Distance-scaled Force Biased Monte Carlo Simulation for Solutions containing a Strongly Interacting Solute

The force-biased extension of the Metropolis Monte Carlo method [1] improves convergence by sampling moves preferentially along the directions of force (and torque) [2]. For solvated systems it is particularly effective [3] when coupled with the preferential sampling scheme [4] that attempts to move solvents near the solute more frequently. However, in recent force-biased simulations of aqueous ionic solutions [5] some of the water molecules in the vicinity of the solute remained essentially stationary. Only significant reduction in the stepsize produced some accepted moves.     

What do we really know about the signalling role of plumage colour in blue tits? A case study of impediments to progress in evolutionary biology

Evolutionary biologists seek to explain the origin and maintenance of phenotypes, and a substantial portion of this research is accomplished by thorough study of individual species. For instance, many researchers study individual species to understand evolution of ornamental traits which appear to be products of sexual selection. I explored our understanding of sexual ornaments in a well‐studied vertebrate species that may serve as a case study for research programs in evolutionary biology. I attempted to located all published papers examining plumage colour and variables related to sexual selection hypotheses in a common European songbird, the blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus). Researchers have estimated over 1200 statistical relationships with plumage colour of blue tits in 52 studies. However, of the approximately 1000 main‐effect relationships from the 48 studies that are candidates for inclusion in this meta‐analysis, more than 400 were reported without details of strength and direction. Circumstantial evidence suggests that an unknown number of other estimated effects remain unpublished. Missing information is a substantial barrier to interpretation of these papers and to meta‐analytic synthesis. Examination and analysis of funnel plots indicated that unpublished effects may be a biased sample of all effects, especially for comparisons of plumage colour to age and individual quality, and possibly also to measures of mate choice. Further, type I error was likely elevated by the large number of statistical comparisons evaluated, the frequent use of iterative model‐building procedures, and a willingness to interpret a wide variety of results as support for a hypothesis. Type I errors were made more problematic because blue tit plumage researchers only rarely have attempted to replicate important findings in their own work or that of others. Replication is essential to drawing robust scientific conclusions, especially in probabilistic systems with moderate to weak effects or a likelihood of bias. Last, researchers studying blue tit plumage have often developed ad hoc explanations for deviations of results from their predictions. Revising hypotheses in light of data is appropriate, but these revised hypotheses were rarely tested with new data. The only highly robust conclusion supported by meta‐analysis is that male blue tits have plumage that reflects more light in the ultraviolet and yellow wavelengths than the plumage of females. Various other effects, including condition‐dependence of plumage colour expression and a tendency for females to adjust the sex ratio of their offspring in response to male colour, remain uncertain. These obstacles to progress in the blue tit plumage literature are likely common in evolutionary biology, and so I recommend changes to incentive structures which may improve progress towards scientific understanding in this discipline.     

Hypothesis Testing Procedures for a Series of Independent Fourfold Tables under Inverse Sampling

This paper considers four summary test statistics, including the one recently proposed by Bennett (1986, Biometrical Journal 28, 859–862), for hypothesis testing of association in a series of independent fourfold tables under inverse sampling. This paper provides a systematic and quantitative evaluation of the small-sample performance for these summary test statistics on the basis of a Monte Carlo simulation. This paper notes that the test statistic developed by Bennett (1986) can be conservative and thereby possibly lose the power when the underlying disease is not rare. This paper also finds that for given a fixed total number of cases in each table, the conditional test statistic is the best in controlling type I error among all test statistics considered here.     

A Group Sequential Method for one Standard Control and more than one Experimental Treatment

Many group-sequential test procedures have been proposed to meet the ethical need for interim analyses. All of these papers, however, focus their discussion on the situation where there are only one standard control and one experimental treatment. In this paper, we consider a trial with one standard control, but with more than one experimental treatment. We have developed a group-sequential test procedure to accommodate any finite number of experimental treatments. To facilitate the practical application of the proposed test procedure, on the basis of Monte Carlo simulation, we have derived the critical values of α-levels equal to 0.01, 0.05 and 0.10 for the number of experimental treatments ranging from 2 to 4 and the number of multiple group sequential analysis ranging from 1 to 10. Comparing with a single non-sequential analysis that has a reasonable power (say, 0.80), we have demonstrated that the application of the proposed test procedure may substantially reduce the required sample size without seriously sacrificing the original power.     

A general method for controlling the genome-wide type I error rate in linkage and association mapping experiments in plants

Control of the genome-wide type I error rate (GWER) is an important issue in association mapping and linkage mapping experiments. For the latter, different approaches, such as permutation procedures or Bonferroni correction, were proposed. The permutation test, however, cannot account for population structure present in most association mapping populations. This can lead to false positive associations. The Bonferroni correction is applicable, but usually on the conservative side, because correlation of tests cannot be exploited. Therefore, a new approach is proposed, which controls the genome-wide error rate, while accounting for population structure. This approach is based on a simulation procedure that is equally applicable in a linkage and an association-mapping context. Using the parameter settings of three real data sets, it is shown that the procedure provides control of the GWER and the generalized genome-wide type I error rate (GWER(k)).     

Confidence limits for drug-induced response rates in carcinogenesis experiments

Animal experiments in chemical carcinogenesis are often analysed by tests for equal proportions in a 2 × 2 table. Since hereby nothing is said about the power of the tests, we propose to describe the outcome of such an experiment by an upper confidence limit of an adjusted difference between the two response rates.     

基于环境DNA-宏条形码技术的水生生态系统入侵生物的早期监测与预警

外来生物入侵是继生境破坏后造成生物多样性丧失的第二大威胁因素, 已对入侵地的生态安全、经济和社会发展及人类健康等造成严重负面影响, 成为21世纪五大全球性环境问题之一。作为水产养殖、航运和水生宠物交易大国, 我国水生生态系统的生物入侵问题尤为严重。研究表明, 系统地构建并应用早期监测预警技术是防控水生生态系统生物入侵最有效的途径。和陆生生物相比, 水生生物群落的物种繁多、群落结构复杂、生物形体微小且在入侵初期群体规模极小、隐匿于水下、可用于物种鉴定的外部形态缺乏, 使得在水生生态系统中构建并应用早期监测和预警体系在技术层面更具挑战。随着高通量测序技术的快速发展, 环境DNA-宏条形码技术成为构建水生生态系统入侵生物早期监测与预警技术的首选。本文主要综述了基于环境DNA-宏条形码技术的水生生态系统入侵生物的早期监测与预警技术方法; 解析了环境DNA-宏条形码监测系统的应用现状、技术优势; 着重探讨了影响监测结果准确性的I型和II型错误及其产生原因, 并为避免两类错误提供了可行的优化/改进方案; 最后对该方法在水生入侵生物监测中的应用前景进行了展望。     

Chromosomal assignment of seventeen porcine microsatellites and genes by use of a somatic cell hybrid mapping panel

Swine-specific sequence tagged (microsatellite) sites, STS and STMS, were assigned chromosomally by polymerase chain reaction analysis of a somatic cell hybrid panel. This study confirms the localization from genetic mapping of seven anonymous microsatellites and the genes ANPEP, ATP2, CGA, DAGK, FSHB, IFNG, IGF1, IL1B and SPP1. New assignment for the gene BNP1 to chromosome 6 is reported. The confirmed and the new assignments extend the information of the previously established linkage maps and provide framework loci on which to order additional informative markers.     

Continuous fractional component Monte Carlo simulations of high-density adsorption in metal–organic frameworks

The continuous fractional component Monte Carlo method, which was designed to overcome difficulties with insertions and deletions of molecules, is modified to include configurational bias Monte Carlo methods and is further extended to binary systems. The modified method is shown to correctly predict adsorption of Ar in silicalite, Xe and Kr in HKUST-1, and enantiomers in a homochiral metal–organic framework. The modified method is also found to be approximately an order of magnitude more efficient in inserting and deleting molecules than traditional configurational bias grand canonical Monte Carlo simulations in dense systems.     

Testing the Equality of Dependent Variances

The likelihood ratio test for testing equality of vgE;2 correlated variables is developed. In general, evaluation of the test statistic involves the iterative optimization of a likelihood function with 1 + v(v – 1)/2 parameters. The explicit form of the test statistic is derived in the bivariate case, and an iterative algorithm for determining the maximum likelihood estimates is suggested. A limited Monte Carlo study determines the behavior of the proposed procedure under the null hypothesis and variety of parameter values.     

Mathematical model of glucose–insulin homeostasis in healthy rats

According to the World Health Organization there are over 220 million people in the world with diabetes and 3.4 million people died in 2004 as a consequence of this pathology. Development of an artificial pancreas would allow to restore control of blood glucose by coupling an infusion pump to a continuous glucose sensor in the blood. The design of such a device requires the development and application of mathematical models which represent the gluco-regulatory system. Models developed by other research groups describe very well the gluco-regulatory system but have a large number of mathematical equations and require complex methodologies for the estimation of its parameters. In this work we propose a mathematical model to study the homeostasis of glucose and insulin in healthy rats. The proposed model consists of three differential equations and 8 parameters that describe the variation of: blood glucose concentration, blood insulin concentration and amount of glucose in the intestine. All parameters were obtained by setting functions to the values of glucose and insulin in blood obtained after oral glucose administration. In vivo and in silico validations were performed. Additionally, a qualitative analysis has been done to verify the aforementioned model. We have shown that this model has a single, biologically consistent equilibrium point. This model is a first step in the development of a mathematical model for the type I diabetic rat.