Scale‐dependent complementarity of climatic velocity and environmental diversity for identifying priority areas for conservation under climate change

As most regions of the earth transition to altered climatic conditions, new methods are needed to identify refugia and other areas whose conservation would facilitate persistence of biodiversity under climate change. We compared several common approaches to conservation planning focused on climate resilience over a broad range of ecological settings across North America and evaluated how commonalities in the priority areas identified by different methods varied with regional context and spatial scale. Our results indicate that priority areas based on different environmental diversity metrics differed substantially from each other and from priorities based on spatiotemporal metrics such as climatic velocity. Refugia identified by diversity or velocity metrics were not strongly associated with the current protected area system, suggesting the need for additional conservation measures including protection of refugia. Despite the inherent uncertainties in predicting future climate, we found that variation among climatic velocities derived from different general circulation models and emissions pathways was less than the variation among the suite of environmental diversity metrics. To address uncertainty created by this variation, planners can combine priorities identified by alternative metrics at a single resolution and downweight areas of high variation between metrics. Alternately, coarse‐resolution velocity metrics can be combined with fine‐resolution diversity metrics in order to leverage the respective strengths of the two groups of metrics as tools for identification of potential macro‐ and microrefugia that in combination maximize both transient and long‐term resilience to climate change. Planners should compare and integrate approaches that span a range of model complexity and spatial scale to match the range of ecological and physical processes influencing persistence of biodiversity and identify a conservation network resilient to threats operating at multiple scales.     

Conservation of genetic diversity hotspots of the high‐valued relic yellowhorn (Xanthoceras sorbifolium) considering climate change predictions

Genetic structure and major climate factors may contribute to the distribution of genetic diversity of a highly valued oil tree species Xanthoceras sorbifolium (yellowhorn). Long‐term over utilization along with climate change is affecting the viability of yellowhorn wild populations. To preserve the species known and unknown valuable gene pools, the identification of genetic diversity “hotspots” is a prerequisite for their consideration as in situ conservation high priority. Chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) diversity was high among 38 natural populations (H_d = 0.717, K = 4.616, Tajmas’ D = ?0.22) and characterized by high genetic divergence (F_ST = 0.765) and relatively low gene flow (N_m = 0.03), indicating populations isolation reflecting the species’ habitat fragmentation and inbreeding depression. Six out of the studied 38 populations are defined as genetic diversity “hotspots.” The number and geographic direction of cpDNA mutation steps supported the species southwest to northeast migration history. Climatic factors such as extreme minimum temperature over 30 years indicated that the identified genetic “hotspots” are expected to experience 5°C temperature increase in next following 50 years. The results identified vulnerable genetic diversity “hotspots” and provided fundamental information for the species’ future conservation and breeding activities under the anticipated climate change. More specifically, the role of breeding as a component of a gene resource management strategy aimed at fulfilling both utilization and conservation goals.     

Optimizing resiliency of reserve networks to climate change: multispecies conservation planning in the Pacific Northwest,USA

The effectiveness of a system of reserves may be compromised under climate change as species' habitat shifts to nonreserved areas, a problem that may be compounded when well‐studied vertebrate species are used as conservation umbrellas for other taxa. The Northwest Forest Plan was among the first efforts to integrate conservation of wide‐ranging focal species and localized endemics into regional conservation planning. We evaluated how effectively the plan's focal species, the Northern Spotted Owl, acts as an umbrella for localized species under current and projected future climates and how the regional system of reserves can be made more resilient to climate change. We used the program maxent to develop distribution models integrating climate data with vegetation variables for the owl and 130 localized species. We used the program zonation to identify a system of areas that efficiently captures habitat for both the owl and localized species and prioritizes refugial areas of climatic and topographic heterogeneity where current and future habitat for dispersal‐limited species is in proximity. We projected future species' distributions based on an ensemble of contrasting climate models, and incorporating uncertainty between alternate climate projections into the prioritization process. Reserve solutions based on the owl overlap areas of high localized‐species richness but poorly capture core areas of localized species' distribution. Congruence between priority areas across taxa increases when refugial areas are prioritized. Although core‐area selection strategies can potentially increase the conservation value and resilience of regional reserve systems, they accentuate contrasts in priority areas between species and over time and should be combined with a broadened taxonomic scope and increased attention to potential effects of climate change. Our results suggest that systems of fixed reserves designed for resilience can increase the likelihood of retaining the biological diversity of forest ecosystems under climate change.     

Synergistic effects of climate and land-use change on representation of African bats in priority conservation areas

Bats are considered important bioindicators and deliver key ecosystem services to humans. However, it is not clear how the individual and combined effects of climate change and land-use change will affect their conservation in the future. We used a spatial conservation prioritization framework to determine future shifts in the priority areas for the conservation of 169 bat species under projected climate and land-use change scenarios across Africa. Specifically, we modelled species distribution models under four different climate change scenarios at the 2050 horizon. We used land-use change scenarios within the spatial conservation prioritization framework to assess habitat quality in areas where bats may shift their distributions. Overall, bats’ representation within already existing protected areas in Africa was low (∼5% of their suitable habitat in protected areas which cover ∼7% of Africa). Accounting for future land-use change resulted in the largest shift in spatial priority areas for conservation actions, and species representation within priority areas for conservation actions decreased by ∼9%. A large proportion of spatial conservation priorities will shift from forested areas with little disturbance under present conditions to agricultural areas in the future. Planning land use to reduce impacts on bats in priority areas outside protected areas where bats will be shifting their ranges in the future is crucial to enhance their conservation and maintain the important ecosystem services they provide to humans.     

Vulnerability of dynamic genetic conservation units of forest trees in Europe to climate change

A transnational network of genetic conservation units for forest trees was recently documented in Europe aiming at the conservation of evolutionary processes and the adaptive potential of natural or man‐made tree populations. In this study, we quantified the vulnerability of individual conservation units and the whole network to climate change using climate favourability models and the estimated velocity of climate change. Compared to the overall climate niche of the analysed target species populations at the warm and dry end of the species niche are underrepresented in the network. However, by 2100, target species in 33–65 % of conservation units, mostly located in southern Europe, will be at the limit or outside the species' current climatic niche as demonstrated by favourabilities below required model sensitivities of 95%. The highest average decrease in favourabilities throughout the network can be expected for coniferous trees although they are mainly occurring within units in mountainous landscapes for which we estimated lower velocities of change. Generally, the species‐specific estimates of favourabilities showed only low correlations to the velocity of climate change in individual units, indicating that both vulnerability measures should be considered for climate risk analysis. The variation in favourabilities among target species within the same conservation units is expected to increase with climate change and will likely require a prioritization among co‐occurring species. The present results suggest that there is a strong need to intensify monitoring efforts and to develop additional conservation measures for populations in the most vulnerable units. Also, our results call for continued transnational actions for genetic conservation of European forest trees, including the establishment of dynamic conservation populations outside the current species distribution ranges within European assisted migration schemes.     

Assessing the contribution of breeds to genetic diversity in conservation schemes

The quantitative assessment of genetic diversity within and between populations is important for decision making in genetic conservation plans. In this paper we define the genetic diversity of a set of populations, S, as the maximum genetic variance that can be obtained in a random mating population that is bred from the set of populations S. First we calculated the relative contribution of populations to a core set of populations in which the overlap of genetic diversity was minimised. This implies that the mean kinship in the core set should be minimal. The above definition of diversity differs from Weitzman diversity in that it attempts to conserve the founder population (and thus minimises the loss of alleles), whereas Weitzman diversity favours the conservation of many inbred lines. The former is preferred in species where inbred lines suffer from inbreeding depression. The application of the method is illustrated by an example involving 45 Dutch poultry breeds. The calculations used were easy to implement and not computer intensive. The method gave a ranking of breeds according to their contributions to genetic diversity. Losses in genetic diversity ranged from 2.1% to 4.5% for different subsets relative to the entire set of breeds, while the loss of founder genome equivalents ranged from 22.9% to 39.3%.     

迁地保育植物花期物候对迁入地气候变化的响应

以中国科学院武汉植物园内栽培的长果秤锤树(Sinojackia dolichocarpa C. J. Qi)、山白树(Sinowilsonia henryi Hemsl.)、夏腊梅(Sinocalycanthus chinensis Cheng et S. Y. Chang)、紫茎(Stewartia sinensis Rehd. et Wils.)和绒毛皂荚(Gleditsia vestita Chun et How ex B. G. Li) 5种迁地保育植物为对象,通过2008-2016年观察记录的初花期物候及整个花期长度的数据,研究花期的年际变化规律及其与迁入地武汉气候因子的相关性。结果显示:(1)从初花期来看,长果秤锤树的初花期每年提前1.25 d,紫茎的初花期每年推迟1.35 d,绒毛皂荚的初花期每年推迟1.22 d。(2)从花期长度来看,山白树的花期每年增加1.72 d,夏蜡梅的花期每年减少1.62 d,紫茎的花期每年增加0.32 d。(3)从花期与气候因子的相关性来看,年降水量、年平均相对湿度、 10℃有效积温、花前 10℃的有效积温是影响这5种植物初花期、花期长度的主要气候因子;不同物种间影响花期的主要气候因子有所差异。     

Modelling changes in the distribution of the critical food resources of a specialist folivore in response to climate change

Aim An important consideration when planning to conserve a species under climate change is to understand how the distribution of its food resources may also contract or shift under those same climatic conditions. Here, we use a case study to demonstrate a spatial conservation planning approach to inform decisions about where, under climate change, to protect and restore critical food and habitat resources for highly specialized species. Location Eastern Australia. Methods We developed fitted models for the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) and five of its key eucalypt food trees using the maximum entropy algorithm available in Maxent. We then projected these models using a range of IPCC A1FI climate change scenarios and identified areas with a higher probability of occurrence. We calculated where the koala and its food trees may co‐occur under future climate change. Results The koala and its food trees experienced significant range contractions as climate change progressed, sometimes to regions outside their current distributions. The inland species Eucalyptus camaldulensis and Eucalyptus coolabah contracted from the more arid interior, which is outside the koala range, but persisted in the eastern regions of the koala’s range, while Eucalyptus viminalis, Eucalyptus populnea and Eucalyptus tereticornis contracted eastwards and southwards, with a fragmented distribution. The highest probabilities of overlap between koalas and their food trees were identified in fragmented coastal and southern regions of the koala’s current range. Main conclusions The application of a robust species distribution modelling decision support tool identified important changes, under climate change, in the distribution of a specialist species and its key food trees. These distributions did not change in complete synergy and therefore areas of overlap varied, depending on the food tree species modelled. This is of particular importance in a conservation planning context, when considering targeted protection and restoration of species‐specific habitat resources.     

Using species distributions models for designing conservation strategies of Tropical Andean biodiversity under climate change

Biodiversity in the Tropical Andes is under continuous threat from anthropogenic activities. Projected changes in climate will likely exacerbate this situation. Using species distribution models, we assess possible future changes in the diversity and climatic niche size of an unprecedented number of species for the region. We modeled a broad range of taxa (11,012 species of birds and vascular plants), including both endemic and widespread species and provide a comprehensive estimation of climate change impacts on the Andes. We find that if no dispersal is assumed, by 2050s, more than 50% of the species studied are projected to undergo reductions of at least 45% in their climatic niche, whilst 10% of species could be extinct. Even assuming unlimited dispersal, most of the Andean endemics (comprising ∼5% of our dataset) would become severely threatened (>50% climatic niche loss). While some areas appear to be climatically stable (e.g. Pichincha and Imbabura in Ecuador; and Nariño, Cauca, Valle del Cauca and Putumayo in Colombia) and hence depict little diversity loss and/or potential species gains, major negative impacts were also observed. Tropical high Andean grasslands (páramos and punas) and evergreen montane forests, two key ecosystems for the provision of environmental services in the region, are projected to experience negative changes in species richness and high rates of species turnover. Adapting to these impacts would require a landscape-network based approach to conservation, including protected areas, their buffer zones and corridors. A central aspect of such network is the implementation of an integrated landscape management approach based on sustainable management and restoration practices covering wider areas than currently contemplated.     

夏腊梅的遗传多样性及其保护

夏腊梅（Sinocalycanthus chinensis)是国家二级保护的珍稀濒危植物,夏腊梅属（Sinocalycanthus)的唯一代表,仅间断分布于我国浙江省临安市天台县极狭小的范围内,本文采用等位酶淀粉凝胶电泳技术对采自上述两地的天然居群和天目山自然保护区引种的人工居群的553个样品进行了遗传多样性检测,并与浙江腊梅（Chimonan-thus zhejiangensis)作对比,检测结果表明夏腊梅的遗传多样性极低,从14个酶系统检测到的23个位点看,在物种水平上每位点的等位基因平均数（A）为1.2,多态位点（P）占21.7%,观察杂合度（Ho)为0.010。在居群水平上,A=1.0-1.1,P=0-13.0%,Ho=0-0.014。而对照种浙江腊梅杭州植物园人工居群的上述指标分别为A=1.5,P=39.1%,Ho=0.071。夏腊梅的2个自然居群之间在Mdh-4,Pgd-3和Sod-1发生显著的分化,但居群内亚居群间几乎没有分化,在天目山自然保护区引种的人工居群中没有检测到多态性,说明作为迁地保护的天目山自然保护区人工居群并没能有效地保护夏腊梅的遗传多样性,由于目前自然保护区基本上采用不加人为干预的经营方式,划人龙塘山自然保护区内的自然亚居群会因为森林的自然演替而灭绝,所以,自然保护区目前的这种经营方式不适合对夏腊梅的保护,夏腊梅的例子说明,当我们对保护对象的生物学特性缺乏认识时,我们既不知道应该保护什么,也不知道应该如何保护。     

The impact of climate change on the future distribution of priority crop wild relatives in Indonesia and implications for conservation planning

The analysis of climate change impact is essential to include in conservation planning of crop wild relatives (CWR) to provide the guideline for adequate long-term protection under unpredictable future environmental conditions. These resources play an important role in sustaining the future of food security, but the evidence shows that they are threatened by climate change. The current analyses show that five taxa were predicted to have contraction of more than 30 % of their current ranges: Artocarpus sepicanus (based on RCP 4.5 in both no dispersal and unlimited dispersal scenario and RCP 8.5 in no dispersal scenario by 2050), Ficus oleifolia (RCP 4.5 5 in both no dispersal and unlimited dispersal scenario by 2080), Cocos nucifera and Dioscorea alata (RCP 8.5 in both no dispersal and unlimited dispersal scenario by 2050), and Ficus chartacea (RCP 8.5 in both no dispersal and unlimited dispersal scenario by 2050 and 2080). It shows that the climate change impact is species-specific. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission and dispersal scenarios influence the prediction models, and the actual future distribution range of species falls in between those scenarios. Climate refugia, holdout populations, and non-analogue community assemblages were identified based on the Protected Areas (PAs) network. PAs capacity is considered an important element in implementing a conservation strategy for the priority CWR. In areas where PAs are isolated and have less possibility to build corridors to connect each other, such as in Java, unlimited dispersal scenarios are unlikely to be achieved and assisted dispersal is suggested. The holdout populations should be the priority target for the ex situ collection. Therefore, by considering the climate refugia, PAs capacity and holdout populations, the goal of keeping high genetic variations for the long-term conservation of CWR in Indonesia can be achieved.     

Using niche-based modelling to assess the impact of climate change on tree functional diversity in Europe

Rapid anthropogenic climate change is already affecting species distributions and ecosystem functioning worldwide. We applied niche-based models to analyse the impact of climate change on tree species and functional diversity in Europe. Present-day climate was used to predict the distributions of 122 tree species from different functional types (FT). We then explored projections of future distributions under one climate scenario for 2080, considering two alternative dispersal assumptions: no dispersal and unlimited dispersal. The species-rich broadleaved deciduous group appeared to play a key role in the future of different European regions. Temperate areas were projected to lose both species richness and functional diversity due to the loss of broadleaved deciduous trees. These were projected to migrate to boreal forests, thereby increasing their species richness and functional diversity. Atlantic areas provided an intermediate case, with a predicted reduction in the numbers of species and occasional predicted gains in functional diversity. This resulted from a loss in species within the broadleaved deciduous FT, but overall maintenance of the group. Our results illustrate the fact that both species-specific predictions and functional patterns should be examined separately in order to assess the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and gain insights into future ecosystem functioning.     

Species vulnerability to climate change: impacts on spatial conservation priorities and species representation

Climate change may shrink and/or shift plant species ranges thereby increasing their vulnerability and requiring targeted conservation to facilitate adaptation. We quantified the vulnerability to climate change of plant species based on exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity and assessed the effects of including these components in complementarity‐based spatial conservation prioritisation. We modelled the vulnerability of 584 native plant species under three climate change scenarios in an 11.9 million hectare fragmented agricultural region in southern Australia. We represented exposure as species' geographical range under each climate change scenario as quantified using species distribution models. We calculated sensitivity as a function of the impact of climate change on species' geographical ranges. Using a dispersal kernel, we quantified adaptive capacity as species' ability to migrate to new geographical ranges under each climate change scenario. Using Zonation, we assessed the impact of individual components of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity) on spatial conservation priorities and levels of species representation in priority areas under each climate change scenario. The full vulnerability framework proved an effective basis for identifying spatial conservation priorities under climate change. Including different dimensions of vulnerability had significant implications for spatial conservation priorities. Incorporating adaptive capacity increased the level of representation of most species. However, prioritising sensitive species reduced the representation of other species. We conclude that whilst taking an integrated approach to mitigating species vulnerability to climate change can ensure sensitive species are well‐represented in a conservation network, this can come at the cost of reduced representation of other species. Conservation planning decisions aimed at reducing species vulnerability to climate change need to be made in full cognisance of the sensitivity of spatial conservation priorities to individual components of vulnerability, and the trade‐offs associated with focussing on sensitive species.     

A review on the potential effects of environmental and economic factors on sheep genetic diversity: Consequences of climate change

Climate change has a significant effect on the productivity of livestock including milk, meat, and reproduction. This could be attributed to the internal diversion of energy resources towards adaptive mechanisms. Among the climate change variables, thermal stress seems to be the major limiting factor in animal agriculture. A better understanding of the effects of climate change-influenced ecological factors on the genetic diversity of livestock species is warranted. Sheep is an ideal livestock species to be used in investigating environmental adaptation due to its wide range of agroecological habitats, genetic and phenotypic variability. There is a heavy reliance on sheep genetic diversity for future animal protein security, but the implications of climate change on their genetic diversity receive less attention.Here, the potential environmental factors influencing natural selection in sheep populations are presented. We argue that prolonged exposure to these factors plays a major role in influencing the development of adaptation traits in indigenous sheep breeds, consequently leading to the alteration of genetic diversity at specific loci. The factors discussed include hot temperatures (heat stress), insufficient water, low quantity and quality of forage, and prevalence of parasites, pests, and diseases. In addition, genetic diversity, some signatures of selection for adaptation and economic angles of selection are also briefly discussed.A better understanding of environmental factors influencing the genetic diversity of sheep populations will inform breeding and management programs and may offer an opportunity for greater production efficiency with low input costs.     

基于全域连通性识别气候变化风险下的生物多样性保护优先区——以京津冀为例

在保护优先区规划中,有必要考虑气候变化的潜在风险并关注物种在气候驱动下的扩散格局。基于未来生物气候数据、地形多样性数据以及土地利用数据,应用Omniscape算法,对21世纪中叶(2040-2061年)气候变化情景下京津冀地区陆生哺乳动物的扩散进行全域连通性建模并与当前情景对比分析,识别出生物多样性保护优先区。结果表明:区域尺度下,气候变化风险使得高连通性的区域逐渐从平原向山区转移,分布趋于集中;斑块尺度下,林缘连通性较高,而位于林地或草地边缘的耕地连通性低。在此基础上,共识别生物多样性保护优先区共51786 km²,其中涵养区(占56.4%)在当前和未来的连通状况均较为良好;优化区(占38.4%)应提升生境质量以满足未来连通性的更高需求;而修复区(占5.22%)面临的气候变化风险较高,亟需进行生态修复以免在未来出现连通性夹点。本研究通过评估京津冀地区两种情景下的全域连通格局,为生物多样性保护的气候适应性规划提供了科学依据。     

遗传多样性与濒危植物保护生物学研究进展

尽管对于濒危物种的遗传学人们已经进行了大量研究,但是种群遗传学在植物保护中的实际地位尚存在很大争议。濒危物种的遗传多样性可能会由于遗传漂变、近交的作用而丧失;但这种丧失更可能是濒危的结果而不是濒危的起因。遗传多样性水平与物种生存力之间没有任何必然的联系。但植物种群遗传结构如果由于自交不亲和等位基因的丧失和与亲缘种杂交造成的遗传同化而发生改变,那么它对物种生存力会产生明显负作用。