Eco‐evolution on the edge during climate change

We urgently need to predict species responses to climate change to minimize future biodiversity loss and ensure we do not waste limited resources on ineffective conservation strategies. Currently, most predictions of species responses to climate change ignore the potential for evolution. However, evolution can alter species ecological responses, and different aspects of evolution and ecology can interact to produce complex eco‐evolutionary dynamics under climate change. Here we review how evolution could alter ecological responses to climate change on species warm and cool range margins, where evolution could be especially important. We discuss different aspects of evolution in isolation, and then synthesize results to consider how multiple evolutionary processes might interact and affect conservation strategies. On species cool range margins, the evolution of dispersal could increase range expansion rates and allow species to adapt to novel conditions in their new range. However, low genetic variation and genetic drift in small range‐front populations could also slow or halt range expansions. Together, these eco‐evolutionary effects could cause a three‐step, stop‐and‐go expansion pattern for many species. On warm range margins, isolation among populations could maintain high genetic variation that facilitates evolution to novel climates and allows species to persist longer than expected without evolution. This ‘evolutionary extinction debt’ could then prevent other species from shifting their ranges. However, as climate change increases isolation among populations, increasing dispersal mortality could select for decreased dispersal and cause rapid range contractions. Some of these eco‐evolutionary dynamics could explain why many species are not responding to climate change as predicted. We conclude by suggesting that resurveying historical studies that measured trait frequencies, the strength of selection, or heritabilities could be an efficient way to increase our eco‐evolutionary knowledge in climate change biology.     

Genomic and phenomic analysis of island ant community assembly

Island biodiversity has long fascinated biologists as it typically presents tractable systems for unpicking the eco‐evolutionary processes driving community assembly. In general, two recurring themes are of central theoretical interest. First, immigration, diversification, and extinction typically depend on island geographical properties (e.g., area, isolation, and age). Second, predictable ecological and evolutionary trajectories readily occur after colonization, such as the evolution of adaptive trait syndromes, trends toward specialization, adaptive radiation, and eventual ecological decline. Hypotheses such as the taxon cycle draw on several of these themes to posit particular constraints on colonization and subsequent eco‐evolutionary dynamics. However, it has been challenging to examine these integrated dynamics with traditional methods. Here, we combine phylogenomics, population genomics and phenomics, to unravel community assembly dynamics among Pheidole (Hymenoptera, Formicidae) ants in the isolated Fijian archipelago. We uphold basic island biogeographic predictions that isolated islands accumulate diversity primarily through in situ evolution rather than dispersal, and population genomic support for taxon cycle predictions that endemic species have decreased dispersal ability and demography relative to regionally widespread taxa. However, rather than trending toward island syndromes, ecomorphological diversification in Fiji was intense, filling much of the genus‐level global morphospace. Furthermore, while most endemic species exhibit demographic decline and reduced dispersal, we show that the archipelago is not an evolutionary dead‐end. Rather, several endemic species show signatures of population and range expansion, including a successful colonization to the Cook islands. These results shed light on the processes shaping island biotas and refine our understanding of island biogeographic theory.     

The virtues and limitations of exploring the eco‐evolutionary dynamics of sexually selected traits

Most studies on eco‐evolutionary feedbacks concern the influence of abiotic factors, or predator–prey and host–parasite interactions, while studies involving sexual interactions are lagging behind. This is at odds with the potential of these interactions to engage in such processes. Indeed, there is now ample evidence that sexual selection is affected by ecological change and that sexually selected traits can evolve rapidly, which may modify the ecological context of populations, and thus the selection pressures they will be exposed to. Here we review evidence for such eco‐evolutionary processes. We discuss examples of eco‐evolutionary change in an attempt to understand the challenges related with identifying and characterizing such processes. In particular, we focus on the challenges associated with accurately identifying the components of the feedback as well as their causal relation. Finally, we evaluate scenarios where understanding eco‐evolutionary feedbacks of sexual selection may help us appreciate the effects of sexual selection in shaping evolutionary processes.     

The implications of rapid eco‐evolutionary processes for biological control ‐ a review

Novel environmental conditions experienced by introduced species can drive rapid evolution of diverse traits. In turn, rapid evolution, both adaptive and non‐adaptive, can influence population size, growth rate, and other important ecological characteristics of populations. In addition, spatial evolutionary processes that arise from a combination of assortative mating between highly dispersive individuals at the expanding edge of populations and altered reproductive rates of those individuals can accelerate expansion speed. Growing experimental evidence shows that the effects of rapid evolution on ecological dynamics can be quite large, and thus it can affect establishment, persistence, and the distribution of populations. We review the experimental and theoretical literature on such eco‐evolutionary feedbacks and evaluate the implications of these processes for biological control. Experiments show that evolving populations can establish at higher rates and grow larger than non‐evolving populations. However, non‐adaptive processes, such as genetic drift and inbreeding depression can also lead to reduced fitness and declines in population size. Spatial evolutionary processes can increase spread rates and change the fitness of individuals at the expansion front. These examples demonstrate the power of eco‐evolutionary dynamics and indicate that evolution is likely more important in biocontrol programs than previously realized. We discuss how this knowledge can be used to enhance efficacy of biological control.     

Eco‐evolutionary dynamics in restored communities and ecosystems

Recent ecological studies have revealed that rapid evolution within populations can have significant impacts on the ecological dynamics of communities and ecosystems. These eco‐evolutionary dynamics (EED) are likely to have substantial and quantifiable effects in restored habitats over timescales that are relevant for the conservation and restoration of small populations and threatened communities. Restored habitats may serve as “hotspots” for EED due to mismatches between transplanted genotypes and the restored environment, and novel interactions among lineages that do not share a coevolutionary history, both of which can generate strong selection for rapid evolutionary change that has immediate demographic consequences. Rapid evolution that influences population dynamics and community processes is likely to have particularly large effects during the establishment phase of restoration efforts. Finally, restoration activities and their associated long‐term monitoring programs provide outstanding opportunities for using eco‐evolutionary experimental approaches. Results from such studies will address questions about the effects of rapid evolutionary change on the ecological dynamics of populations and interacting species, while simultaneously providing critical, but currently overlooked, information for conservation practices.     

Eco‐evolutionary partitioning metrics: assessing the importance of ecological and evolutionary contributions to population and community change

Interest in eco‐evolutionary dynamics is rapidly increasing thanks to ground‐breaking research indicating that evolution can occur rapidly and can alter the outcome of ecological processes. A key challenge in this sub‐discipline is establishing how important the contribution of evolutionary and ecological processes and their interactions are to observed shifts in population and community characteristics. Although a variety of metrics to separate and quantify the effects of evolutionary and ecological contributions to observed trait changes have been used, they often allocate fractions of observed changes to ecology and evolution in different ways. We used a mathematical and numerical comparison of two commonly used frameworks – the Price equation and reaction norms – to reveal that the Price equation cannot partition genetic from non‐genetic trait change within lineages, whereas the reaction norm approach cannot partition among‐ from within‐lineage trait change. We developed a new metric that combines the strengths of both Price‐based and reaction norm metrics, extended all metrics to analyse community change and also incorporated extinction and colonisation of species in these metrics. Depending on whether our new metric is applied to populations or communities, it can correctly separate intraspecific, interspecific, evolutionary, non‐evolutionary and interacting eco‐evolutionary contributions to trait change.     

Eco‐evolutionary feedbacks between private and public goods: evidence from toxic algal blooms

The importance of ‘eco‐evolutionary feedbacks’ in natural systems is currently unclear. Here, we advance a general hypothesis for a particular class of eco‐evolutionary feedbacks with potentially large, long‐lasting impacts in complex ecosystems. These eco‐evolutionary feedbacks involve traits that mediate important interactions with abiotic and biotic features of the environment and a self‐driven reversal of selection as the ecological impact of the trait varies between private (small scale) and public (large scale). Toxic algal blooms may involve such eco‐evolutionary feedbacks due to the emergence of public goods. We review evidence that toxin production by microalgae may yield ‘privatised’ benefits for individual cells or colonies under pre‐ and early‐bloom conditions; however, the large‐scale, ecosystem‐level effects of toxicity associated with bloom states yield benefits that are necessarily ‘public’. Theory predicts that the replacement of private with public goods may reverse selection for toxicity in the absence of higher level selection. Indeed, blooms often harbor significant genetic and functional diversity: bloom populations may undergo genetic differentiation over a scale of days, and even genetically similar lineages may vary widely in toxic potential. Intriguingly, these observations find parallels in terrestrial communities, suggesting that toxic blooms may serve as useful models for eco‐evolutionary dynamics in nature. Eco‐evolutionary feedbacks involving the emergence of a public good may shed new light on the potential for interactions between ecology and evolution to influence the structure and function of entire ecosystems.     

Where am I and why? Synthesizing range biology and the eco‐evolutionary dynamics of dispersal

Although generations of researchers have studied the factors that limit the distributions of species, we still do not seem to understand this phenomenon comprehensively. Traditionally, species’ ranges have been seen as the consequence of abiotic conditions and local adaptation to the environment. However, during the last years it has become more and more evident that biotic factors – such as intra‐ and interspecific interactions or the dispersal capacity of species – and even rapidly occurring evolutionary processes can strongly influence the range of a species and its potential to spread to new habitats. Relevant eco‐evolutionary forces can be found at all hierarchical levels: from landscapes to communities via populations, individuals and genes. We here use the metapopulation concept to develop a framework that allows us to synthesize this broad spectrum of different factors. Since species’ ranges are the result of a dynamic equilibrium of colonization and local extinction events, the importance of dispersal is immediately clear. We highlight the complex interrelations and feedbacks between ecological and evolutionary forces that shape dispersal and result in non‐trivial and partially counter‐intuitive range dynamics. Our concept synthesizes current knowledge on range biology and the eco‐evolutionary dynamics of dispersal. Synthesis What factors are responsible for the dynamics of species' ranges? Answering this question has never been more important than today, in the light of rapid environmental changes. Surprisingly, the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of dispersal – which represent the driving forces behind range formation – have rarely been considered in this context. We here present a framework that closes this gap. Dispersal evolution may be responsible for highly complex and non‐trivial range dynamics. In order to understand these, and possibly provide projections of future range positions, it is crucial to take the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of dispersal into account.     

Ecological and evolutionary responses in complex communities: implications for invasions and eco‐evolutionary feedbacks

It is easier to predict the ecological and evolutionary outcomes of interactions in less diverse communities. As species are added to communities, their direct and indirect interactions multiply, their niches may shift, and there may be increased ecological redundancy. Accompanying this complexity in ecological interactions, is also complexity in selection and subsequent evolution, which may feed back to affect the ecology of the system, as species with different traits may play different ecological roles. Drawing from my own work and that of many others, I first discuss what we currently understand about ecology and evolution in light of simple and diverse communities, and suggest the importance of escape from community complexity per se in the success of invaders. Then, I examine how community complexity may influence the nature and magnitude of eco‐evolutionary feedbacks, classifying eco‐evolutionary dynamics into three general types: those generating alternative stable states, cyclic dynamics, and those maintaining ecological stasis and stability. The latter may be important and yet very hard to detect. I suggest future directions, as well as discuss methodological approaches and their potential pitfalls, in assessing the importance and longevity of eco‐evolutionary feedbacks in complex communities. Synthesis The ecology, evolution and eco‐evolutionary dynamics of simple and diverse communities are reviewed. In more diverse communities, direct and indirect interactions multiply, species’ niches often shift, ecological redundancy can increase, and selection may be less directional. Community complexity may influence the magnitude and nature of eco‐evolutionary dynamics, which are classified into three types: those generating alternative stable states, cyclic dynamics, and those maintaining ecological stasis and stability. Strengths and pitfalls of approaches to investigating eco‐evolutionary feedbacks in complex field communities are discussed.     

Finding answers in the dark: caves as models in ecology fifty years after Poulson and White

The use of semi‐isolated habitats such as oceanic islands, lakes and mountain summits as model systems has played a crucial role in the development of evolutionary and ecological theory. Soon after the discovery of life in caves, different pioneering authors similarly recognized the great potential of these peculiar habitats as biological model systems. In their 1969 paper in Science, ‘The cave environment’, Poulson and White discussed how caves can be used as natural laboratories in which to study the underlying principles governing the dynamics of more complex environments. Together with other seminal syntheses published at the time, this work contributed to establishing the conceptual foundation for expanding the scope and relevance of cave‐based studies. Fifty years after, the aim of this review is to show why and how caves and other subterranean habitats can be used as eco‐evolutionary laboratories. Recent advances and directions in different areas are provided, encompassing community ecology, trophic‐webs and ecological networks, conservation biology, macroecology and climate change biology. Special emphasis is given to discuss how caves are only part of the extended network of fissures and cracks that permeate most substrates and, thus, their ecological role as habitat islands is critically discussed. Numerous studies have quantified the relative contribution of abiotic, biotic and historical factors in driving species distributions and community turnovers in space and time, from local to regional scales. Conversely, knowledge of macroecological patterns of subterranean organisms at a global scale remains largely elusive, due to major geographical and taxonomical biases. Also, knowledge regarding subterranean trophic webs and the effect of anthropogenic climate change on deep subterranean ecosystems is still limited. In these research fields, the extensive use of novel molecular and statistical tools may hold promise for quickly producing relevant information not accessible hitherto.     

The effects of asymmetric competition on the life history of Trinidadian guppies

The effects of asymmetric interactions on population dynamics has been widely investigated, but there has been little work aimed at understanding how life history parameters like generation time, life expectancy and the variance in lifetime reproductive success are impacted by different types of competition. We develop a new framework for incorporating trait‐mediated density‐dependence into size‐structured models and use Trinidadian guppies to show how different types of competitive interactions impact life history parameters. Our results show the degree of symmetry in competitive interactions can have dramatic effects on the speed of the life history. For some vital rates, shifting the competitive superiority from small to large individuals resulted in a doubling of the generation time. Such large influences of competitive symmetry on the timescale of demographic processes, and hence evolution, highlights the interwoven nature of ecological and evolutionary processes and the importance of density‐dependence in understanding eco‐evolutionary dynamics.     

Individual heterogeneity in life histories and eco‐evolutionary dynamics

Individual heterogeneity in life history shapes eco‐evolutionary processes, and unobserved heterogeneity can affect demographic outputs characterising life history and population dynamical properties. Demographic frameworks like matrix models or integral projection models represent powerful approaches to disentangle mechanisms linking individual life histories and population‐level processes. Recent developments have provided important steps towards their application to study eco‐evolutionary dynamics, but so far individual heterogeneity has largely been ignored. Here, we present a general demographic framework that incorporates individual heterogeneity in a flexible way, by separating static and dynamic traits (discrete or continuous). First, we apply the framework to derive the consequences of ignoring heterogeneity for a range of widely used demographic outputs. A general conclusion is that besides the long‐term growth rate lambda, all parameters can be affected. Second, we discuss how the framework can help advance current demographic models of eco‐evolutionary dynamics, by incorporating individual heterogeneity. For both applications numerical examples are provided, including an empirical example for pike. For instance, we demonstrate that predicted demographic responses to climate warming can be reversed by increased heritability. We discuss how applications of this demographic framework incorporating individual heterogeneity can help answer key biological questions that require a detailed understanding of eco‐evolutionary dynamics.     

Advances in ecological genomics in forest trees and applications to genetic resources conservation and breeding

Forest trees are an unparalleled group of organisms in their combined ecological, economic and societal importance. With widespread distributions, predominantly random mating systems and large population sizes, most tree species harbour extensive genetic variation both within and among populations. At the same time, demographic processes associated with Pleistocene climate oscillations and land‐use change have affected contemporary range‐wide diversity and may impinge on the potential for future adaptation. Understanding how these adaptive and neutral processes have shaped the genomes of trees species is therefore central to their management and conservation. As for many other taxa, the advent of high‐throughput sequencing methods is expected to yield an understanding of the interplay between the genome and environment at a level of detail and depth not possible only a few years ago. An international conference entitled ‘Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics’ was held in May 2016, in Arcachon (France), and brought together forest geneticists with a wide range of research interests to disseminate recent efforts that leverage contemporary genomic tools to probe the population, quantitative and evolutionary genomics of trees. An important goal of the conference was to discuss how such data can be applied to both genome‐enabled breeding and the conservation of forest genetic resources under land use and climate change. Here, we report discoveries presented at the meeting and discuss how the ecological genomic toolkit can be used to address both basic and applied questions in tree biology.     

Quality–quantity trade‐offs drive functional trait evolution in a model microalgal ‘climate change winner’

Phytoplankton are the unicellular photosynthetic microbes that form the base of aquatic ecosystems, and their responses to global change will impact everything from food web dynamics to global nutrient cycles. Some taxa respond to environmental change by increasing population growth rates in the short‐term and are projected to increase in frequency over decades. To gain insight into how these projected ‘climate change winners’ evolve, we grew populations of microalgae in ameliorated environments for several hundred generations. Most populations evolved to allocate a smaller proportion of carbon to growth while increasing their ability to tolerate and metabolise reactive oxygen species (ROS). This trade‐off drives the evolution of traits that underlie the ecological and biogeochemical roles of phytoplankton. This offers evolutionary and a metabolic frameworks for understanding trait evolution in projected ‘climate change winners’ and suggests that short‐term population booms have the potential to be dampened or reversed when environmental amelioration persists.     

Dispersal and species’ responses to climate change

Dispersal is fundamental in determining biodiversity responses to rapid climate change, but recently acquired ecological and evolutionary knowledge is seldom accounted for in either predictive methods or conservation planning. We emphasise the accumulating evidence for direct and indirect impacts of climate change on dispersal. Additionally, evolutionary theory predicts increases in dispersal at expanding range margins, and this has been observed in a number of species. This multitude of ecological and evolutionary processes is likely to lead to complex responses of dispersal to climate change. As a result, improvement of models of species’ range changes will require greater realism in the representation of dispersal. Placing dispersal at the heart of our thinking will facilitate development of conservation strategies that are resilient to climate change, including landscape management and assisted colonisation. Synthesis This article seeks synthesis across the fields of dispersal ecology and evolution, species distribution modelling and conservation biology. Increasing effort focuses on understanding how dispersal influences species' responses to climate change. Importantly, though perhaps not broadly widely‐recognised, species' dispersal characteristics are themselves likely to alter during rapid climate change. We compile evidence for direct and indirect influences that climate change may have on dispersal, some ecological and others evolutionary. We emphasise the need for predictive modelling to account for this dispersal realism and highlight the need for conservation to make better use of our existing knowledge related to dispersal.     

Towards an eco‐phylogenetic framework for infectious disease ecology

Identifying patterns and drivers of infectious disease dynamics across multiple scales is a fundamental challenge for modern science. There is growing awareness that it is necessary to incorporate multi‐host and/or multi‐parasite interactions to understand and predict current and future disease threats better, and new tools are needed to help address this task. Eco‐phylogenetics (phylogenetic community ecology) provides one avenue for exploring multi‐host multi‐parasite systems, yet the incorporation of eco‐phylogenetic concepts and methods into studies of host pathogen dynamics has lagged behind. Eco‐phylogenetics is a transformative approach that uses evolutionary history to infer present‐day dynamics. Here, we present an eco‐phylogenetic framework to reveal insights into parasite communities and infectious disease dynamics across spatial and temporal scales. We illustrate how eco‐phylogenetic methods can help untangle the mechanisms of host–parasite dynamics from individual (e.g. co‐infection) to landscape scales (e.g. parasite/host community structure). An improved ecological understanding of multi‐host and multi‐pathogen dynamics across scales will increase our ability to predict disease threats.     

Opinion: Is gene mapping in wild populations useful for understanding and predicting adaptation to global change?

Changing environmental conditions will inevitably alter selection pressures. Over the long term, populations have to adapt to these altered conditions by evolutionary change to avoid extinction. Quantifying the ‘evolutionary potential’ of populations to predict whether they will be able to adapt fast enough to forecasted changes is crucial to fully assess the threat for biodiversity posed by climate change. Technological advances in sequencing and high‐throughput genotyping have now made genomic studies possible in a wide range of species. Such studies, in theory, allow an unprecedented understanding of the genomics of ecologically relevant traits and thereby a detailed assessment of the population's evolutionary potential. Aimed at a wider audience than only evolutionary geneticists, this paper gives an overview of how gene‐mapping studies have contributed to our understanding and prediction of evolutionary adaptations to climate change, identifies potential reasons why their contribution to understanding adaptation to climate change may remain limited, and highlights approaches to study and predict climate change adaptation that may be more promising, at least in the medium term.     

Recent evolutionary history predicts population but not ecosystem‐level patterns

In the face of rapid anthropogenic environmental change, it is increasingly important to understand how ecological and evolutionary interactions affect the persistence of natural populations. Augmented gene flow has emerged as a potentially effective management strategy to counteract negative consequences of genetic drift and inbreeding depression in small and isolated populations. However, questions remain about the long‐term impacts of augmented gene flow and whether changes in individual and population fitness are reflected in ecosystem structure, potentiating eco‐evolutionary feedbacks. In this study, we used Trinidadian guppies (Poecilia reticulata) in experimental outdoor mesocosms to assess how populations with different recent evolutionary histories responded to a scenario of severe population size reduction followed by expansion in a high‐quality environment. We also investigated how variation in evolutionary history of the focal species affected ecosystem dynamics. We found that evolutionary history (i.e., gene flow vs. no gene flow) consistently predicted variation in individual growth. In addition, gene flow led to faster population growth in populations from one of the two drainages, but did not have measurable impacts on the ecosystem variables we measured: zooplankton density, algal growth, and decomposition rates. Our results suggest that benefits of gene flow may be long‐term and environment‐dependent. Although small in replication and duration, our study highlights the importance of eco‐evolutionary interactions in determining population persistence and sets the stage for future work in this area.     

Understanding extinction debts: spatio–temporal scales,mechanisms and a roadmap for future research

Extinction debt refers to delayed species extinctions expected as a consequence of ecosystem perturbation. Quantifying such extinctions and investigating long‐term consequences of perturbations has proven challenging, because perturbations are not isolated and occur across various spatial and temporal scales, from local habitat losses to global warming. Additionally, the relative importance of eco‐evolutionary processes varies across scales, because levels of ecological organization, i.e. individuals, (meta)populations and (meta)communities, respond hierarchically to perturbations. To summarize our current knowledge of the scales and mechanisms influencing extinction debts, we reviewed recent empirical, theoretical and methodological studies addressing either the spatio–temporal scales of extinction debts or the eco‐evolutionary mechanisms delaying extinctions. Extinction debts were detected across a range of ecosystems and taxonomic groups, with estimates ranging from 9 to 90% of current species richness. The duration over which debts have been sustained varies from 5 to 570 yr, and projections of the total period required to settle a debt can extend to 1000 yr. Reported causes of delayed extinctions are 1) life‐history traits that prolong individual survival, and 2) population and metapopulation dynamics that maintain populations under deteriorated conditions. Other potential factors that may extend survival time such as microevolutionary dynamics, or delayed extinctions of interaction partners, have rarely been analyzed. Therefore, we propose a roadmap for future research with three key avenues: 1) the microevolutionary dynamics of extinction processes, 2) the disjunctive loss of interacting species and 3) the impact of multiple regimes of perturbation on the payment of debts. For their ability to integrate processes occurring at different levels of ecological organization, we highlight mechanistic simulation models as tools to address these knowledge gaps and to deepen our understanding of extinction dynamics.     

Eco-evolutionary dynamics

Evolutionary ecologists and population biologists have recently considered that ecological and evolutionary changes are intimately linked and can occur on the same time-scale. Recent theoretical developments have shown how the feedback between ecological and evolutionary dynamics can be linked, and there are now empirical demonstrations showing that ecological change can lead to rapid evolutionary change. We also have evidence that microevolutionary change can leave an ecological signature. We are at a stage where the integration of ecology and evolution is a necessary step towards major advances in our understanding of the processes that shape and maintain biodiversity. This special feature about ‘eco-evolutionary dynamics’ brings together biologists from empirical and theoretical backgrounds to bridge the gap between ecology and evolution and provide a series of contributions aimed at quantifying the interactions between these fundamental processes.