Exploring stable pattern formation in models of tussock moth populations

1. The western tussock moth ( Orgyia vetusta ) at the University of California Bodega Marine Reserve (Sonoma County, California, USA) exhibits dense, localized populations in the midst of extensive habitats where variation in host plant quality or predator abundance is unable to explain the restricted extent of the outbreaks.
2. Two primary features suggest that the host patterning is intrinsically generated: (i) female tussock moths are wingless, producing a low effective dispersal distance for the hosts; and (ii) the tussock moth population is attacked by several species of widely dispersing wasp and fly parasitoids.
3. We consider a set of spatially explicit host–parasitoid models to examine whether intrinsically generated patterns are possible within this system. These models include a spatially extended Nicholson–Bailey model to examine general features of pattern formation in host–parasitoid systems, and two system-specific models, an individual-based simulation and a population-level analytic model, to examine the details of this empirical system.
4. Both stable patterning and rapid extinction of the host population are initial-condition dependent outcomes of the general and specific models, implying that an intrinsically generated stable host pattern is feasible within the tussock moth system.
5. Stable patterning is enhanced by a large parasitoid-to-host dispersal ratio, local host resource limitation, and increased parasitism at the host patch's edge.     

Intraspecific interactions affect the spatial pattern of a dominant shrub in a semiarid shrubland: A prospective approach

Dispersal, physical conditions and biotic interactions contribute to determine the spatial distribution of individuals in plant populations. Much of what we know has been learned from studies that retrospectively posit mechanisms presumed to have generated the observed spatial patterns. Here we present a prospective approach. We start by measuring spatial demographic effects and evaluate if they can generate observed spatial patterns. We evaluated the influence of interactions among conspecifics on vital rates, demography and spatial distribution of Croton aff. wagneri, a dominant shrub in dry Andean ecosystems. Recruitment, survival and growth varied in relation with distance to conspecifics neighbours and with their summed cover. We built a spatial individual-based model and simulated its population dynamics in 30 × 30 m plots for a 30-year period. We compared the predicted spatial pattern from these demographic models with that observed among plants in 16 independent plots with the same area. Simulated populations mimicked observed spatial patterns, although in plots at high elevations the simulated populations did not reproduce the observed inhibition at small scales. Observed and simulated patterns indicated differences between elevations in maximum aggregation and location of the distances with higher aggregation. We discuss how consideration of critical seed and juvenile stages and interspecific interactions could further improve our understanding of spatial pattern and recommend that these factors be considered in future models.     

A Bayesian approach for inferring the dynamics of partially observed endemic infectious diseases from space-time-genetic data

We describe a statistical framework for reconstructing the sequence of transmission events between observed cases of an endemic infectious disease using genetic, temporal and spatial information. Previous approaches to reconstructing transmission trees have assumed all infections in the study area originated from a single introduction and that a large fraction of cases were observed. There are as yet no approaches appropriate for endemic situations in which a disease is already well established in a host population and in which there may be multiple origins of infection, or that can enumerate unobserved infections missing from the sample. Our proposed framework addresses these shortcomings, enabling reconstruction of partially observed transmission trees and estimating the number of cases missing from the sample. Analyses of simulated datasets show the method to be accurate in identifying direct transmissions, while introductions and transmissions via one or more unsampled intermediate cases could be identified at high to moderate levels of case detection. When applied to partial genome sequences of rabies virus sampled from an endemic region of South Africa, our method reveals several distinct transmission cycles with little contact between them, and direct transmission over long distances suggesting significant anthropogenic influence in the movement of infected dogs.     

华北农牧交错带农田-草地界面土壤水分的空间特征

利用经典统计与地统计学方法,对华北农牧交错带农田-草地界面不同采样粒度（1 m×1 m、2 m×2 m）0～50 cm土层土壤水分的空间异质性进行了分析.结果表明：研究区农田、草地、农田-草地界面土壤水分均属中等变异,草地土壤水分的变异系数较农田大;土壤水分的变异系数随土层深度的增加而逐渐增大,且1 m×1 m采样粒度下农田-草地界面土壤水分变异系数与土壤深度呈显著相关(P＜0.05);1 m×1 m采样粒度下,农田-草地界面各土层土壤水分的空间异质性明显高于邻近的农田和草地,表现为中度到强度的空间自相关性,变程在7.65～30.99 m,且具斑块分布格局;2 m×2 m采样粒度下,农田-草地界面各土层土壤水分的空间结构既有中到强度的空间自相关性,又有完全随机化的纯块金效应,变程在4.16～18.86 m;在农田-草地边界存在土壤水分的界面效应.     

互花米草(Spartina alterniflora)潜在分布格局的空间尺度效应

了解不同空间尺度下外来入侵植物互花米草(Spartina alterniflora)的潜在分布格局,有助于制定科学的防治管理策略,维护滨海湿地的生物多样性。研究基于有效的地理分布点位和环境变量数据集,设置了3个研究区幅度(区域、国家、全球)和5种环境变量粒度(30″、1.0′、2.5′、5.0′、10′),应用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型预测互花米草在不同幅度和粒度下的潜在分布,探究互花米草分布格局及其环境影响因子对空间尺度响应。结果表明：(1)MaxEnt模型在不同空间尺度下的预测效果较好,各尺度下测试集的受试者曲线下面积(AUC)值均大于0.8,真实技巧统计值(TSS)值则超过0.56,但模型的预测精度对空间尺度变化较为敏感;(2)不同空间尺度下互花米草的潜在分布格局存在着显著的差异性,表现为适生区面积会随着空间范围扩大或环境变量分辨率降低而提高,且质心位置也在不断发生地带性转移;(3)空间尺度的变化会削弱主要环境变量的解释力。在大尺度范围和低分辨率环境变量图层中,气候因子的重要性较大,而在相反尺度下地形因子的影响度得到提升;(4)研究区范围与环境变量分辨率不匹配时,模型预测精度和物...     

Spatial pattern formation of prey-predator populations

Summary Formation of a non-uniform spatial distribution pattern of prey and predator populations in a heterogeneous environment is mathematically investigated. Both populations are distributed in linearly connected compartments. Furthermore it is assumed that only the predator species (animal) can randomly diffuse across the boundaries but the prey species (plant) are confined in each compartment. When the prey-predator relation is given by a simple Volterra type interaction it is known that the system cannot establish a non-uniform stationary distribution in a homogeneous environment. However, in a heterogeneous environment, it can be analytically shown by constructing a Lyapunov function that the system asymptotically and globally tends to a non-uniform stationary distribution. Thus, the populations are stabilized by the heterogeneity of environment.     

Metapopulation dynamics of rabies and the efficacy of vaccination

Spatial structure in a host population results in heterogeneity in transmission dynamics. We used a Bayesian framework to evaluate competing metapopulation models of rabies transmission among domestic dog populations in villages in Tanzania. A proximate indicator of disease, medical records of animal-bite injuries, is used to infer the occurrence (presence/absence) of suspected rabid dog cases in one month intervals. State-space models were used to explore the implications of different levels of reporting probability on model parameter estimates. We find evidence for a relatively high rate of infection of these populations from neighbouring districts or from other species distributed throughout the study area, rather than from adjacent wildlife protected areas, suggesting wildlife is unlikely to be implicated in the long-term persistence of rabies. Stochastic simulation of our highest ranked models in vaccinated and hypothetical unvaccinated populations indicated that pulsed vaccination campaigns occurring from 2002 to 2007 reduced rabies occurrence by 57.3 per cent in vaccinated villages in the 1 year following each pulse, and that a similar regional campaign would deliver an 80.9 per cent reduction in occurrence. This work demonstrates how a relatively coarse, proximate sentinel of rabies infection is useful for making inferences about spatial disease dynamics and the efficacy of control measures.     

Spatial pattern of soil organic carbon of the main forest soils and its influencing factors in Guangxi,China

Aims
Our objectives were to study the spatial distribution of soil organic carbon (SOC) density and its influencing factors in the main forest ecosystems in Guangxi.
Methods
A total of 345 sample plots were established in Guangxi, and the size of each plot was 50 m × 20 m. Based on the forest resource inventory data and field investigation, the SOC storage of the main forests in Guangxi was estimated. Geostatistics was applied to analyze the spatial pattern of SOC density and the main influencing factors on SOC density were also explored by principal component analysis and stepwise regression.
Important findings
The total SOC storage in the main forests in Guangxi was 1686.88 Tg, and the mean SOC density was 124.70 Mg·hm^-2, which is lower than that of China. The best fitted semivariogram model of SOC density was exponential model, and the spatial autocorrelation was medium. The contour map based on Kriging indicated that northeastern Guangxi had high SOC density and northwestern Guangxi had low SOC density, which corresponded to high SOC density in non-karst region and low SOC density in karst region. The SOC density followed the sequence of bamboo forest > deciduous broadleaf forest > warm coniferous forest > mixed evergreen and deciduous broadleaf forest > evergreen broadleaf forest, and yellow soil > red soil > lateritic red soil > limestone soil. The dominant environment factors affecting SOC density included soil depth, longitude, latitude, and altitude. Soil depth was the most influential factor, which was mainly attributed to the karst landscape.     

高寒山地生态脆弱区聚落空间格局特征及成因识别——以天祝藏族自治县为例

自然环境复杂多样是山区聚落空间差异性和异质性的主要原因,对聚落空间治理及可持续发展具有深刻影响。采用天祝县2018年土地变更调查数据,利用空间"热点"探测、最小累积阻力值模型(MCR)和二元Logistic回归等方法,对聚落空间分布格局及其形成因素进行分析。结果表明:(1)聚落分布整体表现为集聚型,空间上呈现出"东南高、西北低"的格局。(2)核密度估计值东南高、西北低,形成"东南密集型"和"西北稀疏型"2个典型分布区,呈现出"核心-边缘"结构;同时,聚落规模空间"热点"探测显示,聚落形态具有显著的空间差异性,华藏寺镇表现为高密度大斑块,其他乡镇表现为中低密度小斑块。(3)聚落斑块平均密度对分组分析结果作用显著,聚落类型由中低密度斑块主导,受高寒气候区分布范围较广的影响,高寒区稀疏型聚落覆盖范围较大。(4)通过聚落空间格局影响因素统计分析和Logistic回归分析,定量识别出:地形条件、土地资源配置和降水条件对聚落分布疏密程度作用最显著,交通禀赋和交通可达性对县域聚落格局优化具有重要作用。     

广西主要森林土壤有机碳空间分布及其影响因素

为阐明广西森林土壤有机碳密度分布格局及其主要影响因素, 基于森林资源清查资料和345个调查样地的土壤数据, 估算了广西主要森林土壤有机碳储量, 采用地统计学方法描绘了土壤有机碳密度的空间分布, 并利用主成分分析和逐步回归分析方法分析了影响土壤有机碳密度的主要因子。结果表明: 广西主要森林土壤有机碳储量(0-100 cm)达到1686.88 Tg, 土壤有机碳密度为124.70 Mg·hm^-2, 低于全国森林土壤平均水平。广西主要森林土壤有机碳密度最佳拟合模型为指数模型, 呈中等强度空间相关, Kriging插值显示土壤碳密度高值区在东北区域, 低值区在西北区域, 表现为喀斯特区域低、非喀斯特区域高的特点。广西主要森林土壤碳密度在不同植被类型和土壤类型下表现出一定差异, 其中竹林>落叶阔叶林>暖性针叶林>常绿落叶阔叶林>常绿阔叶林, 黄壤>红壤>赤红壤>石灰土。主成分分析和逐步回归分析结果发现土层深度、经纬度、海拔是影响广西森林土壤有机碳的主要因子, 其中以土层深度影响最大, 主要受岩溶地貌的影响。     

Population modelling of the spatial interactions between Maculinea rebeli their initial foodplant Gentiana cruciata and Myrmica ants within a site

A spatial computer simulation model has been developed to assist our understanding of the ways in which Maculinea butterflies depend upon the spatial distribution and abundance of their initial foodplant and their Myrmica host ant. It was initially derived for the Maculinea rebeli-Myrmica schencki-Gentiana cruciata system. It relates the population processes of the competing host and other ant species to an underlying gradient of habitat quality and incorporates the impact of adopted Maculinea caterpillars on the growth and survival of individual ant nests. The model was initially calibrated for a large site in the Spanish Pyrenees, but has since been successfully tested on 12 French sites and another in Spain. On such sites, with M. rebeli present, there is a close relationship between Maculinea population density and the density of the early larval foodplant G. cruciata. Optimum gentian density is estimated to be about 1500 plants ha-1 on sites with the natural clumping of gentians found. However, any site management which added extra gentians, especially if filling the gaps, is predicted to reduce the Maculinea population. Meta-population studies of single species have shown that the size and spatial arrangement of patches of assumed uniformly suitable habitat can influence their population dynamics and persistence. Our modelling suggests that the spatial pattern of suitable habitat of varied quality within a single site can influence the local butterfly population size and perhaps also persistence. Despite being free-ranging over the whole area, the butterfly's dynamics may depend on the arrangement of habitat quality at a finer spatial scale, due to its interactions with ant species possessing narrower habitat niches and more localized dispersal. © Rapid Science Ltd. 1998     

Epidemiological and evolutionary consequences of targeted vaccination

Recent theory has examined the way in which vaccination strategies are expected to influence the evolution of parasite virulence. Most of this work has assumed that vaccination is imposed on a homogeneous host population. However, host populations are typically composed of different types of individuals, with each type responding differently to infection. Moreover, actual interventions often focus treatment on those hosts that are likely to suffer the most ill effects of a particular disease. Here we consider the epidemiological and evolutionary consequences of interventions that focus vaccination on individuals expressing the greatest susceptibility to infection and/or the greatest vulnerability to mortality once infected. Our results indicate that predictions are very sensitive to the nature and degree of heterogeneity in susceptibility and vulnerability. They further suggest that accounting for realistic kinds of heterogeneity when contemplating targeted treatment plans and policies might provide a new tool in the design of more effective virulence management strategies.     

贺兰山冲积扇荒漠草地拟步甲群落小尺度空间格局动态

为探讨贺兰山冲积扇荒漠草地拟步甲群落小尺度空间格局动态特征,本研究于2019年5-10月每月采用陷阱法调查200mx200m空间尺度的拟步甲昆虫群落,基于地统计分析方法,研究拟步甲昆虫群落的空间格局,并分析空间格局与地形因子的关系.6次调查共捕获拟步甲科成虫7属10种1086只,群落组成具有较明显的空间和时间变异性.其...     

森林资源可持续利用空间格局分析

森林资源的经营管理一直很少注重其空间格局分析,以大兴安岭林区塔源林场的森林资源为对象,采用ＧＩＳ技术对该地区森林资源现状结构进行了分析,生成森林资源保护作业区划图,同时绘制了分别与采伐、抚育和更新造林等信息相对应的多层专题图。将这些专题图与保护作业区划图进行叠加分析,显示１９９６－１９９８年该地区森林资源可持续利用的空间格局,为森林资源保护与管理提供科学依据。     

放牧和刈割条件下草山草坡群落空间异质性分析

采用变异矩分析和分形方法,研究了草山草坡群落在放牧和刈割条件下的空间异质性及空间自相关性,结果表明,群落空间格局有尺度依赖性,刈割条件下空物异质性及空间相关性弱,多样性梯度即β多样性小,放牧消除地形引起的样地差异,因而使空间异质性简单化。     

冬季东海太平洋褶柔鱼的空间异质性特征

运用地统计学的方法,根据2002年12月东海区121个站位的资源监测调查数据,拟合变异函数最优模型,计算各向同性下的模型参数和不同方向上的分维数,分析了冬季东海北部和南部太平洋褶柔鱼的空间异质性特征,并进一步探讨了其空间格局与环境的关系。结果表明,在各向同性条件下,东海北部和南部具有相似的空间异质性特征,其变异函数均能用球状模型拟合,呈聚集空间格局,空间变程大约为440 km,随机性因素占空间异质性的30%左右,结构性因素占空间异质性的70%左右,处于主导地位。各向异性分析表明,在东海北部,135°和90°方向的分维数最高,分别为1.954和1.893,说明太平洋褶柔鱼在这两个方向上分布较均匀,空间依赖性较小,这与东南-西北方向的黄海暖流和西-东方向的长江冲淡水一致;而在东海南部,45°方向的分维数最高,为1.999,太平洋褶柔鱼在此方向分布上的同质性与西南-东北方向的黑潮主干及台湾暖流相对应。这说明,海流是影响较大尺度生态过程上太平洋褶柔鱼分布的主要环境要素。     

杨小舟蛾越冬蛹的空间分布格局

通过对杨小舟Micromelalophatroglodyta(Graeser)越冬蛹在土壤中水平方向和垂直深度分布格局的调查、分析 ,认为杨小舟蛾越冬蛹在土壤中呈聚集型分布 ,分布的基本单位是个体群 ;该虫大部分集中在树冠投影下 ,距寄主主干半径 1 2 0～ 1 60cm地表的枯枝落叶和杂草层中。