Identification of glacial refugia in south-eastern North America by phylogeographical analyses of a forest understorey plant, Trillium cuneatum

Aim We examine several hypotheses emerging from biogeographical and fossil records regarding glacial refugia of a southern thermophilic plant species. Specifically, we investigated the glacial history and post‐glacial colonization of a forest understorey species, Trillium cuneatum. We focused on the following questions: (1) Did T. cuneatum survive the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in multiple refugia, and (if so) where were they located, and is the modern genetic structure congruent with the fossil record‐based reconstruction of refugia for mesic deciduous forests? (2) What are the post‐glacial colonization patterns in the present geographical range? Location South‐eastern North America. Methods We sampled 45 populations of T. cuneatum throughout its current range. We conducted phylogeographical analyses based on maternally inherited chloroplast DNA (cpDNA haplotypes) and used TCS software to reconstruct intraspecific phylogeny. Results We detected six cpDNA haplotypes, geographically highly structured into non‐overlapping areas. With one exception, none of the populations had mixed haplotype composition. TCS analysis resulted in two intraspecific cpDNA lineages, with one clade subdivided further by shallower diversification. Main conclusions Our investigation revealed that T. cuneatum survived the LGM in multiple refugia, belonging to two (western, eastern) genealogical lineages geographically structured across south‐eastern North America. The western clade is confined to the south‐western corner of T. cuneatum’s modern range along the Lower Mississippi Valley, where fossil records document a major refugium of mesic deciduous forest. For the eastern clade, modern patterns of cpDNA haplotype distribution suggest cryptic vicariance, in the form of forest contractions and subsequent expansions associated with Pleistocene glacial cycles, rather than simple southern survival and subsequent northward colonization. The north–south partitioning of cpDNA haplotypes was unexpected, suggesting that populations of this rather southern thermophilic species may have survived in more northern locations than initially expected based on LGM climate reconstruction, and that the Appalachian Mountains functioned as a barrier to the dispersal of propagules originating in more southern refugia. Furthermore, our results reveal south‐west to north‐east directionality in historical migration through the Valley and Ridge region of north‐west Georgia.     

Postglacial colonization of Europe by the barbastelle bat: agreement between molecular data and past predictive modelling

The barbastelle (Barbastella barbastellus) is a rare forest bat with a wide distribution in Europe. Here, we combine results from the analysis of two mtDNA fragments with species distribution modelling to determine glacial refugia and postglacial colonization routes. We also investigated whether niche conservatism occurs in this species. Glacial refugia were identified in the three southern European peninsulas: Iberia, Italy and the Balkans. These latter two refugia played a major role in the postglacial colonization process, with their populations expanding to England and central Europe, respectively. Palaeo‐distribution models predicted that suitable climatic conditions existed in the inferred refugia during the last glacial maximum (LGM). Nevertheless, the overlap between the current and the LGM distributions was almost inexistent in Italy and in the Balkans, meaning that B. barbastellus populations were forced to shift range between glacial and interglacial periods, a process that probably caused some local extinctions. In contrast, Iberian populations showed a ‘refugia within refugium’ pattern, with two unconnected areas containing stable populations (populations that subsisted during both glacial and interglacial phases). Moreover, the match between LGM models and the refugial areas determined by molecular analysis supported the hypothesis of niche conservatism in B. barbastellus. We argue that geographic patterns of genetic structuring, altogether with the modelling results, indicate the existence of four management units for conservation: Morocco, Iberia, Italy and UK, and Balkans and central Europe. In addition, all countries sampled possessed unique gene pools, thus stressing the need for the conservation of local populations.     

Maternal genomic variability of the wild boar (Sus scrofa) reveals the uniqueness of East‐Caucasian and Central Italian populations

The phylogeography of the European wild boar was mainly determined by postglacial recolonization patterns from Mediterranean refugia after the last ice age. Here we present the first analysis of SNP polymorphism within the complete mtDNA genome of West Russian (n = 8), European (n = 64), and North African (n = 5) wild boar. Our analyses provided evidence of unique lineages in the East‐Caucasian (Dagestan) region and in Central Italy. A phylogenetic analysis revealed that these lineages are basal to the other European mtDNA sequences. We also show close connection between the Western Siberian and Eastern European populations. Also, the North African samples were clustered with the Iberian population. Phylogenetic trees and migration modeling revealed a high proximity of Dagestan sequences to those of Central Italy and suggested possible gene flow between Western Asia and Southern Europe which was not directly related to Northern and Central European lineages. Our results support the presence of old maternal lineages in two Southern glacial refugia (i.e., Caucasus and the Italian peninsula), as a legacy of an ancient wave of colonization of Southern Europe from an Eastern origin.     

Distributional and demographic consequences of Pleistocene climate fluctuations for a marine demersal fish in the north-eastern Atlantic

Aim The Pleistocene glaciations were the most significant historical event during the evolutionary life span of most extant species. However, little is known about the consequences of these climate changes for the distribution and demography of marine animals of the north‐eastern Atlantic. The present study focuses on the phylogeographic and demographic patterns of the sand goby, Pomatoschistus minutus (Teleostei: Gobiidae), a small marine demersal fish. Location North‐eastern Atlantic, Mediterranean, Irish, North and Baltic seas. Methods Analysis was carried out by sequencing the mtDNA cytochrome b gene of sand gobies from 12 localities throughout the species’ range, and using this information in combination with published data of allozyme markers and mtDNA control region sequences. Several phylogenetic methods and a network analysis were used to explore the phylogeographic pattern. The historical demography of P. minutus was studied through a mismatch analysis and a Bayesian skyline plot. Results Reciprocal monophyly was found between a Mediterranean Sea (MS) clade and an Atlantic Ocean (AO) clade, both with a Middle Pleistocene origin. The AO Clade contains two evolutionary significant units (ESUs): the Iberian Peninsula (IB) Group and the North Atlantic (NA) Group. These two groups diverged during Middle Pleistocene glacial cycles. For the NA Group there is evidence for geographic sorting of the ancestral haplotypes with recent radiations in the Baltic Sea, Irish Sea, North Sea and Bay of Biscay. The demographic histories of the Mediterranean Clade and the two Atlantic ESUs were influenced mainly by expansions dated as occurring during the Middle Pleistocene glaciations and post‐Eem, respectively. Main conclusions The pre‐LGM (Last Glacial Maximum) subdivision signals were not erased for P. minutus during the LGM. Middle Pleistocene glaciations yielded isolated and differently evolving sets of populations. In contrast to the case for most other taxa, only the northern Atlantic group contributed to the post‐glacial recolonization. The historical demography of Mediterranean sand gobies was influenced mainly by Middle Pleistocene glaciations, in contrast to that of the Atlantic populations, which was shaped by Late Pleistocene expansions.     

Phylogeography and postglacial recolonization of Europe by Rhinolophus hipposideros: evidence from multiple genetic markers

The demographic history of Rhinolophus hipposideros (lesser horseshoe bat) was reconstructed across its European, North African and Middle‐Eastern distribution prior to, during and following the most recent glaciations by generating and analysing a multimarker data set. This data set consisted of an X‐linked nuclear intron (Bgn; 543 bp), mitochondrial DNA (cytb‐tRNA‐control region; 1630 bp) and eight variable microsatellite loci for up to 373 individuals from 86 localities. Using this data set of diverse markers, it was possible to determine the species’ demography at three temporal stages. Nuclear intron data revealed early colonization into Europe from the east, which pre‐dates the Quaternary glaciations. The mtDNA data supported multiple glacial refugia across the Mediterranean, the largest of which were found in the Ibero‐Maghreb region and an eastern location (Anatolia/Middle East)–that were used by R. hipposideros during the most recent glacial cycles. Finally, microsatellites provided the most recent information on these species’ movements since the Last Glacial Maximum and suggested that lineages that had diverged into glacial refugia, such as in the Ibero‐Maghreb region, have remained isolated. These findings should be used to inform future conservation management strategies for R. hipposideros and show the power of using a multimarker data set for phylogeographic studies.     

Identification of winter moth (Operophtera brumata) refugia in North Africa and the Italian Peninsula during the last glacial maximum

Numerous studies have shown that the genetic diversity of species inhabiting temperate regions has been shaped by changes in their distributions during the Quaternary climatic oscillations. For some species, the genetic distinctness of isolated populations is maintained during secondary contact, while for others, admixture is frequently observed. For the winter moth (Operophtera brumata), an important defoliator of oak forests across Europe and northern Africa, we previously determined that contemporary populations correspond to genetic diversity obtained during the last glacial maximum (LGM) through the use of refugia in the Iberian and Aegean peninsulas, and to a lesser extent the Caucasus region. Missing from this sampling were populations from the Italian peninsula and from North Africa, both regions known to have played important roles as glacial refugia for other species. Therefore, we genotyped field‐collected winter moth individuals from southern Italy and northwestern Tunisia—the latter a region where severe oak forest defoliation by winter moth has recently been reported—using polymorphic microsatellite. We reconstructed the genetic relationships of these populations in comparison to moths previously sampled from the Iberian and Aegean peninsulas, the Caucasus region, and western Europe using genetic distance, Bayesian clustering, and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods. Our results indicate that both the southern Italian and the Tunisian populations are genetically distinct from other sampled populations, and likely originated in their respective refugium during the LGM after diverging from a population that eventually settled in the Iberian refugium. These suggest that winter moth populations persisted in at least five Mediterranean LGM refugia. Finally, we comment that outbreaks by winter moth in northwestern Tunisia are not the result of a recent introduction of a nonnative species, but rather are most likely due to land use or environmental changes.     

Contrasting genetic patterns between two coexisting Eleutherococcus species in northern China

Climate oscillations are the key factors to understand the patterns in modern biodiversity. East Asia harbors the most diverse temperate flora, largely because an extensive terrestrial ice cap was absent during repeated Pleistocene glaciation–interglacial cycles. Comparing the demographic histories of species that are codistributed and are close relatives may provide insight into how the process of climate change influences species ranges. In this study, we compared the spatial genetic structure and demographic histories of two coexisting Eleutherococcus species, Eleutherococcus senticosus and E. sessiliflorus. Both species are distributed in northern China, regions that are generally considered to be sensitive to climatic fluctuations. These regions once hosted temperate forest, but this temperate forest was replaced by tundra and taiga forest during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), according to pollen records. Using three chloroplast DNA fragments, we assessed the genetic structure of 20 and 9 natural populations of E. senticosus and E. sessiliflorus, respectively. Extremely contrasting genetic patterns were found between the two species; E. sessiliflorus had little genetic variation, whereas E. senticosus had considerably higher levels of genetic variation (15 haplotypes). We speculated that a recent severe bottleneck may have resulted in the extremely low genetic diversity in E. sessiliflorus. In E. senticosus, populations in Northeast China (NEC) harbored all of the haplotypes found in this species and included private haplotypes. The populations in NEC had higher levels of genetic diversity than did those from North China (NC). Therefore, we suggest that both the NC and NEC regions can sustain LGM refugia and that lineage admixture from multiple refugia took place after the LGM elevated the local genetic diversity in NEC. In NEC, multiple genetic hot spots were found in the Changbai Mountains and the Xiaoxing'an Range, which implied that multiple locations in NEC may sustain LGM refugia, even in the Xiaoxing'an Range.     

Phylogeography and palaeodistribution modelling of Nassauvia subgenus Strongyloma (Asteraceae): exploring phylogeographical scenarios in the Patagonian steppe

The Patagonian steppe is an immense, cold, arid region, yet phylogeographically understudied. Nassauvia subgen. Strongyloma is a characteristic element of the steppe, exhibiting a continuum of morphological variation. This taxon provides a relevant phylogeographical model not only to understand how past environmental changes shaped the genetic structure of its populations, but also to explore phylogeographical scenarios at the large geographical scale of the Patagonian steppe. Here, we (1) assess demographic processes and historical events that shaped current geographic patterns of haplotypic diversity; (2) analyze hypotheses of isolation in refugia, fragmentation of populations, and/or colonization of available areas during Pleistocene glaciations; and (3) model extant and palaeoclimatic distributions to support inferred phylogeographical patterns. Chloroplast intergenic spacers, rpl32–trnL and trnQ–5′rps16, were sequenced for 372 individuals from 63 populations. Nested clade analysis, analyses of molecular variance, and neutrality tests were performed to assess genetic structure and range expansion. The present potential distribution was modelled and projected onto a last glacial maximum (LGM) model. Of 41 haplotypes observed, ten were shared among populations associated with different morphological variants. Populations with highest haplotype diversity and private haplotypes were found in central‐western and south‐eastern Patagonia, consistent with long‐term persistence in refugia during Pleistocene. Palaeomodelling suggested a shift toward the palaeoseashore during LGM; new available areas over the exposed Atlantic submarine platform were colonized during glaciations with postglacial retraction of populations. A scenario of fragmentation and posterior range expansion may explain the observed patterns in the center of the steppe, which is supported by palaeomodelling. Northern Patagonian populations were isolated from southern populations by the Chubut and the Deseado river basins during glaciations. Pleistocene glaciations indirectly impacted the distribution, demography, and diversification of subgen. Strongyloma through decreased winter temperatures and water availability in different areas of its range.     

Colonization of the Mediterranean basin by the vector biting midge species Culicoides imicola: an old story

Understanding the demographic history and genetic make‐up of colonizing species is critical for inferring population sources and colonization routes. This is of main interest for designing accurate control measures in areas newly colonized by vector species of economically important pathogens. The biting midge Culicoides imicola is a major vector of orbiviruses to livestock. Historically, the distribution of this species was limited to the Afrotropical region. Entomological surveys first revealed the presence of C. imicola in the south of the Mediterranean basin by the 1970s. Following recurrent reports of massive bluetongue outbreaks since the 1990s, the presence of the species was confirmed in northern areas. In this study, we addressed the chronology and processes of C. imicola colonization in the Mediterranean basin. We characterized the genetic structure of its populations across Mediterranean and African regions using both mitochondrial and nuclear markers, and combined phylogeographical analyses with population genetics and approximate Bayesian computation. We found a west/east genetic differentiation between populations, occurring both within Africa and within the Mediterranean basin. We demonstrated that three of these groups had experienced demographic expansions in the Pleistocene, probably because of climate changes during this period. Finally, we showed that C. imicola could have colonized the Mediterranean basin in the Late Pleistocene or Early Holocene through a single event of introduction; however, we cannot exclude the hypothesis involving two routes of colonization. Thus, the recent bluetongue outbreaks are not linked to C. imicola colonization event, but rather to biological changes in the vector or the virus.     

Out of Anatolia: longitudinal gradients in genetic diversity support an eastern origin for a circum-Mediterranean oak gallwasp Andricus quercustozae

Many studies have addressed the latitudinal gradients in intraspecific genetic diversity of European taxa generated during postglacial range expansion from southern refugia. Although Asia Minor is known to be a centre of diversity for many taxa, relatively few studies have considered its potential role as a Pleistocene refugium or a potential source for more ancient westward range expansion into Europe. Here we address these issues for an oak gallwasp, Andricus quercustozae (Hymenoptera: Cynipidae), whose distribution extends from Morocco along the northern coast of the Mediterranean through Turkey to Iran. We use sequence data for a fragment of the mitochondrial gene cytochrome b and allele frequency data for 12 polymorphic allozyme loci to answer the following questions: (1) which regions represent current centres of genetic diversity for A. quercustozae? Do eastern populations represent one refuge or several discrete glacial refugia? (2) Can we infer the timescale and sequence of the colonization processes linking current centres of diversity? Our results suggest that A. quercustozae was present in five distinct refugia (Iberia, Italy, the Balkans, southwestern Turkey and northeastern Turkey) with recent genetic exchange between Italy and Hungary. Genetic diversity is greatest in the Turkish refugia, suggesting that European populations are either (a) derived from Asia Minor, or (b) subject to more frequent population bottlenecks. Although Iberian populations show the lowest diversity for putatively selectively neutral markers, they have colonized a new oak host and represent a genetically and biologically discrete entity within the species.     

Phylogeography and historical demography of the Italian treefrog, Hyla intermedia, reveals multiple refugia, population expansions and secondary contacts within peninsular Italy

We investigated the geographical patterns of genetic diversity in the Italian treefrog through sequence analysis of a mitochondrial cytochrome b gene fragment. Three main mitochondrial lineages were identified, distributed in northern, central and southern Italy, respectively. Their divergence appears indicative of a split time largely predating Late Pleistocene climatic oscillations, and syntopy between them was only observed in the geographically intermediate populations. The historical demographic reconstructions suggest that in both northern and central Italy, an expansion occurred during the last major glacial phase, when a vast widening of the lowland habitats followed the glaciation-induced fall of the sea level. Instead, in southern Italy an expansion event likely followed the end of the last glaciation, although the inference of expansion appears less reliable for the southern clade than for the others. Within this geographical area, a sharp phylogeographic discontinuity separated peninsular from Sicilian populations, and the overall pattern of diversity suggests that the latter derived from a recent colonization of the island, probably through a Late Pleistocene land bridge. Phylogenetic, phylogeographic and historical demographic analyses thus concur in delineating a scenario of multiple refugia, with four groups of populations which survived the last glacial-interglacial cycles in at least three distinct refugia arranged along peninsular Italy, and have recently come into contact following range expansions. Therefore, these results support the hypothesis that a plethora of microevolutionary processes, rather than the prolonged stability of populations, were mainly responsible for shaping the patterns of diversity within this major biodiversity hotspot.     

Late‐glacial recolonization and phylogeography of European red deer (Cervus elaphus L.)

The Pleistocene was an epoch of extreme climatic and environmental changes. How individual species responded to the repeated cycles of warm and cold stages is a major topic of debate. For the European fauna and flora, an expansion–contraction model has been suggested, whereby temperate species were restricted to southern refugia during glacial times and expanded northwards during interglacials, including the present interglacial (Holocene). Here, we test this model on the red deer (Cervus elaphus) a large and highly mobile herbivore, using both modern and ancient mitochondrial DNA from the entire European range of the species over the last c. 40 000 years. Our results indicate that this species was sensitive to the effects of climate change. Prior to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) haplogroups restricted today to South‐East Europe and Western Asia reached as far west as the UK. During the LGM, red deer was mainly restricted to southern refugia, in Iberia, the Balkans and possibly in Italy and South‐Western Asia. At the end of the LGM, red deer expanded from the Iberian refugium, to Central and Northern Europe, including the UK, Belgium, Scandinavia, Germany, Poland and Belarus. Ancient DNA data cannot rule out refugial survival of red deer in North‐West Europe through the LGM. Had such deer survived, though, they were replaced by deer migrating from Iberia at the end of the glacial. The Balkans served as a separate LGM refugium and were probably connected to Western Asia with genetic exchange between the two areas.     

Species distribution modeling and molecular markers suggest longitudinal range shifts and cryptic northern refugia of the typical calcareous grassland species Hippocrepis comosa (horseshoe vetch)

Calcareous grasslands belong to the most diverse, endangered habitats in Europe, but there is still insufficient information about the origin of the plant species related to these grasslands. In order to illuminate this question, we chose for our study the representative grassland species Hippocrepis comosa (Horseshoe vetch). Based on species distribution modeling and molecular markers, we identified the glacial refugia and the postglacial migration routes of the species to Central Europe. We clearly demonstrate that H. comosa followed a latitudinal and due to its oceanity also a longitudinal gradient during the last glacial maximum (LGM), restricting the species to southern refugia situated on the Peninsulas of Iberia, the Balkans, and Italy during the last glaciation. However, we also found evidence for cryptic northern refugia in the UK, the Alps, and Central Germany. Both species distribution modeling and molecular markers underline that refugia of temperate, oceanic species such as H. comosa must not be exclusively located in southern but also in western of parts of Europe. The analysis showed a distinct separation of the southern refugia into a western cluster embracing Iberia and an eastern group including the Balkans and Italy, which determined the postglacial recolonization of Central Europe. At the end of the LGM, H. comosa seems to have expanded from the Iberian refugium, to Central and Northern Europe, including the UK, Belgium, and Germany.     

Evolutionary history of the little fire ant Wasmannia auropunctata before global invasion: inferring dispersal patterns,niche requirements and past and present distribution within its native range

The evolutionary history of invasive species within their native range may involve key processes that allow them to colonize new habitats. Therefore, phylogeographic studies of invasive species within their native ranges are useful to understand invasion biology in an evolutionary context. Here we integrated classical and Bayesian phylogeographic methods using mitochondrial and nuclear DNA markers with a palaeodistribution modelling approach, to infer the phylogeographic history of the invasive ant Wasmannia auropunctata across its native distribution in South America. We discuss our results in the context of the recent establishment of this mostly tropical species in the Mediterranean region. Our Bayesian phylogeographic analysis suggests that the common ancestor of the two main clades of W. auropunctata occurred in central Brazil during the Pliocene. Clade A would have differentiated northward and clade B southward, followed by a secondary contact beginning about 380 000 years ago in central South America. There were differences in the most suitable habitats among clades when considering three distinct climatic periods, suggesting that genetic differentiation was accompanied by changes in niche requirements, clade A being a tropical lineage and clade B a subtropical and temperate lineage. Only clade B reached more southern latitudes, with a colder climate than that of northern South America. This is concordant with the adaptation of this originally tropical ant species to temperate climates prior to its successful establishment in the Mediterranean region. This study highlights the usefulness of exploring the evolutionary history of invasive species within their native ranges to better understand biological invasions.     

Genomic signature of successful colonization of Eurasia by the allopolyploid shepherd's purse (Capsella bursa‐pastoris)

Polyploidization is a dominant feature of flowering plant evolution. However, detailed genomic analyses of the interpopulation diversification of polyploids following genome duplication are still in their infancy, mainly because of methodological limits, both in terms of sequencing and computational analyses. The shepherd's purse (Capsella bursa‐pastoris) is one of the most common weed species in the world. It is highly self‐fertilizing, and recent genomic data indicate that it is an allopolyploid, resulting from hybridization between the ancestors of the diploid species Capsella grandiflora and Capsella orientalis. Here, we investigated the genomic diversity of C. bursa‐pastoris, its population structure and demographic history, following allopolyploidization in Eurasia. To that end, we genotyped 261 C. bursa‐pastoris accessions spread across Europe, the Middle East and Asia, using genotyping‐by‐sequencing, leading to a total of 4274 SNPs after quality control. Bayesian clustering analyses revealed three distinct genetic clusters in Eurasia: one cluster grouping samples from Western Europe and Southeastern Siberia, the second one centred on Eastern Asia and the third one in the Middle East. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) supported the hypothesis that C. bursa‐pastoris underwent a typical colonization history involving low gene flow among colonizing populations, likely starting from the Middle East towards Europe and followed by successive human‐mediated expansions into Eastern Asia. Altogether, these findings bring new insights into the recent multistage colonization history of the allotetraploid C. bursa‐pastoris and highlight ABC and genotyping‐by‐sequencing data as promising but still challenging tools to infer demographic histories of selfing allopolyploids.     

Mitochondrial DNA of pre‐last glacial maximum red deer from NW Spain suggests a more complex phylogeographical history for the species

The major climatic oscillations that characterized the Quaternary had a great influence on the evolution and distribution of several species. During cold periods, the distribution of temperate‐adapted species became fragmented with many surviving in southern refugia (Iberian, Italian, and Balkan Peninsulas). Red deer was one of the species that contracted its original range to southern refugia. Currently, two main lineages have been described for the species: western and eastern. We have analyzed fossils pre‐dating the last glacial maximum (LGM) from Liñares cave (NW Spain) that belongs to the peripheral range of the western clade, and fossils from the Danish Holocene belonging to the central part of the same clade. Phylogenetic analyses place our samples in the western clade. However, some specimens from Liñares represent an early split in the tree along with other pre‐LGM western samples from previous studies. Despite low bootstrap values in the Bayesian phylogenies, haplotype networks connect these foreign haplotypes to the eastern clade. We suggest a mixed phylogeographical model to explain this pattern with range expansions from the east during the expansion phase after the cold periods in marine isotope stage 3. We find slight isolation by distance in post‐LGM populations that could be a consequence of the recolonization from southern refugia after the LGM.     

Multiple glacial refugia for cool‐temperate deciduous trees in northern East Asia: the Mongolian oak as a case study

In East Asia, temperate forests are predicted to have retracted southward to c. 30° N during the last glacial maximum (LGM) based on fossil pollen data, whereas phylogeographic studies have often suggested glacial in situ survival of cool‐temperate deciduous trees in their modern northern ranges. Here we report a study of the genetic diversity and structure of 29 natural Mongolian oak (Quercus mongolica) populations using 19 nuclear simple sequence repeat (nSSR) loci and four chloroplast DNA fragments. Bayesian clustering analysis with nSSRs revealed five groups, which were inferred by approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to have diverged in multiple refugia through multiple glacial–interglacial cycles. Analysis of chloroplast DNA variation revealed four lineages that were largely but incompletely geographically disjunct. Ecological niche modelling (ENMs) indicated a southward range shift of the oak's distribution at the LGM, although high suitability scores were also evident in the Changbai Mts. (Northeast China), the Korean Peninsula, areas surrounding the Bohai Sea, and along the coast of the Russian Far East. In addition, endemic chloroplast DNA haplotypes and nuclear lineages occurred in high‐latitude northern areas where the ENM predicted no suitable habitat. The combined evidence from nuclear and chloroplast DNA, and the results of the ENM clearly demonstrate that multiple northern refugia, including cryptic ones, were maintained across the current distributional range of the Mongolian oak during the LGM or earlier glacial periods. Though spatially limited, postglacial expansions from these refugia have led to a pattern of decreased genetic diversity with increasing latitude.     

Distribution of the Eastern knapweed fritillary (Melitaea ornata Christoph, 1893) (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae): past, present and future

Climatic change during the Quaternary resulted in periodical range restrictions and expansions in most temperate species. Although some repetitive patterns have been supported, it became obvious that species’ responses might be rather specific and may also depend on habitat preferences of the species in question. Distribution of Melitaea ornata, a little known fritillary species is analysed on different time scales using MaxEnt software. Using the results of genitalia morphometry and the predicted potential refugia during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), we reconstructed probable re-colonisation routes. We also predicted changes in the potential area for 2080. The present distribution fits well the known occurrence data except for the Iberian Peninsula and North-Africa where the species is missing. Based on our predictions, temperate areas seem to be less suitable for the species. We proposed two hypotheses to explain this pattern: a less probable recent extinction from Iberia and a more supported historical explanation. Predicted distribution during the LGM mainly fits to widely accepted refugia. Europe was probably re-colonised from two main sources, from the Apennine peninsula and from the Balkans which was probably connected to the Anatolian refugia. Populations of the Levant region and in the Elburs Mts. do not show any significant expansion. Further studies are necessary in the case of the predicted Central Asian refugia. Predictions for 2080 show a northward shift and some extinction events in the Mediterranean region. Core areas are identified which might have a potential for expansion including southern Russia, Hungary and possibly Provence in France. Predicted northward area shifts are only possible if the potential leading edge populations and habitats of the species can be preserved.     

Postglacial colonisation patterns and the role of isolation and expansion in driving diversification in a passerine bird

Pleistocene glacial cycles play a major role in diversification and speciation, although the relative importance of isolation and expansion in driving diversification remains debated. We analysed mitochondrial DNA sequence data from 15 great reed warbler (Acrocephalus arundinaceus) populations distributed over the vast Eurasian breeding range of the species, and revealed unexpected postglacial expansion patterns from two glacial refugia. There were 58 different haplotypes forming two major clades, A and B. Clade A dominated in Western Europe with declining frequencies towards Eastern Europe and the Middle East, but showed a surprising increase in frequency in Western and Central Asia. Clade B dominated in the Middle East, with declining frequencies towards north in Central and Eastern Europe and was absent from Western Europe and Central Asia. A parsimonious explanation for these patterns is independent postglacial expansions from two isolated refugia, and mismatch distribution analyses confirmed this suggestion. Gene flow analyses showed that clade A colonised both Europe and Asia from a refugium in Europe, and that clade B expanded much later and colonised parts of Europe from a refugium in the Middle East. Great reed warblers in the eastern parts of the range have slightly paler plumage than western birds (sometimes treated as separate subspecies; A. a. zarudnyi and A. a. arundinaceus, respectively) and our results suggest that the plumage diversification took place during the easterly expansion of clade A. This supports the postglacial expansion hypothesis proposing that postglacial expansions drive diversification in comparatively short time periods. However, there is no indication of any (strong) reproductive isolation between clades and our data show that the refugia populations became separated during the last glaciation. This is in line with the Pleistocene speciation hypothesis invoking that much longer periods of time in isolation are needed for speciation to occur.