具有年龄结构的传染病模型动力学分析

有史以来,传染病严重危害人类的健康和社会安定,历史证明,传染病的肆虐给人类带来的巨大的痛苦和灾难,虽然人类在治疗传染病方面已经取得了很多有效的成果,但是还面临着传染病所带来的严峻的威胁,我因此们需要对传染病的发病机理、传染规律和治疗方法作进一步研究,本文根据SARS建立了一种新模型,并针对具有年龄结构的SARS传染病模型进行动力学分析。     

2015年大连高新区传染病疫情分析

摘要：目的 对大连高新区2015年法定报告传染病进行分析,找出其流行规律,为降低和控制传染病发生提供依据。方法 采用描述流行病学分析方法。结果 2015年大连高新区共报告法定传染病13种499例,年发病率390.37/10万,同比上升了19.35%。发病数居前5位的是手足口病、梅毒、猩红热、其他感染性腹泻、肺结核,占发病总数的88.38%。结论 2015年大连高新区法定传染病以肠道传染病、呼吸道传染病、血源及性传播传染病为主,应针对高发传染病的流行特点采取有针对性的预防控制措施,以降低传染病的发病率。     

电化学免疫传感器在传染病快速检测中的应用

传染病的快速检测是传染病预防控制的重要环节,其中现场快速检测对于及时有效控制传染病疫情尤为关键。相比于传统检测方法,电化学免疫传感器具有操作简单、快速、灵敏、准确、设备可小型化等优势,可用于传染病快速检测。简要综述了近年来电化学免疫传感器在传染病快速检测中的应用研究进展,重点阐述了该类传感器在现场检测中的主要贡献和不足之处,以及免疫磁分离技术与电化学传感检测相结合在传染病快速检测方面的优势。     

解析一类SIS和SIR传染病模型的稳定性

借助微分方程建立传染病SIS模型和SIR模型,进一步研究了一类SIS和SIR传染病模型,得出了决定SIS传染病是否发生的阈值;解析了SIR模型无病平衡点和地方平衡点的稳定性.     

CRISPR基因组编辑技术在传染病致病机理研究和防诊治中的应用

CRISPR基因组编辑技术在基因操作和传染病研究等方面展现出巨大的应用前景,对于有效控制和治愈传染病具有重要价值。通过其构建的细胞、类器官和动物疾病模型,为探索传染病相关分子机制提供了极大便利。CRISPR筛选技术使得高通量鉴定传染病相关风险因子成为可能。基于CRISPR的新型分子诊断工具为病原体的检测提供了更灵敏和快速的方法。利用CRISPR工具敲入抗性基因或破坏风险基因和病毒基因组,有望实现预防或治疗传染病。本综述讨论了CRISPR基因组编辑技术在疾病模型制备、传染病风险因子筛选、病原体诊断和传染病防治中的应用,以期为后续传染病的研究和防诊治提供参考。     

一类传染病模型的扩散性质

讨论了扩散对传染病模型的阈值的影响、扩散对传染病模型中染病者人数的影响以及扩散对传染病模型的平衡点的几何性质的影响．     

新形势下医院传染病疫情管理模式探讨

目的:探讨新形势下医院传染病疫情管理的模式.方法:结合医院的实际情况,采取一系列的传染病疫情管理措施,完善管理体系,规范管理制度,加强知识培训,应用信息技术管理.结果:强化了医院传染病疫情报告及管理工作,成效显著,使传染病疫情管理更加规范化、科学化、制度化.结论:加强医院传染病疫情管理是医院管理工作的重中之重,新形势下的管理模式可以更好地有效防控传染病疫情.     

提高医院传染病管理的实践

目的：总结解放军第302医院在防控传染病方面所践采取的措施,提高医院传染病管理相关工作。方法：完善传染病管理组织,明确责任;认真落实传染病管理相关制度;加强相关知识培训,强化医护人员责任意识,提高能动性、自觉性。总结分析以上相关措施实施后,2005年-2010年期间传染病报告情况。结果：2005年-2010年每年传染病疫情报告卡填写完整率逐渐提高,医院传染病报告漏报率呈逐年下降趋势,近两年呈现填写完整无漏报的情况。结论：提高医院传染病管理的相关措施的实施,使医护人员对的传染病防控意识有所提高,做到早发现、早报告、早隔离、早治疗,降低传染病传播风险,有效减少了医院交叉感染的发生,保障人们的生命健康和社会的发展稳定。     

传染病临床研究信息系统的建立

目的:建立传染病临床研究信息系统,实现传染病临床研究的信息化管理.方法:按照FDA 21 CFR Part11规则,基于J2EE 技术、Struts三层体系架构以及Hibernate数据库技术,建立传染病临床研究信息系统.结果:开发了传染病临床研究信息系统,能够满足患者基本信息收集、病历管理、病情随访、目标数据挖掘及科研标本管理等多方面需求.结论:该信息系统满足传染病临床病例信息收集与科研的个性化需求,将显著增强传染病病例数据收集的效率和质量,为传染病临床与科研工作提供强有力的信息化保障.     

牧区牛羊常见细菌传染病的防治

牛羊细菌传染病可能造成大范围的牛羊死亡,给养殖户带来巨大经济损失。因此,做好疫情的防治非常重要。而近年来传染病防疫措施的不当导致细菌传染病发病率有所上升,给养殖户带来了严重的经济损失。本文就牧区牛羊的细菌传染病防治方法进行简要分析。     

具有阶段结构和非线性接触率的SI传染病模型的渐近性态

研究了一类具有阶段结构和非线性接触率的传染病模型的渐近性态,得到了传染病最终消除和成为地方病的阀值．     

具有种群动力的时滞SI模型

对一类具有幼年和成年两个生理阶段结构和时滞的Logistic种群动力的SI传染病模型进行了分析,得到了传染病最终消除和成为地方病的阈值．     

The Kermack-McKendrick epidemic model revisited

The Kermack-McKendrick epidemic model of 1927 is an age of infection model, that is, a model in which the infectivity of an individual depends on the time since the individual became infective. A special case, which is formulated as a two-dimensional system of ordinary differential ordinary differential equations, has often been called the Kermack-McKendrick model. One of the products of the SARS epidemic of 2002-2003 was a variety of epidemic models including general contact rates, quarantine, and isolation. These models can be viewed as age of infection epidemic models and analyzed using the approach of the full Kermack-McKendrick model. All these models share the basic properties that there is a threshold between disappearance of the disease and an epidemic outbreak, and that an epidemic will die out without infecting the entire population.     

A Martingale Approach to the Investigation of the Duration of a Mild Epidemic

The present paper is an attempt to evolve a simple methodology to obtain the steady state solution of the duration of a mild epidemic (like conjunctivitis, for which the period of sickness is about a week and the period of immunity following recovery is comparatively large) and also the intensity of the epidemic measured by the number of infections during the complete spell of the epidemic. The methodology consists of constructing Martingales based on subcritical and supercritical forms of a Simple Branching Process; and obtaining the stopping time enabling to evaluate the expected duration of the epidemic and the sampling variance together with the intensity of the epidemic.     

杉木种子涩籽地理流行趋势的研究

本文应用趋势面分析福建省杉木种子涩籽地理流行趋势,建立涩籽地理流行数学模型,阐述其流行规律,绘制山涩籽地理流行图,并将其划分成四个区：1．闽西南杉木涩籽流行递减区;2．闽东南杉木涩籽流行递增区;3．闽北杉木涩籽流行递减区：4,闽中北闽西北杉木涩籽流行渐稳区。同时建议将大型杉木种子园建在建瓯县。     

Risk perception and effectiveness of uncoordinated behavioral responses in an emerging epidemic

Beyond control measures imposed by public authorities, human behavioral changes can be triggered by uncoordinated responses driven by the risk perception of an emerging epidemic. In order to account for spontaneous social distancing, a model based on an evolutionary game theory framework is here proposed. Behavioral changes are modeled through an imitation process in which the convenience of different behaviors depends on the perceived prevalence of infections. Effects of misperception of risk induced by partial or incorrect information concerning the state of the epidemic are considered as well. Our findings highlight that, if the perceived risk associated to an epidemic is sufficiently large, then even a small reduction in the number of potentially infectious contacts (as a response to the epidemic) can remarkably affect the infection spread. In particular, the earlier the warning about the epidemic appears, the larger the possible reduction of the peak prevalence, and of the final epidemic size. Moreover, the epidemic spread is delayed if individuals' perception of risk is based on a memory mechanism and the risk of infection is initially overestimated. In conclusion, this analysis allows noteworthy inferences about the role of risk perception and the effectiveness of spontaneous behavioral changes during an emerging epidemic.     

Influenza epidemics in the USSR and Czechoslovakia in 1979-1984

In this work materials characterizing the appearance and development of influenza epidemic at the territories of the USSR and the Czech Socialist Republic are presented, the common features and differences of the epidemic process in both countries are recorded. The work shows that in both countries the appearance of this epidemic is caused by the same virus. In most cases the epidemic started earlier and lasted longer in the USSR, but morbidity rate during the epidemic was, on the whole, higher in the Czech Socialist Republic. Similarity in the course of the primary period of the epidemic processes from their appearance to their maximum rise was observed. In both countries the maximum rise of morbidity rate was registered on weeks 3-4 from the beginning of the epidemic.     

Network-based analysis of stochastic SIR epidemic models with random and proportionate mixing

In this paper, we outline the theory of epidemic percolation networks and their use in the analysis of stochastic susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) epidemic models on undirected contact networks. We then show how the same theory can be used to analyze stochastic SIR models with random and proportionate mixing. The epidemic percolation networks for these models are purely directed because undirected edges disappear in the limit of a large population. In a series of simulations, we show that epidemic percolation networks accurately predict the mean outbreak size and probability and final size of an epidemic for a variety of epidemic models in homogeneous and heterogeneous populations. Finally, we show that epidemic percolation networks can be used to re-derive classical results from several different areas of infectious disease epidemiology. In an Appendix, we show that an epidemic percolation network can be defined for any time-homogeneous stochastic SIR model in a closed population and prove that the distribution of outbreak sizes given the infection of any given node in the SIR model is identical to the distribution of its out-component sizes in the corresponding probability space of epidemic percolation networks. We conclude that the theory of percolation on semi-directed networks provides a very general framework for the analysis of stochastic SIR models in closed populations.     

Functional outline of the epidemic process

The present study has shown that on the level of the parasitic system the epidemic process is a biological system, wherein the host population serves as the internal regulator, the mechanism of transmission serves as the external regulator and the parasite population, as the regulated object. The biological regulating mechanisms of the epidemic process have fundamental differences in the groups of infectious with various mechanisms of transmission, and the specific nature of the mechanism of transmission determines the peculiar features of the biological mechanism which governs the self-regulation of the epidemic process. In contrast, on a higher level of the organization of the epidemic process, i. e. on the level of the socio-ecological system, the epidemic process is a biosocial system, wherein the human society serves as the regulator, the parasitic system serves as the regulated object and the mechanism of transmission plays the role of the filter which determines the scope of social factors, most important in the regulation of the epidemic process in a given infection. The spontaneous regulation of the epidemic process is the freed forward channel from the regulator to the regulated object, and the controlled regulation is the feedback channel.