Use of PIT tags to assess individual heterogeneity of laboratory‐reared juveniles of the endangered Cumberlandian combshell (Epioblasma brevidens) in a mark–recapture study

The federally endangered Cumberlandian combshell (Epioblasma brevidens) was propagated and reared to taggable size (5–10 mm), and released to the Powell River, Tennessee, to augment a relict population. Methodology using passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags on these mussels greatly facilitated the detection process. The overall mean detection probability and survival rate of released individuals reached 97.8 to 98.4% and 99.7 to 99.9% (per month), respectively, during nine successive recapture occasions in the 2‐year study period, regardless of seasonality. Nonhierarchical models and hierarchical models incorporating individual and seasonal variations through a Bayesian approach were compared and resulted in similar performance of prediction for detection probability and survival rate of mussels. This is the first study to apply the mark–recapture method to laboratory‐reared mussels using PIT tags and stochastic models. Quantitative analyses for individual heterogeneity allowed examination of demographic variance and effects of heterogeneity on population dynamics, although the individual and seasonal variations were small in this study. Our results provide useful information in implementing conservation strategies of this faunal group and a framework for other species or similar studies.     

multimark: an R package for analysis of capture–recapture data consisting of multiple “noninvasive” marks

I describe an open‐source R package, multimark , for estimation of survival and abundance from capture–mark–recapture data consisting of multiple “noninvasive” marks. Noninvasive marks include natural pelt or skin patterns, scars, and genetic markers that enable individual identification in lieu of physical capture. multimark provides a means for combining and jointly analyzing encounter histories from multiple noninvasive sources that otherwise cannot be reliably matched (e.g., left‐ and right‐sided photographs of bilaterally asymmetrical individuals). The package is currently capable of fitting open population Cormack–Jolly–Seber (CJS) and closed population abundance models with up to two mark types using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. multimark can also be used for Bayesian analyses of conventional capture–recapture data consisting of a single‐mark type. Some package features include (1) general model specification using formulas already familiar to most R users, (2) ability to include temporal, behavioral, age, cohort, and individual heterogeneity effects in detection and survival probabilities, (3) improved MCMC algorithm that is computationally faster and more efficient than previously proposed methods, (4) Bayesian multimodel inference using reversible jump MCMC, and (5) data simulation capabilities for power analyses and assessing model performance. I demonstrate use of multimark using left‐ and right‐sided encounter histories for bobcats (Lynx rufus) collected from remote single‐camera stations in southern California. In this example, there is evidence of a behavioral effect (i.e., trap “happy” response) that is otherwise indiscernible using conventional single‐sided analyses. The package will be most useful to ecologists seeking stronger inferences by combining different sources of mark–recapture data that are difficult (or impossible) to reliably reconcile, particularly with the sparse datasets typical of rare or elusive species for which noninvasive sampling techniques are most commonly employed. Addressing deficiencies in currently available software, multimark also provides a user‐friendly interface for performing Bayesian multimodel inference using capture–recapture data consisting of a single conventional mark or multiple noninvasive marks.     

Toe‐bud clipping of juvenile small marsupials for ecological field research: No detectable negative effects on growth or survival

Toe clipping is widely used to permanently mark many species of small vertebrates including marsupials, particularly didelphids and dasyurids. Small marsupials are marked as juveniles, by removing the tip of developing toe buds. It has recently been shown that survival and/or recapture probability decreases with increasing number of toes clipped in frogs. Because of this and other animal welfare concerns, toe clipping of adult vertebrates is increasingly being discouraged. The short‐ and long‐term effects of toe‐bud clipping have not been evaluated in marsupials. We used an experiment to test if marking more toes results in slower growth or higher mortality in the brown antechinus (Antechinus stuartii, Dasyuridae) in the short or long term. We found no harmful effects of toe‐bud clipping. There were no infections associated with clipping, marking more toes did not reduce growth in young or adults, and did not affect survival of young in captivity, survival of independent animals in the wild, or recapture probability. Toe‐bud clipping is done at an extremely immature stage, when the area cut is tiny and perception and memory of pain is unlikely to be a problem. We suggest that toe‐bud clipping is a humane and benign method of permanently marking antechinuses, and probably also the young of other morphologically similar small marsupials.     

Seasonal climate effects on the survival of a hibernating mammal

Global climate change and associated regional climate variability is impacting the phenology of many species, ultimately altering individual fitness and population dynamics. Yet, few studies have considered the effects of pertinent seasonal climate variability on phenology and fitness. Hibernators may be particularly susceptible to changes in seasonal climate since they have a relatively short active season in which to reproduce and gain enough mass to survive the following winter. To understand whether and how seasonal climate variability may be affecting hibernator fitness, we estimated survival from historical (1964–1968) and contemporary (2014–2017) mark–recapture data collected from the same population of Uinta ground squirrels (UGS, Urocitellus armatus), a hibernator endemic to the western United States. Despite a locally warming climate, the phenology of UGS did not change over time, yet season‐specific climate variables were important in regulating survival rates. Specifically, older age classes experienced lower survival when winters or the following springs were warm, while juveniles benefited from warmer winter temperatures. Although metabolic costs decrease with decreasing temperature in the hibernacula, arousal costs increase with decreasing temperature. Our results suggest that this trade‐off is experienced differently by immature and mature individuals. We also observed an increase in population density during that time period, suggesting resources are less limited today than they used to be. Cheatgrass is now dominating the study site and may provide a better food source to UGS than native plants did historically.     

Effects of distance on detectability of Arctic waterfowl using double‐observer sampling during helicopter surveys

Aerial survey is an important, widely employed approach for estimating free‐ranging wildlife over large or inaccessible study areas. We studied how a distance covariate influenced probability of double‐observer detections for birds counted during a helicopter survey in Canada’s central Arctic. Two observers, one behind the other but visually obscured from each other, counted birds in an incompletely shared field of view to a distance of 200 m. Each observer assigned detections to one of five 40‐m distance bins, guided by semi‐transparent marks on aircraft windows. Detections were recorded with distance bin, taxonomic group, wing‐flapping behavior, and group size. We compared two general model‐based estimation approaches pertinent to sampling wildlife under such situations. One was based on double‐observer methods without distance information, that provide sampling analogous to that required for mark–recapture (MR) estimation of detection probability, , and group abundance, , along a fixed‐width strip transect. The other method incorporated double‐observer MR with a categorical distance covariate (MRD). A priori, we were concerned that estimators from MR models were compromised by heterogeneity in due to un‐modeled distance information; that is, more distant birds are less likely to be detected by both observers, with the predicted effect that would be biased high, and biased low. We found that, despite increased complexity, MRD models (ΔAICc range: 0–16) fit data far better than MR models (ΔAICc range: 204–258). However, contrary to expectation, the more naïve MR estimators of were biased low in all cases, but only by 2%–5% in most cases. We suspect that this apparently anomalous finding was the result of specific limitations to, and trade‐offs in, visibility by observers on the survey platform used. While MR models provided acceptable point estimates of group abundance, their far higher stranded errors (0%–40%) compared to MRD estimates would compromise ability to detect temporal or spatial differences in abundance. Given improved precision of MRD models relative to MR models, and the possibility of bias when using MR methods from other survey platforms, we recommend avian ecologists use MRD protocols and estimation procedures when surveying Arctic bird populations.     

Patterns and processes in shorebird survival rates: a global review

Changes in demographic rates underpin changes in population size, and understanding demographic rates can greatly aid the design and development of strategies to maintain populations in the face of environmental changes. However, acquiring estimates of demographic parameters at relevant spatial scales is difficult. Measures of annual survival rates can be particularly challenging to obtain because large‐scale, long‐term tracking of individuals is difficult and the resulting data contain many inherent biases. In recent years, advances in both tracking and analytical techniques have meant that, for some taxonomic groups, sufficient numbers of survival estimates are available to allow variation within and among species to be explored. Here we review published estimates of annual adult survival rates in shorebird species across the globe, and construct models to explore the phylogenetic, geographical, seasonal and sex‐based variation in survival rates. Models of 295 survival estimates from 56 species show that survival rates calculated from recoveries of dead individuals or from return rates of marked individuals are significantly lower than estimates from mark–recapture models. Survival rates also vary across flyways, largely as a consequence of differences in the genera that have been studied and the analytical methods used, with published estimates from the Americas and from smaller shorebirds (Actitis, Calidris and Charadrius spp.) tending to be underestimated. By incorporating the analytical method used to generate each estimate within a mixed model framework, we provide method‐corrected species‐specific and genus‐specific adult annual survival estimates for 52 species of 15 genera.     

Estimability of migration survival rates from integrated breeding and winter capture–recapture data

Long‐distance migration is a common phenomenon across the animal kingdom but the scale of annual migratory movements has made it difficult for researchers to estimate survival rates during these periods of the annual cycle. Estimating migration survival is particularly challenging for small‐bodied species that cannot carry satellite tags, a group that includes the vast majority of migratory species. When capture–recapture data are available for linked breeding and non‐breeding populations, estimation of overall migration survival is possible but current methods do not allow separate estimation of spring and autumn survival rates. Recent development of a Bayesian integrated survival model has provided a method to separately estimate the latent spring and autumn survival rates using capture–recapture data, though the accuracy and precision of these estimates has not been formally tested. Here, I used simulated data to explore the estimability of migration survival rates using this model. Under a variety of biologically realistic scenarios, I demonstrate that spring and autumn migration survival can be estimated from the integrated survival model, though estimates are biased toward the overall migration survival probability. The direction and magnitude of this bias are influenced by the relative difference in spring and autumn survival rates as well as the degree of annual variation in these rates. The inclusion of covariates can improve the model's performance, especially when annual variation in migration survival rates is low. Migration survival rates can be estimated from relatively short time series (4–5 years), but bias and precision of estimates are improved when longer time series (10–12 years) are available. The ability to estimate seasonal survival rates of small, migratory organisms opens the door to advancing our understanding of the ecology and conservation of these species. Application of this method will enable researchers to better understand when mortality occurs across the annual cycle and how the migratory periods contribute to population dynamics. Integrating summer and winter capture data requires knowledge of the migratory connectivity of sampled populations and therefore efforts to simultaneously collect both survival and tracking data should be a high priority, especially for species of conservation concern.     

Effects of tail autotomy on survival,growth and territory occupation in free‐ranging juvenile geckos (Oedura lesueurii)

Abstract Many animals autotomize their tails to facilitate escape from predators. Although tail autotomy can increase the likelihood of surviving a predatory encounter, it may entail subsequent costs, including reduced growth, loss of energy stores, a reduction in reproductive output, loss of social status and a decreased probability of survival during subsequent encounters with predators. To date, few studies have investigated the potential fitness costs of tail autotomy in natural populations. I investigated whether tail loss influenced survival, growth and territory occupation of juvenile velvet geckos Oedura lesueurii in a population where predatory snakes were common. During the 3‐year mark–recapture study, 32% of juveniles voluntarily autotomized their tails when first captured. Analysis of survival using the program mark showed that voluntary tail autotomy did not influence the subsequent survival of juvenile geckos. Survival was age‐dependent and was higher in 1‐year‐old animals (0.98) than in hatchlings (0.76), whereas recapture probabilities were time‐dependent. Growth rates of tailed and tailless juveniles were very similar, but tailless geckos had slow rates of tail regeneration (0.14 mm day⁻¹). Tail autotomy did not influence rock usage by geckos, and both tailed and tailless juveniles used few rocks as diurnal retreat sites (means of 1.64 and 1.47 rocks, respectively) and spent long time periods (85 and 82 days) under the same rocks. Site fidelity may confer survival advantages to juveniles in populations sympatric with ambush foraging snakes. My results show that two potential fitness costs of tail autotomy – decreased growth rates and a lower probability of survival – did not occur in juveniles from this population. However, compared with juveniles, significantly fewer adult geckos (17%) voluntarily autotomized their tails during capture. Because adults possess large tails that are used for lipid storage, the energetic costs of tail autotomy are likely to be much higher in adult than in juvenile O. lesueurii.     

Apparent survival and return rate of breeders in the southern temperate White‐rumped Swallow Tachycineta leucorrhoa

Life‐histories and demographic parameters of southern temperate bird species have been little studied. We estimated return rates between years and sexes, and adult apparent survival and recapture probabilities with mark–recapture data on White‐rumped Swallows and found a lower return rate of unsuccessful females. There was little support for influences of sex or year on survival rates. The estimates were equivalent to the lowest value reported for a northern congener, in contrast to the prediction of geographical variation under life‐history theory.     

Effects of VIE tagging and partial tissue sampling on the immune response of three‐spined stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus

A 14 day experiment on effects of visible implant elastomer (VIE) tagging and spine‐clipping of three‐spined stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus showed significant increases in immune response, particularly in the granulocyte:lymphocyte ratio, in both treatments and the sham control. A minimum two‐week recovery after handling, anaesthesia, tagging and spine‐clipping is recommended to minimize effect of manipulation on the immune system.     

Attraction of wild‐like and colony‐reared Bactrocera cucurbitae (Diptera:Tephritidae) to cuelure in the field

The attraction of wild tephritids to semiochemical‐based lures is the ideal basis for trap network design in detection programmes, but in practice, mass‐reared colony insects are usually used to determine trap efficiency. For Bactrocera cucurbitae Coquillett, a lower response by wild males compared with colony‐derived individuals, usually used to estimate attraction parameters, could mean that the sensitivity of detection networks targeting this pest is reduced. We describe the results of mark–release–recapture experiments with wild‐ and colony‐derived B. cucurbitae males in a grid of cuelure‐baited traps within a macadamia nut orchard in Hawaii Island designed to quantify the attraction of cuelure to each fly type. For colony males, we estimate a 65% probability of capture at 27 m, intermediate with previous estimates on the attraction of methyl eugenol to Bactrocera dorsalis Hendel (36 m) and trimedlure to Ceratitis capitata Wiedemann (14 m) at the same site. Results suggest similar response over distance by wild‐derived B. cucurbitae compared with colony in the field, but there may be qualitative differences in response between wild and colony based on very low response of wild males in a standard bioassay of attraction. For both fly types, the estimates of attraction in the smaller of two grid sizes tested were lower than for the larger spacing, suggesting trap competition was a factor at an intertrap distance of 75 m. Dispersal patterns within the grid were generally to the south for the colony‐derived males and more variable for the wild‐derived males. In neither case was the direction of recapture correlated with the prevailing direction of the wind.     

Temporal patterns in growth and survival of the round goby Neogobius melanostomus

Monthly, overwinter and annual instantaneous growth rates for round goby Neogobius melanostomus were calculated with maximal growth occurring in July and August and almost no growth observed between ice appearance (October) and melt (March). Annual absolute growth rates averaged 27·3 ± 1·9 mm for males and 19·8 ± 2·4 mm for females. The most parsimonious Cormack–Jolly–Seber model indicated that both the survival and recapture probabilities were dependent on sampling date, but not sex. Survival estimates remained high throughout the 13 month study with a median weekly survival probability of 0·920 (25 and 75% quartiles: 0·767 and 0·991), an overwinter survival probability of 99% and an annual survival rate of 67%. Survival probabilities were lowest for both sexes near the completion of the N. melanostomus reproductive season in July and August which supports existing evidence of higher mortality after reproduction, while challenging the paradigm that male N. melanostomus suffer comparatively higher mortality as a result of reproduction than females. Evidence indicating that growth and mortality rates are highest at the end of the reproductive season not only highlights seasonal variability in N. melanostomus natural history, but may also guide the control of this invasive species to periods when they are most vulnerable.     

Modelling life history strategies with capture–recapture data: Evolutionary demography of the water skink Eulamprus tympanum

Matrix population models, elasticity analysis and loop analysis can potentially provide powerful techniques for the analysis of life histories. Data from a capture–recapture study on a population of southern highland water skinks (Eulamprus tympanum) were used to construct a matrix population model. Errors in elasticities were calculated by using the parametric bootstrap technique. Elasticity and loop analyses were then conducted to identify the life history stages most important to fitness. The same techniques were used to investigate the relative importance of fast versus slow growth, and rapid versus delayed reproduction. Mature water skinks were long‐lived, but there was high immature mortality. The most sensitive life history stage was the subadult stage. It is suggested that life history evolution in E. tympanum may be strongly affected by predation, particularly by birds. Because our population declined over the study, slow growth and delayed reproduction were the optimal life history strategies over this period. Although the techniques of evolutionary demography provide a powerful approach for the analysis of life histories, there are formidable logistical obstacles in gathering enough high‐quality data for robust estimates of the critical parameters.     

Contrasting demographic and genetic estimates of dispersal in the endangered Coahuilan box turtle: a contemporary approach to conservation

The evolutionary viability of an endangered species depends upon gene flow among subpopulations and the degree of habitat patch connectivity. Contrasting population connectivity over ecological and evolutionary timescales may provide novel insight into what maintains genetic diversity within threatened species. We employed this integrative approach to evaluating dispersal in the critically endangered Coahuilan box turtle (Terrapene coahuila) that inhabits isolated wetlands in the desert‐spring ecosystem of Cuatro Ciénegas, Mexico. Recent wetland habitat loss has altered the spatial distribution and connectivity of habitat patches; and we therefore predicted that T. coahuila would exhibit limited movement relative to estimates of historic gene flow. To evaluate contemporary dispersal patterns, we employed mark–recapture techniques at both local (wetland complex) and regional (intercomplex) spatial scales. Gene flow estimates were obtained by surveying genetic variation at nine microsatellite loci in seven subpopulations located across the species’ geographical range. The mark–recapture results at the local spatial scale reveal frequent movement among wetlands that was unaffected by interwetland distance. At the regional spatial scale, dispersal events were relatively less frequent between wetland complexes. The complementary analysis of population genetic substructure indicates strong historic gene flow (global F_ST = 0.01). However, a relationship of genetic isolation by distance across the geographical range suggests that dispersal limitation exists at the regional scale. Our approach of contrasting direct and indirect estimates of dispersal at multiple spatial scales in T. coahuila conveys a sustainable evolutionary trajectory of the species pending preservation of threatened wetland habitats and a range‐wide network of corridors.     

Effects of river temperature and climate warming on stock‐specific survival of adult migrating Fraser River sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka)

Mean summer water temperatures in the Fraser River (British Columbia, Canada) have increased by ～1.5 °C since the 1950s. In recent years, record high river temperatures during spawning migrations of Fraser River sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) have been associated with high mortality events, raising concerns about long‐term viability of the numerous natal stocks faced with climate warming. In this study, the effect of freshwater thermal experience on spawning migration survival was estimated by fitting capture–recapture models to telemetry data collected for 1474 adults (captured in either the ocean or river between 2002 and 2007) from four Fraser River sockeye salmon stock‐aggregates (Chilko, Quesnel, Stellako‐Late Stuart and Adams). Survival of Adams sockeye salmon was the most impacted by warm temperatures encountered in the lower river, followed by that of Stellako‐Late Stuart and Quesnel. In contrast, survival of Chilko fish was insensitive to the encountered river temperature. In all stocks, in‐river survival of ocean‐captured sockeye salmon was higher than that of river‐captured fish and, generally, the difference was more pronounced under warm temperatures. The survival–temperature relationships for ocean‐captured fish were used to predict historic (1961–1990) and future (2010–2099) survival under simulated lower river thermal experiences for the Quesnel, Stellako‐Late Stuart and Adams stocks. A decrease of 9–16% in survival of all these stocks was predicted by the end of the century if the Fraser River continues to warm as expected. However, the decrease in future survival of Adams sockeye salmon would occur only if fish continue to enter the river abnormally early, towards warmer periods of the summer, as they have done since 1995. The survival estimates and predictions presented here are likely optimistic and emphasize the need to consider stock‐specific responses to temperature and climate warming into fisheries management and conservation strategies.     

Effect of plant barriers and citrus leaf age on dispersal of Diaphorina citri (Hemiptera: Liviidae)

Studies designed to measure dispersal capacity of Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Hemiptera: Liviidae) are needed to provide the epidemiological knowledge necessary to improve management of citrus huanglongbing. In this study, a mark–release–recapture technique was used to investigate whether 1) host or non‐host plants of D. citri can act as barriers for dispersing insects and 2) presence or absence of young citrus leaves influence movement of D. citri towards citrus plants. The experimental field consisted of four circular and adjacent areas containing citrus trees, Citrus sinensis (L.) Osbeck cv. ‘Hamlin’, planted in concentric circles at 18, 24 and 30 m from the release centre. Insect activity was monitored by recapturing at each distance using yellow stick traps. Dense plantings of tall non‐host plants of D. citri such as corn had no effect on insect dispersal towards citrus plants when compared to a shorter cover crop such as grass. In contrast, suitable host plants acted as traps decreasing movement of D. citri. Diaphorina citri dispersed at greater speeds in the absence of young leaves reaching 140 m within 6 hours after release, whereas in the presence of young leaves, individuals reached at most 60 m at 1 day after release. Results suggest that D. citri control measures may be more efficient during periods of highest vegetative activity when insects are less active. Moreover, the use of suitable host plants for D. citri as trap plants may be a potential tactic to prevent movement of insects into the crop.     

Individually mark–mass release–resight study elucidates effects of patch characteristics and distance on host patch location by an insect herbivore

1. How organisms locate their hosts is of fundamental importance in a variety of basic and applied ecological fields, including population dynamics, invasive species management and biological control. However, tracking movement of small organisms, such as insects, poses significant logistical challenges. 2. Mass‐release and individual–mark–recapture techniques were combined in an individually mark–mass release–resight (IMMRR) approach to track the movement of over 2000 adult insects in an economically important plant–herbivore system. Despite its widespread use for the biological control of the invasive thistle Carduus nutans, the host‐finding behaviour of the thistle head weevil Rhinocyllus conicus has not previously been studied. Insects were released at different distances from a mosaic of artificially created host patches with different areas and number of plants to assess the ecological determinants of patch finding. 3. The study was able to characterize the within‐season dispersal abilities and between‐patch movement patterns of R. conicus. Weevils found host plant patches over 900 m away. Large patches, with tall plants, situated close to the nearest release point had the highest first R. conicus resights. Patch area and plant density had no effect on the number of weevils resighted per plant; however, R. conicus individuals were more likely to disperse out of small patches and into large patches. 4. By understanding how R. conicus locates host patches of C. nutans, management activities for the control of this invasive thistle can be better informed. A deeper mechanistic understanding of host location will also improve prediction of coupled plant–herbivore spatial dynamics in general.     

Demographic dynamics of the afro-tropical pig-nosed frog, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Hemisus marmoratus</Emphasis>: effects of climate and predation on survival and recruitment

We studied the population ecology of the West African pig-nosed frog, Hemisus marmoratus, to understand the relative contributions of adult survival and recruitment to population growth rate in savannah frogs using mark-recapture modelling. We marked a total of 821 adult frogs over 6 years and recaptured 74 at least once between years. Between-year adult survival was sex-specific and varied between 0.06 and 0.53 for males and 0.07–0.41 for females. Adult survival was significantly associated with annual rainfall and is cause for concern if rainfall declines further in the study region as predicted by changes in the global climate. There was a significant interaction between rainfall and sex with dry weather having a stronger negative effect on males than females. Pig-nosed frogs experienced boom and bust years with a single decline more dramatic than increases. Recruitment (in situ and immigration; 0.67–0.88) was substantially more important than adult survival (0.12–0.33) in determining realised population growth. In situ recruitment was highly variable between years with 1–36% of eggs and tadpoles released by females into the pond surviving to metamorphosis. Years of low tadpole survival were associated with high numbers of predatory tortoises. Thus, like other pond-breeding anurans, pig-nosed frogs showed highly variable juvenile recruitment, low adult survival and density-independent effects on population growth by predators and weather.     

Effect of non‐lethal sampling on life‐history traits of the protected moth Graellsia isabelae (Lepidoptera: Saturniidae)

Abstract 1. Non‐lethal genetic surveys in insects usually extract DNA from a leg or a piece of wing. Although preferable to lethal sampling, little is known about the effect of leg/wing non‐lethal sampling on fitness‐related traits. 2. Graellsia isabelae (Graells, 1849) is a European moth protected by the Habitats Directive and the Bern Convention. Conservation genetics surveys on this species should therefore use non‐lethal sampling. 3. The present study aimed to (1) quantify the effects of both leg and hind‐wing tail sampling on survivorship and reproductive behaviour of adult males and females, and (2) assess the quality and quantity of DNA obtained from those tissues. 4. Both hind‐wing tails and mid‐legs proved to be good sources of high quality nuclear and mitochondrial DNA. DNA concentration was significantly higher when extracted from a large (130 mm²) piece of the hind‐wing tails than from about half of the mid‐leg. Using mark–release–recapture experiments with adults, it was found that neither mid‐leg nor hind‐wing tail sampling significantly reduced male survivorship or total number of matings. However, although mid‐leg sampling did not significantly affect female survivorship, it had a negative effect on female mating success. 5. Wing‐tail clipping on males appeared to be the best non‐lethal sampling procedure for G. isabelae. It is a fast procedure, similar to natural wing impairment, and did not significantly affect survival or mating behaviour.     

The effects of demographic stochasticity and parameter uncertainty on predicting the establishment of introduced species

Invasive species are a serious threat to biodiversity worldwide and predicting whether an introduced species will first establish and then become invasive can be useful to preserve ecosystem services. Establishment is influenced by multiple factors, such as the interactions between the introduced individuals and the resident community, and demographic and environmental stochasticity. Field observations are often incomplete or biased. This, together with an imperfect knowledge of the ecological traits of the introduced species, makes the prediction of establishment challenging. Methods that consider the combined effects of these factors on our ability to predict the establishment of an introduced species are currently lacking. We develop an inference framework to assess the combined effects of demographic stochasticity and parameter uncertainty on our ability to predict the probability of establishment following the introduction of a small number of individuals. We find that even moderate levels of demographic stochasticity influence both the probability of establishment, and, crucially, our ability to correctly predict that probability. We also find that estimation of the demographic parameters of an introduced species is fundamental to obtain precise estimates of the interaction parameters. For typical values of demographic stochasticity, the drop in our ability to predict an establishment can be 30% when having priors on the demographic parameters compared to having their accurate values. The results from our study illustrate how demographic stochasticity may bias the prediction of the probability of establishment. Our method can be applied to estimate probability of establishment of introduced species in field scenarios, where time series data and prior information on the demographic traits of the introduced species are available.