A possible relationship between outbreaks of the oriental migratory locust (Locusta migratoria manilensis Meyen) in China and the El Niño episodes

We investigated the statistical relationship between outbreaks of the oriental migratory locust (Locusta migratoria manilensis Meyen) in the Huang Ho and Huai Ho regions of China and El Niño episodes during 1905–1959, and discussed how El Niño affects locust outbreaks. The outbreaks of the locust mostly occurred 1–2 years after the El Niño episodes. El Niño was suggested to affect the locust outbreaks by changing the precipitation and air temperature in Northern China.     

Inter-hemispheric comparison of fire history: The Colorado Front Range,U.S.A., and the Northern Patagonian Andes,Argentina

Fire history was compared between the Colorado Front Range (U.S.A.) and northern Patagonia (Argentina) by dating fire-scars on 525 Pinus ponderosa and 418 Austrocedrus chilensis, respectively, and determining fire weather on the basis of instrumental and tree-ring proxy records of climatic variation. Years of above average moisture availability preceding fire years, rather than drought alone, is conducive to years of widespread fire in the Colorado Front Range and the northern Patagonian study areas. Above-average precipitation promotes fire by enhancing the growth of herbaceous plants which increases the quantity of fine fuels during the fire season a few years later. The short-term variability in moisture availability that is conducive to widespread burning is strongly related to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity. The warm (El Niño) phase of ENSO is associated with greater moisture availability during the spring in both regions which leads to peaks in fire occurrence several years after El Niño events. The warmer and drier springs associated with la Niña events exacerbate the drying of fuels so that fire years commonly coincide with La Niña events. In both regions, there was a dramatic decline in fire occurrence after the early 1900s due to a decline in intentionally set fires by Native Americans and European settlers, fuel reduction by livestock grazing, and increasingly effective organized fire suppression activities after the 1920s. In both regions there was a marked increase in fire frequency during the mid-and late-19th centuries which coincides with increased ignitions by Native Americans and/or European settlers. However, year-to-year variability in ring widths of Pinus ponderosa and Austrocedrus chilensis also increased from relatively low values in the late 1700s and early 1800s to peaks in the 1850s and 1860s. This implies frequent alternation of years of above and below average moisture availability during the mid-19th century when the frequencies of major fire years rise. The high correlation of tree-growth variability betweem the two regions implies a strong inter-hemispheric variation in climatic variability at a centennial time scale which closely parallels a variety of proxy records of ENSO activity. Based on the relationship of fire and ENSO events documented in the current study, this long-term trend in ENSO activity probably contributed to the mid- and late-19th century increase in fire spread in both regions. These similar trends in fire occurrence have contributed to similar patterns of forest structures, forest health, and current hazard of catastrophic wildfire in the Colorado Front Range and northern Patagonia.     

The impact of El Niño events on populations of mesopelagic hydromedusae

For over 10 years, the midwater ecology group at MBARI has compiled video and accompanying physical data with the ROV Ventana operating in mesopelagic depths of Monterey Bay, CA in order to elucidate patterns in midwater ecology. Two El Niño events have occurred during this time period, in 1991–92 and in 1997–98. The oceanographic metric of spiciness combines temperature and salinity data into one sensitive measurement. Although temperature and salinity measurements alone revealed no clear patterns, clear signals of spiciness were observed that corresponded to water mass intrusions into the deep waters of the bay during the two El Niño events. During these events, some seldom-seen species were observed in high numbers in the midwater, while historically common species became rare. During non-El Niño years, the leptomedusa Mitrocoma cellularia(A. Agassiz, 1865) was common in the surface waters (0–50 m) of Monterey Bay, but it was not abundant at depth, while the trachymedusa Colobonema sericeum Vanhöffen, 1902 was found in relatively high numbers at mesopelagic depths. During the last two El Niño events, M. cellulariawas observed in higher numbers at mesopelagic depths, whereas C. sericeum was scarce. M. cellularia was found in a wider range of temperatures, salinities, and dissolved oxygen values than was C. sericeum. Transport and tolerance hypotheses are proposed to explain differences in the presence and numerical density of the medusae.     

Succession of pelagic copepod species in coastal waters off northern Chile: the influence of the 1997–98 El Niño

A 2-year time series (17-d interval) of zooplankton, sampled from June 1996 through January 1998, along with oceanographic data, allowed the study of species abundances and diversity during non-El Niño and El Niño conditions at Mejillones (23° S), northern Chile. A total of 28 species was identified, of which the most abundant were the calanoids Paracalanus parvus, Calanus chilensis, Acartia tonsa, and Centropages brachiatus, the cyclopoid Oithona similis, and the poecilostomatoids Oncaea conifera and Corycaeus typicus. El Niño Southern Oscillation (El Niño) was first detected in the area in May 1997 and persisted until March 1998. We divided the time series into two parts: non-El Niño and El Niño conditions. The number of species significantly increased during El Niño conditions, but total abundance of copepods was greater during non-El Niño conditions. Although some expatriate species appeared during El Niño, such as the harpacticoid Microsetella norvegica and Eucalanus subtenuis, the diversity index of Hulburt was not significantly different between the two periods. Despite the dramatic alteration of oceanographic conditions during the El Niño period, we concluded that the community of pelagic copepods was not subject to drastic changes either in total abundance or in structure.     

Effect of climatic variation on the relative abundance of the red alga Gelidium robustum in Baja California Sur, Mexico

The red alga Gelidium robustum is important,because of its commercial exploitation in Mexico as araw material for the agar industry, providing 10% ofthe world production of agarophytes. In recent years,its annual harvest in Mexico has shownobvious,variations partly because of an increasedharvesting effort, but also because of environmentalchanges. An analysis is presented of the effect thatinterannual variability of the sea surfacetemperature, wind speed, and upwelling index had onthe relative abundance of this alga from 1980 to 1990.The results indicate a close relation betweenenvironmental fluctuations and the relative abundanceof this species. The response of G. robustum tothe different environmental conditions has not alwaysbeen equal. During El Niño 1982–84, the seasurface temperature was the most important factor andthere was a high negative correlation with therelative abundance. A lag period of three monthsshowed a positive correlation with upwelling index andwind speed. Under normal conditions and during LaNiña, the relative abundance of the alga showed apositive correlation with the sea surface temperature. For the upwelling index and wind speed, therelationship was similar to that during El Niño.     

A comparison of genetic diversity between the Galápagos Penguin and the Magellanic Penguin

The Galápagos Penguin (Spheniscusmendiculus) is a United States federallylisted endangered species with populations onthe Galápagos Islands of Fernandina andIsabela. Although the waters around theislands are normally productive, lowproductivity during El Niño years resultsin high adult penguin mortality and lowrecruitment in following years. We usedmicrosatellite markers developed for Spheniscus penguins to study the long termgenetic effects of serial bottleneck events inthe Galápagos Penguin, and compared thisvariation to that of its congener, theMagellanic penguin (Spheniscusmagellanicus). The observed heterozygosityfor the Galápagos Penguin was 3%,significantly lower than the 46%heterozygosity of the Magellanic Penguin. Thislow level of heterozygosity is directly relatedto its low effective population size. Whilethis population has survived long term,presumably without high levels of geneticvariation, we feel that the greater frequencyof El Niño events, coupled with increasedhuman impacts such as introduced disease, oildischarge, and competition with fisheries, mayput the species in particular danger ofextinction.     

Microplanktonic respiration off northern Chile during El Nino 1997-1998

Microplanktonic respiration rates were estimated in waters offthe coast of northern Chile (Antofagasta, 23°S) during ElNiño and pre-El Niño conditions. Three cruiseswere conducted during pre-El Niño summer (January/February1997), El Niño winter (July 1997) and El Niñosummer (January 1998). Oxygen consumption was estimated by theWinkler method using a semi-automatic photometric end-pointdetector. The ranges of microplanktonic respiration rates foundwere 0.11–21.15, 0.03–6.25 and 0.06–9.01 µmolO₂ l^–1 day^–1 during pre-El Niño summer, ElNiño winter and El Niño summer, respectively.Significant differences were found between winter and summerrespiration rates (non-integrated and integrated). The meanintegrated respiration (mixed layer) for pre-El Niñosummer, El Niño winter and El Niño summer was95 ± 51 (SD) mmol O₂ m^–2 day^–1, 50 ±23 (SD) mmol O₂ m^–2 day^–1 and 63 ± 32 (SD)mmol O₂ m^–2 day^–1, respectively. The strong seasonalsignal detected in microplanktonic integrated respiration inthe area seems to be characteristic of the pre-El Niño/ElNiño 1997–98 period. The integrated respirationrates found off Antofagasta are similar to reported values forthe upwelling area off Peru despite methodological differences.A positive significant correlation was found between respirationand water temperature (r = 0.76, P     

Weather changes associated with hospitalizations for cardiovascular diseases and stroke in California, 1983–1998

Poisson regression models were used to evaluate associations between temperature, precipitation, days of extreme heat, and other weather changes (lagged 7 days), as well as El Niño events, with hospitalizations for acute myocardial infarction, angina pectoris, congestive heart failure, and stroke in three California regions. Temperature changes were defined as a 3 °C decrease in maximum temperature or a 3 °C increase in minimum temperature. Temperature and precipitation were analyzed separately for normal weather periods and El Niño events, and for both weather periods combined. Associations varied by region, age, and gender. In Los Angeles, temperature changes resulted in small changes in hospitalizations. Among San Francisco residents 70+ years of age, temperature changes increased hospitalizations for nearly all outcomes from 6% to 13%. Associations among Sacramento residents were similar to those in San Francisco: among men 70+ years of age, temperature changes increased hospitalizations by 6%–11% for acute myocardial infarction and congestive heart failure, and 10%–18% for stroke. El Niño events were consistently and significantly associated with hospitalizations only in San Francisco and Sacramento, and then only for angina pectoris (increasing hospitalizations during El Niño events). These exploratory analyses merit further confirmation to improve our understanding of how admissions to hospitals for cardiovascular disease and stroke change with changing weather. Such an understanding is useful for developing current public health responses, for evaluating population vulnerability, and for designing future adaptation measures.     

Seed bank persistence of clonal weeds in contrasting habitats: implications for control

The ability of weeds to form a seed bank is important for their population dynamics and management because it provides a refuge enabling reinvasion after established target plants have died. However, knowledge of the differential seed behaviour of individual species over multiple years and varying environmental conditions is surprisingly rare but necessary for effective control of diverse weed populations. We established a seed burial experiment in alpine habitats differing in management regime (i.e., forest, hay meadow and pasture) to determine whether seeds of the unpalatable perennial weeds, Veratrum album (white hellebore) and Gentiana lutea (yellow gentian) were able to delay germination and remain viable over 3 years. Our study shows that both species formed a short-term persistent seed bank; in the third-year, the soil seed banks of both species were nearly depleted, having declined to <5% of their original size. Both species had strikingly different germination strategies: G. lutea seeds mainly germinated in their first-year, whilst the majority of V. album seeds germinated in their second-year. The fraction of dormant G. lutea seeds increased with seed age, indicating that seeds remained viable after forgoing germination in the previous year. Habitat-specific differences in seed germination increased with seed age, with germination fractions being lowest in moist hay meadows. This suggests that the negative effects of anoxic conditions became more pronounced as seeds aged in hay meadows. Conversely, seed dormancy was equal among habitats. The absence of a long-term persistent seed bank has important implications for the management of both nuisance and endangered-plant populations. In the case of V. album and G. lutea, re-colonization of habitats from the seed bank is unlikely after established plants have been removed.     

Mortalities of kelp-forest fishes associated with large oceanic waves off central California, 1982–1983

Synopsis Observations of three incidents of the mass mortality of nearshore fishes are reported; each corresponded to periods of high-amplitude, long-period swells during the 1982–1983 El Niño event along the coast of central California. Members of the nearshore kelp forest fish assemblage, primarily of the genusSebastes, accounted for 96% of the observed mortalities andS. mystinus (blue rockfish) alone accounted for 72%.     

Spatial distribution of small pelagic fish larvae in the Gulf of California and its relation to the El Nino 1997-1998

Sardinops caeruleus larvae were almost absent during the ElNiño 1997–1998, when the sea surface temperature(SST) increased by 4°C. After the event, these larvae appearedin high abundance between 18 and 22°C SST. Engraulis mordaxlarvae were recorded in high abundance during the El Niño(17 and 25°C SST) and afterwards (14 and 22°C). Duringthe event, they tended to concentrate close to Isla Angel deLa Guarda and Isla Tiburón, the coldest zone. The ElNiño conditions affected the spawning of S.caeruleusmore than E.mordax, with the latter more adapted to strong environmentalchanges.     

Influence of climate and community composition on the population demography of pasture species in semi-arid Australia

Substantial recruitment of Callitris glaucophylla in woodland, Sclerolaena birchii in cleared woodland, and Astrebla lappacea in grassland is related to catastrophic events of the past century in the form of interactions between climate, the impact of European land use (sheep, cattle, rabbits) and the rabbit myxoma epizootic. The direct effect of rainfall on the demography of these species and its indirect effect through competition via suites of accompanying plant species are examined. Major long-term changes in plant populations are generated by extreme sequential events rather than by random isolated events. One of the most potent climatic agents for change in eastern Australia is the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon.     

西北太平洋柔鱼栖息地环境因子分析及其对资源丰度的影响

柔鱼(Ommastrephes bartramii)是西北太平洋海域重要的经济头足类,短生命周期的生活史特征决定其资源丰度易受海洋环境变化影响。根据1998—2010年我国鱿钓船生产统计资料和环境资料,包括海表温度(SST)和叶绿素浓度(Chl-a)数据,结合Nio 3.4区海表温距平值(SSTA),分析了SST和Chl-a浓度的季节和年际变化特征,并分别探讨了SST和Chl-a浓度距平值与Nio 3.4区SSTA及柔鱼资源丰度之间的关系。结果表明,产卵场海域Chl-a浓度冬季高夏季低,SST则夏季高冬季低;育肥场Chl-a和SST均呈夏季高冬季低变化,但6—12月份Chl-a浓度波动明显。产卵场和育肥场SST及Chl-a浓度年际变化明显。同时研究发现,厄尔尼诺、拉尼娜和正常年份时Nio 3.4区SSTA对柔鱼产卵场和育肥场环境的调控机制不同:拉尼娜和正常年份产卵场和育肥场温度上升,叶绿素浓度变化幅度小,有利于资源量补充,产量较高;厄尔尼诺年份温度和叶绿素均降低,尤其育肥场叶绿素浓度,对资源量产生不利影响,产量锐减。研究利用多元线性回归分别建立了基于温度和叶绿素的柔鱼资源丰度的预测模型,两者均能很好的预测柔鱼资源丰度(P0.05),但基于叶绿素的预测模型优于温度模型。     

Holocene sand beaches of southern California: ENSO forcing and coastal processes on millennial scales

A proxy record of sand beach accretion for the past 10,000 years has been assembled from radiocarbon dates on the Pismo clam, Tivela stultorum, in archaeological sites along the southern California coast. When this record is compared with numerous climate proxies, it appears that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) controls on wave climate and sediment flux have acted upon regional geomorphology at different sea levels to either accrete or erode the Holocene beaches of southern California. Tivela dates from the Santa Maria coast indicate that perennial sand beaches built by 9000 years ago in response to abundant riverine sediment contained by the natural groin at Point Sal, wave sheltering by the massive headland of Point Buchon, and Early Holocene El Niño events. On the western Santa Barbara coast, sand beaches were forming by 7000 years ago in response to high sand fluxes from the Santa Ynez Mountains to the many small littoral catchments, possibly aided by high local rates of uplift. Decline of these sand beach habitats 5000-4000 years ago coincides with increased El Niño-driven wave energy. In accord with slowing in sea-level rise ca. 6000 years ago, sand beaches were most widespread in the period 6000-5000 years ago on Estero Bay, the western Santa Barbara coast, and west of Point Dume. However, Tivela dates first appear 5000 years ago in the Oceanside and Silver Strand littoral cells of the San Diego region. This lag coincides with the Middle Holocene shift to a more variable climate and modern periodicity in El Niño events that increased sediment supply to the southern coast. The ontogeny of the littoral cells provides timelines for modeling coastal evolution with implications for sand beach ecology, prehistoric human coastal adaptations, and coastal planning for future climate change.     

The role of variable weather for the dynamics of a seed-seed predator system

Summary A simple model is presented describing the interaction between weather conditions, seed production of a longlived herb, Vincetoxicum hirundinaria (Asclepiadaceae), and abundance of a predispersal seed predator, Euphranta connexa (Diptera, Tephritidae). The model is used to investigate the role of weather-induced fluctuations in seed set on the interaction between plant and seed predator and the resulting longterm production of seeds escaping predispersal seed predation.As weather variability increases Euphranta populations become less effective in tracking their food resources, leading to increased longterm production of dispersing seeds. Occasional years of crop failure due to drought stress may thus in the long run be of benefit to the plant.     

Estimating scale-dependency in disturbance impacts: El Niños and giant kelp forests in the northeast Pacific

Recent discussions on scaling issues in ecology have emphasized that processes acting at a wide range of spatial and temporal scales influence ecosystems and thus there is no appropriate single scale at which ecological processes should be studied. This may be particularly true for environmental disturbances (e.g. El Niño) that occur over large geographic areas and encompass a wide range of scales relevant to ecosystem function. However, it may be possible to identify the scale(s) at which ecosystems are most strongly impacted by disturbances, and thus provide a measure by which their impacts can be most clearly described, by assessing scale-dependent changes in the patterns of variability in species abundance and distribution. This, in turn, may yield significant insight into the relative importance of the various forcing factors responsible for generating these impacts. The 1997–98 El Niño was one of the strongest El Niños ever recorded. I examined how this event impacted giant kelp populations in the northeast Pacific Ocean at 90 sites ranging from central Baja California, Mexico to central California, USA. These sites spanned the geographic range of giant kelp in the Northeast Pacific and were surveyed just before, immediately following, several months after, more than 1 year after, and nearly 2 years after the El Niño. I used a hierarchical sample design to compare these impacts at five spatial scales spanning six orders of magnitude, from a few meters to more than 1,000 km. Variance Components Analyses revealed that the El Niño shifted control over giant kelp abundance from factors acting at the scale of a few meters (local control) to factors operating over hundreds to thousands of kilometers (regional control). Moreover, El Niño resulted in the near-complete loss of all giant kelp throughout one-half of the species range in the northeast Pacific Ocean. Giant kelp recovery following El Niño was far more complex and variable at multiple spatial scales, presumably driven by numerous factors acting at those scales. Recovery returned local control of giant kelp populations within 6 months in southern California, and within 2 years in Baja California.     

Effects of El Niño-related Drought on Freshwater and Brackish-water Fishes in Suriname, South America

Droughts associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affected fishes of brackish-water lagoons, freshwater swamps and a rainforest creek in Suriname, South America. The mean rainfall in the period August to February in 22 El Niño years was 76.6% of the mean rainfall in the same months of non-El Niño years. In the period 1900–1999, three out of four years in which an extreme drought (rainfall less then 60% of the mean value) occurred were El Niño years. The recent 1997/1998 ENSO event caused the second most severe drought in a 100-year record. Drying up of brackish-water lagoons, freshwater swamps and rainforest creeks was observed during El Niño-related droughts. In the lagoons ariid catfish died first, followed by snook, tilapia, mullet and tarpon, respectively. Landings of lagoon fish were positively correlated with rainfall in the period August–February. During the El Niño-related drought we observed failure of reproduction in three species of callichthyid armoured catfish in both coastal freshwater swamps and a rainforest creek in the interior. In the El Niño year 1997/1998, the no flow period of the rainforest creek was extended by four months beyond the long dry season and the dissolved oxygen levels in the dry-season pools dropped to 1.27mg O₂l^–1 (as compared to 4.53mg O₂l^–1 under running water conditions). Other fish species of the rainforest creek also showed decreased reproductive success in the El Niño year. We suggest that the stochastic effects of El Niño-related drought may be an important non-equilibrium component in the ecology of neotropical inland fish communities.     

Life cycle of Calanus chilensis Brodsky in Bay of San Jorge,Antofagasta, Chile

The copepod Calanus chilensis is an endemic component of the zooplankton community in northern Chile. Size distributions of adult females, relative frequency of copepodid stages and relative numbers of adult males and nauplii, suggest the presence of at least 6 generations during the year, although the species seems to continuously reproduce through all seasons. Temperature profiles from 0 to 175 m indicated the presence of the El Niño current during March and April. Surface temperature ranged between 21.1 and 13.1 °C. Warm waters during the El Niño event seemed to affect the body size of adult females and the normal course of cohort development, although the population tended to recover rapidly through the subsequent months. We discuss the role of oceanographic conditions in controlling the life cycle of this species, as well as its continuous growth through the year compared to other Calanus species.     

Larval dynamics of the sand crab, Emerita analoga, off the central Oregon coast during a strong El Nino period

Populations of the sand crab, Emerita analoga, are well establishedon the California coast. However, populations in Oregon occursporadically and appear to be restocked by larvae drifting northfrom California. Due to increased northward transport in winterduring El Niño events, we would expect that larval recruitmentto northern populations should be higher during these periods.This hypothesis was tested by comparing larval abundances betweennon-El Niño and El Niño years, 1997 and 1998,respectively. In 1997, larval abundances and seasonality weresimilar to historical data from 1969–71. First zoeal (Z1)stage larvae were present during these summers, but in low numbers,indicating that E.analoga spawned off the coast of Oregon. In1998, strong larval recruitment from the south occurred, demonstratedby a large number of fifth zoeal stage (Z5) larvae collectedoff Oregon in April and May. The large numbers of Z1 found insummer 1998 indicate that the Z5, which arrived from Californiaearlier that spring, successfully recruited to adulthood andreproduced. These data indicate that Oregon E.analoga populationsare probably dependent on larvae travelling from Californiain the Davidson Current. It follows that this species couldbe used as an indicator of coastal current fluctuations suchas those seen during El Niño events.     

El Niño mass coral mortality: a test of resource limitation in a coral reef damselfish population

Summary The mass mortality of reef corals in the eastern Pacific as a result of the 1982–1983 El Niño oceanographic anomaly permitted the first large scale test of resource limitation for a coral reef fish. Population densities of territorial herbivorous damselfish did not respond to the massive regional increase in space available for the cultivation of algal food following the El Niño event. The proportion of juveniles in the population was low and new recruits were uncommon, indicating that recruitment rates rather than resource supply probably control the abundance of this coral reef damselfish.