Discrete three-stage population model: persistence and global stability results

A general three-stage discrete-time population model is studied. The inherent net reproductive number for this model is derived. Global stability of the origin is established provided that the inherent net reproductive number is less than one. If it is larger than one the existence of a unique positive fixed point is proved and the persistence of the system is established. Finally, for certain parameter ranges global stability of the positive fixed point is proved.     

Existence and stability of equilibria in age-structured population dynamics

The existence of positive equilibrium solutions of the McKendrick equations for the dynamics of an age-structured population is studied as a bifurcation phenomenon using the inherent net reproductive rate n as a bifurcation parameter. The local existence and uniqueness of a branch of positive equilibria which bifurcates from the trivial (identically zero) solution at the critical value n=1 are proved by implicit function techniques under very mild smoothness conditions on the death and fertility rates as functional of age and population density. This first requires the development of a suitable linear theory. The lowest order terms in the Liapunov-Schmidt expansions are also calculated. This local analysis supplements earlier global bifurcation results of the author. The stability of both the trivial and the positive branch equilibria is studied by means of the principle of linearized stability. It is shown that in general the trivial solution losses stability as n increases through one while the stability of the branch solution is stable if and only if the bifurcation is supercritical. Thus the McKendrick equations exhibit, in the latter case, a standard exchange of stability with regard to equilibrium states as they depend on the inherent net reproductive rate. The derived lower order terms in the Liapunov-Schmidt expansions yield formulas which explicitly relate the direction of bifurcation to properties of the age-specific death and fertility rates as functionals of population density. Analytical and numerical results for some examples are given which illustrate these results.     

A three-stage discrete-time population model: continuous versus seasonal reproduction

We consider a three-stage discrete-time population model with density-dependent survivorship and time-dependent reproduction. We provide stability analysis for two types of birth mechanisms: continuous and seasonal. We show that when birth is continuous there exists a unique globally stable interior equilibrium provided that the inherent net reproductive number is greater than unity. If it is less than unity, then extinction is the population's fate. We then analyze the case when birth is a function of period two and show that the unique two-cycle is globally attracting when the inherent net reproductive number is greater than unity, while if it is less than unity the population goes to extinction. The two birth types are then compared. It is shown that for low birth rates the adult average number over a one-year period is always higher when reproduction is continuous. Numerical simulations suggest that this remains true for high birth rates. Thus periodic birth rates of period two are deleterious for the three-stage population model. This is different from the results obtained for a two-stage model discussed by Ackleh and Jang (J. Diff. Equ. Appl., 13, 261-274, 2007), where it was shown that for low birth rates seasonal breeding results in higher adult averages.     

Rational behavioral response and the transmission of STDs

The susceptible-infected (SI) model is extended by allowing for individual optimal choices of self-protective actions against infection, where agents differ with respect to preferences and costs of self-protection. It is shown that a unique endemic equilibrium prevalence exists when the basic reproductive number of a STD is strictly greater than unity, and that the disease-free equilibrium is the unique steady state equilibrium when the basic reproductive number is less than or equal to one. Unlike in models that take individual behavior as given and fixed, the endemic equilibrium prevalence need not vary monotonically with respect to the basic reproductive number. Specifically, with endogenously determined self-protective behavior, a reduction in the basic reproductive number may in fact increase the endemic equilibrium prevalence. The global stability of the endemic steady state is established for the case of a homogeneous population by showing that, for any non-zero initial disease prevalence, there exists an equilibrium path which converges to the endemic steady state.     

具不同生存能力竞争模型中的二点环

本文研究了一类具有不同生存能力竞争效应的差分方程生态模型中的同步二点周期环现象．结果表明,当存活率为密度制约时,除始终存在唯一的一个正奇点外,还同时存在唯一的一个同步二点周期环,其稳定性正好与这一正奇点的性态相反．     

Global dynamics and bifurcation analysis of a host–parasitoid model with strong Allee effect

In this paper, we study the global dynamics and bifurcations of a two-dimensional discrete time host–parasitoid model with strong Allee effect. The existence of fixed points and their stability are analysed in all allowed parametric region. The bifurcation analysis shows that the model can undergo fold bifurcation and Neimark–Sacker bifurcation. As the parameters vary in a small neighbourhood of the Neimark–Sacker bifurcation condition, the unique positive fixed point changes its stability and an invariant closed circle bifurcates from the positive fixed point. From the viewpoint of biology, the invariant closed curve corresponds to the periodic or quasi-periodic oscillations between host and parasitoid populations. Furthermore, it is proved that all solutions of this model are bounded, and there exist some values of the parameters such that the model has a global attractor. These theoretical results reveal the complex dynamics of the present model.     

Effects of density dependent sex allocation on the dynamics of a simultaneous hermaphroditic population: Modelling and analysis

In this work we present a mathematical model describing the dynamics of a population where sex allocation remains flexible throughout adult life and so can be adjusted to current environmental conditions. We consider that the fractions of immature individuals acquiring male and female sexual roles are density dependent through nonlinear functions of a weighted total population size. The main goal of this work is to understand the role of life-history parameters on the stabilization or destabilization of the population dynamics.The model turns out to be a nonlinear discrete model which is analysed by studying the existence of fixed points as well as their stability conditions in terms of model parameters. The existence of more complex asymptotic behaviours of system solutions is shown by means of numerical simulations.Females have larger fertility rate than males. On the other hand, increasing population density favours immature individuals adopting the male role. A positive equilibrium of the system exists whenever fertility and survival rates of one of the sexual roles, if shared by all adults, allow population growing while the opposite happens with the other sexual role. In terms of the female inherent net reproductive number, η_F, it is shown that the positive equilibria are stable when η_F is larger and closed to 1 while for larger values of η_F a certain asymptotic assumption on the investment rate in the female function implies that the population density is permanent. Depending on the other parameters values, the asymptotic behaviour of solutions becomes more complex, even chaotic. In this setting the stabilization/destabilization effects of the abruptness rate in density dependence, of the survival rates and of the competition coefficients are analysed.     

Discrete-time models with mosquitoes carrying genetically-modified bacteria

We formulate a homogeneous model and a stage-structured model for the interactive wild mosquitoes and mosquitoes carrying genetically-modified bacteria. We establish conditions for the existence and stability of fixed points for both models. We show that a unique positive fixed point exists and is asymptotically stable if the two boundary fixed points are both unstable. The unique positive fixed point exists and is unstable if the two boundary fixed points are both locally asymptotically stable. Using numerical examples, we demonstrate the models undergoing a period-doubling bifurcation.     

Global exponential stability of positive periodic solution of the n-species impulsive Gilpin–Ayala competition model with discrete and distributed time delays

In this paper, we study the n-species impulsive Gilpin–Ayala competition model with discrete and distributed time delays. The existence of positive periodic solution is proved by employing the fixed point theorem on cones. By constructing appropriate Lyapunov functional, we also obtain the global exponential stability of the positive periodic solution of this system. As an application, an interesting example is provided to illustrate the validity of our main results.     

An HBV model with diffusion and time delay

In this paper, a hepatitis B virus (HBV) model with spatial diffusion and saturation response of the infection rate is investigated, in which the intracellular incubation period is modelled by a discrete time delay. By analyzing the corresponding characteristic equations, the local stability of an infected steady state and an uninfected steady state is discussed. By comparison arguments, it is proved that if the basic reproductive number is less than unity, the uninfected steady state is globally asymptotically stable. If the basic reproductive number is greater than unity, by successively modifying the coupled lower-upper solution pairs, sufficient conditions are obtained for the global stability of the infected steady state. Numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the main results.     

Individual size variation and population stability in a seasonal environment: a discrete-time model and its calibration using grasshoppers

Much recent literature is concerned with how variation among individuals (e.g., variability in their traits and fates) translates into higher-level (i.e., population and community) dynamics. Although several theoretical frameworks have been devised to deal with the effects of individual variation on population dynamics, there are very few reports of empirically based estimates of the sign and magnitude of these effects. Here we describe an analytical model for size-dependent, seasonal life cycles and evaluate the effect of individual size variation on population dynamics and stability. We demonstrate that the effect of size variation on the population net reproductive rate varies in both magnitude and sign, depending on season length. We calibrate our model with field data on size- and density-dependent growth and survival of the generalist grasshopper Melanoplus femurrubrum. Under deterministic dynamics (fixed season length), size variation impairs population stability, given naturally occurring densities. However, in the stochastic case, where season length exhibits yearly fluctuations, size variation reduces the variance in population growth rates, thus enhancing stability. This occurs because the effect of size variation on net reproductive rate is dependent on season length. We discuss several limitations of the current model and outline possible routes for future model development.     

On Ebenman's model for the dynamics of a population with competing juveniles and adults

A general version of a model of Ebenman for the dynamics of a population consisting of competing juveniles and adults is analyzed using methods of bifurcation theory. A very general existence results is obtained for non-trivial equilibria and non-negative synchronous two-cycles that bifurcate simultaneously at the critical valuer=1 of the inherent net reproductive rater. Stability is studied in this general setting near the bifurcation point and conditions are derived that determine which of these two bifurcating branches is the stable branch. These general results are supplemented by numerical studies of the asymptotic dynamics over wider parameter ranges where various other bifurcations and stable attractors are found. The implications of these results are discussed with respect to the effects on stability that age class competition within a population can have and whether such competition is stabilizing or destabilizing. Supported by National Science Foundation Grant No. DMS-8714810.     

Theoretical analysis of mixed Plasmodium malariae and Plasmodium falciparum infections with partial cross-immunity

A deterministic model for assessing the dynamics of mixed species malaria infections in a human population is presented to investigate the effects of dual infection with Plasmodium malariae and Plasmodium falciparum. Qualitative analysis of the model including positivity and boundedness is performed. In addition to the disease free equilibrium, we show that there exists a boundary equilibrium corresponding to each species. The isolation reproductive number of each species is computed as well as the reproductive number of the full model. Conditions for global stability of the disease free equilibrium as well as local stability of the boundary equilibria are derived. The model has an interior equilibrium which exists if at least one of the isolation reproductive numbers is greater than unity. Among the interesting dynamical behaviours of the model, the phenomenon of backward bifurcation where a stable boundary equilibrium coexists with a stable interior equilibrium, for a certain range of the associated invasion reproductive number less than unity is observed. Results from analysis of the model show that, when cross-immunity between the two species is weak, there is a high probability of coexistence of the two species and when cross-immunity is strong, competitive exclusion is high. Further, an increase in the reproductive number of species i increases the stability of its boundary equilibrium and its ability to invade an equilibrium of species j. Numerical simulations support our analytical conclusions and illustrate possible behaviour scenarios of the model.     

Optimal control of drug therapy: melding pharmacokinetics with viral dynamics

Pharmacokinetics were melded with a viral dynamical model to design an optimal drug administration regimen such that the basic reproductive number for the virus was minimized. One-compartmental models with two kinds of drug delivery routes, intravenous and extravascular with multiple dosages, and two drug elimination rates, first order and Michaelis-Menten rates, were considered. We defined explicitly the basic reproductive number for the viral dynamical model melded with pharmacokinetics. When the average plasma drug concentration was constant, intravenous administration of the drug with small dosages applied frequently minimized the basic reproductive number. For extravascular administration, the basic reproductive number initially decreases to a trough point and then increases as the drug dosage increases. When a therapeutic window is considered, numerical studies indicate that the wider the window, the smaller the basic reproductive number. Once the width of the therapeutic window is fixed, the basic reproductive number monotonously declines as the minimum therapeutic level increases. The findings suggest that the existence of drug dosage and drug administration interval that minimize the basic reproductive number could help design the optimal drug administration regimen.     

Net reproductive rate of unmanaged honeybee colonies, (Apis mellifera L.)

Summary The net reproductive rate of unmanaged honeybee colonies has never been fully determined for honey bees in temperate climates. In this study, five overwintered colonies in Kansas, USA, were allowed to swarm naturally (Winston. 1980). These colonies and their swarms were studied over the winter (i.e. one generation). The net reproductive rateR ₀ was estimated to be 2.18. Afterswarms were found to contribute substantially (41.2%) to this net reproductive rate. The autumn and spring food reserves and brood areas of established colonies and colonies established from prime swarms and afterswarms are compared. Winter survival of afterswarms was related to autumn honey stores, and the brood areas of surviving afterswarms were smaller than those of prime swarms or established colonies.     

具有周期传染率的SIR传染病模型的周期解

考虑了具有周期传染率的SIR流行病模型,定义了基本再生数^-R0=β／（μ＋γ）,分析了该模型的动力学性态,证明了当^-R0〈1时无病平衡点是全局稳定的;^-R0〉1时,无病平衡点是不稳定的,模型至少存在一个周期解。对小振幅的周期传染率模型,给出了模型周期解的近似表达式,证明了该周期解的稳定性,最后做了数值模拟,结果显示周期解可能是全局稳定的。     

Bio-economic model to evaluate twinning rate using sexed embryo transfer in dairy herds

A stochastic bio-economic model has been used to determine the effects of new reproductive technologies over a 15-year period. A strategy of using conventional artificial insemination (AI) or embryo transfer (ET) using two sex-controlled embryos at different conception rates (CRs) and herd sizes resulted in a 24 state model. The genetic means of AI population increased over the years, and the genetic means of milk production for all of the embryo strategies were greater than those of AI. In addition, the genetic means of milk yield using different embryo-based scenarios in the expanding herds were greater than those for the fixed herds. The net profit of using sexed ET in the expanding herds was greater (P < 0.05) than that of fixed size herds. In general, there was a roughly consistent trend in net profit per cow for sexed ET strategies in the expanding herds over the years, but there was an increasing trend in net profit per cow for sexed ET strategies in the fixed herds over the years. Medium to high CRs for ET and the use of sex-controlled embryo systems, especially for induction of twin births to produce dairy replacements, will be critical elements of a system that produces significant numbers of female calves. The greater number of female calves produced in the sex-controlled scenarios allows the farmer to select animals with the best genetic potential as dairy replacement heifers; therefore, the rate of genetic gain increased in the dairy herd. Results of sensitivity analyses showed that a significant decrease in the production costs and increase in the ET performance are essential for embryo-based technologies to be profitable.     

Global stability of models of humoral immunity against multiple viral strains

We analyse, from a mathematical point of view, the global stability of equilibria for models describing the interaction between infectious agents and humoral immunity. We consider the models that contain the variables of pathogens explicitly. The first model considers the situation where only a single strain exists. For the single strain model, the disease steady state is globally asymptotically stable if the basic reproductive ratio is greater than one. The other models consider the situations where multiple strains exist. For the multi-strain models, the disease steady state is globally asymptotically stable. In the model that does not explicitly contain an immune variable, only one strain with the maximum basic reproductive ratio can survive at the steady state. However, in our models explicitly involving the immune system, multiple strains coexist at the steady state.     

Mathematical analysis of a metapopulation model with space-limited recruitment

We investigate a mathematical aspect of a multi-species' sessile metapopulation model with space-limited recruitment proposed by Iwasa et al. in 1986. We define some basic reproduction numbers to show the threshold condition for the stability of trivial steady state and the existence of coexistent steady state. We show the existence of steady state where all species exist when some reproduction numbers are greater than one by the fixed point theorem. And we construct the Lyapunov function to show the global stability of trivial steady state when some basic reproduction numbers are not greater than one.     

Most networks in Wagner's model are cycling

In this paper we study a model of gene networks introduced by Andreas Wagner in the 1990s that has been used extensively to study the evolution of mutational robustness. We investigate a range of model features and parameters and evaluate the extent to which they influence the probability that a random gene network will produce a fixed point steady state expression pattern. There are many different types of models used in the literature, (discrete/continuous, sparse/dense, small/large network) and we attempt to put some order into this diversity, motivated by the fact that many properties are qualitatively the same in all the models. Our main result is that random networks in all models give rise to cyclic behavior more often than fixed points. And although periodic orbits seem to dominate network dynamics, they are usually considered unstable and not allowed to survive in previous evolutionary studies. Defining stability as the probability of fixed points, we show that the stability distribution of these networks is highly robust to changes in its parameters. We also find sparser networks to be more stable, which may help to explain why they seem to be favored by evolution. We have unified several disconnected previous studies of this class of models under the framework of stability, in a way that had not been systematically explored before.