A Monte Carlo method for Bayesian analysis of linkage between single markers and quantitative trait loci. I. Methodology

A Bayesian approach to the statistical mapping of Quantitative Trait Loci (QTLs) using single markers was implemented via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms for parameter estimation and hypothesis testing. Parameter estimators were marginal posterior means computed using a Gibbs sampler with data augmentation. Variables sampled included the augmented data (marker-QTL genotypes, polygenic effects), an indicator variable for linkage, and the parameters (allele frequency, QTL substitution effect, recombination rate, polygenic and residual variances). Several MCMC algorithms were derived for computing Bayesian tests of linkage, which consisted of the marginal posterior probability of linkage and the marginal likelihood of the QTL variance associated with the marker.     

The Use of Multiple Markers in a Bayesian Method for Mapping Quantitative Trait Loci

Information on multiple linked genetic markers was used in a Bayesian method for the statistical mapping of quantitative trait loci (QTL). Bayesian parameter estimation and hypothesis testing were implemented via Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms. Variables sampled were the augmented data (marker-QTL genotypes, polygenic effects), an indicator variable for linkage or nonlinkage, and the parameters. The parameter vector included allele frequencies at the markers and the QTL, map distances of the markers and the QTL, QTL substitution effect, and polygenic and residual variances. The criterion for QTL detection was the marginal posterior probability of a QTL being located on the chromosome carrying the markers. The method was evaluated empirically by analyzing simulated granddaughter designs consisting of 2000 sons, 20 related sires, and their ancestors.     

Bayesian versus frequentist analysis of multiple quantitative trait loci with an application to an outbred apple cross

Two methods, following different statistical paradigms for mapping multiple quantitative trait loci (QTLs), were compared: the first is a frequentist, the second a Bayesian approach. Both methods were applied to previously published experimental data from an outbred progeny of a single cross between two apple cultivars (Malus pumila Mill.). These approaches were compared with respect to (1) the models used, (2) the number of putative QTLs, (3) their estimated map positions and accuracies thereof and (4) the choice of cofactor markers. In general, the strongest evidence for QTLs, provided by both methods, was for the same linkage groups and for similar map positions. However, some differences were found with respect to evidence for QTLs on other linkage groups. The effect of using cofactor markers which were selected differently was also somewhat different. Received: 17 July 2000 / Accepted: 13 January 2001     

Bayesian functional mapping of dynamic quantitative traits

Without consideration of other linked QTLs responsible for dynamic trait, original functional mapping based on a single QTL model is not optimal for analyzing multiple dynamic trait loci. Despite that composite functional mapping incorporates the effects of genetic background outside the tested QTL in mapping model, the arbitrary choice of background markers also impact on the power of QTL detection. In this study, we proposed Bayesian functional mapping strategy that can simultaneously identify multiple QTL controlling developmental patterns of dynamic traits over the genome. Our proposed method fits the change of each QTL effect with the time by Legendre polynomial and takes the residual covariance structure into account using the first autoregressive equation. Also, Bayesian shrinkage estimation was employed to estimate the model parameters. Especially, we specify the gamma distribution as the prior for the first-order auto-regressive coefficient, which will guarantee the convergence of Bayesian sampling. Simulations showed that the proposed method could accurately estimate the QTL parameters and had a greater statistical power of QTL detection than the composite functional mapping. A real data analysis of leaf age growth in rice is used for the demonstration of our method. It shows that our Bayesian functional mapping can detect more QTLs as compared to composite functional mapping.     

Bayesian association mapping of multiple quantitative trait loci and its application to the analysis of genetic variation among <Emphasis Type="Italic">Oryza sativa</Emphasis> L. germplasms

One way to use a crop germplasm collection directly to map QTLs without using line-crossing experiments is the whole genome association mapping. A major problem with association mapping is the presence of population structure, which can lead to both false positives and failure to detect genuine associations (i.e., false negatives). Particularly in highly selfing species such as Asian cultivated rice, high levels of population structure are expected and therefore the efficiency of association mapping remains almost unknown. Here, we propose an approach that combines a Bayesian method for mapping multiple QTLs with a regression method that directly incorporates estimates of population structure. That is, the effects due to both multiple QTLs and population structure were included in our statistical model. We evaluated the efficiency of our approach in simulated- and real-trait analyses of a rice germplasm collection. Simulation analyses based on real marker data showed that our model could suppress both false-positive and false-negative rates and the error of estimation of genetic effects over single QTL models, indicating that our model has statistically desirable attributes over single QTL models. As real traits, we analyzed the size and shape of milled rice grains and found significant markers that may be linked to QTLs reported previously. Association mapping should have good prospects in highly selfing species such as rice if proper methods are adopted. Our approach will be useful for the whole genome association mapping of various selfing crop species.     

Bayesian mapping of quantitative trait loci for multiple complex traits with the use of variance components

Complex traits important for humans are often correlated phenotypically and genetically. Joint mapping of quantitative-trait loci (QTLs) for multiple correlated traits plays an important role in unraveling the genetic architecture of complex traits. Compared with single-trait analysis, joint mapping addresses more questions and has advantages for power of QTL detection and precision of parameter estimation. Some statistical methods have been developed to map QTLs underlying multiple traits, most of which are based on maximum-likelihood methods. We develop here a multivariate version of the Bayes methodology for joint mapping of QTLs, using the Markov chain-Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. We adopt a variance-components method to model complex traits in outbred populations (e.g., humans). The method is robust, can deal with an arbitrary number of alleles with arbitrary patterns of gene actions (such as additive and dominant), and allows for multiple phenotype data of various types in the joint analysis (e.g., multiple continuous traits and mixtures of continuous traits and discrete traits). Under a Bayesian framework, parameters--including the number of QTLs--are estimated on the basis of their marginal posterior samples, which are generated through two samplers, the Gibbs sampler and the reversible-jump MCMC. In addition, we calculate the Bayes factor related to each identified QTL, to test coincident linkage versus pleiotropy. The performance of our method is evaluated in simulations with full-sib families. The results show that our proposed Bayesian joint-mapping method performs well for mapping multiple QTLs in situations of either bivariate continuous traits or mixed data types. Compared with the analysis for each trait separately, Bayesian joint mapping improves statistical power, provides stronger evidence of QTL detection, and increases precision in estimation of parameter and QTL position. We also applied the proposed method to a set of real data and detected a coincident linkage responsible for determining bone mineral density and areal bone size of wrist in humans.     

A General Monte Carlo Method for Mapping Multiple Quantitative Trait Loci

In this paper we address the mapping of multiple quantitative trait loci (QTLs) in line crosses for which the genetic data are highly incomplete. Such complicated situations occur, for instance, when dominant markers are used or when unequally informative markers are used in experiments with outbred populations. We describe a general and flexible Monte Carlo expectation-maximization (Monte Carlo EM) algorithm for fitting multiple-QTL models to such data. Implementation of this algorithm is straightforward in standard statistical software, but computation may take much time. The method may be generalized to cope with more complex models for animal and human pedigrees. A practical example is presented, where a three-QTL model is adopted in an outbreeding situation with dominant markers. The example is concerned with the linkage between randomly amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) markers and QTLs for partial resistance to Fusarium oxysporum in lily.     

Precision Mapping of Quantitative Trait Loci

Adequate separation of effects of possible multiple linked quantitative trait loci (QTLs) on mapping QTLs is the key to increasing the precision of QTL mapping. A new method of QTL mapping is proposed and analyzed in this paper by combining interval mapping with multiple regression. The basis of the proposed method is an interval test in which the test statistic on a marker interval is made to be unaffected by QTLs located outside a defined interval. This is achieved by fitting other genetic markers in the statistical model as a control when performing interval mapping. Compared with the current QTL mapping method (i.e., the interval mapping method which uses a pair or two pairs of markers for mapping QTLs), this method has several advantages. (1) By confining the test to one region at a time, it reduces a multiple dimensional search problem (for multiple QTLs) to a one dimensional search problem. (2) By conditioning linked markers in the test, the sensitivity of the test statistic to the position of individual QTLs is increased, and the precision of QTL mapping can be improved. (3) By selectively and simultaneously using other markers in the analysis, the efficiency of QTL mapping can be also improved. The behavior of the test statistic under the null hypothesis and appropriate critical value of the test statistic for an overall test in a genome are discussed and analyzed. A simulation study of QTL mapping is also presented which illustrates the utility, properties, advantages and disadvantages of the method.     

Empirical Bayesian elastic net for multiple quantitative trait locus mapping

In multiple quantitative trait locus (QTL) mapping, a high-dimensional sparse regression model is usually employed to account for possible multiple linked QTLs. The QTL model may include closely linked and thus highly correlated genetic markers, especially when high-density marker maps are used in QTL mapping because of the advancement in sequencing technology. Although existing algorithms, such as Lasso, empirical Bayesian Lasso (EBlasso) and elastic net (EN) are available to infer such QTL models, more powerful methods are highly desirable to detect more QTLs in the presence of correlated QTLs. We developed a novel empirical Bayesian EN (EBEN) algorithm for multiple QTL mapping that inherits the efficiency of our previously developed EBlasso algorithm. Simulation results demonstrated that EBEN provided higher power of detection and almost the same false discovery rate compared with EN and EBlasso. Particularly, EBEN can identify correlated QTLs that the other two algorithms may fail to identify. When analyzing a real dataset, EBEN detected more effects than EN and EBlasso. EBEN provides a useful tool for inferring high-dimensional sparse model in multiple QTL mapping and other applications. An R software package ‘EBEN'' implementing the EBEN algorithm is available on the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN).     

Mapping-Linked Quantitative Trait Loci Using Bayesian Analysis and Markov Chain Monte Carlo Algorithms

A Bayesian method for mapping linked quantitative trait loci (QTL) using multiple linked genetic markers is presented. Parameter estimation and hypothesis testing was implemented via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. Parameters included were allele frequencies and substitution effects for two biallelic QTL, map positions of the QTL and markers, allele frequencies of the markers, and polygenic and residual variances. Missing data were polygenic effects and multi-locus marker-QTL genotypes. Three different MCMC schemes for testing the presence of a single or two linked QTL on the chromosome were compared. The first approach includes a model indicator variable representing two unlinked QTL affecting the trait, one linked and one unlinked QTL, or both QTL linked with the markers. The second approach incorporates an indicator variable for each QTL into the model for phenotype, allowing or not allowing for a substitution effect of a QTL on phenotype, and the third approach is based on model determination by reversible jump MCMC. Methods were evaluated empirically by analyzing simulated granddaughter designs. All methods identified correctly a second, linked QTL and did not reject the one-QTL model when there was only a single QTL and no additional or an unlinked QTL.     

Multipoint mapping of viability and segregation distorting loci using molecular markers

In line-crossing experiments, deviations from Mendelian segregation ratios are usually observed for some markers. We hypothesize that these deviations are caused by one or more segregation-distorting loci (SDL) linked to the markers. We develop both a maximum-likelihood (ML) method and a Bayesian method to map SDL using molecular markers. The ML mapping is implemented via an EM algorithm and the Bayesian method is performed via the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The Bayesian mapping is computationally more intensive than the ML mapping but can handle more complicated models such as multiple SDL and variable number of SDL. Both methods are applied to a set of simulated data and real data from a cross of two Scots pine trees.     

Using the mixed model for interval mapping of quantitative trait loci in outbred line crosses

Interval mapping by simple regression is a powerful method for the detection of quantitative trait loci (QTLs) in line crosses such as F2 populations. Due to the ease of computation of the regression approach, relatively complex models with multiple fixed effects, interactions between QTLs or between QTLs and fixed effects can easily be accommodated. However, polygenic effects, which are not targeted in QTL analysis, cannot be treated as random effects in a least squares analysis. In a cross between true inbred lines this is of no consequence, as the polygenic effect contributes just to the residual variance. In a cross between outbred lines, however, if a trait has high polygenic heritability, the additive polygenic effect has a large influence on variation in the population. Here we extend the fixed model for the regression interval mapping method to a mixed model using an animal model. This makes it possible to use not only the observations from progeny (e.g. F2), but also those from the parents (F1) to evaluate QTLs and polygenic effects. We show how the animal model using parental observations can be applied to an outbred cross and so increase the power and accuracy of QTL analysis. Three estimation methods, i.e. regression and an animal model either with or without parental observations, are applied to simulated data. The animal model using parental observations is shown to have advantages in estimating QTL position and additive genotypic value, especially when the polygenic heritability is large and the number of progeny per parent is small.     

Mapping quantitative trait loci using binned genotypes

Precise mapping of quantitative trait loci(QTLs)is critical for assessing genetic effects and identifying candidate genes for quantitative traits.Interval and composite interval mappings have been the methods of choice for several decades,which have provided tools for identifying genomic regions harboring causal genes for quantitative traits.Historically,the concept was developed on the basis of sparse marker maps where genotypes of loci within intervals could not be observed.Currently,genomes of many organisms have been saturated with markers due to the new sequencing technologies.Genotyping by sequencing usually generates hundreds of thousands of single nucleotide polymorphisms(SNPs),which often include the causal polymorphisms.The concept of interval no longer exists,prompting the necessity of a norm change in QTL mapping technology to make use of the high-volume genomic data.Here we developed a statistical method and a software package to map QTLs by binning markers into haplotype blocks,called bins.The new method detects associations of bins with quantitative traits.It borrows the mixed model methodology with a polygenic control from genome-wide association studies(GWAS)and can handle all kinds of experimental populations under the linear mixed model(LMM)framework.We tested the method using both simulated data and data from populations of rice.The results showed that this method has higher power than the current methods.An R package named binQTL is available from GitHub.     

Bayesian multiple quantitative trait loci mapping for complex traits using markers of the entire genome

A Bayesian methodology has been developed for multiple quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping of complex binary traits that follow liability threshold models. Unlike most QTL mapping methods where only one or a few markers are used at a time, the proposed method utilizes all markers across the genome simultaneously. The outperformance of our Bayesian method over the traditional single-marker analysis and interval mapping has been illustrated via simulations and real data analysis to identify candidate loci associated with colorectal cancer.     

Mapping multiple QTL of different effects: comparison of a simple sequential testing strategy and multiple QTL mapping

The aim of this study was to explore, by computer simulation, the mapping of QTLs in a realistic but complex situation of many (linked) QTLs with different effects, and to compare two QTL mapping methods. A novel method to dissect genetic variation on multiple chromosomes using molecular markers in backcross and F₂ populations derived from inbred lines was suggested, and its properties tested using simulations. The rationale for this sequential testing method was to explicitly test for alternative genetic models. The method consists of a series of four basic statistical tests to decide whether variance was due to a single QTL, two QTLs, multiple QTLs, or polygenes, starting with a test to detect genetic variance associated with a particular chromosome. The method was able to distinguish between different QTL configurations, in that the probability to `detect' the correct model was high, varying from 0.75 to 1. For example, for a backcross population of 200 and an overall heritability of 50%, in 78% of replicates a polygenic model was detected when that was the underlying true model. To test the method for multiple chromosomes, QTLs were simulated on 10 chromosomes, following a geometric series of allele effects, assuming positive alleles were in coupling in the founder lines For these simulations, the sequential testing method was compared to the established Multiple QTL Mapping (MQM) method. For a backcross population of 400 individuals, power to detect genetic variance was low with both methods when the heritability was 0.40. For example, the power to detect genetic variation on a chromosome on which 6 QTLs explained 12.6% of the genetic variance, was less than 60% for both methods. For a large heritability (0.90), the power of MQM to detect genetic variance and to dissect QTL configurations was generally better, due to the simultaneous fitting of markers on all chromosomes. It is concluded that when testing different QTL configurations on a single chromosome using the sequential testing procedure, regions of other chromosomes which explain a significant amount of variation should be fitted in the model of analysis. This study reinforces the need for large experiments in plants and other species if the aim of a genome scan is to dissect quantitative genetic variation.     

Advanced backcross-QTL analysis in spring barley (H. vulgare ssp. spontaneum) comparing a REML versus a Bayesian model in multi-environmental field trials

A common difficulty in mapping quantitative trait loci (QTLs) is that QTL effects may show environment specificity and thus differ across environments. Furthermore, quantitative traits are likely to be influenced by multiple QTLs or genes having different effect sizes. There is currently a need for efficient mapping strategies to account for both multiple QTLs and marker-by-environment interactions. Thus, the objective of our study was to develop a Bayesian multi-locus multi-environmental method of QTL analysis. This strategy is compared to (1) Bayesian multi-locus mapping, where each environment is analysed separately, (2) Restricted Maximum Likelihood (REML) single-locus method using a mixed hierarchical model, and (3) REML forward selection applying a mixed hierarchical model. For this study, we used data on multi-environmental field trials of 301 BC₂DH lines derived from a cross between the spring barley elite cultivar Scarlett and the wild donor ISR42-8 from Israel. The lines were genotyped by 98 SSR markers and measured for the agronomic traits “ears per m2,” “days until heading,” “plant height,” “thousand grain weight,” and “grain yield”. Additionally, a simulation study was performed to verify the QTL results obtained in the spring barley population. In general, the results of Bayesian QTL mapping are in accordance with REML methods. In this study, Bayesian multi-locus multi-environmental analysis is a valuable method that is particularly suitable if lines are cultivated in multi-environmental field trials. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Bayesian multilocus association mapping on ordinal and censored traits and its application to the analysis of genetic variation among Oryza sativa L. germplasms

Association mapping can be a powerful tool for detecting quantitative trait loci (QTLs) without requiring line-crossing experiments. We previously proposed a Bayesian approach for simultaneously mapping multiple QTLs by a regression method that directly incorporates estimates of the population structure. In the present study, we extended our method to analyze ordinal and censored traits, since both types of traits are common in the evaluation of germplasm collections. Ordinal-probit and tobit models were employed to analyze ordinal and censored traits, respectively. In both models, we postulated the existence of a latent continuous variable associated with the observable data, and we used a Markov-chain Monte Carlo algorithm to sample the latent variable and determine the model parameters. We evaluated the efficiency of our approach by using simulated- and real-trait analyses of a rice germplasm collection. Simulation analyses based on real marker data showed that our models could reduce both false-positive and false-negative rates in detecting QTLs to reasonable levels. Simulation analyses based on highly polymorphic marker data, which were generated by coalescent simulations, showed that our models could be applied to genotype data based on highly polymorphic marker systems, like simple sequence repeats. For the real traits, we analyzed heading date as a censored trait and amylose content and the shape of milled rice grains as ordinal traits. We found significant markers that may be linked to previously reported QTLs. Our approach will be useful for whole-genome association mapping of ordinal and censored traits in rice germplasm collections.     

A general mixture model for mapping quantitative trait loci by using molecular markers

Summary In a segregating population a quantitative trait may be considered to follow a mixture of (normal) distributions, the mixing proportions being based on Mendelian segregation rules. A general and flexible mixture model is proposed for mapping quantitative trait loci (QTLs) by using molecular markers. A method is discribed to fit the model to data. The model makes it possible to (1) analyse non-normally distributed traits such as lifetimes, counts or percentages in addition to normally distributed traits, (2) reduce environmental variation by taking into account the effects of experimental design factors and interaction between genotype and environment, (3) reduce genotypic variation by taking into account the effects of two or more QTLs simultaneously, (4) carry out a (combined) analysis of different population types, (5) estimate recombination frequencies between markers or use known marker distances, (6) cope with missing marker observations, (7) use markers as covariables in detection and mapping of QTLs, and finally to (8) implement the mapping in standard statistical packages.     

Interval Mapping of Multiple Quantitative Trait Loci

The interval mapping method is widely used for the mapping of quantitative trait loci (QTLs) in segregating generations derived from crosses between inbred lines. The efficiency of detecting and the accuracy of mapping multiple QTLs by using genetic markers are much increased by employing multiple QTL models instead of the single QTL models (and no QTL models) used in interval mapping. However, the computational work involved with multiple QTL models is considerable when the number of QTLs is large. In this paper it is proposed to combine multiple linear regression methods with conventional interval mapping. This is achieved by fitting one QTL at a time in a given interval and simultaneously using (part of) the markers as cofactors to eliminate the effects of additional QTLs. It is shown that the proposed method combines the easy computation of the single QTL interval mapping method with much of the efficiency and accuracy of multiple QTL models.     

Mapping quantitative trait loci with epistatic effects

Epistatic variance can be an important source of variation for complex traits. However, detecting epistatic effects is difficult primarily due to insufficient sample sizes and lack of robust statistical methods. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian method to map multiple quantitative trait loci (QTLs) with epistatic effects. The method can map QTLs in complicated mating designs derived from the cross of two inbred lines. In addition to mapping QTLs for quantitative traits, the proposed method can even map genes underlying binary traits such as disease susceptibility using the threshold model. The parameters of interest are various QTL effects, including additive, dominance and epistatic effects of QTLs, the locations of identified QTLs and even the number of QTLs. When the number of QTLs is treated as an unknown parameter, the dimension of the model becomes a variable. This requires the reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The utility of the proposed method is demonstrated through analysis of simulation data.