Survival of Gunnison sage‐grouse Centrocercus minimus in Colorado,USA

Gunnison sage‐grouse Centrocercus minimus has declined from their historic range and recent monitoring has provided evidence that some populations are continuing to decline. The evaluation of long‐term, population‐specific survival rates is important to assess population stability, and is necessary for conservation of this species of concern. We evaluated adult and yearling survival in two dynamically different populations of Gunnison sage‐grouse (a relatively large, more stable population and a small, declining population). Our goal was to examine the relationship between annual survival and population, and test hypotheses with regards to temporal effects (across years and within year) and individual effects (sex and age). We also evaluated the effects of snow depth on sage‐grouse survival. We tracked 214 radiomarked birds in the large population from 2005–2010 and 25 birds in the small population from 2007–2010. We found no evidence for a difference in survival between yearlings and adults nor did we find an influence of snow depth on survival. Males had the lowest survival during the lekking season (March–April); females had lower survival during the nesting and chick rearing season (May–July) and late‐summer and fall (August–October). The annual survival rate was 0.61 (SE 0.06) for females and 0.39 (SE 0.08) for males. Survival was constant across years and between the populations suggesting observed population changes during this time period are not a result of changes in adult survival.     

Phenology largely explains taller grass at successful nests in greater sage‐grouse

Much interest lies in the identification of manageable habitat variables that affect key vital rates for species of concern. For ground‐nesting birds, vegetation surrounding the nest may play an important role in mediating nest success by providing concealment from predators. Height of grasses surrounding the nest is thought to be a driver of nest survival in greater sage‐grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; sage‐grouse), a species that has experienced widespread population declines throughout their range. However, a growing body of the literature has found that widely used field methods can produce misleading inference on the relationship between grass height and nest success. Specifically, it has been demonstrated that measuring concealment following nest fate (failure or hatch) introduces a temporal bias whereby successful nests are measured later in the season, on average, than failed nests. This sampling bias can produce inference suggesting a positive effect of grass height on nest survival, though the relationship arises due to the confounding effect of plant phenology, not an effect on predation risk. To test the generality of this finding for sage‐grouse, we reanalyzed existing datasets comprising >800 sage‐grouse nests from three independent studies across the range where there was a positive relationship found between grass height and nest survival, including two using methods now known to be biased. Correcting for phenology produced equivocal relationships between grass height and sage‐grouse nest survival. Viewed in total, evidence for a ubiquitous biological effect of grass height on sage‐grouse nest success across time and space is lacking. In light of these findings, a reevaluation of land management guidelines emphasizing specific grass height targets to promote nest success may be merited.     

Spatially explicit models of seasonal habitat for greater sage‐grouse at broad spatial scales: Informing areas for management in Nevada and northeastern California

Defining boundaries of species' habitat across broad spatial scales is often necessary for management decisions, and yet challenging for species that demonstrate differential variation in seasonal habitat use. Spatially explicit indices that incorporate temporal shifts in selection can help overcome such challenges, especially for species of high conservation concern. Greater sage‐grouse Centrocercus urophasianus (hereafter, sage‐grouse), a sagebrush obligate species inhabiting the American West, represents an important case study because sage‐grouse exhibit seasonal habitat patterns, populations are declining in most portions of their range and are central to contemporary national land use policies. Here, we modeled spatiotemporal selection patterns for telemetered sage‐grouse across multiple study sites (1,084 sage‐grouse; 30,690 locations) in the Great Basin. We developed broad‐scale spatially explicit habitat indices that elucidated space use patterns (spring, summer/fall, and winter) and accounted for regional climatic variation using previously published hydrographic boundaries. We then evaluated differences in selection/avoidance of each habitat characteristic between seasons and hydrographic regions. Most notably, sage‐grouse consistently selected areas dominated by sagebrush with few or no conifers but varied in type of sagebrush selected by season and region. Spatiotemporal variation was most apparent based on availability of water resources and herbaceous cover, where sage‐grouse strongly selected upland natural springs in xeric regions but selected larger wet meadows in mesic regions. Additionally, during the breeding period in spring, herbaceous cover was selected strongly in the mesic regions. Lastly, we expanded upon an existing joint–index framework by combining seasonal habitat indices with a probabilistic index of sage‐grouse abundance and space use to produce habitat maps useful for sage‐grouse management. These products can serve as conservation planning tools that help predict expected benefits of restoration activities, while highlighting areas most critical to sustaining sage‐grouse populations. Our joint–index framework can be applied to other species that exhibit seasonal shifts in habitat requirements to help better guide conservation actions.     

Sagebrush treatments influence annual population change for greater sage‐grouse

Vegetation management practices have been applied worldwide to enhance habitats for a variety of wildlife species. Big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata spp.) communities, iconic to western North America, have been treated to restore herbaceous understories through chemical, mechanical, and prescribed burning practices thought to improve habitat conditions for greater sage‐grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) and other species. Although the response of structural attributes of sagebrush communities to treatments is well understood, there is a need to identify how treatments influence wildlife population dynamics. We investigated the influence of vegetation treatments occurring in Wyoming, United States, from 1994 to 2012 on annual sage‐grouse population change using yearly male sage‐grouse lek counts. We investigated this response across 1, 3, 5, and 10‐year post‐treatment lags to evaluate how the amount of treated sagebrush communities and time since treatment influenced population change, while accounting for climate, wildfire, and anthropogenic factors. With the exception of chemical treatments exhibiting a positive association with sage‐grouse population change 11 years after implementation, population response to treatments was either neutral or negative for at least 11 years following treatments. Our work supports a growing body of research advocating against treating big sagebrush habitats for sage‐grouse, particularly in Wyoming big sagebrush (A. t. wyomingensis). Loss and fragmentation of sagebrush habitats has been identified as a significant threat for remaining sage‐grouse populations. Because sagebrush may take decades to recover following treatments, we recommend practitioners use caution when designing projects to alter remaining habitats, especially when focused on habitat requirements for one life stage and a single species.     

A method for estimating population sex ratio for sage‐grouse using noninvasive genetic samples

Population sex ratio is an important metric for wildlife management and conservation, but estimates can be difficult to obtain, particularly for sexually monomorphic species or for species that differ in detection probability between the sexes. Noninvasive genetic sampling (NGS) using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) has become a common method for identifying sex from sources such as hair, feathers or faeces, and is a potential source for estimating sex ratio. If, however, PCR success is sex‐biased, naively using NGS could lead to a biased sex ratio estimator. We measured PCR success rates and error rates for amplifying the W and Z chromosomes from greater sage‐grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) faecal samples, examined how success and error rates for sex identification changed in response to faecal sample exposure time, and used simulation models to evaluate precision and bias of three sex assignment criteria for estimating population sex ratio with variable sample sizes and levels of PCR replication. We found PCR success rates were higher for females than males and that choice of sex assignment criteria influenced the bias and precision of corresponding sex ratio estimates. Our simulations demonstrate the importance of considering the interplay between the sex bias of PCR success, number of genotyping replicates, sample size, true population sex ratio and accuracy of assignment rules for designing future studies. Our results suggest that using faecal DNA for estimating the sex ratio of sage‐grouse populations has great potential and, with minor adaptations and similar marker evaluations, should be applicable to numerous species.     

West Nile virus: pending crisis for greater sage-grouse

Scientists have feared that emerging infectious diseases could complicate efforts to conserve rare and endangered species, but quantifying impacts has proven difficult until now. We report unexpected impacts of West Nile virus (WNv) on radio‐marked greater sage‐grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), a species that has declined 45–80% and is endangered in Canada and under current consideration for federal listing in the US. We show that WNv reduced late‐summer survival an average of 25% in four radio‐marked populations in the western US and Canada. Serum from 112 sage‐grouse collected after the outbreak show that none had antibodies, suggesting that they lack resistance. The spread of WNv represents a significant new stressor on sage‐grouse and probably other at‐risk species. While managing habitat might lessen its impact on sage‐grouse populations, WNv has left wildlife and public health officials scrambling to address surface water and vector control issues in western North America.     

Temporal patterns in natality and mortality of three threatened antelope species in North Africa: Oryx dammah,Addax nasomaculatus and Nanger dama

Long‐term population studies on large mammals are rare. Here, we have examined the threatened scimitar‐horned oryx, addax and dama gazelle's populations over the last 20 years in Bou Hedma National Park. Using monthly count data of the three studied species collected since 1995, we examined their population trends. Using autocorrelation analyses, we discovered endogenous natural cyclical fluctuations in the numbers of each species, with a periodicity of approximately 3 years. For all three studied species which seem to be opportunistic breeders, births and deaths occurred throughout the year, although with notable seasonality. By means of cross‐correlation, we discovered that during the first 7 years for which data were available, addax numbers were positively correlated with those of dama and inversely correlated with numbers of oryx. This pattern reversed during the following 4‐year period. The number of oryx was negatively correlated with dama during the first 4 years and then became positively correlated during the subsequent 7‐year period. Thus, we draw attention to difference in response to environmental and anthropogenic factors. Incorporating fundamental long‐term population data into developing management approaches, especially for potentially competitive species, is vital for their future long‐term survival and the success of conservation actions.     

Modeling ecological minimum requirements for distribution of greater sage‐grouse leks: implications for population connectivity across their western range,U.S.A

Greater sage‐grouse Centrocercus urophasianus (Bonaparte) currently occupy approximately half of their historical distribution across western North America. Sage‐grouse are a candidate for endangered species listing due to habitat and population fragmentation coupled with inadequate regulation to control development in critical areas. Conservation planning would benefit from accurate maps delineating required habitats and movement corridors. However, developing a species distribution model that incorporates the diversity of habitats used by sage‐grouse across their widespread distribution has statistical and logistical challenges. We first identified the ecological minimums limiting sage‐grouse, mapped similarity to the multivariate set of minimums, and delineated connectivity across a 920,000 km² region. We partitioned a Mahalanobis D² model of habitat use into k separate additive components each representing independent combinations of species–habitat relationships to identify the ecological minimums required by sage‐grouse. We constructed the model from abiotic, land cover, and anthropogenic variables measured at leks (breeding) and surrounding areas within 5 km. We evaluated model partitions using a random subset of leks and historic locations and selected D² (k = 10) for mapping a habitat similarity index (HSI). Finally, we delineated connectivity by converting the mapped HSI to a resistance surface. Sage‐grouse required sagebrush‐dominated landscapes containing minimal levels of human land use. Sage‐grouse used relatively arid regions characterized by shallow slopes, even terrain, and low amounts of forest, grassland, and agriculture in the surrounding landscape. Most populations were interconnected although several outlying populations were isolated because of distance or lack of habitat corridors for exchange. Land management agencies currently are revising land‐use plans and designating critical habitat to conserve sage‐grouse and avoid endangered species listing. Our results identifying attributes important for delineating habitats or modeling connectivity will facilitate conservation and management of landscapes important for supporting current and future sage‐grouse populations.     

Restoring Sage‐grouse nesting habitat through removal of early successional conifer

Conifer woodlands have expanded into sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystems and degrade habitat for sagebrush obligate species such as the Greater Sage‐grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus). Conifer management is increasing despite a lack of empirical evidence assessing outcomes to grouse and their habitat. Although assessments of vegetation recovery after conifer removal are common, comparisons of successional trends with habitat guidelines or actual data on habitat used by sage‐grouse is lacking. We assessed impacts of conifer encroachment on vegetation characteristics known to be important for sage‐grouse nesting. Using a controlled repeated measures design, we then evaluated vegetation changes for 3 years after conifer removal. We compared these results to data from 356 local sage‐grouse nests, rangewide nesting habitat estimates, and published habitat guidelines. We measured negative effects of conifer cover on many characteristics important for sage‐grouse nesting habitat including percent cover of forbs, grasses, and shrubs, and species richness of forbs and shrubs. In untreated habitat, herbaceous vegetation cover was slightly below the cover at local nest sites, while shrub cover and sagebrush cover were well below cover at the nest sites. Following conifer removal, we measured increases in herbaceous vegetation, primarily grasses, and sagebrush height. Our results indicate that conifer abundance can decrease habitat suitability for nesting sage‐grouse. Additionally, conifer removal can improve habitat suitability for nesting sage‐grouse within 3 years, and trajectories indicate that the habitat may continue to improve in the near future.     

Range‐wide patterns of greater sage‐grouse persistence

Aim Greater sage‐grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), a shrub‐steppe obligate species of western North America, currently occupies only half its historical range. Here we examine how broad‐scale, long‐term trends in landscape condition have affected range contraction. Location Sagebrush biome of the western USA. Methods Logistic regression was used to assess persistence and extirpation of greater sage‐grouse range based on landscape conditions measured by human population (density and population change), vegetation (percentage of sagebrush habitat), roads (density of and distance to roads), agriculture (cropland, farmland and cattle density), climate (number of severe and extreme droughts) and range periphery. Model predictions were used to identify areas where future extirpations can be expected, while also explaining possible causes of past extirpations. Results Greater sage‐grouse persistence and extirpation were significantly related to sagebrush habitat, cultivated cropland, human population density in 1950, prevalence of severe droughts and historical range periphery. Extirpation of sage‐grouse was most likely in areas having at least four persons per square kilometre in 1950, 25% cultivated cropland in 2002 or the presence of three or more severe droughts per decade. In contrast, persistence of sage‐grouse was expected when at least 30 km from historical range edge and in habitats containing at least 25% sagebrush cover within 30 km. Extirpation was most often explained (35%) by the combined effects of peripherality (within 30 km of range edge) and lack of sagebrush cover (less than 25% within 30 km). Based on patterns of prior extirpation and model predictions, we predict that 29% of remaining range may be at risk. Main Conclusions Spatial patterns in greater sage‐grouse range contraction can be explained by widely available landscape variables that describe patterns of remaining sagebrush habitat and loss due to cultivation, climatic trends, human population growth and peripherality of populations. However, future range loss may relate less to historical mechanisms and more to recent changes in land use and habitat condition, including energy developments and invasions by non‐native species such as cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) and West Nile virus. In conjunction with local measures of population performance, landscape‐scale predictions of future range loss may be useful for prioritizing management and protection. Our results suggest that initial conservation efforts should focus on maintaining large expanses of sagebrush habitat, enhancing quality of existing habitats, and increasing habitat connectivity.     

Differential influences of local subpopulations on regional diversity and differentiation for greater sage‐grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus)

The distribution of spatial genetic variation across a region can shape evolutionary dynamics and impact population persistence. Local population dynamics and among‐population dispersal rates are strong drivers of this spatial genetic variation, yet for many species we lack a clear understanding of how these population processes interact in space to shape within‐species genetic variation. Here, we used extensive genetic and demographic data from 10 subpopulations of greater sage‐grouse to parameterize a simulated approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) model and (i) test for regional differences in population density and dispersal rates for greater sage‐grouse subpopulations in Wyoming, and (ii) quantify how these differences impact subpopulation regional influence on genetic variation. We found a close match between observed and simulated data under our parameterized model and strong variation in density and dispersal rates across Wyoming. Sensitivity analyses suggested that changes in dispersal (via landscape resistance) had a greater influence on regional differentiation, whereas changes in density had a greater influence on mean diversity across all subpopulations. Local subpopulations, however, varied in their regional influence on genetic variation. Decreases in the size and dispersal rates of central populations with low overall and net immigration (i.e. population sources) had the greatest negative impact on genetic variation. Overall, our results provide insight into the interactions among demography, dispersal and genetic variation and highlight the potential of ABC to disentangle the complexity of regional population dynamics and project the genetic impact of changing conditions.     

The influence of locus number and information content on species delimitation: an empirical test case in an endangered Mexican salamander

Perhaps the most important recent advance in species delimitation has been the development of model‐based approaches to objectively diagnose species diversity from genetic data. Additionally, the growing accessibility of next‐generation sequence data sets provides powerful insights into genome‐wide patterns of divergence during speciation. However, applying complex models to large data sets is time‐consuming and computationally costly, requiring careful consideration of the influence of both individual and population sampling, as well as the number and informativeness of loci on species delimitation conclusions. Here, we investigated how locus number and information content affect species delimitation results for an endangered Mexican salamander species, Ambystoma ordinarium. We compared results for an eight‐locus, 137‐individual data set and an 89‐locus, seven‐individual data set. For both data sets, we used species discovery methods to define delimitation models and species validation methods to rigorously test these hypotheses. We also used integrated demographic model selection tools to choose among delimitation models, while accounting for gene flow. Our results indicate that while cryptic lineages may be delimited with relatively few loci, sampling larger numbers of loci may be required to ensure that enough informative loci are available to accurately identify and validate shallow‐scale divergences. These analyses highlight the importance of striking a balance between dense sampling of loci and individuals, particularly in shallowly diverged lineages. They also suggest the presence of a currently unrecognized, endangered species in the western part of A. ordinarium's range.     

The genetic network of greater sage‐grouse: Range‐wide identification of keystone hubs of connectivity

Genetic networks can characterize complex genetic relationships among groups of individuals, which can be used to rank nodes most important to the overall connectivity of the system. Ranking allows scarce resources to be guided toward nodes integral to connectivity. The greater sage‐grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) is a species of conservation concern that breeds on spatially discrete leks that must remain connected by genetic exchange for population persistence. We genotyped 5,950 individuals from 1,200 greater sage‐grouse leks distributed across the entire species’ geographic range. We found a small‐world network composed of 458 nodes connected by 14,481 edges. This network was composed of hubs—that is, nodes facilitating gene flow across the network—and spokes—that is, nodes where connectivity is served by hubs. It is within these hubs that the greatest genetic diversity was housed. Using indices of network centrality, we identified hub nodes of greatest conservation importance. We also identified keystone nodes with elevated centrality despite low local population size. Hub and keystone nodes were found across the entire species’ contiguous range, although nodes with elevated importance to network‐wide connectivity were found more central: especially in northeastern, central, and southwestern Wyoming and eastern Idaho. Nodes among which genes are most readily exchanged were mostly located in Montana and northern Wyoming, as well as Utah and eastern Nevada. The loss of hub or keystone nodes could lead to the disintegration of the network into smaller, isolated subnetworks. Protecting both hub nodes and keystone nodes will conserve genetic diversity and should maintain network connections to ensure a resilient and viable population over time. Our analysis shows that network models can be used to model gene flow, offering insights into its pattern and process, with application to prioritizing landscapes for conservation.     

Sampling related individuals within ponds biases estimates of population structure in a pond‐breeding amphibian

Effective conservation and management of pond‐breeding amphibians depends on the accurate estimation of population structure, demographic parameters, and the influence of landscape features on breeding‐site connectivity. Population‐level studies of pond‐breeding amphibians typically sample larval life stages because they are easily captured and can be sampled nondestructively. These studies often identify high levels of relatedness between individuals from the same pond, which can be exacerbated by sampling the larval stage. Yet, the effect of these related individuals on population genetic studies using genomic data is not yet fully understood. Here, we assess the effect of within‐pond relatedness on population and landscape genetic analyses by focusing on the barred tiger salamanders (Ambystoma mavortium) from the Nebraska Sandhills. Utilizing genome‐wide SNPs generated using a double‐digest RADseq approach, we conducted standard population and landscape genetic analyses using datasets with and without siblings. We found that reduced sample sizes influenced parameter estimates more than the inclusion of siblings, but that within‐pond relatedness led to the inference of spurious population structure when analyses depended on allele frequencies. Our landscape genetic analyses also supported different models across datasets depending on the spatial resolution analyzed. We recommend that future studies not only test for relatedness among larval samples but also remove siblings before conducting population or landscape genetic analyses. We also recommend alternative sampling strategies to reduce sampling siblings before sequencing takes place. Biases introduced by unknowingly including siblings can have significant implications for population and landscape genetic analyses, and in turn, for species conservation strategies and outcomes.     

How reliable are harvesting data for analyses of spatio‐temporal population dynamics?

Harvest data are commonly used as proxy for count data, especially in studies of long‐term temporal and spatial patterns of population fluctuations. However, usually the concurrence of the conclusions based on different types of data is impossible to verify due to the lack of count data. Here, we use annual (1964–2004) harvest and population census data for capercaillie, black grouse and hazel grouse from 14 game management districts covering Finland, and demonstrate some mismatch in the information that these data sets provide. Overall, linear regressions of annual harvest against population count give a reasonable fit, but the slopes are less than 1 in every species. Harvest bags have been proportionally larger in north and eastern Finland than in southwestern Finland, with marked species‐specific differences. Considering population variation, the CV% in the census data (30–50%) is consistently smaller than it is in the harvest data (60–70%). Most importantly, conclusions on the spatio‐temporal patterns of the population dynamics are different if based on harvest rather than count data. In capercaillie, synchrony decreases faster with distance according to the harvest data, while in black grouse and hazel grouse the census data show the steeper decline. In addition, the autocorrelation coefficients in the census time series are higher in capercaillie and black grouse than in harvest data, but in hazel grouse the opposite is true. Finally, the parameter estimates for a second order autoregressive model using different data sets differ, and these differences are species‐specific. Despite the fact that annual harvest is a positive and linear function of annual grouse population density, the pattern of population dynamics derived from the bag data is different from that shown by the census data. This result urges caution in using wildlife bag data as reliable indices of population dynamics. deceased August 2008.     

Demographic consequences of climate change and land cover help explain a history of extirpations and range contraction in a declining snake species

Developing conservation strategies for threatened species increasingly requires understanding vulnerabilities to climate change, in terms of both demographic sensitivities to climatic and other environmental factors, and exposure to variability in those factors over time and space. We conducted a range‐wide, spatially explicit climate change vulnerability assessment for Eastern Massasauga (Sistrurus catenatus), a declining endemic species in a region showing strong environmental change. Using active season and winter adult survival estimates derived from 17 data sets throughout the species' range, we identified demographic sensitivities to winter drought, maximum precipitation during the summer, and the proportion of the surrounding landscape dominated by agricultural and urban land cover. Each of these factors was negatively associated with active season adult survival rates in binomial generalized linear models. We then used these relationships to back‐cast adult survival with dynamic climate variables from 1950 to 2008 using spatially explicit demographic models. Demographic models for 189 population locations predicted known extant and extirpated populations well (AUC = 0.75), and models based on climate and land cover variables were superior to models incorporating either of those effects independently. These results suggest that increasing frequencies and severities of extreme events, including drought and flooding, have been important drivers of the long‐term spatiotemporal variation in a demographic rate. We provide evidence that this variation reflects nonadaptive sensitivity to climatic stressors, which are contributing to long‐term demographic decline and range contraction for a species of high‐conservation concern. Range‐wide demographic modeling facilitated an understanding of spatial shifts in climatic suitability and exposure, allowing the identification of important climate refugia for a dispersal‐limited species. Climate change vulnerability assessment provides a framework for linking demographic and distributional dynamics to environmental change, and can thereby provide unique information for conservation planning and management.     

Past and potential future population dynamics of three grouse species using ecological and whole genome coalescent modeling

Studying demographic history of species provides insight into how the past has shaped the current levels of overall biodiversity and genetic composition of species, but also how these species may react to future perturbations. Here we investigated the demographic history of the willow grouse (Lagopus lagopus), rock ptarmigan (Lagopus muta), and black grouse (Tetrao tetrix) through the Late Pleistocene using two complementary methods and whole genome data. Species distribution modeling (SDM) allowed us to estimate the total range size during the Last Interglacial (LIG) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) as well as to indicate potential population subdivisions. Pairwise Sequentially Markovian Coalescent (PSMC) allowed us to assess fluctuations in effective population size across the same period. Additionally, we used SDM to forecast the effect of future climate change on the three species over the next 50 years. We found that SDM predicts the largest range size for the cold‐adapted willow grouse and rock ptarmigan during the LGM. PSMC captured intraspecific population dynamics within the last glacial period, such that the willow grouse and rock ptarmigan showed multiple bottlenecks signifying recolonization events following the termination of the LGM. We also see signals of population subdivision during the last glacial period in the black grouse, but more data are needed to strengthen this hypothesis. All three species are likely to experience range contractions under future warming, with the strongest effect on willow grouse and rock ptarmigan due to their limited potential for northward expansion. Overall, by combining these two modeling approaches, we have provided a multifaceted examination of the biogeography of these species and how they have responded to climate change in the past. These results help us understand how cold‐adapted species may respond to future climate changes.     

Contemporary breeding biology of critically endangered Regent Honeyeaters: implications for conservation

Identifying factors influencing the demographics of threatened species is essential for conservation, but a lack of comprehensive demographic data often impedes the effective conservation of rare and mobile species. We monitored breeding of critically endangered and semi‐nomadic Regent Honeyeaters Anthochaera phrygia (global population c. 100 pairs) over 3 years throughout their range. Overall nest success probability (0.317) was highly spatially variable and considerably lower than previous estimates for this (and many other honeyeater) species, as was productivity of successful nests (mean 1.58 juveniles fledged). Nest surveillance revealed high predation rates by a range of birds and arboreal mammals as the primary cause of nest failure. An estimated 12% of pairs either failed to establish a territory or their nests did not reach the egg stage. We also found a male bias to the adult sex ratio, with an estimated 1.18 males per female. Juvenile survival for the first 2 weeks after fledging was high (86%). Management interventions that aim to increase nest success in areas of low nest survival must be investigated to address an apparent decline in reproductive output and avoid extinction of the Regent Honeyeater. We show that temporal and spatial variation in the breeding success of rare and highly mobile species can be quantified with robust population monitoring using sampling regimens that account for their life histories. Understanding the causes of spatio‐temporal variation in breeding success can enhance conservation outcomes for such species through spatially and temporally targeted recovery actions.     

Long‐term mark‐and‐recapture study of a freshwater mussel reveals patterns of habitat use and an association between survival and river discharge

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Census data aggregation decisions can affect population‐level inference in heterogeneous populations

1. Conservation and population management decisions often rely on population models parameterized using census data. However, the sampling regime, precision, sample size, and methods used to collect census data are usually heterogeneous in time and space. Decisions about how to derive population‐wide estimates from this patchwork of data are complicated and may bias estimated population dynamics, with important implications for subsequent management decisions.
2. Here, we explore the impact of site selection and data aggregation decisions on pup survival estimates, and downstream estimates derived from parameterized matrix population models (MPMs), using a long‐term dataset on grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) pup survival from southwestern Wales. The spatiotemporal and methodological heterogeneity of the data are fairly typical for ecological census data and it is, therefore, a good model to address this topic.
3. Data were collected from 46 sampling locations (sites) over 25 years, and we explore the impact of data handling decisions by varying how years and sampling locations are combined to parameterize pup survival in population‐level MPMs. We focus on pup survival because abundant high‐quality data are available on this developmental stage.
4. We found that survival probability was highly variable with most variation being at the site level, and poorly correlated among sampling sites. This variation could generate marked differences in predicted population dynamics depending on sampling strategy. The sample size required for a confident survival estimate also varied markedly geographically.
5. We conclude that for populations with highly variable vital rates among sub‐populations, site selection and data aggregation methods are important. In particular, including peripheral or less frequently used areas can introduce substantial variation into population estimates. This is likely to be context‐dependent, but these choices, including the use of appropriate weights when summarizing across sampling areas, should be explored to ensure that management actions are successful.