Blood mercury concentrations in common bottlenose dolphins from the Indian River Lagoon,Florida: Patterns of social distribution

Social network analysis has been shown to be effective in studying the social structure of cetacean populations. Common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) inhabiting the Indian River Lagoon (IRL), Florida, have among the highest concentrations of total mercury (THg) in blood reported worldwide. The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between THg concentrations in IRL dolphins and their social affiliations. Whole blood samples from 98 dolphins with photo‐identification sighting histories were collected between 2003–2007 and 2010–2012. Dolphins were categorized into approximate tertiles of low (mean 199.7 μg/L), medium (mean 366.8 μg/L), and high (mean 990.5 μg/L) THg exposure. Social associations between individual dolphins were defined by the proportion of sightings documented with another known individual. Social network measures of individuals and associations between dyads were examined to determine differences among THg categories. Strong social affiliations of individuals within the highest category of THg were found (P = 0.04), suggesting shared exposures among dolphins foraging in specific areas of the estuary. Network measures of strength and affinity were significantly higher in the highest exposure category. This report used social network analysis as a novel way to examine patterns of exposure to an environmental contaminant in a cetacean population.     

Social communities and spatiotemporal dynamics of association patterns in estuarine bottlenose dolphins

Network analysis has recently been used to delve into the dynamics of cetacean sociality. Few studies, however, have addressed how habitat shape influences sociality, specifically how linear water bodies constrain the space where individuals might interact. We utilized network and spatiotemporal analyses to investigate association patterns and community structure in a bottlenose dolphin population in a linear estuarine system, the Indian River Lagoon (IRL), Florida. Using sighting histories from a multiyear photo‐identification study we examined association patterns for 185 individuals collected over a 6.5 yr period (2002–2008). The population was highly differentiated (S = 0.723) and organized into six distinct social communities (Q = 0.544), spread in an overlapping pattern along the linear system. Social organization differed between communities, with some displaying highly interconnected networks and others comprising loosely affiliated individuals with more ephemeral associations. Temporal patterns indicated short‐term associations were a significant feature of the fission‐fusion dynamics of this population. Spatial analyses revealed that social structure was shaped by an individual's ranging patterns and by social processes including preference and avoidance behavior. Finally, we found that habitat “narrowness” may be a major driving force behind the sociality observed.     

Lobomycosis in Bottlenose Dolphins (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Tursiops truncatus</Emphasis>) from the Indian River Lagoon,Florida: Estimation of Prevalence,Temporal Trends,and Spatial Distribution

Lobomycosis (lacaziosis) is a chronic fungal disease of the skin that affects only dolphins and humans. Previous studies have shown a high prevalence of lobomycosis in bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) from the Indian River Lagoon, Florida (IRL). We studied the occurrence and distribution of lobomycosis in the IRL using photo-identification survey data collected between 1996 and 2006. Our objectives were to (1) determine the sensitivity and specificity of photo-identification for diagnosis of lobomycosis in free-ranging dolphins; (2) determine the spatial distribution of lobomycosis in the IRL; and (3) assess temporal patterns of occurrence. Photographs from 704 distinctly marked dolphins were reviewed for skin lesions compatible with lobomycosis. The presumptive diagnosis was validated by comparing the results of photographic analysis with physical examination and histologic examination of lesion biopsies in 102 dolphins captured and released during a health assessment and 3 stranded dolphins. Twelve of 16 confirmed cases were identified previously by photography, a sensitivity of 75%. Among 89 dolphins without disease, all 89 were considered negative, a specificity of 100%. The prevalence of lobomycosis estimated from photographic data was 6.8% (48/704). Spatial distribution was determined by dividing the IRL into six segments based on hydrodynamics and geographic features. The prevalence ranged from <1% in the Mosquito Lagoon to 16.9% in the south Indian River. The incidence of the disease did not increase during the study period, indicating that the disease is endemic, rather than emerging. In summary, photo-identification is a useful tool to monitor the course of individual and population health for this enigmatic disease.     

Complex-to-Predict Generational Shift between Nested and Clustered Organization of Individual Prey Networks in Digger Wasps

Although diet has traditionally been considered to be a property of the species or populations as a whole, there is nowadays extensive knowledge that individual specialization is widespread among animal populations. Nevertheless, the factors determining the shape of interactions within food webs remain largely undiscovered, especially in predatory insects. We used an aggregation of the digger wasp Bembix merceti to 1) analyse patterns of individual prey use across three flying seasons in a network–based context; and 2) test the effect of four potential factors that might explain network topologies (wasp mass, nest spatial distribution, simultaneous nest-provisioning, prey availability). Inter-individual diet variation was found in all three years, under different predator-prey network topologies: Individuals arranged in dietary clusters and displayed a checkerboard pattern in 2009, but showed nestedness in 2008 and 2010. Network topologies were not fully explained by the tested factors. Larger females consumed a higher proportion of the total number of prey species captured by the population as a whole, in such a way that nested patterns may arise from mass-dependent prey spectrum width. Conversely, individuals with similar body mass didn’t form clusters. Nested patterns seemed to be associated with a greater availability of the main prey species (a proxy for reduced intra-specific competition). Thus, according with theory, clusters seemed to appear when competition increased. On the other hand, the nests of the individuals belonging to a given cluster were not more closely located, and neither did individuals within a cluster provision their nests simultaneously. Thus, a female-female copying behaviour during foraging was unlikely. In conclusion, wasp populations can maintain a considerable individual variation across years under different food web organizations. The tested factors only partially accounted for the shift in network properties, and new analyses should be carried out to elucidate how diet network topologies arise in wasp populations.     

Home Ranges of Bottlenose Dolphins (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Tursiops truncatus</Emphasis>) in the Indian River Lagoon,Florida: Environmental Correlates and Implications for Management Strategies

Photo-identification surveys conducted between 2002 and 2005 were used to determine dolphin home ranges and site fidelity within the Indian River Lagoon (IRL), Florida. The IRL was divided into six segments based on hydrodynamics and geographic features for purposes of characterization. Among the 615 dolphins with identifiable dorsal fins, 339 had ≥6 sightings and were used in segment and linear range analyses. The majority (98%) of dolphins were seen in ≤3 consecutive segments (331/339); of these, 44% (144/331) occurred in two segments, and 33% (109/331) in one segment. No dolphins were observed in all six segments. The largest number of dolphins was sighted in segment 1C (North Indian River). However, the highest density of dolphins was found in segment 2 (North-Central Indian River). Re-sighting rates for dolphins with ≥6 sightings ranged from 2.8 to 8.7 times observed. The mean linear home range varied from 22 to 54 km. Distributional analyses indicated that at least three different dolphin communities exist within the IRL: Mosquito Lagoon, and the North and South Indian River. No statistically significant correlations were found between the total number or density per km² of dolphins and surface water area, salinity, or contaminant loads within segments of the lagoon. These results suggest that dolphins do not selectively avoid areas with relatively unfavorable water quality. IRL dolphins should be studied on smaller spatial scales than currently practiced, and potential anthropogenic impacts should be evaluated based on geographic partitioning.     

Demographic Clusters Identified within the Northern Gulf of Mexico Common Bottlenose Dolphin (Tursiops truncates) Unusual Mortality Event: January 2010 - June 2013

A multi-year unusual mortality event (UME) involving primarily common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncates) was declared in the northern Gulf of Mexico (GoM) with an initial start date of February 2010 and remains ongoing as of August 2014. To examine potential changing characteristics of the UME over time, we compared the number and demographics of dolphin strandings from January 2010 through June 2013 across the entire GoM as well as against baseline (1990-2009) GoM stranding patterns. Years 2010 and 2011 had the highest annual number of stranded dolphins since Louisiana’s record began, and 2011 was one of the years with the highest strandings for both Mississippi and Alabama. Statewide, annual numbers of stranded dolphins were not elevated for GoM coasts of Florida or Texas during the UME period. Demographic, spatial, and temporal clusters identified within this UME included increased strandings in northern coastal Louisiana and Mississippi (March-May 2010); Barataria Bay, Louisiana (August 2010-December 2011); Mississippi and Alabama (2011, including a high prevalence and number of stranded perinates); and multiple GoM states during early 2013. While the causes of the GoM UME have not been determined, the location and magnitude of dolphin strandings during and the year following the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill, including the Barataria Bay cluster from August 2010 to December 2011, overlap in time and space with locations that received heavy and prolonged oiling. There are, however, multiple known causes of previous GoM dolphin UMEs, including brevetoxicosis and dolphin morbillivirus. Additionally, increased dolphin strandings occurred in northern Louisiana and Mississippi before the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Identification of spatial, temporal, and demographic clusters within the UME suggest that this mortality event may involve different contributing factors varying by location, time, and bottlenose dolphin populations that will be better discerned by incorporating diagnostic information, including histopathology.     

Short‐finned pilot whales (Globicephala macrorhynchus) of the Mariana Archipelago: Individual affiliations,movements, and spatial use

Little is known about short‐finned pilot whales (Globicephala macrorhynchus) in the western North Pacific outside of Japanese coastal waters. To expand understanding of short‐finned pilot whale ecology in the region, we conducted small‐boat surveys in 2010?2016 within the Mariana Archipelago to investigate individual associations, movements, spatial use, and dive behavior of short‐finned pilot whales. We collected genetic, photo‐identification, and satellite‐tag data and identified 191 distinctive individuals. A preliminary social network diagram of photo‐cataloged individuals revealed a main cluster that comprised 82% of individuals, representing all five mitochondrial DNA haplotypes identified within the population. Kernel density estimates for tagged short‐finned pilot whales (n = 11) during summer were used to identify areas with the highest probability of use (10% probability density contour), core area (50%) and home range (95%). The area with highest probability of use by short‐finned pilot whales was off the northwest side of Guam. Satellite tag data also suggest that some individuals are island‐associated year‐round. Data from five location‐dive tags demonstrated that the short‐finned pilot whales dove more often to intermediate depths at twilight and night, suggesting they may target prey that forage on the deep scattering layer as it migrates to and from the surface.     

The effects of food level and social density on reproduction in the Least Killifish,Heterandria formosa

The feedbacks from population density to demographic parameters, which drive population regulation, are the accumulated results of several ecological processes. The compensatory feedback from increased population density to fertility includes at least two distinct factors, the effects of decreases in per capita food level and increases in the social density (the number of interacting individuals). Because these effects have been studied separately, their relative importance is unknown. It is also unclear whether food limitation and social density combine additively to influence fertility. We investigated these questions with two factorial experiments on reproduction in the Least Killifish, Heterandria formosa. In one experiment, we crossed two levels of density with two levels of a total food ration that was distributed to all individuals. In the other experiment, we crossed two levels of density with two levels of per capita food. Whereas the first experiment suggested that the effects of variation in food level and density were synergistic, the second experiment indicated that they were not. The apparent synergism—the statistical interaction of food and density levels—was the result of confounding per capita food with social density in that design. In the second experiment, the effects of social density on reproductive rate were stronger than the effects of food level, whereas the effects of food level were stronger on offspring size at parturition than those of social density. The results suggest that the social stresses that emerge at higher densities play an important role in the compensatory response of fertility to density, a role, that is, at least as important as that of decreased per capita food levels.     

Socially Defined Subpopulations Reveal Demographic Variation in a Giraffe Metapopulation

Populations are typically defined as spatially contiguous sets of individuals, but large populations of social species can be composed of discrete social communities that often overlap in space. Masai giraffes (Giraffa camelopardalis tippelskirchi) of Tanzania live in distinct social subpopulations that overlap spatially, enabling us to simultaneously explore environmental and social factors correlated with demographic variation in a metapopulation of >1,400 adult females and calves. We considered statistically distinct communities in the social network as subpopulations and tested for variation among the 10 subpopulations in adult female survival, calf survival, and reproductive rate (calf-to-adult female ratio). We then related variation in demographic rates among subpopulations to differences in vegetation, soil type, proximity to 2 types of human settlements, local giraffe population density, and social metrics of relationship strength and exclusivity among adult females. We did not find any among-subpopulation effects on adult female survival, suggesting adult female survival is buffered against environmental heterogeneity among subpopulations. Variation in calf demographic rates among subpopulations were correlated with vegetation, soils, anthropogenic factors, and giraffe population density but not with adult female relationship metrics, despite substantial spatial overlap. Subpopulations with more dense bushlands in their ranges had lower calf survival probabilities, and those closer to human settlements had higher reproductive rates, possibly because of spatial gradients in natural predation. Reproductive rates were higher in subpopulations with more volcanic soils, and calf survival probabilities were greater in subpopulations with higher local adult female densities, possibly related to higher-quality habitat associated with fertile soils or lower predation risk, or to greater competitive ability. The variation in fitness among subpopulations suggests that giraffes do not move unhindered among resource patches to equalize reproductive success, as expected according to an ideal free distribution. The differences in calf survival and reproductive rates could rather indicate intercommunity differences in competitive ability, perception, learning, or experience. Our approach of comparing demography among spatially overlapping yet distinct socially defined subpopulations provides a biologically meaningful way to quantify environmental and social factors influencing fine-scale demographic variation for social species. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.     

Seahorse (Hippocampinae) population fluctuations in the Ria Formosa Lagoon,south Portugal

Comparisons of three sets of surveys in the Ria Formosa Lagoon, Portugal, over a 13 year period (2001–2002, 2008–2009 and 2010–2013) revealed significant population fluctuations in at least one of the two seahorse (Hippocampinae) species living there, and that those fluctuations were potentially associated with habitat changes in the lagoon. After a significant decline between the first two survey periods (2001–2002 v. 2008–2009), long‐snouted seahorse Hippocampus guttulatus populations increased significantly between 2008–2009 surveys and new 2010–2013 surveys. There were no significant differences in H. guttulatus populations between the 2001–2002 and 2010–2013 surveys. In contrast, there were no significant differences in short‐snouted seahorse Hippocampus hippocampus densities among the 16 sites surveyed throughout the three sampling periods, although the ability to detect any change was hampered by the low densities of this species in all time periods. Fluctuations in H. guttulatus densities were positively correlated with the percentage of holdfast coverage, but with none of the other environmental variables tested. These results highlight the importance of holdfast availability in maintaining stable seahorse populations. While population fluctuations are certainly more promising than a consistent downward decline, such extreme fluctuations observed for seahorses in the Ria Formosa Lagoon could still leave these two species vulnerable to any additional stressors, particularly during low density periods.     

Environmental drivers of habitat use by common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in the Indian River Lagoon,Florida, USA

Anthropogenic impacts in estuarine systems can influence marine mammal habitat use, population dynamics, fitness, and mortality events. The objective was to examine habitat use among the resident common bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) population inhabiting the Indian River Lagoon, Florida, and the influences of variation in environmental factors and prey availability in 2003–2015. We utilized photo-identification surveys, stratified random samples of prey, and environmental variables collected monthly. Kernel density estimation was used to determine the magnitude-per-unit area of dolphins across the IRL by wet and dry seasons each year, the values were used as a response variable in classification and regression tree analyses with fish community and environmental variables as predictors. Spatial patterns in dolphin density in the IRL were associated with salinity and dissolved oxygen levels, which are in part associated with freshwater discharges of nutrient and algae laden waters from the region's storm water management system. These findings isolate locations of concern for management of dolphin habitat, and anthropogenic drivers of dolphin distributions requiring further research.     

Spatial distribution of genetic relatedness in a moorland population of red grouse (Lagopus lagopus scoticus)

Several aspects of the ecology and biology of red grouse (Lagopus lagopus scoticus) could prevent the complete admixture of genes within and between populations. Male red grouse display a high degree of natal philopatry, are territorial, and show less aggression to kin man to non-kin. Such factors acting in combination predict limited male-mediated gene flow, which will promote social structure within a population by the formation of stable kin clusters, and facilitate a rapid rise in allelic coancestry and/or inbreeding. In this study we utilize hypervariable microsatellite polymorphisms to examine the extent of social affiliation between relatives in a moorland population of grouse from NE Scodand. Levels of genetic relatedness between individual male red grouse occupying territories at Glas Choille in die spring and autumn of 1995 were examined, and kin clusters delimited. Nine kin groups (mean size = 2.4 individuals) were identified prior to breeding in the spring, which increased to 11 kin groups (mean size =4.0 individuals) when territories were reformed in the autumn. The majority of tiiose individuals that were recruited into the adult population during the autumn already had a first-order male relative established, supporting the hypothesis that recruitment is facilitated by behavioural interactions among relatives. The demographic and population genetic consequences of philopatric recruitment and kin clustering are examined and discussed.     

Density, social information, and space use in the common lizard (Lacerta vivipara)

Socially acquired information is widespread in the animal kingdom.Many individuals make behavioral decisions based on such socialinformation. In particular, individuals may decide to leaveor select their habitat based on social information. Few studieshave investigated the role of density-related information, apotential social cue about habitat quality in dispersal. Here,we tested for the possibility that the phenotype of intrudercommon lizards (Lacerta vivipara) may inadvertently carry informationabout their natal population density. We found that such informationuse is likely. The behavior of focal lizard was influenced bythe natal population density of the intruder it was interactingwith. This suggests that individuals may use the behavior ofothers to acquire appropriate information about surroundingsand to base spatial decisions on this information. Density-relatedinformation may then affect individual movement decisions andthus metapopulation dynamics.     

Social network analysis of mating patterns in American black bears (Ursus americanus)

Nonrandom mating can structure populations and has important implications for population‐level processes. Investigating how and why mating deviates from random is important for understanding evolutionary processes as well as informing conservation and management. Prior to the implementation of parentage analyses, understanding mating patterns in solitary, elusive species like bears was virtually impossible. Here, we capitalize on a long‐term genetic data set collected from black bears (Ursus americanus) (N = 2422) in the Northern Lower Peninsula (NLP) of Michigan, USA. We identified mated pairs using parentage analysis and applied logistic regression (selection) models that controlled for features of the social network, to quantify the effects of individual characteristics, and spatial and population demographic factors on mating dynamics. Logistic regression models revealed that black bear mating was associated with spatial proximity of mates, male age, the time a pair had coexisted, local population density and relatedness. Mated pairs were more likely to contain older males. On average, bears tended to mate with nearby individuals to whom they were related, which does not support the existence of kin recognition in black bears. Pairwise relatedness was especially high for mated pairs containing young males. Restricted dispersal and high male turnover from intensive harvest mortality of NLP black bears are probably the underlying factors associated with younger male bears mating more often with female relatives. Our findings illustrate how harvest has the potential to disrupt the social structure of game species, which warrants further attention for conservation and management.     

Satoyama–satoumi sub-global assessment in Japan and involvement of the Hokkaido Cluster

A sub-global assessment (SGA) began in Japan in November 2006, and is projected to end in May 2010, when the Tenth Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (COP10) will be held in Nagoya City. Since May 2008, we have been involved in the evaluation of the Hokkaido Cluster, one of four clusters assessed. This report provides a brief background of the relationships between the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) and the SGA, and the governance structure of the SGA in Japan. It also describes our efforts in assessing the Hokkaido Cluster and discusses the challenges of SGA at the cluster and national levels. The MA was a 4-year international appraisal of scientific knowledge on world ecosystems and included global and sub-global assessment. After the MA, Japan began a satoyama–satoumi SGA in 2006. This is composed of six teams: the board, a science assessment panel, author groups, local advisory bodies, the board of review editors, and secretariat. Author groups include a national group and groups for four local clusters: Hokkaido, Tohoku, Hoku-shin-etsu, and Western Japan. Work in the Hokkaido Cluster began with a small group in 2008. Authors for the cluster report were selected from among experts on important events regarding satoyama and satoumi in Hokkaido. Generally, Hokkaido has no traditional satoyama–satoumi landscapes created by long-term interactions with the local people. We are now seeking the style of sustainable nature use that is best suited to Hokkaido. The SGA in Japan now faces the challenge of integrating the four cluster assessments according to common indicators.     

Community structure and cluster definition of Atlantic spotted dolphins,Stenella frontalis,in the Bahamas

Fission‐fusion dynamics typical of many delphinid populations allow for a variety of social grouping patterns. Identifying these groupings is crucial before conducting a detailed social structure analysis. This study analyzed the structure of a population of Bahamian spotted dolphins, Stenella frontalis. Through long‐term observations and preliminary analysis, three clusters were defined: Northern, Central, and Southern. To quantitatively investigate these delineations, we conducted analysis on 12 yr of sighting data using SOCPROG 2.3. Coefficients of association (CoA) were calculated using the half‐weight index, with individuals sighted six or more times per pooled period (3 yr each). Nonmetric multidimensional scaling (MD), hierarchical agglomerative cluster analysis and Mantel tests were conducted to determine if any divisions were present. Mantel tests and MD plots analysis supported the delineations into the three clusters. Cluster analysis showed cluster groupings, but with less clear distinctions between the clusters. The amount and strength of associations were significantly higher within clusters than between clusters. Based on behavioral and geographic overlap, these clusters did not meet the definition of separate communities and thus were termed social clusters. These fine scale, within community divisions, are biologically and socially important aspects of their community and are crucial in understanding the dolphins’ social structure.     

Social carry‐over effects underpin trans‐seasonally linked structure in a wild bird population

Spatial structure underpins numerous population processes by determining the environment individuals' experience and which other individuals they encounter. Yet, how the social landscape influences individuals' spatial decisions remains largely unexplored. Wild great tits (Parus major) form freely moving winter flocks, but choose a single location to establish a breeding territory over the spring. We demonstrate that individuals' winter social associations carry‐over into their subsequent spatial decisions, as individuals breed nearer to those they were most associated with during winter. Further, they also form territory boundaries with their closest winter associates, irrespective of breeding distance. These findings were consistent across years, and among all demographic classes, suggesting that such social carry‐over effects may be general. Thus, prior social structure can shape the spatial proximity, and fine‐scale arrangement, of breeding individuals. In this way, social networks can influence a wide range of processes linked to individuals' breeding locations, including other social interactions themselves.     

Social structure of Atlantic spotted dolphins,Stenella frontalis,following environmental disturbance and demographic changes

Extreme environmental events and demographic changes can have variable effects on the social structure of animal populations. This study compared the social structure of a community of Atlantic spotted dolphins in the Bahamas before and after two hurricanes. Approximately 36% of the individuals were lost, with no subsequent increase in immigration. The majority of the social structure characteristics were consistent with results from a long‐term study covering the previous 12 yr, including community structure with definitive social clusters, sex preferences and overall association patterns. However some changes occurred, though still constrained within sex preferences. Posthurricane there was a decrease in social differentiation and increased cohesion within clusters and across age class. Males retained or made new first order alliances, however, only one second order alliance was evident, revealing a simplified alliance structure. Juvenile individuals made alliance level associations, unprecedented from long‐term analysis. Although other studies have shown stark restructuring, this study showed that less drastic changes within overall social structure stability can occur. Persistence and evolutionary changes in populations through environmental and/or demographic perturbations may depend on the social structure of a population or community. Understanding the processes involved in social development is paramount for conservation of diverse populations.     

Behavioural responses to food addition by hedgehogs

We conducted a field experiment at a 4-ha sports ground in Oxford between May and August 1992 to analyse the role of learning and social organization m the short-term responses of hedgehogs Erinaceus europaeus to manipulations of food availability On six nights we uniformly distnbuted 36 'prey' (cat food chunks) twice a night in an 70 × 70 m area (the 'patch') Prey were placed at sites marked with small flags In a subsequent experiment lasting five nights, non-marked and randomly distributed prey were provided We regularly mapped the position of individuals, before, during and after both food supplementation treatments Hedgehogs showed a stable pattern of spatial utilisation of the habitat during the non-hibernation months prior to experimental perturbation Addition of food to parts of the habitat significantly and rapidly changed these patterns a) Hedgehog density increased in food supplemented pans of the habitat b) Hedgehogs learned to associate visual cues with the presence of food c) Hedgehogs learned the spatial location of patches d) Hedgehogs probably engaged in 'area restricted' searching Hedgehogs had overlapping home ranges but showed a uniform distribution within patches and avoided conspecifics at distance < 30 m The number of different individuals visiting the area decreased throughout the experiment Food addition did not significantly change the mean density of hedgehogs, perhaps because social interactions placed an upper limit on density in the areas with supplementary food     

Spatiotemporal Patterns of Japanese Encephalitis in China, 2002–2010

Objective

The aim of the study is to examine the spatiotemporal pattern of Japanese Encephalitis (JE) in mainland China during 2002–2010. Specific objectives of the study were to quantify the temporal variation in incidence of JE cases, to determine if clustering of JE cases exists, to detect high risk spatiotemporal clusters of JE cases and to provide evidence-based preventive suggestions to relevant stakeholders.

Methods

Monthly JE cases at the county level in mainland China during 2002–2010 were obtained from the China Information System for Diseases Control and Prevention (CISDCP). For the purpose of the analysis, JE case counts for nine years were aggregated into four temporal periods (2002; 2003–2005; 2006; and 2007–2010). Local Indicators of Spatial Association and spatial scan statistics were performed to detect and evaluate local high risk space-time clusters.

Results

JE incidence showed a decreasing trend from 2002 to 2005 but peaked in 2006, then fluctuated over the study period. Spatial cluster analysis detected high value clusters, mainly located in Southwestern China. Similarly, we identified a primary spatiotemporal cluster of JE in Southwestern China between July and August, with the geographical range of JE transmission increasing over the past years.

Conclusion

JE in China is geographically clustered and its spatial extent dynamically changed during the last nine years in mainland China. This indicates that risk factors for JE infection are likely to be spatially heterogeneous. The results may assist national and local health authorities in the development/refinement of a better preventive strategy and increase the effectiveness of public health interventions against JE transmission.