Latitudinal Variations in Seasonal Activity of Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV): A Global Comparative Review

Background

There is limited information on influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) seasonal patterns in tropical areas, although there is renewed interest in understanding the seasonal drivers of respiratory viruses.

Methods

We review geographic variations in seasonality of laboratory-confirmed influenza and RSV epidemics in 137 global locations based on literature review and electronic sources. We assessed peak timing and epidemic duration and explored their association with geography and study settings. We fitted time series model to weekly national data available from the WHO influenza surveillance system (FluNet) to further characterize seasonal parameters.

Results

Influenza and RSV activity consistently peaked during winter months in temperate locales, while there was greater diversity in the tropics. Several temperate locations experienced semi-annual influenza activity with peaks occurring in winter and summer. Semi-annual activity was relatively common in tropical areas of Southeast Asia for both viruses. Biennial cycles of RSV activity were identified in Northern Europe. Both viruses exhibited weak latitudinal gradients in the timing of epidemics by hemisphere, with peak timing occurring later in the calendar year with increasing latitude (P<0.03). Time series model applied to influenza data from 85 countries confirmed the presence of latitudinal gradients in timing, duration, seasonal amplitude, and between-year variability of epidemics. Overall, 80% of tropical locations experienced distinct RSV seasons lasting 6 months or less, while the percentage was 50% for influenza.

Conclusion

Our review combining literature and electronic data sources suggests that a large fraction of tropical locations experience focused seasons of respiratory virus activity in individual years. Information on seasonal patterns remains limited in large undersampled regions, included Africa and Central America. Future studies should attempt to link the observed latitudinal gradients in seasonality of viral epidemics with climatic and population factors, and explore regional differences in disease transmission dynamics and attack rates.     

Inter-Seasonal Influenza is Characterized by Extended Virus Transmission and Persistence

The factors that determine the characteristic seasonality of influenza remain enigmatic. Current models predict that occurrences of influenza outside the normal surveillance season within a temperate region largely reflect the importation of viruses from the alternate hemisphere or from equatorial regions in Asia. To help reveal the drivers of seasonality we investigated the origins and evolution of influenza viruses sampled during inter-seasonal periods in Australia. To this end we conducted an expansive phylogenetic analysis of 9912, 3804, and 3941 hemagglutinnin (HA) sequences from influenza A/H1N1pdm, A/H3N2, and B, respectively, collected globally during the period 2009-2014. Of the 1475 viruses sampled from Australia, 396 (26.8% of Australian, or 2.2% of global set) were sampled outside the monitored temperate influenza surveillance season (1 May – 31 October). Notably, rather than simply reflecting short-lived importations of virus from global localities with higher influenza prevalence, we documented a variety of more complex inter-seasonal transmission patterns including “stragglers” from the preceding season and “heralds” of the forthcoming season, and which included viruses sampled from clearly temperate regions within Australia. We also provide evidence for the persistence of influenza B virus between epidemic seasons, in which transmission of a viral lineage begins in one season and continues throughout the inter-seasonal period into the following season. Strikingly, a disproportionately high number of inter-seasonal influenza transmission events occurred in tropical and subtropical regions of Australia, providing further evidence that climate plays an important role in shaping patterns of influenza seasonality.     

Contrasting the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of influenza spatial transmission

In the past decade, rapid increases in the availability of high-resolution molecular and epidemiological data, combined with developments in statistical and computational methods to simulate and infer migration patterns, have provided key insights into the spatial dynamics of influenza A viruses in humans. In this review, we contrast findings from epidemiological and molecular studies of influenza virus transmission at different spatial scales. We show that findings are broadly consistent in large-scale studies of inter-regional or inter-hemispheric spread in temperate regions, revealing intense epidemics associated with multiple viral introductions, followed by deep troughs driven by seasonal bottlenecks. However, aspects of the global transmission dynamics of influenza viruses are still debated, especially with respect to the existence of tropical source populations experiencing high levels of genetic diversity and the extent of prolonged viral persistence between epidemics. At the scale of a country or community, epidemiological studies have revealed spatially structured diffusion patterns in seasonal and pandemic outbreaks, which were not identified in molecular studies. We discuss the role of sampling issues in generating these conflicting results, and suggest strategies for future research that may help to fully integrate the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of influenza virus over space and time.     

Temporal Patterns of Influenza A and B in Tropical and Temperate Countries: What Are the Lessons for Influenza Vaccination?

IntroductionDetermining the optimal time to vaccinate is important for influenza vaccination programmes. Here, we assessed the temporal characteristics of influenza epidemics in the Northern and Southern hemispheres and in the tropics, and discuss their implications for vaccination programmes.MethodsThis was a retrospective analysis of surveillance data between 2000 and 2014 from the Global Influenza B Study database. The seasonal peak of influenza was defined as the week with the most reported cases (overall, A, and B) in the season. The duration of seasonal activity was assessed using the maximum proportion of influenza cases during three consecutive months and the minimum number of months with ≥80% of cases in the season. We also assessed whether co-circulation of A and B virus types affected the duration of influenza epidemics.Results212 influenza seasons and 571,907 cases were included from 30 countries. In tropical countries, the seasonal influenza activity lasted longer and the peaks of influenza A and B coincided less frequently than in temperate countries. Temporal characteristics of influenza epidemics were heterogeneous in the tropics, with distinct seasonal epidemics observed only in some countries. Seasons with co-circulation of influenza A and B were longer than influenza A seasons, especially in the tropics.DiscussionOur findings show that influenza seasonality is less well defined in the tropics than in temperate regions. This has important implications for vaccination programmes in these countries. High-quality influenza surveillance systems are needed in the tropics to enable decisions about when to vaccinate.     

Stochastic processes are key determinants of short-term evolution in influenza a virus

Understanding the evolutionary dynamics of influenza A virus is central to its surveillance and control. While immune-driven antigenic drift is a key determinant of viral evolution across epidemic seasons, the evolutionary processes shaping influenza virus diversity within seasons are less clear. Here we show with a phylogenetic analysis of 413 complete genomes of human H3N2 influenza A viruses collected between 1997 and 2005 from New York State, United States, that genetic diversity is both abundant and largely generated through the seasonal importation of multiple divergent clades of the same subtype. These clades cocirculated within New York State, allowing frequent reassortment and generating genome-wide diversity. However, relatively low levels of positive selection and genetic diversity were observed at amino acid sites considered important in antigenic drift. These results indicate that adaptive evolution occurs only sporadically in influenza A virus; rather, the stochastic processes of viral migration and clade reassortment play a vital role in shaping short-term evolutionary dynamics. Thus, predicting future patterns of influenza virus evolution for vaccine strain selection is inherently complex and requires intensive surveillance, whole-genome sequencing, and phenotypic analysis.     

Transmission of a 2009 pandemic influenza virus shows a sensitivity to temperature and humidity similar to that of an H3N2 seasonal strain

In temperate regions of the world, influenza epidemics follow a highly regular seasonal pattern, in which activity peaks in midwinter. Consistently with this epidemiology, we have shown previously that the aerosol transmission of a seasonal H3N2 influenza virus is most efficient under cold, dry conditions. With the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, an exception to the standard seasonality of influenza developed: during 2009 in the Northern Hemisphere, an unusually high level of influenza virus activity over the spring and summer months was followed by a widespread epidemic which peaked in late October, approximately 2.5 months earlier than usual. Herein we show that aerosol transmission of a 2009 pandemic strain shows a dependence on relative humidity and temperature very similar to that of a seasonal H3N2 influenza virus. Our data indicate that the observed differences in the timings of outbreaks with regard to the seasons are most likely not due to intrinsic differences in transmission between the pandemic H1N1 and seasonal H3N2 influenza viruses.     

Reconstruction of the Evolutionary Dynamics of A(H3N2) Influenza Viruses Circulating in Italy from 2004 to 2012

Background

Influenza A viruses are characterised by their rapid evolution, and the appearance of point mutations in the viral hemagglutinin (HA) domain causes seasonal epidemics. The A(H3N2) virus has higher mutation rate than the A(H1N1) virus. The aim of this study was to reconstruct the evolutionary dynamics of the A(H3N2) viruses circulating in Italy between 2004 and 2012 in the light of the forces driving viral evolution.

Methods

Phylodinamic analyses were made using a Bayesian method, and codon-specific positive selection acting on the HA coding sequence was evaluated.

Results

Global and local phylogenetic analyses showed that the Italian strains collected between 2004 and 2012 grouped into five significant Italian clades that included viral sequences circulating in different epidemic seasons. The time of the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) of the tree root was between May and December 2003. The tMRCA estimates of the major clades suggest that the origin of a new viral strain precedes the effective circulation of the strain in the Italian population by 6–31 months, thus supporting a central role of global migration in seeding the epidemics in Italy. The study of selection pressure showed that four codons were under positive selection, three of which were located in antigenic sites. Analysis of population dynamics showed the alternation of periods of exponential growth followed by a decrease in the effective number of infections corresponding to epidemic and inter-epidemic seasons.

Conclusions

Our analyses suggest that a complex interaction between the immune status of the population, migrations, and a few selective sweeps drive the influenza A(H3N2) virus evolution. Our findings suggest the possibility of the year-round survival of local strains even in temperate zones, a hypothesis that warrants further investigation.     

Molecular epidemiology of influenza A/H3N2 viruses circulating in Uganda

The increasing availability of complete influenza virus genomes is deepening our understanding of influenza evolutionary dynamics and facilitating the selection of vaccine strains. However, only one complete African influenza virus sequence is available in the public domain. Here we present a complete genome analysis of 59 influenza A/H3N2 viruses isolated from humans in Uganda during the 2008 and 2009 season. Isolates were recovered from hospital-based sentinel surveillance for influenza-like illnesses and their whole genome sequenced. The viruses circulating during these two seasons clearly differed from each other phylogenetically. They showed a slow evolution away from the 2009/10 recommended vaccine strain (A/Brisbane/10/07), instead clustering with the 2010/11 recommended vaccine strain (A/Perth/16/09) in the A/Victoria/208/09 clade, as observed in other global regions. All of the isolates carried the adamantane resistance marker S31N in the M2 gene and carried several markers of enhanced transmission; as expected, none carried any marker of neuraminidase inhibitor resistance. The hemagglutinin gene of the 2009 isolates differed from that of the 2008 isolates in antigenic sites A, B, D, and to a lesser extent, C and E indicating evidence of an early phylogenetic shift from the 2008 to 2009 viruses. The internal genes of the 2009 isolates were similar to those of one 2008 isolate, A/Uganda/MUWRP-050/2008. Another 2008 isolate had a truncated PB1-F2 protein. Whole genome sequencing can enhance surveillance of future seasonal changes in the viral genome which is crucial to ensure that selected vaccine strains are protective against the strains circulating in Eastern Africa. This data provides an important baseline for this surveillance. Overall the influenza virus activity in Uganda appears to mirror that observed in other regions of the southern hemisphere.     

Transmission of influenza B viruses in the guinea pig

Epidemic influenza is typically caused by infection with viruses of the A and B types and can result in substantial morbidity and mortality during a given season. Here we demonstrate that influenza B viruses can replicate in the upper respiratory tract of the guinea pig and that viruses of the two main lineages can be transmitted with 100% efficiency between inoculated and naïve animals in both contact and noncontact models. Our results also indicate that, like in the case for influenza A virus, transmission of influenza B viruses is enhanced at colder temperatures, providing an explanation for the seasonality of influenza epidemics in temperate climates. We therefore present, for the first time, a small animal model with which to study the underlying mechanisms of influenza B virus transmission.     

Influenza activity in Czechoslovakia and the USSR, 1980-1985

Between 1980 and 1985, Czechoslovakia had experienced 4 and the USSR 3 major influenza outbreaks. Of the 3 epidemic outbreaks in the USSR, 2 were associated with influenza B virus (in the 1980/81 and 1983/84 seasons) and 1 with influenza A virus of the H3N2 subtype. In the USSR, influenza A (H1N1) virus never predominated as a cause of epidemic during the 5 years period. In Czechoslovakia, 2 epidemics (in the 1980/81 and 1983/84 seasons) were due to influenza A (H1N1) virus. The epidemic in the 1981/82 season had two waves of unequal heights and a mixed type B and subtype A (H3N2) etiology; a two-wave epidemic associated with isolates of influenza A (H1N1) and influenza B viruses was also recorded in the 1983/84 season. The influenza A (H3N2) epidemic in 1983 was of explosive character. All influenza viruses circulating in the two countries between 1980 and 1985 were of the same antigenic profile, but were isolated from the epidemics that occurred in different influenza seasons. The virological surveillance revealed strains of virus closely related to drift variants detected from outbreaks in 1977-1979 and the new variants A/Chile 1/83, A/Philippines 2/82, A/Caen 1/84 and B/USSR 100/83.     

The global transmission and control of influenza

New strains of influenza spread around the globe via the movement of infected individuals. The global dynamics of influenza are complicated by different patterns of influenza seasonality in different regions of the world. We have released an open-source stochastic mathematical model of the spread of influenza across 321 major, strategically located cities of the world. Influenza is transmitted between cities via infected airline passengers. Seasonality is simulated by increasing the transmissibility in each city at the times of the year when influenza has been observed to be most prevalent. The spatiotemporal spread of pandemic influenza can be understood through clusters of global transmission and links between them, which we identify using the epidemic percolation network (EPN) of the model. We use the model to explain the observed global pattern of spread for pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009-2010 (pandemic H1N1 2009) and to examine possible global patterns of spread for future pandemics depending on the origin of pandemic spread, time of year of emergence, and basic reproductive number (). We also use the model to investigate the effectiveness of a plausible global distribution of vaccine for various pandemic scenarios. For pandemic H1N1 2009, we show that the biggest impact of vaccination was in the temperate northern hemisphere. For pandemics starting in the temperate northern hemisphere in May or April, vaccination would have little effect in the temperate southern hemisphere and a small effect in the tropics. With the increasing interconnectedness of the world's population, we must take a global view of infectious disease transmission. Our open-source, computationally simple model can help public health officials plan for the next pandemic as well as deal with interpandemic influenza.     

Unseasonal Transmission of H3N2 Influenza A Virus During the Swine-Origin H1N1 Pandemic

The initial wave of swine-origin influenza A virus (pandemic H1N1/09) in the United States during the spring and summer of 2009 also resulted in an increased vigilance and sampling of seasonal influenza viruses (H1N1 and H3N2), even though they are normally characterized by very low incidence outside of the winter months. To explore the nature of virus evolution during this influenza “off-season,” we conducted a phylogenetic analysis of H1N1 and H3N2 sequences sampled during April to June 2009 in New York State. Our analysis revealed that multiple lineages of both viruses were introduced and cocirculated during this time, as is typical of influenza virus during the winter. Strikingly, however, we also found strong evidence for the presence of a large transmission chain of H3N2 viruses centered on the south-east of New York State and which continued until at least 1 June 2009. These results suggest that the unseasonal transmission of influenza A viruses may be more widespread than is usually supposed.The recent emergence of swine-origin H1N1 influenza A virus (pandemic H1N1/09) in humans has heightened awareness of how the burden of morbidity and mortality due to influenza is associated with the appearance of new genetic variants (5) and of the genetic and epidemiological determinants of viral transmission (8). The emergence of pandemic H1N1/09 is also unprecedented in recorded history as it means that three antigenically distinct lineages of influenza A virus—pandemic H1N1/09 and the seasonal H1N1 and H3N2 viruses— currently cocirculate within human populations.Although the presence of multiple subtypes of influenza A virus may place an additional burden on public health resources, it also provides a unique opportunity to compare the patterns and dynamics of evolution in these viruses on a similar time scale. Indeed, one of the most interesting secondary effects of the current H1N1/09 pandemic has been an increased vigilance for cases of influenza-like illness and hence an intensified sampling of seasonal H1N1 and H3N2 viruses during the typical influenza “off-season” (i.e., spring-summer) in the northern hemisphere. Because the influenza season in the northern hemisphere generally runs from November through March, with a usual peak in January or February, influenza viruses sampled outside of this period are of special interest.The current model for the global spatiotemporal dynamics of influenza A virus is that the northern and southern hemispheres represent ecological “sinks” for this virus, with little ongoing viral transmission during the summer months (9). In contrast, more continual viral transmission occurs within the tropical “source” population (13) that is most likely centered on an intense transmission network in east and southeast Asia (10). However, the precise epidemiological and evolutionary reasons for this major geographic division, and for the seasonality of influenza A virus in general, remain uncertain (1, 4). Evidence for this “sink-source” ecological model is that viruses sampled from successive seasons in localities such as New York State do not usually form linked clusters on phylogenetic trees, indicating that they are not connected by direct transmission through the summer months (7). Similar conclusions can be drawn for the United States as a whole and point to multiple introductions of phylogenetically distinct lineages during the winter (6), followed by complex patterns of spatial diffusion (14). However, despite the growing epidemiological and phylogenetic data supporting this model, it is also evident that there is relatively little sequence data from seasonal influenza viruses that are sampled from April to October in the northern hemisphere. Hence, it is uncertain whether extended chains of transmission can occur during this time period, even though this may have an important bearing on our understanding of influenza seasonality.To address these issues, we examined the evolutionary behavior of seasonal H1N1 and H3N2 viruses as they cocirculated during a single time period—(late) April to June 2009—within a single locality (New York State). Not only are levels of influenza virus transmission in the northern hemisphere usually very low during this time period, but in this particular season the human host population was also experiencing the emerging epidemic of pandemic H1N1/09.     

Swine-origin influenza-virus-induced acute lung injury: Novel or classical pathogenesis?

Influenza viruses are common respiratory pathogens in humans and can cause serious infection that leads to the development of pneumonia. Due to their host-range diversity, genetic and antigenic diversity, and potential to reassort genetically in vivo, influenza A viruses are continual sources of novel influenza strains that lead to the emergence of periodic epidemics and outbreaks in humans. Thus, newly emerging viral diseases are always major threats to public health. In March 2009, a novel influenza virus suddenly emerged and caused a worldwide pandemic. The novel pandemic influenza virus was genetically and antigenically distinct from previous seasonal human influenza A/H1N1 viruses; it was identified to have originated from pigs, and further genetic analysis revealed it as a subtype of A/H1N1, thus later called a swine-origin influenza virus A/H1N1. Since the novel virus emerged, epidemiological surveys and research on experimental animal models have been conducted, and characteristics of the novel influenza virus have been determined but the exact mechanisms of pulmonary pathogenesis remain to be elucidated. In this editorial, we summarize and discuss the recent pandemic caused by the novel swine-origin influenza virus A/H1N1 with a focus on the mechanism of pathogenesis to obtain an insight into potential therapeutic strategies.     

Spatial,Temporal and Genetic Dynamics Characteristics of Influenza B Viruses in China, 1973–2018

Annual influenza B virus epidemics and outbreaks cause severe influenza diseases in humans and pose a threat to public health. China is an important epidemic area of influenza B viruses. However, the spatial, temporal transmission pathways and the demography history of influenza B viruses in China remain unknown. We collected the haemagglutinin gene sequences sampled of influenza B virus in China between 1973 and 2018. A Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo phylogeographic discrete approach was used to infer the spatial and temporal phylodynamics of influenza B virus. The Bayesian phylogeographic analysis of influenza B viruses showed that the North subtropical and South subtropical zones are the origins of the Victoria and Yamagata lineage viruses, respectively. Furthermore, the South temperate and North subtropical zones acted as transition nodes in the Victoria lineage virus dispersion network and that the North subtropical and Mid subtropical zones acted as transition nodes in the Yamagata lineage virus dispersion network. Our findings contribute to the knowledge regarding the spatial and temporal patterns of influenza B virus outbreaks in China.     

PML Suppresses Influenza Virus Replication by Promoting FBXW7 Expression

Virologica Sinica - Influenza A viruses (IAV) are responsible for seasonal flu epidemics, which can lead to high morbidity and mortality each year. Like other viruses, influenza virus can hijack...     

Cold-adapted pandemic 2009 H1N1 influenza virus live vaccine elicits cross-reactive immune responses against seasonal and H5 influenza A viruses

The rapid transmission of the pandemic 2009 H1N1 influenza virus (pH1N1) among humans has raised the concern of a potential emergence of reassortment between pH1N1 and highly pathogenic influenza strains, especially the avian H5N1 influenza virus. Here, we report that the cold-adapted pH1N1 live attenuated vaccine (CApH1N1) elicits cross-reactive immunity to seasonal and H5 influenza A viruses in the mouse model. Immunization with CApH1N1 induced both systemic and mucosal antibodies with broad reactivity to seasonal and H5 strains, including HAPI H5N1 and the avian H5N2 virus, providing complete protection against heterologous and heterosubtypic lethal challenges. Our results not only accentuate the merit of using live attenuated influenza virus vaccines in view of cross-reactivity but also represent the potential of CApH1N1 live vaccine for mitigating the clinical severity of infections that arise from reassortments between pH1N1 and highly pathogenic H5 subtype viruses.     

Environmental Predictors of Seasonal Influenza Epidemics across Temperate and Tropical Climates

Human influenza infections exhibit a strong seasonal cycle in temperate regions. Recent laboratory and epidemiological evidence suggests that low specific humidity conditions facilitate the airborne survival and transmission of the influenza virus in temperate regions, resulting in annual winter epidemics. However, this relationship is unlikely to account for the epidemiology of influenza in tropical and subtropical regions where epidemics often occur during the rainy season or transmit year-round without a well-defined season. We assessed the role of specific humidity and other local climatic variables on influenza virus seasonality by modeling epidemiological and climatic information from 78 study sites sampled globally. We substantiated that there are two types of environmental conditions associated with seasonal influenza epidemics: “cold-dry” and “humid-rainy”. For sites where monthly average specific humidity or temperature decreases below thresholds of approximately 11–12 g/kg and 18–21°C during the year, influenza activity peaks during the cold-dry season (i.e., winter) when specific humidity and temperature are at minimal levels. For sites where specific humidity and temperature do not decrease below these thresholds, seasonal influenza activity is more likely to peak in months when average precipitation totals are maximal and greater than 150 mm per month. These findings provide a simple climate-based model rooted in empirical data that accounts for the diversity of seasonal influenza patterns observed across temperate, subtropical and tropical climates.     

A non-VH1-69 heterosubtypic neutralizing human monoclonal antibody protects mice against H1N1 and H5N1 viruses

Influenza viruses are among the most important human pathogens and are responsible for annual epidemics and sporadic, potentially devastating pandemics. The humoral immune response plays an important role in the defense against these viruses, providing protection mainly by producing antibodies directed against the hemagglutinin (HA) glycoprotein. However, their high genetic variability allows the virus to evade the host immune response and the potential protection offered by seasonal vaccines. The emergence of resistance to antiviral drugs in recent years further limits the options available for the control of influenza. The development of alternative strategies for influenza prophylaxis and therapy is therefore urgently needed. In this study, we describe a human monoclonal antibody (PN-SIA49) that recognizes a highly conserved epitope located on the stem region of the HA and able to neutralize a broad spectrum of influenza viruses belonging to different subtypes (H1, H2 and H5). Furthermore, we describe its protective activity in mice after lethal challenge with H1N1 and H5N1 viruses suggesting a potential application in the treatment of influenza virus infections.