Effective size of density‐dependent populations in fluctuating environments

Reliable estimates of effective population size are of central importance in population genetics and evolutionary biology. For populations that fluctuate in size, harmonic mean population size is commonly used as a proxy for (multi‐) generational effective size. This assumes no effects of density dependence on the ratio between effective and actual population size, which limits its potential application. Here, we introduce density dependence on vital rates in a demographic model of variance effective size. We derive an expression for the ratio in a density‐regulated population in a fluctuating environment. We show by simulations that yearly genetic drift is accurately predicted by our model, and not proportional to as assumed by the harmonic mean model, where N is the total population size of mature individuals. We find a negative relationship between and N. For a given N, the ratio depends on variance in reproductive success and the degree of resource limitation acting on the population growth rate. Finally, our model indicate that environmental stochasticity may affect not only through fluctuations in N, but also for a given N at a given time. Our results show that estimates of effective population size must include effects of density dependence and environmental stochasticity.     

Short‐term insurance versus long‐term bet‐hedging strategies as adaptations to variable environments

Understanding how organisms adapt to environmental variation is a key challenge of biology. Central to this are bet‐hedging strategies that maximize geometric mean fitness across generations, either by being conservative or diversifying phenotypes. Theoretical models have identified environmental variation across generations with multiplicative fitness effects as driving the evolution of bet‐hedging. However, behavioral ecology has revealed adaptive responses to additive fitness effects of environmental variation within lifetimes, either through insurance or risk‐sensitive strategies. Here, we explore whether the effects of adaptive insurance interact with the evolution of bet‐hedging by varying the position and skew of both arithmetic and geometric mean fitness functions. We find that insurance causes the optimal phenotype to shift from the peak to down the less steeply decreasing side of the fitness function, and that conservative bet‐hedging produces an additional shift on top of this, which decreases as adaptive phenotypic variation from diversifying bet‐hedging increases. When diversifying bet‐hedging is not an option, environmental canalization to reduce phenotypic variation is almost always favored, except where the tails of the fitness function are steeply convex and produce a novel risk‐sensitive increase in phenotypic variance akin to diversifying bet‐hedging. Importantly, using skewed fitness functions, we provide the first model that explicitly addresses how conservative and diversifying bet‐hedging strategies might coexist.     

Plasticity versus canalization: population differences in the timing of shade-avoidance responses

The reliability of environmental cues and costs of a fixed phenotype are two factors determining whether selection favors phenotypic plasticity or environmental specialization. This study examines the relationship between these two factors and the evolution of plant competitive strategies (plastic vs. fixed morphologies). In natural plant populations, shifts in light quality associated with foliar shade reliably indicate the presence of neighbors. These cues mediate plastic stem-elongation responses that often increase competitive ability and access to light. Using experimental light treatments (full sun, neutral shade, and foliar shade), genetic differences among populations of Abutilon theophrasti (velvetleaf) in average elongation and plasticity to foliar-shade cues were examined. Six populations, two from each of three site types (fields in continuous corn cultivation, fields undergoing corn-soy rotation, and weedy sites), were exposed to the light treatments at two stages in their life history. At the seedling stage, populations derived from cornfield sites exhibited higher, average elongation than populations from either rotating corn-soy fields or weedy areas. Because seedling elongation may delay shading of velvetleaf by corn, population differences may reflect adaptive responses to directional selection imposed by competitive conditions. However, the effects of simulated foliar shade on elongation were three times as great as the average population differences, and these comparatively higher levels of elongation were associated with an allocation cost. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that phenotypic plasticity may limit the evolution of specialists; reliable environmental cues enable individuals to facultatively adopt highly elongated, costly phenotypes in crowded patches while avoiding the costs of that phenotype in less crowded microsites. At later life-history stages, populations experiencing competition with corn exhibited lower plasticity to light quality than populations derived from weedy areas. Elongation at later nodes is maladaptive in cornfields because velvetleaf is ultimately incapable of overtopping corn; individuals that elongate therefore experience the cost of allocating to stems but fail to improve leaf exposure. The decreased responsiveness of cornfield populations to light quality is consistent with theoretical predictions in which reduced plasticity is favored when environmental cues fail to mediate an adaptive response.     

Environmental specialists: their prevalence and their influence on community-similarity analyses

Recent research suggests that environmental or habitat specialization among plants may be less common than previously thought. These findings need to be reconciled with interpretations of community‐level similarity analyses that emphasize a strong role for specialization. Here we examine specialization within a taxonomic group that, owing to their widespread use as environmental indicators, should provide ample supportive evidence of specialization: freshwater sediment diatoms. Using an ideal, 239‐lake survey data set that reliably represents the environmental conditions among c. 9500 north‐eastern US lakes (encompassing a c. 405 000 km² region), we show that only 29 and 14% of 401 species (those occurring in at least two lakes) exhibited narrower pH and total phosphorus niche breadths, respectively, than expected from the random occupation of lakes. These rates increase slightly using more stringent species‐inclusion criteria. Highly significant correlations between compositional and environmental resemblance matrices are shown to reflect a balance between a strong signal generated by the minority specialists, and noise generated by the majority generalists.     

Evolution of phenotypic plasticity and environmental tolerance of a labile quantitative character in a fluctuating environment

Quantitative genetic models of evolution of phenotypic plasticity are used to derive environmental tolerance curves for a population in a changing environment, providing a theoretical foundation for integrating physiological and community ecology with evolutionary genetics of plasticity and norms of reaction. Plasticity is modelled for a labile quantitative character undergoing continuous reversible development and selection in a fluctuating environment. If there is no cost of plasticity, a labile character evolves expected plasticity equalling the slope of the optimal phenotype as a function of the environment. This contrasts with previous theory for plasticity influenced by the environment at a critical stage of early development determining a constant adult phenotype on which selection acts, for which the expected plasticity is reduced by the environmental predictability over the discrete time lag between development and selection. With a cost of plasticity in a labile character, the expected plasticity depends on the cost and on the environmental variance and predictability averaged over the continuous developmental time lag. Environmental tolerance curves derived from this model confirm traditional assumptions in physiological ecology and provide new insights. Tolerance curve width increases with larger environmental variance, but can only evolve within a limited range. The strength of the trade‐off between tolerance curve height and width depends on the cost of plasticity. Asymmetric tolerance curves caused by male sterility at high temperature are illustrated. A simple condition is given for a large transient increase in plasticity and tolerance curve width following a sudden change in average environment.     

Timing in a fluctuating environment: environmental variability and asymmetric fitness curves can lead to adaptively mismatched avian reproduction

Adaptation in dynamic environments depends on the grain, magnitude and predictability of ecological fluctuations experienced within and across generations. Phenotypic plasticity is a well-studied mechanism in this regard, yet the potentially complex effects of stochastic environmental variation on optimal mean trait values are often overlooked. Using an optimality model inspired by timing of reproduction in great tits, we show that temporal variation affects not only optimal reaction norm slope, but also elevation. With increased environmental variation and an asymmetric relationship between fitness and breeding date, optimal timing shifts away from the side of the fitness curve with the steepest decline. In a relatively constant environment, the timing of the birds is matched with the seasonal food peak, but they become adaptively mismatched in environments with temporal variation in temperature whenever the fitness curve is asymmetric. Various processes affecting the survival of offspring and parents influence this asymmetry, which collectively determine the 'safest' strategy, i.e. whether females should breed before, on, or after the food peak in a variable environment. As climate change might affect the (co)variance of environmental variables as well as their averages, risk aversion may influence how species should shift their seasonal timing in a warming world.     

Ecological niche differentiation in the Aphelocoma jays: a phylogenetic perspective

The Aphelocoma jays have become an important touchstone in behavioural ecology and biogeography – the corpus of studies of this genus makes it an important point of reference. Aphelocoma evolutionary history, nevertheless, has been the subject of two papers reaching opposite conclusions, even though they were based on the same allozyme data set. Herein, we present a second molecular data set – 500 bases of the ND2 gene – and analyse it cladistically to arrive at a new hypothesis of phylogenetic relationships. Recent hypotheses by other investigators of a hybrid origin of Aphelocoma populations are strongly contradicted. The ecological context within which these evolutionary processes are taking place is characterized using new tools for modelling ecological niches of species along a spectrum from humid tropical to dry temperate habitats. Evolutionary patterns of ecological niches are shown to consist of drastic departures from rate-uniformity and ecological niche conservatism.  © 2003 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society , 2003, 80 , 369–383.     

Selection in a fluctuating environment leads to decreased genetic variation and facilitates the evolution of phenotypic plasticity

Changes in the environment are expected to induce changes in the quantitative genetic variation, which influences the ability of a population to adapt to environmental change. Furthermore, environmental changes are not constant in time, but fluctuate. Here, we investigate the effect of rapid, continuous and/or fluctuating temperature changes in the seed beetle Callosobruchus maculatus, using an evolution experiment followed by a split-brood experiment. In line with expectations, individuals responded in a plastic way and had an overall higher potential to respond to selection after a rapid change in the environment. After selection in an environment with increasing temperature, plasticity remained unchanged (or decreased) and environmental variation decreased, especially when fluctuations were added; these results were unexpected. As expected, the genetic variation decreased after fluctuating selection. Our results suggest that fluctuations in the environment have major impact on the response of a population to environmental change; in a highly variable environment with low predictability, a plastic response might not be beneficial and the response is genetically and environmentally canalized resulting in a low potential to respond to selection and low environmental sensitivity. Interestingly, we found greater variation for phenotypic plasticity after selection, suggesting that the potential for plasticity to evolve is facilitated after exposure to environmental fluctuations. Our study highlights that environmental fluctuations should be considered when investigating the response of a population to environmental change.     

Field-based insights to the evolution of specialization: plasticity and fitness across habitats in a specialist/generalist species pair

Factors promoting the evolution of specialists versus generalists have been little studied in ecological context. In a large-scale comparative field experiment, we studied genotypes from naturally evolved populations of a closely related generalist/specialist species pair (Polygonum persicaria and P. hydropiper), reciprocally transplanting replicates of multiple lines into open and partially shaded sites where the species naturally co-occur. We measured relative fitness, individual plasticity, herbivory, and genetic variance expressed in the contrasting light habitats at both low and high densities. Fitness data confirmed that the putative specialist out-performed the generalist in only one environment, the favorable full sun/low-density environment to which it is largely restricted in nature, while the generalist had higher lifetime reproduction in both canopy and dense neighbor shade. The generalist, P. persicaria, also expressed greater adaptive plasticity for biomass allocation and leaf size in shaded conditions than the specialist. We found no evidence that the ecological specialization of P. hydropiper reflects either genetically based fitness trade-offs or maintenance costs of plasticity, two types of genetic constraint often invoked to prevent the evolution of broadly adaptive genotypes. However, the patterns of fitness variance and herbivore damage revealed how release from herbivory in a new range can cause an introduced species to evolve as a specialist in that range, a surprising finding with important implications for invasion biology. Patterns of fitness variance between and within sites are also consistent with a possible role for the process of mutation accumulation (in this case, mutations affecting shade-expressed phenotypes) in the evolution and/or maintenance of specialization in P. hydropiper.     

Experimental evolution in fluctuating environments: tolerance measurements at constant temperatures incorrectly predict the ability to tolerate fluctuating temperatures

The ability to predict the consequences of fluctuating environments on species distribution and extinction often relies on determining the tolerances of species or genotypes in different constant environments (i.e. determining tolerance curves). However, very little is known about the suitability of measurements made in constant environments to predict the level of adaptation to rapidly fluctuating environments. To explore this question, we used bacterial clones adapted to constant or fluctuating temperatures and found that measurements across a range of constant temperatures did not indicate any adaptation to fluctuating temperatures. However, adaptation to fluctuating temperatures was only apparent if growth was measured during thermal fluctuation. Thus, tolerance curves based on measurements in constant environments can be misleading in predicting the ability to tolerate fast environmental fluctuations. Such complications could lead to false estimates of the genetic merits of genotypes and extinction risks of species due to climate change‐induced thermal fluctuations.     

Ecological differences between hamlet (Hypoplectrus: Serranidae) colour morphs: between-morph variation in diet

Dietary differences between hamlet Hypoplectrus spp. colour morphs were examined in fishes from Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands, Curacao, Honduras and Belize. Hamlet diet across all countries was characterized by large overlap between most colour morphs in both the proportion and numbers of dietary items consumed, although some differences between morphs were apparent. Indigo hamlets Hypoplectrus indigo were the only morph to consume fishes (blue chromis Chromis cyanea and sunshinefish Chromis insolata ) almost exclusively. The sympatric occurrence of other ecologically indistinguishable colour morphs, however, suggests that divergent ecological selection alone cannot explain population divergence in hamlets. Geographical variation in diet was also observed within black Hypoplectrus nigricans and yellowtail Hypoplectrus chlorurus hamlets which may reflect geographical differences in prey availability or differences in prey choice.     

Heterozygosity and asymmetry: Ectodysplasin as a form of genetic stress in marine threespine stickleback

Genome‐wide heterozygosity has long been hypothesized to play a role in buffering organisms against developmental perturbations, potentially resulting in increased symmetry. If true, this could in part explain the maintenance of standing genetic variation in wild populations. Marine threespine sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus) were sampled across their eastern Pacific coastal distribution from Alaska to California and variations in asymmetry for both structural and nonstructural armor traits (lateral plates) were assessed. Structural plates consistently showed less asymmetry than nonstructural plates, but standardized measures of heterozygosity were not correlated with the extent of asymmetry expressed by a fish. Fish that were heterozygous for the major‐effect gene controlling lateral plate variation (Ectodysplasin) had higher occurrences of asymmetry, even when the individuals were phenotypically fully plated. Collectively, this suggests that heterozygosity at a major‐effect locus can have a greater impact on asymmetry than heterozygosity sampled across the genome.     

Niche properties of Central European spiders: shading, moisture and the evolution of the habitat niche

Aim  Niche theory emphasizes the importance of environmental conditions for the distribution and abundance of species. Using a macroecological approach our study aimed at identifying the important environmental gradients for spiders. We generated numerical values of niche position and niche width. We also investigated relationships between these niche properties as well as the degree of phylogenetic conservatism in order to draw conclusions about the evolution of the habitat niche.
Location  Central Europe: lowlands of Austria, Belgium, Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Switzerland.
Methods  We analysed 244 published spider communities from 70 habitat types by correspondence analysis. The resulting community scores were used to test for correlations with habitat characteristics. Species scores were used to derive niche position (mean scores) and niche width (standard deviation of scores). To test for niche conservatism we estimated variance components across the taxonomic hierarchy.
Results  The first two axes of the correspondence analysis were correlated with shading and moisture, respectively. Niche width had a hump-shaped relationship to both environmental gradients. β-diversity was strikingly higher in open habitats than in forests. Habitat niche conservatism was lower than phylogenetic conservatism in body size.
Main conclusions  Environmental factors are important drivers for the β-diversity of spiders, especially across open habitats. This underlines the importance of preserving the whole range of moisture conditions in open habitats. Narrow niches of species occurring at the ends of both environmental gradients indicate that adaptations to extreme habitats lead to constraints in ecological flexibility. Nevertheless, the habitat niche of species seems to evolve much faster than morphological or physiological traits.     

Using presence‐only modelling to predict Asian elephant habitat use in a tropical forest landscape: implications for conservation

Aim Asian elephants, Elephas maximus, are threatened throughout their range by a combination of logging, large scale forest conversion and conflict with humans. We investigate which environmental factors, both biotic and abiotic, constrain the current distribution of elephants. A spatially explicit habitat model is constructed to find core areas for conservation and to assess current threats. Location Ulu Masen Ecosystem in the province of Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam on the island of Sumatra, Indonesia. Methods A stratified survey was conducted at 12 sites (300 transects) to establish the presence of elephants. Presence records formed the basis to model potential habitat use. Ecological niche factor analysis (ENFA) is used to describe their niche and to identify key factors shaping elephant distribution. An initial niche model was constructed to describe elephant niche structure, and a second model focused on identifying core areas only. To assess the threat of habitat encroachment, overlap between the elephants’ optimal niche and the occurrence of forest encroachment is computed. Results Elephants were recorded throughout the study area from sea level to 1600 m a.s.l. The results show that the elephant niche and consequently habitat use markedly deviates from the available environment. Elephant presence was positively related to forest cover and vegetation productivity, and elephants were largely confined to valleys. A spatially explicit model showed that elephants mainly utilize forest edges. Forest encroachment occurs throughout the elephants range and was found within 80% of the elephants’ ecological niche. Main conclusions In contrast to general opinion, elephant distribution proved to be weakly constrained by altitude, possibly because of movement routes running through mountainous areas. Elephants were often found to occupy habitat patches in and near human‐dominated areas. This pattern is believed to reflect the displacement of elephants from their former habitat.     

Diapause and bet-hedging strategies in insects: a meta-analysis of reaction norm shapes

Many organisms escape from lethal climatological conditions by entering a resistant resting stage called diapause, which needs to be optimally timed with seasonal change. As climate change exerts selection pressure on phenology, the evolution of mean diapause timing, but also of phenotypic plasticity and bet-hedging strategies is expected. The potential of the latter strategy as a means of coping with environmental unpredictability has received little attention in the climate change literature. Populations should be adapted to spatial variation in local conditions; contemporary patterns of phenological strategies across a geographic range may hence provide information about their evolvability. We thus extracted 458 diapause reaction norms from 60 studies. First, we correlated mean diapause timing with mean winter onset. Then we partitioned the reaction norm variance into a temporal component (phenotypic plasticity) and among-offspring variance (diversified bet-hedging) and correlated this variance composition with variability of winter onset. Mean diapause timing correlated reasonably well with mean winter onset, except for populations at high latitudes, which apparently failed to track early onsets. Variance among offspring was, however, limited and correlated only weakly with environmental variability, indicating little scope for bet-hedging. The apparent lack of phenological bet-hedging strategies may pose a risk in a less predictable climate, but we also highlight the need for more data on alternative strategies.     

Adolescent fertility and risky environments: a population-level perspective across the lifespan

Timing of first reproduction is a key life-history variable with important implications for global economic development and health. Life-history theory predicts that human reproductive strategies are shaped by mortality regimes. This study provides the first test of the relationship between population-level adolescent fertility (AF) and extrinsic risk at two time points. Data are from United Nations database and were analysed using mediation and moderation techniques. The goals were to determine whether (i) early risk has a stronger impact on fertility than current risk; (ii) current risk mediates the relationship between early risk and fertility outcomes; and (iii) different levels of early risk influence the relationship between current risk and fertility. Results indicated that current risk partially mediated the relationship between early risk and fertility, with early risk having the strongest impact on reproduction. Measures for early and current mortality did not show significant interaction effects. However, a series of separate regression analyses using a quantile split of early risk indicated that high levels of early risk strengthened the relationship between current risk and AF. Overall, these findings demonstrate that reproductive strategies are significantly influenced by fluctuations of early mortality as well as current environmental cues of harshness.     

Linear analysis solves two puzzles in population dynamics: the route to extinction and extinction in coloured environments

In this paper, we give simple explanations to two unsolved puzzles that have emerged in recent theoretical studies in population dynamics. First, the tendency of some model populations to go extinct from high population densities, and second, the positive effect of autocorrelated environments on extinction risks for some model populations. Both phenomena are given general explanations by simple, linear, sto-chastic models. We emphasize the predictive and explanatory power of such models.