Superinfection and the evolution of resistance to antimalarial drugs

A major issue in the control of malaria is the evolution of drug resistance. Ecological theory has demonstrated that pathogen superinfection and the resulting within-host competition influences the evolution of specific traits. Individuals infected with Plasmodium falciparum are consistently infected by multiple parasites; however, while this probably alters the dynamics of resistance evolution, there are few robust mathematical models examining this issue. We developed a general theory for modelling the evolution of resistance with host superinfection and examine: (i) the effect of transmission intensity on the rate of resistance evolution; (ii) the importance of different biological costs of resistance; and (iii) the best measure of the frequency of resistance. We find that within-host competition retards the ability and slows the rate at which drug-resistant parasites invade, particularly as the transmission rate increases. We also find that biological costs of resistance that reduce transmission are less important than reductions in the duration of drug-resistant infections. Lastly, we find that random sampling of the population for resistant parasites is likely to significantly underestimate the frequency of resistance. Considering superinfection in mathematical models of antimalarial drug resistance may thus be important for generating accurate predictions of interventions to contain resistance.     

Molecular mechanisms of drug resistance in natural Leishmania populations vary with genetic background

The evolution of drug-resistance in pathogens is a major global health threat. Elucidating the molecular basis of pathogen drug-resistance has been the focus of many studies but rarely is it known whether a drug-resistance mechanism identified is universal for the studied pathogen; it has seldom been clarified whether drug-resistance mechanisms vary with the pathogen's genotype. Nevertheless this is of critical importance in gaining an understanding of the complexity of this global threat and in underpinning epidemiological surveillance of pathogen drug resistance in the field. This study aimed to assess the molecular and phenotypic heterogeneity that emerges in natural parasite populations under drug treatment pressure. We studied lines of the protozoan parasite Leishmania (L.) donovani with differential susceptibility to antimonial drugs; the lines being derived from clinical isolates belonging to two distinct genetic populations that circulate in the leishmaniasis endemic region of Nepal. Parasite pathways known to be affected by antimonial drugs were characterised on five experimental levels in the lines of the two populations. Characterisation of DNA sequence, gene expression, protein expression and thiol levels revealed a number of molecular features that mark antimonial-resistant parasites in only one of the two populations studied. A final series of in vitro stress phenotyping experiments confirmed this heterogeneity amongst drug-resistant parasites from the two populations. These data provide evidence that the molecular changes associated with antimonial-resistance in natural Leishmania populations depend on the genetic background of the Leishmania population, which has resulted in a divergent set of resistance markers in the Leishmania populations. This heterogeneity of parasite adaptations provides severe challenges for the control of drug resistance in the field and the design of molecular surveillance tools for widespread applicability.     

Predicting the unpredictable: transmission of drug-resistant HIV

We use a mathematical model to understand (from 1996 to 2001) and to predict (from 2001 to 2005) the evolution of the epidemic of drug-resistant HIV in San Francisco. We predict the evolutionary trajectories for 1,000 different drug-resistant strains with each strain having a different fitness relative to a drug-sensitive strain. We calculate that the current prevalence of resistance is high, and predict it will continue to rise. In contrast, we calculate that transmission of resistance is currently low, and predict it will remain low. We show that the epidemic of resistance is being generated mainly by the conversion of drug-sensitive cases to drug-resistant cases, and not by the transmission of resistant strains. We also show that transmission of resistant strains has not increased the overall number of new HIV infections. Our results indicate that transmission of resistant strains is, and will remain, a relatively minor public health problem.     

Environmental, pharmacological and genetic influences on the spread of drug-resistant malaria

Plasmodium falciparum malaria is subject to artificial selection from antimalarial drugs that select for drug-resistant parasites. We describe and apply a flexible new approach to investigate how epistasis, inbreeding, selection heterogeneity and multiple simultaneous drug deployments interact to influence the spread of drug-resistant malaria. This framework recognizes that different human 'environments' within which treatment may occur (such as semi- and non-immune humans taking full or partial drug courses) influence the genetic interactions between parasite loci involved in resistance. Our model provides an explanation for how the rate of spread varies according to different malaria transmission intensities, why resistance might stabilize at intermediate frequencies and also identifies several factors that influence the decline of resistance after a drug is removed. Results suggest that studies based on clinical outcomes might overestimate the spread of resistant parasites, especially in high-transmission areas. We show that when transmission decreases, prevalence might decrease without a corresponding change in frequency of resistance and that this relationship is heavily influenced by the extent of linkage disequilibrium between loci. This has important consequences on the interpretation of data from areas where control is being successful and suggests that reducing transmission might have less impact on the spread of resistance than previously expected.     

Emergence of drug resistance: implications for antiviral control of pandemic influenza

Given the danger of an unprecedented spread of the highly pathogenic avian influenza strain H5N1 in humans, and great challenges to the development of an effective influenza vaccine, antiviral drugs will probably play a pivotal role in combating a novel pandemic strain. A critical limitation to the use of these drugs is the evolution of highly transmissible drug-resistant viral mutants. Here, we develop a mathematical model to evaluate the potential impact of an antiviral treatment strategy on the emergence of drug resistance and containment of a pandemic. The results show that elimination of the wild-type strain depends crucially on both the early onset of treatment in indexed cases and population-level treatment. Given the probable delay of 0.5-1 day in seeking healthcare and therefore initiating therapy, the findings indicate that a single strategy of antiviral treatment will be unsuccessful at controlling the spread of disease if the reproduction number of the wild-type strain (R0s) exceeds 1.4. We demonstrate the possible occurrence of a self-sustaining epidemic of resistant strain, in terms of its transmission fitness relative to the wild-type, and the reproduction number R0s. Considering reproduction numbers estimated for the past three pandemics, the findings suggest that an uncontrollable pandemic is likely to occur if resistant viruses with relative transmission fitness above 0.4 emerge. While an antiviral strategy is crucial for containing a pandemic, its effectiveness depends critically on timely and strategic use of drugs.     

Stress,drugs and the evolution of reproductive restraint in malaria parasites

Life-history theory predicts that sexually reproducing organisms have evolved to resolve resource-allocation trade-offs between growth/survival versus reproduction, and current versus future reproduction. Malaria parasites replicate asexually in their vertebrate hosts, but must reproduce sexually to infect vectors and be transmitted to new hosts. As different specialized stages are required for these functions, the division of resources between these life-history components is a fundamental evolutionary problem. Here, we test how drug-sensitive and drug-resistant isolates of the human malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum resolve the trade-off between in-host replication and between-host transmission when exposed to treatment with anti-malarial drugs. Previous studies have shown that parasites increase their investment in sexual stages when exposed to stressful conditions, such as drugs. However, we demonstrate that sensitive parasites facultatively decrease their investment in sexual stages when exposed to drugs. In contrast to previous studies, we tested parasites from a region where treatment with anti-malarial drugs is common and transmission is seasonal. We hypothesize that when exposed to drugs, parasites invest in their survival and future transmission by diverting resources from reproduction to replication. Furthermore, as drug-resistant parasites did not adjust their investment when exposed to drugs, we suggest that parasites respond to changes in their proliferation (state) rather the presence of drugs.     

Existing Infection Facilitates Establishment and Density of Malaria Parasites in Their Mosquito Vector

Very little is known about how vector-borne pathogens interact within their vector and how this impacts transmission. Here we show that mosquitoes can accumulate mixed strain malaria infections after feeding on multiple hosts. We found that parasites have a greater chance of establishing and reach higher densities if another strain is already present in a mosquito. Mixed infections contained more parasites but these larger populations did not have a detectable impact on vector survival. Together these results suggest that mosquitoes taking multiple infective bites may disproportionally contribute to malaria transmission. This will increase rates of mixed infections in vertebrate hosts, with implications for the evolution of parasite virulence and the spread of drug-resistant strains. Moreover, control measures that reduce parasite prevalence in vertebrate hosts will reduce the likelihood of mosquitoes taking multiple infective feeds, and thus disproportionally reduce transmission. More generally, our study shows that the types of strain interactions detected in vertebrate hosts cannot necessarily be extrapolated to vectors.     

Quantifying Transmission Investment in Malaria Parasites

Many microparasites infect new hosts with specialized life stages, requiring a subset of the parasite population to forgo proliferation and develop into transmission forms. Transmission stage production influences infectivity, host exploitation, and the impact of medical interventions like drug treatment. Predicting how parasites will respond to public health efforts on both epidemiological and evolutionary timescales requires understanding transmission strategies. These strategies can rarely be observed directly and must typically be inferred from infection dynamics. Using malaria as a case study, we test previously described methods for inferring transmission stage investment against simulated data generated with a model of within-host infection dynamics, where the true transmission investment is known. We show that existing methods are inadequate and potentially very misleading. The key difficulty lies in separating transmission stages produced by different generations of parasites. We develop a new approach that performs much better on simulated data. Applying this approach to real data from mice infected with a single Plasmodium chabaudi strain, we estimate that transmission investment varies from zero to 20%, with evidence for variable investment over time in some hosts, but not others. These patterns suggest that, even in experimental infections where host genetics and other environmental factors are controlled, parasites may exhibit remarkably different patterns of transmission investment.     

Virulence, drug sensitivity and transmission success in the rodent malaria, Plasmodium chabaudi

Here, we test the hypothesis that virulent malaria parasites are less susceptible to drug treatment than less virulent parasites. If true, drug treatment might promote the evolution of more virulent parasites (defined here as those doing more harm to hosts). Drug-resistance mechanisms that protect parasites through interactions with drug molecules at the sub-cellular level are well known. However, parasite phenotypes associated with virulence might also help parasites survive in the presence of drugs. For example, rapidly replicating parasites might be better able to recover in the host if drug treatment fails to eliminate parasites. We quantified the effects of drug treatment on the in-host survival and between-host transmission of rodent malaria (Plasmodium chabaudi) parasites which differed in virulence and had never been previously exposed to drugs. In all our treatment regimens and in single- and mixed-genotype infections, virulent parasites were less sensitive to pyrimethamine and artemisinin, the two antimalarial drugs we tested. Virulent parasites also achieved disproportionately greater transmission when exposed to pyrimethamine. Overall, our data suggest that drug treatment can select for more virulent parasites. Drugs targeting transmission stages (such as artemisinin) may minimize the evolutionary advantage of virulence in drug-treated infections.     

On being the right size: the impact of population size and stochastic effects on the evolution of drug resistance in hospitals and the community

The evolution of drug resistant bacteria is a severe public health problem, both in hospitals and in the community. Currently, some countries aim at concentrating highly specialized services in large hospitals in order to improve patient outcomes. Emergent resistant strains often originate in health care facilities, but it is unknown to what extent hospital size affects resistance evolution and the resulting spillover of hospital-associated pathogens to the community. We used two published datasets from the US and Ireland to investigate the effects of hospital size and controlled for several confounders such as antimicrobial usage, sampling frequency, mortality, disinfection and length of stay. The proportion of patients acquiring both sensitive and resistant infections in a hospital strongly correlated with hospital size. Moreover, we observe the same pattern for both the percentage of resistant infections and the increase of hospital-acquired infections over time. One interpretation of this pattern is that chance effects in small hospitals impede the spread of drug-resistance. To investigate to what extent the size distribution of hospitals can directly affect the prevalence of antibiotic resistance, we use a stochastic epidemiological model describing the spread of drug resistance in a hospital setting as well as the interaction between one or several hospitals and the community. We show that the level of drug resistance typically increases with population size: In small hospitals chance effects cause large fluctuations in pathogen population size or even extinctions, both of which impede the acquisition and spread of drug resistance. Finally, we show that indirect transmission via environmental reservoirs can reduce the effect of hospital size because the slow turnover in the environment can prevent extinction of resistant strains. This implies that reducing environmental transmission is especially important in small hospitals, because such a reduction not only reduces overall transmission but might also facilitate the extinction of resistant strains. Overall, our study shows that the distribution of hospital sizes is a crucial factor for the spread of drug resistance.     

Genome Analysis of Multi- and Extensively-Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis from KwaZulu-Natal,South Africa

The KZN strain family of Mycobacterium tuberculosis is a highly virulent strain endemic to the KwaZulu-Natal region of South Africa, which has recently experienced an outbreak of extensively-drug resistant tuberculosis. To investigate the causes and evolution of drug-resistance, we determined the DNA sequences of several clinical isolates - one drug-susceptible, one multi-drug resistant, and nine extensively drug-resistant - using whole-genome sequencing. Analysis of polymorphisms among the strains is consistent with the drug-susceptibility profiles, in that well-known mutations are observed that are correlated with resistance to isoniazid, rifampicin, kanamycin, ofloxacin, ethambutol, and pyrazinamide. However, the mutations responsible for rifampicin resistance in rpoB and pyrazinamide in pncA are in different nucleotide positions in the multi-drug-resistant and extensively drug-resistant strains, clearly showing that they acquired these mutations independently, and that the XDR strain could not have evolved directly from the MDR strain (though it could have arisen from another similar MDR strain). Sequencing of eight additional XDR strains from other areas of KwaZulu-Natal shows that they have identical drug resistant mutations to the first one sequenced, including the same polymorphisms at sites associated with drug resistance, supporting the theory that this represents a case of clonal expansion.     

Loss and Recovery of Genetic Diversity in Adapting Populations of HIV

The evolution of drug resistance in HIV occurs by the fixation of specific, well-known, drug-resistance mutations, but the underlying population genetic processes are not well understood. By analyzing within-patient longitudinal sequence data, we make four observations that shed a light on the underlying processes and allow us to infer the short-term effective population size of the viral population in a patient. Our first observation is that the evolution of drug resistance usually occurs by the fixation of one drug-resistance mutation at a time, as opposed to several changes simultaneously. Second, we find that these fixation events are accompanied by a reduction in genetic diversity in the region surrounding the fixed drug-resistance mutation, due to the hitchhiking effect. Third, we observe that the fixation of drug-resistance mutations involves both hard and soft selective sweeps. In a hard sweep, a resistance mutation arises in a single viral particle and drives all linked mutations with it when it spreads in the viral population, which dramatically reduces genetic diversity. On the other hand, in a soft sweep, a resistance mutation occurs multiple times on different genetic backgrounds, and the reduction of diversity is weak. Using the frequency of occurrence of hard and soft sweeps we estimate the effective population size of HIV to be ( confidence interval ). This number is much lower than the actual number of infected cells, but much larger than previous population size estimates based on synonymous diversity. We propose several explanations for the observed discrepancies. Finally, our fourth observation is that genetic diversity at non-synonymous sites recovers to its pre-fixation value within 18 months, whereas diversity at synonymous sites remains depressed after this time period. These results improve our understanding of HIV evolution and have potential implications for treatment strategies.     

Tolerance is the key to understanding antimalarial drug resistance

The evolution of antimalarial drug resistance is often considered to be a single-stage process in which parasites are either fully resistant or completely sensitive to a drug. However, this does not take into account the important intermediate stage of drug tolerance. Drug-tolerant parasites are killed by the high serum concentrations of drugs that occur during direct treatment of the human host. However, these parasites can spread in the human population because many drugs persist long after treatment, and the tolerant parasites can infect people in which there are residual levels of the drugs. This intermediate stage between fully sensitive and fully resistant parasites has far-reaching implications for the evolution of drug-resistant malaria.     

The malarial pigment in rat infected erythrocytes and its interaction with chloroquine. A M?ssbauer effect study

M?ssbauer studies of rat erythrocytes infected by Plasmodium berghei malaria parasites, using 57Fe-enriched rat red blood cells, were carried out in order to determine the physical parameters which characterize the malarial pigment iron and to test the effect of the widely used antimalaria drug, chloroquine, on these parameters. The iron in the malarial pigment which is derived from hemoglobin digestion by the intracellular parasite was found to be trivalent, high spin, with M?ssbauer parameters which are significantly different from those of any known iron porphyrin containing compound. No difference was found between the parameters obtained in erythrocytes infected by drug-sensitive and drug-resistant strains of P. berghei, both before and after the treatment with chloroquine. The iron compound consists of microaggregates, about 30 A in diameter. These are somewhat larger in chloroquine-resistant strains and tend to increase in size in chloroquine-sensitive strains upon treatment with the drug. M?ssbauer spectra of erythrocytes infected by a chloroquine-resistant strain revealed pigment iron in relative amounts invariable of those found in chloroquine-sensitive strains, demonstrating that drug-resistant parasites indeed digest hemoglobin.     

Modeling Quasispecies and Drug Resistance in Hepatitis C Patients Treated with a Protease Inhibitor

Telaprevir, a novel hepatitis C virus (HCV) NS3-4A serine protease inhibitor, has demonstrated substantial antiviral activity in patients infected with HCV. However, drug-resistant HCV variants were detected in vivo at relatively high frequency a few days after drug administration. Here we use a two-strain mathematical model to explain the rapid emergence of drug resistance in HCV patients treated with telaprevir monotherapy. We examine the effects of backward mutation and liver cell proliferation on the preexistence of the mutant virus and the competition between wild-type and drug-resistant virus during therapy. We also extend the two-strain model to a general model with multiple viral strains. Mutations during therapy only have a minor effect on the dynamics of various viral strains, although they are capable of generating low levels of HCV variants that would otherwise be completely suppressed because of fitness disadvantages. Liver cell proliferation may not affect the pretreatment frequency of mutant variants, but is able to influence the quasispecies dynamics during therapy. It is the relative fitness of each mutant strain compared with wild-type that determines which strain(s) will dominate the virus population. This study provides a theoretical framework for exploring the prevalence of preexisting mutant variants and the evolution of drug resistance during treatment with other HCV protease inhibitors or polymerase inhibitors.     

Enhanced transmission of drug-resistant parasites to mosquitoes following drug treatment in rodent malaria

The evolution of drug resistant Plasmodium parasites is a major challenge to effective malaria control. In theory, competitive interactions between sensitive parasites and resistant parasites within infections are a major determinant of the rate at which parasite evolution undermines drug efficacy. Competitive suppression of resistant parasites in untreated hosts slows the spread of resistance; competitive release following treatment enhances it. Here we report that for the murine model Plasmodium chabaudi, co-infection with drug-sensitive parasites can prevent the transmission of initially rare resistant parasites to mosquitoes. Removal of drug-sensitive parasites following chemotherapy enabled resistant parasites to transmit to mosquitoes as successfully as sensitive parasites in the absence of treatment. We also show that the genetic composition of gametocyte populations in host venous blood accurately reflects the genetic composition of gametocytes taken up by mosquitoes. Our data demonstrate that, at least for this mouse model, aggressive chemotherapy leads to very effective transmission of highly resistant parasites that are present in an infection, the very parasites which undermine the long term efficacy of front-line drugs.     

Antiviral resistance and the control of pandemic influenza: the roles of stochasticity, evolution and model details

Antiviral drugs, most notably the neuraminidase inhibitors, are an important component of control strategies aimed to prevent or limit any future influenza pandemic. The potential large-scale use of antiviral drugs brings with it the danger of drug resistance evolution. A number of recent studies have shown that the emergence of drug-resistant influenza could undermine the usefulness of antiviral drugs for the control of an epidemic or pandemic outbreak. While these studies have provided important insights, the inherently stochastic nature of resistance generation and spread, as well as the potential for ongoing evolution of the resistant strain have not been fully addressed. Here, we study a stochastic model of drug resistance emergence and consecutive evolution of the resistant strain in response to antiviral control during an influenza pandemic. We find that taking into consideration the ongoing evolution of the resistant strain does not increase the probability of resistance emergence; however, it increases the total number of infecteds if a resistant outbreak occurs. Our study further shows that taking stochasticity into account leads to results that can differ from deterministic models. Specifically, we find that rapid and strong control cannot only contain a drug sensitive outbreak, it can also prevent a resistant outbreak from occurring. We find that the best control strategy is early intervention heavily based on prophylaxis at a level that leads to outbreak containment. If containment is not possible, mitigation works best at intermediate levels of antiviral control. Finally, we show that the results are not very sensitive to the way resistance generation is modeled.     

Prevalence of drug-resistant human immunodeficiency virus type 1 in therapy-naive patients and usefulness of genotype testing

In the present study, we performed genotypic drug-resistance testing in 116 therapy-naive human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1)-infected patients between 1999 and 2002 at Nagoya National Hospital, Japan. The prevalence of drug-resistant HIV-1 with one or more major mutations significantly increased from 5.3% (4/75) in 1999-2001 to 17.1% (7/41) in 2002 (P=0.05), suggesting the spread of drug-resistant HIV-1. We identified a patient who possessed a protease (PR) inhibitor-resistant HIV-1 with a major mutation consisting of L90M before the initiation of therapy. The patient was administered zidovudine, lamivudine, and efavirenz as highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), as PR inhibitors were excluded based on the result of the drug-resistance testing. The treatment succeeded in strongly suppressing the proliferation of drug-resistant HIV-1 and concomitantly increased CD4 cell counts. Thus, we conclude that drug-resistance testing prior to the initiation of therapy is important for therapy-naive patients to devise the optimum therapy regimen for each individual.     

Exploitation of the same trophic link favors convergence of larval life-history strategies in complex life cycle helminths

Switching from one host to the next is a critical life-history transition in parasites with complex life cycles. Growth and mortality rates are thought to influence the optimal time and size at transmission, but these rates are difficult to measure in parasites. The parasite life cycle, in particular the trophic link along which transmission occurs, may be a reasonable proxy for these rates, leading to the hypothesis that life cycle should shape life-history strategy. We compiled data on the size and age at infectivity for trophically transmitted helminths (i.e., acanthocephalans, cestodes, and nematodes), and then categorized species into trophic links (e.g., planktonic crustaceans to fish, insects to terrestrial vertebrates, etc.). Comparative analyses that explicitly included stabilizing selection within trophic links fit the data significantly better than random walk models, indicating that parasites with different life cycles have different optimal times/sizes for host switching. The major helminth groups have often independently evolved similar life cycles, and we show that this has frequently led to convergent and/or parallel evolution of size and age at infectivity. This suggests that for particular life cycles there are universal optimal transmission strategies, applicable to widely divergent taxa, although the cases of parallelism might indicate that lineage-specific constraints sometimes prevent evolution to a single adaptive peak.     

The road to drug resistance in Mycobacterium tuberculosis

Sequencing of serial isolates of extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis highlights how drug resistance develops within a single patient and reveals unexpected levels of pathogen diversity.Tuberculosis (TB) remains a crucial public health problem, with increasing drug resistance posing a challenge to current control efforts. Treatment regimens for drug-susceptible TB are onerous, requiring a minimum of six months of treatment with four antitubercular drugs. There are patients who develop multi-drug-resistant (MDR), extensively drug-resistant (XDR) and totally drug-resistant (TDR) forms, which are successively more difficult to treat. In these circumstances, treatment regimens involve the use of a larger number of less-effective drugs, which have a narrower therapeutic margin.In many bacteria, drug-resistance determinants are carried on mobile genetic elements. However, in Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), drug resistance is exclusively associated with point mutations and chromosomal rearrangements. Poor or intermittent therapy has long been thought to be the major explanation for drug resistance, and it is believed that drug-resistant strains develop through the sequential fixation of a small set of mutations, such that the pathogen samples only a small proportion of possible evolutionary paths [1].The application of whole-genome sequencing (WGS) has revealed previously underappreciated levels of genetic diversity within circulating Mtb populations, and the implications of this diversity for transmission and disease outcomes are increasingly being acknowledged. By contrast, mycobacterial heterogeneity within a single host, and any concomitant biological or clinical significance, has been explored but seldom documented.In a study published in this issue of Genome Biology, Eldholm and colleagues apply WGS to investigate the evolution from drug-sensitive to XDR-TB within a single patient [2]. This adds to an emerging body of evidence that suggests that intra-host microbial diversity is substantial and might have significant consequences when inferring transmission. There are few instances, if any, in the literature where this has been investigated in such detail.