Adaptive management as a tool to improve the conservation of endemic floras: the case of Sicily, Malta and their satellite islands

The presence of endemic species is among the fundamental criteria for characterizing the biodiversity of a territory. Analyzing species richness, extinction level and distribution drivers is an important preliminary step to set conservation priorities and test environmental policies. This study applied the concept of adaptive management to develop strategies for the conservation of endemic floras by considering, as a case study, Sicily, Malta and their neighboring small islands. Adaptive management can be defined as the systematic acquisition and application of reliable information to improve management over time. The development of adaptive conservation strategies aimed preliminary: (1) to quantify endemic plant diversity; (2) to assess the current IUCN knowledge; (3) to analyze the spatial patterns of species distribution in relation to number of colonized habitats, preferential habitats, altitudinal range, and bedrock; (4) to assess whether Natura 2000 network contributed significantly to increase the overlap between endemic distributional areas and protected surface. Strictly Sicilian endemics were 202 taxa amounting to 7.0 % of the whole native flora (c. 2900 taxa). The current picture of extinction risk is still incomplete because over 50 % of endemics were never assessed or assessed with old IUCN criteria. The spatial range size of endemics depended by 40 % on bedrock, and altitudinal and niche breadth. Habitat type did not influence the range size of endemics. The overlap between endemic distributional areas and protected surface increased from 41.3 to 63.3 % with Natura 2000. Adaptive management needs measurable goals to test the progressive improvement of conservation strategies over time, and the reduction in threatened species may be considered as an indicator of successful conservation outcomes. Feedback plays an important role in the periodic revision of biodiversity assessment, distribution modeling, and environmental management, which are fundamental to predict conservation outcomes in the face of extreme uncertainty. In particular, the exhaustive knowledge of the IUCN status is a primary step to implement adaptive measures of conservation, especially as regards endemic floras that are potentially more vulnerable to large-scale or unpredictable and stochastic threats.     

Examining the extinction risk of specialized folivores: a comparative study of Colobine monkeys

Species extinctions are nonrandom with some taxa appearing to possess traits that increase their extinction risk. In this study, eight predictors of extinction risk were used as independent variables to predict the IUCN category of a subfamily of specialized folivorous primates, the Colobinae. All data were transformed into phylogenetically independent contrasts and were analyzed using bivariate regressions, multiple regression, and a maximum likelihood approach using Akaike's Information Criterion to assess model performance. Once an outlier was removed from the data set, species that devote a smaller proportion of their diet to mature leaf consumption appear to be at a greater risk of extinction. Also, as female body mass increases, so does extinction risk. In contrast, as maximum latitude and the number of habitat types increase, extinction risk appears to decrease. These findings emphasize the importance of examining detailed dietary variation for predicting extinction risk at a relatively fine taxonomic scale and, consequently, may help improve conservation management.     

Hosts of the Plio-Pleistocene past reflect modern-day coral vulnerability

The risk of global extinction of reef-building coral species is increasing. We evaluated extinction risk using a biological trait-based resiliency index that was compared with Caribbean extinction during the Plio-Pleistocene, and with extinction risk determined by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). Through the Plio-Pleistocene, the Caribbean supported more diverse coral assemblages than today and shared considerable overlap with contemporary Indo-Pacific reefs. A clear association was found between extant Plio-Pleistocene coral genera and our positive resilience scores. Regional extinction in the past and vulnerability in the present suggests that Pocillopora, Stylophora and foliose Pavona are among the most susceptible taxa to local and regional isolation. These same taxa were among the most abundant corals in the Caribbean Pliocene. Therefore, a widespread distribution did not equate with immunity to regional extinction. The strong relationship between past and present vulnerability suggests that regional extinction events are trait-based and not merely random episodes. We found several inconsistencies between our data and the IUCN scores, which suggest a need to critically re-examine what constitutes coral vulnerability.     

The Sampled Red List Index for Plants,phase II: ground-truthing specimen-based conservation assessments

The IUCN Sampled Red List Index (SRLI) is a policy response by biodiversity scientists to the need to estimate trends in extinction risk of the world''s diminishing biological diversity. Assessments of plant species for the SRLI project rely predominantly on herbarium specimen data from natural history collections, in the overwhelming absence of accurate population data or detailed distribution maps for the vast majority of plant species. This creates difficulties in re-assessing these species so as to measure genuine changes in conservation status, which must be observed under the same Red List criteria in order to be distinguished from an increase in the knowledge available for that species, and thus re-calculate the SRLI. However, the same specimen data identify precise localities where threatened species have previously been collected and can be used to model species ranges and to target fieldwork in order to test specimen-based range estimates and collect population data for SRLI plant species. Here, we outline a strategy for prioritizing fieldwork efforts in order to apply a wider range of IUCN Red List criteria to assessments of plant species, or any taxa with detailed locality or natural history specimen data, to produce a more robust estimation of the SRLI.     

Redlistr: tools for the IUCN Red Lists of ecosystems and threatened species in R

The International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of ecosystems and Red List of threatened species are global standards for assessing risks of ecosystem collapse and species extinction. However, misconceptions of the Red List assessment process, along with its technically demanding nature, can result in the misapplication of their criteria, leading to inconsistent and potentially unreliable assessments. To address this problem, we developed redlistr, an R package aiding in the production of consistent species and ecosystem Red List assessments. Redlistr's features include methods to calculate 1) area from spatial data, 2) range size metrics, 3) rates of change of distributions or populations, and 4) distribution or population at another time from these rates. A key feature of the package is the systematic approach used to eliminate geometric uncertainty when estimating area of occupancy. Here, we develop two case studies to demonstrate the functionalities of redlistr with typical workflows for both species and ecosystems. Redlistr was developed to be accessible to users with a broad range of experience in programming for spatial and temporal data analysis, and sufficiently flexible to allow users to parameterise functions and select equations to fit their purposes. The package specifically aims to assist researchers and conservation practitioners to conduct robust and transparent risk assessments of ecosystems and species under the IUCN Red List criteria but is also useful for other studies requiring analyses of range size, area change and calculations of rates of change.     

The perils of picky eating: dietary breadth is related to extinction risk in insectivorous bats

Several recent papers evaluate the relationship between ecological characteristics and extinction risk in bats. These studies report that extinction risk is negatively related to geographic range size and positively related to habitat specialization. Here, we evaluate the hypothesis that extinction risk is also related to dietary specialization in insectivorous vespertilionid bats using both traditional and phylogenetically-controlled analysis of variance. We collected dietary data and The World Conservation Union (IUCN) rankings for 44 Australian, European, and North American bat species. Our results indicate that species of conservation concern (IUCN ranking near threatened or above) are more likely to have a specialized diet than are species of least concern. Additional analyses show that dietary breadth is not correlated to geographic range size or wing morphology, characteristics previously found to correlate with extinction risk. Therefore, there is likely a direct relationship between dietary specialization and extinction risk; however, the large variation in dietary breadth within species of least concern suggests that diet alone cannot explain extinction risk. Our results may have important implications for the development of predictive models of extinction risk and for the assignment of extinction risk to insectivorous bat species. Similar analyses should be conducted on additional bat families to assess the generality of this relationship between niche breadth and extinction risk.     

Extinction threat evaluation of endemic fig trees of New Caledonia: Priority assessment for taxonomy and conservation with herbarium collections

This article focuses on the relationship between priority-setting in conservation and in taxonomy. A simple and generally applicable scheme is presented based on prior quantitative extinction threat evaluation. In the main part of the study we describe the assessment of the herbarium voucher collection date time series of 21 endemic fig tree species of Ficus sect. Oreosycea (Moraceae). The fig tree assessment is then compared with the available IUCN Red List data and with the collection information on two other groups of endemic tree radiations in New Caledonia: ebonies of Diospyros sect. Maba (Ebenaceae) and the Iguanura palm lineage (Arecaceae). We find a remarkably low level of extinction threat evident in Ficus but a pronounced need to differentiate between true species rarity and putative rarity of potential taxonomic artifacts. To this end it is proposed how such numerical evaluations can be used to set future priorities for the assessment or validation of the taxonomic and conservation status of taxa. The limitations and implications of the evaluation are discussed and relevant criteria for a meaningful analysis of collection records are listed. Finally, putting our results on woody plants into perspective, we briefly review the general conservation situation and outlook of New Caledonia, acknowledging both its high conservation priority and potential. Abbreviations: Note that different IUCN threat category classifications have been in use during the last decade and that some of the cited categories and their abbreviations have changed (IUCN 1994, 2001).     

Ecological and socio-economic factors affecting extinction risk in parrots

Parrots (Psittaciformes) are among the most threatened bird orders with 28 % (111 of 398) of extant species classified as threatened under IUCN criteria. We confirmed that parrots have a lower Red List Index (higher aggregate extinction risk) than other comparable bird groups, and modeled the factors associated with extinction risk. Our analyses included intrinsic biological, life history and ecological attributes, external anthropogenic threats, and socio-economic variables associated with the countries where the parrot species occur, while we controlled for phylogenetic dependence among species. We found that the likelihood of parrot species being classified as threatened was less for species with larger historical distribution size, but was greater for species with high forest dependency, large body size, long generation time, and greater proportion of the human population living in urban areas in the countries encompassing the parrots’ home ranges. The severity of extinction risk (from vulnerable to critically endangered) was positively related to the per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of the countries of occurrence, endemism to a single country, and lower for species used as pets. A disproportionate number of 16 extinct parrot species were endemic to islands and single countries, and were large bodied, habitat specialists. Agriculture, hunting, trapping, and logging are the most frequent threats to parrots worldwide, with variation in importance among regions. We use multiple methods to rank countries with disproportionately high numbers of threatened parrot species. Our results promote understanding of global and regional factors associated with endangerment in this highly threatened taxonomic group, and will enhance the prioritization of conservation actions.     

Papyrus swamp drainage and the conservation status of their avifauna

Papyrus Cyperus papyrus swamps sustain the livelihoods of millions of people, but threats to this habitat have never been quantified formally. Birds are useful indicators of threats that cannot be measured directly. Using satellite imagery classification and habitat associated modelling, we quantify drainage and present International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments for the eight taxa most closely associated with this habitat. We show that, between 1984–1987 and 1999–2001 the areal extent of papyrus declined by 6.7 % from 1,643 to 1,532 km². Papyrus-specialist avifauna has undergone much greater declines, due in part to fragmentation effects and in part to geographical overlap between areas of highest population densities and areas that have experienced greatest habitat loss. Our assessment does not alter the IUCN Red List status of any full species, but it improves current knowledge of the drivers of their extinction risk. Papyrus gonolek Laniarius mufumbiri should remain at least near threatened, but on the basis of population decline rather than a purported small and decreasing range size, and papyrus yellow warbler Chloropeta gracilirostris should remain vulnerable, but again due to declines rather than on the basis of previous under-estimates of population size. Other species should remain listed as least concern. However, taxonomically, likely specifically, distinct populations of papyrus yellow warbler in Zambia and Kenya are highly threatened and should be listed as endangered and critically endangered respectively. We propose several conservation priorities and discuss means of achieving these in a manner consistent with maintaining the livelihoods of people.     

Where are threatened ferns found? Global conservation priorities for pteridophytes

Recent efforts to improve the representation of plant species included on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species through the IUCN Sampled Red List Index (SRLI) for Plants have led to the assessment of almost 1000 additional species of pteridophytes and lycophytes under IUCN Red List criteria. Species were selected at random from all lineages of pteridophytes and lycophytes and are taxonomically as well as ecologically representative of pteridophyte and lycophyte diversity. 16% of pteridophyte and lycophyte species are globally threatened with extinction and 22% are of elevated conservation concern (threatened or Near Threatened); of species of pteridophytes and lycophytes previously included on the Red List, 54% were considered threatened. Over half of pteridophyte and lycophyte species assessed for the SRLI use estimates of range size; therefore the method used to measure range may affect the Red List category assigned. We evaluated this using two alternative metrics for estimating range, species distribution modelling (SDM) and ecologically suitable habitat (ESH), for 227 species endemic to the Neotropical biogeographic realm. Differences between range estimates were small when ranges were small but increased with increasing range size. For 58 (25.6%) species alternative modelling techniques result in the species meeting the threshold for a different IUCN Red List category from using extent of occurrence. Modelling threatened species distributions also highlights priority areas for conservation in tropical and subtropical montane forests that are the most species-rich habitat for small-range pteridophyte and lycophyte species, but which are now increasingly subject to rapid conversion to agriculture.     

Conservation aspects for chasmophytic species: Phenological behavior and seed strategies of the Central Apennine threatened endemism Moehringia papulosa Bertol

Abstract

Chasmophytic vegetation growing on the cracks of cliffs in the Mediterranean and in the Euro-Siberian phytogeographic regions shows a great regional diversity, with a large number of endemic plant species, many of them endangered and at risk of extinction. Moehringia papulosa is an example of a threatened plant living in this kind of habitat. It is an endemism of the Marche region in central Italy, whose natural populations are considered as critically endangered (CR) under the IUCN criteria and the habitat is protected by the E.U. (Directive 92/43/EEC) with the habitat 8210 “calcareous rocky slopes with chasmophytic vegetation”. The phenology of natural populations was analyzed, seed morphology is described and type and level of seed dormancy were determined. The effects of different collecting dates, localities and the influence of elaiosome on germination responses were also considered in order to establish germination requirements to provide optimal protocols for conservation and restoration programmes. Interpopulation differences on seed morphological features were not found and our results also confirm the fact that removal of the elaiosome stimulates germination. The seeds of this species show a non-deep physiological dormancy. The pretreatments proposed as optimal for germination are as follows: a combination of scarification and gibberellins, and 12 weeks of cold stratification.     

Using Mark-recapture to provide population census data for use in Red Listing of invertebrates: the rare terrestrial snail Prestonella bowkeri as a case study

Invertebrates in general, and terrestrial molluscs in particular, are greatly affected by the current biodiversity extinction crisis, and accurate assessment of these organisms for inclusion in Red Lists is essential for the conservation of these taxa. However, obtaining accurate population counts of molluscs for this purpose can be challenging. Using Prestonella bowkeri, a terrestrial snail up to 23 mm in length and 14 mm in width found in mesic rocky cliff face habitats on the Great Escarpment of southern Africa as an example, we show that the use of Mark-recapture techniques to obtain population census data is appropriate to terrestrial molluscs of this size and larger. While currently listed as vulnerable, our results indicate that there are as many as 4,108 individuals of this species in one population, which suggests that the population size (sensu the IUCN definition) is probably >20,000, and the species could be down-listed and classified as near threatened. However, when considering the problems associated with applying the IUCN Red List criteria to invertebrates, and the very small number of populations and hence area of occupancy of this species, down-listing would be premature.     

Application of the IUCN Red Listing system to setting species targets for conservation planning purposes

Biodiversity targets, or estimates of the quantities of biodiversity features that should be conserved in a region, are fundamental to systematic conservation planning. We propose that targets for species should be based on the quantitative thresholds developed for the Vulnerable category of the IUCN Red List system, thereby avoiding future listings of species in an IUCN Red List threat category or an increase in the extinction risk, or ultimate extinction, of species already listed as threatened. Examples of this approach are presented for case studies from South Africa, including threatened taxa listed under the IUCN Red List criteria of A to D, a species listed as Near Threatened, a species of conservation concern due to its rarity, and one species in need of recovery. The method gives rise to multiple representation targets, an improvement on the often used single representation targets that are inadequate for long term maintenance of biodiversity or the arbitrary multiple representation and percentage targets that are sometimes adopted. Through the implementation of the resulting conservation plan, these targets will ensure that the conservation status of threatened species do not worsen over time by qualifying for higher categories of threat and may actually improve their conservation status by eliminating the threat of habitat loss and stabilizing population declines. The positive attributes ascribed to the IUCN Red List system, and therefore to the species targets arising from this approach, are important when justifying decisions that limit land uses known to be detrimental to biodiversity.     

Global assessment of extinction risk to populations of Sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka

Background

Concern about the decline of wild salmon has attracted the attention of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN). The IUCN applies quantitative criteria to assess risk of extinction and publishes its results on the Red List of Threatened Species. However, the focus is on the species level and thus may fail to show the risk to populations. The IUCN has adapted their criteria to apply to populations but there exist few examples of this type of assessment. We assessed the status of sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka as a model for application of the IUCN population-level assessments and to provide the first global assessment of the status of an anadromous Pacific salmon.

Methods/Principal Findings

We found from demographic data that the sockeye salmon species is not presently at risk of extinction. We identified 98 independent populations with varying levels of risk within the species'' range. Of these, 5 (5%) are already extinct. We analyzed the risk for 62 out of 93 extant populations (67%) and found that 17 of these (27%) are at risk of extinction. The greatest number and concentration of extinct and threatened populations is in the southern part of the North American range, primarily due to overfishing, freshwater habitat loss, dams, hatcheries, and changing ocean conditions.

Conclusions/Significance

Although sockeye salmon are not at risk at the species-level, about one-third of the populations that we analyzed are at risk or already extinct. Without an understanding of risk to biodiversity at the level of populations, the biodiversity loss in salmon would be greatly underrepresented on the Red List. We urge government, conservation organizations, scientists and the public to recognize this limitation of the Red List. We also urge recognition that about one-third of sockeye salmon global population diversity is at risk of extinction or already extinct.     

Assessing Extinction Risk in Small Metapopulations of Golden‐headed Lion Tamarins (Leontopithecus chrysomelas) in Bahia State,Brazil

Golden‐headed lion tamarins (GHLTs; Leontopithecus chrysomelas) are endangered primates endemic to the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, where loss of forest and its connectivity threaten species survival. Understanding the role of habitat availability and configuration on population declines is critical for guiding proactive conservation for this, and other, endangered species. We conducted population viability analysis to assess vulnerability of ten GHLT metapopulations to habitat loss and small population size. Seven metapopulations had a low risk of extirpation (or local extinction) over the next 100 years assuming no further forest loss, and even small populations could persist with immediate protection. Three metapopulations had a moderate/high risk of extirpation, suggesting extinction debt may be evident in parts of the species’ range. When deforestation was assumed to continue at current rates, extirpation risk significantly increased while abundance and genetic diversity decreased for all metapopulations. Extirpation risk was significantly negatively correlated with the size of the largest patch available to metapopulations, underscoring the importance of large habitat patches for species persistence. Finally, we conducted sensitivity analysis using logistic regression, and our results showed that local extinction risk was sensitive to percentage of females breeding, adult female mortality, and dispersal rate and survival; conservation or research programs that target these aspects of the species’ biology/ecology could have a disproportionately important impact on species survival. We stress that efforts to protect populations and tracts of habitat of sufficient size throughout the species’ distribution will be important in the near‐term to protect the species from continuing decline and extinction.     

Effects of habitat size and isolation on species immigration–extinction dynamics and community nestedness in a desert river system

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Bellevalia juliana (Asparagaceae), a new hexaploid species from E Kriti (Greece)

A new species, Bellevalia juliana Bareka, Turland & Kamari (Asparagaceae) is described from E Kriti (Greece) and compared with other related taxa from Greece and the Mediterranean area. It is a member of B. sect. Bellevalia and a karyological study revealed a hexaploid karyotype with 2n = 6x = 24 chromosomes, illustrated here. The conservation status of the new species is assessed as Vulnerable (VU), according to IUCN criteria.     

Model of the assessment of the critical risk of extinction and the priorities of protection of endangered aquatic species at the national level

In the period 1995–2006, the biodiversity of the aquatic habitats in the area of Serbia was explored, with the aim to identify the endangered species of macroalgae, macroinvertebratae and fishes. During the work a data base was formed (Aquatic Ecosystems Diversity in Serbia, AEDSer), containing the data from exploring the biodiversity of the aquatic ecosystems of Serbia since 1860. Based on the data base, classification of the aquatic species was made into categories of endangerment based on IUCN criteria. The following was noted: (1) the global IUCN category assigned to the species often is not identical with the national status of endangerment; and (2) the species that are given a category of endangerment at the national level do not have the same realistic risk of extinction in all their habitats. This remark imposed the need for a model for assessing the critical risk of extinction of the endangered species and determining the priorities of their protection at the national level. Two categories of characters were used to develop the model: the characters that determine the degree of ecological specialisation of the species based on the circumstances of habitat; and the characters suggesting the risk factors from the system: “HIPPO” in the spatial and time dimension. The possibility to apply the model was tested on 10 aquatic species belonging to different categories of endangerment at the national level (macroalgae 2, macroinvertebrates 7, and fishes 1 species). The model based on points determined the level of extinction risk and, that way, the species needing urgent conservation from the same or different categories of endangerment were isolated. The model suggested can contribute to a more efficient defining the conservation priorities.     

Contributo Allo Studio Della Temperatura Delle Infiorescenze Delle Palme E Aracee

Abstract

Prioritization of endemic, threatened species and the habitats where they live is a crucial point of conservation actions, particularly in areas with rich endemic floras. In this study, we have developed a new procedure to define the conservation priorities among endemic plants and habitats by evaluating eight criteria. Five criteria deal with the geographic and ecological range of the evaluated species, whereas the other three refer to threats. After the evaluation of each criterion, we combined the partial scores to obtain a priority index (PI). Finally, we characterized the EU habitat categories of conservation concern on the basis of the average PI value of the plants living in each habitat. We tested the method on a list of 260 endemic plants from a biodiversity hotspot (Sardinia) that had an average PI of 3.66 ± 0.16. Even if the habitat categories that are most rich in endemic plants were rocky habitats, and coastal/halophytic habitats, the most endangered habitat was coastal sand dunes (PI = 6.75 ± 1.15). The method herein presented is complementary with the application of IUCN criteria. This integrated approach is a concrete solution that adapts IUCN criteria and categories to local contexts.     

Automated assessment reveals that the extinction risk of reptiles is widely underestimated across space and phylogeny

The Red List of Threatened Species, published by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), is a crucial tool for conservation decision-making. However, despite substantial effort, numerous species remain unassessed or have insufficient data available to be assigned a Red List extinction risk category. Moreover, the Red Listing process is subject to various sources of uncertainty and bias. The development of robust automated assessment methods could serve as an efficient and highly useful tool to accelerate the assessment process and offer provisional assessments. Here, we aimed to (1) present a machine learning–based automated extinction risk assessment method that can be used on less known species; (2) offer provisional assessments for all reptiles—the only major tetrapod group without a comprehensive Red List assessment; and (3) evaluate potential effects of human decision biases on the outcome of assessments. We use the method presented here to assess 4,369 reptile species that are currently unassessed or classified as Data Deficient by the IUCN. The models used in our predictions were 90% accurate in classifying species as threatened/nonthreatened, and 84% accurate in predicting specific extinction risk categories. Unassessed and Data Deficient reptiles were considerably more likely to be threatened than assessed species, adding to mounting evidence that these species warrant more conservation attention. The overall proportion of threatened species greatly increased when we included our provisional assessments. Assessor identities strongly affected prediction outcomes, suggesting that assessor effects need to be carefully considered in extinction risk assessments. Regions and taxa we identified as likely to be more threatened should be given increased attention in new assessments and conservation planning. Lastly, the method we present here can be easily implemented to help bridge the assessment gap for other less known taxa.

The Red List of Threatened Species, published by the IUCN, is a crucial tool for conservation decision making, but is subject to various sources of uncertainty and bias. Modelling the threat status of all global reptiles identifies increased threat to many groups of reptiles across many regions of the world, beyond those currently recognized; moreover, it highlights the effects of the IUCN assessment procedure on eventual threat categories.