未来气候变化对粤港澳地区杜鹃花适生区的影响

位于我国南方丘陵的粤港澳地区拥有丰富杜鹃花资源,长期以来受杜鹃花不适宜在高温低海拔地区进行开发利用等思想的影响,该区域野生杜鹃花的开发、保护与利用研究寥寥无几,但低海拔野生杜鹃花在气候变化下正面临较高灭绝风险。基于粤港澳地区杜鹃花属(Rhododendron)14个筛选后的野生物种229个标本点位数据,利用最大熵模型(Maxent)模拟粤港澳地区野生杜鹃花在2070年低、中、高3种温室气体排放模式(RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5)下的适生区范围大小与方向的变化及其主导环境变量。研究发现未来粤港澳地区野生杜鹃花的适生区范围整体呈缩小趋势,且随着温室气体排放浓度的增加,即从RCP2.6到RCP8.5,越来越多杜鹃花物种适生区呈现向高纬度、高海拔方向迁移的趋势;对杜鹃花分布影响最大的变量为最冷月的最低温、温度季节性和最干月降水量。本研究通过探究气候变化对野生杜鹃花适生区范围的影响,以期为粤港澳地区野生杜鹃花的保护与开发利用提供科学指导。     

东北地区5个物种潜在栖息地变化与优化保护规划

气候变化广泛影响着物种多样性及其分布变迁。优化模型模拟结果,获取气候变化影响下的优先保护区域将为制定应对气候变化的物种保护政策或行动提供理论依据,提升保护绩效。选取东北地区五种代表性动物,包括黑熊(Ursus thibetanus)、驼鹿(Alces alces)、水獭(Lutra lutra)、紫貂(Martes zibellina)及黑嘴松鸡(Tetrao parvirostris);结合最大熵模型(Maxent)模拟在不同RCP情景下未来3个年代(2030s,2050s,2070s)的物种潜在栖息地。根据九个常用气候模式的评价结果,获取东北地区合适的气候模式,了解气候变化对物种潜在栖息地的影响,同时开展物种保护规划,识别保护空缺,为应对气候变化、保持生物多样性提供支持。结果显示,在气候变化背景下物种潜在栖息地面积整体呈现下降趋势,但不同气候模式之间存在差异;评价结果推荐CCSM4、Nor ESM1-M、Had GEM2-AO及GFDL-CM3气候模式,推荐在东北地区使用以上气候模式进行物种未来潜在分布的研究。5个物种潜在栖息地平均面积变化率分别为-62.16%,-73.93%,-78.46%(2030s,2050s,2070s)。综合5个重点保护物种的保护优先区,大兴安岭的呼中、汗马与额尔古纳国家级自然保护区,延边地区的天佛指山、老爷岭东北虎、珲春东北虎与汪清原麝国家级自然保护区,长白山国家级自然保护区是气候变化下物种保护的热点区域。     

Where will species on the move go? Insights from climate connectivity modelling across European terrestrial habitats

Climate change can induce species range shifts. However, the intensity of climate change, the intrinsic dispersal ability of species and the anthropization of landscapes are impeding species movements in most cases. In this context, preserving and promoting climate corridors for species to migrate from their current habitats to their future climatically similar habitats is an important strategy for preventing species extinction. Climate connectivity modelling is a tool that can identify these potential movement pathways. Here, we aimed to model connectivity between climate analogues across Europe under various ecological assumptions and climate change scenarios, in order to identify areas of high potential connectivity and to quantify variation in connectivity across a range of hypotheses. We also overlapped connectivity maps with protected areas to determine whether climate connectivity was sufficiently protected. We showed that climatic connectivity did not differ much between different scenarios of climate change, but was strongly dependent on species’ dispersal assumptions. It was also relatively similar to a scenario of non-climatic connectivity. Therefore, it may be feasible to anticipate the effect of climate change on species movements regardless of the future trajectory of climate, but the implementation of protection strategies for multiple species will certainly prove complex. Overall, protected areas were located in the regions of high and stable connectivity, but some countries lack the appropriate protection schemes, especially regarding strong protections. Our results have the potential to serve in the construction of land cover change scenarios to identify the best strategies to improve climate connectivity.     

Zonation of ground beetles (Coleoptera: Carabidae) and spiders (Araneida) in salt marshes at the North and the Baltic Sea and the impact of the predicted sea level increase

The ground beetles and spiders of two salt marshes at the German Northand Baltic Sea coast were investigated by pitfall traps in 1997 and 1998. Whilethe sites at the North Sea coast are tidal salt marshes, the salt marshes at theBaltic Sea are not influenced by tides. Pitfall traps were installed in agradient from 20 to 150 cm above MHT (mean high tide: 157cm + NN, NN: 500 cm above 0 at Amsterdam gauge) atthe North Sea coast or NN at the Baltic Sea coast at six or sevensampling elevations, each with five replicates. Conductivity, water content, organic substance,frequency or duration of floodings, sand content and pH of the soil weredetermined. The flooding regime is the major factor controlling the zonation ofinvertebrates. Two and three invertebrate assemblages at the North and BalticSea, respectively, were distinguished. These corresponded well with thevegetational zones. The border between the two zones was at 60–80cm above MHT at the North Sea. The three zones at the Baltic Seaextended between 20 and 30 cm, 40 to 80 cm and 100 to150 cm above NN. The elevation of the mean abundance of speciesabove MHT or NN was calculated. A tide simulation experiment resulted in ashifting population and in an increasing activity under a tidal regime aspredicted for the global climate change conditions in 2050. From the actualelevation of the mean abundance, the habitat size of salt marsh species wascalculated for a moderate and worse scenario of global climate change. Habitatreduction becomes highest for species of the lower salt marsh zone. Under worseconditions the gradiental length of habitat will only amount to a maximum of 20m at the slopes of the dikes.     

Using species distributions models for designing conservation strategies of Tropical Andean biodiversity under climate change

Biodiversity in the Tropical Andes is under continuous threat from anthropogenic activities. Projected changes in climate will likely exacerbate this situation. Using species distribution models, we assess possible future changes in the diversity and climatic niche size of an unprecedented number of species for the region. We modeled a broad range of taxa (11,012 species of birds and vascular plants), including both endemic and widespread species and provide a comprehensive estimation of climate change impacts on the Andes. We find that if no dispersal is assumed, by 2050s, more than 50% of the species studied are projected to undergo reductions of at least 45% in their climatic niche, whilst 10% of species could be extinct. Even assuming unlimited dispersal, most of the Andean endemics (comprising ∼5% of our dataset) would become severely threatened (>50% climatic niche loss). While some areas appear to be climatically stable (e.g. Pichincha and Imbabura in Ecuador; and Nariño, Cauca, Valle del Cauca and Putumayo in Colombia) and hence depict little diversity loss and/or potential species gains, major negative impacts were also observed. Tropical high Andean grasslands (páramos and punas) and evergreen montane forests, two key ecosystems for the provision of environmental services in the region, are projected to experience negative changes in species richness and high rates of species turnover. Adapting to these impacts would require a landscape-network based approach to conservation, including protected areas, their buffer zones and corridors. A central aspect of such network is the implementation of an integrated landscape management approach based on sustainable management and restoration practices covering wider areas than currently contemplated.     

Alien vascular plants in Iceland: Diversity,spatial patterns,temporal trends,and the impact of climate change

The present study provides first comprehensive and up-to-date results on alien plant taxa in Iceland since 1967. We evidenced the presence of 336 alien vascular plant taxa, including 277 casuals and 59 naturalised taxa, two being invasive. The distribution of the alien flora exhibits a clear spatial pattern showing hotspots of occurrence and diversity within areas of major settlement centres. Altitude above sea level and temperature-related variables proved to be the most important factors shaping alien plant distribution in Iceland. Predictive modelling evidenced that arctic areas of Iceland and the Central Highlands are under serious risk of alien plant invasion due to climate change. The results provide crucial information for alien and invasive plant management and contribute data for meta-analyses of invasion processes worldwide.     

A foe in woe: American mink (Neovison vison) diet changes during a population decrease

The invasive American mink has been a component of Iceland's fauna since the 1930s. Hunting statistics indicate that until 2003 the population size was increasing, but thereafter decreased rapidly. The Icelandic marine environment has experienced various changes in recent years, including rising sea temperature and sand-eel collapse followed by seabird recruitment failure and population declines. Furthermore the arctic fox population has increased at least six-fold in the last three decades. Mink stomach content analysis in the period 2001–2009 revealed diet changes, and signs of reduced prey availability for this generalist predator, that were most significant in males. The most marked shift in composition was a decrease in consumption of birds. Our findings suggest that climate events, together with competition with increasing numbers of arctic foxes over terrestrial food, contributed to the sharp reduction in the mink population from 2004 and onwards. Despite their generalist behaviour, mink have apparently failed to respond fully to these environmental changes, and this susceptibility may benefit attempts to control their numbers. The results are relevant to the ability of top predators in general to cope with diverse ecosystem alterations triggered by climate change.     

神农架地区濒危植物香果树的遗传多样性研究

用RAPD标记方法对神农架地区香果树4个自然居群的28个个体进行了遗传多样性分析,11个引物共得到71个扩增位点,其中多态性位点39个。POPGENE分析显示:在物种水平上,神农架地区香果树的多态性条带百分率为54.93%,Nei基因多样性指数(h)为0.1903,Shannon信息指数(I)为0.2856;而在居群水平上,上述3个指标平均值依次为16.2%、0.0578和0.0865。4个自然居群间的遗传分化程度较低,居群间的基因流(Nm)为0.2329。结果表明神农架地区香果树的遗传多样性较低,居群间基因流较低可能是香果树的致濒原因之一。     

厦门市重点保护植物空间优先保护格局研究

生物多样性保护对维持城市生态系统功能具有重要意义。以39种厦门市重点保护植物为对象,通过物种分布模型MaxENT获得物种潜在分布栅格图,利用空间保护优先化定量工具Zonation软件识别理论上既适宜重点保护植物生存又能够保证景观连通性的区域,获得本地重点保护植物景观保护等级。根据2020年全球生物多样性目标,将景观保护等级最高的17%区域视为多物种空间优先保护区,结合Zonation模型生成的随景观丧失物种加权灭绝风险曲线,将保护等级最高的8%区域划为一级保护区,保护等级在8%-17%范围内的区域划为二级保护区。利用MaxENT模型中的jackknife刀切法发现海拔是对本地重点保护植物分布影响最大的环境因子,优先保护区集中分布于海拔较低的海岸带区域。将优先保护区与自然保护地建设现状、厦门市生态功能区规划、土地利用规划、城市总体规划对比发现厦门市岛外西部、北部的优先保护区得到了较好保护;岛外的西南部及东南部、岛内的东部及南部海岸带的优先保护区被建设用地大规模占用,已纳入自然保护地范围的区域较少,存在大量的海岸带优先保护区保护空缺;岛外东南部的部分优先保护区虽未被占用,但规划中属发展备用地,缺乏生态保护。为避免优先保护区面积的进一步萎缩,应重点关注海岸带区域优先保护区的生态保护,将目前属于发展备用地的优先保护区转划为生态留白空间,针对一级、二级优先保护区分别实施刚性和弹性的生态保育措施,在保护生物多样性的同时,严控对海岸带区域优先保护区的进一步开发利用,协调优先保护区内保护与开发利用间的关系。     

气候变化对中国东北主要森林类型的影响

应用林窗模型-FAREAST,模拟未来气候变化对中国东北主要类型森林演替动态的影响.根据大气环流模型ECHAM5-OM和HadCM3预测的气候变化资料,模拟选择了目前气候情景、增暖情景、增暖且降水变化情景3种气候情景.结果表明:维持目前气候不变,东北森林树种组成和森林生物量基本维持动态平衡.气候增暖不利于东北主要森林类型生长,主要针叶树种比例下降,阔叶树比例增加;温带针阔混交林垂直分布带有上移的趋势;增暖幅度越大,变化越明显.气候增暖基础上考虑降水变化,东北森林水平分布带有北移的趋势,降水对低海拔温带针阔混交林影响不大.     

气候变化对中国东北地区日本松干蚧传播扩散的影响

基于气候资料和日本松干蚧传播资料,根据传播扩散范围及入侵地的气候特征,分析了日本松干蚧主要影响因子的年代变化对日本松干蚧在东北地区扩散的影响。结果表明:东北地区最冷月各旬及月平均最低气温总的呈升高趋势(r=0.86,P0.05),冬季极端最低气温也有缓慢上升趋势(r=0.93,P0.01),其年代间的冷暖变化与日本松干蚧在东北地区扩散有明显的相关性。1月平均最低气温和冬季极端最低气温明显升高的20世纪70年代和90年代,日本松干蚧快速扩散、危害地虫口密度大、危害程度重。日本松干蚧大范围扩散和爆发都发生在1月份最低气温较高的年份。1月最低气温和冬季极端最低气温升高是日本松干蚧在东北地区传播扩散的重要因素。复苏后的降水量、卵孵化期的空气相对湿度和夏季最高气温的年代变化对日本松干蚧扩散的影响不显著。