Gender differences in immune reconstitution: a multicentric cohort analysis in sub-Saharan Africa

Background

In sub-Saharan Africa, men living with HIV often start ART at more advanced stages of disease and have higher early mortality than women. We investigated gender difference in long-term immune reconstitution.

Methods/Principal Findings

Antiretroviral-naïve adults who received ART for at least 9 months in four HIV programs in sub-Saharan Africa were included. Multivariate mixed linear models were used to examine gender differences in immune reconstitution on first line ART.A total of 21,708 patients (68% women) contributed to 61,912 person-years of follow-up. At ART start,. Median CD4 at ART were 149 [IQR 85–206] for women and 125 cells/µL [IQR 63–187] for men. After the first year on ART, immune recovery was higher in women than in men, and gender-based differences increased by 20 CD4 cells/µL per year on average (95% CI 16–23; P<0.001). Up to 6 years after ART start, patients with low initial CD4 levels experienced similar gains compared to patients with high initial levels, including those with CD4>250cells/µL (difference between patients with <50 cells/µL and those with >250 was 284 cells/µL; 95% CI 272–296; LR test for interaction with time p = 0.63). Among patients with initial CD4 count of 150–200 cells/µL, women reached 500 CD4 cells after 2.4 years on ART (95% CI 2.4–2.5) and men after 4.5 years (95% CI 4.1–4.8) of ART use.

Conclusion

Women achieved better long-term immune response to ART, reaching CD4 level associated with lower risks of AIDS related morbidity and mortality quicker than men.     

Gender difference in 2-year mortality and immunological response to ART in an HIV-infected Chinese population, 2006-2008

Background

Since it was initiated in 2002, the China Free Antiretroviral Treatment (ART) Program has been progressing from an emergency response to a standardized treatment and care system. As of December 31, 2009, a total of 81,880 patients in 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and special municipalities received free ART. Gender differences, however, in mortality and immunological response to ART in this cohort have never been described.

Objective

To understand whether women and men who enrolled in the China National Free ART Program responded equally well to the treatment.

Methods

A retrospective analysis of the national free ART databases from June 2006–December 2008 was performed. HIV-infected subjects who were 18 years or older, ART naïve at baseline, and on a 3TC regimen enrolled in the program from June 1 to December 31, 2006, were included in this study, then followed up to 2 years.

Results

Among 3457 enrolled subjects who met the inclusion criteria, 59.2% were male and 40.8% female. The majority of the subjects were 19–44 years old (77%) and married (72%). Over the full 24 months of follow-up, the mortality rate was 19.0% in males and 11.4% in females (p = 0.0014). Males on therapy for 3–24 months were more likely to die than females (HR = 1.46, 95% CI: 1.04–2.06, p = 0.0307) after adjusting for baseline characteristics. Compared to men, women had higher CD4+ counts over time after initiating ART (p<0.0001).

Conclusions

Our study showed that women had an overall lower mortality and higher CD4+ counts than men in response to ART treatment, which may be attributed to adherence, biological factors, social, cultural and economic reasons. Further study is needed to explore these factors that might contribute to the gender differences in mortality and immunological response to ART.     

Quality of Life Outcomes of Antiretroviral Treatment for HIV/AIDS Patients in Vietnam

Objective

This study assessed health-related quality of life (HRQOL) and its related factors in HIV/AIDS patients taking antiretroviral treatment (ART) in Vietnam.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was conducted with 1016 patients (36.2% women, mean age = 35.4) in three epicenters of Vietnam, including Hanoi, Hai Phong, and Ho Chi Minh City. HRQOL was assessed using the Vietnamese version of the WHOQOL-HIV BREF. Factor analysis classified measure items into six HRQOL dimensions, namely Physical, Morbidity, Social, Spirituality, Performance, and Environment. Tobit censored regression models were applied to determine associations of patient’s characteristics and HRQOL domain scores.

Results

Internal consistency reliability of the six domains ranged from 0.69 to 0.89. The WHOQOL-HIV BREF had a good discriminative validity with patient’s disease stages, CD4 cell counts, and duration of ART. In a band score of (4, 20), six domains were moderate; “Environment” had the highest score (13.8±2.8), and “Social” had the lowest score (11.2±3.3). Worse HRQOL were observed in patients at provincial and district clinics. Those patients who were male, had higher educational attainment, and are employed, reported better HRQOL. In reduced regression models, poorer HRQOL was found in patients who had advanced HIV infection and had CD4 cell count <200 cells/mL. Patients reported significantly poorer Physical and Social in the 1^st year ART, but moderately better Performance, Morbidity, Spirituality, and Environment from the 2^nd year ART, compared to those not-yet-on ART.

Conclusion

Strengthening the quality of ART services at the provincial and district levels, gender-specific impact mitigation, and early treatment supports are recommended for further expansion of ART services in Vietnam. Regular assessments of HRQOL may provide important indicators for monitoring and evaluating HIV/AIDS services.     

Association of pre-treatment nutritional status with change in CD4 count after antiretroviral therapy at 6, 12, and 24 months in Rwandan women

Background

Body mass index (BMI) independently predicts mortality in studies of HIV infected patients initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART). We hypothesized that poorer nutritional status would be associated with smaller gains in CD4 count in Rwandan women initiating ART.

Methods and Findings

The Rwandan Women''s Interassociation Study and Assessment, enrolled 710 ART-naïve HIV-positive and 226 HIV-negative women in 2005 with follow-up every 6 months. The outcome assessed in this study was change in CD4 count at 6, 12, and 24 months after ART initiation. Nutritional status measures taken prior to ART initiation were BMI; height adjusted fat free mass (FFMI); height adjusted fat mass (FMI), and sum of skinfold measurements. 475 women initiated ART. Mean (within 6 months) pre-ART CD4 count was 216 cells/µL. Prior to ART initiation, the mean (±SD) BMI was 21.6 (±3.78) kg/m² (18.3% malnourished with BMI<18.5); and among women for whom the following were measured, mean FFMI was 17.10 (±1.76) kg/m²; FMI 4.7 (±3.5) kg/m² and sum of skinfold measurements 4.9 (±2.7) cm. FFMI was significantly associated with a smaller change in CD4 count at 6 months in univariate analysis (−6.7 cells/uL per kg/m², p  = 0.03) only. In multivariate analysis after adjustment for covariates, no nutritional variable was associated with change in CD4 count at any follow up visit.

Conclusion

In this cohort of African women initiating ART, no measure of malnutrition prior to ART was consistently associated with change in CD4 count at 6, 12, and 24 months of follow up, suggesting that poorer pre-treatment nutritional status does not prevent an excellent response to ART.     

Adherence to highly active antiretroviral treatment in HIV-infected Rwandan women

Background

Scale-up of highly active antiretroviral treatment therapy (HAART) programs in Rwanda has been highly successful but data on adherence is limited. We examined HAART adherence in a large cohort of HIV+ Rwandan women.

Methods

The Rwanda Women''s Interassociation Study Assessment (RWISA) was a prospective cohort study that assessed effectiveness and toxicity of ART. We analyzed patient data 12±3 months after HAART initiation to determine adherence rates in HIV+ women who had initiated HAART.

Results

Of the 710 HIV+ women at baseline, 490 (87.2%) initiated HAART. Of these, 6 (1.2%) died within 12 months, 15 others (3.0%) discontinued the study and 80 others (19.0%) remained in RWISA but did not have a post-HAART initiation visit that fell within the 12±3 month time points leaving 389 subjects for analysis. Of these 389, 15 women stopped their medications without being advised to do so by their doctors. Of the remaining 374 persons who reported current HAART use 354 completed the adherence assessment. All women, 354/354, reported 100% adherence to HAART at the post-HAART visit. The high self-reported level of adherence is supported by changes in laboratory measures that are influenced by HAART. The median (interquartile range) CD4 cell count measured within 6 months prior to HAART initiation was 185 (128, 253) compared to 264 (182, 380) cells/mm³ at the post-HAART visit. Similarly, the median (interquartile range) MCV within 6 months prior to HAART initiation was 88 (83, 93) fL compared to 104 (98, 110) fL at the 12±3 month visit.

Conclusion

Self-reported adherence to antiretroviral treatment 12±3 months after initiating therapy was 100% in this cohort of HIV-infected Rwandan women. Future studies should explore country-specific factors that may be contributing to high levels of adherence to HAART in this population.     

Scaling up the 2010 World Health Organization HIV Treatment Guidelines in resource-limited settings: a model-based analysis

Background

The new 2010 World Health Organization (WHO) HIV treatment guidelines recommend earlier antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation (CD4<350 cells/µl instead of CD4<200 cells/µl), multiple sequential ART regimens, and replacement of first-line stavudine with tenofovir. This paper considers what to do first in resource-limited settings where immediate implementation of all of the WHO recommendations is not feasible.

Methods and Findings

We use a mathematical model and local input data to project clinical and economic outcomes in a South African HIV-infected cohort (mean age = 32.8 y, mean CD4 = 375/µl). For the reference strategy, we assume that all patients initiate stavudine-based ART with WHO stage III/IV disease and receive one line of ART (stavudine/WHO/one-line). We rank—in survival, cost-effectiveness, and equity terms—all 12 possible combinations of the following: (1) stavudine replacement with tenofovir, (2) ART initiation (by WHO stage, CD4<200 cells/µl, or CD4<350 cells/µl), and (3) one or two regimens, or lines, of available ART. Projected life expectancy for the reference strategy is 99.0 mo. Considering each of the guideline components separately, 5-y survival is maximized with ART initiation at CD4<350 cells/µl (stavudine/<350/µl/one-line, 87% survival) compared with stavudine/WHO/two-lines (66%) and tenofovir/WHO/one-line (66%). The greatest life expectancies are achieved via the following stepwise programmatic additions: stavudine/<350/µl/one-line (124.3 mo), stavudine/<350/µl/two-lines (177.6 mo), and tenofovir/<350/µl/two-lines (193.6 mo). Three program combinations are economically efficient: stavudine/<350/µl/one-line (cost-effectiveness ratio, US$610/years of life saved [YLS]), tenofovir/<350/µl/one-line (US$1,140/YLS), and tenofovir/<350/µl/two-lines (US$2,370/YLS).

Conclusions

In settings where immediate implementation of all of the new WHO treatment guidelines is not feasible, ART initiation at CD4<350 cells/µl provides the greatest short- and long-term survival advantage and is highly cost-effective. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Incidence and predictors of immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome in a rural area of Mozambique

Background

There is limited data on the epidemiology of Immune Reconstitution Inflammatory Syndrome (IRIS) in rural sub-Saharan Africa. A prospective observational cohort study was conducted to assess the incidence, clinical characteristics, outcome and predictors of IRIS in rural Mozambique.

Methods

One hundred and thirty-six consecutive antiretroviral treatment (ART)-naïve HIV-1-infected patients initiating ART at the Manhiça district hospital were prospectively followed for development of IRIS over 16 months. Survival analysis by Cox regression was performed to identify pre-ART predictors of IRIS development.

Results

Thirty-six patients developed IRIS [26.5%, incidence rate 3.1 cases/100 persons-month of ART (95% CI 2.2–4.3)]. Median time to IRIS onset was 62 days from ART initiation (IQR 35.5–93.5). Twenty-five cases (69.4%) were “unmasking”, 10 (27.8%) were “paradoxical”, and 1 (2.8%) developed a paradoxical worsening followed by the unmasking of another condition. Systemic OI (OI-IRIS) accounted for 47% (17/36) of IRIS cases, predominantly of KS (8 cases) and TB (6 cases) IRIS. Mucocutaneous IRIS manifestations (MC-IRIS) accounted for 53% (19/36) of IRIS events, mostly tinea (9 cases) and herpes simplex infection (3 cases). Multivariate analysis identified two independent predictors of IRIS development: pre-ART CD4 count <50 cells/µl (HR 2.3, 95% CI 1.19–4.44, p = 0.01) and body mass index (BMI) <18.5 (HR 2.15, 95% CI 1.07–4.3, p = 0.03). The pre-cART proportion of activated T-cells, as well as the immunologic and virologic response to ART were not associated with IRIS development. All patients continued on ART, 7 (19.4%) required hospitalization and there were 3 deaths (8.3%) attributable to IRIS.

Conclusions

IRIS is common in patients initiating ART in rural Mozambique. Pre-ART CD4 counts and BMI can easily be assessed at ART initiation in rural sub-Saharan Africa to identify patients at high risk of IRIS, for whom close supervision is warranted.     

Randomized trial of time-limited interruptions of protease inhibitor-based antiretroviral therapy (ART) vs. continuous therapy for HIV-1 infection

Background

The clinical outcomes of short interruptions of PI-based ART regimens remains undefined.

Methods

A 2-arm non-inferiority trial was conducted on 53 HIV-1 infected South African participants with viral load <50 copies/ml and CD4 T cell count >450 cells/µl on stavudine (or zidovudine), lamivudine and lopinavir/ritonavir. Subjects were randomized to a) sequential 2, 4 and 8-week ART interruptions or b) continuous ART (cART). Primary analysis was based on the proportion of CD4 count >350 cells(c)/ml over 72 weeks. Adherence, HIV-1 drug resistance, and CD4 count rise over time were analyzed as secondary endpoints.

Results

The proportions of CD4 counts >350 cells/µl were 82.12% for the intermittent arm and 93.73 for the cART arm; the difference of 11.95% was above the defined 10% threshold for non-inferiority (upper limit of 97.5% CI, 24.1%; 2-sided CI: −0.16, 23.1). No clinically significant differences in opportunistic infections, adverse events, adherence or viral resistance were noted; after randomization, long-term CD4 rise was observed only in the cART arm.

Conclusion

We are unable to conclude that short PI-based ART interruptions are non-inferior to cART in retention of immune reconstitution; however, short interruptions did not lead to a greater rate of resistance mutations or adverse events than cART suggesting that this regimen may be more forgiving than NNRTIs if interruptions in therapy occur.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00100646","term_id":"NCT00100646"}}NCT00100646     

WHO 2010 guidelines for prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission in Zimbabwe: modeling clinical outcomes in infants and mothers

Background

The Zimbabwean national prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT) program provided primarily single-dose nevirapine (sdNVP) from 2002–2009 and is currently replacing sdNVP with more effective antiretroviral (ARV) regimens.

Methods

Published HIV and PMTCT models, with local trial and programmatic data, were used to simulate a cohort of HIV-infected, pregnant/breastfeeding women in Zimbabwe (mean age 24.0 years, mean CD4 451 cells/µL). We compared five PMTCT regimens at a fixed level of PMTCT medication uptake: 1) no antenatal ARVs (comparator); 2) sdNVP; 3) WHO 2010 guidelines using “Option A” (zidovudine during pregnancy/infant NVP during breastfeeding for women without advanced HIV disease; lifelong 3-drug antiretroviral therapy (ART) for women with advanced disease); 4) WHO “Option B” (ART during pregnancy/breastfeeding without advanced disease; lifelong ART with advanced disease); and 5) “Option B+:” lifelong ART for all pregnant/breastfeeding, HIV-infected women. Pediatric (4–6 week and 18-month infection risk, 2-year survival) and maternal (2- and 5-year survival, life expectancy from delivery) outcomes were projected.

Results

Eighteen-month pediatric infection risks ranged from 25.8% (no antenatal ARVs) to 10.9% (Options B/B+). Although maternal short-term outcomes (2- and 5-year survival) varied only slightly by regimen, maternal life expectancy was reduced after receipt of sdNVP (13.8 years) or Option B (13.9 years) compared to no antenatal ARVs (14.0 years), Option A (14.0 years), or Option B+ (14.5 years).

Conclusions

Replacement of sdNVP with currently recommended regimens for PMTCT (WHO Options A, B, or B+) is necessary to reduce infant HIV infection risk in Zimbabwe. The planned transition to Option A may also improve both pediatric and maternal outcomes.     

HIV-infected children in rural Zambia achieve good immunologic and virologic outcomes two years after initiating antiretroviral therapy

Background

Many HIV-infected children in sub-Saharan Africa reside in rural areas, yet most research on treatment outcomes has been conducted in urban centers. Rural clinics and residents may face unique barriers to care and treatment.

Methods

A prospective cohort study of HIV-infected children was conducted between September 2007 and September 2010 at the rural HIV clinic in Macha, Zambia. HIV-infected children younger than 16 years of age at study enrollment who received antiretroviral therapy (ART) during the study were eligible. Treatment outcomes during the first two years of ART, including mortality, immunologic status, and virologic suppression, were assessed and risk factors for mortality and virologic suppression were evaluated.

Results

A total of 69 children entered the study receiving ART and 198 initiated ART after study enrollment. The cumulative probabilities of death among children starting ART after study enrollment were 9.0% and 14.4% at 6 and 24 months after ART initiation. Younger age, higher viral load, lower CD4+ T-cell percentage and lower weight-for-age z-scores at ART initiation were associated with higher risk of mortality. The mean CD4⁺ T-cell percentage increased from 16.3% at treatment initiation to 29.3% and 35.0% at 6 and 24 months. The proportion of children with undetectable viral load increased to 88.5% and 77.8% at 6 and 24 months. Children with longer travel times (≥5 hours) and those taking nevirapine at ART initiation, as well as children who were non-adherent, were less likely to achieve virologic suppression after 6 months of ART.

Conclusions

HIV-infected children receiving treatment in a rural clinic experienced sustained immunologic and virologic improvements. Children with longer travel times were less likely to achieve virologic suppression, supporting the need for decentralized models of ART delivery.     

Evaluation of portable point-of-care CD4 counter with high sensitivity for detecting patients eligible for antiretroviral therapy

Background

Accurate, inexpensive point-of-care CD4+ T cell testing technologies are needed that can deliver CD4+ T cell results at lower level health centers or community outreach voluntary counseling and testing. We sought to evaluate a point-of-care CD4+ T cell counter, the Pima CD4 Test System, a portable, battery-operated bench-top instrument that is designed to use finger stick blood samples suitable for field use in conjunction with rapid HIV testing.

Methods

Duplicate measurements were performed on both capillary and venous samples using Pima CD4 analyzers, compared to the BD FACSCalibur (reference method). The mean bias was estimated by paired Student''s t-test. Bland Altman plots were used to assess agreement.

Results

206 participants were enrolled with a median CD4 count of 396 (range; 18–1500). The finger stick PIMA had a mean bias of −66.3 cells/µL (95%CI −83.4−49.2, P<0.001) compared to the FACSCalibur; the bias was smaller at lower CD4 counts (0–250 cells/µL) with a mean bias of −10.8 (95%CI −27.3−+5.6, P = 0.198), and much greater at higher CD4 cell counts (>500 cells/µL) with a mean bias of −120.6 (95%CI −162.8, −78.4, P<0.001). The sensitivity (95%CI) of the Pima CD4 analyzer was 96.3% (79.1–99.8%) for a <250 cells/ul cut-off with a negative predictive value of 99.2% (95.1–99.9%).

Conclusions

The Pima CD4 finger stick test is an easy-to-use, portable, relatively fast device to test CD4+ T cell counts in the field. Issues of negatively-biased CD4 cell counts especially at higher absolute numbers will limit its utility for longitudinal immunologic response to ART. The high sensitivity and negative predictive value of the test makes it an attractive option for field use to identify patients eligible for ART, thus potentially reducing delays in linkage to care and ART initiation.     

Pregnant women's access to PMTCT and ART services in South Africa and implications for universal antiretroviral treatment

Objectives

We describe pregnant womens'' access to PMTCT and HAART services and associated birth outcomes in South Africa.

Methods

Women recuperating in postnatal wards of a referral hospital participated in an evaluation during February–May 2010 during which their maternity records were examined to describe their access to VCT, CD4 Counts, dual ART or HAART during pregnancy.

Results

Of the 1609 women who participated in this evaluation, 39% (95%CI36.7–41.5%) tested HIV-positive during their pregnancy. Of the HIV-positive women 2.9% did not have a CD4 count done and an additional 31.3% did not receive their CD4 results. The majority (96.8%) of the HIV-positive women commenced dual ART at their first antenatal visit independent of their CD4 result. During February–May 2010, 48.0% of the women who had a CD4 result were eligible for HAART (CD4<200 cells/mm³) and 29.1% of these initiated HAART during pregnancy. Under the current South African PMTCT guidelines 71.1% (95%CI66.4–75.4%) of HIV positive pregnant women could be eligible for HAART (CD4<350 cells/mm³). There were significantly more preterm births among HIV-positive women (p = 0.01) and women who received HAART were no more at risk of preterm deliveries (AOR 0.73;95%CI0.39–1.36;p = 0.2) as compared to women who received dual ART. Nine (2.4%; 95%CI1.1–4.5%) HIV exposed infants were confirmed HIV infected at birth. The in-utero transmission rate was highest among women who required HAART but did not initiate treatment (8.5%) compared to 2.7% and 0.4% among women who received HAART and women who were not eligible for HAART and received PMTCT prophylaxis respectively.

Conclusion

In this urban South African community the antenatal HIV prevalence remains high (39%) and timeous access to CD4 results during pregnancy is limited. Under the current South African guidelines, and assuming that access to CD4 results has improved, more than 70% of HIV-positive pregnant women in this community would be requiring HAART.     

Evaluation of three sampling methods to monitor outcomes of antiretroviral treatment programmes in low- and middle-income countries

Background

Retention of patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) over time is a proxy for quality of care and an outcome indicator to monitor ART programs. Using existing databases (Antiretroviral in Lower Income Countries of the International Databases to Evaluate AIDS and Médecins Sans Frontières), we evaluated three sampling approaches to simplify the generation of outcome indicators.

Methods and Findings

We used individual patient data from 27 ART sites and included 27,201 ART-naive adults (≥15 years) who initiated ART in 2005. For each site, we generated two outcome indicators at 12 months, retention on ART and proportion of patients lost to follow-up (LFU), first using all patient data and then within a smaller group of patients selected using three sampling methods (random, systematic and consecutive sampling). For each method and each site, 500 samples were generated, and the average result was compared with the unsampled value. The 95% sampling distribution (SD) was expressed as the 2.5^th and 97.5^th percentile values from the 500 samples. Overall, retention on ART was 76.5% (range 58.9–88.6) and the proportion of patients LFU, 13.5% (range 0.8–31.9). Estimates of retention from sampling (n = 5696) were 76.5% (SD 75.4–77.7) for random, 76.5% (75.3–77.5) for systematic and 76.0% (74.1–78.2) for the consecutive method. Estimates for the proportion of patients LFU were 13.5% (12.6–14.5), 13.5% (12.6–14.3) and 14.0% (12.5–15.5), respectively. With consecutive sampling, 50% of sites had SD within ±5% of the unsampled site value.

Conclusions

Our results suggest that random, systematic or consecutive sampling methods are feasible for monitoring ART indicators at national level. However, sampling may not produce precise estimates in some sites.     

Adjusting mortality for loss to follow-up: analysis of five ART programmes in sub-Saharan Africa

Background

Evaluation of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programmes in sub-Saharan Africa is difficult because many patients are lost to follow-up. Outcomes in these patients are generally unknown but studies tracing patients have shown mortality to be high. We adjusted programme-level mortality in the first year of antiretroviral treatment (ART) for excess mortality in patients lost to follow-up.

Methods and Findings

Treatment-naïve patients starting combination ART in five programmes in Côte d''Ivoire, Kenya, Malawi and South Africa were eligible. Patients whose last visit was at least nine months before the closure of the database were considered lost to follow-up. We filled missing survival times in these patients by multiple imputation, using estimates of mortality from studies that traced patients lost to follow-up. Data were analyzed using Weibull models, adjusting for age, sex, ART regimen, CD4 cell count, clinical stage and treatment programme. A total of 15,915 HIV-infected patients (median CD4 cell count 110 cells/µL, median age 35 years, 68% female) were included; 1,001 (6.3%) were known to have died and 1,285 (14.3%) were lost to follow-up in the first year of ART. Crude estimates of mortality at one year ranged from 5.7% (95% CI 4.9–6.5%) to 10.9% (9.6–12.4%) across the five programmes. Estimated mortality hazard ratios comparing patients lost to follow-up with those remaining in care ranged from 6 to 23. Adjusted estimates based on these hazard ratios ranged from 10.2% (8.9–11.6%) to 16.9% (15.0–19.1%), with relative increases in mortality ranging from 27% to 73% across programmes.

Conclusions

Naïve survival analysis ignoring excess mortality in patients lost to follow-up may greatly underestimate overall mortality, and bias ART programme evaluations. Adjusted mortality estimates can be obtained based on excess mortality rates in patients lost to follow-up.     

Validating a shortened depression scale (10 item CES-D) among HIV-positive people in British Columbia, Canada

Objective

To establish the reliability and validity of a shortened (10-item) depression scale used among HIV-positive patients enrolled in the Drug Treatment Program in British Columbia, Canada.

Methods

The 10-item CES-D (Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale) was examined among 563 participants who initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART) between August 1, 1996 and June 30, 2002. Internal consistency of the scale was measured by Cronbach’s alpha. Using the original CES-D 20 as primary criteria, comparisons were made using the Kappa statistic. Predictive accuracy of CES-D 10 was assessed by calculating sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values and negative predictive values. Factor analysis was also performed to determine if the CES-D 10 contained the same factors of positive and negative affect found in the original development of the CES-D.

Results

The correlation between the original and the shortened scale is very high (Spearman correlation coefficient  = 0.97 (P<0.001). Internal consistency reliability coefficients of the CES-D 10 were satisfactory (Cronbach α = 0.88). The CES-D 10 showed comparable accuracy to the original CES-D 20 in classifying participants with depressive symptoms (Kappa = 0.82, P<0.001). Sensitivity of CES-D 10 was 91%; specificity was 92%; and positive predictive value was 92%. Factor analysis demonstrates that CES-D 10 contains the same underlying factors of positive and negative affect found in the original development of the CES-D 20.

Conclusion

The 10-item CES-D is a comparable tool to measure depressive symptoms among HIV-positive research participants.     

Pedestrian road traffic injuries in urban Peruvian children and adolescents: case control analyses of personal and environmental risk factors

Background

Child pedestrian road traffic injuries (RTIs) are an important cause of death and disability in poorer nations, however RTI prevention strategies in those countries largely draw upon studies conducted in wealthier countries. This research investigated personal and environmental risk factors for child pedestrian RTIs relevant to an urban, developing world setting.

Methods

This is a case control study of personal and environmental risk factors for child pedestrian RTIs in San Juan de Miraflores, Lima, Perú. The analysis of personal risk factors included 100 cases of serious pedestrian RTIs and 200 age and gender matched controls. Demographic, socioeconomic, and injury data were collected. The environmental risk factor study evaluated vehicle and pedestrian movement and infrastructure at the sites in which 40 of the above case RTIs occurred and 80 control sites.

Findings

After adjustment, factors associated with increased risk of child pedestrian RTIs included high vehicle volume (OR 7·88, 95%CI 1·97–31·52), absent lane demarcations (OR 6·59, 95% CI 1·65–26·26), high vehicle speed (OR 5·35, 95%CI 1·55–18·54), high street vendor density (OR 1·25, 95%CI 1·01–1·55), and more children living in the home (OR 1·25, 95%CI 1·00–1·56). Protective factors included more hours/day spent in school (OR 0·52, 95%CI 0·33–0·82) and years of family residence in the same home (OR 0·97, 95%CI 0·95–0·99).

Conclusion

Reducing traffic volumes and speeds, limiting the number of street vendors on a given stretch of road, and improving lane demarcation should be evaluated as components of child pedestrian RTI interventions in poorer countries.     

Estimating loss to follow-up in HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy: the effect of the competing risk of death in Zambia and Switzerland

Background

Loss to follow-up (LTFU) is common in antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes. Mortality is a competing risk (CR) for LTFU; however, it is often overlooked in cohort analyses. We examined how the CR of death affected LTFU estimates in Zambia and Switzerland.

Methods and Findings

HIV-infected patients aged ≥18 years who started ART 2004–2008 in observational cohorts in Zambia and Switzerland were included. We compared standard Kaplan-Meier curves with CR cumulative incidence. We calculated hazard ratios for LTFU across CD4 cell count strata using cause-specific Cox models, or Fine and Gray subdistribution models, adjusting for age, gender, body mass index and clinical stage. 89,339 patients from Zambia and 1,860 patients from Switzerland were included. 12,237 patients (13.7%) in Zambia and 129 patients (6.9%) in Switzerland were LTFU and 8,498 (9.5%) and 29 patients (1.6%), respectively, died. In Zambia, the probability of LTFU was overestimated in Kaplan-Meier curves: estimates at 3.5 years were 29.3% for patients starting ART with CD4 cells <100 cells/µl and 15.4% among patients starting with ≥350 cells/µL. The estimates from CR cumulative incidence were 22.9% and 13.6%, respectively. Little difference was found between naïve and CR analyses in Switzerland since only few patients died. The results from Cox and Fine and Gray models were similar: in Zambia the risk of loss to follow-up and death increased with decreasing CD4 counts at the start of ART, whereas in Switzerland there was a trend in the opposite direction, with patients with higher CD4 cell counts more likely to be lost to follow-up.

Conclusions

In ART programmes in low-income settings the competing risk of death can substantially bias standard analyses of LTFU. The CD4 cell count and other prognostic factors may be differentially associated with LTFU in low-income and high-income settings.     

Risk factors for pre-treatment mortality among HIV-infected children in rural Zambia: a cohort study

Background

Many HIV-infected children in sub-Saharan Africa enter care at a late stage of disease. As preparation of the child and family for antiretroviral therapy (ART) can take several clinic visits, some children die prior to ART initiation. This study was undertaken to determine mortality rates and clinical predictors of mortality during the period prior to ART initiation.

Methods

A prospective cohort study of HIV-infected treatment-naïve children was conducted between September 2007 and September 2010 at the HIV clinic at Macha Hospital in rural Southern Province, Zambia. HIV-infected children younger than 16 years of age who were treatment-naïve at study enrollment were eligible for analysis. Mortality rates prior to ART initiation were calculated and risk factors for mortality were evaluated.

Results

351 children were included in the study, of whom 210 (59.8%) were eligible for ART at study enrollment. Among children ineligible for ART at enrollment, 6 children died (mortality rate: 0.33; 95% CI:0.15, 0.74). Among children eligible at enrollment, 21 children died before initiation of ART and their mortality rate (2.73 per 100 person-years; 95% CI:1.78, 4.18) was significantly higher than among children ineligible for ART (incidence rate ratio: 8.20; 95% CI:3.20, 24.83). In both groups, mortality was highest in the first three months of follow-up. Factors associated with mortality included younger age, anemia and lower weight-for-age z-score at study enrollment.

Conclusions

These results underscore the need to increase efforts to identify HIV-infected children at an earlier age and stage of disease progression so they can enroll in HIV care and treatment programs prior to becoming eligible for ART and these deaths can be prevented.