Rising temperatures explain past immigration of the thermophilic oak-inhabiting beetle Coraebus florentinus (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) in south-west Germany

Global warming enables the immigration of species previously absent from a given region. Coraebus florentinus (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) is a beetle with a Mediterranean distribution that has expanded its northern range margin northwards within the last 30 years. It develops in branches and shoots of oak (Quercus spp.) and is considered a pest in Mediterranean countries. By modelling the current spatial distribution of C. florentinus using three independent modelling approaches (generalised linear models, boosted regression trees, maximum entropy modelling) we identified abiotic factors which explain its current spatial distribution (1991–1999) in south-west Germany and reconstructed its immigration into Germany since 1950. All modelling approaches suggest that monthly maximum temperatures determined the range margin of the species in south-west Germany from 1991 to 1999. Occurrence probabilities increased exponentially with mean maximum temperatures higher than 10 °C in March and 22 °C in June. Mean precipitation in May also seems to be important for the species occurrence, particularly in regions where oaks grow on poor sandy soil; however, this generally plays a minor role. All of these environmental conditions are linked to higher reproduction of C. florentinus on oaks in warm and dry habitats, as reported from southern Europe. We show that climatic conditions for the beetle have improved significantly in south-west Germany since 1950, which is most likely the reason for the northward shift of its range margin. Our modelling results suggest a further range expansion of the beetle in Central Europe.     

Variation in leaf nitrogen and phosphorus stoichiometry in the nitrogen-fixing Chinese sea-buckthorn (Hippophae rhamnoides L. subsp. sinensis Rousi) across northern China

Nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) concentrations and N:P ratios in terrestrial plants and their patterns of change along environmental gradients are important traits for plant adaptation to changes. We determined the leaf N and P concentrations of Chinese sea-buckthorn (Hippophae rhamnoides L. subsp. sinensis Rousi), a non-legume species with symbiotic N fixation (SNF), at 37 sites across northern China and explored their geographical patterns in relation to climate and soil factors. (1) The mean leaf N, P, and N:P ratio were 36.5, 2.1 mg g^?1, and 17.6, respectively, higher than the mean values of most shrub species in the region. (2) Leaf N was correlated with soil mineral N in cool areas (mean annual temperature MAT <3 °C) but with temperature in warm areas (MAT >3 °C). The high leaf N and divergent leaf N–soil N relationship suggested the importance of SNF in plant N uptake; SNF increases with temperature and is probably the major N source in warm areas. (3) Leaf P was positively related to mean annual precipitation. Leaf N:P ratio was primarily driven by changes in leaf P. The high leaf P reflected the greater requirements of the N-fixing species for P. Our results represent a major advance in understanding the elemental stoichiometry of non-legume N-fixing plants, indicating high P and N requirements and a shift in N source from SNF to soil as temperature declines. This knowledge will help in assessing the habitat suitability for the species and predicting the species dynamics under environmental changes.     

Cold tolerance of the coconut hispine beetle, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Brontispa longissima</Emphasis> (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) in Japan

The coconut hispine beetle, Brontispa longissima (Gestro), supposedly originated from Papua New Guinea and Indonesia but has recently invaded Southeast and East Asian countries where it has been causing serious damage to Cocos nucifera L. This insect also occurs on the Southwest Islands off Kyushu Island in Japan. To evaluate the potential northward range expansion of this insect in Japan, we investigated its cold tolerance at 0, 5, and 10 °C (egg, larva, pupa, and adult), 13 °C (adult), and 15 °C (egg and hatched larva). At 15 °C, few eggs hatched, and the larvae that hatched died within a few days of hatching. At 13 °C, Ltime₉₅ was estimated to be 23 days for adults, with the most cold-tolerant developmental stage at 10 °C. At all developmental stages, Ltime₉₅ of B. longissima was estimated to be 19 days at 10 °C, 8 days at 5 °C, and 5 days at 0 °C, suggesting the cold tolerance of this beetle is very low. Considering average daily temperatures, it is unlikely that B. longissima can establish itself north of Amami-Oshima Island, located in the far south off the main island of Japan.     

Cold tolerance and invasive potential of the redbay ambrosia beetle (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Xyleborus glabratus</Emphasis>) in the eastern United States

Native Lauraceae (e.g. sassafras, redbay) in the southeastern USA are being severely impacted by laurel wilt disease, which is caused by the pathogen Raffaelea lauricola T. C. Harr., Fraedrich and Aghayeva, and its symbiotic vector, the redbay ambrosia beetle (Xyleborus glabratus Eichhoff). Cold temperatures are currently the only viable limitation to the establishment of X. glabratus in northern populations of sassafras. The observed lower lethal temperature of X. glabratus (? 10.0 °C) is warmer than its supercooling point (? 22.0 °C), indicating the beetle is a freeze intolerant and chill susceptible species. Empirically derived X. glabratus lower lethal temperature thresholds were combined with host distribution and microhabitat-corrected climate data to produce species distribution models for X. glabratus in the eastern USA. Macroclimate data (30-year mean annual minimum temperature) were corrected (? 1.2 °C) to account for thermal buffering afforded to X. glabratus while living inside sassafras trees. Only 0.1% of the current US sassafras spatial extent experiences sufficiently harsh winters (locales where mean annual minimum winter temperatures ≤ ? 6.2 °C for ≥ 12 h) to exclude X. glabratus establishment in our species distribution model. Minimum winter temperatures will likely cause some X. glabratus mortality in ~ 52% of the current spatial extent of sassafras, although current data do not allow a quantification of X. glabratus mortality in this zone. Conversely, ~ 48% of the current spatial extent of sassafras is unlikely to experience sufficiently cold winter temperatures to cause any significant impediment to X. glabratus spread or establishment. A modest climate change scenario (RCP4.5) of + 1.4 °C would result in 91% of the current spatial extent of sassafras in the eastern USA occurring where winter minimum temperatures are unlikely to cause any mortality to X. glabratus.     

The Altitudinal Limit of Beech Woods in the Northern Apennines (Italy). Its Spatial Pattern and Some Thermal Inferences

The spatial pattern of the altitudinal limit of beech woods in the Northern Apennines and its correlation with the Fagus sylvatica thermal requirements were studied. The study area was the whole northern side of the Northern Apennines (latitude 44° N), including a timberline. The pattern was described on a scale of 1:25,000, using digitized phytosociological vegetation maps. The timberline elevation ranges from 1,200 to 1,825 m a.s.l., with the highest range at 1,525 to 1,725 m and a peak (13%) at 1,600–1,625 m. As suggested by the known beech thermal requirements, the following thermal parameters were considered: mean annual temperature, mean of the coldest month (January), mean of the warmest month (July); days with maximum temperatures >10°C and summer mean (June to September). The values were calculated using data for 1951–2002 from six weather stations. The present upper timberline (1,825 m) corresponds to the following: i) mean annual temperature of 4.5°C; ii) coldest month mean temperature of ?2.3°C; iii) summer mean of 11.5°C; iv) warmest month mean temperature of 13°C; v) 139 days with maximum temperatures of 10°C or higher. The mean temperature of the warmest month corresponds to the July mean temperature in maritime mountains, such as the Appalachians and the New Zealand Alps (13°C). The geographical location of the Northern Apennines close to the Mediterranean Sea seems to indicate that such a conclusion is reliable. With reference to the elevation variability of the upper timberline, the multiple regression shows that the annual mean is the best explaining thermal parameter (P?<?0.05). Our thermal data do not take into account the atmospheric phenomena that can affect the temperature lapse rate with altitude, such as the cloudiness of the chain, and site factors, such as wind-exposed topography and snow cover duration, which play a crucial role in the Northern Apennine local climate.     

Alternating temperatures affect life table parameters of Phytoseiulus persimilis, Neoseiulus californicus (Acari: Phytoseiidae) and their prey Tetranychus urticae (Acari: Tetranychidae)

Increasing energy costs force glasshouse growers to switch to energy saving strategies. In the temperature integration approach, considerable daily temperature variations are allowed, which not only have an important influence on plant growth but also on the development rate of arthropods in the crop. Therefore, we examined the influence of two constant temperature regimes (15 °C/15 °C and 20 °C/20 °C) and one alternating temperature regime (20 °C/5 °C, with an average of 15 °C) on life table parameters of Phytoseiulus persimilis and Neoseiulus californicus and their target pest, the two-spotted spider mite Tetranychus urticae at a 16:8 (L:D) h photoperiod and 65 ± 5 % RH. For females of both predatory mites the alternating temperature regime resulted in a 25–30 % shorter developmental time as compared to the corresponding mean constant temperature regime of 15 °C/15 °C. The immature development of female spider mites was prolonged for 7 days at 15 °C/15 °C as compared to 20 °C/5 °C. With a daytime temperature of 20 °C, no differences in lifetime fecundity were observed between a nighttime temperature of 20 and 5 °C for P. persimilis and T. urticae. The two latter species did show a higher lifetime fecundity at 20 °C/5 °C than at 15 °C/15 °C, and their daily fecundity at the alternating regime was about 30 % higher than at the corresponding mean constant temperature. P. persimilis and T. urticae showed no differences in sex ratio between the three temperature regimes, whereas the proportion of N. californicus females at 15 °C/15 °C (54.2 %) was significantly lower than that at 20 °C/5 °C (69.4 %) and 20 °C/20 °C (67.2 %). Intrinsic rates of increase were higher at the alternating temperature than at the corresponding mean constant temperature for both pest and predators. Our results indicate that thermal responses of the studied phytoseiid predators to alternating temperature regimes used in energy saving strategies in glasshouse crops may have consequences for their efficacy in biological control programs.     

Some like it hot! Rapid climate change promotes changes in distribution ranges of Nezara viridula and Nezara antennata in Japan

We compared past and current limits of the distribution range of the southern green stink bug, Nezara viridula (L.) (Heteroptera: Pentatomidae), in central Japan. In the early 1960s, the northern limit of the range was in Wakayama Prefecture and was limited by a +5 °C isothermal line for the mean January temperature. In 2006–2007, a new survey demonstrated that this northern limit had shifted northwards by 85 km (i.e., at a mean rate of 19.0 km per decade). The shift was most likely promoted by milder winter conditions. The mean January to February temperature in the region was 1.03–1.91 °C higher in 1998–2007 than in 1960–1969. The number of cold days (with the mean temperature below +5 °C) also significantly decreased, while the annual lowest temperature significantly increased. Nezara viridula was found mostly close to those locations where (i) the mean January temperature exceeded +5 °C, (ii) the mean number of cold days did not exceed 26 in January to February, and (iii) where the mean annual lowest temperature did not drop below –3.0 °C. The general linear model shows that the mean January temperature and number of cold days are the most important factors controlling the northern limit of distribution of N. viridula. All the climatic data suggest that over the last 45 years, environmental conditions have become more favourable for overwintering of N. viridula at many locations in central Japan. This has probably promoted the northward spread of the species, representing a direct response to climate warming. A sympatrically distributed congeneric, Nezara antennata Scott, seems to respond to the warming by a retreat from the ocean coast towards cooler elevated habitats, which might be a complex response to elevated temperature and interspecific mating with N. viridula. It is suggested that the range changes in both species will continue in response to further climate change.     

Temperature-dependent growth and behavior of juvenile Arctic cod (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Boreogadus saida</Emphasis>) and co-occurring North Pacific gadids

The thermal sensitivity of Arctic fish species is poorly understood, yet such data are a critical component of forecasting and understanding ecosystem impacts of climate change. In this study, we experimentally measured temperature-dependent growth and routine swim activity in the juvenile stage of two Arctic gadids (Arctic cod, Boreogadus saida and saffron cod, Eleginus gracilis) and two North Pacific gadids (walleye pollock, Gadus chalcogrammus and Pacific cod, Gadus macrocephalus) over a 6-week growth period across five temperatures (0, 5, 9, 16 and 20 °C). Arctic cod demonstrated a cold-water, stenothermic response in that there was relatively high growth at 0 °C (0.73 % day^?1), near-maximal growth at 5 °C (1.35 % day^?1) and negative impacts on activity, growth and survival at 16 °C. In contrast, saffron cod demonstrated a warmer-water, eurythermic response, and temperature had a positive effect on growth and condition beyond 16 °C. However, despite these distinct thermal responses, walleye pollock and Pacific cod grew 2–3 times faster than Arctic gadids across a relatively broad temperature range above 5 °C. These results, coupled with possible northward expansion by both Pacific cod and walleye pollock, suggest Arctic cod are highly vulnerable to continued climate change in the Arctic, especially in coastal areas of the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas where temperatures already exceed 14 °C in the summer growth period.     

Climate as a determinant of dung beetle response to native forest replacement by cattle pastures in South America

Anthropogenic disturbance in natural ecosystems reduces the number of species in biological communities and homogenizes their composition across different regions. Climate is one of the main abiotic determinants of species distributions and different factors were proposed as the main climatic drivers. Here we explored the role of regional climate on the local response of dung beetle assemblages to the replacement of native forest by cattle pastures in South America by simultaneously contrasting three climatic hypotheses: energy, seasonality and heterogeneity. We compiled a database by searching published studies comparing dung beetle richness and composition between both native forests and cattle pastures. We calculated the proportional difference in species richness and composition between habitat types. As explanatory variables, we used seven abiotic variables grouped into the three climatic hypotheses. Energy/Productivity: mean annual temperature (°C/year) and total annual precipitation (mm/year). Seasonality: annual thermal amplitude (°C/year), the average coefficient of variation of monthly precipitation and the coefficient of average monthly variation in temperature. Heterogeneity: coefficient of variation of mean annual temperature, coefficient of variation of mean annual precipitation. Using regression analyses and a model selection procedure, we found differences in species richness between native forests and cattle pastures were explained by the coefficient of variation of mean annual precipitation, whereas changes in species composition were explained by total annual precipitation and the coefficient of variation of mean annual precipitation. The response of dung beetle assemblages to livestock grazing in South American forests was associated with precipitation variation. The heterogeneity hypothesis better explained changes in species richness following forest replacement by cattle pastures, while both energy/productivity and heterogeneity hypotheses explained the changes in species composition.     

An empirical predictive model for the flight period of Platypus koryoensis (Coleoptera: Platypodinae)

Between 2007 and 2009, field studies were conducted in four Quercus mongolica Fischer ex Ledebour forests in Korea to develop an empirical degree-day model for the flight period of the ambrosia beetle, Platypus koryoensis (Murayama). The lower developmental threshold temperature was estimated using an iterative method based on field trap catches and temperatures. The pooled proportion of the total number of beetles found in the traps at the end of the experiment was plotted against the accumulated degree-days at selected baseline temperatures, and these plots were fitted by the Weibull function. The baseline temperature with the highest coefficient of determination was considered the lower developmental threshold temperature, and this was estimated to be 5.8 °C. The explanatory power of the model was 89 %. Moreover, the model accurately predicted the time distributions of P. koryoensis flights in 2011 and 2012 at one of the sites. The estimated median flight dates in 2011 and 2012 were 4 days earlier and 5 days later than the corresponding observed flight dates, respectively. The estimated median date of flight advanced progressively during 1970–2010 by a total of 9 days due to an increase in annual mean temperature.     

Seasonal variation of diet and time budget of Eastern hoolock gibbons (Hoolock leuconedys) living in a northern montane forest

Most gibbons dwell in the tropical forests of Southeastern Asia, but eastern hoolock gibbons (Hoolock leuconedys) survive in high montane forest ranging from 1,600 to 2,700 m a.s.l. in Gaoligongshan (>24°30′N), Yunnan, China. To assess the behavioral adaptations of hoolock gibbons to the montane forest, we related temperature and food availability within the habitat to the seasonal behavioral patterns of a family group and a solitary female between August 2010 and September 2011 in Nankang, Gaoligongshan National Nature Reserve. The maximum temperature was 29.2 °C and the minimum temperature was ?0.3 °C during the period. The monthly mean temperature was <10 °C between December and February, making Nankang the coldest gibbon habitat reported so far. Nonfig fruit and fig availability declined to nearly zero in cold months. The family group increased resting and decreased travel and social behaviors when the monthly mean temperature was low. Compared with other gibbon populations, the hoolock gibbons spent proportionally less time feeding on figs and other fruit than other gibbon populations except Nomascus concolor and Symphalangus syndactylus. Only 36 species of plants provided nonfig fruit or figs, which is less than the number of fruit species consumed by any other gibbon population observed during a similar period of time (about 1 year). Hoolock gibbons shifted their diet to leaves and increased feeding time when fruit was not available. We conclude that diet flexibility and an energy-conserving strategy during the cold season when fruit is scarce have enabled the hoolock gibbons to survive in a northern montane forest.     

Insects in a warmer world: ecological, physiological and life-history responses of true bugs (Heteroptera) to climate change

Focusing on the southern green stink bug, Nezara viridula (Pentatomidae), in central Japan the effects of climate change on true bugs (Insecta: Heteroptera) are reviewed. In the early 1960s, the northern edge of the species's distribution was in Wakayama Prefecture (34.1°N) and distribution was limited by the +5°C coldest month (January) mean temperature isothermal line. By 2000, N. viridula was recorded 70 km further north (in Osaka, 34.7°N). Historical climate data were used to reveal possible causes of the northward range expansion. The increase of mean and lowest winter month temperatures by 1–2°C in Osaka from the 1950s to the 1990s improved potential overwintering conditions for N. viridula. This promoted northward range expansion of the species. In Osaka, adult diapause in N. viridula is induced after mid‐September, much later than in other local seed‐feeding heteropterans. This late diapause induction results in late‐season ineffective reproduction: some females start oviposition in autumn when the progeny have no chance of attaining adulthood and surviving winter. Both reproductive adults and the progeny die. A period from mid‐September to early November represents a phenological mismatch: diapause is not yet induced in all adults, but it is already too late to start reproduction. Females that do not start reproduction but enter diapause in September have reduced postdiapause reproductive performance: they live for a shorter period, have a shorter period of oviposition and produce fewer eggs in smaller egg masses compared with females that emerge and enter diapause later in autumn. To some extent, N. viridula remains maladapted to Osaka environmental conditions. Ecological perspectives on establishment in recently colonized areas are discussed. A review of available data suggests that terrestrial and aquatic Heteroptera species respond to climate change by shifting their distribution ranges, changing abundance, phenology, voltinism, physiology, behaviour, and community structure. Expected responses of Heteroptera to further climate warming are discussed under scenarios of slight (<2°C) and substantial (>2°C) temperature increase.     

Relationship between prostate-specific antigen levels and ambient temperature

We examined the association between prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and daily mean ambient temperature on the day of the test in healthy men who had three annual checkups. We investigated 9,694 men who visited a hospital for routine health checkups in 2007, 2008, and 2009. Although the means and medians of ambient temperature for the three years were similar, the mode in 2008 (15.8 °C) was very different from those in 2007 and 2009 (22.4 °C and 23.2 °C). After controlling for age, body mass index, and hematocrit, a multiple regression analysis revealed a U-shaped relationship between ambient temperature and PSA in 2007 and 2009 (P?<?0.001 and P?=?0.004, respectively), but not in 2008 (P?=?0.779). In 2007, PSA was 13.5 % higher at 5 °C and 10.0 % higher at 30 °C than that at 18.4 °C (nadir). In 2009, PSA was 7.3 % higher at 5 °C and 6.8 % at 30 °C compared with the level at 17.7 °C (nadir). In logistic regression analysis, a U-shaped relationship was found for the prevalence of a higher PSA (> 2.5 ng/mL) by ambient temperature, with the lowest likelihood of having a high PSA at 17.8 °C in 2007 (P?=?0.038) and 15.5 °C in 2009 (P?=?0.033). When tested at 30 °C, there was a 57 % excess risk of having a high PSA in 2007 and a 61 % higher risk in 2009 compared with those at each nadir temperature. We found a U-shaped relationship between PSA and ambient temperature with the lowest level of PSA at 15–20 °C.     

Are winter-active species vulnerable to climate warming? A case study with the wintergreen terrestrial orchid,Tipularia discolor

In the eastern United States, winter temperature has been increasing nearly twice as fast as summer temperature, but studies of warming effects on plants have focused on species that are photosynthetically active in summer. The terrestrial orchid Tipularia discolor is leafless in summer and acquires C primarily in winter. The optimum temperature for photosynthesis in T. discolor is higher than the maximum temperature throughout most of its growing season, and therefore growth can be expected to increase with warming. Contrary to this hypothesis, experimental warming negatively affected reproductive fitness (number of flowering stalks, flowers, fruits) and growth (change in leaf area from 2010 to 2012) in T. discolor. Temperature in June–July was critical for flowering, and mean July temperature greater than 29 °C (i.e., 2.5 °C above ambient) eliminated reproduction. Warming of 1.2 °C delayed flowering by an average of 10 days and fruiting by an average of 5 days. Warming of 4.4 °C reduced relative growth rates by about 60 %, which may have been partially caused by the direct effects of temperature on photosynthesis and respiration. Warming indirectly increased vapor pressure deficit (VPD) by 0.2–0.5 kPa, and leaf-to-air VPD over 1.3 kPa restricted stomatal conductance of T. discolor to 10–40 % of maximum conductance. These results highlight the need to account for changes in VPD when estimating temperature responses of plant species under future warming scenarios. Increasing temperature in the future will likely be an important limiting factor to the distribution of T. discolor, especially along the southern edge of its range.     

A simple temperature-based model predicts the upper latitudinal limit of the temperate coral Astrangia poculata

A few hardy ahermatypic scleractinian corals occur in shallow waters well outside of the tropics, but little is known concerning their distribution limits at high latitudes. Using field data on the growth of Astrangia poculata over an annual period near its northern range limit in Rhode Island, USA, we tested the hypothesis that the distribution of this coral is limited by low temperature. A simple model based on satellite sea surface temperature and field growth data at monthly temporal resolution was used to estimate annual net coral growth north and south of the known range limit of A. poculata. Annual net coral growth was the result of new polyp budding above ~10 °C minus polyp loss below ~10 °C, which is caused by a state of torpor that leads to overgrowth by encroaching and settling organisms. The model accurately predicted A. poculata’s range limit around Cape Cod, Massachusetts, predicting no net growth northward as a result of corals’ inability to counteract polyp loss during winter with sufficient polyp budding during summer. The model also indicated that the range limit of A. poculata coincides with a decline in the benefit of associating with symbiotic dinoflagellates (Symbiodinium B2/S. psygmophilum), suggesting that symbiosis may become a liability under colder temperatures. While we cannot exclude the potential role of other coral life history traits or environmental factors in setting A. poculata’s northern range limit, our analysis suggests that low temperature constrains the growth and persistence of adult corals and would preclude coral growth northward of Cape Cod.     

The influence of discharge, photoperiod, and temperature on the reproductive ecology of cyprinids in the Paluxy River, Texas

The distributions and abundances of cyprinids in North America are declining at an alarming rate with almost half of all known species considered imperiled and in need of conservation. Much of this loss in biodiversity is a result of flow regulation and climate change, especially in streams in the southern Great Plains that are prone to large and rapid fluctuations in discharge. The overall objective of this study was to examine the influence of discharge, photoperiod, and temperature on the reproductive ecology of cyprinids in the Paluxy River, Texas. Our results support previous findings in that photoperiod and water temperature were influential in the initiation and termination of the annual reproductive season. Interannual differences in GSI for Cyprinella venusta and Notropis volucellus indicated that reproductive effort in certain cyprinids was directly linked to discharge. In 2010, mean gonadosomatic index values for C. venusta (9.60 %) and N. volucellus (9.15 %) were at least twice that of 2011 (4.61 and 3.14 %, respectively); discharge during the spawning season of 2010 averaged 1,965 cfs, whereas it averaged only 177 cfs in 2011. Indeed, yearly differences in streamflow (i.e., mean annual discharge) can significantly impact the production of ova in a variety of cyprinids, even those non-broadcast-spawning species such as C. venusta. Consequently, we suggest conservation efforts should focus on maintaining natural flow regimes to combat the overwhelming loss of cyprinid diversity, especially as water extraction and climate change continue to threaten the biodiversity of freshwater fishes.     

Metapopulation shift and survival of woodland birds under climate change: will species be able to track?

Climate change has been widely recognized as a key factor driving changes in species distributions. In this study we use a metapopulation model, with a window of suitable climate moving polewards, to explore population shifts and survival of woodland birds under different climate change scenarios and landscape configurations. Extinction vulnerability and expansion ability are predicted for the middle spotted woodpecker Dendrocopus medius and two alternative r‐K strategies under west European climate change scenarios of 1, 2 and 4°C temperature increase per century, corresponding to isotemperature velocities of ca 2, 4 and 8 km yr^?1. The simulated northward expansion of the bird's distribution is typically in the range of only 0–3 km yr^?1, in spite of 10–20 times larger maximum dispersal distances. This is too slow to track the climate change‐driven range contraction of 4 or 8 km yr^?1 in the south resulting in metapopulation extinction. Especially K‐selected (large‐bodied) species are vulnerable in the simulations. With a temperature increase of 4°C per century bird species go extinct within 104–178 yr. We present a simple approximation formula to predict the mean time to metapopulation extinction using 1) the rate of climate change, which determines the speed of range contraction in the south, 2) the size of the distribution range, which serves as a buffer against extinction, and 3) the northward expansion velocity, determined by species traits and landscape properties. Finally, our results indicate that the northward expansion rate is not constant. It will be initially lagged suggesting that recently observed expansion rates might be underestimations of future northward expansion rates.     

Phenology of sexual reproduction in the common coral reef sponge,Carteriospongia foliascens

Understanding processes that contribute to population maintenance is critical to the management and conservation of species. Despite this, very little is currently known about the reproductive biology of Great Barrier Reef (GBR) sponge species. Here, we established reproductive parameters including mode of sexuality and development, seasonality, sex ratios, gametogenesis, reproductive output, and size at sexual maturity for the common phototrophic intertidal sponge, Carteriospongia foliascens, in the central GBR over two reproductive cycles. A population sexual productivity index (PoSPi) integrating key reproductive parameters was formulated to compare population larval supply over time. This study shows that C. foliascens is reproductive all year round, gonochoric and viviparous, with larvae developing asynchronously throughout the mesohyl. The influence of environmental parameters relevant to C. foliascens reproduction [i.e., sea surface temperature (SST), photoperiod, and rainfall] was also examined, and SST was found to have the most significant effect on phenology. C. foliascens reproduction exhibited annual mono-cyclic patterns closely resembling SST fluctuations. Reproductive output was depressed at low SST (<23 °C) and increased at temperatures above 23 °C. Peak sperm release occurred at temperatures above 25 °C, while peak larval release occurred during the annual temperature maxima (>28 °C). A twofold increase in maximum larval production (PoSPi) in C. foliascens was observed in the second reproductive cycle, following a depressed PoSPi in the first cycle. This reduction in PoSPi in the first reproductive cycle was associated with elevated SST and rainfall, coinciding with one of the strongest La Niña events on record.     

Eastern deciduous tree seedlings advance spring phenology in response to experimental warming,but not wetting,treatments

Changing global climate, particularly rising temperatures, has been linked through observations with advanced spring phenology in temperate regions. We experimentally tested if regional climate change predictions of increased temperature and precipitation alter the spring phenology of eastern US tree seedlings. This study reports the results of a 3-year-field experiment designed to study the responses of eastern deciduous tree species planted in a post-harvest environment to a 2 °C increase in temperature and a 20 % increase in precipitation. Species were monitored for timing of germination and leaf out in four treatment combinations (ambient, warmed, irrigated, and warmed + irrigated) on 16 plots located in a recently harvested central Pennsylvania forest. The 2 °C warming advanced day of seed germination by an average of 2 weeks and seedling leaf out by 10 days among all species (both p < 0.001). However, increased precipitation did not result in a significant change in spring phenology. Species responded uniquely to treatments, with germination advancing in three of five species in response to warming and leaf out advancing in six of six species. Southern species projected to expand northward into the study region with rising temperatures did not show responses to warming treatments that would provide them an advantage over current resident species. Timing of germination and leaf out varied among years of the experiment, most likely driven by year-to-year variability in spring temperatures. The climate change experiment highlighted the potential of a moderate 2 °C temperature increase to advance spring phenology of deciduous tree seedlings by up to 2 weeks, with a lack of a phenological response to a 20 % increase in precipitation.     

The effect of temperature on asexual population growth of three species of Naididae (Oligochaeta)

The population growth rates of monospecific cultures of asexually reproducingNais variabilis, N. elinguis andPristina aequiseta were determined under laboratory conditions at 8 °C, 12 °C and 20 °C. Two different agar-based culture media were used to promote bacterial populations as a food for the worms. The exponential growth rate (r) of the worm populations was dependent upon species, temperature and culture medium. Highest r-values recorded were forN. variabilis andP. aequiseta at 20 °C (mean population doubling time about 3 days) and the lowest r-value recorded was forP. aequiseta at 8 °C (mean population doubling time about 22 days). The r-values forN. elinguis were generally lower than expected, possibly because conditions in the experimental cultures were less suitable for this species. Temperature, culture medium and species identity also affected the carrying capacity of the cultures. Carrying capacity increased with increase in temperature over the experimental range.P. aequiseta cultures supported significantly higher carrying capacities than theNais cultures at all temperatures.