Evaluating food availability and nest predation risk as sources of bias in aural bird surveys

ABSTRACT The use of aural surveys to estimate population parameters is widespread in avian studies. Despite efforts to increase the efficacy of this method, the potential for ecological context to bias population estimates remains largely unexplored. For example, food availability and nest predation risk can influence singing activity independent of density and, therefore, may bias aural estimates where these ecological factors vary systematically among habitats or other categories of ecological interest. We used a natural fire event in a mixed‐conifer forest that experienced variation in fire severity (low, intermediate, and high) to determine if aural surveys produce accurate density estimates of Dark‐eyed Juncos ( Junco hyemalis) independent of ecological context. During the first 2‐yr postfire, we censused junco populations in each burn type with intensive spot‐mapping and nest searching, locating 168 nests. Simultaneously, we conducted fixed‐radius point‐count surveys and estimated food availability and nest predation risk in each burn type to test whether ecological context may influence aural detection probability independent of actual density. We found no difference in nesting densities among patches burned at different severity. Arthropod food availability was inversely related to fire severity during the first postfire breeding season, but increased to higher levels across all severities during the second. In both years, aural detections were significantly greater in intermediate severity patches that consistently represented the habitat with the lowest nest predation risk. These results suggest that nest predation risk may significantly bias aural estimates of avian populations. Although traditional aural survey methods such as the Breeding Bird Survey measure habitat attributes, our findings highlight the difficulty in assessing relevant covariates in estimates of avian population. Future research must consider the potential for nest predation and other ecological factors to drive interannual or interhabitat variation in avian population estimates independent of true changes in population size.     

Density‐dependent and density‐independent drivers of population change in Barton Springs salamanders

Understanding population change is essential for conservation of imperiled species, such as amphibians. Worldwide amphibian declines have provided an impetus for investigating their population dynamics, which can involve both extrinsic (density‐independent) and intrinsic (density‐dependent) drivers acting differentially across multiple life stages or age classes. In this study, we examined the population dynamics of the endangered Barton Springs Salamander (Eurycea sosorum) using data from a long‐term monitoring program. We were interested in understanding both the potential environmental drivers (density‐independent factors) and demographic factors (interactions among size classes, negative density dependence) to better inform conservation and management activities. We used data from three different monitoring regimes and multivariate autoregressive state‐space models to quantify environmental effects (seasonality, discharge, algae, and sediment cover), intraspecific interactions among three size classes, and intra‐class density dependence. Results from our primary data set revealed similar patterns among sites and size classes and were corroborated by our out‐of‐sample data. Cross‐correlation analysis showed juvenile abundance was most strongly correlated with a 9‐month lag in aquifer discharge, which we suspect is related to inputs of organic carbon into the aquifer. However, sedimentation limited juvenile abundance at the surface, emphasizing the importance of continued sediment management. Recruitment from juveniles to the sub‐adult size class was evident, but negative density‐dependent feedback ultimately regulated each size class. Negative density dependence may be an encouraging sign for the conservation of E. sosorum because populations that can reach carrying capacity are less likely to go extinct compared to unregulated populations far below their carrying capacity. However, periodic population declines coupled with apparent migration into the aquifer complicate assessments of species status. Although both density‐dependent and density‐independent drivers of population change are not always apparent in time series of animal populations, both have important implications for conservation and management of E. sosorum.     

Ontogenetic variation in density‐dependent growth of brown trout through habitat competition

1. Density‐dependent growth has been widely reported in freshwater fishes, but the ontogenetic evolution of competition and its subsequent effects on growth through a life span remains unclear. 2. Patterns of competition can be described by integrating population abundance data with habitat‐modelling results. Weighted usable area (WUA; m² WUA ha^?1) curves are obtained for each flow value and are then coupled with demographic data to obtain the occupancy rates (trout m^?2 WUA, the density of a given age class related to its suitable habitat) of the WUA for every age class, year and site. 3. We examined a long‐term data series searching for temporal variation in the influence of habitat occupancy rate on the growth of brown trout Salmo trutta. We tested whether (i) mean cohort mass (mean mass of the cohort during the first 3 years of life) is affected by the occupancy rate experienced across a life span; and (ii) the occupancy rate experienced at different ages influenced mean body size. 4. We observed a consistent negative power relationship between average cohort mass and mean occupancy rate through a life span, indicating that stronger cohorts were related to a reduced growth, with likely consequences for individual fitness. 5. The effects of occupancy rate on size‐at‐age were mainly detected in the size attained at the second year of life, but they were because of the competition at different times. Thus, the level of competition varied through ontogeny, in some of the rivers affecting growth since the first year of life, whereas in most of the rivers the main effects on body size resulted from the competition during the second year of life. 6. Occupancy rate appears more appropriate than density for assessing the occurrence of habitat competition in freshwater fishes, since it encompasses the differences in quantity and quality of suitable habitat for each age class. 7. Our study highlights the importance of density‐dependent growth as a key process in the dynamics of brown trout populations, its temporal variation depending on the temporal changes of density and the variation of competition associated with the habitat capacity for each life stage.     

An artificial bird nest experiment in urban environments: Lessons from a school‐based citizen science programme

Maintaining suitable vegetation within urban environments is crucial for wildlife conservation in the face of anthropogenic habitat change. Here, we report on a citizen science project, involving students from seven schools across south‐eastern Australia, that investigated the effectiveness of urban vegetation as habitat for bird nests. The ‘nest concealment hypothesis’ posits that vegetation should obscure the nest from predator detection, thus reducing the likelihood of predation. To test this, participating school‐aged citizen scientists constructed artificial nests, which were placed in garden trees within school grounds and monitored for signs of predation. We found no evidence to support the nest concealment hypothesis, with no relationship between the density of vegetation immediately surrounding a nest and its likelihood of predation (binomial model:  = 1.714, P = 0.190). It was observed that 80% of the nests experienced predation. This aligns with mounting evidence suggesting that other factors, such as olfaction and adult defence, may be more important factors in the protection of bird nests. It is important to note that artificial nests are unreliable, and therefore, the veracity of the overall conclusions is limited. However, in conducting this experiment, we demonstrate the suitability of this method as a school‐based citizen science activity. This study exemplifies that field‐based experiments can used to engage future generations with conservation science.     

Testing hypotheses about the function of repeated nest abandonment as a life history strategy in a passerine bird

Nest structures are essential for successful reproduction in most bird species. Nest construction costs time and energy, and most bird species typically build one nest per breeding attempt. Some species, however, build more than one nest, and the reason for this behaviour is often unclear. In the Grey Fantail Rhipidura albiscapa, nest abandonment before egg‐laying is very common. Fantails will build up to seven nests within a breeding season, and pairs abandon up to 71% of their nests before egg‐laying. We describe multiple nest‐building behaviour in the Grey Fantail and test four hypotheses explaining nest abandonment in this species: cryptic depredation, destruction of nests during storm events, and two anti‐predatory responses (construction of decoy nests to confuse predators, and increasing concealment to ‘hide’ nests more effectively). We found support for only one hypothesis – that abandonment is related to nest concealment. Abandoned nests were significantly less concealed than nests that received eggs. Most abandoned nests were not completely built and none received eggs, thus ruling out cryptic predation. Nests were not more likely to be abandoned following storm events. The decoy nest hypothesis was refuted as abandoned nests were constructed at any point during the breeding season and some nests were dismantled and the material used to build the subsequent nest. Thus, Grey Fantails are flexible about nest‐site locations during the nest‐building phase and readily abandon nest locations if they are found to have deficient security.     

Spatio‐temporal dynamics of density‐dependent dispersal during a population colonisation

Predicting population colonisations requires understanding how spatio‐temporal changes in density affect dispersal. Density can inform on fitness prospects, acting as a cue for either habitat quality, or competition over resources. However, when escaping competition, high local density should only increase emigration if lower‐density patches are available elsewhere. Few empirical studies on dispersal have considered the effects of density at the local and landscape scale simultaneously. To explore this, we analyze 5 years of individual‐based data from an experimental introduction of wild guppies Poecilia reticulata. Natal dispersal showed a decrease in local density dependence as density at the landscape level increased. Landscape density did not affect dispersal among adults, but local density‐dependent dispersal switched from negative (conspecific attraction) to positive (conspecific avoidance), as the colonisation progressed. This study demonstrates that densities at various scales interact to determine dispersal, and suggests that dispersal trade‐offs differ across life stages.     

Spatial variation in the magnitude and functional form of density‐dependent processes on the large skipper butterfly Ochlodes sylvanus

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Testing sources of variation in nestling‐stage nest success of Florida Scrub‐Jays in suburban and wildland habitats

Human modification of habitats can reduce reproductive success by providing novel cues to which birds may respond with behaviors that are actually maladaptive in those environments. Ad libitum human‐provided foods may provide the perception that urban habitats are food‐rich even as natural food availability decreases. Similarly, human activity may increase the perception that predation risk is high even as natural predators may decrease in abundance. In response, birds may reduce parental care with a subsequent cost to successful reproduction. Florida Scrub‐Jays (Aphelocoma coerulescens) in suburban areas have lower nest success during the nestling period than do wildland jays, possibly the result of such maladaptive responses, but maybe because of ecological differences with wildlands. We manipulated adult perception of predation risk and the availability of nestling foods in suburban and wildland areas to determine if these factors influenced parental care and nestling begging, and if the behavioral responses of adults influence nest survival during the nestling stage. Experimentally increasing perception of predation risk reduced parental care by both suburban and wildland females, but did not influence care by males. Increasing food availability, but not predation risk, had little influence on parental care, but resulted in decreased nestling begging rates and an increase in the frequency (pitch) of begging calls in both habitats. However, neither parental care nor food availability influenced nest survival during the nestling stage. Instead, the presence of helpers was the most important variable in nest survival analyses, suggesting that habitat‐specific differences in nest survival during the nestling stage were not simply the result of maladaptive parental behavior or shortage of nestling food resources in the suburban habitat. The lack of helpers combined with ecological differences, such as the abundance of nest predators, may be why fewer nests of Florida Scrub‐Jays survive during this stage in suburban areas.     

Environmental change drives long‐term recruitment and growth variation in an estuarine fish

How individuals respond to environmental change determines the strength and direction of biological processes like recruitment and growth that underpin population productivity. Ascertaining the relative importance of environmental factors can, however, be difficult given the numerous mechanisms through which they affect individuals. This is especially true in dynamic and complex estuarine environments. Here, we develop long‐term otolith‐based indices of recruitment and growth for estuary perch Percalates colonorum (Bemm River, Australia), to explore the importance of intrinsic (individual, demographic) and extrinsic (hydrologic, climatic, density‐dependent) factors in driving estuarine fish productivity. Analyses involved a novel zero‐inflated specification of catch curve regression and mixed effects modelling. The 39 years of recruitment and 46 years of growth data, spanning a period of environmental change including severe drought, displayed considerable inter‐annual variation. Recruitment success was strongly related to high freshwater inflows during the spawning season, suggesting that these conditions act as spawning cues for adults and potentially provide favourable conditions for larvae. Individuals displayed age‐dependent growth, with highest rates observed at younger ages in years characterized by warm temperatures, and to a lesser degree, greater magnitude base inflow conditions. We detected systematic among‐year‐class growth differences, but these were not attributable to year class strength, suggesting that environmental conditions experienced by individuals as juveniles can have long‐lasting effects of greater importance to population productivity than density‐dependent growth responses. The primacy of temperature in driving growth variation highlights that under‐appreciated climatic variation can affect estuarine fish productivity through direct physiological and indirect food web mechanisms. We predict that climatic warming will promote individual growth in southerly populations of P. colonorum but concurrently limit recruitment due to forecast reductions in spawning season river discharge. Disparate trait responses are likely in other fishes as they respond to multiple and changing environmental drivers, making predictions of future population productivity challenging.     

A review of predation as a limiting factor for bird populations in mesopredator‐rich landscapes: a case study of the UK

The impact of increasing vertebrate predator numbers on bird populations is widely debated among the general public, game managers and conservationists across Europe. However, there are few systematic reviews of whether predation limits the population sizes of European bird species. Views on the impacts of predation are particularly polarised in the UK, probably because the UK has a globally exceptional culture of intensive, high‐yield gamebird management where predator removal is the norm. In addition, most apex predators have been exterminated or much depleted in numbers, contributing to a widely held perception that the UK has high numbers of mesopredators. This has resulted in many high‐quality studies of mesopredator impacts over several decades. Here we present results from a systematic review of predator trends and abundance, and assess whether predation limits the population sizes of 90 bird species in the UK. Our results confirm that the generalist predators Red Fox (Vulpes vulpes) and Crows (Corvus corone and C. cornix) occur at high densities in the UK compared with other European countries. In addition, some avian and mammalian predators have increased numerically in the UK during recent decades. Despite these high and increasing densities of predators, we found little evidence that predation limits populations of pigeons, woodpeckers and passerines, whereas evidence suggests that ground‐nesting seabirds, waders and gamebirds can be limited by predation. Using life‐history characteristics of prey species, we found that mainly long‐lived species with high adult survival and late onset of breeding were limited by predation. Single‐brooded species were also more likely to be limited by predation than multi‐brooded species. Predators that depredate prey species during all life stages (i.e. from nest to adult stages) limited prey numbers more than predators that depredated only specific life stages (e.g. solely during the nest phase). The Red Fox and non‐native mammals (e.g. the American Mink Neovison vison) were frequently identified as numerically limiting their prey species. Our review has identified predator–prey interactions that are particularly likely to result in population declines of prey species. In the short term, traditional predator‐management techniques (e.g. lethal control or fencing to reduce predation by a small number of predator species) could be used to protect these vulnerable species. However, as these techniques are costly and time‐consuming, we advocate that future research should identify land‐use practices and landscape configurations that would reduce predator numbers and predation rates.     

Effective size of density‐dependent populations in fluctuating environments

Reliable estimates of effective population size are of central importance in population genetics and evolutionary biology. For populations that fluctuate in size, harmonic mean population size is commonly used as a proxy for (multi‐) generational effective size. This assumes no effects of density dependence on the ratio between effective and actual population size, which limits its potential application. Here, we introduce density dependence on vital rates in a demographic model of variance effective size. We derive an expression for the ratio in a density‐regulated population in a fluctuating environment. We show by simulations that yearly genetic drift is accurately predicted by our model, and not proportional to as assumed by the harmonic mean model, where N is the total population size of mature individuals. We find a negative relationship between and N. For a given N, the ratio depends on variance in reproductive success and the degree of resource limitation acting on the population growth rate. Finally, our model indicate that environmental stochasticity may affect not only through fluctuations in N, but also for a given N at a given time. Our results show that estimates of effective population size must include effects of density dependence and environmental stochasticity.     

Management of modern agricultural landscapes increases nest predation rates in Black‐tailed Godwits Limosa limosa

Effective conservation of endangered species requires a solid understanding of the demographic causes of population change. Bird populations breeding on agricultural grasslands have declined because their preferred habitat of herb‐rich meadows has been replaced by grassland monocultures. The timing of agricultural activities in these monocultural grasslands is critical, as they often coincide with the nesting phase of breeding birds. Here, we aim to identify the effect of habitat management and targeted nest protection on nest survival of Black‐tailed Godwits Limosa limosa in the Netherlands, a population that has shown a 70% reduction in breeding population size since the 1970s. To protect nests in monocultures from destruction, farmers are paid to either delay mowing or leave a patch of unmown grass around the nest, a patch which in practice varied in size. In herb‐rich meadows, which are typically managed for bird conservation purposes, mowing occurs after hatching. Nest survival declined as the season advanced, more steeply on monocultures than on meadows. Targeted nest protection was only partially successful, as nest predation was considerably higher on mown grassland monocultures with small unmown patches around the nest than in mown monocultures with large unmown patches and in unmown fields. Increased predator densities over the years have been suggested as an important cause of the trend towards lower nest survival, but here we show that nest survival was higher on herb‐rich meadows than on monocultures, and similar to the 1980s. It thus seems that increased predator densities are an increased threat during the egg stage only if habitat quality is low. High‐quality habitat in the form of herb‐rich meadows therefore provides a degree of protection against predators.     

Intraspecific and interspecific competition induces density‐dependent habitat niche shifts in an endangered steppe bird

Interspecific competition is a dominant force in animal communities that induces niche shifts in ecological and evolutionary time. If competition occurs, niche expansion can be expected when the competitor disappears because resources previously inaccessible due to competitive constraints can then be exploited (i.e., ecological release). Here, we aimed to determine the potential effects of interspecific competition between the little bustard (Tetrax tetrax) and the great bustard (Otis tarda) using a multidimensional niche approach with habitat distribution data. We explored whether the degree of niche overlap between the species was a density‐dependent function of interspecific competition. We then looked for evidences of ecological release by comparing measures of niche breadth and position of the little bustard between allopatric and sympatric situations. Furthermore, we evaluated whether niche shifts could depend not only on the presence of great bustard but also on the density of little and great bustards. The habitat niches of these bustard species partially overlapped when co‐occurring, but we found no relationship between degree of overlap and great bustard density. In the presence of the competitor, little bustard's niche was displaced toward increased use of the species' primary habitat. Little bustard's niche breadth decreased proportionally with great bustard density in sympatric sites, in consistence with theory. Overall, our results suggest that density‐dependent variation in little bustard's niche is the outcome of interspecific competition with the great bustard. The use of computational tools like kernel density estimators to obtain multidimensional niches should bring novel insights on how species' ecological niches behave under the effects of interspecific competition in ecological communities.     

The role of nest‐site selection and cereal production in differential nest predation in Common Quail Coturnix coturnix and hybrid quail C. coturnix × C. japonica

In Europe, farm‐reared quail used for restocking purposes are often hybrids between the Common Quail Coturnix coturnix and the Japanese Quail Coturnix japonica. These hybrids interbreed with wild Common Quail populations and suffer higher rates of nest predation, which would suggest that the two quail types have different nest‐site selection patterns. We monitored 103 radiotagged nesting females (77 wild Common Quail over 18 breeding seasons and 26 hybrid quail over six breeding seasons) and analysed their nest placement behaviour. Our results did not provide any evidence that the quail types showed different nest‐site selection trends, as they all preferred to nest near cereal field margins. The higher nest predation rate experienced by hybrids might therefore be explained by less effective anti‐predator behaviour among hybrid females during incubation. As no edge effect on nest predation was observed, the preference for nesting close to cereal margins could be due to the greater food resources of field margins. Moreover, Common Quail nest predation decreased with a rise in barley straw production, supporting evidence that nest cover plays an important role in the prevention of nest predation in this species. No such relationship was found for hybrid quail, but this result is not conclusive, as the data on barley straw production for hybrid quail covered a much smaller range of interannual variability. Barley straw production in Catalonia decreased significantly between 1992 and 2012, possibly as a result of a change in the barley varieties used. This practice could entail a conservation threat for ground‐nesting bird species.     

Disentangling climatic and nest predator impact on reproductive output reveals adverse high-temperature effects regardless of helper number in an arid-region cooperative bird

Climate exerts a major influence on reproductive processes, and an understanding of the mechanisms involved and which factors might mitigate adverse weather is fundamental under the ongoing climate change. Here, we study how weather and nest predation influence reproductive output in a social species, and examine whether larger group sizes can mitigate the adverse effects of these factors. We used a 7-year nest predator-exclusion experiment on an arid-region cooperatively breeding bird, the sociable weaver. We found that dry and, especially, hot weather were major drivers of nestling mortality through their influence on nest predation. However, when we experimentally excluded nest predators, these conditions were still strongly associated with nestling mortality. Group size was unimportant against nest predation and, although positively associated with reproductive success, it did not mitigate the effects of adverse weather. Hence, cooperative breeding might have a limited capacity to mitigate extreme weather effects.     

Density‐dependent and density‐independent growth in a population of juvenile sea‐trout,Salmo trutta,assessed using long‐term data from a small stream in Northwest England

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Predation yields greater population performance: what are the contributions of density‐ and trait‐mediated effects?

1. Population responses to extrinsic mortality can yield no change in the number of survivors (compensation) or an increase in the number of survivors (overcompensation) when the population is regulated by negative density‐dependence. This intriguing response has been the subject of theoretical studies, but few experiments have explored how the source of extrinsic mortality affects the response.
2. This study tests abilities of three functionally diverse predators, alone and combined, to induce (over)compensation of a prey population. Larval Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) were exposed to predation by Mesocyclops longisetus (Crustacea: Copepoda), Anopheles barberi (Diptera: Culicidae), Corethrella appendiculata (Diptera: Corethrellidae), all three in a substitutive design, or no predation.
3. Predator treatment had no significant effect on the total number of adult survivors, nor on numbers of surviving males or females. The female development rate and a composite index of performance (r′) were greater with predation relative to no‐predator control. No differences were detected between diverse and single‐species predator treatments.
4. Sensitivity analyses indicated predation effects on the number of female adults produced, despite not being affected significantly, was the largest contributing factor to significant treatment effects on the demographic index r′. While predation did not significantly increase the production of adults, it did release survivors from density‐dependent effects sufficiently to increase population performance. This study provides an empirical test of mechanisms by which predation may yield positive mortality effects on victim populations, a phenomenon predicted to occur across many taxa and food webs.

     

Nest survival rates of Red‐crested Cardinals increase with nest age in south‐temperate forests of Argentina

ABSTRACT The main cause of nest mortality for most bird species is predation and nest survival rates often vary in relation to time‐specific variables. Few investigators have examined time‐specific patterns of nest survival in Neotropical birds, and most such studies have focused on tropical and subtropical species. To better understand age‐related patterns of nest survival, we studied nest survival of Red‐crested Cardinals (Paroaria coronata, Thraupidae) in a south‐temperate forest in Argentina. We modeled daily nest survival rates (DSR) using program MARK. We examined the relationship between nest age and nest survival rate, controlling for the effects of physical characteristics of nest sites and progression of the breeding season. We monitored 367 nests for a total of 4018 exposure days. We found that DSR increased with nest age and was higher in small isolated patches than in large continuous patches of forests. The increase of DSR with nest age could be a consequence of more vulnerable nests being predated early in the nesting cycle or a result of parents defending nests more vigorously as nestlings age because of their increasing reproductive value. Open areas of grassland that surrounded the small isolated patches of forests in our study may have been a barrier to predator movements, possibly explaining the lower predation rates. Nest survival rates in our study were lower than those reported for tropical or Nearctic temperate birds, but similar to those reported in other studies of Neotropical temperate birds. Reasons for the low nest survival rates of Neotropical temperate birds remain unclear, and additional studies of predator communities are needed to help elucidate this topic.