The fate of the Arctic seaweed Fucus distichus under climate change: an ecological niche modeling approach

Rising temperatures are predicted to melt all perennial ice cover in the Arctic by the end of this century, thus opening up suitable habitat for temperate and subarctic species. Canopy‐forming seaweeds provide an ideal system to predict the potential impact of climate‐change on rocky‐shore ecosystems, given their direct dependence on temperature and their key role in the ecological system. Our primary objective was to predict the climate‐change induced range‐shift of Fucus distichus, the dominant canopy‐forming macroalga in the Arctic and subarctic rocky intertidal. More specifically, we asked: which Arctic/subarctic and cold‐temperate shores of the northern hemisphere will display the greatest distributional change of F. distichus and how will this affect niche overlap with seaweeds from temperate regions? We used the program MAXENT to develop correlative ecological niche models with dominant range‐limiting factors and 169 occurrence records. Using three climate‐change scenarios, we projected habitat suitability of F. distichus – and its niche overlap with three dominant temperate macroalgae – until year 2200. Maximum sea surface temperature was identified as the most important factor in limiting the fundamental niche of F. distichus. Rising temperatures were predicted to have low impact on the species' southern distribution limits, but to shift its northern distribution limits poleward into the high Arctic. In cold‐temperate to subarctic regions, new areas of niche overlap were predicted between F. distichus and intertidal macroalgae immigrating from the south. While climate‐change threatens intertidal seaweeds in warm‐temperate regions, seaweed meadows will likely flourish in the Arctic intertidal. Although this enriches biodiversity and opens up new seaweed‐harvesting grounds, it will also trigger unpredictable changes in the structure and functioning of the Arctic intertidal ecosystem.     

Experimental icing affects growth,mortality, and flowering in a high Arctic dwarf shrub

Effects of climate change are predicted to be greatest at high latitudes, with more pronounced warming in winter than summer. Extreme mid‐winter warm spells and heavy rain‐on‐snow events are already increasing in frequency in the Arctic, with implications for snow‐pack and ground‐ice formation. These may in turn affect key components of Arctic ecosystems. However, the fitness consequences of extreme winter weather events for tundra plants are not well understood, especially in the high Arctic. We simulated an extreme mid‐winter rain‐on‐snow event at a field site in high Arctic Svalbard (78°N) by experimentally encasing tundra vegetation in ice. After the subsequent growing season, we measured the effects of icing on growth and fitness indices in the common tundra plant, Arctic bell‐heather (Cassiope tetragona). The suitability of this species for retrospective growth analysis enabled us to compare shoot growth in pre and postmanipulation years in icing treatment and control plants, as well as shoot survival and flowering. Plants from icing treatment plots had higher shoot mortality and lower flowering success than controls. At the individual sample level, heavily flowering plants invested less in shoot growth than nonflowering plants, while shoot growth was positively related to the degree of shoot mortality. Therefore, contrary to expectation, undamaged shoots showed enhanced growth in ice treatment plants. This suggests that following damage, aboveground resources were allocated to the few remaining undamaged meristems. The enhanced shoot growth measured in our icing treatment plants has implications for climate studies based on retrospective analyses of Cassiope. As shoot growth in this species responds positively to summer warming, it also highlights a potentially complex interaction between summer and winter conditions. By documenting strong effects of icing on growth and reproduction of a widespread tundra plant, our study contributes to an understanding of Arctic plant responses to projected changes in winter climatic conditions.     

Impact of a glossy collard trap crop on diamondback moth adult movement, oviposition, and larval survival

One component of developing a systematic approach for deployment of trap crops is to understand how the trap crop modifies pest behavior. Glossy‐leafed collards, Brassica oleracea L. var. acephala (Brassicaceae), were evaluated as a potential trap crop for diamondback moth, Plutella xylostella (L.) (Lepidoptera: Plutellidae), because they are attractive to P. xylostella adults and are a poor host for P. xylostella larvae compared to cabbage, Brassica oleracea L. var. capitata. We used large field plots to measure the changes in adult, egg, and larval P. xylostella densities in cabbage when the trap crop was planted in the field. Furthermore, we planted the trap crop in dispersed and concentrated spatial arrangements to determine the impact of trap crop arrangement on the behavior of P. xylostella. In 2002, results showed that the presence of collards within a cabbage field reduced larval density on cabbage. In 2003, neither trap crop arrangement had a significant impact on P. xylostella larval density on cabbage. Adult moths aggregated in proximity to collards in 2002, but not in 2003. Egg and larval data in both years in all treatments showed that total oviposition was highest near a central release point, indicating that females lay many eggs before dispersing very far when suitable host plants are available. The mean direction of P. xylostella movement and oviposition from a central release point was not consistent or correlated to wind direction. Plant size of the trap crop in relation to the main crop and environmental factors may have been responsible for the inconsistent effectiveness of the trap crop.     

Changes in trophic state and aquatic communities in high Arctic ponds in response to increasing goose populations

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Synergistic effects of ocean acidification and warming on overwintering pteropods in the Arctic

Ocean acidification and warming will be most pronounced in the Arctic Ocean. Aragonite shell‐bearing pteropods in the Arctic are expected to be among the first species to suffer from ocean acidification. Carbonate undersaturation in the Arctic will first occur in winter and because this period is also characterized by low food availability, the overwintering stages of polar pteropods may develop into a bottleneck in their life cycle. The impacts of ocean acidification and warming on growth, shell degradation (dissolution), and mortality of two thecosome pteropods, the polar Limacina helicina and the boreal L. retroversa, were studied for the first time during the Arctic winter in the Kongsfjord (Svalbard). The abundance of L. helicina and L. retroversa varied from 23.5 to 120 ind m^?2 and 12 to 38 ind m^?2, and the mean shell size ranged from 920 to 981 μm and 810 to 823 μm, respectively. Seawater was aragonite‐undersaturated at the overwintering depths of pteropods on two out of ten days of our observations. A 7‐day experiment [temperature levels: 2 and 7 °C, pCO₂ levels: 350, 650 (only for L. helicina) and 880 μatm] revealed a significant pCO₂ effect on shell degradation in both species, and synergistic effects between temperature and pCO₂ for L. helicina. A comparison of live and dead specimens kept under the same experimental conditions indicated that both species were capable of actively reducing the impacts of acidification on shell dissolution. A higher vulnerability to increasing pCO₂ and temperature during the winter season is indicated compared with a similar study from fall 2009. Considering the species winter phenology and the seasonal changes in carbonate chemistry in Arctic waters, negative climate change effects on Arctic thecosomes are likely to show up first during winter, possibly well before ocean acidification effects become detectable during the summer season.     

Is the poleward expansion by Atlantic cod and haddock threatening native polar cod, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Boreogadus saida</Emphasis>?

During a recent period of increased influx of warm Atlantic water to the western coast of Svalbard, we have observed a northward expansion of boreal Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) into areas dominated by the native polar cod (Boreogadus saida). To determine the potential impact of new ecological interactions, we studied the diet of co-occurring juvenile gadoids in fjords, open water, and sea ice around Svalbard. We also reviewed the available literature on polar cod feeding in different habitats across the Arctic to determine whether region, habitat, or fish size may influence diet. Feeding by polar cod in the pelagic zone was size dependent, with small fish primarily consuming Calanus spp. and smaller copepods, with an increasing ration of Themisto spp. at larger sizes. In benthic habitats, diets were more varied and included considerably more unidentified material and sediment. Less than 40% dietary overlap was detected among the three species when they were found together. Stable isotope analyses indicated these patterns were representative of longer-term assimilation. The low interspecific dietary overlap suggests little direct competition. Future increases in abundance and the high predation potential of the boreal taxa, however, may impact the persistence of polar cod on some Arctic shelves.     

Climate change impacts on wildlife in a High Arctic archipelago – Svalbard,Norway

The Arctic is warming more rapidly than other region on the planet, and the northern Barents Sea, including the Svalbard Archipelago, is experiencing the fastest temperature increases within the circumpolar Arctic, along with the highest rate of sea ice loss. These physical changes are affecting a broad array of resident Arctic organisms as well as some migrants that occupy the region seasonally. Herein, evidence of climate change impacts on terrestrial and marine wildlife in Svalbard is reviewed, with a focus on bird and mammal species. In the terrestrial ecosystem, increased winter air temperatures and concomitant increases in the frequency of ‘rain‐on‐snow’ events are one of the most important facets of climate change with respect to impacts on flora and fauna. Winter rain creates ice that blocks access to food for herbivores and synchronizes the population dynamics of the herbivore–predator guild. In the marine ecosystem, increases in sea temperature and reductions in sea ice are influencing the entire food web. These changes are affecting the foraging and breeding ecology of most marine birds and mammals and are associated with an increase in abundance of several temperate fish, seabird and marine mammal species. Our review indicates that even though a few species are benefiting from a warming climate, most Arctic endemic species in Svalbard are experiencing negative consequences induced by the warming environment. Our review emphasizes the tight relationships between the marine and terrestrial ecosystems in this High Arctic archipelago. Detecting changes in trophic relationships within and between these ecosystems requires long‐term (multidecadal) demographic, population‐ and ecosystem‐based monitoring, the results of which are necessary to set appropriate conservation priorities in relation to climate warming.     

Feeding responses of specialist herbivores to plant extracts and pure allelochemicals: effects of prolonged exposure

We investigated the possibility of decreased feeding deterrent response following prolonged exposure in three specialist herbivores, Plutella xylostella (larvae), Pseudaletia unipuncta (larvae), and Epilachna varivestis (adults) through leaf disc choice and no‐choice tests. Neonate larvae (<24 h old) of the three species were reared on their host plants sprayed with the antifeedants until tested. Our results demonstrated that Ps. unipuncta did not show a decrease in feeding deterrent response to extracts of Melia volkensii (choice and no‐choice tests) or oregano (Origanum vulgare) (choice test) following prolonged exposure. Plutella xylostella exhibited a decrease in feeding deterrent response to M. volkensii in a choice test only, but not to oregano. Although not significant, we did find a trend toward decreasing feeding deterrent response to M. volkensii by both species in no‐choice tests. However, both species exhibited a significant decrease in feeding deterrent response to pure allelochemicals (Ps. unipuncta to thymol, and P. xylostella to thymol and toosendanin) compared with the naïve groups, following prolonged exposure in leaf disc choice tests. Epilachna varivestis showed a significant decrease in feeding deterrent responses to both oregano and thymol in leaf disc choice tests. We conclude from our present and previous studies that not only are there interspecific differences between generalist and specialist species but also among specialist species.     

Plant communities along environmental gradients of high‐arctic mires in Sassendalen,Svalbard

Abstract. The wet to moist bryophyte‐dominated vegetation of Sassendalen, Svalbard, was classified into seven communities. These communities were grouped into (1) Cardamino nymanii‐Saxifragion foliolosae marsh; (2) Caricion stantis fen; (3) Luzulion nivalis snowbed – including manured vegetation corresponding to moss tundras. All communities have a basically arctic distribution. Marshes are developed in habitats with a water table above the bryophyte vegetation surface and fens on sites with a water table level high above the permafrost but below the bryophyte surface. Moss tundras normally have no standing water table, but in Sassendalen they have a low water table due to their development on less steep slopes than in their normal habitat near bird cliffs. CCA confirms that the standing water level is the prime differentiating factor between the alliances, while aspect favourability and permafrost depth differentiate between the fen communities and temporary desiccation is important for the Catoscopium nigritum community. Carex subspathacea is a characteristic fen species in the absence of other Carex species dominating elsewhere in the Arctic. Arctic marshes are linked to an extremely cold environment. They have a very low species diversity with a few species dominating; Arctophila fulva, Pseudocalliergon trifarium, Scorpidium scorpioides and Warnstorfia tundrae are character species. Moss tundra as defined here appears to be restricted to Svalbard and, probably, neighbouring Novaya Zemlya. This may be due to the absence of rodents and the high seabird density, which is related to the mild sea currents reaching further to the north here and which implies manuring of surrounding ecosystems. Manuring in a very cold environment produces moss carpets with a thin active layer and accumulation of thick peat layers without a standing water level. In Sassendalen the role of arctic seabirds is replaced by Svalbard reindeer which are nonmigratory and are concentrated to favourable grazing areas where their manuring effect is intense. Their long‐term manuring effect probably explains the occurrence of moss tundras in this weakly rolling landscape where seabird colonies are absent.     

Low host specificity of root‐associated fungi at an Arctic site

In High Arctic ecosystems, plant growth and reproduction are limited by low soil moisture and nutrient availability, low soil and air temperatures, and a short growing season. Mycorrhizal associations facilitate plant nutrient acquisition and water uptake and may therefore be particularly ecologically important in nutrition‐poor and dry environments, such as parts of the Arctic. Similarly, endophytic root associates are thought to play a protective role, increasing plants' stress tolerance, and likely have an important ecosystem function. Despite the importance of these root‐associated fungi, little is known about their host specificity in the Arctic. We investigated the host specificity of root‐associated fungi in the common, widely distributed arctic plant species Bistorta vivipara, Salix polaris and Dryas octopetala in the High Arctic archipelago Svalbard. High‐throughput sequencing of the internal transcribed spacer 1 (ITS1) amplified from whole root systems generated no evidence of host specificity and no spatial autocorrelation within two 3 m × 3 m sample plots. The lack of spatial structure at small spatial scales indicates that Common Mycelial Networks (CMNs) are rare in marginal arctic environments. Moreover, no significant differences in fungal OTU richness were observed across the three plant species, although their root system characteristics (size, biomass) differed considerably. Reasons for lack of host specificity could be that association with generalist fungi may allow arctic plants to more rapidly and easily colonize newly available habitats, and it may be favourable to establish symbiotic relationships with fungi possessing different physiological attributes.     

Contrasting physiological responses to future ocean acidification among Arctic copepod populations

Widespread ocean acidification (OA) is modifying the chemistry of the global ocean, and the Arctic is recognized as the region where the changes will progress at the fastest rate. Moreover, Arctic species show lower capacity for cellular homeostasis and acid‐base regulation rendering them particularly vulnerable to OA. In the present study, we found physiological differences in OA response across geographically separated populations of the keystone Arctic copepod Calanus glacialis. In copepodites stage CIV, measured reaction norms of ingestion rate and metabolic rate showed severe reductions in ingestion and increased metabolic expenses in two populations from Svalbard (Kongsfjord and Billefjord) whereas no effects were observed in a population from the Disko Bay, West Greenland. At pH_T 7.87, which has been predicted for the Svalbard west coast by year 2100, these changes resulted in reductions in scope for growth of 19% in the Kongsfjord and a staggering 50% in the Billefjord. Interestingly, these effects were not observed in stage CV copepodites from any of the three locations. It seems that CVs may be more tolerant to OA perhaps due to a general physiological reorganization to meet low intracellular pH during hibernation. Needless to say, the observed changes in the CIV stage will have serious implications for the C. glacialis population health status and growth around Svalbard. However, OA tolerant populations such as the one in the Disko Bay could help to alleviate severe effects in C. glacialis as a species.     

Surviving in the High Arctic: dental variation in a casually introduced population of Microtus rossiaemeridionalis (Arvicolinae,Rodentia) on Svalbard

A human‐mediated invasion of a temperate rodent Microtus rossiaemeridionalis on the High Arctic Archipelago of Svalbard in the first half of the 20th century provides an opportunity to explore extent and rate of morphological divergence over decades of isolation. We studied dental size and morphology in 124 voles captured on Svalbard (Spitsbergen) in 1997–2005 and compared the data to mainland conspecific populations across northern Eurasia. Both dental and cranial sizes in the Svalbard population fall within the limits of natural variation of the species. Dental morphology suggests that the population experiences strong effects of isolation as indicated by the significant increase in the frequency of rare dental morphs, possibly caused by inbreeding. No evidence for directional shift towards increased or decreased complexity of the morphotype dental patterns is revealed. Although the population on Svalbard is phenotypically different from the mainland populations (due to increased frequency of rare morphs), those differences are not enough to support the idea of initial rapid evolution related to colonization. The limited spatial extent and environmental homogeneity of suitable habitats on the island allowed the species to initially multiply but not to diversify so that the species exhibits phenotypic conservatism but suffers the consequences of small population size.     

An arctic community of symbiotic fungi assembled by long‐distance dispersers: phylogenetic diversity of ectomycorrhizal basidiomycetes in Svalbard based on soil and sporocarp DNA

Aim Current evidence from temperate studies suggests that ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi require overland routes for migration because of their obligate symbiotic associations with woody plants. Despite their key roles in arctic ecosystems, the phylogenetic diversity and phylogeography of arctic ECM fungi remains little known. Here we assess the phylogenetic diversity of ECM communities in an isolated, formerly glaciated, high arctic archipelago, and provide explanations for their phylogeographic origins. Location Svalbard. Methods We generated and analysed internal transcribed spacer (ITS) nuclear ribosomal DNA sequences from both curated sporocarp collections (from Svalbard) and soil polymerase chain reaction (PCR) clone libraries (from Svalbard and the North American Arctic), compared these with publicly available sequences in GenBank, and estimated the phylogenetic diversity of ECM fungi in Svalbard. In addition, we conducted coalescent analyses to estimate migration rates in selected species. Results Despite Svalbard’s geographic isolation and arctic climate, its ECM fungi are surprisingly diverse, with at least 72 non‐singleton operational taxonomic units (soil) and 109 phylogroups (soil + sporocarp). The most species‐rich genera are Thelephora/Tomentella, Cortinarius and Inocybe, followed by Hebeloma, Russula, Lactarius, Entoloma, Sebacina, Clavulina, Laccaria, Leccinum and Alnicola. Despite the scarcity of available reference data from other arctic regions, the majority of the phylogroups (73.4%) were also found outside Svalbard. At the same time, all putative Svalbard ‘endemics’ were newly sequenced taxa from diverse genera with massive undocumented diversity. Overall, our results support long‐distance dispersal more strongly than vicariance and glacial survival. However, because of the high variation in nucleotide substitution rates among fungi, allopatric persistence since the Pliocene, although unlikely, cannot be statistically rejected. Results from the coalescent analyses suggest recent gene flow among different arctic areas. Main conclusions Our results indicate numerous recent colonization events and suggest that long‐distance, transoceanic dispersal is widespread in arctic ECM fungi, which differs markedly from the currently prevailing view on the dispersal capabilities of ECM fungi. Our molecular evidence indicates that long‐distance dispersal has probably played a major role in the phylogeographic history of some ECM fungi in the Northern Hemisphere. Our results may have implications for studies on the biodiversity, ecology and conservation of arctic fungi in general.     

Performance of specialist and generalist herbivores feeding on cabbage cultivars is not explained by glucosinolate profiles

Plants display a wide range of chemical defences that may differ in effectiveness against generalist and specialist insect herbivores. Host plant‐specific secondary chemicals such as glucosinolates (GS) in Brassicaceae typically reduce the performance of generalist herbivores, whereas specialists have adaptations to detoxify these compounds. The concentration of glucosinolates may also alter upon herbivory, allowing the plant to tailor its response to specifically affect the performance of the attacking herbivore. We studied the performance of three Lepidoptera species, two specialists [Pieris rapae L. (Pieridae), Plutella xylostella L. (Yponomeutidae)] and one generalist [Mamestra brassicae L. (Noctuidae)], when feeding on eight cultivars of Brassica oleracea L. and a native congener (Brassica nigra L.) and related this to the GS content. We tested the hypotheses (i) that a generalist herbivore is more affected by high GS concentrations, and (ii) that generalist feeding has a stronger effect on GS levels. Although performance of the three herbivores was different on the B. oleracea cultivars, M. brassicae and P. xylostella had a similar ranking order of performance on the eight cultivars. In most of the cultivars, the concentration of indole GS was significantly higher after feeding by P. rapae or M. brassicae than after P. xylostella feeding. As a consequence, the total concentration of GS in the cultivars showed a different ranking order for each herbivore species. The generalist M. brassicae performed equally well as the specialist P. xylostella on cultivars with high concentrations of GS. Our findings suggest that secondary metabolites other than GSs or differences in nutrient levels affect performance of the species studied.     

Larval survival,host plant preferences and developmental responses of the diamondback moth Plutella xylostella (Lepidoptera: Plutellidae) on wild brassicaceous species

The diamondback moth Plutella xylostella (L.) (Lepidoptera: Plutellidae) is an important pest of cultivated brassicaceous crops worldwide. The host plant preferences, developmental biology and survival and longevity of P. xylostella are relatively well understood on commercial crop species; however, its relationship with brassicaceous weeds is poorly known. Sinapis arvensis L., Erysimum cheiranthoides L. and Capsella bursa‐pastoris (L.) Medicus are among the most common brassicaceous weeds worldwide and can serve as important bridge hosts of P. xylostella. In this study, preference and performance of P. xylostella were compared on these weed species. In free‐choice situations, females deposited 5.5 and 18.8 times more eggs on S. arvensis than on E. cheiranthoides and C. bursa‐pastoris, respectively. Survival from neonate to pupa and from pupa to adult was highest on S. arvensis and E. cheiranthoides and lowest on C. bursa‐pastoris. Development was fastest, foliage consumption was greatest, pupae and silk cocoons were heaviest, adult body masses and longevities were highest and forewings were largest for both females and males when reared as larvae on S. arvensis. Realized fecundity of new generation adults was highest for individuals reared on S. arvensis compared to those reared on E. cheiranthoides or C. bursa‐pastoris. Relative growth rates of pupae and adults were highest on S. arvensis, suggesting that this plant species is a high‐quality host for P. xylostella compared with other species tested. Potential impacts of these wild brassicaceous species on P. xylostella populations are discussed.     

Microsatellite DNA evidence for genetic drift and philopatry in Svalbard reindeer

Mainland populations of Arctic reindeer and caribou Rangifer tarandus often undergo extensive movements, whereas populations on islands tend to be isolated and sedentary. To characterize the genetic consequences of this difference, levels of genetic diversity and subdivision of Svalbard reindeer (R. t. platyrhynchus) from two adjacent areas on Nordenskjiöldland, Spitsbergen were estimated using data from up to 14 microsatellites. The mean number of alleles per locus in Svalbard reindeer was 2.4 and mean expected heterozygosity per locus was 0.36. The latter value was significantly lower than in Canadian caribou and Norwegian reindeer but higher than in some other cervid species. Large samples of females (n = 743) and small samples of males (n = 38) from two sites ≈ 45 km apart showed genetic subdivision, which could be due to local population fluctuations or limited gene flow. To our knowledge, this is the first study to report significant differentiation at microsatellite loci in Rangifer at such short geographical distances. Neither population showed genetic evidence for recent population bottlenecks when loci unbiased with respect to heterozygosity were analysed. In contrast, false signals of a recent bottleneck were detected when loci upwardly biased with respect to heterozygosity were analysed. Thus, Svalbard reindeer appeared to conform to the paradigm of island populations made genetically depauperate by genetic drift.     

Epidermal UV-screening of arctic and alpine plants along a latitudinal gradient in Europe

This study reports epidermal UV-transmittance in field-grown leaves of ecotypes of six species at three sites along a latitudinal UV-B gradient from Arctic Svalbard, via southern Norway to the French Alps for the years 1999–2001. Unexpectedly, Arctic populations had just as high epidermal UV-screening as alpine populations from lower latitudes. Dryas octopetala was the only species that significantly increased epidermal screening with increasing natural UV-B. Most species, however, showed clear differences in transmittance between years.Under controlled conditions in a growthroom, no ecotypic differences with respect to epidermal UV-B screening were found in Arctic and alpine ecotypes of Oxyria digyna, either in the absence or presence of UV-B radiation. Furthermore, UV-B transmittance in the absence of UV-B radiation in the growthroom was as low (5–6%) as in field-grown plants, indicating a high constitutive screening. Analysis of UV-B-absorbing phenolic compounds in O. digyna displayed no difference between the French Alps and Svalbard ecotypes, while the S. Norway ecotype contained significantly higher amounts of screening compounds. The qualitative analysis showed that the French Alps ecotype had a different composition of flavonoids compared with the two others, and that the ratio between di- and monohydroxylated flavonoids increased from south to north.     

Contrasting effects of summer and winter warming on body mass explain population dynamics in a food‐limited Arctic herbivore

The cumulative effects of climate warming on herbivore vital rates and population dynamics are hard to predict, given that the expected effects differ between seasons. In the Arctic, warmer summers enhance plant growth which should lead to heavier and more fertile individuals in the autumn. Conversely, warm spells in winter with rainfall (rain‐on‐snow) can cause ‘icing’, restricting access to forage, resulting in starvation, lower survival and fecundity. As body condition is a ‘barometer’ of energy demands relative to energy intake, we explored the causes and consequences of variation in body mass of wild female Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) from 1994 to 2015, a period of marked climate warming. Late winter (April) body mass explained 88% of the between‐year variation in population growth rate, because it strongly influenced reproductive loss, and hence subsequent fecundity (92%), as well as survival (94%) and recruitment (93%). Autumn (October) body mass affected ovulation rates but did not affect fecundity. April body mass showed no long‐term trend (coefficient of variation, CV = 8.8%) and was higher following warm autumn (October) weather, reflecting delays in winter onset, but most strongly, and negatively, related to ‘rain‐on‐snow’ events. October body mass (CV = 2.5%) increased over the study due to higher plant productivity in the increasingly warm summers. Density‐dependent mass change suggested competition for resources in both winter and summer but was less pronounced in recent years, despite an increasing population size. While continued climate warming is expected to increase the carrying capacity of the high Arctic tundra, it is also likely to cause more frequent icing events. Our analyses suggest that these contrasting effects may cause larger seasonal fluctuations in body mass and vital rates. Overall our findings provide an important ‘missing’ mechanistic link in the current understanding of the population biology of a keystone species in a rapidly warming Arctic.     

Effects of warming on annual production and nutrient‐use efficiency of aquatic mosses in a high Arctic lake

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The Arctic Oscillation predicts effects of climate change in two trophic levels in a high-arctic ecosystem

During recent decades there has been a change in the circulation of atmospheric pressure throughout the Northern Hemisphere. These variations are expressed in the recently described Arctic Oscillation (AO), which has shown an upward trend (associated with winter warming in the eastern Arctic) during the last three decades. We analysed a 12‐year time series on growth of Cassiope tetragona (Lapland Cassiope) and a 21‐year time series on abundance of a Svalbard reindeer population. High values of the AO index were associated with reduced plant growth and reindeer population growth rate. The North Atlantic Oscillation index was not able to explain a significant proportion of the variance in either plant growth or reindeer population fluctuations. Thus, the AO index may be a better predictor for ecosystem effects of climate change in certain high‐arctic areas compared to the NAO index.