occurrence of fossil maize pollen. As agricultural activity intensified ca. 2200 cal. BP, the 2‐ to 8‐year periodicity characteristic of El Niño–Southern Oscillation became evident in the record. These agricultural activities appeared to have amplified an existing, but subtle climatic signal that was previously absorbed by natural vegetation. When agricultural activity slowed, or land use around Lake Sauce changed at ca. 800 cal. BP, the signal of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity became erratic.     

La Niña's signature: synchronous decline of the mammal community in a 'protected' area in India

Mounting evidence indicates large-scale climatic phenomena such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can overwhelm endogenous factors that govern the population dynamics of wild species. We add to this evidence by documenting an ENSO-related decline of large mammals in the Kumbhalgarh Wildlife Sanctuary, in Rajasthan, India. This event coincided with the drought of 2000, following two consecutive monsoon failures. Time series of biennial counts (1991–2005) shared a common feature: all 13 species declined in abundance from 1999 to 2001, with 11 species experiencing an apparent decline exceeding 25%. An ENSO index explained much of the variability in population size, apparently reflecting mass mortality and/or recruitment failure caused by the major 1998–2000 La Niña event, followed by a rapid rebound. ENSO apparently overwhelmed endogenous factors and synchronized the dynamics of the mammalian community. Our findings may prove to be symptomatic of geographically broad impacts of large-scale climate on the dynamics of terrestrial vertebrate communities, even in protected areas. Our findings reinforce the growing recognition that we should not overlook global-scale causal agents of ecological change.     

Annual growth rings, rainfall-dependent growth and long-term growth patterns of tropical trees from the Caparo Forest Reserve in Venezuela

1 Tree-ring analyses and dendrometer measurements were carried out on 37 tree species in a semi-deciduous forest of the Reserva Forestal de Caparo, Venezuela, where the mean annual rainfall is about 1700 mm and there is a dry season from December to March. The main purposes of the investigation were to show the seasonality of cambial growth, and the connection between precipitation patterns and tree-ring curves. Long-term rates of wood increment were also estimated.
2 Cambial markings in consecutive years showed that annual rings were formed by many species.
3 The distinctiveness of growth zones was usually greater in deciduous species than in evergreen species, although not all deciduous species had distinct rings.
4 Dendrometer measurements showed that the annual growth rhythm was related to precipitation patterns. Evergreen species tended to show only a short interruption of wood growth (during the later part of the dry season), whereas deciduous species stopped growth completely at the end of the rainy season.
5 For deciduous species, regression analyses showed close relations between tree-ring width and the sum of precipitation outside the rainy seasons (i.e. November to April). Evergreen species reacted to the total annual amount of precipitation.
6 Variation in longest available ring chronology (for Terminalia guianensis ) showed little correlation with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation effect.
7 On average trees from natural forests showed relatively constant growth over the entire life span. Plantation trees grew fast up to an age of 15–20 years, but annual increments then decreased to values seen in natural forest trees.     

El Niño and tree growth near Jerusalem over the last 20 years

A strong correlation is observed between an El Niño index (anomalies in tropical Pacific sea surface temperature) and rainfall in the Judean foothills near Jerusalem over the past 20 years. These relationships clearly influenced the growth of local pine trees, as reflected in the width of their annual tree rings. The ability to predict El Niño events about a year in advance lend a special significance to relationships reported here for ecology, agriculture and water management in this climatic transition zone. To help explain the observed, long-range teleconnection we propose a possible mechanism based on a newly identified direct cloud connection between equatorial Africa (more directly affected by El Niño) and the Southeastern Mediterranean shoreland. The penetration and contribution of the moisture current from equatorial Africa to this region may depend on a shift in the usual rain generating moisture currents to southwesterly trajectories (passing over north Africa). The occurrence of such shifts is supported by the observed decrease in the mean ¹⁸O content of the local precipitation during El Nino winters.     

European green crabs (Carcinus maenas) in the northeastern Pacific: genetic evidence for high population connectivity and current-mediated expansion from a single introduced source population

Aim The European green crab (Carcinus maenas) expanded dramatically after its introduction to the west coast of North America, spreading over 1000 km in < 10 years. We use samples of Carcinus maenas collected over time and space to investigate the genetic patterns underlying the species’ initial establishment and spread, and discuss our findings in the context of the species’ life history characteristics and demography. Location The central west coast of North America, encompassing California, Oregon, and Washington (USA) and British Columbia (Canada). Methods We collected 1040 total samples from 21 sites representing the major episodes of population establishment and expansion along the west coast of North America. Microsatellite markers were used to assess genetic diversity and structure at different time points in the species’ spread, to investigate connectivity between embayments and to estimate both short‐term effective population sizes and the number of original founders. Assignment testing was performed to determine the likely source of the introduction. Results Carcinus maenas in western North America likely derived from a single introduction of a small number of founders to San Francisco Bay, CA from the east coast of North America. Throughout its western North American range, the species experiences periodic migration between embayments, resulting in a minor loss of genetic diversity in more recently established populations versus the populations in the area of initial establishment. Main conclusions Low genetic diversity has not precluded the ability of C. maenas to successfully establish and spread on the west coast of North America. An efficient oceanographic transport mechanism combined with highly conducive life history traits are likely the major drivers of C. maenas spread. Evidence for a single introduction underscores the potential utility of early detection and eradication of high‐risk invasive species.     

Upland Soil Charcoal in the Wet Tropical Forests of Central Guyana

A soil charcoal survey was undertaken across 60,000 ha of closed-canopy tropical forest in central Guyana to determine the occurrence, ubiquity, and age of past forest fires across a range of terra firme soil types. Samples were clustered around six centers consisting of spatially nested sample stations. Most charcoal was found between 40 and 60 cm depth with fewest samples yielding material at 0–20 cm depth. The first core yielded charcoal at most stations. Charcoal ages of a random subsample ranged from less than 200 YBP to 9500 YBP with a noticeable peak between 1000 and 1250 YBP. Results reinforce a view that most closed-canopy tropical forests in eastern Amazonia have been subject to palaeo-fire events of unknown severity with a peak in charcoal age consistently appearing between 1000 and 2000 YBP. The two samples dated to the early Holocene represent some of the oldest indicators of paleo-fire known from upland Neotropical forest soils. Ubiquitous soil charcoal in central Guyana further indicate both forest resilience to fire and the widespread propensity for regional forests to burn, particularly during anomalous periods of drought.     

El Niño-Southern Oscillation, rainfall, temperature and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index fluctuations in the Mara-Serengeti ecosystem

Understanding long-term climatic variability is basic to wise management and conservation of biodiversity. We analysed temporal variations in the local rainfall, temperature, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and the hemispheric El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), using the Southern Oscillation Index and how they co varied in the Mara-Serengeti ecosystem of Kenya and Tanzania. Local rainfall showed a striking temporal variability and an evident 5-year quasi-periodicity in the ecosystem. Severe droughts were a recurrent/persistent feature of the ecosystem but extreme floods were relatively infrequent. The timings of droughts and floods coincided with strong episodes in the activities of the ENSO phenomenon. Above-average rainfall often accompanied cold ENSO episodes and below-average rainfall warm ENSO events, contrary to past generalizations suggesting that warm ENSO events are only associated with above-average rainfall whereas cold ENSO events with below-average rainfall in equatorial East Africa. Both minimum and maximum temperatures were below-normal during cold ENSO episodes and above-normal during warm ENSO events. Rising temperatures and declining rainfall throughout the 1990s and early 2000s, with unprecedently prolonged and strong ENSO episodes, engendered progressive habitat desiccation and reduction in vegetation production in the ecosystem. This exacerbated the debilitating effects of adverse weather on local plant and animal communities, resulting in high mortalities of ungulates.     

Mass Coral Reef Bleaching: A Recent Outcome of Increased El Niño Activity?

Coral reefs are generally considered to be the most biologically productive of all marine ecosystems, but in recent times these vulnerable aquatic resources have been subject to unusual degradation. The general decline in reefs has been greatly accelerated by mass bleaching in which corals whiten en masse and often fail to recover. Empirical evidence indicates a coral reef bleaching cycle in which major bleaching episodes are synchronized with El Niño events that occur every 3–4 years on average. By heating vast areas of the Pacific Ocean, and affecting the Indian and Atlantic Oceans as well, El Niño causes widespread damage to reefs largely because corals are very sensitive to temperature changes. However, mass bleaching events were rarely observed before the 1970s and their abrupt appearance two decades ago remains an enigma. Here we propose a new explanation for the sudden occurrence of mass bleaching and show that it may be a response to the relative increase in El Niño experienced over the last two decades.     

Effects of El Niño Southern Oscillation on avian breeding phenology

Aim

Climate oscillations are known to influence the reproductive phenology of birds. Here, we quantify the effects of cyclic climatic variation, specifically El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), on birds that breed opportunistically. We aim to show how inter‐decadal climate fluctuations influence opportunistic breeding. This knowledge is essential for tracking the phenological responses of birds to climate change.

Location

Temperate and arid Australia.

Methods

We assessed variation in egg‐laying (start, peak, conclusion, length) during the three phases of ENSO (El Niño, La Niña and Neutral) for 64 temperate and 15 arid region species using ~80,000 observations. Linear mixed‐effect models and analysis of variance were used to (1) determine if, on average within each region, egg‐laying dates differed significantly among species between Neutral‐El Niño and Neutral‐La Niña phases, and (2) assess how La Niña and El Niño episodes influence egg‐laying in birds which breed early in the year.

Results

During La Niña phases, which are characterized by mild/wet conditions, most bird species in the temperate and arid regions exhibited longer egg‐laying periods relative to Neutral phases. However, there was substantial variation across species. This effect was strongly seasonal; species breeding in spring experienced the greatest increases in egg‐laying periods during La Niña. Further, we found only small differences in peak egg‐laying dates during Neutral and La Niña in the arid region; suggesting that hot temperatures may constrain breeding regardless of rainfall. The effects of El Niño on breeding phenology were not consistent in the temperate and arid regions and may be confounded by highly mobile species opportunistically moving and breeding with localized rainfall during dry periods.

Main conclusions

In both arid and temperate regions, increased rainfall associated with La Niña phases positively influences avian breeding, and likely recruitment. However, dry El Niño phases may not have the dramatic impacts on breeding phenology that are commonly assumed.

     

Modeling the effects of El Niño, density-dependence, and disturbance on harbor seal (Phoca vitulina) counts in Drakes Estero, California: 1997–2007

Harbor seal ( Phoca vitulina ) haul-out site use may be affected by natural or anthropogenic factors. Here, we use an 11-yr (1997–2007) study of a seal colony located near a mariculture operation in Drakes Estero, California, to test for natural (El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), density-dependence, long-term trends) and anthropogenic (disturbance or displacement related to oyster production activities) factors that may influence the use of haul-out subsites. Annual mariculture related seal disturbance rates increased significantly with increases in oyster harvest ( r _s= 0.55). Using generalized linear models (GLMs) ranked by best fit and Akaike's Information Criteria, ENSO and oyster production (as a proxy for disturbance/displacement) best explained the patterns of seal use at all three subsites near the mariculture operations, with effects being stronger at the two subsites closest to operations. Conversely, density-dependence and linear trend effects poorly explained the counts at these subsites. We conclude that a combination of ENSO and mariculture activities best explain the patterns of seal haul-out use during the breeding/pupping season at the seal haul-out sites closest to oyster activities.     

Seasonal and interannual variation of bacterial production in lowland rivers of the Orinoco basin

1. We examined the influence of hydrologic seasonality on temporal variation of planktonic bacterial production (BP) in relatively undisturbed lowland rivers of the middle Orinoco basin, Venezuela. We sampled two clearwater and two blackwater rivers over 2 years for dissolved organic carbon (DOC), chlorophyll, phosphorus and bacterial abundance to determine their relationship to temporal variation in BP. 2. Dissolved organic carbon concentration was greater in blackwater (543–664 μm ) than in clearwater rivers (184–240 μm ), and was generally higher during periods of rising and high water compared with low water. Chlorophyll concentration peaked (3 μg L^?1) during the first year of study when discharge was lowest, particularly in blackwater rivers. Soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) was very low in the study rivers (<3.8 μg L^?1) and concentration increased during low water. 3. Average BP was higher in clearwater (0.20–0.26 μg C L^?1 h^?1) than in blackwater rivers (0.14–0.17 μg C L^?1 h^?1), although mean bacterial abundance was similar among rivers (0.6–0.8 × 10⁶ cells mL^?1). 4. Periods of higher chlorophyll a concentration (low water) or flushing of terrestrial organic material (rising water) were accompanied by higher BP, while low BP was observed during the period of high water. 5. Interannual variation in BP was influenced by variations in discharge related to El Niño Southern Oscillation events. 6. Seasonal variation in BP in the study rivers and other tropical systems was relatively small compared with seasonal variation in temperate rivers and lakes. In addition to the low seasonal variation of temperature in the tropics, low overall human disturbance could result in less variation in the inputs of nutrients and carbon to the study rivers compared with more disturbed temperate systems.     

Relationships of subalpine forest fires in the Colorado Front Range with interannual and multidecadal‐scale climatic variation

Aim An understanding of past relationships between fire occurrence and climate variability will help to elucidate the implications of climate‐change scenarios for future patterns of wildfire. In the present study we investigate the relationships between subalpine‐zone fire occurrence and climate variability and broad‐scale climate patterns in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans at both interannual and multidecadal time‐scales. Location The study area is the subalpine zone of Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii) and subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa), and lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) in the southern sector of the Rocky Mountain National Park, which straddles the continental divide of the northern Colorado Front Range. Methods We compared years of widespread fire from AD 1650 to 1978 for the subalpine zone of southern Rocky Mountain National Park, with climate variables such as measures of drought, and indices such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Results Years of extensive subalpine‐zone fires are significantly related to climate variability, phases of ENSO, the PDO, and the AMO, as well as to phase combinations of ENSO, the PDO, and the AMO at both interannual and centennial time‐scales. Main conclusions Years of extensive fires are related to extreme drought conditions and are significantly related to the La Niña phase of ENSO, the negative (cool) phase of the PDO, and the positive (warm) phase of the AMO. The co‐occurrence of the phase combination of La Niña‐negative PDO‐positive AMO is more important to fire occurrence than the individual influences of the climate patterns. Low‐frequency trends in the occurrence of this combination of climate‐pattern phases, resulting from trends in the AMO, are the primary climate pattern associated with periods of high fire occurrence (1700–89 and 1851–1919) and a fire‐free period (1790–1850). The apparent controlling influence of the AMO on drought and years of large fires in the subalpine forests of the Colorado Front Range probably applies to an extensive area of western North America.     

Observed relationships between El Niño‐Southern Oscillation,rainfall variability and vegetation and fire history on Halmahera,Maluku, Indonesia

A temporally high‐resolution palynological study of the uppermost section of core MD98‐2180 from Kau Bay, Halmahera, Indonesia, provides a vegetation and fire record covering the last 250 years. The record is compared with the Maluku Rainfall Index, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and southern hemisphere winter sea surface temperatures (SST) for the central Pacific Ocean based on instrumental data, as well as reconstructions of the SOI and the central Pacific SST and historically recorded El Niño events. The results show that significant El Niño events are generally associated with increased representation of Dipterocarpaceae pollen, probably reflecting the mass‐flowering of this taxon during El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) droughts, and elevated charcoal levels, reflecting a greater incidence of fires during these extremely dry periods, while humid phases show increased fern numbers. Our findings demonstrate that pollen records ‘ecological’ in scale can provide useful additional proxy records of ENSO events.     

Large tree mortality and the decline of forest biomass following Amazonian wildfires

Surface fires in Amazonian forests could contribute as much as 5% of annual carbon emissions from all anthropogenic sources during severe El Niño years. However, these estimates are based on short‐term figures of post‐burn tree mortality, when large thicker barked trees (representing a disproportionate amount of the forest biomass) appear to resist the fires. On the basis of a longer term study, we report that the mortality of large trees increased markedly between 1 and 3 years, more than doubling current estimates of biomass loss and committed carbon emissions from low‐intensity fires in tropical forests.     

Effects of functional constraints and opportunism on the functional structure of a vertebrate predator assemblage

1. Within mainstream ecological literature, functional structure has been viewed as resulting from the interplay of species interactions, resource levels and environmental variability. Classical models state that interspecific competition generates species segregation and guild formation in stable saturated environments, whereas opportunism causes species aggregation on abundant resources in variable unsaturated situations. 2. Nevertheless, intrinsic functional constraints may result in species-specific differences in resource-use capabilities. This could force some degree of functional structure without assuming other putative causes. However, the influence of such constraints has rarely been tested, and their relative contribution to observed patterns has not been quantified. 3. We used a multiple null-model approach to quantify the magnitude and direction (non-random aggregation or divergence) of the functional structure of a vertebrate predator assemblage exposed to variable prey abundance over an 18-year period. Observed trends were contrasted with predictions from null-models designed in an orthogonal fashion to account independently for the effects of functional constraints and opportunism. Subsequently, the unexplained variation was regressed against environmental variables to search for evidence of interspecific competition. 4. Overall, null-models accounting for functional constraints showed the best fit to the observed data, and suggested an effect of this factor in modulating predator opportunistic responses. However, regression models on residual variation indicated that such an effect was dependent on both total and relative abundance of principal (small mammals) and alternative (arthropods, birds, reptiles) prey categories. 5. In addition, no clear evidence for interspecific competition was found, but differential delays in predator functional responses could explain some of the unaccounted variation. Thus, we call for caution when interpreting empirical data in the context of classical models assuming synchronous responses of consumers to resource levels.